On this final day of 2024, we bring you a special video edition to help prime your portfolio for 2025.
Welcome to your post-holiday video edition of the 5 Bullets!
As you ease into your day, you won&rsquo;t want to miss some never-before-seen content forecasting one of the biggest investment trends for 2025.
In fact, exactly two weeks ago, Paradigm&rsquo;s top minds convened in Baltimore &mdash; where trading pro and former hedge fund manager Enrique Abeyta issued a monumental New Year&rsquo;s prediction.
He posed one intriguing question: Which Mag 7 mainstay will lose over 30% in market cap?
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In fact, Enrique believes, a major tech player&rsquo;s meteoric rise might be coming to an end.
And he&rsquo;s here to outline how this company will shock investors and financial media alike as he compares this scenario to a well-known plunge during the dot-com crash.
However, Enrique remains optimistic about this tech giant&rsquo;s long-term future, suggesting its value could eventually double. Or even increase tenfold.
Click above to view Enrique&rsquo;s surprise 2025 forecast&hellip; While you enjoy a lazy day in your pajamas (if you&rsquo;re into that sorta thing).
Best regards,
Emily Clancy Paradigm Pressroom&rsquo;s 5 Bullets

Enrique-marketcap

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Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Paradigm’s top minds convened in Baltimore — where trading pro and former hedge fund manager Enrique Abeyta issued a monumental New Year’s prediction. 


Mega-Cap Meltdown in 2025

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Government Creep: In Real-Time
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Britain quietly launched its digital ID scheme today, using 1.8 million veterans as the first test group. The new &ldquo;smartphone-based veteran card&rdquo; is the pilot for a national system meant to replace physical IDs &mdash; part of a plan Labour leader Keir Starmer wants to make standard for all adults in the U.K.
In fact, by 2027, the government plans to move most official credentials &mdash; from driver&rsquo;s licences to background checks &mdash; into the Gov.uk One Login app.
Officials say it&rsquo;s about &ldquo;reducing red tape,&rdquo; but critics warn it&rsquo;s the first step toward a centralized ID system Britain has resisted since Tony Blair&rsquo;s administration. And still resisting&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1KqCWIzvzoDqfsIIHp4jnn/1dfd65b4de2ad88fea7d74f3633b8350/Rupert.png" alt="rupert tweet" width="540px" />
Plus, a 2.9 million-signature petition opposes the rollout as civil liberties advocates warn it could morph into a digital tracking tool. Meanwhile, many veterans are bristling at being used as &ldquo;guinea pigs&rdquo; for this scheme.
&ldquo;But the technology secretary, Liz Kendall, this week complained of &lsquo;scaremongering,&rsquo;&rdquo; The Guardian reports, &ldquo;and said digital IDs would not be used to track citizens and &lsquo;there will be no pooling of people&rsquo;s private information into a single, central dataset.&rsquo;&rdquo;
Although government ministers insist the program is voluntary, a digital ID will be mandatory to prove the &ldquo;right to work&rdquo; by the end of the current parliament (no later than 2029).
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Privacy is on the ropes,&rdquo; warns Paradigm&rsquo;s geopolitics authority Jim Rickards. &ldquo;And governments are working [to] make sure that we have no privacy at all.&rdquo; 
What once sounded like dystopian fiction, Jim says, is now public policy, unfolding step by step under the banner of convenience, security or crisis management.
Jim points to one glaring Trojan horse &mdash; central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Governments claim they will make payments faster and cheaper, but &ldquo;that&rsquo;s just a facade for the real purpose,&rdquo; he says.
Once every transaction is logged in a centralized system, &ldquo;they will know how you spend your money &mdash; what books you buy, what charities you support, what candidates you donate to.&rdquo; With AI monitoring spending patterns, Jim says it becomes easy to &ldquo;profile you and determine if you are an &lsquo;enemy of the people.&rsquo;&rdquo;
He also points to the Quiet Skies program, which &ldquo;was supposed to be an anti-terrorist watch list.&rdquo; But under Biden&rsquo;s administration, Jim says, &ldquo;it morphed into a way to punish political enemies by putting them on watch lists even though there was no indication of any terrorist activity.&rdquo;
And then there&rsquo;s the abuse of state of emergency declarations. &ldquo;Some emergencies are real,&rdquo; Jim concedes, &ldquo;but others are invented to give politicians an excuse to intervene in markets.&rdquo; Declaring an &ldquo;energy emergency&rdquo; could allow officials to impose price controls &mdash; something that&rsquo;s on the agenda in New Jersey, for instance.
&ldquo;Emergencies are being declared,&rdquo; Jim cautions, &ldquo;to give unwarranted power to politicians.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Together, these systems form what Jim calls &ldquo;the architecture of total surveillance&rdquo; &mdash; one that can easily be turned against dissenters or anyone who resists official narratives.
While Jim stresses that escaping the digital dragnet completely &ldquo;is not possible,&rdquo; you can make yourself harder to track:
<ul>
<li>Use cash. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s one way out of digital tracking&rdquo;</li>
<li>Use Faraday sacks. They block GPS and cell signals from your phone and laptop</li>
<li>Drive old cars. &ldquo;New cars are loaded with digital signaling devices,&rdquo; Jim notes</li>
<li>Avoid interstate highways. They&rsquo;re &ldquo;lined with toll cameras and surveillance checkpoints&rdquo;</li>
<li>Reduce license plate exposure. Cover or remove your front plate where legal</li>
<li>Reject cookies, limit apps and skip ride-sharing. The fewer digital footprints, the better.</li>
</ul>
Each step, Jim says, &ldquo;makes it harder for the AI [surveillance] systems to complete your profile&hellip;
&ldquo;This is not a new state of affairs,&rdquo; he adds. &ldquo;Governments have always wanted to control the opinions of their citizens and the availability of information to the public. Total surveillance at all times seems to be the short-term goal,&rdquo; he observes. &ldquo;Enslavement to the government&rsquo;s wishes is the end game.
&ldquo;The First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is intended to prevent this abuse but the fact that the amendment was considered necessary shows that the censorship impulse was not far below the surface even in the early days of the United States.
&ldquo;The key for individuals is to explore ways to preserve privacy and avoid the government net,&rdquo; Jim concludes. &ldquo;That may be one of the most important crisis survival techniques in the years ahead.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Bank Crises Are Like &ldquo;Cockroaches&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />After the collapses of private auto parts companies <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/wall-streets-check-engine-light">First Brands Group</a> and Tricolor Holdings, banks are now admitting losses tied to loan fraud. 
Regional bank Zions Bancorp disclosed it will take a $50 million charge-off linked to two commercial loans that now appear fraudulent. Meanwhile, Western Alliance Bancorp said it has filed suit against a borrower it accuses of fraud.
On the surface, tens of millions may sound small in banking terms; yet shares of regional banks plunged across the board on Thursday. As one risk analyst puts it, investors in financial stocks &ldquo;sell first and ask questions later.&rdquo;
Even Jamie Dimon &mdash; the billionaire CEO of the notoriously bulletproof JPMorgan Chase &mdash; felt the need to sound the alarm. &ldquo;When you see one cockroach, there are probably more,&rdquo; he warns after revealing JPM&rsquo;s $170 million hit tied to Tricolor Holdings.
This all feels familiar, no? It echoes the unraveling of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried&rsquo;s crypto empire that collapsed in November 2022. Within months, a string of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/did-you-say-the-bank-crisis-is-over">California-based banks</a> &mdash; Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic &mdash; fell in rapid succession between March&ndash;May 2023.
While a full-blown crisis isn&rsquo;t guaranteed, even a small shock can ripple through markets.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Case for More Gold Gains
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Gold&rsquo;s historic rally has caught even seasoned investors off guard, but the precious metal may still have plenty of room to run.
According to Evy Hambro, global head of Thematic and Sector Investing at BlackRock, gold&rsquo;s rise above $4,200 per ounce doesn&rsquo;t mean it&rsquo;s overpriced &mdash; and mining equities might offer even more upside.
&ldquo;Are gold companies earning a lot of money right now? Absolutely,&rdquo; Hambro says. &ldquo;The margins are as fantastic as I've ever seen in my career.&rdquo; He acknowledges that miners may be &ldquo;overearning&rdquo; in the short term, but that doesn&rsquo;t mean gold itself is overvalued.
To determine that, Hambro urges investors to look at gold&rsquo;s purchasing power over time. &ldquo;You can buy more low-value goods with gold today than you could in the past, but you can buy less Manhattan property,&rdquo; he explains. &ldquo;So gold has preserved its purchasing power for some items, not for all.&rdquo;
Hambro stresses that momentum matters&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The trend is probably your friend in this environment,&rdquo; he says, noting that currency skepticism could keep driving gold higher. If the world is truly &ldquo;repricing paper currency relative to real assets,&rdquo; Hambro believes the metal could still &ldquo;go a lot higher.&rdquo;
What excites Hambro most is miners&rsquo; profitability. &ldquo;At these prices, these companies are earning enormous margins &mdash; absolutely fabulous margins,&rdquo; he says. Despite these stocks doubling this year, Hambro insists they&rsquo;re still undervalued.
That&rsquo;s because many analysts still model long-term gold prices at $2,200&ndash;2,400 per ounce, &ldquo;a 50% discount to today&rsquo;s futures curve.&rdquo; If prices stay elevated for another year or two, Hambro adds, &ldquo;these companies will way overearn relative to expectations.&rdquo;
To Hambro, this is more than a passing boom. &ldquo;What we&rsquo;re in right now is probably bigger than a cycle,&rdquo; he summarizes. &ldquo;We&rsquo;ve been overprinting paper currency since the 1950s. Eventually, you reach a tipping point &mdash; and maybe we&rsquo;re seeing it now in real assets.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Gold is pulling back today &mdash; down 1.15% to $4,256.50 per ounce. At the same time, the price of silver pulled back bigly: down 4.85% to $50.75.
But Mr. Market seems to be shaking off any bank-crisis concerns. The three major U.S. stock indexes are in the green with the DJIA up almost 200 points to 46,145. The S&amp;P 500 (+0.30%) and tech-loving Nasdaq (+0.20%) are up to 6,645 and 22,610 respectively.
Oil, meanwhile, is struggling to stay in green territory. Crude is up 0.20% to $57.55 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate.
Finally, the crypto market continues to slide. Bitcoin&rsquo;s down 0.90% to $107,175, and Ethereum is down 0.85% to $3,835.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />INTC: Forged in Its Foundry
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;This week, Intel (INTC) achieved what I&rsquo;ve been waiting for: Their 18A manufacturing process entered high-volume production at Fab 52 in Arizona,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s science-and-tech investor Ray Blanco.
&ldquo;Intel&rsquo;s 18A node represents 1.8 nanometer-class technology &mdash; the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing happening on American soil,&rdquo; he says.
&ldquo;It's the first process node in production anywhere that combines gate-all-around transistors with backside power delivery.
&ldquo;These aren't incremental improvements. They're architectural changes that enable better performance and power efficiency.
&ldquo;Panther Lake, Intel's first processor built on 18A, is shipping in Q4 2025,&rdquo; adds Ray. &ldquo;This chip will power next year's AI PCs.
&ldquo;Even better, Intel manufactures 70% of the components in-house rather than outsourcing to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd (TSM). That significantly improves margins if execution holds.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The foundry business remains the question mark. Intel needs external customers to justify the massive capital expenditure required for these advanced fabs,&rdquo; says Ray.
&ldquo;Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are confirmed customers. Talks with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) continue. Nvidia has bought a stake, as has the U.S. government and SoftBank, the majority owner of ARM Holdings.
&ldquo;But external revenue remains minimal so far. Intel's CFO admits &lsquo;committed volume is not significant right now&rsquo; for 18A,&rdquo; Ray says.
&ldquo;Intel could struggle if the foundry business doesn't materialize. But the company is starting to show us that it can execute on advanced manufacturing.
&ldquo;The bottom line: The 18A node hitting volume production, after years of delays on previous nodes, suggests the technical turnaround is finally materializing.
&ldquo;As for the foundry business model,&rdquo; Ray emphasizes, &ldquo;it depends on winning customers.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Day 17 of Government Shutdown
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Is this the bipartisan solution America&rsquo;s been waiting for? 
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2qSGWSC0l7P548g3GuIZLQ/fa22e99f08d6fd88bba24996ea5dfca4/AgoristNexus.png" alt="agorist nexus" width="540px" />
Hard to say if this would count as discretionary spending or public service&hellip;
Take care, reader, and enjoy the weekend!
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

creeps

“Privacy is on the ropes,” warns Jim Rickards. But you can make yourself harder to surveil… 

Government Creeps

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Bailout Buddy System
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> When Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent approved U.S. support for Argentina&rsquo;s collapsing peso, headlines framed it as confidence in &ldquo;market reform.&rdquo; But when you line up the actual events, the story gets much murkier.
Argentina&rsquo;s crisis has been building all year &mdash; inflation above 30%, foreign reserves nearly gone and an IMF rescue from April that didn&rsquo;t stick.
By early September, local elections in Buenos Aires province dealt President Javier Milei&rsquo;s party a blow. Investors panicked, the peso plunged and capital fled the country. But that didn&rsquo;t stop Milei from partying like it was 1989&hellip;

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6Fe4B6LL6ECmdhMKYYpOGZ/51390aef60d4e52ff18bcc6dd42d94b7/Tweet.png" alt="tweet" width="450px" />

Everything about that hairdo just clicked into place&hellip;
Days later &mdash; on Oct. 9 &mdash; Bessent&rsquo;s Treasury announced a $20 billion currency-swap deal with Argentina.
Using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, Washington provided dollar liquidity in exchange for pesos, hoping to halt the free fall. It marked the first time in decades that the U.S. directly intervened in an emerging-market currency.
Behind the scenes, Economy Minister Luis &ldquo;Toto&rdquo; Caputo &mdash; a former Wall Street trader who spent years at JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank before running Argentina&rsquo;s central bank &mdash; helped broker the deal. Without him, the $20 billion rescue likely wouldn&rsquo;t have happened.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> That same week, reports surfaced that hedge-fund billionaire Rob Citrone &mdash; founder of Discovery Capital and Bessent&rsquo;s longtime acquaintance from their Soros Fund Management days &mdash; had been buying Argentine debt at deep discounts.
Several media outlets report Citrone privately urged officials to support Milei&rsquo;s reform agenda. There&rsquo;s no proof of a direct quid pro quo, but the timing certainly raises eyebrows: Citrone was adding to his positions just before the Treasury stepped in.
Bessent defends the move as &ldquo;strategic,&rdquo; saying it would stabilize markets and counter Chinese influence in Latin America. Yet Argentina isn&rsquo;t even among America&rsquo;s top-25 trading partners. The deal instead exposes U.S. taxpayers to currency risk with little visible gain.
Critics from both parties have piled on. Sen. Chuck Grassley calls it a betrayal of &ldquo;America First,&rdquo; while Democrats accuse the administration of finding billions for foreign bailouts even as U.S. families battle inflation.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Then on Tuesday, President Trump welcomed Milei to the White House &mdash; a symbolic show of support with strings attached.
&ldquo;The election is coming up very soon,&rdquo; Trump told reporters. &ldquo;Our approvals are somewhat subject to who wins.&rdquo; If Milei&rsquo;s party loses the midterms, he added, &ldquo;we won&rsquo;t waste our time.&rdquo;
Markets wobbled as investors absorbed Trump&rsquo;s message. What began as a financial rescue now looks like political leverage.
In the end, this isn&rsquo;t about reform or diplomacy. It&rsquo;s about who takes the risk and who gets rescued. In other words, taxpayers carry the downside. Insiders enjoy the upside.
Bill Bonner calls it the &ldquo;corruption cycle&rdquo; &mdash; the slide from rule of law to &ldquo;rule of men,&rdquo; where the well-connected grow richer by steering the system. The Caputo-Bessent-Citrone chain fits that pattern perfectly.
And while Argentina may seem distant, the precedent isn&rsquo;t. Every time Washington props up a foreign currency with your tax dollars, it normalizes bailouts.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Is the Rally Running a Fever?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The stock market wobbled last week after Trump threatened steep new tariffs on China. Stocks fell hard Friday &mdash; the biggest one-day drop since April&rsquo;s &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; sell-off &mdash; before bouncing back when Trump downplayed tension via social media.
Paradigm&rsquo;s trading pro Enrique Abeyta says investors shouldn&rsquo;t obsess over every tweet, but the episode raises a deeper question: &ldquo;If one post can rattle the market, how strong is this rally really?&rdquo;
He points to several cracks beneath the surface. First, the McClellan Summation Index &mdash; a measure of market breadth &mdash; has been drifting lower even as major indexes set new highs. &ldquo;That means fewer stocks are doing the heavy lifting,&rdquo; Enrique says.
Quality stocks are also lagging. Enrique notes that the S&amp;P Quality ETF has underperformed the broader market over the past month &mdash; a sign investors are speculating instead of following fundamentals.
Among small-cap stocks, only 57% of Russell 2000 companies are profitable. &ldquo;Since April&rsquo;s lows,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;the profitable group has gained 22%, while the unprofitable stocks have surged 53%.&rdquo;
Enrique&rsquo;s takeaway: &ldquo;This kind of narrow, speculative rally can keep going for a while,&rdquo; Enrique says, &ldquo;but it rarely ends well.&rdquo;
He&rsquo;s not sounding the alarm yet &mdash; just a warning. &ldquo;Stay disciplined,&rdquo; he adds. &ldquo;In the end, it&rsquo;s not about how much you make, it&rsquo;s how much you keep.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Taking a look at stocks today, the three major indexes are in the green. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is faring best (+0.40%) to 22,775. At the same time, the S&amp;P 500 is up 0.25% to 6,685 while the Big Board is up 0.15% to 46,315.
As for commodities, crude is up 0.30% to $58.45 for a barrel of WTI. Precious metals continue rocking: Gold is up 2% to $4,285.20 per ounce, and silver is up 3.70% to $53.25.
And we have a couple economic numbers to report today&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Mid-Atlantic manufacturing: The closely watched Philly Fed index plunged to -12.8 in October &mdash; a collapse of 36 points from September&rsquo;s 23.2 &mdash; and seriously below the consensus forecast of 8.6. Any reading below zero signals contraction in the region; it&rsquo;s the lowest reading since April</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Homebuilder sentiment: The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index rose to 37 in October, up from 32 in September and beating forecasts for 33. All three components &mdash; current single-family sales, future sales expectations and prospective buyer traffic &mdash; improved. Still, readings remain below the 50 mark that signals optimism. NAHB Chair Buddy Hughes says mortgage rates slipping toward 6.3% have helped, but &ldquo;most home buyers are still on the sidelines, waiting for rates to move lower.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
Finally, at the time of writing, crypto is cratering. Bitcoin&rsquo;s down 1.20%, just under $110K, and Ethereum&rsquo;s down 0.45%, just under $4K.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />&ldquo;True Supply Chain Security&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />At the recent London Metal Exchange seminar, Trafigura CEO Richard Holtum delivered a provocative thesis: &ldquo;Mining is not critical. Processing is.&rdquo;
Holtum&rsquo;s warning was aimed squarely at the West. &ldquo;We&rsquo;re fighting the wrong battle,&rdquo; he says, arguing that governments obsess over new mining permits while China and Indonesia dominate the midstream &mdash; the refining and processing steps that turn ore into usable metals.
&ldquo;True supply chain security,&rdquo; he adds, &ldquo;comes from processing investment, not just extraction.&rdquo;
The numbers bear him out. According to the International Energy Agency, China refines more than 65% of global copper, over 70% of lithium and more than 90% of rare earth elements. Those percentages reveal real leverage &mdash; in the smelters, chemical plants and cathode facilities that sit between mine and market.
Meanwhile, rival energy-and-commodties company Mercuria has shown where profits are flowing. Its metals division has booked about $300 million in 2025 profits, driven by copper arbitrage trades, opportunistic imports of refined cathodes into U.S. ports and a 150-person expansion under former Trafigura executive Kostas Bintas.
Holtum&rsquo;s message reframes the critical-minerals debate: Owning the mine is no longer enough. Without its own refineries, smelters and chemical plants, the West&rsquo;s so-called &ldquo;energy independence&rdquo; could end up powered by someone else&rsquo;s infrastructure.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" /> The Flat Tax Revolution
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />From 2021&ndash;2025, more states switched to a &ldquo;one-rate fits all&rdquo; income tax system than in the entire prior century of tax reform.
Between July 2021 and June 2025, eight states enacted laws to move from graduated income taxes toward flat rates, with six already in effect and two (Kansas and Ohio) scheduled for future rollout.
Arizona led the charge in July 2021. Iowa followed in March 2022; Mississippi and Georgia in April 2022; Idaho in September 2022; Louisiana in December 2024; and Kansas and Ohio adopted their laws in April and June 2025, respectively.
Ohio&rsquo;s flat rate of 2.75% begins January 2026, while Kansas will phase in a 4% rate when revenue and reserve thresholds are met.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2JeVuUxNrvnoYfQci7ObjR/867159b80dfb0e38db8d6afc32c20b64/Screenshot_2025-10-16_at_10.09.48%C3%A2__AM.png" alt="map" width="540px" />

<a href="https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/flat-tax-state-income-tax-reform">Click to view interactive map</a>
Currently, 14 states use a single rate on individual income, and nine states levy no individual income tax on wage income at all. Most states still use multiple tax brackets.
But proponents argue flat taxes bring revenue clarity, discourage politically driven bracket tinkering and even match people&rsquo;s intuitive sense of (more) fair taxation.
&ldquo;A major element of the tax reform debate is the desire for a more simple tax system,&rdquo; the Tax Foundation finds, &ldquo;and the reduced compliance costs that will accompany greater simplicity.&rdquo;
Here&rsquo;s hoping these eight states dare others to abandon complexity and embrace transparency.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Peak Foliage, Peak Frustration
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Every year, excited visitors descend on Vermont&rsquo;s countryside, brimming with hopes of witnessing the riotous colors of maples and birches. 
At first, it seemed harmless. Then the selfie-obsessed influencers rolled in &mdash; blocking narrow roads, wandering into driveways, clogging scenic spots &mdash; and suddenly it felt like leaf season ushered in traffic jams, not serenity.
In response, residents in some towns have voted to close scenic backroads during peak weeks &mdash; rural roads that often lead to farms already being overrun. The message: Cars stay out, viewers stay back.
One Vermont artisan is even making cheeky action figures, mocking influencers and donating part of his proceeds to help pay sheriff&rsquo;s deputies to staff road closures.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/B4wwiVYMiBgfXpwAt9CHD/12098cdfdeffe86ba7b7414fd9f2954c/VermontCollectibles.png" width="450px" />

Source: suspiciousduckvt.com
But here&rsquo;s the thing: New England&rsquo;s economy depends on this beautiful chaos. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that foliage tourism generates about $8 billion in the region each year. So even as locals gripe about clogged dirt roads and trespassers, tourist dollars keep small towns alive.
It&rsquo;s a fine line. Close too many roads and you risk choking off the very lifeblood of local businesses. Leave them open and you&rsquo;ll be waving traffic around your mailbox until Thanksgiving.
This fall? Leaf peepers might get the breathtaking views &mdash; but locals hope they get the message, too.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
P.S. Congratulations to James Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha subscribers who bagged a 562% gain yesterday on a quantum computing play &mdash; on top of a 587% win booked last week! That&rsquo;s two 500%-plus hits in just nine days, thanks to James&rsquo; Blue Spike signal nailing that setup&hellip; You&rsquo;ll be among the first to know when James&rsquo; service opens to new subscribers.

exchange

Using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, Washington provided dollar liquidity in exchange for Argentine pesos. But there are so many strings attached… 

The Bailout Buddy System

Missile

It pains your editor to inform you that we’re hurtling into a new Cuban Missile Crisis — almost 63 years to the day after the last one began.

Doubling Down on Armageddon

Trump-gold

The gold price sits at a record high… and the new boogeyman for Western elites is China.

The Day Trump Confiscates Gold

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />DOD: $1B &ldquo;Birthright&rdquo; Metals Spree
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Judging by two headlines this morning, Birthright Phase II is moving into high gear.
&ldquo;The Pentagon has sought to procure up to $1 billion worth of critical minerals,&rdquo; says the Financial Times &mdash; &ldquo;as part of a global stockpiling spree to counter Chinese dominance of the metals that are essential to defense manufacturers.&rdquo;
There was no grand announcement. Rather, the details emerged in dribs and drabs over the last few months in obscure filings by a Pentagon arm called the Defense Logistics Agency.
The DLA keeps a stockpile of strategic minerals, much like the Department of Energy maintains the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its assets in 2023 totaled $1.3 billion.
From the jump last January, the Trump 47 administration has been keen to beef up this stockpile. As Paradigm&rsquo;s own Jim Rickards sees it, the scheme is part and parcel of the &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; agenda &mdash; in which the White House seeks to exploit the vast mineral bounty on federally owned land, a trove valued as high as $150 trillion.
Among the filings unearthed by the Financial Times &mdash; a potential plan to acquire as much as $245 million of antimony from U.S. Antimony Corp. (UAMY).
Antimony is a grayish metal used in everything from flame retardants to lead-acid batteries. The Pentagon values it for everything from explosives to night-vision goggles. The news has sent UAMY shares shooting 15% higher this morning.
The rare-earth names are also soaring once more after the FT&rsquo;s scoop: USA Rare Earth (USAR) is up nearly 22% on the day. (Paradigm Mastermind Group members got an email this morning urging them to sell half their position for 191% gains.)
Not surprisingly, Washington&rsquo;s competition with Beijing looms large: &ldquo;China&rsquo;s ability to turn off the supply of these critical minerals would have a direct, palpable and adverse effect on U.S. ability to field the kind of high-tech capabilities that we&rsquo;re going to need for any kind of strategic competition or conflict,&rdquo; says Stephanie Barna of the uber-connected D.C. law firm Covington &amp; Burling.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Meanwhile, the biggest of the big banks wants a piece of the &ldquo;Birthright&rdquo; action.
&ldquo;It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing &mdash; all of which are essential for our national security,&rdquo; says a statement from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.
And with that, JPM has launched a 10-year initiative &ldquo;to help finance and take direct stakes in companies it considers crucial to U.S. interests,&rdquo; reports CNBC.
JPM is targeting four sectors&hellip;
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;Defense and aerospace</li>
<li>&lsquo;Frontier&rsquo; technologies such as AI and quantum computing</li>
<li>Energy technology including batteries</li>
<li>Supply chains and advanced manufacturing.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
Within those four sectors are 27 industries where JPM plans to offer consulting, financing and investments &mdash; everything from robotics to space launches to nuclear power.
&ldquo;This new initiative,&rdquo; says Dimon, &ldquo;includes efforts like ensuring reliable access to lifesaving medicines and critical minerals, defending our nation, building energy systems to meet AI-driven demand and advancing technologies like semiconductors and data centers.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Moving On
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Mr. Market is cautiously moving on from Friday&rsquo;s trade freak-out.
When we left you on Friday, Donald Trump rattled markets with a lengthy social media rant in response to China&rsquo;s latest restrictions on the exports of rare earth elements.
He threatened a &ldquo;massive increase&rdquo; in tariffs on China and suggested he might call off his meeting later this month with China&rsquo;s President Xi. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day down 2.7%, the biggest one-day drop since April.
After the market closed, Trump upped the ante &mdash; threatening 100% tariffs on imports from China. In the finance corners of social media, the chatter was about a &ldquo;limit down&rdquo; day when the market opened today.
But then yesterday&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1lTgkOwbqYpBIe1Gfe5pVy/160af029eb0c5ec78ef8dc16ebf9979f/trump_tweet101225.png" alt="Trump Tweet" />
The Trump-Xi meeting? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says it&rsquo;s still on.
As we write this morning, the S&amp;P 500 has recovered nearly half of Friday&rsquo;s losses &mdash; up 1.2% to 6,631. The Dow&rsquo;s gain is weaker, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s stronger.
Hats off to Paradigm&rsquo;s Microcap Millionaire readers: Chris Cimorelli urged them this morning to take 247% gains on Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU). Not bad for six months!
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Why Trump&rsquo;s change of heart? Who knows &mdash; maybe it&rsquo;s the latest trade figures from China.
China&rsquo;s September exports denominated in dollars rose 8.3% year-over-year, according to China&rsquo;s customs agency. That&rsquo;s despite a 27% drop in exports to the United States.
China seems to be getting along just fine even as its trade with the United States plummets.
And why not? By one estimate, China&rsquo;s exports to America make up 1.5% of China&rsquo;s annual economic output. If all those exports went away tomorrow, China&rsquo;s economy could likely withstand the hit.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Silver Squeeze
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Meanwhile in the precious metals space, a silver squeeze is underway &mdash; propelling the white metal&rsquo;s spot price nearly $2 higher to a record $51.86.
&ldquo;Benchmark prices in London have soared to near-unprecedented levels over New York, prompting some traders to book cargo slots on transatlantic flights for silver bars,&rdquo; reports Bloomberg &mdash; &ldquo;an expensive mode of transport typically reserved for gold &mdash; to profit off the massive premiums in London.
&ldquo;Silver lease rates &mdash; which represent the annualized cost of borrowing metal in the London market &mdash; surged to more than 30% on a one-month basis on Friday, creating eye-watering costs for those looking to roll over short positions. Lease rates for gold and palladium also tightened, signaling a broadening pull on London&rsquo;s bullion reserves, following a rush to ship metal to New York earlier this year.&rdquo;
Not to be overlooked, gold is also in record territory &mdash; up $75 to $4,091.
It&rsquo;s a different story for digital nondollar assets. Bitcoin took a dive Friday, coinciding with Trump&rsquo;s China trade threats &mdash; from $122,000 to under $107,000 in a matter of hours. At last check, the flagship crypto has recovered to $114,494. Much of the rest of the crypto space moved in sympathy, Ethereum now $4,119.
Crude is bouncing from Friday&rsquo;s steep sell-off &mdash; up $1.10 as we write to $60 on the nose.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Eurocrats Gone Wild
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />What is it about European busybody bureaucrats and their aversion to long hot showers?
&ldquo;Europeans are at risk of cold showers after materials critical to hot water tanks were not included on an EU list of authorized substances,&rdquo; says the Financial Times &mdash; &ldquo;which was revised as part of the bloc&rsquo;s sprawling environmental legislation.&rdquo;
A while back, the EU wrote up new rules for drinking water &mdash; listing a raft of substances considered safe for household use. Not included on that list are the elements hafnium and zirconium.
Problem: Hafnium and zirconium are wonderfully heat-resistant metals, which makes them essential to hot water storage tanks. And it seems the rules apply to bathing water as much as drinking water.
&ldquo;[Hafnium] is absolutely safe to use&rdquo; for bathing, says Paolo Falcioni of the appliance trade group APPLiA. He warns that if the rules aren&rsquo;t adjusted, about 90% of hot water tanks would no longer be marketable in the EU.
Yes, manufacturers could substitute steel or copper &mdash; but only at four or five times the cost.
The EU is washing its hands of the matter (so to speak), saying it&rsquo;s up to individual member states to raise an objection.
The industry counters by saying that going country-by-country &ldquo;would take too long and they would be forced to make costly changes to their production lines in the interim,&rdquo; according to the FT.
Then again&hellip; maybe the Eurocrats are doing it on purpose?
When European leaders swore off Russian natural gas after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Dutch government implored citizens to limit their showers to five minutes and Germany&rsquo;s economy minister claimed he&rsquo;d &ldquo;drastically reduced&rdquo; his shower time.
On the other hand&hellip; as the saying goes, never attribute to malice what you could otherwise attribute to incompetence.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: The Socialist Playbook
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />One more reader email in the aftermath of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/jimmy-kimmel-and-rush-limbaugh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Jimmy Kimmel incident</a>&hellip;
&ldquo;As an endangered libertarian,&rdquo; writes one of our longtimers, &ldquo;I understand and agree that the tit-for-tat FCC infringement on free speech is only going to degrade rights for all of us, left and right (libertarians don&rsquo;t count because there are only about three of us that survive). The Patriot Act opened the door to this in my opinion.
&ldquo;I do understand the &lsquo;karma is a bitch&rsquo; rationale after the Obama and Biden years were unprecedented in so many dystopian ways from turning the IRS and FBI against conservative groups to arresting people for praying in silence outside an abortion clinic on a public sidewalk. For brevity&rsquo;s sake I&rsquo;ll end there, but the examples are as chilling as they are many.
&ldquo;As a libertarian, though, I wonder if we haven&rsquo;t reached the point where we are about to lose our republic (if you can keep it) to communist and socialist movements that have already taken over our universities and much of the media.
&ldquo;Saul Alinsky&rsquo;s book Rules for Radicals reflected the communist/socialist playbook well with its core tenet of defeating opponents from within by forcing them to adhere to their own laws.
&ldquo;The signs are everywhere that we are slipping into socialism with many &lsquo;stars&rsquo; of the Democratic Party openly praising it. New York is about to elect a socialist.
&ldquo;Numerous assassinations, and attempts, that aim to shut down free speech are also ominous signs of how far our society has fallen. Even our strongest allies like the U.K. seem to be embracing socialist tendencies and are arresting those who say things they don&rsquo;t agree with. I guess that&rsquo;s more civilized than murdering them.
&ldquo;Do we allow our republic to fall without putting up a fight?
&ldquo;I&rsquo;ll assume that all but the extremes of both parties would agree we fight to keep our republic and our rights that are left, but that leaves the all-important question of how.
&ldquo;I have been with you since the days of Agora. I value the vestiges of that heritage that remain and hope for honest discourse on this idea in that tradition.&rdquo;
Dave responds: I dunno. I guess at the moment I&rsquo;m more concerned about Oracle&rsquo;s Larry Ellison heralding the arrival of a surveillance state where &ldquo;citizens will be on their best behavior because we&rsquo;re constantly recording everything that&rsquo;s going on.&rdquo;
And this is the guy who will soon control TikTok, the social media platform used by half of all Americans.
Michael Shellenberger &mdash; the man who coined the term <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-censorship-industrial-complex" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&ldquo;censorship-industrial complex&rdquo;</a> &mdash; took note of Ellison&rsquo;s remarks last month. And he followed them to their logical conclusion.
&ldquo;And after the government combines your personal, banking and voting data under a single digital ID, it will add social media and vaccine information&hellip; The Censorship Industrial Complex was dress rehearsal for digital ID.&rdquo;
Note well: Ellison is another one of these opportunistic Democrat-turned Trumper types. His influence now is such that a recent Wired article described him as a &ldquo;shadow president.&rdquo;
Maybe I&rsquo;m barking up the wrong tree &mdash; but right now I&rsquo;m more concerned about all of that than I am about the Alinsky, Gramsci, Cloward-and-Piven stuff. Admittedly, your mileage may vary&hellip;

fmf-hero-101325

DOD: $1B "Birthright" Metals Spree

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Path to $10K Gold
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The frenzy stage for gold has not yet begun,&rdquo; Jim Rickards declared yesterday before a crowd of 700-plus at the 2025 Paradigm Shift Summit in Nashville.
Precious metals were the object of much buzz among the crowd. Many in the audience found their attention divided &mdash; watching the speakers and taking notes, but at the same time checking their phones to monitor the wild action in gold and silver.
Gold exceeded $4,050 as attendees took their seats&hellip; only to watch it sink more than $100 by midafternoon. (This morning it&rsquo;s back to $3,997.)
Silver pushed past its 1980 and 2011 records, exceeding $51 briefly &mdash; only to plunge below $49. (Now it&rsquo;s approaching $50 again. Life comes at you fast.)
Jim&rsquo;s talk covered much territory &mdash; tariffs and the rumored Mar-a-Lago Accord among other topics &mdash; but the crowd was rapt as he laid out eight factors that will drive gold prices much higher from present levels.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> One of those factors we&rsquo;ll spotlight here: It&rsquo;s part mathematics, part psychology. Jim&rsquo;s laid it out to his readership before, but it&rsquo;s worth a revisit today.
&ldquo;Investors naturally focus on dollar gains in the price of gold,&rdquo; he explains. &ldquo;When gold goes from $1,000 per ounce to $2,000 per ounce, investors cheer the $1,000 gain. The same is true when gold goes from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce. Again, investors pat themselves on the back for another $1,000 per ounce gain.
&ldquo;What investors don&rsquo;t realize (at least initially) is that each $1,000 per ounce gain is easier than the one before.&rdquo;
It comes down to a psychological phenomenon called anchoring. &ldquo;The investor anchors on the amount $1,000 as a fixed gain and treats each such gain the same,&rdquo; says Jim. &ldquo;In pure dollars, they are the same. You make $1,000 per ounce as each benchmark is passed.&rdquo;
But the percentage gain is progressively smaller. Gold moving from $1,000 to $2,000 is a 100% gain &mdash; but gold moving from $3,000 to $4,000 is only a 33% gain.
&ldquo;Because each $1,000 per ounce gain begins from a higher level, the percentage gain associated with each dollar gain is less. The increase from $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce is a heavy lift. The increase from $9,000 to $10,000 per ounce is not much more than a good month&rdquo; &mdash; that is, an 11% jump.
Between the math and the psychology, &ldquo;this combination could propel gold prices to the $10,000 per ounce level in far less time than most analysts believe.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Spooky Synchronicity
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />There was a spooky synchronicity to our energy-and-mining specialist Byron King&rsquo;s talk yesterday.
For weeks he&rsquo;d been planning to discuss the shortages of minerals that are essential in the eyes of Pentagon planners.
Then came the news we mentioned off the top of yesterday&rsquo;s 5 Bullets: The Chinese government imposed steep new export controls on rare-earth elements &mdash; used in everything from smartphones to fighter jets.
Rare earths are the one natural resource China doesn&rsquo;t have to import &mdash; and as Byron showed in this presentation slide, China&rsquo;s dominance of the rare-earth space is &ldquo;uncontested.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3As1HiiOtifPsVbygrTpye/8749cd2d29923887a2939d2622d922ce/REE.png" alt="REE" width="540px" />
As yesterday wore on, the scope of China&rsquo;s new export restrictions came into sharp focus: Any company around the world that wants to sell a product with Chinese rare earths &mdash; even if those rare earths make up as little as 0.1% of the product&rsquo;s value &mdash; must get permission from Beijing.
That&rsquo;s going to be mighty tough sledding for the makers of semiconductors &mdash; which is probably what Beijing had in mind, given Washington&rsquo;s export controls on chips.
Turnabout may or may not be fair play, but turnabout it is.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On this day after Byron&rsquo;s talk, China&rsquo;s rare-earth restrictions have gotten Donald Trump&rsquo;s back up &mdash; and Mr. Market is freaking out.
On social media, Trump threatened a &ldquo;massive increase&rdquo; in tariffs on Chinese goods &mdash; with the current tariff truce between Washington and Beijing set to expire one month from today.
China is &ldquo;becoming very hostile,&rdquo; he posted. &ldquo;I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so.&rdquo;
With that, a stock market that began the day mildly in the green has sunk deep into the red. At last check the S&amp;P 500 is down 1.25% to 6,650. The Dow&rsquo;s losses are narrower, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s steeper. (In contrast, the rare-earth names are ripping higher once again &mdash; USA Rare Earth, for instance, up 18%.)
The market&rsquo;s chill has spread into crude oil as well: A barrel of West Texas Intermediate is down over two bucks to $59.27 &mdash; a five-month low.
Crypto is catching cold, too &mdash; Bitcoin sinking toward $119,000 and Ethereum approaching $4,100.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The big economic number of the day isn&rsquo;t helping matters.
The University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index is still in the dumps at 55.0, far below its over-70 levels at the start of the year.
Often this number is simply a reflection of how well the stock market is doing &mdash; and it&rsquo;s been doing very well until today &mdash; but that&rsquo;s not the case with this month&rsquo;s report. &ldquo;Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers&rsquo; minds,&rdquo; says the Michigan survey team.
<blockquote>➢ Just in: The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release the September inflation numbers on Oct. 24, &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; notwithstanding. Maybe someone read our mention yesterday that without those numbers, the Social Security Administration can&rsquo;t set next year&rsquo;s cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients.</blockquote>
Today&rsquo;s sell-off was bound to happen sooner or later. The market had gone up too far, too fast. Our hedge fund veteran Enrique Abeyta would tell you that Trump&rsquo;s pique with China isn&rsquo;t the reason for today&rsquo;s drop, it&rsquo;s the excuse.
And with that in mind, we move on to Enrique&rsquo;s presentation in Nashville&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Party Like It&rsquo;s 1999
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Be aggressive,&rdquo; our trading pro Enrique Abeyta told the crowd yesterday about the AI bubble. &ldquo;This could last weeks, months, even years.&rdquo;
Late last year, Enrique earned some notoriety for forecasting that Nvidia would lose $1 trillion in market cap &mdash; and in short order, too.
Sure enough, that&rsquo;s exactly what happened between early January and early March &mdash; with more than half of that plunge coming on one day, Jan. 27 amid the freakout over the Chinese AI engine DeepSeek. (Remember that?)
As 2025 wore on, he began warning about an overbuild in AI infrastructure &mdash; an explosion of hardware capacity that will come into use one day, but not right away. He likened it to the overbuild of fiber-optic cable for the internet during the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But while the story is destined to end in tears, the end is not nigh. Enrique says it&rsquo;s time to party like it&rsquo;s 1999.
Here in October 2025, NVDA has rebounded to a record share price and a stupendous $4.75 trillion market cap. As the old Wall Street saying goes, &ldquo;Don&rsquo;t fight the tape.&rdquo;
True to his trader&rsquo;s mentality, Enrique urged the crowd to ride the wave instead. Go for growth and not value: The market is chockablock with companies that can 10X their earnings.
And stay disciplined: Avoid big losses because they&rsquo;ll make you gun-shy, depriving yourself of the chance at big gains. Here&rsquo;s an eye-opening table from his slide deck&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3JKcV2EHO9Ahiglk7MYLbM/00c30ec72b122bb74f59662f6653e777/Loss.png" alt="loss" width="540px" />
He shared several names for the audience&rsquo;s consideration. We&rsquo;ll share one of them here: Coinbase. COIN is sure to prosper as digital assets rally alongside all things tech.
And his overarching guidance: &ldquo;It&rsquo;s not how much you make, it&rsquo;s how much you keep. Plan your trade and trade your plan.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />&ldquo;But Wait, There&rsquo;s More&hellip;&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Really, we&rsquo;ve only scratched the surface with yesterday&rsquo;s presentations at the Paradigm Shift Summit.
Of course our AI and crypto authority James Altucher was a huge draw &mdash; slamming the banks for their outrageous fees and invasions of privacy. For him, the advent of stablecoins can&rsquo;t come soon enough. (And it will.)
&ldquo;Mr. 10X,&rdquo; Chris Cimorelli, laid out three picks with the potential to make 10 times your money over the next 12 months.
The sui generis Mason Sexton described an eerie recurring 36-year pattern in both the markets and global events. As he sees it, 2026 could turn out to be much like 1882 &mdash; a &ldquo;new Gilded Age.&rdquo;
Today&rsquo;s presentations promise to be just as compelling &mdash; capped off with a reprise of our 2018 &ldquo;Bitcoin versus gold&rdquo; debate. Once more Jim Rickards will take up the cause of the Midas metal while James Altucher makes the case for Bitcoin.
Today&rsquo;s crowd is smaller &mdash; because Day 2 of the Summit is limited to an inner circle of our readership.
They&rsquo;re an unusual group, really. They took advantage of a customer service loophole that allows them to access some of our most premium research for free. This loophole allows them access to a host of perks &mdash; including attendance at today&rsquo;s Summit sessions.

Curious? <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2485726">Give this a look</a>.
[Editor&rsquo;s note: If you already subscribe to at least one of our high-end publications, <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2485726">this offer will be of special interest to you</a>.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Gold Rally, Gold Reserves, IRS Enforcement
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Gold&rsquo;s run-up sure has been years in the making!&rdquo; a reader affirms after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/gold-its-not-all-about-trump">Wednesday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;The central banks&rsquo; furious pace of buying gold is one more milepost in a long trend.
&ldquo;We are 11-plus decades into this dollar debasement scheme known as the &lsquo;Federal Reserve Note.&rsquo; It&rsquo;s amazing that it has taken so long to start blinking red on every level, but here we are.
&ldquo;Escalating debt, prices and spending &mdash; as well as big gold/silver corrections &mdash; are baked into fiat currency regimes from the beginning. The inflection points are just a matter of time.
&ldquo;From a technical analysis viewpoint, the current dollar prices of precious metals may have blown through reasonable levels. But considering how badly they have been manipulated, are they really overextended?
&ldquo;Or are they deeply undervalued assets that are finally doing an accounting as they seek their level?
&ldquo;BTW I don&rsquo;t think you get enough credit for the job you have done in past issues of The 5 explaining price suppression of gold and silver. Kudos for that.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Thank you. It was Jim Rickards who opened my eyes to it. I haven&rsquo;t really had occasion to revisit the issue for a long time. <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2019/08/22/deathbed-confession-precious-metals/">The most recent definitive take in our archives</a> goes back six years now &mdash; but it does stand the test of time.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Dave, you and others have reported on more than a few occasions that countries around the globe have looked upon the U.S. government's freezing Russian assets with such dismay as to dump American paper in favor of gold and other securities,&rdquo; writes one of our regulars.
&ldquo;What evidence can you cite to support this? Are there any allies or central banks on record as having stated such?
&ldquo;(And please do not conflate our massive federal debt with your forthcoming explanation, for I believe that is the real reason.)
&ldquo;Still a 5 Fan.&rdquo;
Dave: No, there&rsquo;s no documented instance of, say, the finance minister of East Borkistan telling a press conference, &ldquo;These people in Washington are bats*** crazy with their economic warfare measures. We&rsquo;re dumping our Treasuries and getting more gold.&rdquo;
Then again, if that were to happen, East Borkistan would immediately become a target for regime change, or at least one of those &ldquo;color-coded revolutions,&rdquo; no? Better to keep it all on the QT.
This much is certain: The sudden leap in accumulation of central bank gold reserves occurred in the spring and summer of 2022 after Washington ramped up the sanctions on Russia to an unprecedented degree.
Admittedly, Jim Rickards and I (and many others outside the Paradigm stable) are operating from inference. But I daresay it&rsquo;s informed inference.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On the subject of relaxed IRS enforcement during the &ldquo;partial government shutdown,&rdquo; we heard from an expat reader&hellip;
&ldquo;Dave, you wrote: &lsquo;Then again&hellip; how much of an enforcement mechanism do they have at the moment?&rsquo;
&ldquo;The key words in this phrase are &lsquo;at the moment.&rsquo; Almost certainly, if you fail to file your quarterly payment, nothing will happen immediately, but as the agents return to the office and begin to catch up on all that happened while they were out, you will get a notice, and not only will they demand what they consider their due, but will demand penalties on top of that. Not worth it.&rdquo;
Dave: No doubt. Ditto for accidentally lowballing one&rsquo;s quarterly estimated taxes. Hopefully your wise counsel is not derived from personal experience!
Have a good weekend,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

10k-path

"The frenzy stage for gold has not yet begun,” Jim Rickards declared yesterday before a crowd of 700-plus at the 2025 Paradigm Shift Summit in Nashville.

The Path to $10K Gold

image (139)

China imports almost everything it needs to keep its modern economy running, from crude oil to iron ore — with one crucial exception.

Chinese Squeeze Play

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Gold: It&rsquo;s Not All About Trump
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The spot price of gold has followed gold futures over $4,000 for the first time. To hear the mainstream tell it, it&rsquo;s all about Trumpy-Trump-Trump and how he ruined everything.
It&rsquo;s loud and proud in today&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal &mdash; front page, above the fold&hellip;
<blockquote>&hellip; gold has rocketed higher due in part to anxiety that President Trump could upend the postwar economic order underpinned by the U.S. dollar&hellip;</blockquote>
<blockquote>Trump&rsquo;s attempt to reorder global trade has buoyed prices and upended growth forecasts. White House pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is threatening the independence of one of the financial system&rsquo;s bulwarks.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The international media get a little closer to the truth.
&ldquo;Trump&rsquo;s tariffs and battles against the Federal Reserve are not the only factors driving gold&rsquo;s continued upward trajectory,&rdquo; says an article at Al Jazeera&rsquo;s website.
For starters, Japan&rsquo;s ruling party has a new leader: Sanae Takaichi is on track to become the country&rsquo;s first woman prime minister. She&rsquo;s campaigning on a platform of big deficits, tax cuts and &ldquo;stimulus&rdquo; payments to households.
&ldquo;Her victory,&rdquo; Al Jazeera&rsquo;s Erin Hale writes, &ldquo;upset markets as the yen &mdash; another &lsquo;safe haven asset&rsquo; for some investors &mdash; dropped to a 13-month low on Tuesday, according to the Reuters news agency. Gold, it appears, became a go-to alternative.&rdquo;
And then there&rsquo;s the turmoil in France &mdash; where a never-ending budget crisis has taken down yet another prime minister, this one after only 26 days. France will likely face nonstop turmoil until President Emmanuel Macron&rsquo;s second term is up &mdash; and that&rsquo;s still 18 months away.
France and Germany form the twin pillars of the euro currency &mdash; and Germany&rsquo;s economy has been in the tank for nearly three years. So the euro is no viable alternative to the dollar: Gold wins again.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But this isn&rsquo;t just a 2025 story: Gold&rsquo;s run-up has been years in the making.
Looking back, the logical starting point is February 2022 &mdash; when Russia invaded Ukraine and the Biden administration responded with unprecedented sanctions, freezing the dollar-based assets of Russia&rsquo;s central bank.
At that moment, every government on less-than-friendly terms with Washington came to the same realization: If it can happen to the Russians, it can happen to us too.
It is no coincidence that central bank accumulation of gold leaped to record levels in 2022. The furious pace of buying has continued ever since.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/57G6GhLFwBlKlfMOguqmG1/180019b15f70f77a8bbc258f1f0b31a9/2.6_5Bullets_Chart.png" alt="Central Banks Back Up the Truck" width="540px" />
That&rsquo;s because gold has a unique advantage over other assets, as our Jim Rickards has reminded readers for years: &ldquo;Gold is a physical nondigital asset that cannot be stolen, frozen or seized provided it is in safe storage.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And the gold story is about more than just Washington&rsquo;s adversaries looking out for their own interests since 2022.
Going into the election last year&hellip; your editor ruffled a lot of partisan feathers by saying that no matter who won, the trajectory would be similar: More war, more dollar debasement.
Neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris uttered the term &ldquo;federal spending&rdquo; once during their debate last year.
The burst of spending during the last year of the Trump 45 administration and the first year of the Biden administration was not a one-time response to COVID, after which we went back to &ldquo;normal.&rdquo;
Instead, federal spending was put onto a permanently higher trajectory&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1hahbVFl8Sccb7v2vMMRvg/87c0453ed1fdd25cc06ddefaad7eab7c/5_Bullets_Chart_091124.png" alt="No going back to normal" width="540px" />
The explosion of spending and debt since 2020 resulted in vicious consumer price inflation &mdash; the kind unseen since the 1970s.
The mild inflation we experienced during the 2010s is now a distant memory. <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/declare-your-independence-from-inflation">And as we can&rsquo;t remind you often enough</a>, once inflation sails past 5% &mdash; as it did in 2022 &mdash; it typically takes a decade to get back to &ldquo;normal&rdquo; 2% inflation.
Gold experienced a stupendous rally during the inflationary 1970s &mdash; starting at $35 an ounce in 1971, climaxing in a blow-off top over $800 in January 1980.
As the saying goes, history never repeats exactly &mdash; but it does tend to rhyme. That&rsquo;s why projections of a $15,000 gold price and even <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-usd27-533-gold-solution">Jim Rickards&rsquo; math-driven scenario of $27,533</a> are not only plausible but probable.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> All that said&hellip; in the short term, &ldquo;silver and gold have blown through any and all reasonable levels,&rdquo; our Greg Guenthner advises his Trading Desk readers. &ldquo;To say the metals are &lsquo;overextended&rsquo; is a massive understatement.
&ldquo;So we have a situation where silver and gold are desperately in need of a pullback. On the other hand, the inflation and debasement narratives are only growing.
&ldquo;In my mind, both can be true.
&ldquo;I think we'll see gold and silver higher in the longer term. I don't think it&rsquo;s the blow-off top yet! But from a trading perspective, I need to wait for a better entry. Some form of pullback needs to materialize to allow me to get involved.&rdquo;
But today is not the day. Checking our screens, the spot price of gold has shot up $58 to another record of $4,041. And silver is up an eye-popping $1.47 to $49.22. The 2011 high of $50 is within reach.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Stocks: A November (and December) to Remember
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As for the stock market, &ldquo;There is an extremely high probability that we finish 2025 strong,&rdquo; says our hedge fund veteran Enrique Abeyta.
Yes, stocks are stretched right now and he expects some near-term turbulence&hellip; but history points to strength during the fourth quarter. Check out these charts from Bespoke Investment Group, going back 80 years&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7p8wFGVwLRC9sS9Ihpm2Td/1573c2193a4b6358630dd3676f765b35/PostWW2.png" alt="post wwii" width="540px" />
&ldquo;You can see that since World War II, the S&amp;P 500 has been up almost double the average for all quarters and positive almost 80% of the time,&rdquo; says Enrique. &ldquo;Those are both strong returns and a high probability of a positive outcome.&rdquo;
Another fact to chew on: Whenever the stock market notches a new all-time high in October &mdash; as it&rsquo;s done a handful of times this month &mdash; the S&amp;P 500 ends the fourth quarter in the green 90% of the time.
And the average jump for the quarter is almost 5%. That&rsquo;s according to figures from Carson Investment Research going back to 1950.
What&rsquo;s behind the pattern? Consider this: &ldquo;Most professional money managers are compensated based on their performance at the end of the calendar year,&rdquo; Enrique says.
&ldquo;So they will do everything they can to see the market go higher by year-end.
&ldquo;If a money manager is flat (or down) going into year-end, then they probably won&rsquo;t be aggressive. A money manager who&rsquo;s up double digits, on the other hand, will buy every dip.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Which seems to be what&rsquo;s going on today.
After a down day yesterday the S&amp;P 500 is up over half a percent as we write &mdash; in record territory once more at 6,753. The Dow&rsquo;s gain is weaker, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s stronger.
Among the big movers is AST SpaceMobile &mdash; up 10.2% on news that it will partner with Verizon to provide wireless service via satellite. ASTS is a workhorse holding in James Altucher&rsquo;s entry-level newsletter Altucher&rsquo;s Investment Network &mdash; now up 426% from its original recommendation in January 2021.
<blockquote>➢ Economic number of note: Curiously, the &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; is not affecting the weekly oil inventory figures from the Energy Department. This week&rsquo;s numbers show a drawdown in gasoline and distillates (diesel, fuel oil). With that, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate is up over a buck to $62.85.</blockquote>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Follow-Up: Swimming Naked With First Brands
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> If there&rsquo;s a potential catalyst for short-term turbulence in the stock market, it&rsquo;s the continuing fallout from the bankruptcy of the auto parts maker First Brands.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/wall-streets-check-engine-light">Since we waved the caution flag a week ago today</a>, large players in the finance sector have started disclosing their exposure to First Brands.
The Swiss banking giant UBS was up first. Funds operated by UBS are swimming naked to the tune of $500 million. If The Wall Street Journal is to be believed, much of that exposure is to customers that owe money to First Brands.
Then today Jefferies Financial Group disclosed that funds run by its Point Bonita Capital unit are owed an even bigger sum &mdash; $715 million &mdash; from companies that bought First Brands parts. (The news has sent JEF shares down 1.3% as we write.)
Both companies promise they&rsquo;ll act to enforce investors&rsquo; rights. But considering that First Brands evidently pledged the same invoices more than once as collateral on the company&rsquo;s borrowed money&hellip; that could prove to be an uphill climb.
Look for more confessions in the days to come. One of them might be enough to make the stock market stumble a bit.
Wide-scale systemic risk, you ask? Probably not in the near term &mdash; but Jim Rickards&rsquo; top analyst Dan Amoss is on the lookout for any tremors that might herald a major earthquake.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />A reader passes along today&rsquo;s edition of government-shutdown memeage &mdash; which serves as a valuable reality check.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3Z1pYw4oLclwIXzntkuBfH/57d1ede5cedc9e654c72f7764859ba4f/GovernmentShutdown.png" alt="Government Shutdown" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" /> Mailbag: Kimmel, Again
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I had to give you a dislike on your email,&rdquo; says a late-arriving note from a reader after your editor took on the Disney-Jimmy Kimmel story.
&ldquo;The point of the FCC getting after Jimmy Kimmel is for his lying accusation regarding Charlie Kirk's assassination.
&ldquo;It's one thing to disparage MAGA, but to directly accuse MAGA of shooting Charlie Kirk should not be supported on FCC taxpayer-funded airwaves. Assassination is a serious criminal offense and to accuse a people of that would equate to Hitler blaming the Jews for Germany's problems; therefore it's OK to final solution them.
&ldquo;I think [FCC chair Brendan] Carr was addressing the blasphemous LIE and false accusation. How do you think Mr Trump is winning in court? He's winning because they LIED and defamed him.&nbsp;
&ldquo;It used to be that a news organisation had to tell the truth. Now lies and false accusations are considered free speech AND normal. Those men that you cited should know better.&rdquo;
Dave responds: The issue is not whether Jimmy Kimmel lied. The issue is whether government has a role as the arbiter of truth. The Founders would be appalled at the suggestion it does.
But don&rsquo;t take it from me. Take it from conservative talk-radio host Clay Travis. He partners every weekday on the airwaves with Buck Sexton, editor of the Paradigm newsletter Money &amp; Power.
Mr. Travis says it was wrong a few years ago when Disney cancelled Roseanne Barr&rsquo;s ABC sitcom and when Disney dumped Gina Carano from the streaming series The Mandalorian &mdash; and he says it was wrong for Disney to suspend Kimmel.
&ldquo;I don&rsquo;t like the concept &mdash; as someone who talks for a living &mdash; of any person in any creative industry losing their job for any one thing they say &mdash; Roseanne, Gina or Jimmy,&rdquo; Travis tweeted last month. &ldquo;I think we all lose in creative spaces that sometimes require pushing the speech envelope and taking risks when that standard is applied, right, left or independent politically.
&ldquo;But you can&rsquo;t only notice the issue when it happens to people on the same side of your own politics. Especially since the left created the cancel culture universe &mdash; which I&rsquo;ve consistently opposed my entire career &mdash; and now is upset because they are being held to the standards they created&hellip;
&ldquo;This will probably make me the only person on social media to defend Roseanne, Gina and Jimmy. As someone who people have tried to cancel more than almost anyone in media for having &lsquo;unpopular&rsquo; opinions, I&rsquo;m proud of that.
&ldquo;If your principle shifts based on who has power, you actually have no principles.&rdquo;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
P.S. Mr. Travis and Mr. Sexton are scheduled to appear together tomorrow afternoon during the 2025 Paradigm Shift Summit in Nashville. And Buck Sexton is set to join our rollicking Whiskey Bar roundtable.
Look for highlights from tomorrow&rsquo;s sessions during Friday&rsquo;s 5 Bullets.

Trump-10-8

The spot price of gold has followed gold futures over $4,000 for the first time. To hear the mainstream tell it, it’s all about Trump… 

Gold: It’s Not All About Trump

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Alaska Doctrine
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Another day, another acquisition for Uncle Sam&rsquo;s growing portfolio of natural resources companies.
&ldquo;The U.S. said it will take a 10% stake in Canadian minerals explorer Trilogy Metals Inc. as part of a $35.6 million investment to secure critical energy and mining projects in Alaska,&rdquo; Bloomberg reported late yesterday.
In making the announcement, Donald Trump reversed the Biden administration&rsquo;s decision to nix a highway project called Ambler Road. Construction of Ambler Road will now give Trilogy access to vast deposits of copper, cobalt, gallium and germanium.
If the last of those two sound vaguely familiar, it&rsquo;s because China banned U.S.-bound exports of those metals last year. They&rsquo;re essential for high-end computer chips.
As we write this morning, shares of Trilogy (TMQ) are up 212% from yesterday&rsquo;s close. And a select group of Paradigm readers is very happy.
Our resident geologist Byron King talked up Trilogy last April during a livestream event from Jekyll Island, Georgia. He was certain the Trump administration would approve Ambler Road.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The Trilogy announcement comes only two business days after the rare-earth firm USA Rare Earth (USAR) said it was talking with the Trump administration &mdash; presumably about a similar arrangement.
As mentioned yesterday, members of the Paradigm Mastermind Group are benefiting from that one &mdash; with USAR shares up 89% in two months.
The deals are coming fast and furious since the first one three months ago &mdash; when the Pentagon announced it was taking a 15% stake in the rare-earth company MP Materials. Our readers reaped gains from that one, too.
Credit goes first and foremost to our macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards &mdash; who said in January the Trump administration intends to open up huge swaths of federally owned land to energy and mineral development. Potential value of the resources under that land &mdash; $150 trillion. The &ldquo;American Birthright,&rdquo; Jim called it.
In April, we directed your attention here in these 5 Bullets to a new wrinkle in the Birthright story: Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the U.S. government was looking to invest in mining companies &mdash; as he put it, &ldquo;equity investment in each of these companies that&rsquo;s taking on China in critical minerals.&rdquo;
If you&rsquo;ve missed out on any of these opportunities, don&rsquo;t beat yourself up. There&rsquo;s more where these came from.

<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> That&rsquo;s because as 2025 starts drawing to a close, Jim Rickards says the &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; agenda is moving into Phase II.
During Phase II, the companies whose share prices will benefit most are the ones you couldn&rsquo;t possibly guess at.
That&rsquo;s because they don&rsquo;t extract oil and gas from the ground. Nor do they mine metals.
But under federal law, they could be only days away from becoming the most important stocks in the mining industry &mdash; signing contracts that could net up to $10 million a day.
<a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2484433">And as Jim shows you when you follow this link</a>, there&rsquo;s historical precedent at work &mdash; unleashing the potential to make 200X your money in the next three years. If you missed out on Phase I (or even if you didn&rsquo;t), <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2484433">now&rsquo;s the time to get the scoop on Phase II</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Gold $4K
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />A day after Bitcoin set a record price, gold futures broke over $4,000 for the first time this morning &mdash; in what looks like a rush into non-dollar assets.
&ldquo;People are looking to short the dollar, but they are not quite sure what currency to purchase,&rdquo; says Nicky Shiels of the trading firm and precious metals refinery MKS Pamp. &ldquo;That uncertainty leads you straight to gold,&rdquo; she tells the Financial Times.
Even with the gold price up 50% this year, it&rsquo;s only now that institutional investors are tiptoeing toward gold as a long-term hold &mdash; &ldquo;for the first time in a long time&rdquo; as the head of metals research at Bank of America describes it.
At the same time, the big investment bank Morgan Stanley says it&rsquo;s time to rethink the traditional portfolio allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds &mdash; suggesting that bonds be cut to 20% with the other 20% devoted to the Midas metal.
&ldquo;Gold looks a bit more attractive as a diversifier to long equity position than bonds do,&rdquo; is how Maya Bhandari from Neuberger Berman puts it to the FT.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> All that said, big winners &ldquo;get overbought and are subject to pullbacks,&rdquo; says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta.
On the &ldquo;daily feed&rdquo; section of the Paradigm mobile app, Enrique says the gold price is now 25% above its 200-day moving average. &ldquo;Historically a premium above 20% is short-lived.&rdquo;
There&rsquo;ve been six times when gold has traded 20% or more above the 200 DMA. &ldquo;The average drawdown is 15% over 42 days.&rdquo;
That would send gold down to about $3,370 &mdash; which, we&rsquo;ll point out, was an all-time high only six months ago!
&ldquo;Maybe this time is different?&rdquo; Enrique muses. &ldquo;Earlier this year when gold was over 20% above the 200 DMA, it fell 7.2% in 17 days.&rdquo; A similar move from current levels would bring gold back to $3,675 &mdash; which was a record only last month!
While gold futures crossed $4,000 this morning, the spot price has yet to do the same. At last check, it&rsquo;s at $3,980. Meanwhile, silver has slipped back below $48 for the moment.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As for the stock market, it&rsquo;s taking a rest after a string of all-time closing highs.
The S&amp;P 500 is down about a third of a percent as we write &mdash; 6,715. The Dow is holding up better while the Nasdaq is down over a half percent.
Among the big movers today is the parent firm of the New York Stock Exchange, Atlanta-based Intercontinental Exchange. ICE shares leaped 4.6% in early trade after news the company
plans to invest $2 billion in the predictions site Polymarket.
As the mainstream sees it, ICE&rsquo;s investment could help Polymarket return to the United States. It exited the U.S. market in 2022 under pressure from the Biden administration.
But from our perch, here&rsquo;s what makes this move look singularly savvy: If stock trading is moving in the direction of the blockchain and tokenization, who&rsquo;s going to need exchanges and brokerages? Diversifying into the predictions market assures ICE&rsquo;s long-term survival.
<blockquote>➢ Congratulations are in order once again for Altucher's True Alpha Yesterday they collected 569% gains playing call options on a quantum computing firm. Sorry, this premium advisory is currently closed to new readers, but we&rsquo;ll let you know as soon as it reopens.</blockquote>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Uptober: Mainstream Finance Embraces Crypto
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Uptober is upon us,&rdquo; says Paradigm crypto analyst Chris Campbell.
Bitcoin&rsquo;s price has risen in October for 10 of the last 11 years &mdash; logging an average gain just shy of 20%. Even as the price is pulling back from yesterday&rsquo;s record &mdash; $121,824 as we check our screens &mdash; it&rsquo;s up 6.7% so far this October.
&ldquo;Crypto ETF flows are on fire,&rdquo; Chris says. &ldquo;Last week&rsquo;s numbers: $3.24 billion into Bitcoin, $1.3 billion into Ethereum, $707 million into Solana.&rdquo;
Just as with gold, institutional acceptance is growing. Chris draws a sharp contrast between the evolving views of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon&hellip; and JPM analysts elbow-deep in research.
<blockquote>2020 (analyst): &ldquo;Bitcoin passed its &lsquo;first real stress test.' Higher.&rdquo;</blockquote>
<blockquote>2021 (Dimon): "Bitcoin is worthless..."</blockquote>
<blockquote>2021 (analyst): &ldquo;$146K is possible in coming years&hellip;&rdquo;</blockquote>
<blockquote>2023 (Dimon): "The only use case for it is crime..."</blockquote>
<blockquote>2023 (analyst): &ldquo;Store of value thesis will see BTC price double post-halving.&rdquo;</blockquote>
<blockquote>2025 May (Dimon): "It's not digital gold, but I guess we&rsquo;ll let you buy it. Go at it.&rdquo;</blockquote>
<blockquote>Last week (analyst): &ldquo;Bitcoin could reach $165K based on gold&rsquo;s record run.&rdquo;</blockquote>
As Chris sums up, &ldquo;JPMorgan&rsquo;s Bitcoin stance is basically: Dad hates it, but Mom started a secret stash in the attic years ago.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />More institutional acceptance: Standard &amp; Poor&rsquo;s just announced it&rsquo;s launching a new crypto index.
The S&amp;P Digital Markets 50 will comprise 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 stocks tied to crypto.
&ldquo;Historically,&rdquo; Chris observes, &ldquo;once assets become benchmarked, institutional inflows multiply. (ETFs give capital access. Indexes give capital permission.)&rdquo;
No, S&amp;P has not yet said which cryptos and stocks will go into the index. But Chris will engage in some informed speculation &mdash; and suss out some of the biggest potential winners &mdash; in today&rsquo;s issue of our sister e-letter Altucher Confidential. Watch your inbox.
[Editor&rsquo;s note: As with Enrique&rsquo;s gold observations, Chris&rsquo; crypto insights today come courtesy of the &ldquo;daily feed&rdquo; section of the Paradigm Press mobile app. The app is ready for download right now from both Apple&rsquo;s App Store and Google&rsquo;s Play Store. Enjoy!]
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief, Shutdown Edition
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Here&rsquo;s a double dose of shutdown memory today&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3jBrGAEpbZSVZvFksBkPZj/74807ce964ee0dac010be5cf6c3c55d8/working.png" alt="we are going to stop working" width="540px" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3SVf9Me66XdBAyhDNWxe52/47615df24bd1cda6d2a6574c81f8fea3/shutdown.png" alt="shutdown" width="540px" />
Well yes, but TSA employees are working without pay until the shutdown is over, at which time they&rsquo;ll get back pay.
So far there are few reports of TSA employees calling in &ldquo;sick&rdquo;&hellip; but it&rsquo;s a different story for air traffic controllers.
&ldquo;Twelve Federal Aviation Administration facilities saw staffing shortages Monday night,&rdquo; says CNN. &ldquo;The control towers in Burbank, Phoenix and Denver had so-called &lsquo;staffing triggers&rsquo; reported in the public FAA operations plan. Other facilities that handle air traffic around airports in Newark, New Jersey; Jacksonville, Florida; Chicago; Washington, D.C.; and Indianapolis also were short staffed.&rdquo;
This is no small consideration for the hundreds of our readers making their way to Nashville for the 2025 Paradigm Shift Summit starting Thursday.
To say nothing of the Paradigm editors who expect to appear on stage! Fingers crossed&hellip;
(If you&rsquo;re not joining our team in Nashville, look for conference highlights here in 5 Bullets starting Friday.)
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Maxwell Apartment, Dollar Coins
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;OMG, do large companies no longer do any research in their marketing?&rdquo; a reader writes in response to our item about Maxwell House downsizing to &ldquo;Maxwell Apartment.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Or do these marketing departments just charge forward with major rebrandings, come hell or high water? Has wokeness overtaken sane thinking?
&ldquo;Remember Cracker Barrel, you dummies&hellip;&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On the subject of dollar coins, broached <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/americas-jv-with-xi">in yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>, a member of our Omega Wealth Circle writes&hellip;
&ldquo;I live in Ecuador, which dollarized its economy in 2000, after they blew up their local currency.
&ldquo;Here it is largely a cash economy, and dollar coins are in wide circulation, to the point that rarely do you see a $1 bill, and whenever anyone gets one, they try to spend it ASAP.
&ldquo;I have (just checked) four dollar coins in my pocket right now, and several rolls more on the shelf as these are spent. Even down here, where a dollar goes further than in the U.S., it just feels right that it is pocket change and I only reach for my wallet for bills if $5 and up.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Depending on who you want to believe, the reason dollar coins haven&rsquo;t caught on stateside is that $1 bills remain in circulation.
Which I suppose makes sense. When I lived in Buffalo during the late 1990s I&rsquo;d visit Ontario every so often to go hiking. Canada did away with $1 bills a few years earlier. I rather enjoyed the $1 coin (the &ldquo;loonie&rdquo;) and the $2 coin (the &ldquo;toonie&rdquo;).
Of course, that was a time when electronic payments were less common&hellip; and fiat currency went further than it does now!
(Oh, and you didn&rsquo;t need a passport to cross between Canada and the United States, either&hellip;)
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Alaska

Another day, another acquisition for Uncle Sam’s growing portfolio of natural resources companies.

The Alaska Doctrine

handshake

Donald Trump’s trade policy is set to face its biggest test yet over the next five weeks.