On this final day of 2024, we bring you a special video edition to help prime your portfolio for 2025.
Welcome to your post-holiday video edition of the 5 Bullets!
As you ease into your day, you won&rsquo;t want to miss some never-before-seen content forecasting one of the biggest investment trends for 2025.
In fact, exactly two weeks ago, Paradigm&rsquo;s top minds convened in Baltimore &mdash; where trading pro and former hedge fund manager Enrique Abeyta issued a monumental New Year&rsquo;s prediction.
He posed one intriguing question: Which Mag 7 mainstay will lose over 30% in market cap?
<script src="https://fast.wistia.com/embed/medias/78b3ao61gj.jsonp" async=""></script>
<script src="https://fast.wistia.com/assets/external/E-v1.js" async=""></script>
<div class="wistia_responsive_padding" style="padding: 54.58% 0 0 0; position: relative;">
<div class="wistia_responsive_wrapper" style="height: 100%; left: 0; position: absolute; top: 0; width: 100%;">
<div class="wistia_embed wistia_async_78b3ao61gj videoFoam=true" style="height: 100%; position: relative; width: 100%;">
<div class="wistia_swatch" style="height: 100%; left: 0; opacity: 0; overflow: hidden; position: absolute; top: 0; transition: opacity 200ms; width: 100%;"><img style="filter: blur(5px); height: 100%; object-fit: contain; width: 100%;" src="https://fast.wistia.com/embed/medias/78b3ao61gj/swatch" alt="" aria-hidden="true" /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
In fact, Enrique believes, a major tech player&rsquo;s meteoric rise might be coming to an end.
And he&rsquo;s here to outline how this company will shock investors and financial media alike as he compares this scenario to a well-known plunge during the dot-com crash.
However, Enrique remains optimistic about this tech giant&rsquo;s long-term future, suggesting its value could eventually double. Or even increase tenfold.
Click above to view Enrique&rsquo;s surprise 2025 forecast&hellip; While you enjoy a lazy day in your pajamas (if you&rsquo;re into that sorta thing).
Best regards,
Emily Clancy Paradigm Pressroom&rsquo;s 5 Bullets

Enrique-marketcap

mobile masthead 5MIN

Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Paradigm’s top minds convened in Baltimore — where trading pro and former hedge fund manager Enrique Abeyta issued a monumental New Year’s prediction. 


Mega-Cap Meltdown in 2025

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Blessed Are the Inept
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Now that Mamdani&rsquo;s actually won, the No. 1 question I&rsquo;ve been getting is: &lsquo;What happens to New York?&rsquo;&rdquo; recounts Buck Sexton &mdash; the No. 1 voice in conservative talk radio and former CIA officer.
Before answering that, he offers some context. Buck and his two brothers grew up in the city, but all eventually migrated south during the pandemic.
&ldquo;Mason was the first one to make the move, the original pioneer, while the rest of us were still trying to convince ourselves that outdoor dining in February counted as &lsquo;normal life.&rsquo; Then our other brother followed.&rdquo;
Buck stayed a bit longer&mdash;&ldquo;not because I was clinging to the city,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;but because I still had routines, work and family there. Our parents are still in New York.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not like I disappeared into the Everglades and swore an oath to Publix,&rdquo; he adds. The family already had &ldquo;a foot in Florida before the pandemic,&rdquo; and the breakdown during COVID only sped things up.
Buck insists, however, the virus didn&rsquo;t &ldquo;ruin&rdquo; New York. &ldquo;COVID just happened to hit while the city was already weakened,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;The real damage was eight years of Bill de Blasio taking the safest, most functional version of New York in modern history and slowly dulling every edge of it.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;People forget the New York that de Blasio inherited was probably the best city in America, and I would argue the world, bar none,&rdquo; says Buck.
For the first few years of his first term as mayor, Buck notes, de Blasio &ldquo;tried to tell all of us how safe the city was, how much investment had gone into making NYC better.&rdquo; But it took half a decade before people realized &ldquo;how much he&rsquo;d actually broken.&rdquo; By then, Buck says, &ldquo;the damage had already spread.&rdquo;
He describes de Blasio&rsquo;s daily routine as a kind of metaphor for the whole era: &ldquo;He&rsquo;d roll out of bed late, ease into the day, take a chauffeured SUV 90 minutes to the YMCA in Brooklyn, work out, ride 90 minutes back, have lunch, take a nap and finally &lsquo;start working&rsquo; around 2:30 p.m. His staff used to joke that if you got an hour of his focus, you won the lottery.&rdquo;
The saving grace, Buck and Mason agree, was that &ldquo;his laziness kept him from doing even more harm.&rdquo; Which brings them to the next act in New York&rsquo;s story&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Mamdani is a different kind of problem. He has the ideology, the slogans and the activist energy, but none of the operational experience,&rdquo; Buck says.
&ldquo;De Blasio pulled the wrong levers. Mamdani doesn&rsquo;t even know where the levers are.&rdquo;
That lack of experience might paradoxically protect the city. &ldquo;He&rsquo;s not going to be able to successfully transform the city into some sweeping political experiment,&rdquo; Buck says. &ldquo;[Mamdani] probably won&rsquo;t be able to do much of anything at all. And in a backward way, that might actually be the city&rsquo;s best defense.&rdquo;
A recent poll claims that 700,000 New Yorkers plan to leave because Mamdani won. &ldquo;No, they won&rsquo;t,&rdquo; Buck says flatly. &ldquo;The people who were going to leave already left.&rdquo;
States including Florida and Texas, for instance, &ldquo;have already absorbed the bulk of the COVID-era migration.&rdquo; The ones with &ldquo;the flexibility, the money and the motivation are [already] gone.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/23ye716hxa6qH4TElZutH7/f5ff11acc332c86c46ff55c54634fd40/fmf_uhaul.png" alt="uhaul pricing" />
A pandemic-era reminder&hellip; 
Paradigm&rsquo;s iconoclast investor and lifelong NYC resident James Altucher fled the city in 2020. He called the pandemic&rsquo;s devastating effect on the city, in fact, <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2020/08/18/worse-than-9-11/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">worse than 9/11.</a>
If another &ldquo;50,000&ndash;100,000 high-earning, tax-contributing, remote-capable people&rdquo; decide to move out of NYC, Buck says, that would matter &ldquo;a lot.&rdquo; New York, he explains, &ldquo;runs on a very specific layer of the tax base.&rdquo;
Next, Buck assesses 34-year-old Mamdani himself&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Zohran Mamdani [has] never run anything. His resume is panels, hashtags and viral videos. He&rsquo;s no Elon Musk&hellip; He&rsquo;s not even an Eric Adams.&rdquo;
Mason Sexton adds: &ldquo;He hasn&rsquo;t even tried anything. There&rsquo;s no track record. Good or bad. Just nothing.&rdquo;
And Buck doesn&rsquo;t expect that to change. &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t see him up at sunrise with a crime-plan binder and a task force,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;I see a lot of press conferences, policies by vibes and endless talk about &lsquo;justice&rsquo; and &lsquo;community.&rsquo; Not a lot of tackling core issues.&rdquo;
To Buck&rsquo;s way of thinking, &ldquo;New York&rsquo;s biggest threat has always been a competent ideologue. Mamdani is an incompetent ideologue. And at this stage, that may actually be mercy.&rdquo;
Forecasting the year ahead, Buck says New York &ldquo;isn&rsquo;t going to be a wasteland, and it&rsquo;s not going to be a comeback story either.&rdquo; It&rsquo;ll look &ldquo;a lot like it does right now &mdash; just a little more worn down around the edges.&rdquo;
Mason agrees: &ldquo;It may not be the end of the world. Think San Francisco a few years ago &mdash; more crime, more homeless, more dysfunction. [Mamdani] should be somewhat capped in terms of what he can accomplish by the state.&rdquo;
That, Buck says, is the most realistic outlook: The city &ldquo;will keep going, just not upward.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Buck and his family have deep roots in NYC. &ldquo;We don&rsquo;t want it to fail. But under Mamdani? It&rsquo;s not moving forward. It&rsquo;s just drifting,&rdquo; he says.
The serious damage &mdash; the crime spike, the empty offices, the population shift &mdash; &ldquo;already happened on de Blasio&rsquo;s watch, long before Mamdani showed up,&rdquo; Buck says.
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s the silver lining.&rdquo; Meaning, &ldquo;the only real danger now would be competence,&rdquo; he notes. &ldquo;And luckily for New York, that&rsquo;s not what we&rsquo;re dealing with.&rdquo;
&ldquo;The biggest thing working in New York&rsquo;s favor right now,&rdquo; he concludes, &ldquo;is that Mamdani isn&rsquo;t smart enough, experienced enough or disciplined enough to implement the things he talks about.
&ldquo;He can&rsquo;t ruin the city&hellip; He doesn&rsquo;t know how the city works. And in 2025, that might be the closest thing New York gets to hope.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Fed&rsquo;s Family Feud
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The Fed&rsquo;s favorite mouthpiece, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, reports that Powell&rsquo;s Fed is facing one of its sharpest internal rifts in years. 
Specifically, policymakers are split over which danger looms larger &mdash; persistent inflation or a weakening labor market. That divide has &ldquo;complicated what looked like a workable plan less than two months ago,&rdquo; Timiraos says.
When the Fed cut rates in September and again in October, a slim majority expected to continue easing through year-end. But hawks pushed back hard, arguing further cuts risk reigniting inflation. Powell, trying to hold the center, said after the October meeting that another December cut was &ldquo;far from&rdquo; certain.
The debate, Timiraos notes, reflects &ldquo;two contingents growing louder and a center with less conviction.&rdquo; (At least, someone wants that narrative put out there; per usual, Timiraos is obliging.)
The Fed is far from unified &mdash; and that means markets, businesses and households can expect less clarity and more volatility, especially as the federal shutdown&rsquo;s data blackout comes to an end.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The House will return to Washington to vote on the bill to reopen the federal government after a record-long shutdown,&rdquo; The Hill reports today.
At the time of writing, the stock market&rsquo;s not reacting favorably. The Dow &mdash; up over 300 points to 48,250 &mdash; is the only major U.S. index currently in the green. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 500 is down 0.15% to 6,835, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 0.65% to 23,305.
Turning to the commodities complex, oil&rsquo;s getting hammered: down almost 4% to $58.60 for a barrel of West Texas crude. Precious metals, however, are rallying. Gold&rsquo;s up 2% to $4,200 per ounce; silver&rsquo;s up almost 5%, above $53.
Finally, the crypto market&rsquo;s in deep red territory. Bitcoin&rsquo;s down 1.25% to $101,600 while Ethereum&rsquo;s down 1.10% to $3,400.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Hemp Hijacks Capitol Hill
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />After weeks of gridlock, Congress appears ready to reopen the government &mdash; except for one unexpected snag: hemp.
Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is refusing to fast-track the funding deal because of a clause that, he says, targets his state&rsquo;s hemp businesses.
The language, buried in the Agriculture Department section, would close the &ldquo;hemp loophole&rdquo; created by the 2018 Farm Bill &mdash; the gap that let companies sell hemp-derived THC products (Delta-8, Delta-9 and others) nationwide so long as they met the law&rsquo;s hemp definition.
Delta-8 and Delta-9 are both forms of THC, the psychoactive compound in cannabis. Delta-9 is the traditional, more potent form found in marijuana; Delta-8 occurs in hemp only in trace amounts and is typically synthesized from CBD.
Under current federal law, hemp products are legal if they contain less than 0.3% Delta-9 THC by dry weight. The new proposal would instead cap total THC at just 0.4 milligrams per container &mdash; a shift that would effectively wipe out most hemp-derived gummies, vapes and oils now on the market.
The regulated marijuana industry views the hemp-derived THC market as a competitive threat because it bypasses many of the taxes, licensing requirements and regulatory burdens that apply to state-licensed cannabis operators. (Think of products sold in gas stations or online, for instance.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Paul argues the change unfairly punishes Kentucky farmers and the businesses that turn their crops into hemp-based oils and products. 
His office says he wants the government reopened &ldquo;without delay,&rdquo; but objects to provisions that &ldquo;unfairly target Kentucky&rsquo;s hemp industry.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6oLldPc16ZTbcOYiyUPHj0/2eb7a2d6b85eeecd31893c51aaca77b0/randPaulX.png" alt="Rand Paul X" />
He can&rsquo;t stop the bill outright, but he can slow it for days by forcing procedural votes. Meanwhile, the White House says President Trump &ldquo;supports the current language in the bill on hemp.&rdquo;
Paul blames fellow Kentuckian Mitch McConnell for the restriction. McConnell, who championed hemp in 2018, now says legalization produced &ldquo;an unintended consequence&rdquo; &mdash; a booming market in supposedly intoxicating hemp derivatives, estimated around $28 billion.
Support for a crackdown is broad: A bipartisan coalition of 38 state attorneys general has urged Congress to close the loophole. As Sen. Susan Collins (ME-R) puts it, there&rsquo;s &ldquo;strong support&rdquo; to tighten the law across red and blue states alike.
Hemp &mdash; not spending &mdash; is the wrinkle keeping Capitol Hill tied in knots. For now&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Fab That Fractured Europe
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In late September, the Dutch government invoked a Cold War-era emergency law to seize control of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/ground-zero-of-techs-cold-war" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nexperia,</a> a semiconductor company based in the Netherlands but owned by China&rsquo;s Wingtech Technology. 
Officials cited &ldquo;serious governance shortcomings and actions within Nexperia&rdquo; that &ldquo;posed a threat&rdquo; to national security and the continuity of critical technology supplies.
Beijing immediately condemned the move as political interference. In retaliation, China froze exports of Nexperia chips from its domestic facilities to Europe and halted shipments of key manufacturing materials to the Netherlands. The disruption alarmed automakers already reeling from U.S. tariffs and Chinese curbs on rare earth exports.
Nexperia produces so-called &ldquo;legacy&rdquo; semiconductors used in vehicle systems such as airbags, power steering and central locking. About 70&ndash;80% of its European-made chips are sent to China for processing before being re-exported &mdash; an exposure that left Europe&rsquo;s auto sector vulnerable when Beijing turned off the tap.
By October, Volvo, Volkswagen and Jaguar Land Rover warned production shutdowns were imminent, and the European Automobile Manufacturers&rsquo; Association said supplies could run out within weeks.
Amid mounting pressure, China eased restrictions in early November, granting export exemptions for &ldquo;civilian use.&rdquo; EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said Brussels was working toward a &ldquo;lasting, stable, predictable framework&rdquo; to restore chip flows.
The temporary truce coincided with a broader U.S.&ndash;China deal reached by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to suspend tariffs and rare-earth bans for one year.
Yet experts warn the Nexperia episode has exposed Europe&rsquo;s dependence on Chinese manufacturing and the fragility of global supply chains. &ldquo;This is what decoupling actually looks like,&rdquo; says Tom Nunlist of Trivium China. &ldquo;And it&rsquo;s a huge mess.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />The CBOE Flip
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The former Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Global Markets address is trading in its analog soul for a server farm future. 
The behemoth at 400 S. LaSalle, once buzzing with traders, is on its way to becoming a 33-megawatt data center &mdash; a makeover fueled by today&rsquo;s relentless demand for digital infrastructure.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3VeoL0xPrqeOzDDEoW3qYf/9579c878783bbc0cb6498709012568fc/fmf_cboe.jpg" alt="CBOE Building" />
Courtesy: LoopNet
Turns out the empty trading floors and thick wiring, engineered decades ago for split-second trades, are ideal for racks of humming servers instead of shouting brokers.
Legacy Investing, the new owner, plans to have the facility online by the end of next year, transforming a monument to finance into a tech-heavy digital hub.
What makes urban centers appealing is their proximity to power and network connectivity &mdash; absolutely crucial for latency-sensitive trades, streaming and high-frequency futures. Power is in such short supply nationwide that simply boosting capacity made the property worth triple its prior sale price.
This isn&rsquo;t just a real estate flip: It&rsquo;s a sign of the times, with AI and the cloud fueling demand even for downtown spaces.

fmf hero 111225

Buck Sexton: NYC’s Uncertain Future

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />These Numbers Shouldn&rsquo;t Be Rising
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Amid the &ldquo;partial government shutdown,&rdquo; we&rsquo;ve had no official job numbers since August &mdash; and the official inflation numbers won&rsquo;t arrive on schedule this Thursday.
So what&rsquo;s the state of &ldquo;the economy&rdquo; right now, really?
In the first place, we&rsquo;ll remind you that official economic statistics are mostly bunk. Both the job numbers and the inflation numbers are gamed to make matters look better than they really are. If government economists used the same yardsticks they used 50 years ago, we&rsquo;d be looking at inflation north of 10% and unemployment would be on the order of 25%.
But that&rsquo;s a story for another day. What can we deduce from the figures we have available to work with?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In the first place, it&rsquo;s clear that inflation is moving in the wrong direction.
Shutdown notwithstanding, the Bureau of Labor Statistics cobbled together a September consumer price index released back on Oct. 24. Really there was no choice: The 2026 Social Security cost-of-living increases hinged on those numbers.
With that release, the official inflation rate is 3.0%.
That&rsquo;s way better than the 9% peak in the summer of 2022. But it&rsquo;s also up substantially since last spring, advancing almost as steeply as it did in the final months of 2024.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5V8myrCzdIvEmpYZxc1mFf/a2aa473d6a6f1b0cbc9008c5fd2a7053/5Bullets_Inflation.png" alt="Moving in the Wrong Direction" />
&ldquo;There&rsquo;s nothing benign or comfortable about 3.0% inflation,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards.
&ldquo;That rate will cut the value of the dollar in half in 24 years. It will cut it in half again in another 24 years. That means in a 48-year working career from age 17 to age 65, the dollar will lose 75% of its purchasing power. What are you working for unless wages are going up faster than inflation is devaluing the dollar?&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Unfortunately, &ldquo;the news on the unemployment front is even worse,&rdquo; says Jim.
Granted, the figures are woefully out of date by now. But even the available figures are concerning &mdash; an official unemployment rate of 4.1% in June, 4.2% in July and 4.3% in August.
That&rsquo;s still low by historical standards. But it&rsquo;s higher than at any time in 2023. And like inflation, it&rsquo;s trending in the wrong direction.
There&rsquo;s a handful of private-sector figures to work with. None of them is encouraging. The payroll firm ADP says employers added a meager 10,000 jobs during August, September and October.
And as mentioned here last week, the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas finds that employers cut over 153,000 jobs during October &mdash; the worst October on record since 2003.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Under the circumstances, Jim believes the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark fed funds rate again at its next meeting a month from now.
Accelerating inflation notwithstanding, the Fed is putting greater emphasis right now on the weakening job market.
Wall Street might interpret rate cuts as &ldquo;stimulative.&rdquo; But as Jim sees it, it&rsquo;s bad news. Markets are already driving many short-term interest rates lower without the Fed&rsquo;s help. That&rsquo;s a sign &ldquo;that growth is slowing, and the U.S. economy is heading into a recession (at worst) or sliding sideways (at best).&rdquo;
Jim is on guard for the stock market to react badly &mdash; which might easily drive a fear trade into gold. As we keep emphasizing, Jim recommends keeping 10% of your investable assets in physical gold.
Yes, gold prices are up substantially from where they were at the start of the year. But if you&rsquo;re not at 10% yet, it&rsquo;s still not too late to start. Use dollar-cost averaging: Buy a little bit every week or every month to take advantage of periodic price dips as you work your way up to 10%.
That way you&rsquo;re set no matter what the stock market does.
And on that score&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Post-Shutdown Stock Market
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The shutdown isn&rsquo;t over, but it&rsquo;s closer to being over now than at any time in the last 42 days &mdash; which historically bodes well for the stock market.
Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta has been adamant in recent days about how the end of a government shutdown typically signals a stock market rally.
On the Paradigm mobile app today, Enrique shared this chart from Nautilus research showing the post-shutdown performance of the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite going back to 1981. The little green circles indicate when each shutdown ended.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5rtxaJpgYtCNrddoBbG4HI/7c3f21c64f3a652f39e2cf4600d4247f/dailyfeed-111125-4.png" alt="Government Shutdown End Dates" />
The typical outcome is &ldquo;higher 90% of the time six months and one year later &mdash; with strong double-digit returns.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />But the shutdown&rsquo;s not over yet &mdash; and both the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq are in the red today.
Nothing major: At last check the S&amp;P remains over 6,800 and the Nasdaq is well over 23,000. And the Dow has rallied nearly a half percent.
Congratulations are in order for Rickards&rsquo; Strategic Intelligence readers, who collected nearly 70% gains playing Intel in just over a year. &ldquo;Intel is sensitive to the economy. Its stock could correct due to rising recession risks,&rdquo; counsels analyst Dan Amoss.
Precious metals are digesting yesterday&rsquo;s big gains &mdash; gold still over $4,100 and silver comfortably above $50. Crude has rallied over a buck to $61.18.
But crypto is slumping, Bitcoin sinking toward $103,000 and Ethereum under $3,500.
Only one economic number of note came out today &mdash; and it merits a bullet of its own. Read on&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Why Is Good Help So Hard to Find?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Aside from rising jobless rates, something truly whacked-out is going on in the U.S. job market.
This morning the National Federation of Independent Business issued its monthly Small Business Optimism index. This survey, conducted regularly since 1973, offers a valuable snapshot into what&rsquo;s happening in Main Street America.
The headline number is a snooze: Optimism dipped from 98.8 in September to 98.2 in October &mdash; still slightly higher than the survey&rsquo;s long-term average. &ldquo;Owners report lower sales and reduced profits,&rdquo; says NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg.
Often the most eye-opening part of the survey is where owners are asked to identify their &ldquo;single most important problem&rdquo; from a list of 10 possibilities. At various times this year, the list has been topped by taxes, inflation and &ldquo;quality of labor.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In October, &ldquo;quality of labor&rdquo; shot up the charts. For many small-business owners, good help isn&rsquo;t just hard to find, it&rsquo;s nearly impossible.
Quality of labor was cited by 27% of respondents &mdash; up dramatically from 18% the month before. It hasn&rsquo;t been this high on the list since 29% in November 2021, the worst of the post-pandemic labor shortage.
Nothing else came close &mdash; taxes cited by 16%, inflation by 12%, poor sales by 10%.
Some detail the NFIB&rsquo;s report: &ldquo;Labor quality reported as the single most important problem was the highest in the construction, transportation and professional services industries&hellip; Nearly half (49%) of small businesses in the construction industry reported labor quality as their single most important problem, 22 points higher than for all firms.&rdquo;
The report is silent about why this might be the case. Each month&rsquo;s report includes comments from a cross-section of business owners. The only comment from the construction industry comes from Oregon, and it has nothing to do with labor quality: "Government continues to put more financial pressure on the construction business. There are more regulations and higher OSHA fines against the people who actually build this country."
At the risk of getting too far out over our skis&hellip; is it a case of small construction and transportation businesses losing labor from illegal migrants?
&ldquo;Perhaps,&rdquo; says Jim Rickards&rsquo; senior analyst Dan Amoss, &ldquo;there is an illegal immigrant dynamic here of self-deportation or moving to the underground/cash economy (this is a touchy subject, but economically important).&rdquo;
As long as the NFIB report is mute about the potential causes behind this phenomenon, we&rsquo;re hard-pressed to imagine it&rsquo;s anything else.
(Of course, we have small-business owners among our diverse readership. If you have any insights, please share: <a href="mailto:feedback@paradigmpressroom.com">feedback@paradigmpressroom.com</a>)
If our thesis is correct, there&rsquo;s the potential for a ripple effect to reach the big publicly traded homebuilders &mdash; whose costs of doing business could jump big-time.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Ring of Truth
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Your editor started the day spending the better part of 10 minutes trying to figure out if this screenshot is authentic&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2K0jPdyvANQLeVHFkR5NxY/12602a7688acf6fa0b72e9aa1f5e6eea/dailyfeed-111125-2.png" alt="White House Press Release" />
For sure, it went viral on social media, shared widely &mdash; including by people who voted for Trump last year.
&ldquo;Now it&rsquo;s ****ing 15 year car loans,&rdquo; tweeted Breck Worsham, who goes by the handle The Patriotic Blonde. &ldquo;I. CAN&rsquo;T. TAKE. IT.&rdquo;
As far as I can tell, there&rsquo;s nothing to it. If it were for real, corporate media would be reporting it. But a Google News search turns up nothing. Nor does anything turn up on the president&rsquo;s Truth Social feed &mdash; which is where you&rsquo;d expect to find it first if it were legit.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />So why mention it at all? Because it&rsquo;s a sign of the times. 
On the heels of the real and nearly-as-daft proposal for <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/cryptos-make-or-break-moment/#3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">50-year mortgages</a>, are 15-year auto loans that much more far-fetched?
Whoever devised the screenshot realized it had verisimilitude &mdash; the ring of truth.
It reminds me of an episode 20 years ago: The website Capitol Hill Blue reported that in a fit of anger, President George W. Bush snapped at a group of lawmakers, "Stop throwing the Constitution in my face! It&rsquo;s just a g&ndash;d&mdash;-- piece of paper!"
No one ever substantiated the account &mdash; and in fact Capitol Hill Blue retracted the story. But coming from the guy who signed the Patriot Act into law, it had the ring of truth, didn&rsquo;t it?
We chronicled a more recent instance in this space <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/who-planted-this-fake-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two years ago</a> &mdash; when Joe Biden supposedly said he was thinking about emptying the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Again, it was bonkers &mdash; but at the same time, almost believable.
The takeaway is this: Memes like the phony 15-year auto loans don&rsquo;t catch on unless there&rsquo;s already a receptive audience.
And there wouldn&rsquo;t be a receptive audience if there weren&rsquo;t a lot of economic distress out there&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Crypto Winter?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /><a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/cryptos-make-or-break-moment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">After yesterday&rsquo;s crypto-themed Bullet No. 1</a>, we heard from a member of our Omega Wealth Circle&hellip;
&ldquo;Dave, I invested in GBTC in my IRA back in 2018 after doing a similar analysis to what you showed, expecting it might go up 20X or more. It went up about 10X and I held on hoping for more, only to watch it go back down into the next trough. This time, I sold it back in August, missing the very top by about 10% (assuming the top for this cycle is in).
&ldquo;As many have noted, Bitcoin now tracks fairly closely with tech stocks, many of which appear to be in a bubble. No telling when that may pop, but even if the reason for the decline is different, I would not be surprised by a drop of 50&ndash;75% in Bitcoin (and tech stocks) over the next 12&ndash;18 months. Should that happen, I might well buy another Bitcoin ETF to try to ride the cycle again.
&ldquo;And with my GBTC proceeds I invested in silver miners, which are thus far up nicely, and would seem to me to have less downside for the moment. We shall see.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Hmmm&hellip; sell crypto, buy silver miners. Sounds like an intriguing pair trade!

fmf hero 111125

These Numbers Shouldn’t Be Rising

fmf 111025 hero

Crypto’s Make-or-Break Moment

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />No Bailout for You, OpenAI
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />OK, that didn&rsquo;t take long.
When we left you yesterday, we were agog at the notion that OpenAI &mdash; the company behind ChatGPT &mdash; was talking openly about taxpayer-backed loan guarantees to finance its expansion.
Federal loan guarantees would &ldquo;really drop the cost of financing,&rdquo; said OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar.
Gee, ya don&rsquo;t say!
The backlash on social media was so fierce that Friar had to issue a butt-covering &ldquo;clarification&rdquo; on her LinkedIn page. All she was really talking about when she used the word &ldquo;backstop,&rdquo; she said, was that &ldquo;American strength in technology will come from building real industrial capacity which requires the private sector and government playing their part.&rdquo;
We concluded our write-up with the observation that presumably someone in the White House took note of the torches-and-pitchforks reaction to Friar&rsquo;s sense of entitlement.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Oh, did someone ever notice. It got all the way up to David Sacks, the venture-capital guy who&rsquo;s now the White House AI and crypto czar. And he laid down the law&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7CDReemycfmRA5Pm7cdr2F/81abc72fa582a6c213fb67e47da24eb0/DavidSacksTweet.png" alt="Tweet" />
Sacks allowed Friar more grace than we did. &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t think anyone was actually asking for a bailout. (That would be ridiculous.)&rdquo;
<a id="2"></a>And he added this: &ldquo;That said, we do want to make permitting and power generation easier. The goal is rapid infrastructure buildout without increasing residential rates for electricity.&rdquo;
Good. We&rsquo;ve been sounding the alarm about AI and electricity in these digital pages for nearly two years now.
But reliable power isn&rsquo;t going to solve AI&rsquo;s most fundamental problem &mdash; which we&rsquo;ll tackle in Bullet No. 2&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />AI&rsquo;s &ldquo;Goodbye, AOL&rdquo; Moment
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Remember AOL? For many people in the mid-1990s, America Online was their training wheels for the internet.
Back then, &ldquo;AOL was the centralized network everyone knew,&rdquo; recalls Paradigm&rsquo;s AI authority James Altucher.
But over time, people discovered there was a whole new and exciting online world that existed outside of AOL&rsquo;s walled garden. And it was no more difficult to access, really, than AOL itself.
&ldquo;A decade later, AOL vanished, and the open internet built the modern world.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As James sees it, AI&rsquo;s most fundamental problem is that it&rsquo;s still stuck in its AOL phase. Everything is centralized. AI is functioning in its own walled garden.
&ldquo;If I want to start an AI company today, I need permission from Nvidia for chips, permission from VCs for funding and permission from governments for licenses.
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s the chokehold. That&rsquo;s what makes AI feel like it&rsquo;s already been captured &mdash; before it even matured.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Enter something called Bittensor. 
&ldquo;Since launch,&rdquo; says James, &ldquo;Bittensor has been proving that you can build companies without permission.
&ldquo;Not through OpenAI, not through Google&rsquo;s servers, but through a decentralized network where anyone &mdash; anywhere &mdash; can contribute compute, data or models&hellip; and earn.
&ldquo;You don&rsquo;t need anyone&rsquo;s blessing. You don&rsquo;t need venture capital. You just spin up a subnet &mdash; your own mini-network &mdash; and let anyone in the world compete to do the work.&rdquo;
If that sounds like something crypto-adjacent, you&rsquo;re absolutely right. Bittensor has a native token called TAO &mdash; whose price just hit a 10-month high while the rest of the crypto market was sinking.
The key is those subnets James mentioned: &ldquo;Each subnet is like a startup. Some detect deepfakes. Some train LLMs. Some build 3D models. Others trade predictions. Every subnet has its own token (&lsquo;alpha tokens&rsquo;), its own incentives and its own miners.
&ldquo;Here&rsquo;s the thing: to buy a subnet token, you need TAO. Every subnet purchase = TAO demand.
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s why we&rsquo;re seeing TAO rise while the rest of crypto falls.&rdquo;
TAO isn&rsquo;t up because of hype. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s up because a fundamental repricing is underway &mdash; one that reflects a deeper truth: The world is shifting from permissioned progress to permissionless progress. Bittensor is one project leading the way.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Missing Data
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />For a second time, Wall Street traders are missing out today on a first-Friday-of-the-month ritual &mdash; poring over the monthly job numbers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is affected by the &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; as much as most other agencies. And so there&rsquo;s something of a data void.
➢ By the way: I&rsquo;m noticing that &ldquo;Epstein shutdown&rdquo; is starting to catch on <a href="https://x.com/ImBreckWorsham/status/1986436503988297774" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in certain corners of social media</a>. I&rsquo;ll take credit <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/keep-your-crypto-composure#4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">for starting that</a>. Heh&hellip;
Stepping into the data void this week is the executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas. It issues a monthly job-cuts report. As it happens, job cuts soared in October to 153,074 &mdash; up 175% from October 2024.
In fact, this is the worst October report since 2003 &mdash; a month when the big box-office draw was a reboot of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre.
&ldquo;Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape,&rdquo; says Challenger&rsquo;s chief revenue officer Andy Challenger. &ldquo;At a time when job creation is at its lowest point in years, the optics of announcing layoffs in the fourth quarter are particularly unfavorable.&rdquo;
Meanwhile, there&rsquo;s a major economic number from China: Exports in October fell 1.1% in dollar terms year-over-year. It&rsquo;s the first decline since February. The number is something of a surprise &mdash; and at least for the time being, it looks like a one-off.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />What&rsquo;s been a generally rotten week for stocks isn&rsquo;t getting any better today.
The S&amp;P 500 is down another 1% to 6,649. The Dow is holding up better, the Nasdaq is faring worse.
Gold is up nearly 50 bucks to $4,024 and silver has roared 70 cents higher to $48.65. Crude is stabilizing from this week&rsquo;s sell-off at $59.60. Bitcoin hovers just over $101,000 and Ethereum a hair above $3,300.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Truth About Musk&rsquo;s Trillion
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Talk about a misleading headline.
Today&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal, front page, above the fold: &ldquo;Musk&rsquo;s Record Pay Plan Approved at Tesla. Investors vote in favor of $1 trillion package after CEO threatened to quit.&rdquo;
It&rsquo;s all true, as far as it goes. But it&rsquo;s very incomplete, says colleague Davis Wilson. And we&rsquo;ll hasten to add that Davis is no Musk fanboy: &ldquo;I&rsquo;ve said before that Tesla stock would probably trade around $50 if it weren&rsquo;t for him.&rdquo;
So here&rsquo;s the reality: &ldquo;This is not a $1 trillion payday. It&rsquo;s a performance-based plan tied to some of the hardest business goals ever set.&rdquo;
Musk didn&rsquo;t even ask for $1 trillion in TSLA stock. He asked for 25% of the company&rsquo;s voting power &mdash; up from roughly 15% now.
&ldquo;His goal is simple,&rdquo; Davis writes today at The Million Mission: &ldquo;He wants enough control to guide Tesla&rsquo;s long-term mission in AI, robotics and autonomy without being overruled by short-term investors or activists.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />And he&rsquo;s going to have to earn that control &mdash; via a series of stepped-up performance goals. The final step is for TSLA to achieve a market cap of $8.5 trillion. Right now it&rsquo;s about $1.5 trillion.
And he can&rsquo;t get there by playing accounting games. He also has to achieve the following milestones&hellip;
<ul>
<li>20 million vehicle deliveries (Tesla has delivered over 8 million so far)</li>
<li>10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions</li>
<li>1 million bots delivered</li>
<li>1 million robotaxis in operation.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;On the financial side,&rdquo; says Davis, &ldquo;Tesla must achieve between $50 billion and $400 billion in annual adjusted profit. For reference, last quarter&rsquo;s adjusted EBITDA was $4.2 billion.
&ldquo;He&rsquo;s got 10 years to reach these targets.&rdquo;
Can he do it? Tesla&rsquo;s board approved a pay package in 2018 that most observers thought was impossible to achieve. But Musk achieved every benchmark by 2021.
Davis&rsquo; bottom line: &ldquo;The headlines calling this a &lsquo;$1 trillion payday&rsquo; miss the point. It&rsquo;s not about how much Elon Musk might earn. It&rsquo;s about what Tesla will have to achieve for him to earn it.
&ldquo;If he wins, shareholders win bigger. If he loses, they lose nothing.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Appliances
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I have read with interest your ongoing correspondence/commentary with readers regarding refrigerators and how most appliances are now made overseas,&rdquo; begins today&rsquo;s mailbag.
&ldquo;One reader expressed her belief that today's refrigerators are made to last five or six years while older American-made refrigerators lasted much longer. I can't really speak to today's refrigerators and how long they hold up but I can tell you about my own fridge.
&ldquo;My fridge is a General Electric Frost Free model that came with my house, which was built in 1973 and in which I have lived since 1977, so I know it is original equipment. Not only does the fridge keep on going but the ice maker still works, too. I've been waiting for years for one or both of them to break down but so far that's a no-go. I shudder to think what would happen if I had to buy a new fridge since old reliable just keeps on going or what it would cost to replace or repair that old ice maker, which keeps on churning out ice cubes.
&ldquo;By the way, my General Electric stove, also from 1973, continues to serve on a daily basis. Over the past 48 years, I did have to replace my dishwasher, washing machine and clothes dryer, once each. The filter in the dryer needs to be replaced but that part is no longer made or available anywhere. I'd hate to have to replace the perfectly good dryer just because of a wire mesh filter.
&ldquo;I offer this information to verify and support the point made by your reader that the old U.S.-made products were far superior to today's models, at least as far as durability is concerned.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I bought a new Maytag washer this spring (anyone remember the Maytag repairman commercials?),&rdquo; writes another.
&ldquo;It is a Whirlpool product and made in America. It lasted exactly three months. Whirlpool owns Maytag and they use the local low bidder for warranty work. It took eight weeks to get it repaired. I don't think manufacturing location is the only factor in quality. The replacement parts were defective new out of the box two times.
&ldquo;Back in the good old days I would look in the local bargain finder and buy a used &lsquo;heavy duty&rsquo; washer or dryer. Brand didn't matter and it seemed like they lasted forever. My wife would be jonesing for a new set long before they expired.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I got a laugh out of your &lsquo;justifying&rsquo; purchasing a counter-top ice maker,&rdquo; a reader writes in response to my own fridge frustrations.
&ldquo;I could only &lsquo;justify&rsquo; spending money on some good old-fashioned ice trays after my LG ice maker stopped working after four years!&rdquo;
Dave: Yeah, that&rsquo;s where my mind was too at the outset. But like many appliances, the quality of ice cube trays ain&rsquo;t what it used to be!

fmf hero 110725

No Bailout for You, OpenAI

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />OpenAI Wants a Bailout
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s come to this: The company behind ChatGPT is so poorly managed it wants a taxpayer backstop. You know, like the too-big-to-fail banks.
From the AFP newswire&hellip;
<blockquote>ChatGPT creator OpenAI, the world&rsquo;s largest private company, is asking the U.S. government to provide loan guarantees for its massive infrastructure expansion that will eventually cost more than $1 trillion.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Speaking at a Wall Street Journal business conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar explained that government backing could help attract the enormous investment needed for AI computing and infrastructure, given the uncertain lifespan of AI data centers.</blockquote>
<blockquote>&ldquo;This is where we&rsquo;re looking for an ecosystem of banks, private equity, maybe even governmental,&rdquo; Friar said.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Federal loan guarantees would &ldquo;really drop the cost of financing,&rdquo; she explained, enabling OpenAI and its investors to borrow more money at lower rates to meet the company&rsquo;s ambitious targets.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Unlike AFP, much of the financial media &ldquo;buried the lead,&rdquo; as the saying goes.
The Wall Street Journal, sponsor of the conference where Friar spoke, thought it was more newsworthy when she said taking OpenAI public is &ldquo;not in the cards right now.&rdquo;
Bloomberg&rsquo;s angle was that Friar thinks the talk of an AI bubble is overblown and the market should demonstrate more &ldquo;exuberance&rdquo; about the sector.
But on social media&hellip; everyone knows the score.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/56ahIUv3OeIR60ReDPPUJG/e0d786bc8989312055127e46aa4aa944/fmf_rudy_tweet.png" alt="tweet 1" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/42Wsb6J6Su3h11mGhDLQKB/c6242b465c9c6f5ecb5b74faa361fe74/Fmf_tweet2.png" alt="tweet 2" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/693xKoJggzN3HBudERSQL/e8cf722a2f1f060c005331a3ec5303b4/fmf_tweet3.png" alt="tweet 3" />
The backlash was such that Friar tried to walk back her remarks in a LinkedIn post.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1t9iXWEcn41LsUrTXauY7J/b469bf310b80d77481bd91871f4c1c51/fmf_linkedInPost.png" alt="LinkedIn Post" />
Yeah, too late.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Then again, maybe Friar was floating a trial balloon?
Maybe the endgame is that the federal government takes a stake in OpenAI, the way it has this year with Intel, U.S. Steel, MP Materials and so on.
It&rsquo;d be a win-win for OpenAI and the feds&hellip;
<ul>
<li>OpenAI gets a sorely needed cash infusion. As mentioned here in September, how is OpenAI going to spend $300 billion on a deal with Oracle over the next five years when its revenue this year will total $13 billion? And that&rsquo;s just one of OpenAI&rsquo;s announced deals!</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The government gets to call the shots on the platform with 75% market share of generative AI chatbots.</li>
</ul>
But it&rsquo;d be a lose-lose for taxpayers and ChatGPT users&hellip;
<ul>
<li>If OpenAI&rsquo;s reputed $1 trillion valuation is vastly overblown, Uncle Sam is likely to overpay for the acquisition</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>ChatGPT could easily become a tool for censorship and surveillance &mdash; either by the current administration or a future one.</li>
</ul>
We&rsquo;ll see what shakes out in the weeks and months ahead. Presumably someone in the White House took notice of this torches-and-pitchforks moment as it unfolded over the last 24 hours.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5TysVQZKz70jCJGiMSWEKQ/f2e81858791d7c4865849e7571ac2aee/fmf_trumpMeme.png" alt="Trump Meme" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />FAA Grounds Airline Stocks
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Airline stocks are taking a hit now that the &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; is about to curb the number of planes in the sky.
As we mentioned on Tuesday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy was threatening &ldquo;mass cancellations&rdquo; of flights if air traffic controllers continued to call in sick while they&rsquo;re not getting paid.
Yesterday, the Federal Aviation Administration made it official. Flight capacity at the nation&rsquo;s 40 biggest airports will be cut by 10% over the next few days. The details aren&rsquo;t yet public but according to the Reuters newswire the most likely scenario is a 4% cut tomorrow, gradually ramping up to 10% by next week.
At last check, American Airlines is down 2.9% on the day and United Airlines 2%. Delta and Southwest are holding up somewhat better, both down about 1.5%.
➢ Shutdown update: We might have to recalibrate our call that the shutdown would be over by the end of this week. According to the Axios site, Capitol Hill Democrats are strategizing today &mdash; and Connecticut&rsquo;s Chris Murphy is among nine Dem senators urging their colleagues to continue holding out.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Actually, Delta and Southwest are doing no worse than your typical Nasdaq stock today.
Yesterday&rsquo;s mild rally had no staying power. As we write the Nasdaq is down 1.4% from yesterday&rsquo;s close and the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 0.9% to 6,738. For perspective, 6,738 was a record high only a month ago &mdash; but it&rsquo;s down 2.2% from just last week.
&ldquo;I'm still expecting a melt-up -- but I don't want to be early on betting on a turnaround!&rdquo; Greg Guenthner writes his Trading Desk readers. &ldquo;We'll let the charts guide us.&rdquo;
Precious metals are digesting their gains from earlier this week &mdash; gold at $3,976 and silver at $47.82. Crude is sinking further below $60, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate now $59.25.
Crypto can&rsquo;t catch a break. Bitcoin is hanging out at $101,545 while Ethereum has sunk below $3,300.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Tariff Refunds
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s the day after the Supreme Court hearing that might end up with the justices nixing the Trump tariff regime &mdash; at least in its present form.
As mentioned here yesterday, both conservatives and liberals piled on Solicitor General John Sauer as he made his case for the Trump administration.
&ldquo;You want to say that tariffs are not taxes, but that&rsquo;s exactly what they are,&rdquo; said liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor. As we learned in school, new taxes must originate in the House of Representatives.
Conservative Neil Gorsuch posed an eye-opening hypothetical under a Democratic administration &mdash; citing the language of the law the Trump White House is leaning on.
&ldquo;Could the president impose a 50% tariff on gas-powered cars and auto parts to deal with the &lsquo;unusual and extraordinary threat&rsquo; from abroad of climate change?&rdquo;
In so many words, Sauer sheepishly said yes.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /><a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/tariffs-on-trial" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As mentioned here two months ago</a>, there&rsquo;s now a distinct possibility the federal government would have to issue refunds for tariffs already collected.
And that&rsquo;s not chump change: Uncle Sam&rsquo;s tariff revenue in fiscal year 2025 &mdash; including eight full months of the Trump administration &mdash; totaled $195 billion. That&rsquo;s a substantial rise from fiscal 2024&rsquo;s total of $77 billion.
But the story is a bit more complex than that &mdash; as our Jim Rickards wrote his Strategic Intelligence readers recently.
&ldquo;If the U.S. Supreme Court rules that Trump did not have the legal authority he claimed to impose tariffs, then the court might impose remedies, including a refund of tariffs collected.
&ldquo;However, it is also possible the Supreme Court could hold that Trump lacked legal authority but then returns the case to a lower court for the determination of remedies, which could include refunds&hellip;
&ldquo;If the court decides Trump acted illegally, it is likely that Trump will quickly turn to another statute for authority and keep the tariffs collected on the basis of such other statute. That could result in further litigation over the alternative authority.
&ldquo;In all cases, Trump&rsquo;s team will hold onto the tariffs until all legal theories are exhausted. Trump is likely to win in the long run on one theory or another.
&ldquo;Therefore, it seems likely the tariffs will never be refunded.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Follow-Up: Pennies&hellip; and the Cash Economy
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Intriguing: The owner of 25 Burger King franchises in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio figures that 60% of his customers pay in cash.
This tidbit turns up in today&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal &mdash; which is picking up our theme from earlier this week about the developing penny shortage.
By order of the Trump administration, penny production at the U.S. Mint ended last May. A shortage that wasn&rsquo;t expected to develop until next year is here now. A Baltimore-area Burger King operator is asking employees to pick up rolls of pennies anytime they go to the bank &mdash; seeing as the franchisee&rsquo;s amored-car operator is no longer delivering them.
But the bit about 60% of BK customers paying cash &mdash; at least for one small string of Midwestern franchises &mdash; is an eye-opener.
So we dug into some Federal Reserve figures: Cash was used for about 26% of all payments in the pre-pandemic year of 2019. By 2023&ndash;24, that figure had fallen to 16%.
Cash remains popular among the 55-and-over set&hellip; among low-income households&hellip; and for small-value purchases (under $25). A 2024 Fed report suggests the decline in cash use might have reached a &ldquo;floor&rdquo; for the time being.
Cash still has the advantage of privacy in a way digital payments do not. Earlier this year we mused over how the Trump administration might have reason <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/what-if-trump-breaks-this-promise" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to do away with cash</a>. We&rsquo;ll have an update on the theme either tomorrow or next week&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Mamdani, Gold, Planned Obsolesence
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Thank you for calling the moment honestly around <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/whos-afraid-of-zohran-mamdani" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mamdani&rsquo;s election</a>,&rdquo; an appreciative reader writes. &ldquo;You cut through all the emotional noise and put your finger on the real issue: &lsquo;the decades-long dispossession of the middle and working classes by connected elites.&rsquo;
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s the heart of what&rsquo;s driving so much frustration in this country. The &lsquo;taking game&rsquo; has been running for a long time &mdash; wealth and power extracted upward with the full participation of the political class &mdash; while everyday Americans are told to fight each other over scraps. You&rsquo;re one of the few willing to name the dynamic directly rather than get lost in the partisan theatrics designed to distract from the truth.
&ldquo;I appreciate your clear-eyed analysis. It helps people see the game that is actually being played.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Interesting graph of central bank gold purchases and interesting commentary,&rdquo; writes a Strategic Intelligence subscriber after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/57-days" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;One additional thing to point out though. While the tonnage of gold purchased by the banks has gone down (maybe by 20% if the year ends at 850 metric tons?), by another measure (U.S. dollars spent by central banks on gold), I wonder if gold purchases actually increased.&nbsp;
&ldquo;With the higher U.S. dollar prices of gold in 2025, it would take more money for the central banks to buy the same amount of gold. If the amount of money that a central bank has for buying gold stays the same, then, at a higher price, they must buy less.
&ldquo;Love the 5!&rdquo;
Dave responds: Undoubtedly true. That&rsquo;s why the tonnage totals might well have topped out for now. But in no way does it suggest the central bank gold-buying spree is over!
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I believe refrigerators were made to fail after about six years due to energy requirement changes here in the U.S.,&rdquo; a reader observes. &ldquo;The motors and compressors struggle.&rdquo;
(See, this all started the other day with an item about Samsung &ldquo;smart&rdquo; fridges serving up ads on their touchscreens. But since then it&rsquo;s touched a nerve about the durability of major appliances.)
&ldquo;Further, these appliances are nearly all made overseas. LG is Korean and HUGE washer, dryer and refrigerator maker. All inferior to previously made U.S. brands. Bah humbug.&rdquo;
Dave: Yeah, and don&rsquo;t get me started on the built-in icemakers, whose lifespans seem inevitably shorter than those of the main unit. Here in our household, the icemaker in our circa-2012 Maytag model hasn&rsquo;t worked for years &mdash; but we can&rsquo;t justify the cost of either repair or replacement.
We could, however, justify the cost of a modest countertop icemaker. Hopefully, it&rsquo;s not one more item for the scrap heap in a few more years, right?

fmf hero 110625

OpenAI Wants a Bailout

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />57 Days
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Yesterday&rsquo;s media freakout appears to be already over.
When we left you 24 hours ago, shares of Palantir Technologies were selling off despite boffo sales and earnings. CNBC and the rest of the conventional-wisdom crowd were suddenly concerned about valuation &mdash; not only for notoriously pricey PLTR but any company riding the AI wave. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day down 1.2%, the Nasdaq 2%.
Going into this morning&rsquo;s trade, it&rsquo;s almost as if CNBC was disappointed that the sell-off ended nearly as soon as it began: &ldquo;Stock futures are little changed, but AMD and some other tech stocks remain under pressure.&rdquo;
Amid this backdrop we step back to see where the market is headed for the final 57 days of 2025.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;History would imply we have a great couple of months ahead of us,&rdquo; says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta.
Seasonality is part of it, for sure. &ldquo;November is the best month of the year for the market, and December is another seasonally strong month.
&ldquo;Taxes, year-end compensation for money managers and earnings all play a role. Whatever the reason, stocks often finish the year on a high note.&rdquo;
But there&rsquo;s another factor at work. Enrique calls it &ldquo;situationality.&rdquo;
&ldquo;This is simply the effect of recent stock market performance on what happens next.&rdquo;
Going into November, the S&amp;P 500 logged six straight months of gains &mdash; and the Nasdaq, seven.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;So the question now is how does the market perform heading into year-end when it&rsquo;s already running hot?&rdquo; Enrique says.
For answers, he directs our attention to a table of stock market performance in years when the S&amp;P is already up 15% or more through the first 10 months of the year.
According to Carson Investment Research, this has happened 22 times since 1950 &mdash; including 2025.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2FMA4vXQAvOF0hvM2fuKbz/2f92ed580dc71ab7959acd0d2dd2f38c/fmf_indexReturns.png" alt="Carson Research Chart" />
In every instance but one, the index was higher on Dec. 31 than it was on Oct. 31. The lone exception is 1986.
That&rsquo;s 95% odds of it happening again this year.
Carson&rsquo;s number-crunching also turns up four instances since 1950 in which the S&amp;P was up every month between May and October.
&ldquo;Each of the previous three times this happened,&rdquo; says Enrique, &ldquo;the S&amp;P has been up over the next two months with an average return of 6%.&rdquo;
Bottom line: &ldquo;The combination of seasonality and situationality has lined up perfectly this year &mdash; and history suggests it&rsquo;s a powerful setup.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Market Today: All Ears on D.C.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Rare is the day when investment professionals keep an eye on their screens while also keeping an ear on Supreme Court arguments&hellip; but today&rsquo;s the day.
The Trump tariff regime is on the docket &mdash; in a case many 5 Bullets readers first learned about six months ago, well before the Supreme Court agreed to take the case.
It&rsquo;s always dicey to make assumptions about how the justices will rule based on the questions they pose during oral arguments. But both conservative and liberal justices piled on Solicitor General John Sauer as he made the case for the Trump administration.
&ldquo;You say tariffs are not taxes, but that&rsquo;s exactly what they are,&rdquo; said liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor.
No timetable for the court to issue an opinion. But it&rsquo;s a safe bet a ruling will come sometime before the flurry of decisions that usually takes place at the end of the court&rsquo;s term in June.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In the meantime, the major U.S. stock indexes are clawing back some of yesterday&rsquo;s losses.
The S&amp;P 500 is up over half a percent at last check &mdash; back over 6,800. The Nasdaq&rsquo;s gain is stronger, the Dow&rsquo;s weaker. That said, &ldquo;I think it's a bit premature to call &lsquo;the low&rsquo; on this pullback right here,&rdquo; Greg Guenthner tells his Trading Desk readers.
The big economic number of the day is the monthly jobs report from ADP, the big payroll firm &mdash; which takes on outsized significance this month while the government shutdown is ongoing and there will be no report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics come Friday.
ADP reports 42,000 new jobs for the month &mdash; more than expected, and the first gain after two months of job losses. Alas, most of that hiring came at big firms; small and medium-sized businesses continue to cut personnel.
Elsewhere, crude has slipped under $60 a barrel. Crypto is stabilizing for the moment, Bitcoin at $103,453 and Ethereum at $3,420.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Central Banks and Gold: Still Stacking
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It looks as if the gold-buying binge by central banks is easing &mdash; if only a bit.
The World Gold Council is out with its quarterly figures of gold purchases by central banks. Here&rsquo;s the background: The world&rsquo;s central banks have helped propel gold prices higher every year since 2022. That&rsquo;s when Russia invaded Ukraine and the U.S. government imposed draconian sanctions on Russia, seizing the dollar-based assets of Russia&rsquo;s central bank.
Other governments on less-than-friendly terms with Washington wondered if they might be next &mdash; and they opted to start stacking gold rather than U.S. Treasuries. As Paradigm&rsquo;s Jim Rickards is fond of reminding us, &ldquo;Gold is a physical nondigital asset that cannot be stolen, frozen or seized provided it is in safe storage.&rdquo;
So there&rsquo;s the context for this chart. Through the first three quarters of 2025, central banks have purchased 634 metric tons of gold.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2KKC47TP3EoPuzWBwz3ux7/b49a5e3cbd7a19ec78a140ec4142602c/5Bullets_Chart_110525.png" alt="central bank gold purchases chart" />
Assuming the buying during the current quarter continues at the pace of the previous three, the year-end total for 2025 would be just shy of 850 metric tons. That&rsquo;s lower than the total in each of the last three years, but still substantially higher than anytime in the decade before 2022.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;This persistent official demand continues to limit downside volatility,&rdquo; observes Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark&rsquo;s Saxo Bank, and one of the smartest commodities minds outside of Paradigm.
Like every other observer of the precious metals space, Hansen said gold raced up too far too fast in October.
The mood now, he tells Kitco News, &ldquo;has shifted from exuberance to reflection, with traders reassessing how much of the 2025 narrative &mdash; rate cuts, fiscal stress, geopolitical hedging and central bank demand &mdash; has already been priced in&hellip;
&ldquo;Once this corrective phase runs its course, the same forces that fuelled this year&rsquo;s rally &mdash; debt, inflation, and diversification demand&mdash;are likely to reassert themselves, making the next meaningful leg higher a 2026 story.&rdquo;
In the meantime, gold is climbing back toward the $4,000 mark &mdash; the bid up $52 to $3,983. And silver&rsquo;s up a buck, back over $48 again.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Triumph of &ldquo;the CIA Democrats&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />After dropping seven figures of his personal fortune <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/whos-afraid-of-zohran-mamdani" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trying to defeat Zohran Mamdani&rsquo;s bid for mayor of New York</a>, hedge fund bigwig Bill Ackman seems oddly&hellip; at peace?
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/27OIcLf6wdGjRKgx7Anvqx/daddf30c5cf85b669d12377616a36d4a/fmf_MelTweet.png" alt="tweet" />
Mamdani&rsquo;s win is no surprise. &ldquo;Pass the popcorn,&rdquo; a reader wrote us ahead of Election Day.
In <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/the-socialist-sandbox" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yesterday&rsquo;s </a><a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/the-socialist-sandbox" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rude Awakening</a>, Sean Ring did a lovely job elaborating on a brief comment of mine last week: What&rsquo;s so bad about Mamdani becoming mayor? Let him proceed with his crackpot schemes so the rest of the world can see how badly they fail.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Meanwhile, &ldquo;the CIA Democrats&rdquo; won both governorships up for grabs yesterday.
Rewind to the 2018 midterm elections: Journalist Patrick Martin noticed an unusual number of U.S. House candidates with backgrounds in intelligence, the military or national security &mdash; all running as Democrats in competitive districts.
In a series of deeply researched articles for the World Socialist Web Site &mdash; you never know where you&rsquo;ll find quality news analysis! &mdash; Martin counted 46 such candidates he dubbed &ldquo;the CIA Democrats.&rdquo; Of those 46 candidates, 30 won their primaries and 11 won in the general election &mdash; the critical margin that handed Democrats control of the House for the latter half of Donald Trump&rsquo;s first term.
Were it not for the CIA Democrats, Trump&rsquo;s first impeachment might have never happened. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was cool to the idea throughout 2019 &mdash; until seven of the 11 CIA Democrats signed an open letter calling for proceedings to begin.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />And now two of the letter&rsquo;s seven signatories are ascending to the governor&rsquo;s office &mdash; having campaigned against Trump as much as against their Republican opponents.
Former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger won Virginia by 16 percentage points. And in New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill &mdash; a former Navy helicopter pilot fluent in Russian and Arabic &mdash; won by a 13-point margin.
The outcome in the Garden State is stunning. The Republican candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, nearly won four years ago over incumbent Democrat (and Goldman Sachs alum) Phil Murphy. Even in deep-blue New Jersey, voters were fed up with COVID lockdowns, restrictions and mandates.
That was then and this is now. Supposedly the lesson for Democrats in 2024 was that they had to be for something and not just against Trump. But after nine months of Trump 47, maybe &ldquo;against Trump&rdquo; is enough after all.
Where from here? The past is prologue&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6YO7sRiQGLYH25Hce6qpRO/d7415075a95a16b515d5fd385a0aee68/fmf_CernovichTweet.png" alt="cernovich tweet" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Pennies, Samsungs, Mamdani
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Canada ended penny production years ago,&rdquo; a reader writes from the Great White North after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/media-claptrap-vs-making-money" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>. &ldquo;They did just as you said and rounded up or down.
&ldquo;I never heard the obvious stated once: The govt of Canada inflated the currency so much that the penny was near worthless.
&ldquo;Glad to hear you had luck with your Samsung TVs. The only Samsung I would buy is a phone. Low-end Samsung appliances are poor quality. High-end Samsung appliances are worse.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Indeed, the point of your Mamdani piece seems to have been missed,&rdquo; a reader writes after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/whos-afraid-of-zohran-mamdani" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last Tuesday&rsquo;s edition</a> and <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/data-centers-in-space" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monday&rsquo;s mailbag</a>.
&ldquo;I shared it with a friend who also said, &lsquo;What&rsquo;s your point?&rsquo; (Funny thing is that he has lived in the NYC region since the early &rsquo;80s.)
&ldquo;For me, it was a great recap and contextualizing of how and why we have the candidacy of Mamdani.
&ldquo;My parents came to New York in the mid-&rsquo;50s and that&rsquo;s where I grew up. (I left &lsquo;The City&rsquo; back in the &rsquo;80s.)
&ldquo;So I much appreciated the memory jog. For sadly, memory appears to be vestigial for most Americans. One reason they can run the same plays on us over and over.&rdquo;
Dave responds: The point of the piece was right there toward the end: Mamdani&rsquo;s rise is about more than the simple but alluring narrative of &ldquo;free stuff&rdquo; and &ldquo;tax the rich.&rdquo; It&rsquo;s about the decades-long dispossession of the middle and working classes by connected elites. Anyone who didn&rsquo;t see the point didn&rsquo;t want to see the point.
In any event, it&rsquo;s hilarious to watch Bill Ackman suddenly find his Zen about Mamdani. Perhaps he&rsquo;s come to the same realization as our favorite political reporter Michael Tracey.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/215ssTHSJFst3jorvpsGNc/c0210e44ff68678eb31a8e28a51ca169/fmf_TraceyTweet.png" alt="tweet" />
We give Tracey the last word today: &ldquo;The polls in NJ were catastrophically bad! Enough polls already! Parasitic industry.&rdquo;

fmf hero 110525

57 Days

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Think Small
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Mainstream financial media settled into its narrative for the day even before the market opened.
&ldquo;S&amp;P 500 futures slide 1% on Palantir decline, rising concerns about AI stock valuations,&rdquo; said a CNBC alert on your editor&rsquo;s iPad.
Palantir, the deep state-connected spyware giant, delivered blockbuster earnings numbers after the closing bell yesterday. But management left the outlook into the latter half of 2026 a little hazy.
PLTR shares were down 6.7% at midmorning. CEO Alex Karp went on CNBC to hit out at short sellers. &ldquo;Honestly, I think what is going on here is market manipulation.&rdquo;
The nervousness about PLTR&rsquo;s nosebleed valuation (more than 200X forward earnings) is supposedly spilling into other AI-adjacent names, including &ldquo;Magnificent 7&rdquo; companies like Nvidia (down 3% as we write) and Google parent Alphabet (down 1.5%).
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The media need narratives to attract eyeballs. But narratives don&rsquo;t make you money.
&ldquo;The bull market is still in full force. In fact, I think we&rsquo;re setting up for a strong year-end rally,&rdquo; observes Chris Cimorelli.
Chris does make money, both for himself and his readers. He&rsquo;s the leader of Paradigm&rsquo;s 10X Trade Club and analyst for James Altucher&rsquo;s Microcap Millionaire advisory.
In a dispatch yesterday for Microcap Millionaire, Chris observed that in recent weeks, the Mag 7 names have done the heavy lifting for the stock market as a whole. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index has been treading water.
Looking at a chart, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s pretty clear which is outperforming the other,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;Microcaps have been moving mostly sideways, while Big Tech names have been moving up and to the right.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5OcXXfXJjZDtB0sqRbhcMX/a870dee3ccd993a1d990894eed04456d/FMF_Chart_Mag7-Lag2000_110425.png" alt="mag 7 chart" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As Chris sees it, this is a good thing for the market as a whole &mdash; and especially for the market&rsquo;s smallest stocks.
&ldquo;This looks like one of those classic &lsquo;generals leading the troops&rsquo; situations,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;The big names surge first, confidence builds, then the smaller names follow. It&rsquo;s how bull markets strengthen and broaden out&hellip;
&ldquo;Consolidations are normal. They let markets reset before the next leg higher. This just confirms that the bull market is still in full force.&rdquo;
What&rsquo;s more, &ldquo;There are some major catalysts working in our favor right now.&rdquo;
The Trump-Xi summit dialed down the trade-war tensions, at least for the time being. Meanwhile, there are rumblings from Washington that the &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; might come to an end in the next few days. (More about that shortly.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;There&rsquo;s one beaten-down sector James and I have had our eyes on lately that is set to benefit from both trade deals and an end to the government shutdown,&rdquo; says Chris.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s also one of the most interest-rate sensitive areas of the market, and with the Fed finally cutting interest rates, this forgotten sector is finally starting to wake up.&rdquo;
This is exactly the kind of setup Chris and James look for in Microcap Millionaire. &ldquo;James and I have spent hours researching different plays, and we&rsquo;ve finally pinpointed one that we think will explode as this sector comes roaring back to life.&rdquo;
For the moment, the name and ticker is a closely guarded secret &mdash; even for Microcap Millionaire subscribers. Chris is performing some last-minute due diligence even as he&rsquo;s on vacation in Japan. He&rsquo;ll issue the recommendation Thursday morning as the market opens.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Crude Awakening
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The price of crude is sinking back toward $60 amid more noise and nonsense about Western sanctions and Russian oil.
&ldquo;Russian Oil Finds Fewer Takes in China After Hit From Sanctions,&rdquo; says a breathless Bloomberg headline.
&ldquo;Chinese oil refiners, including state-owned giants and smaller private refiners, are shunning Russian shipments after the U.S. and others blacklisted Moscow&rsquo;s top producers and some of its customers.&rdquo;
As the veteran observer of energy markets Anas Alhajji observes on X, &ldquo;We&rsquo;ve heard similar stories so many times in the last two years, only to be proven wrong a few days later.&rdquo;
Word. More than two years, in fact. The first round of sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 were supposed to choke off Russia&rsquo;s energy revenue. Instead, China and India happily bought all the crude that Europeans decided to swear off.
Meanwhile, this morning&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal informs us that &ldquo;China has spent months building up its oil reserves. That might come in handy in the wake of the new sanctions the U.S. recently imposed on Russian crude.&rdquo;
Chinese customs data reveal that during the first nine months of 2025, the Middle Kingdom imported an average 11 million barrels a day &mdash; an amount exceeding the daily production of Saudi Arabia. And over 10% of that total went into China&rsquo;s strategic reserve.
Bottom line: Russian crude will continue to find willing buyers no matter what Joe Biden or Donald Trump have done. As long as Russian crude keeps reaching the market, there&rsquo;s an effective ceiling on the oil price until some sort of supply shock comes along.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As the day wears on, the alleged Palantir-driven sell-off is looking more like&hellip; a humdrum day in which the major averages are in the red.
The S&amp;P 500 is down about three-quarters of a percent, a hair&rsquo;s breadth below 6,800. The Dow&rsquo;s losses are narrower, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s steeper.
Precious metals are taking it on the chin again, gold down $44 to $3,956 and silver off 62 cents to $47.40. For perspective we&rsquo;ll remind you that $3,956 gold was a record high less than a month ago.
Digital nondollar assets continue to sell off &mdash; Bitcoin now approaching $103,000 (the lowest since late June) and Ethereum in danger of cracking beneath $3,500.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Airspace Shutdown?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Astonishingly, the airline stocks are holding up well this week despite two threats by Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to close at least some U.S. airspace.
Air traffic controllers are supposed to stay on the job despite the shutdown. But they&rsquo;re not getting paid. And the promise of back pay once the shutdown is over? Not enough to keep some of them from calling in sick (and perhaps taking on other jobs to make ends meet). There&rsquo;ve been ground stops at many U.S. airports in recent weeks.
&ldquo;If we thought that it was unsafe&hellip; we&rsquo;ll shut the whole airspace down,&rdquo; Duffy told CNBC yesterday.
&ldquo;You'll see mass cancellations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace, because we just cannot manage it," he said at a press conference today.
That&rsquo;s no small thing considering that three weeks from tomorrow is the day before Thanksgiving.
Airline stocks rallied yesterday despite Duffy&rsquo;s first threat. As he reiterated that threat today, the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) is down about 1.9%. But it&rsquo;s still no worse off than it was last Wednesday.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;We think that the government shutdown will end this week,&rdquo; Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta says on the daily-feed section of the Paradigm mobile app.
&ldquo;Love them or hate them, The Washington Post is super-plugged into D.C. and this was one of their headlines last night.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1Yg6xa7zTQmS9MW1M3B6oo/87e313794a26a63d3bf58933ef469eef/WaPoHeadline.png" alt="WaPo headline" />
The governor&rsquo;s elections in Virginia and New Jersey today amount to &ldquo;the first report card on Trump,&rdquo; says Sen. Mark Warner (D-Virginia). The Democratic candidates in both races are running against Trump as much as they&rsquo;re touting state issues. Should they win, the thinking goes, Republicans will start to bend on Obamacare subsidies and other issues.
Republicans also see an end in sight, on the theory that Democrats simply needed to stand tall ahead of Election Day and they can stand down afterward.
In the meantime, today is Day 35 of the shutdown &mdash; equaling the length of the 2018&ndash;2019 shutdown, which set a record.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Problems We Hadn&rsquo;t Started Thinking About Yet
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It seems there&rsquo;s a penny shortage.
Until yesterday your editor had forgotten that the Trump administration ordered an end to production of one-cent pieces in February.
It was a sensible decision, given the cost of production &mdash; 3.69 cents each. It was also a performative act of budgetary discipline at a time when DOGE was still making daily headlines. (Remember that?)
Production ended in May. The Treasury Department figured any shortages would be a 2026 thing &mdash; but the government isn&rsquo;t issuing any pennies to the banks, so the banks are rationing the pennies they give to businesses.
Result? &ldquo;We first heard about the issue in late August, early September," says Dylan Jeon of the National Retail Federation &ldquo;It's really impacting any business that deals with cash payments,&rdquo; he tells the BBC.
Solution? Many businesses are rounding the price of a sale at the cash register up or down to the nearest five-cent increment.
For the sake of customer goodwill, that usually means rounding down. The convenience store chain Kwik Trip &mdash; it has a fanatical following in the Upper Midwest like Wawa and Buc-ee&rsquo;s elsewhere &mdash; started doing so a month ago. The family-owned firm estimates the move will cost up to $3 million in revenue by year-end.
In other lines of business, &ldquo;Many stores are now urging customers to pay in exact change,&rdquo; says the BBC. &ldquo;Others are hosting promotions for customers to bring in extra pennies they have at home.&rdquo;
As we mentioned at the time of the Trump administration&rsquo;s announcement, the real outrage is that inflation is so out of control that there was a valid reason for the feds to stop minting pennies.
With that in mind, get this: It costs the U.S. Mint nearly 14 cents to make a nickel. Just sayin&rsquo;.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />A Miscellaneous Mailbag
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Read Buck's article and found it interesting,&rdquo; a reader writes after Buck Sexton&rsquo;s guest essay last Thursday.
&ldquo;I have always been a big Star Trek fan and this came to mind. In YouTube, search &lsquo;Swarm ships tear the Enterprise apart, Star Trek Beyond.&rsquo; To me the Enterprise could be an aircraft carrier and the swarm are drones.
&ldquo;There are other interesting episodes from the original Star Trek series in the &rsquo;60s that make you think. &lsquo;A Taste of Armageddon&rsquo; and &lsquo;The Ultimate Computer&rsquo; are two that come to mind. Again these are from the &rsquo;60s!
&ldquo;Keep up the good work.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Samsung? Why would anyone want one?&rdquo; a reader writes after our item last week about a &ldquo;smart&rdquo; refrigerator that serves up ads on its touchscreen.
&ldquo;I have had the &lsquo;pleasure&rsquo; of owning several Samsung refrigerators, sadly.
&ldquo;None of them has performed as advertised, and all have had many service calls to get them to operate at all for roughly half the lifetime I expected. The last one I will ever own is currently in my kitchen, with its second nonfunctional ice and water dispenser. The cost to replace it is so high that the repair guy said he wouldn't do it, because it is not worth the price and it will only break down again anyway. Apparently, he spends a lot of time fixing Samsungs.
&ldquo;Customer service is nonexistent, parts are very expensive and reliability is well below other brands. Now they want to add advertising to them! Why would anyone want one?&rdquo;
Dave: Hmmm&hellip; There&rsquo;s a circa-2021 Samsung microwave in your editor&rsquo;s kitchen. In no way is it a &ldquo;smart&rdquo; microwave; indeed it&rsquo;s so dumb I reset the clock when the power went out yesterday. (Which is fine by me.) We&rsquo;ll see how durable it proves to be.
I can give a hearty endorsement to Samsung TVs. My wife and I have two 27-inch models purchased from Costco in 2011. Both remain in daily use as computer monitors, one of them for the preparation of these daily missives.
The power cords can be a little squirrelly, and I had to replace one of them a few years back &mdash; but otherwise, recommended!

fmf hero 110425

Media Claptrap vs. Making Money

fmf-hero-110325

Data Centers in Space 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />SpaceX&rsquo;s $2 Billion Windfall
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />SpaceX is poised to receive about $2 billion to help build a new layer of America&rsquo;s missile-tracking architecture.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the funding &mdash; neatly folded into the &ldquo;One Big Beautiful Bill&rdquo; President Trump signed in July &mdash; is part of his <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-ultimate-white-house-insider">&ldquo;Golden Dome&rdquo;</a> missile-defense initiative.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2Jkh0DKDKHO0NWLnNVhfmb/c5ff22d5871ef23e801157ba9b30dc2b/Musk-NationalSecurity.png" alt="National Security" width="540px" />

Source: WSJ, X
The money wasn&rsquo;t publicly linked to a contractor at the time, but unnamed WSJ sources say it will go to SpaceX to develop satellites that can detect and track missiles and aircraft in flight.
Golden Dome is envisioned as a complex network of satellites and other technologies capable of intercepting missiles before they hit their targets. The Pentagon hasn&rsquo;t disclosed many details of how the shield would work and has yet to award most major contracts.
Here&rsquo;s what we do know: The plan calls for as many as 600 satellites in what&rsquo;s being described as an &ldquo;air-moving target indicator&rdquo; system. It&rsquo;s one piece of a much larger project that Trump has said could cost $175 billion, though analysts believe the total could run much higher.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> For SpaceX, the deal underscores how deeply the company has embedded itself in U.S. national security.
The Elon Musk-led private firm, best known for rocket launches and its Starlink internet network, has become an indispensable contractor for the Defense Department and the intelligence community.
Officials praise SpaceX&rsquo;s ability to build and launch satellites quickly &mdash; an advantage in an era when the military wants to refresh orbital technology at commercial speed.
&ldquo;What we&rsquo;re relying on is industry to help us innovate by showing us the art of the possible &mdash; bringing ideas to us,&rdquo; said U.S. Space Force (USSF) Gen. Chance Saltzman at an industry event last year.
SpaceX is also positioned to play a major role in two other Pentagon satellite constellations, WSJ reports.
One, called MILNET, is a planned low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite communications constellation intended to provide global communications for the U.S. military and intelligence community.
The other, known as the Ground Moving Target Indicator (GMTI) &mdash; being developed by the USSF together with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) &mdash; will enable satellites to track vehicles and ships from space.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />SpaceX has now launched more than 10,000 Starlink satellites, by far the largest fleet ever assembled, and has built a record for mass-manufacturing satellites on tight timelines.
That production capacity could prove crucial as the Trump administration pushes to get Golden Dome operational before the end of his term.
Not everyone is comfortable with SpaceX&rsquo;s growing dominance. Lawmakers and defense officials have warned against &ldquo;vendor lock,&rdquo; where the government becomes overly dependent on a single supplier. &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t want to end up where we pick one company and we go down a path,&rdquo; Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) said recently.
The Defense Science Board made a similar point last year, noting that dependence on one firm can &ldquo;negate the strengths of the market by stifling innovation and inflating prices.&rdquo;
Musk&rsquo;s erratic relationship with government agencies has also fueled caution. He&rsquo;s publicly threatened to withdraw services, for instance, such as hinting at ending SpaceX&rsquo;s Dragon spacecraft mission with NASA &mdash; a threat he later walked back.
Still, the government continues to rely on the company. As SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said at the end of an investor event last year: &ldquo;The government will get what they need &mdash; just like always.&rdquo;
The Pentagon says details of Golden Dome&rsquo;s architecture remain under review. But if timelines hold, and funding flows as expected, the company could soon become the backbone of America&rsquo;s next missile-detection system &mdash; an arrangement that would cement SpaceX as a central pillar of U.S. defense.

[BREAKING: One ticker symbol lets you grab a pre-IPO stake in Elon Musk&rsquo;s biggest, most ambitious project of his lifetime: SpaceX.
When you consider&hellip;
<blockquote>➔ First, Elon bet it all on PayPal and made millions...</blockquote>
<blockquote>➔ Then he bet it all on Tesla and made billions...</blockquote>
<blockquote>➔ Now, with the help of SpaceX, he&rsquo;s set to make trillions&hellip;</blockquote>
This is one of the only chances you&rsquo;ll ever have to own a pre-IPO stake in an Elon Musk company &mdash; before it goes public.
There&rsquo;s no paywall. No subscription. No credit card required to get this ticker symbol.
I urge you: <a href="https://new.crowdability.com/m2/12381">Watch the video and get the ticker now&hellip;</a> Before this presentation goes offline!]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Return of Money-Printing
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The Fed did exactly what Jim Rickards expected &mdash; it cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 4.00%. 
&ldquo;The rate cut was widely expected,&rdquo; Jim says. &ldquo;The Fed does not like to produce surprises if they can possibly avoid it.&rdquo;
The vote was 10&ndash;2, but what made it unusual was the split. One dissenter wanted a larger cut; another wanted none at all. &ldquo;Opposite dissents inside the FOMC,&rdquo; Jim notes, &ldquo;are a clear sign that Jay Powell is losing his grip on the committee.&rdquo;
In his press conference, Fed chair Jay Powell leaned heavily toward the employment side of the Fed&rsquo;s dual mandate. &ldquo;Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling,&rdquo; Powell emphasized. &ldquo;Job gains have slowed significantly since earlier in the year.&rdquo;
Jim interprets this as signalling the Fed&rsquo;s focus. &ldquo;The Fed is clearly more concerned about rising unemployment than lingering inflation,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;That tells you which way policy is headed.&rdquo;
With unemployment creeping higher &mdash; and private payroll data already showing job losses &mdash; Powell&rsquo;s balancing act is breaking down. The Fed is choosing to fight job losses now and hope inflation cooperates later.
&ldquo;Expect another cut before year-end,&rdquo; Jim forecasts. &ldquo;The Fed is following the markets, not leading them &mdash; and that&rsquo;s never good news for investors.&rdquo;
This meeting went beyond the headline cut, Jim adds. The Fed also ended quantitative tightening (QT) &mdash; a quiet but powerful shift. &ldquo;Ending QT means the Fed will start reinvesting the proceeds of maturing Treasuries and mortgage securities,&rdquo; he explains. &ldquo;That&rsquo;s another way of saying the Fed is printing money again.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Big Tech&rsquo;s Big Picture
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;With five of the Mag 7 stocks delivering results&hellip; this is the kind of week that tests portfolio positioning,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s pro trader Enrique Abeyta.
&ldquo;Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft together represent trillions in market capitalization and a massive share of the S&amp;P 500&rsquo;s performance.&rdquo;
Yesterday, we reported Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft earnings &mdash; almost universally solid earnings beats with one caveat. &ldquo;Meta blamed the EPS miss on ever-increasing AI capital expenditures during their earnings call,&rdquo; Enrique notes.
On Thursday, two more Mag 7 stocks announced earnings:
<ul>
<li>Amazon (AMZN) delivered a strong Q3 2025 showing, with its cloud arm Amazon Web Services (AWS) posting a year-over-year revenue increase of 20%, a pace the company says is the fastest since 2022. Moreover, Amazon issued guidance for Q4 net sales between $206&ndash;213 billion</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Apple (AAPL) reported its fiscal Q4 2025 (ended Sept. 27) earnings per share of $1.85, up 13% year-over-year and beating estimates, on revenue of $102.5 billion, up 8%. Apple also highlighted record revenues for its iPhone and Services segments, and CEO Tim Cook said he expects December to net &ldquo;the best ever&rdquo; for iPhone sales.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;Their earnings don&rsquo;t just move their own stocks,&rdquo; says Enrique, &ldquo;they shape the direction of the entire market, set the tone for tech sentiment and even influence Fed policy expectations.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Now, what does all of this mean for [your] investing strategy?&rdquo; he asks.
&ldquo;For investors, this cluster of reports is a readout on the health of global digital spending, cloud demand, advertising trends, AI investment and more.
&ldquo;Strong results from Alphabet and Microsoft reinforce the dominance of digital infrastructure and AI momentum,&rdquo; Enrique notes.
&ldquo;This suggests that growth-oriented investors can remain tilted toward mega-caps and Cloud/AI exposures. However, Meta&rsquo;s warning flags emphasize that costs still matter, even if they are AI buildout-related.
&ldquo;In the big picture,&rdquo; Enrique concludes, &ldquo;when five of the sector&rsquo;s heavyweights post in the same week, the market is laser-focused on their results
&ldquo;They give us investors not just a snapshot of today, but a template of what the next multiyear cycle might look like.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As if on cue, stocks are mostly in the green today. The tech-heavy Nasdaq&rsquo;s up almost 1% to 23,800; at the same time, the S&amp;P 500 is up 0.35% to 6,845. But the Big Board&rsquo;s just slipped into red territory, down to 47,515.
Just for kicks, shares of our most recent Mag 7 reporters, AMZN and APPL, are respectively up over 11%... and down 0.15%. MSFT, META and GOOG have also pulled back so far today.
Turning to commodities, oil&rsquo;s up 0.30% to $60.60 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Gold, meanwhile, is up 0.30% to $4,027.80 per ounce. But silver&rsquo;s down 0.15% to $48.55.
As for the crypto market, Bitcoin&rsquo;s up 3.15% to $110,140. And Ethereum&rsquo;s rallying: up 4% to $3,860.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" /> From Telegrams to Tokens
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Western Union has filed a U.S. trademark application for &ldquo;WUUSD,&rdquo; signalling a major move into the stablecoin/digital-asset space by the 175-year-old payments giant.
This filing comes on the heels of Western Union&rsquo;s announcement of the planned launch of a stablecoin &mdash; the U.S. Dollar Payment Token (USDPT) on the Solana blockchain &mdash; with rollout expected in the first half of 2026.
As for the WUUSD trademark application, it covers a broad spectrum of potential crypto-related services: digital wallet software, stablecoin payment processing, cryptocurrency trading, lending and brokerage or securities/derivatives exchange functions.
Western Union confirms it has partnered with Anchorage Digital Bank to build a &ldquo;digital asset network&rdquo; (DAN). This network is intended to enable customers to convert stablecoins into cash via Western Union&rsquo;s agent locations &mdash; bridging the digital-token world with traditional fiat off-ramps.
While the precise distinction between WUUSD and USDPT isn&rsquo;t fully clear (for example, whether WUUSD is a consumer-brand, a token symbol or a broader platform name), this step marks the company&rsquo;s strongest public signal yet toward transforming global payments with blockchain technology.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Spooky Season
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Halloween 2025 is about scary prices&hellip; 
Americans are expected to spend a bone-chilling $13.1 billion this year, with the average celebrant shelling out a record $114.45 for costumes, candy and decorations.
Overall, candy will gobble up nearly $4 billion, while costumes have crept past $4.3 billion.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3fMmvW3hyloVPQ651Mkw6P/db7f619e36d4e18359879581c714f6a4/Halloween-inflation.png" alt="Halloween Inflation" width="540px" />
Thanks to inflation, tariffs and even hard-hit cocoa harvests, you&rsquo;ll get fewer treats for every trick &mdash; so brace for &ldquo;shrinkflation&rdquo; in your candy haul.
Be that as it may, reader, embrace the spooky spirit, share a laugh and make the day a memorable one for family, friends and neighbors. Happy Halloween!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

SpaceX

SpaceX is poised to receive about $2 billion to help build a new layer of America’s missile-tracking architecture.

The Musk (Military) Industrial Complex

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Data Center Next Door
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />What once was a sleepy U.S. suburb or stretch of farmland has given rise to a new kind of neighborhood drama: the looming presence of data centers.
Take the case of Kay Richards, a homeowner who says the relentless thrum from the Amazon data center next door makes it hard to enjoy her own backyard.
Yet she&rsquo;s not ready to give up her dream home. &ldquo;Moving feels impossible,&rdquo; she says. &ldquo;But so does gardening with that racket.&rdquo;
NIMBY &mdash; &ldquo;Not in My Backyard&rdquo; &mdash; is no longer about big chain stores, shipping warehouses or housing developments. Today, anger is squarely pointed at the rows of low-slung, windowless data centers that quietly power the world&rsquo;s streaming movies, bank transactions and, increasingly, artificial intelligence.
Far from universally welcome, these server farms have become a flashpoint for grassroots activism across the U.S.
Residents&rsquo; complaints range from the practical to the existential: noise that drives them indoors, patchy power supply, disruptions to local water supplies and fears that property values might tank when a hulking digital fortress comes to town.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Industry trackers estimate that $64 billion worth of data center projects have been either delayed or blocked outright in the last two years due to local resistance. 
This opposition is waged by more than 140 grassroots groups in 28 states that are formally campaigning against new server farms.
In northern Virginia, the epicenter of &ldquo;Data Center Alley,&rdquo; there are more data centers than any other region in the world, and local campaigns have become both increasingly professional and tenacious.
Over 40 groups there have linked up under the Data Center Reform Coalition to demand tighter regulations and rethink development priorities.
Homeowner groups, conservationists and civic activists &mdash; Republicans and Democrats alike &mdash; agree that data centers, for all their invisible benefits, make troublesome neighbors when it comes to daily life.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Every data center requires enormous amounts of electricity and water, raising the specter of brownouts and ultra-high energy bills for those living nearby. 
&ldquo;Wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers,&rdquo; Bloomberg reports. &ldquo;That's being passed on to customers.&rdquo;
Water consumption, especially in drought-prone areas, is another battle cry, and when the facilities rely on fossil-fuel energy, residents worry they&rsquo;re undermining efforts for a greener power grid.
Albeit some industry voices offer a counterpoint. Lazard Asset Management analyst Shanu Mathew posted on X: &ldquo;The AI data center buildout, if implemented correctly, can accelerate our effort to modernize and upgrade the grids as we electrify the economy.&rdquo;
And clearly, the U.S. is going to need all hands on deck&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7vQp0ETbNw82V9H8yY2cvv/c6c8ba22b1eaaf78a606aab8759836ca/ShanuTweet.png" alt="shanu tweet" width="540px" />
Meanwhile, some local governments are touting the jobs and tax revenue data centers may bring, but others push back, pointing out the bulk of employment is front-loaded during construction.
Once built, for instance, a typical data center often requires fewer than 50 permanent jobs &mdash; hardly a windfall for towns that may pay a price in added noise, stress to local utilities or loss of green space.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The friction has spurred a wave of political action. State legislatures, county zoning boards and even national politicians are now devising ways to rein in the industry&rsquo;s rapid expansion.
Some call for strict environmental reviews. Others debate taxing data centers at higher rates or demanding that tech giants invest directly in local power grids or water infrastructure.
One reality remains: Wherever people live, the debate over data centers is unlikely to quiet down.
As digital services grow &mdash; and with AI and cloud computing still rapidly scaling &mdash; the demand for places to stash the world&rsquo;s data will only increase.
For many Americans, the question isn&rsquo;t just what powers the internet, but at what cost to the places they call home.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />AI&rsquo;s Moment of Truth
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Are we in an AI bubble?&rdquo; asks Paradigm editor Davis Wilson. &ldquo;We&rsquo;ll find out this week.
&ldquo;Wednesday and Thursday will likely determine the direction of the entire U.S. stock market for the rest of the year,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;That&rsquo;s when Big Tech steps into the earnings spotlight.
&ldquo;Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta report on Wednesday while Apple and Amazon follow on Thursday.
&ldquo;These aren&rsquo;t just the biggest companies in the S&amp;P 500. They&rsquo;re the core of the AI revolution. These are the firms building, training and deploying the world&rsquo;s most advanced models.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;And their spending plans will likely dictate the direction of the market for the rest of the year,&rdquo; says Davis.
&ldquo;Here&rsquo;s where we are: Four major tech firms &mdash; Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon &mdash; are expected to invest over $300 billion this year in AI infrastructure, primarily on GPUs from Nvidia and the data-center capacity to host them.
&ldquo;Here&rsquo;s the breakdown:
<ul>
<li>Microsoft said in July it expected to spend $30 billion in capital expenditures during the quarter, representing annual growth of more than 50%</li>
<li>Alphabet raised its full-year capex outlook to $85 billion, up from $75 billion</li>
<li>Meta boosted the midpoint of its 2025 capex forecast by $1 billion to $69 billion</li>
<li>Amazon plans to spend over $100 billion this year, signaling capex of about $31 billion per quarter in the second half.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s a staggering level of investment that shows no signs of slowing.
&ldquo;Still, there&rsquo;s an important caveat: This AI spending spree far outpaces the current revenue these companies are generating from AI today,&rdquo; he notes.
&ldquo;Investors are essentially front-running the payoff, assuming this massive investment will eventually translate into dominance once the technology matures.
&ldquo;That level of upfront spending is making some investors uneasy,&rdquo; Davis concludes, &ldquo;evoking echoes of the dot-com era as the market waits to see if these bets will pay off.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Nvidia (NVDA) just broke another record. The chipmaker&rsquo;s market cap surged past $5 trillion, cementing its place as the world&rsquo;s most valuable company. 
NVDA shares are already up 50% year-to-date as demand for its AI semiconductors continues to outpace supply. This as CEO Jensen Huang announces the company is preparing for as much as $500 billion in AI chip orders and is working with Washington to engineer as many as seven new supercomputers for the U.S. government.
At the time of writing, NVDA is up almost 4%. As for the rest of the stock market, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is leading the way: up 0.65% to 23,950. At the same time, the Big Board is up 0.50%, just under 48,000. In third place, the S&amp;P 500 is up 0.30% to 6,910.
<a id="3"></a>
Oil&rsquo;s getting a little love today; the price for a barrel of WTI is up 1.30% to $60.90. Precious metals, likewise, are enjoying some attention. Gold&rsquo;s up 1% to $4,023.70 per ounce while silver&rsquo;s up 1.65% to $48.10.
But the crypto market is staunchly in the red: Bitcoin&rsquo;s lost 1.40% to $112,300, and Ethereum&rsquo;s down 2% to $3,970.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Fed, Two Mandates, One Mess
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Inflation is moving steadily away from the Fed&rsquo;s 2.0% target,&rdquo; Jim Rickards warns. 
September&rsquo;s 3.0% reading was the highest since January, and &ldquo;it may go even higher in the months ahead as newly announced tariffs take hold in the supply chain,&rdquo; he adds.
Some might shrug at 3% inflation. Jim doesn&rsquo;t. &ldquo;That rate will cut the value of the dollar in half in 24 years,&rdquo; he notes, &ldquo;and again in another 24 years.&rdquo; Over a typical working career, he says, the dollar could lose &ldquo;75% of its purchasing power.&rdquo;
His takeaway for everyday Americans: &ldquo;What are you working for unless wages are going up faster than inflation?&rdquo; And as he often reminds readers, holding some gold can help &ldquo;offset [toxic] dollar devaluation.&rdquo;
But what&rsquo;s really forcing the Fed&rsquo;s hand at this week&rsquo;s FOMC meeting isn&rsquo;t inflation &mdash; it&rsquo;s jobs.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Unemployment has been quietly climbing for months: 4.1% in June, 4.2% in July, 4.3% in August.
Worse, revisions show the U.S. actually lost jobs in June &mdash; &ldquo;the first job loss reported since 2020.&rdquo; And private-sector data confirms the shift: ADP found employers cut 32,000 jobs in September.
Plus, Jim cites new data showing earlier job gains were massively overstated. In just the first quarter of 2025, the government &ldquo;overstated job creation by 911,000 jobs.&rdquo; Add late-2024 revisions and &ldquo;over 1.7 million jobs&hellip; disappeared.&rdquo;
The Fed still clings to the Phillips Curve &mdash; the theory that inflation and unemployment move opposite each other &mdash; but Jim calls it &ldquo;a joke.&rdquo;

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3tfwxUH9OJ33WzkDq58UVm/3134693ed50bdadb60c63d1935830873/Unemployement.png" alt="unemployement" width="540px" />

Source: Bloomberg, NISA Irretrievably kinked: &ldquo;A Phillips Curve on a graph [has] no predictive analytic power and offers no policy guidance,&rdquo; says Jim.
History shows both inflation and unemployment can go wrong at once, and that&rsquo;s exactly the risk today. So what will the Fed do? Simple, Jim says: &ldquo;They can&rsquo;t fight both battles at once.
&ldquo;On Wednesday, the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%,&rdquo; he forecasts. &ldquo;That decision will lower the federal funds target to 4.00%.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Boeing&rsquo;s $4.9 Billion Oops
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Boeing (BA) just dropped a $4.9 billion accounting charge and pushed back the debut of its massive new wide-body jet, the 777X, until 2027 &mdash; seven years behind schedule.
The fallout hit its quarterly earnings hard: a loss of $7.47 per share, far worse than the $4.44 analysts expected. Meanwhile, revenue came in at $23.27 billion, beating estimates around $22.3 billion.
Why does the $4.9 billion charge matter? It shows Boeing&rsquo;s still digging out of a deep hole. Yes, there&rsquo;s more bad news &mdash; the company posted negative free cash flow this quarter ($238 million). Guess that&rsquo;s better than a year ago when the company reported negative $1.34 billion&hellip;&nbsp;
Here&rsquo;s the extra kicker: Airlines like Deutsche Lufthansa AG (the launch customer for the 777X) and Emirates (the biggest buyer) are already reshuffling their fleet plans and assuming the jet won&rsquo;t drop before 2027.
The 777X, one of Boeing&rsquo;s most important future jets, has been such a headache that the accounting losses tied to it have ballooned to almost $16 billion. That&rsquo;s not pocket change &mdash; it&rsquo;s a long-term financial weight that Boeing will keep carrying until the plane finally gets into service and starts making money.
Meanwhile, Boeing delivered 160 aircraft in the quarter &mdash; its strongest showing since 2018 &mdash; hinting that some parts of the business may be stabilizing.
Bottom line: Even if a few indicators are improving, a multibillion-dollar setback on a flagship project is a harsh reminder that Boeing&rsquo;s turnaround isn&rsquo;t a clean glide path yet. There&rsquo;s still turbulence ahead.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />A Fridge Too Far?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Samsung has begun rolling out a new software update in the U.S. for its Family Hub smart refrigerators. 
This pricey appliance &mdash; $3,398 on sale today at my local Home Depot &mdash; already connects to your Wi-Fi, organizes your shopping and (maybe) stares into your soul while you hunt for leftovers.
[Speaking of Home Depot, here&rsquo;s a 1-star review of said refrigerator at HD&rsquo;s website, courtesy of Junk Fridge: &ldquo;I want to enjoy this fridge, but I&rsquo;ve had it a little over a month and it's on its third repair. The Wi-Fi would not stay connected, which was the first service. They replaced the Wi-Fi module and now [it] still does not stay connected&hellip;
&ldquo;The fridge works fine from a cooling perspective,&rdquo; &mdash; heh &mdash; &ldquo;but I could have gotten a much cheaper fridge if I wanted just a basic fridge.&rdquo;]
The latest feature? Starting on Monday this week, &ldquo;curated advertisements,&rdquo; according to Samsung. Yes, your refrigerator can now suggest more ways to part you from your money.
To Samsung&rsquo;s credit, you can disable the ads.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5denQKFdYOwUe1uL5AmLnS/e8144ecc24563bd036e0a3e2f9c933fe/image__171__copy.png" alt="ad" width="540px" />

Courtesy: Samsung
Overall, we expect the reception to be chilly.
Take care, reader&hellip; Tomorrow, we hand the mic to a guest who&rsquo;s been behind the doors of the most important company in the world. Don&rsquo;t miss it!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Gardening

What once was a sleepy U.S. suburb or stretch of farmland has given rise to a new kind of NIMBY drama. 