On this final day of 2024, we bring you a special video edition to help prime your portfolio for 2025.
Welcome to your post-holiday video edition of the 5 Bullets!
As you ease into your day, you won&rsquo;t want to miss some never-before-seen content forecasting one of the biggest investment trends for 2025.
In fact, exactly two weeks ago, Paradigm&rsquo;s top minds convened in Baltimore &mdash; where trading pro and former hedge fund manager Enrique Abeyta issued a monumental New Year&rsquo;s prediction.
He posed one intriguing question: Which Mag 7 mainstay will lose over 30% in market cap?
<script src="https://fast.wistia.com/embed/medias/78b3ao61gj.jsonp" async=""></script>
<script src="https://fast.wistia.com/assets/external/E-v1.js" async=""></script>
<div class="wistia_responsive_padding" style="padding: 54.58% 0 0 0; position: relative;">
<div class="wistia_responsive_wrapper" style="height: 100%; left: 0; position: absolute; top: 0; width: 100%;">
<div class="wistia_embed wistia_async_78b3ao61gj videoFoam=true" style="height: 100%; position: relative; width: 100%;">
<div class="wistia_swatch" style="height: 100%; left: 0; opacity: 0; overflow: hidden; position: absolute; top: 0; transition: opacity 200ms; width: 100%;"><img style="filter: blur(5px); height: 100%; object-fit: contain; width: 100%;" src="https://fast.wistia.com/embed/medias/78b3ao61gj/swatch" alt="" aria-hidden="true" /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
In fact, Enrique believes, a major tech player&rsquo;s meteoric rise might be coming to an end.
And he&rsquo;s here to outline how this company will shock investors and financial media alike as he compares this scenario to a well-known plunge during the dot-com crash.
However, Enrique remains optimistic about this tech giant&rsquo;s long-term future, suggesting its value could eventually double. Or even increase tenfold.
Click above to view Enrique&rsquo;s surprise 2025 forecast&hellip; While you enjoy a lazy day in your pajamas (if you&rsquo;re into that sorta thing).
Best regards,
Emily Clancy Paradigm Pressroom&rsquo;s 5 Bullets

Enrique-marketcap

mobile masthead 5MIN

Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Paradigm’s top minds convened in Baltimore — where trading pro and former hedge fund manager Enrique Abeyta issued a monumental New Year’s prediction. 


Mega-Cap Meltdown in 2025

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Think Small
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Mainstream financial media settled into its narrative for the day even before the market opened.
&ldquo;S&amp;P 500 futures slide 1% on Palantir decline, rising concerns about AI stock valuations,&rdquo; said a CNBC alert on your editor&rsquo;s iPad.
Palantir, the deep state-connected spyware giant, delivered blockbuster earnings numbers after the closing bell yesterday. But management left the outlook into the latter half of 2026 a little hazy.
PLTR shares were down 6.7% at midmorning. CEO Alex Karp went on CNBC to hit out at short sellers. &ldquo;Honestly, I think what is going on here is market manipulation.&rdquo;
The nervousness about PLTR&rsquo;s nosebleed valuation (more than 200X forward earnings) is supposedly spilling into other AI-adjacent names, including &ldquo;Magnificent 7&rdquo; companies like Nvidia (down 3% as we write) and Google parent Alphabet (down 1.5%).
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The media need narratives to attract eyeballs. But narratives don&rsquo;t make you money.
&ldquo;The bull market is still in full force. In fact, I think we&rsquo;re setting up for a strong year-end rally,&rdquo; observes Chris Cimorelli.
Chris does make money, both for himself and his readers. He&rsquo;s the leader of Paradigm&rsquo;s 10X Trade Club and analyst for James Altucher&rsquo;s Microcap Millionaire advisory.
In a dispatch yesterday for Microcap Millionaire, Chris observed that in recent weeks, the Mag 7 names have done the heavy lifting for the stock market as a whole. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index has been treading water.
Looking at a chart, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s pretty clear which is outperforming the other,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;Microcaps have been moving mostly sideways, while Big Tech names have been moving up and to the right.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5OcXXfXJjZDtB0sqRbhcMX/a870dee3ccd993a1d990894eed04456d/FMF_Chart_Mag7-Lag2000_110425.png" alt="mag 7 chart" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As Chris sees it, this is a good thing for the market as a whole &mdash; and especially for the market&rsquo;s smallest stocks.
&ldquo;This looks like one of those classic &lsquo;generals leading the troops&rsquo; situations,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;The big names surge first, confidence builds, then the smaller names follow. It&rsquo;s how bull markets strengthen and broaden out&hellip;
&ldquo;Consolidations are normal. They let markets reset before the next leg higher. This just confirms that the bull market is still in full force.&rdquo;
What&rsquo;s more, &ldquo;There are some major catalysts working in our favor right now.&rdquo;
The Trump-Xi summit dialed down the trade-war tensions, at least for the time being. Meanwhile, there are rumblings from Washington that the &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; might come to an end in the next few days. (More about that shortly.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;There&rsquo;s one beaten-down sector James and I have had our eyes on lately that is set to benefit from both trade deals and an end to the government shutdown,&rdquo; says Chris.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s also one of the most interest-rate sensitive areas of the market, and with the Fed finally cutting interest rates, this forgotten sector is finally starting to wake up.&rdquo;
This is exactly the kind of setup Chris and James look for in Microcap Millionaire. &ldquo;James and I have spent hours researching different plays, and we&rsquo;ve finally pinpointed one that we think will explode as this sector comes roaring back to life.&rdquo;
For the moment, the name and ticker is a closely guarded secret &mdash; even for Microcap Millionaire subscribers. Chris is performing some last-minute due diligence even as he&rsquo;s on vacation in Japan. He&rsquo;ll issue the recommendation Thursday morning as the market opens.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Crude Awakening
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The price of crude is sinking back toward $60 amid more noise and nonsense about Western sanctions and Russian oil.
&ldquo;Russian Oil Finds Fewer Takes in China After Hit From Sanctions,&rdquo; says a breathless Bloomberg headline.
&ldquo;Chinese oil refiners, including state-owned giants and smaller private refiners, are shunning Russian shipments after the U.S. and others blacklisted Moscow&rsquo;s top producers and some of its customers.&rdquo;
As the veteran observer of energy markets Anas Alhajji observes on X, &ldquo;We&rsquo;ve heard similar stories so many times in the last two years, only to be proven wrong a few days later.&rdquo;
Word. More than two years, in fact. The first round of sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 were supposed to choke off Russia&rsquo;s energy revenue. Instead, China and India happily bought all the crude that Europeans decided to swear off.
Meanwhile, this morning&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal informs us that &ldquo;China has spent months building up its oil reserves. That might come in handy in the wake of the new sanctions the U.S. recently imposed on Russian crude.&rdquo;
Chinese customs data reveal that during the first nine months of 2025, the Middle Kingdom imported an average 11 million barrels a day &mdash; an amount exceeding the daily production of Saudi Arabia. And over 10% of that total went into China&rsquo;s strategic reserve.
Bottom line: Russian crude will continue to find willing buyers no matter what Joe Biden or Donald Trump have done. As long as Russian crude keeps reaching the market, there&rsquo;s an effective ceiling on the oil price until some sort of supply shock comes along.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As the day wears on, the alleged Palantir-driven sell-off is looking more like&hellip; a humdrum day in which the major averages are in the red.
The S&amp;P 500 is down about three-quarters of a percent, a hair&rsquo;s breadth below 6,800. The Dow&rsquo;s losses are narrower, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s steeper.
Precious metals are taking it on the chin again, gold down $44 to $3,956 and silver off 62 cents to $47.40. For perspective we&rsquo;ll remind you that $3,956 gold was a record high less than a month ago.
Digital nondollar assets continue to sell off &mdash; Bitcoin now approaching $103,000 (the lowest since late June) and Ethereum in danger of cracking beneath $3,500.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Airspace Shutdown?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Astonishingly, the airline stocks are holding up well this week despite two threats by Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to close at least some U.S. airspace.
Air traffic controllers are supposed to stay on the job despite the shutdown. But they&rsquo;re not getting paid. And the promise of back pay once the shutdown is over? Not enough to keep some of them from calling in sick (and perhaps taking on other jobs to make ends meet). There&rsquo;ve been ground stops at many U.S. airports in recent weeks.
&ldquo;If we thought that it was unsafe&hellip; we&rsquo;ll shut the whole airspace down,&rdquo; Duffy told CNBC yesterday.
&ldquo;You'll see mass cancellations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace, because we just cannot manage it," he said at a press conference today.
That&rsquo;s no small thing considering that three weeks from tomorrow is the day before Thanksgiving.
Airline stocks rallied yesterday despite Duffy&rsquo;s first threat. As he reiterated that threat today, the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) is down about 1.9%. But it&rsquo;s still no worse off than it was last Wednesday.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;We think that the government shutdown will end this week,&rdquo; Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta says on the daily-feed section of the Paradigm mobile app.
&ldquo;Love them or hate them, The Washington Post is super-plugged into D.C. and this was one of their headlines last night.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1Yg6xa7zTQmS9MW1M3B6oo/87e313794a26a63d3bf58933ef469eef/WaPoHeadline.png" alt="WaPo headline" />
The governor&rsquo;s elections in Virginia and New Jersey today amount to &ldquo;the first report card on Trump,&rdquo; says Sen. Mark Warner (D-Virginia). The Democratic candidates in both races are running against Trump as much as they&rsquo;re touting state issues. Should they win, the thinking goes, Republicans will start to bend on Obamacare subsidies and other issues.
Republicans also see an end in sight, on the theory that Democrats simply needed to stand tall ahead of Election Day and they can stand down afterward.
In the meantime, today is Day 35 of the shutdown &mdash; equaling the length of the 2018&ndash;2019 shutdown, which set a record.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Problems We Hadn&rsquo;t Started Thinking About Yet
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It seems there&rsquo;s a penny shortage.
Until yesterday your editor had forgotten that the Trump administration ordered an end to production of one-cent pieces in February.
It was a sensible decision, given the cost of production &mdash; 3.69 cents each. It was also a performative act of budgetary discipline at a time when DOGE was still making daily headlines. (Remember that?)
Production ended in May. The Treasury Department figured any shortages would be a 2026 thing &mdash; but the government isn&rsquo;t issuing any pennies to the banks, so the banks are rationing the pennies they give to businesses.
Result? &ldquo;We first heard about the issue in late August, early September," says Dylan Jeon of the National Retail Federation &ldquo;It's really impacting any business that deals with cash payments,&rdquo; he tells the BBC.
Solution? Many businesses are rounding the price of a sale at the cash register up or down to the nearest five-cent increment.
For the sake of customer goodwill, that usually means rounding down. The convenience store chain Kwik Trip &mdash; it has a fanatical following in the Upper Midwest like Wawa and Buc-ee&rsquo;s elsewhere &mdash; started doing so a month ago. The family-owned firm estimates the move will cost up to $3 million in revenue by year-end.
In other lines of business, &ldquo;Many stores are now urging customers to pay in exact change,&rdquo; says the BBC. &ldquo;Others are hosting promotions for customers to bring in extra pennies they have at home.&rdquo;
As we mentioned at the time of the Trump administration&rsquo;s announcement, the real outrage is that inflation is so out of control that there was a valid reason for the feds to stop minting pennies.
With that in mind, get this: It costs the U.S. Mint nearly 14 cents to make a nickel. Just sayin&rsquo;.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />A Miscellaneous Mailbag
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Read Buck's article and found it interesting,&rdquo; a reader writes after Buck Sexton&rsquo;s guest essay last Thursday.
&ldquo;I have always been a big Star Trek fan and this came to mind. In YouTube, search &lsquo;Swarm ships tear the Enterprise apart, Star Trek Beyond.&rsquo; To me the Enterprise could be an aircraft carrier and the swarm are drones.
&ldquo;There are other interesting episodes from the original Star Trek series in the &rsquo;60s that make you think. &lsquo;A Taste of Armageddon&rsquo; and &lsquo;The Ultimate Computer&rsquo; are two that come to mind. Again these are from the &rsquo;60s!
&ldquo;Keep up the good work.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Samsung? Why would anyone want one?&rdquo; a reader writes after our item last week about a &ldquo;smart&rdquo; refrigerator that serves up ads on its touchscreen.
&ldquo;I have had the &lsquo;pleasure&rsquo; of owning several Samsung refrigerators, sadly.
&ldquo;None of them has performed as advertised, and all have had many service calls to get them to operate at all for roughly half the lifetime I expected. The last one I will ever own is currently in my kitchen, with its second nonfunctional ice and water dispenser. The cost to replace it is so high that the repair guy said he wouldn't do it, because it is not worth the price and it will only break down again anyway. Apparently, he spends a lot of time fixing Samsungs.
&ldquo;Customer service is nonexistent, parts are very expensive and reliability is well below other brands. Now they want to add advertising to them! Why would anyone want one?&rdquo;
Dave: Hmmm&hellip; There&rsquo;s a circa-2021 Samsung microwave in your editor&rsquo;s kitchen. In no way is it a &ldquo;smart&rdquo; microwave; indeed it&rsquo;s so dumb I reset the clock when the power went out yesterday. (Which is fine by me.) We&rsquo;ll see how durable it proves to be.
I can give a hearty endorsement to Samsung TVs. My wife and I have two 27-inch models purchased from Costco in 2011. Both remain in daily use as computer monitors, one of them for the preparation of these daily missives.
The power cords can be a little squirrelly, and I had to replace one of them a few years back &mdash; but otherwise, recommended!

fmf hero 110425

Media Claptrap vs. Making Money

fmf-hero-110325

Data Centers in Space 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />SpaceX&rsquo;s $2 Billion Windfall
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />SpaceX is poised to receive about $2 billion to help build a new layer of America&rsquo;s missile-tracking architecture.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the funding &mdash; neatly folded into the &ldquo;One Big Beautiful Bill&rdquo; President Trump signed in July &mdash; is part of his <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-ultimate-white-house-insider">&ldquo;Golden Dome&rdquo;</a> missile-defense initiative.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2Jkh0DKDKHO0NWLnNVhfmb/c5ff22d5871ef23e801157ba9b30dc2b/Musk-NationalSecurity.png" alt="National Security" width="540px" />

Source: WSJ, X
The money wasn&rsquo;t publicly linked to a contractor at the time, but unnamed WSJ sources say it will go to SpaceX to develop satellites that can detect and track missiles and aircraft in flight.
Golden Dome is envisioned as a complex network of satellites and other technologies capable of intercepting missiles before they hit their targets. The Pentagon hasn&rsquo;t disclosed many details of how the shield would work and has yet to award most major contracts.
Here&rsquo;s what we do know: The plan calls for as many as 600 satellites in what&rsquo;s being described as an &ldquo;air-moving target indicator&rdquo; system. It&rsquo;s one piece of a much larger project that Trump has said could cost $175 billion, though analysts believe the total could run much higher.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> For SpaceX, the deal underscores how deeply the company has embedded itself in U.S. national security.
The Elon Musk-led private firm, best known for rocket launches and its Starlink internet network, has become an indispensable contractor for the Defense Department and the intelligence community.
Officials praise SpaceX&rsquo;s ability to build and launch satellites quickly &mdash; an advantage in an era when the military wants to refresh orbital technology at commercial speed.
&ldquo;What we&rsquo;re relying on is industry to help us innovate by showing us the art of the possible &mdash; bringing ideas to us,&rdquo; said U.S. Space Force (USSF) Gen. Chance Saltzman at an industry event last year.
SpaceX is also positioned to play a major role in two other Pentagon satellite constellations, WSJ reports.
One, called MILNET, is a planned low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite communications constellation intended to provide global communications for the U.S. military and intelligence community.
The other, known as the Ground Moving Target Indicator (GMTI) &mdash; being developed by the USSF together with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) &mdash; will enable satellites to track vehicles and ships from space.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />SpaceX has now launched more than 10,000 Starlink satellites, by far the largest fleet ever assembled, and has built a record for mass-manufacturing satellites on tight timelines.
That production capacity could prove crucial as the Trump administration pushes to get Golden Dome operational before the end of his term.
Not everyone is comfortable with SpaceX&rsquo;s growing dominance. Lawmakers and defense officials have warned against &ldquo;vendor lock,&rdquo; where the government becomes overly dependent on a single supplier. &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t want to end up where we pick one company and we go down a path,&rdquo; Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) said recently.
The Defense Science Board made a similar point last year, noting that dependence on one firm can &ldquo;negate the strengths of the market by stifling innovation and inflating prices.&rdquo;
Musk&rsquo;s erratic relationship with government agencies has also fueled caution. He&rsquo;s publicly threatened to withdraw services, for instance, such as hinting at ending SpaceX&rsquo;s Dragon spacecraft mission with NASA &mdash; a threat he later walked back.
Still, the government continues to rely on the company. As SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said at the end of an investor event last year: &ldquo;The government will get what they need &mdash; just like always.&rdquo;
The Pentagon says details of Golden Dome&rsquo;s architecture remain under review. But if timelines hold, and funding flows as expected, the company could soon become the backbone of America&rsquo;s next missile-detection system &mdash; an arrangement that would cement SpaceX as a central pillar of U.S. defense.

[BREAKING: One ticker symbol lets you grab a pre-IPO stake in Elon Musk&rsquo;s biggest, most ambitious project of his lifetime: SpaceX.
When you consider&hellip;
<blockquote>➔ First, Elon bet it all on PayPal and made millions...</blockquote>
<blockquote>➔ Then he bet it all on Tesla and made billions...</blockquote>
<blockquote>➔ Now, with the help of SpaceX, he&rsquo;s set to make trillions&hellip;</blockquote>
This is one of the only chances you&rsquo;ll ever have to own a pre-IPO stake in an Elon Musk company &mdash; before it goes public.
There&rsquo;s no paywall. No subscription. No credit card required to get this ticker symbol.
I urge you: <a href="https://new.crowdability.com/m2/12381">Watch the video and get the ticker now&hellip;</a> Before this presentation goes offline!]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Return of Money-Printing
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The Fed did exactly what Jim Rickards expected &mdash; it cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 4.00%. 
&ldquo;The rate cut was widely expected,&rdquo; Jim says. &ldquo;The Fed does not like to produce surprises if they can possibly avoid it.&rdquo;
The vote was 10&ndash;2, but what made it unusual was the split. One dissenter wanted a larger cut; another wanted none at all. &ldquo;Opposite dissents inside the FOMC,&rdquo; Jim notes, &ldquo;are a clear sign that Jay Powell is losing his grip on the committee.&rdquo;
In his press conference, Fed chair Jay Powell leaned heavily toward the employment side of the Fed&rsquo;s dual mandate. &ldquo;Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling,&rdquo; Powell emphasized. &ldquo;Job gains have slowed significantly since earlier in the year.&rdquo;
Jim interprets this as signalling the Fed&rsquo;s focus. &ldquo;The Fed is clearly more concerned about rising unemployment than lingering inflation,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;That tells you which way policy is headed.&rdquo;
With unemployment creeping higher &mdash; and private payroll data already showing job losses &mdash; Powell&rsquo;s balancing act is breaking down. The Fed is choosing to fight job losses now and hope inflation cooperates later.
&ldquo;Expect another cut before year-end,&rdquo; Jim forecasts. &ldquo;The Fed is following the markets, not leading them &mdash; and that&rsquo;s never good news for investors.&rdquo;
This meeting went beyond the headline cut, Jim adds. The Fed also ended quantitative tightening (QT) &mdash; a quiet but powerful shift. &ldquo;Ending QT means the Fed will start reinvesting the proceeds of maturing Treasuries and mortgage securities,&rdquo; he explains. &ldquo;That&rsquo;s another way of saying the Fed is printing money again.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Big Tech&rsquo;s Big Picture
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;With five of the Mag 7 stocks delivering results&hellip; this is the kind of week that tests portfolio positioning,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s pro trader Enrique Abeyta.
&ldquo;Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft together represent trillions in market capitalization and a massive share of the S&amp;P 500&rsquo;s performance.&rdquo;
Yesterday, we reported Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft earnings &mdash; almost universally solid earnings beats with one caveat. &ldquo;Meta blamed the EPS miss on ever-increasing AI capital expenditures during their earnings call,&rdquo; Enrique notes.
On Thursday, two more Mag 7 stocks announced earnings:
<ul>
<li>Amazon (AMZN) delivered a strong Q3 2025 showing, with its cloud arm Amazon Web Services (AWS) posting a year-over-year revenue increase of 20%, a pace the company says is the fastest since 2022. Moreover, Amazon issued guidance for Q4 net sales between $206&ndash;213 billion</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Apple (AAPL) reported its fiscal Q4 2025 (ended Sept. 27) earnings per share of $1.85, up 13% year-over-year and beating estimates, on revenue of $102.5 billion, up 8%. Apple also highlighted record revenues for its iPhone and Services segments, and CEO Tim Cook said he expects December to net &ldquo;the best ever&rdquo; for iPhone sales.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;Their earnings don&rsquo;t just move their own stocks,&rdquo; says Enrique, &ldquo;they shape the direction of the entire market, set the tone for tech sentiment and even influence Fed policy expectations.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Now, what does all of this mean for [your] investing strategy?&rdquo; he asks.
&ldquo;For investors, this cluster of reports is a readout on the health of global digital spending, cloud demand, advertising trends, AI investment and more.
&ldquo;Strong results from Alphabet and Microsoft reinforce the dominance of digital infrastructure and AI momentum,&rdquo; Enrique notes.
&ldquo;This suggests that growth-oriented investors can remain tilted toward mega-caps and Cloud/AI exposures. However, Meta&rsquo;s warning flags emphasize that costs still matter, even if they are AI buildout-related.
&ldquo;In the big picture,&rdquo; Enrique concludes, &ldquo;when five of the sector&rsquo;s heavyweights post in the same week, the market is laser-focused on their results
&ldquo;They give us investors not just a snapshot of today, but a template of what the next multiyear cycle might look like.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As if on cue, stocks are mostly in the green today. The tech-heavy Nasdaq&rsquo;s up almost 1% to 23,800; at the same time, the S&amp;P 500 is up 0.35% to 6,845. But the Big Board&rsquo;s just slipped into red territory, down to 47,515.
Just for kicks, shares of our most recent Mag 7 reporters, AMZN and APPL, are respectively up over 11%... and down 0.15%. MSFT, META and GOOG have also pulled back so far today.
Turning to commodities, oil&rsquo;s up 0.30% to $60.60 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Gold, meanwhile, is up 0.30% to $4,027.80 per ounce. But silver&rsquo;s down 0.15% to $48.55.
As for the crypto market, Bitcoin&rsquo;s up 3.15% to $110,140. And Ethereum&rsquo;s rallying: up 4% to $3,860.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" /> From Telegrams to Tokens
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Western Union has filed a U.S. trademark application for &ldquo;WUUSD,&rdquo; signalling a major move into the stablecoin/digital-asset space by the 175-year-old payments giant.
This filing comes on the heels of Western Union&rsquo;s announcement of the planned launch of a stablecoin &mdash; the U.S. Dollar Payment Token (USDPT) on the Solana blockchain &mdash; with rollout expected in the first half of 2026.
As for the WUUSD trademark application, it covers a broad spectrum of potential crypto-related services: digital wallet software, stablecoin payment processing, cryptocurrency trading, lending and brokerage or securities/derivatives exchange functions.
Western Union confirms it has partnered with Anchorage Digital Bank to build a &ldquo;digital asset network&rdquo; (DAN). This network is intended to enable customers to convert stablecoins into cash via Western Union&rsquo;s agent locations &mdash; bridging the digital-token world with traditional fiat off-ramps.
While the precise distinction between WUUSD and USDPT isn&rsquo;t fully clear (for example, whether WUUSD is a consumer-brand, a token symbol or a broader platform name), this step marks the company&rsquo;s strongest public signal yet toward transforming global payments with blockchain technology.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Spooky Season
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Halloween 2025 is about scary prices&hellip; 
Americans are expected to spend a bone-chilling $13.1 billion this year, with the average celebrant shelling out a record $114.45 for costumes, candy and decorations.
Overall, candy will gobble up nearly $4 billion, while costumes have crept past $4.3 billion.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3fMmvW3hyloVPQ651Mkw6P/db7f619e36d4e18359879581c714f6a4/Halloween-inflation.png" alt="Halloween Inflation" width="540px" />
Thanks to inflation, tariffs and even hard-hit cocoa harvests, you&rsquo;ll get fewer treats for every trick &mdash; so brace for &ldquo;shrinkflation&rdquo; in your candy haul.
Be that as it may, reader, embrace the spooky spirit, share a laugh and make the day a memorable one for family, friends and neighbors. Happy Halloween!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

SpaceX

SpaceX is poised to receive about $2 billion to help build a new layer of America’s missile-tracking architecture.

The Musk (Military) Industrial Complex

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Data Center Next Door
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />What once was a sleepy U.S. suburb or stretch of farmland has given rise to a new kind of neighborhood drama: the looming presence of data centers.
Take the case of Kay Richards, a homeowner who says the relentless thrum from the Amazon data center next door makes it hard to enjoy her own backyard.
Yet she&rsquo;s not ready to give up her dream home. &ldquo;Moving feels impossible,&rdquo; she says. &ldquo;But so does gardening with that racket.&rdquo;
NIMBY &mdash; &ldquo;Not in My Backyard&rdquo; &mdash; is no longer about big chain stores, shipping warehouses or housing developments. Today, anger is squarely pointed at the rows of low-slung, windowless data centers that quietly power the world&rsquo;s streaming movies, bank transactions and, increasingly, artificial intelligence.
Far from universally welcome, these server farms have become a flashpoint for grassroots activism across the U.S.
Residents&rsquo; complaints range from the practical to the existential: noise that drives them indoors, patchy power supply, disruptions to local water supplies and fears that property values might tank when a hulking digital fortress comes to town.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Industry trackers estimate that $64 billion worth of data center projects have been either delayed or blocked outright in the last two years due to local resistance. 
This opposition is waged by more than 140 grassroots groups in 28 states that are formally campaigning against new server farms.
In northern Virginia, the epicenter of &ldquo;Data Center Alley,&rdquo; there are more data centers than any other region in the world, and local campaigns have become both increasingly professional and tenacious.
Over 40 groups there have linked up under the Data Center Reform Coalition to demand tighter regulations and rethink development priorities.
Homeowner groups, conservationists and civic activists &mdash; Republicans and Democrats alike &mdash; agree that data centers, for all their invisible benefits, make troublesome neighbors when it comes to daily life.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Every data center requires enormous amounts of electricity and water, raising the specter of brownouts and ultra-high energy bills for those living nearby. 
&ldquo;Wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers,&rdquo; Bloomberg reports. &ldquo;That's being passed on to customers.&rdquo;
Water consumption, especially in drought-prone areas, is another battle cry, and when the facilities rely on fossil-fuel energy, residents worry they&rsquo;re undermining efforts for a greener power grid.
Albeit some industry voices offer a counterpoint. Lazard Asset Management analyst Shanu Mathew posted on X: &ldquo;The AI data center buildout, if implemented correctly, can accelerate our effort to modernize and upgrade the grids as we electrify the economy.&rdquo;
And clearly, the U.S. is going to need all hands on deck&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7vQp0ETbNw82V9H8yY2cvv/c6c8ba22b1eaaf78a606aab8759836ca/ShanuTweet.png" alt="shanu tweet" width="540px" />
Meanwhile, some local governments are touting the jobs and tax revenue data centers may bring, but others push back, pointing out the bulk of employment is front-loaded during construction.
Once built, for instance, a typical data center often requires fewer than 50 permanent jobs &mdash; hardly a windfall for towns that may pay a price in added noise, stress to local utilities or loss of green space.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The friction has spurred a wave of political action. State legislatures, county zoning boards and even national politicians are now devising ways to rein in the industry&rsquo;s rapid expansion.
Some call for strict environmental reviews. Others debate taxing data centers at higher rates or demanding that tech giants invest directly in local power grids or water infrastructure.
One reality remains: Wherever people live, the debate over data centers is unlikely to quiet down.
As digital services grow &mdash; and with AI and cloud computing still rapidly scaling &mdash; the demand for places to stash the world&rsquo;s data will only increase.
For many Americans, the question isn&rsquo;t just what powers the internet, but at what cost to the places they call home.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />AI&rsquo;s Moment of Truth
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Are we in an AI bubble?&rdquo; asks Paradigm editor Davis Wilson. &ldquo;We&rsquo;ll find out this week.
&ldquo;Wednesday and Thursday will likely determine the direction of the entire U.S. stock market for the rest of the year,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;That&rsquo;s when Big Tech steps into the earnings spotlight.
&ldquo;Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta report on Wednesday while Apple and Amazon follow on Thursday.
&ldquo;These aren&rsquo;t just the biggest companies in the S&amp;P 500. They&rsquo;re the core of the AI revolution. These are the firms building, training and deploying the world&rsquo;s most advanced models.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;And their spending plans will likely dictate the direction of the market for the rest of the year,&rdquo; says Davis.
&ldquo;Here&rsquo;s where we are: Four major tech firms &mdash; Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon &mdash; are expected to invest over $300 billion this year in AI infrastructure, primarily on GPUs from Nvidia and the data-center capacity to host them.
&ldquo;Here&rsquo;s the breakdown:
<ul>
<li>Microsoft said in July it expected to spend $30 billion in capital expenditures during the quarter, representing annual growth of more than 50%</li>
<li>Alphabet raised its full-year capex outlook to $85 billion, up from $75 billion</li>
<li>Meta boosted the midpoint of its 2025 capex forecast by $1 billion to $69 billion</li>
<li>Amazon plans to spend over $100 billion this year, signaling capex of about $31 billion per quarter in the second half.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s a staggering level of investment that shows no signs of slowing.
&ldquo;Still, there&rsquo;s an important caveat: This AI spending spree far outpaces the current revenue these companies are generating from AI today,&rdquo; he notes.
&ldquo;Investors are essentially front-running the payoff, assuming this massive investment will eventually translate into dominance once the technology matures.
&ldquo;That level of upfront spending is making some investors uneasy,&rdquo; Davis concludes, &ldquo;evoking echoes of the dot-com era as the market waits to see if these bets will pay off.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Nvidia (NVDA) just broke another record. The chipmaker&rsquo;s market cap surged past $5 trillion, cementing its place as the world&rsquo;s most valuable company. 
NVDA shares are already up 50% year-to-date as demand for its AI semiconductors continues to outpace supply. This as CEO Jensen Huang announces the company is preparing for as much as $500 billion in AI chip orders and is working with Washington to engineer as many as seven new supercomputers for the U.S. government.
At the time of writing, NVDA is up almost 4%. As for the rest of the stock market, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is leading the way: up 0.65% to 23,950. At the same time, the Big Board is up 0.50%, just under 48,000. In third place, the S&amp;P 500 is up 0.30% to 6,910.
<a id="3"></a>
Oil&rsquo;s getting a little love today; the price for a barrel of WTI is up 1.30% to $60.90. Precious metals, likewise, are enjoying some attention. Gold&rsquo;s up 1% to $4,023.70 per ounce while silver&rsquo;s up 1.65% to $48.10.
But the crypto market is staunchly in the red: Bitcoin&rsquo;s lost 1.40% to $112,300, and Ethereum&rsquo;s down 2% to $3,970.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Fed, Two Mandates, One Mess
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Inflation is moving steadily away from the Fed&rsquo;s 2.0% target,&rdquo; Jim Rickards warns. 
September&rsquo;s 3.0% reading was the highest since January, and &ldquo;it may go even higher in the months ahead as newly announced tariffs take hold in the supply chain,&rdquo; he adds.
Some might shrug at 3% inflation. Jim doesn&rsquo;t. &ldquo;That rate will cut the value of the dollar in half in 24 years,&rdquo; he notes, &ldquo;and again in another 24 years.&rdquo; Over a typical working career, he says, the dollar could lose &ldquo;75% of its purchasing power.&rdquo;
His takeaway for everyday Americans: &ldquo;What are you working for unless wages are going up faster than inflation?&rdquo; And as he often reminds readers, holding some gold can help &ldquo;offset [toxic] dollar devaluation.&rdquo;
But what&rsquo;s really forcing the Fed&rsquo;s hand at this week&rsquo;s FOMC meeting isn&rsquo;t inflation &mdash; it&rsquo;s jobs.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Unemployment has been quietly climbing for months: 4.1% in June, 4.2% in July, 4.3% in August.
Worse, revisions show the U.S. actually lost jobs in June &mdash; &ldquo;the first job loss reported since 2020.&rdquo; And private-sector data confirms the shift: ADP found employers cut 32,000 jobs in September.
Plus, Jim cites new data showing earlier job gains were massively overstated. In just the first quarter of 2025, the government &ldquo;overstated job creation by 911,000 jobs.&rdquo; Add late-2024 revisions and &ldquo;over 1.7 million jobs&hellip; disappeared.&rdquo;
The Fed still clings to the Phillips Curve &mdash; the theory that inflation and unemployment move opposite each other &mdash; but Jim calls it &ldquo;a joke.&rdquo;

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3tfwxUH9OJ33WzkDq58UVm/3134693ed50bdadb60c63d1935830873/Unemployement.png" alt="unemployement" width="540px" />

Source: Bloomberg, NISA Irretrievably kinked: &ldquo;A Phillips Curve on a graph [has] no predictive analytic power and offers no policy guidance,&rdquo; says Jim.
History shows both inflation and unemployment can go wrong at once, and that&rsquo;s exactly the risk today. So what will the Fed do? Simple, Jim says: &ldquo;They can&rsquo;t fight both battles at once.
&ldquo;On Wednesday, the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%,&rdquo; he forecasts. &ldquo;That decision will lower the federal funds target to 4.00%.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Boeing&rsquo;s $4.9 Billion Oops
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Boeing (BA) just dropped a $4.9 billion accounting charge and pushed back the debut of its massive new wide-body jet, the 777X, until 2027 &mdash; seven years behind schedule.
The fallout hit its quarterly earnings hard: a loss of $7.47 per share, far worse than the $4.44 analysts expected. Meanwhile, revenue came in at $23.27 billion, beating estimates around $22.3 billion.
Why does the $4.9 billion charge matter? It shows Boeing&rsquo;s still digging out of a deep hole. Yes, there&rsquo;s more bad news &mdash; the company posted negative free cash flow this quarter ($238 million). Guess that&rsquo;s better than a year ago when the company reported negative $1.34 billion&hellip;&nbsp;
Here&rsquo;s the extra kicker: Airlines like Deutsche Lufthansa AG (the launch customer for the 777X) and Emirates (the biggest buyer) are already reshuffling their fleet plans and assuming the jet won&rsquo;t drop before 2027.
The 777X, one of Boeing&rsquo;s most important future jets, has been such a headache that the accounting losses tied to it have ballooned to almost $16 billion. That&rsquo;s not pocket change &mdash; it&rsquo;s a long-term financial weight that Boeing will keep carrying until the plane finally gets into service and starts making money.
Meanwhile, Boeing delivered 160 aircraft in the quarter &mdash; its strongest showing since 2018 &mdash; hinting that some parts of the business may be stabilizing.
Bottom line: Even if a few indicators are improving, a multibillion-dollar setback on a flagship project is a harsh reminder that Boeing&rsquo;s turnaround isn&rsquo;t a clean glide path yet. There&rsquo;s still turbulence ahead.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />A Fridge Too Far?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Samsung has begun rolling out a new software update in the U.S. for its Family Hub smart refrigerators. 
This pricey appliance &mdash; $3,398 on sale today at my local Home Depot &mdash; already connects to your Wi-Fi, organizes your shopping and (maybe) stares into your soul while you hunt for leftovers.
[Speaking of Home Depot, here&rsquo;s a 1-star review of said refrigerator at HD&rsquo;s website, courtesy of Junk Fridge: &ldquo;I want to enjoy this fridge, but I&rsquo;ve had it a little over a month and it's on its third repair. The Wi-Fi would not stay connected, which was the first service. They replaced the Wi-Fi module and now [it] still does not stay connected&hellip;
&ldquo;The fridge works fine from a cooling perspective,&rdquo; &mdash; heh &mdash; &ldquo;but I could have gotten a much cheaper fridge if I wanted just a basic fridge.&rdquo;]
The latest feature? Starting on Monday this week, &ldquo;curated advertisements,&rdquo; according to Samsung. Yes, your refrigerator can now suggest more ways to part you from your money.
To Samsung&rsquo;s credit, you can disable the ads.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5denQKFdYOwUe1uL5AmLnS/e8144ecc24563bd036e0a3e2f9c933fe/image__171__copy.png" alt="ad" width="540px" />

Courtesy: Samsung
Overall, we expect the reception to be chilly.
Take care, reader&hellip; Tomorrow, we hand the mic to a guest who&rsquo;s been behind the doors of the most important company in the world. Don&rsquo;t miss it!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Gardening

What once was a sleepy U.S. suburb or stretch of farmland has given rise to a new kind of NIMBY drama. 

The Neighbor From Hell 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Who&rsquo;s Afraid of Zohran Mamdani?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Is it just me or does it seem a lot of people outside New York City feel really invested in the outcome of the mayor&rsquo;s race there?
The election is one week from today. The front-runner is a 34-year-old self-described &ldquo;democratic socialist&rdquo; named Zohran Mamdani. His top challengers are former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa. (Remember him?)
On one level, I get it. Out of every 200 Americans, five live in New York. It&rsquo;s the financial capital of the country. To some extent it&rsquo;s still the media capital.
But an awful lot of people who live outside the five boroughs seem frightened by Mamdani.
I mean, the MAGA &ldquo;influencer&rdquo; Rogan O&rsquo;Handley &mdash; one of the people who <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/sunspots-and-markets#while">beclowned himself with the &ldquo;Epstein binders&rdquo;</a> last winter &mdash; has an X profile that says he&rsquo;s based in Tampa. But he sure has strong opinions about events in New York&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1woPnTiMsHRgqCkzOhUrLZ/a96d3472fa7532dd72d12efe20eb72f3/DC_Draino.png" alt="DC Draino" width="540px" />
And then there&rsquo;s the hedge-fund billionaire <a href="https://x.com/goodworkmb/status/1943715402204237950">(and pro tennis player!)</a> Bill Ackman &mdash; recently described by Tucker Carlson as &ldquo;not particularly intelligent&rdquo; but &ldquo;hyper aggressive and well connected.&rdquo; While Ackman owns at least a couple of penthouses in New York, his residence is in Westchester County.
But there he is on X, frequently lashing out at Mamdani, saying for instance that his policies will &ldquo;result in increased crime, diminished public safety, fewer jobs and reduced tax revenues.&rdquo; He&rsquo;s endorsed Cuomo &mdash; and days ago he dropped $1 million on a &ldquo;super PAC&rdquo; opposing Mamdani.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> To be sure, there&rsquo;s much to not like about Mamdani&rsquo;s economic policies.
He supports a rent freeze that would make affordable housing even more scarce than it already is. He wants city-run grocery stores. He proposes taxpayer-funded daycare. He advocates for fare-free city buses.
Of course he wants to raise taxes on &ldquo;the rich&rdquo; and on corporations to pay for it.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />But Mamdani is also the only candidate who even acknowledges that living in New York is nigh-unaffordable for everyday folks.
Take a look at the viral video that by many accounts put him on the map. It runs only 93 seconds.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6f5F7PJFI356ll6cn2X7fM/e332673a70698902ae634606b58ae0b0/youtube_copy.png" alt="youtube" width="540px" />
Pretty persuasive, huh? You don&rsquo;t even have to buy into the socialism thing! You can be a 100% free marketeer like me and be totally on board with Mamdani here. New Yorkers pay $10 for a plate of chicken and rice that&rsquo;s worth $8 &mdash; and the only reason is that a corrupt NYC government doles out favors to special interests with clout.
Who other than scum of the earth like Andrew Cuomo would be for that?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Just as important, Mamdani comes off in this video like a real human being and not an animatronic blow-dried creation of a campaign consultant. He&rsquo;s the anti-Cuomo.
&ldquo;We don&rsquo;t just see him talking. We see him listening. And responding in ways that prove he is listening,&rdquo; writes the media coach and consultant Barry Nash.
&ldquo;His delivery is unscripted and unrushed. Authentic energy isn&rsquo;t about just going fast and being louder. That&rsquo;s performed energy, and viewers can see right through it. Authentic energy generates from clarity about what matters &mdash; and being present enough to respond in the moment.&rdquo;
[Editor&rsquo;s disclosure: I worked briefly with Mr. Nash during my TV news career.]
Here&rsquo;s what you need to know today: In the same way that the misrule of the Bushes and Clintons opened the door for Donald Trump&hellip; Mamdani&rsquo;s rise was inevitable in light of events that took place in New York long ago. Read on&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />New York 2025: No Place for the Middle Class
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The story of New York in 2025 is a story of &ldquo;the decades-long creation and maintenance of a financialized, factionalized city of free market distortions and middle-class displacement,&rdquo; researcher Matt Wolfson writes for the Libertarian Institute.
It started during Nelson Rockefeller&rsquo;s days as governor of New York State in the 1960s &mdash; a series of schemes that resulted in New York City&rsquo;s bankruptcy in the 1970s and a reorganization that redirected city funds &ldquo;to support financial development via investing in a real estate boom driven by a handful of connected players that attracted new &lsquo;talent&rsquo; to the city.&rdquo;
With that came the rise of Big Apple financial titans in the 1980s like the Tisch brothers, the Bronfman family, the sons of Estee Lauder, Hank Greenberg (the guy who ran AIG into the ground during the 2008 financial crisis) and Michael Milken, among others.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The process was put on steroids during billionaire Michael Bloomberg&rsquo;s tenure as mayor from 2002&ndash;2013.
&ldquo;Bloomberg&rsquo;s projects pushed in one direction,&rdquo; Wolfson <a href="https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/how-zionist-influence-in-new-york-gave-rise-to-zohran-mamdani/">writes</a>: &ldquo;using government policy and finance capital to redevelop the city to create a tourist and tech mecca. His opening gambit was rezoning 40% of the city. He then filled those rezoned spaces with public-private projects &mdash; parks, high-rises, high-end department stores &mdash; displacing middle- and working-class New Yorkers and driving up rents for everyone else.&rdquo;
Wolfson doesn&rsquo;t mention it in his article, but COVID lockdowns starting in 2020 were the proverbial last straw.
As author Naomi Wolf <a href="https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/letter-from-new-york">wrote</a> on her Substack page last year, &ldquo;The big developers had never previously managed to get their hands on Chinatown &mdash; with its prime real estate that was in the hands of small landlords &mdash; because the local culture and community and the small businesses that sustained the small landlords had been too strong.&rdquo;
But lockdown killed those small businesses.
The rest was history. Chinatown today? &ldquo;Gleaming new storefronts, with $400 jackets and $700 shoes, all curated and lit up like sculptures. Little art galleries, selling $12,000&ndash;25,000 works of modern art to wealthy, young, hip collectors. Chain bubble tea shops. Chain hotels.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> With the dispossession of New York&rsquo;s middle class and working class, the path was open for someone &mdash; anyone &mdash; who would give voice to their frustrations. 
In other words, the Mamdani phenomenon is more complex and nuanced than &ldquo;free stuff&rdquo; and &ldquo;tax the rich.&rdquo;
The candidates beholden to New York&rsquo;s power elite were caught flat-footed &mdash; namely Cuomo and current mayor Eric Adams, who dropped out of the race a few weeks ago and threw his support to Cuomo.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> That said, it looks as if Mamdani is willing to reach an understanding of sorts with the existing power structure.
During a debate last week, he said he would retain the current police commissioner Jessica Tisch &mdash; a favorite of the city&rsquo;s elites because she&rsquo;s one of them, a scioness of the aforementioned Tisch family.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But outside New York, both MAGA Inc. and the billionaire class seem united: Anyone but Mamdani. Even Andrew Freaking Cuomo.
Reminder: At the outset of COVID, Cuomo shoved elderly sick people out of hospitals and back into nursing homes &mdash; where they infected other people and where mortality rates shot through the roof. And he had the gall to publish a book about his &ldquo;leadership&rdquo; during that episode.
And this is the guy &ldquo;DC Draino&rdquo; says is a better alternative than an actual conservative like Curtis Sliwa who&rsquo;s polling 20%!
None of it makes any sense.
If you really believe the socialist agenda is doomed to fail and you live outside NYC, would a Mamdani win be that bad? Yes, it would suck for New Yorkers for four years, but then New York would serve as an object lesson to the rest of the country for decades to come about the failures of socialism.
Why don&rsquo;t Mamdani&rsquo;s most vocal critics adopt this stance?
Or does their virulent opposition spring from some other source that has nothing to do with economics?
We&rsquo;ll let that question hang as we move on to other matters&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Three Days in October
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Three things will dominate the market action from tomorrow through Friday &mdash; the Federal Reserve, earnings and the Trump-Xi summit.
The Fed has begun two days of meetings. At the conclusion of the meeting tomorrow afternoon, the benchmark fed funds rate will be lowered another quarter percentage point to 4%. No drama there.
Less publicized but arguably more important is that the Fed will likely announce an end to its &ldquo;quantitative tightening&rdquo; or QT program after 3&frac12; years.
&ldquo;QT is the opposite of quantitative easing or QE,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s macroeconomics authority Jim Rickards. &ldquo;Under QT, the Fed lets securities in its portfolio mature without investing the proceeds in new securities. This shrinks the Fed&rsquo;s balance sheet and is a kind of monetary tightening.&rdquo;
After the insane COVID-era ramp-up, the Fed has shrunk its balance sheet from nearly $9 trillion in mid-2022 to about $6.6 trillion today.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4eTXUgOazisdkRPUWWyBT7/08435f884d0bcc1d7d8bf54a994042f5/Assets.png" alt="assets" width="540px" />
&ldquo;By ending QT,&rdquo; Jim goes on, &ldquo;the Fed will buy new securities as old ones mature. They will print money to buy those securities. The end of QT is really QE in disguise although the Fed will not call it that.
&ldquo;This ease is in addition to the interest rate cut and shows just how worried the Fed is about rising unemployment.&rdquo;
A couple of hours after the Fed makes its move, Microsoft will report its quarterly numbers along with Google parent Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta. Thursday brings Apple and Amazon.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As noted here yesterday, the Trump-Xi summit Thursday is a potential wild card.
The major U.S. stock indexes sailed higher yesterday on expectations of a final deal between Washington and Beijing covering not only tariffs but also TikTok, fentanyl and rare earths. Any deal that falls short of those expectations could deliver a jolt to markets.
But that&rsquo;s a later-this-week story. For the moment, the indexes are reaching still higher into record territory. The S&amp;P 500 is the weakest of the bunch, up microscopically at last check to 6,878. But the Nasdaq is up over a quarter percent and the Dow nearly a half-percent.
Precious metals are stabilizing, sort of, after the latest smackdown yesterday. Gold is down about $22 to $3,958 while silver is up 11 cents to $46.94. Elsewhere in the commodity complex, crude is sinking back toward $60.
Crypto has been mostly quiet the last 24 hours, Bitcoin just over $115,000 and Ethereum back over $4,100.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Cost of Dying
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In recent years, &ldquo;most states have been moving away from estate or inheritance taxes or have raised their exemption levels,&rdquo; write the analysts at the Tax Foundation.
All else being equal, &ldquo;these taxes hurt states&rsquo; competitiveness and create incentives for costly and economically inefficient tax avoidance.&rdquo;
But these taxes remain in effect in 16 states and the District of Columbia &mdash; either estate taxes paid before the heirs get anything, or inheritance taxes paid directly by the heirs. (Maryland, home base for Paradigm Press, imposes both!)
Here&rsquo;s another one of the Tax Foundation&rsquo;s terrific maps. Click on the image and it takes you to a page where you can mouse over to see the exact amounts.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/v48QihMQSDxTK1x2Z3l5z/da814497e252542b8940e483bc75ad0b/EstateTax.png" alt="Estate Tax" width="540px" />
Junking these taxes, the analysts say, would &ldquo;promote the stability of family businesses, minimize economic distortions and prevent government overreach during an already difficult time for the friends and family of the deceased.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The good news is that on the federal level, the estate tax exemption of recent years will remain in effect indefinitely &mdash; or at least until Congress changes the tax code again.
The Trump tax cuts of 2017 raised the thresholds at which estate taxes kicked in. But those thresholds were set to revert to Obama-era levels at the end of this year if Congress didn&rsquo;t act.
The &ldquo;One Big Beautiful Bill Act&rdquo; made those higher thresholds permanent &mdash; and they will continue to be adjusted for inflation. For tax year 2026, the exemption rises to $15 million.
<blockquote>➢ Not-so-fun fact: Warren Buffett built an impressive portfolio of companies by buying them from cash-strapped heirs &mdash; including Dairy Queen.</blockquote>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />On Day 28 of the &ldquo;partial government shutdown,&rdquo; our thought for the day comes courtesy of Dale Gribble&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3d7Itvj14C8NJch5ICCWpJ/4b1861c1287cd99b118ecf403880c15b/Shutdown-Shakedown.png" alt="shutdown shakedown" width="450px" />
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

It seems a lot of people outside New York City feel really invested in the outcome of the mayor’s race there. 

Who’s Afraid of Zohran Mamdani?

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Mr. Huang Goes to Washington
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Nvidia is doing something today that it&rsquo;s never done before.
Today begins another one of the company&rsquo;s GTC events. GTC is short for &ldquo;GPU Technology Conference&rdquo; &mdash; focusing on the graphics processing units that are Nvidia&rsquo;s bread-and-butter.
Sounds humdrum unless you&rsquo;re a tech geek &mdash; but this event, first held in 2009, has come to be known as the &ldquo;Super Bowl of AI.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Nvidia&rsquo;s GTC has grown from a niche developer conference to the premier global stage for artificial intelligence and computing innovation,&rdquo; says the Perplexity AI engine &mdash; &ldquo;influencing trends and technology strategies across diverse industries.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> This week, for the first time, GTC is being held in the nation&rsquo;s capital &mdash; &ldquo;signaling how central Washington has become to the chip giant&rsquo;s ambitions,&rdquo; says the Axios site.
The main event is still held each year in San Jose. But this auxiliary conference at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center &ldquo;showcases Nvidia&rsquo;s deepening ties with the federal government&hellip;
&ldquo;The impact of AI on the workforce is top-of-mind for politicians in Washington, whose constituents worry about job displacement.&rdquo;
With that in mind, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will announce a &ldquo;Task Force on AI and the Future of Work&rdquo; &mdash; made up of people from industry, academia and government. It will deliver a final report a year from now.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Not mentioned in the Axios story is the relationship Huang personally is forging with the Trump administration &mdash; which surely looms even larger than the job issue.
In July, Donald Trump said in a speech that he returned to office this year with a mind to break up Nvidia.
&ldquo;I figured we could go in, and we could sort of break them up a little bit, get them a little competition, and I found out it&rsquo;s not easy in that business &hellip; Then I got to know Jensen, and now I see why.&rdquo;
Huang was in the audience. Trump asked him to stand up.
That same month, Huang made the case to Trump to allow the company to resume sales of AI chips to China &mdash; arguing that limits on Nvidia&rsquo;s chip exports would harm U.S. tech leadership and ultimately boost Chinese competitors. Trump eventually agreed to lift those limits &mdash; on the condition that the U.S. government collect a 15% cut of the sales.
The relationship is strong enough now that according to The Wall Street Journal, Huang helped persuade the president last week to change his mind about deploying troops to San Francisco.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7iwQcRLMgTWo1w8EWwL50h/7a38c23d4a03118c038479ea59aba998/Laura.png" alt="laura tweet" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Every GTC event features a keynote address by Huang &mdash; who, as we mentioned last year, has achieved a rock-star status akin to that of the late Steve Jobs.
Axios is very proud of getting a &ldquo;sneak peek&rdquo; at Huang&rsquo;s keynote, set for tomorrow at noon EDT.
"AI is the most transformative technology in human history &mdash; and the race is on," he will say.
"GTC D.C. brings together researchers, developers, business leaders and policymakers in the heart of our nation's capital to explore breakthroughs in AI, robotics, life sciences, energy, quantum and 6G &mdash; advancing innovations vital to America's technological leadership."
Scintillating, huh?
Well, we didn&rsquo;t expect Nvidia would release the good stuff to Axios ahead of time. And the good stuff could prove to be enormously lucrative, says Paradigm&rsquo;s AI authority James Altucher.
&ldquo;I predict Huang is about to announce Nvidia&rsquo;s next buyout target,&rdquo; James tells us.
&ldquo;Since 2008, Nvidia has acquired 25 companies. And just days before some of their biggest buyouts, this AI system flagged something called a &lsquo;blue spike.&rsquo;
&ldquo;Well, a brand-new blue spike has just been detected. Which means it&rsquo;s time to move.&rdquo;
Profit potential? Previous blue spikes have preceded money-multiplying gains of 25X&hellip; 52X&hellip; even 72X in only six days.
Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha readers have already made their move ahead of tomorrow&rsquo;s address. It&rsquo;s still not too late for you to do likewise. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2489841">Click here and James will show you how to take advantage of &ldquo;a potentially life-changing opportunity.&rdquo;</a>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The &ldquo;Imminent China Deal&rdquo; Rally
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The S&amp;P 500 rises almost 1% as hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal lifted the riskier corners of the market,&rdquo; says a Bloomberg alert on your editor&rsquo;s iPad.
&ldquo;Dow opens 300 points higher on potential China trade truce,&rdquo; CNBC concurs. Everyone got the memo.
Donald Trump has embarked on the first Asian visit of his second term as president. He&rsquo;ll meet on Thursday in South Korea with China&rsquo;s President Xi Jinping.
Yesterday, U.S. and Chinese negotiators meeting in Malaysia came to terms on what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls &ldquo;a substantial framework for the two leaders.&rdquo; He added, &ldquo;The tariffs will be averted.&rdquo;
And that&rsquo;s not all. Bessent promised a final deal on the sale of TikTok to U.S. investors&hellip; along with progress on everything from fentanyl to U.S. soybeans to those all-important Chinese rare earths.
As you&rsquo;ll recall, Beijing expanded its export controls on rare earth elements earlier this month &mdash; prompting Trump to threaten 100% tariffs on U.S. imports from China. On the Sunday talk-show circuit yesterday, Bessent said the Chinese government will &ldquo;delay that for a year while they re-examine it.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Just one thing, though: There&rsquo;s no such level of detail in the statements from Chinese officials, or news coverage in Chinese state media.
A statement from the government says both negotiating teams &ldquo;reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address their respective concerns&rdquo; and that &ldquo;both sides agreed to further finalize specific details.&rdquo;
That glaring lack of specificity also showed up in the coverage on China&rsquo;s English-language news channel, CGTN.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3NlvwwDMIBCcVkzbHrx32B/e7b2916168119abe195fd3be201a4fad/WorldToday.png" alt="world today" width="540px" />
Watching the prepared statement from Beijing&rsquo;s lead negotiator? It was like watching paint dry. And sound bites with Bessent were conspicuous by their absence.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />All of which is to say there&rsquo;s potential for stocks to take a spill between now and Thursday &mdash; if one side suddenly says the other has violated expectations.
But as noted above, that&rsquo;s not the story today. The S&amp;P 500 is sailing higher into record territory &mdash; up 0.9% at last check to 6,852. The Dow&rsquo;s gain is weaker, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s stronger.
&ldquo;Every week of earnings season, the media screams how it is a big week for earnings. This week it&rsquo;s actually true!&rdquo; says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta on the Paradigm mobile app. &ldquo;36% of S&amp;P 500 companies and 45% (!) of market capitalization&rdquo; will report this week.
That includes five of the &ldquo;Magnificent 7&rdquo; names. Google&rsquo;s parent Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta report on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It seems the narrative about a U.S.-China deal is also the excuse for a big precious metals sell-off.
At last check, gold is down $132 on the day to $3,979. Silver&rsquo;s gotten clobbered even worse, down $2.23 to $46.29.
But digital assets are hanging in there &mdash; Bitcoin approaching $115,000 and Ethereum at $4,161.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Rickards on the Russian Oil Sanctions
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Will President Trump&rsquo;s new sanctions on Russia&rsquo;s two biggest oil producers make a difference for negotiations in the Ukraine war?&rdquo; a reader writes Jim Rickards.
&ldquo;No. Sanctions won&rsquo;t work,&rdquo; Jim replied Friday in his weekly Q-and-A email for Strategic Intelligence subscribers. &ldquo;The Europeans have had 18 rounds of economic sanctions and none of them has worked. [That&rsquo;s not stopping them from working on a 19th round, by the way.]
&ldquo;The sanctions put on by the U.S. haven&rsquo;t worked either.
&ldquo;Russia got through the entire Cold War with almost no commerce with the United States. The fact is Russia has not missed a shipment of oil. All the oil that Europe doesn&rsquo;t want to buy, they&rsquo;re shipping to China and India. India&rsquo;s running refineries. They&rsquo;re buying Russian oil. China is selling refined product. China needs all the energy they can get.
&ldquo;Nobody else is joining in the sanctions,&rdquo; he goes on. &ldquo;Brazil, China, India, Malaysia and many other countries, none of these countries has joined the sanctions. Russia&rsquo;s not isolated. They might be isolated from France and Germany, and the U.S. to some extent, but not the rest of the world.
&ldquo;And they have huge reserve positions [in Russia]. They were very smart. They put over 25% of the reserves in physical gold bullion, which you cannot seize or freeze. These reserve positions are being bolstered by the higher price of gold, and they have a ton of trading partners. So this will all fail, and why anyone in the White House thinks otherwise is a mystery to me.&rdquo;
But there was the aforementioned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday &mdash; insisting India and China will stop buying Russian oil. Maybe that will trip up the China trade talks this week?
In the meantime, crude is up modestly to start the week at $61.64.
Oh, and here&rsquo;s one more facet of Russian resilience. Remember when Joe Biden said he&rsquo;d reduced the ruble to rubble?
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4ZW8mqDwoKqBQkzmabYuxA/1c30bbe0194a299bd5d99ce918cc4534/Brad.png" alt="brad tweet" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" /> Sign of the Times
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />File this one under &ldquo;discouraging, yet also hopeful&rdquo;...
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4x0XQvWPO4hEgPxRel0JOF/5f55d72b2021a74eb7d3d053a9d95336/Her.png" alt="her thoughts" width="450px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Debt and Extraction
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Dave, you&rsquo;re right to sound the alarm about our $38 trillion debt and the economy heading south,&rdquo; writes one of our regulars after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/without-ai-the-economy-is-toast">Friday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;The real story, however, isn&rsquo;t fiscal irresponsibility &mdash; it&rsquo;s systemic extraction.
&ldquo;The assumption that politicians or the elites behind them are concerned about ballooning debt is the most incredible illusion of all. They&rsquo;re not worried; they&rsquo;re winning. The game isn&rsquo;t about balancing budgets or saving the republic. It&rsquo;s about siphoning as much as possible from the productive economy &mdash; taxpayers, savers, workers &mdash; into the hands of those who own and control the machinery of finance and government.
&ldquo;Government is the perfect conduit. Trillions flow through it annually. Complaining about &lsquo;spending&rsquo; misses the point &mdash; spending is the point. Extraction disguised as governance. The identical dynamic drives Wall Street, private equity, real estate and even crime. The method differs, the motive doesn&rsquo;t: Convert everything into owned assets, consolidate power and keep the public chasing slogans about prosperity and patriotism.
&ldquo;No one in power is trying to &lsquo;make America great.&rsquo; They&rsquo;re busy making themselves untouchable. The game isn&rsquo;t mismanaged &mdash; it&rsquo;s rigged by design. Until we name that truth, headlines about debt are just theater.&rdquo;
Dave responds: &ldquo;Extraction&rdquo; is an excellent word &mdash; one I&rsquo;ve <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2021/08/10/extraction-10-years-later/">invoked</a> a few times over the years, probably not often enough.
Nothing changes until <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/luigi-mangione-isnt-the-problem">the health-care cartel</a> and <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/a-totalitarian-bureaucracy-within-our-shores">the military-industrial complex</a> are broken.
The Treasury&rsquo;s <a href="https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0925.pdf">final statement for fiscal year 2025</a> shows that spending by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services totaled $2.485 trillion &mdash; up 11.8% from the previous year. Uncle Sam spends an astonishing 35.4% of the federal budget on health care. Fifteen years ago, it was &ldquo;only&rdquo; 25%.
Meanwhile, the &ldquo;One Big Beautiful Bill Act&rdquo; pushed Pentagon spending up $150 billion annually so that Donald Trump could boast about the first $1 trillion military budget.
The real military budget is much higher once you account for the intelligence budget, Homeland Security, nuclear weapons under the auspices of the Energy Department, veterans&rsquo; health care&hellip; and of course, the national-security state&rsquo;s share of interest on the debt. In 2022, Quincy Institute analyst William Hartung said total military spending by that yardstick already exceeded $1.4 trillion.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And here&rsquo;s a stunning new development: The International Monetary Fund projects America&rsquo;s debt burden will exceed those of Italy and Greece by 2030.
From the Financial Times: &ldquo;General government gross debt in the U.S. will rise by more than 20 percentage points from now to reach 143.4% of the country&rsquo;s GDP by the final year of the decade, IMF forecasts show, exceeding previous records set after the pandemic.&rdquo;
If you have a long memory, you&rsquo;ll recall Italy and Greece were at the center of a crisis in European government debt from 2010&ndash;2012.
That&rsquo;s where we&rsquo;re going &mdash; and no one on either side of the aisle in Washington intends to do anything about it.
It&rsquo;ll be great for precious metals, which happen to be on sale today. Take advantage.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

video-game

Nvidia is doing something today that it’s never done before.

NVDA Comes to D.C.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Without AI, the Economy Is Toast
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Two leading economists, working independently, have reached the same conclusion: AI spending is the only thing propping up the U.S. economy in 2025.
&ldquo;AI has kept the economy out of a recession.&rdquo; declares James Egelhof, chief U.S. economist with the French banking giant BNP Paribas.
All the money corporate America is pouring into data centers and high-end chips? &ldquo;The AI boom has convinced the broader business community that a robust expansion and productivity surge lies just over the horizon,&rdquo; Egelhof told a roundtable of reporters this week.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Separately, Harvard economist Jason Furman says that without billions of corporate dollars pouring into data centers, U.S. GDP would have grown a measly 0.1% annualized during the first half of 2025 &mdash; and not the 1.6% reported by the Commerce Department.
Here&rsquo;s how Furman arrives at that figure.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2mVjYeaxchjUky8FhXHzRs/27e80ec1aacf4b05858da8fe85d05e72/Jason.png" alt="jason tweet" width="540px" />
Furman is an Establishment hack &mdash; he ran the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Barack Obama&rsquo;s second term &mdash; but he&rsquo;s probably onto something here.
Consider the following figures:
<ul>
<li>According to Goldman Sachs, AI &ldquo;hyperscalers&rdquo; like Amazon, Microsoft and Google now account for more than a quarter of all capital spending among S&amp;P 500 companies &mdash; growing at a blistering 75% annual pace</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>According to Renaissance Macro, the dollar value contributed to GDP growth by the buildout of datacenters now exceeds that of consumer spending.</li>
</ul>
As Fortune points out, &ldquo;That&rsquo;s remarkable considering consumer spending is two-thirds of GDP.&rdquo;
Or maybe it&rsquo;s not so remarkable in light of what Emily spotlighted in yesterday&rsquo;s edition: Auto loan and credit card delinquencies are back to levels seen during and after the 2008 financial crisis. Below the top 10% of income earners &mdash; folks who&rsquo;ve also booked big AI gains in their portfolios &mdash; the mighty American consumer is on his heels. (Maybe you&rsquo;ve noticed that among your friends and neighbors? Or your adult children?)
As Eglehof suggested a moment ago, there&rsquo;s nothing out there to arrest this trend for the moment &mdash; especially now that the Federal Reserve has embarked on a new interest rate-cutting cycle.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> How to profit from the next round of AI spending? Well, the 800-pound gorilla of AI companies, Nvidia, is hosting its annual GTC event next week in Washington, D.C.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s where developers, industry leaders and innovators come together to discuss all of the latest discoveries in the artificial intelligence industry,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s AI authority James Altucher. &ldquo;And it&rsquo;s where Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang tends to make the company&rsquo;s biggest announcements.&rdquo;
James expects a major announcement next Tuesday at noon EDT. And based on his own proprietary AI algorithm, he expects that announcement to unleash a profit opportunity similar to those in the past that have generated peak gains of 2,350%... 5,133%... and even 7,100% in only six days.
Subscribers to Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha already know what to do in advance of Huang&rsquo;s presentation. If you&rsquo;re not among them, <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2489681">you owe it to yourself to click here and check out what James has to say right away</a>.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Inflation, Social Security, Record Highs
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The big market story today is the release of the September inflation numbers, &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; notwithstanding.
The bad news &mdash; for Main Street, anyway &mdash; is that the official inflation rate ticked up from 2.9% to 3% &mdash; the highest since January.
The good news &mdash; for Wall Street, certainly &mdash; is that the number clocked in lower than expected. Lower-than-expected inflation likely means the Federal Reserve will continue cutting short-term interest rates at its next meeting five days from now. And probably again at the meeting after that in mid-December.
Today&rsquo;s release of the consumer price index was nine days late. Already the White House is warning that as long as the shutdown continues, there won&rsquo;t be an October inflation report next month.
As we&rsquo;ve pointed out for a couple of weeks now, the only reason the Bureau of Labor Statistics cobbled together the September report is that the Social Security Administration needs those numbers to set next year&rsquo;s cost-of-living adjustment for retirees.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And with today&rsquo;s release, the Social Security COLA for 2026 will be 2.8%.
For the average recipient that translates to a $56-a-month jump to $2,064. As we say every year, don&rsquo;t spend it all in one place.
Worse, that jump will be offset for many seniors by rising premiums for Medicare Part B. The 2026 increase is still in flux &mdash; but over the summer the Medicare program&rsquo;s trustees estimated the standard premium would jump from $185 to $206.50.
Meanwhile, if you&rsquo;re still in the workforce, the threshold at which Social Security taxes are no longer collected on your income rises from $176,100 to $184,500 &mdash; a 4.8% jump.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As hinted at above, the market reaction to the lower-than-expected inflation numbers is euphoric.
At last check the S&amp;P 500 has sailed nearly 1% higher to a record 6,800. The gains in the Dow and the Nasdaq are even more impressive.
For once this week, there&rsquo;s no meaningful action in the precious metals: Gold is nearly flat from yesterday at $4,126, while silver is down slightly to $48.69. The mining industry&rsquo;s big dog, Newmont, is down 4% despite reporting gangbuster quarterly numbers after the close yesterday&hellip; and the action in NEM is dragging down the HUI index of mining stocks nearly 1%.
The crypto market is little moved today despite news that JPMorgan will allow its institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for loans by the end of this year. Bitcoin sits a hair over $110,000 while Ethereum is just over $3,900.
Crude continues to bounce off five-month lows, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate set to end the week over $62 &mdash; up substantially from less than $57 on Monday.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />&ldquo;A Trillion Here, a Trillion There&hellip;&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> For the record&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5p3EhrRYbvchc6Ysj1jzrN/945b738af0f023e81851887d34e0128d/Clint.png" alt="clint tweet" width="540px" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6hGGzk6WaygkYreicLPYW4/1f78edac187d2226465abac598073cfa/Spencer-10-24.png" alt="spencer tweet" width="540px" />
The national debt hit $37 trillion in August. It hit $38 trillion this week. That&rsquo;s the fastest trillion-dollar accumulation of debt outside the pandemic.
And people wonder why the inflation rate keeps inching higher this year.
A few days ago, the Treasury issued Uncle Sam&rsquo;s final income-and-outgo numbers for fiscal year 2025 &mdash; which ended Sept. 30. Here&rsquo;s how they compare with the previous year&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4SK4ndsbr6SSwQftIKAts2/bb0b72d6b8677c813e25b92fe0a78f3d/TreasuryTableAnnual.png" alt="table" width="540px" />
Yes, the annual budget deficit shrank by 2.8% compared with a year earlier &mdash; largely thanks to tariff revenue.
But spending grew 3.9% despite the much-ballyhooed efforts of DOGE. Zeroing in on the eight full months of the Trump administration, spending did fall by a microscopic amount &mdash; but it would have risen substantially absent some accounting gimmickry with the student loan program.
And get this: Net interest on the debt in fiscal 2025 totaled $971 billion.
As gold expert Don Durrett tweeted this week, &ldquo;We are borrowing $2T annually to pay $1T in interest. Do the math. It doesn&rsquo;t work. The clock is ticking.&rdquo;
Sure is. The annual budget deficit works out to 5.9% of GDP. It&rsquo;s a slight improvement from the previous year&rsquo;s 6.4% &mdash; but it&rsquo;s still unprecedented for an era when there&rsquo;s no world war, no global financial crisis and no pandemic. At this rate, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent&rsquo;s goal of reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP by the end of 2028 looks like a pipe dream.
<blockquote>➢ Reminder: Under the &ldquo;One Big Beautiful Bill Act,&rdquo; the debt ceiling kicks in again once the national debt reaches $41.1 trillion. We&rsquo;re only $3.1 trillion away now. There will be another debt-ceiling drama in Washington before the end of Trump&rsquo;s term.</blockquote>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Inspired Advertising
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />On the theory that there&rsquo;s no such thing as bad publicity&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7awphylufgdeeCobUpbigD/d978b3ac53b4e41769c24c76b37ea723/Bocker.png" alt="brocker" width="350px" />
That&rsquo;s an Instagram post by the German firm B&ouml;cker &mdash; making the most of the fact that one of its lifts was used for the brazen break-in at the Louvre in Paris last weekend. In only eight minutes, the thieves made off with $102 million in jewelry.
&ldquo;When you&rsquo;re in a hurry, the B&ouml;cker Agilo carries your heavy treasures,&rdquo; it says.
B&ouml;cker&rsquo;s managing director Alexander B&ouml;cker tells the AFP newswire that he recognized his company&rsquo;s machine from the news coverage. Given that no one was hurt, he figured it was &ldquo;an opportunity for us to use the most famous and most visited museum in the world to get a little attention for our company."
And it seems the reaction is overwhelmingly favorable. &ldquo;Your messaging takes the crown,&rdquo; says one commenter.
As B&ouml;cker tells Reuters, &ldquo;We have even had feedback from abroad saying, &lsquo;Hey, you Germans do have a sense of humor after all.&rsquo;&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Parting Shot(s)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As long as we have the Louvre on the brain, let&rsquo;s wrap it up with some quality memeage&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5eFeMecTIROKVlgUt1sHoA/dc7cbc18120aa28d1ef3f0f62ef7223c/Lourve1.png" alt="Lourve" width="400px" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1VlkooiISXOLTHdwklFf2c/64de65794fcc4b8a6b6b69acc1e2180e/Louvre.png" alt="Lourve" width="400px" />
Have a good weekend,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

economy-ai

Two leading economists, working independently, have reached the same conclusion: AI spending is the only thing propping up the U.S. economy in 2025.

Without AI, the Economy Is Toast

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Nexperia: Ground Zero of Tech&rsquo;s Cold War
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The chipmaker Nexperia, headquartered in the Netherlands, now sits at the center of the escalating U.S.&ndash;China trade war &mdash; one that&rsquo;s rippling across the global economy, hitting everything from car production to consumer electronics.
On Sept. 30, the Netherlands&rsquo; minister of economic affairs invoked the rarely used Goods Availability Act, a Cold War-era law allowing the state to take control of firms deemed vital to national security.
Officials cited &ldquo;serious governance shortcomings&rdquo; and the need to protect critical technology on European soil. The move effectively stripped Nexperia&rsquo;s Chinese owner, Wingtech Technology, of operational control &mdash; though production will continue under Dutch supervision. (Hold that thought.)
Nexperia produces 100 billion chips each year, supplying, for instance, around 35&ndash;40% of the automotive industry&rsquo;s discrete transistors: the inexpensive but essential parts that make cars, phones and appliances function.
A week after the takeover, Dutch courts further suspended Wingtech founder and Nexperia CEO Zhang Xuezheng (&ldquo;Wing&rdquo;), appointing a local chief in the interim.
The Hague framed the decision as an emergency measure to &ldquo;secure supply continuity&rdquo; and prevent the loss of &ldquo;vital technological expertise&rdquo; to foreign powers.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />While the Dutch cited domestic legal grounds, Washington clearly played an outsized role.
On Sept. 29, Washington detonated its new &ldquo;Affiliates Rule,&rdquo; extending U.S. export-control restrictions to any foreign subsidiary 50% owned by a listed Chinese entity.
It&rsquo;s a sweeping shift that potentially ropes in thousands of firms and tightens the noose on Nexperia&rsquo;s access to U.S. markets.
U.S. officials reportedly told The Hague that replacing Zhang could help Nexperia qualify for exemptions from these new rules.
China, shockingly enough, saw the move as political interference. State media called it an &ldquo;outright expropriation,&rdquo; while officials in Beijing accused the Netherlands of acting &ldquo;under direct U.S. pressure.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On Oct. 4, China&rsquo;s commerce ministry retaliated, barring exports of Nexperia products out of China. 
This was a critical hit because a large share of the company&rsquo;s output is assembled and tested in China before global shipment.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2yTwZMpSgupkEO3aVeq0L3/3be7ea9395087a9a7566f37be5174465/SI.png" alt="SI Tweet" width="540px" />
&ldquo;Nexperia China, the local unit of the Dutch chipmaker, [told] its employees to follow orders from local management and ignore instructions from the Dutch head office, according to a letter issued to employees,&rdquo; says the South China Morning Post. 
At the same time, Beijing rolled out a fresh round of broad export controls covering rare earth minerals, magnets and battery components &mdash; with provisions that extend Chinese jurisdiction to some items produced abroad using Chinese tech.
In the last 48 hours, China has now agreed to urgent talks in Brussels with the European Union. The agreement followed a two-hour call between the EU&rsquo;s trade commissioner and China&rsquo;s commerce minister, during which Brussels pressed for &ldquo;immediate solutions&rdquo; to China&rsquo;s new licensing rules.
The EU argues restrictions threaten Europe&rsquo;s high-tech industries, while Beijing insists they&rsquo;re lawful and aimed at securing supply chains.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Although the low-end chips Nexperia produces might lack the sophistication of AI chips from Nvidia or AMD, they form the foundation of global electronics manufacturing.
A prolonged disruption could idle auto plants, inflate consumer prices and strain alliances in Europe. Simply put, you can&rsquo;t run an advanced economy without the cheap chips that make everything work.
What began as a seemingly technical trade dispute has become a test of how far the U.S. and EU are willing to go to contain China. But they might have irreparably overplayed their hand.
<ul>
<li>This just in: Volvo and Volkswagen warn of possible factory shutdowns in Europe, and Japan&rsquo;s auto association urges a diplomatic fix as Mercedes-Benz and GM monitor the fallout. Meanwhile, Nexperia&rsquo;s Dutch and Chinese divisions trade accusations over product quality and control.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;The damage China is capable of spans far beyond the automotive sector,&rdquo; says an article at Substack account Doomberg. &ldquo;A scan of market-cap rankings in the S&amp;P 500 reveals dozens of similar vulnerabilities: Apple, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Coca-Cola, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Walt Disney &mdash; the tally of firms with high concentration risk in China is a long one.
&ldquo;[The] U.S. cannot decouple from China in the short- or even medium term,&rdquo; the article emphasizes, &ldquo;without collapsing its own economy and stock market.&rdquo; And the more Washington pressures its partners to &ldquo;decouple&rdquo; likewise, the more it risks fracturing the very supply chains the West depends on.
Ultimately, this episode isn&rsquo;t just about one Dutch chipmaker; it&rsquo;s about who controls the infrastructure of the global economy. In this fight, even the smallest chips could carry the biggest consequences.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Seasonality Says &ldquo;Game On!&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Oct. 20 is the OFFICIAL start of the best seasonality period for the stock market,&rdquo; notes pro trader Enrique Abeyta at the Paradigm Press app&rsquo;s Daily Feed feature.
&ldquo;Goldman Sachs points out this morning that from Oct. 20&ndash;Dec. 31, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have averaged respective returns of +4.16% (since 1928) and +8.48% (since 1985). Game On!&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2HBpe5Cu2W4HYp786zpmnS/0425a08c0a416b727c0003ed729afa90/image__153_.png" alt="SPX Flow of Funds" width="540px" />
Enrique adds: &ldquo;Looking back over the last 25 years, there have been FOUR times when the S&amp;P 500 was at least +14% at this point of the year: 2013, 2019, 2021 and 2024.
&ldquo;The market was higher the rest of the year ALL four times,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;an average of +8.5%.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6CkH7hWcIZrfMBg3GwmVSf/cf9edb9b50effdcfa97514f141705541/image__158_.png" alt="chart2" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Crude Ultimatum
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The standoff between the U.S. and India over Russian oil may finally ease, but not because of diplomacy. 
For months, President Trump has claimed that India was about to stop purchasing Russian crude, even though imports have remained steady &mdash; about 1.5&ndash;1.8 million barrels per day, according to Kpler. Those shipments have saved India billions and helped keep Moscow&rsquo;s war economy afloat.
Now new U.S. Treasury sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil &mdash; the two biggest Russian oil producers &mdash; could force India&rsquo;s private and state-run refiners to reevaluate. Reliance Industries, India&rsquo;s biggest private refiner, for instance, says it&rsquo;s already &ldquo;recalibrating&rdquo; purchases.
While Washington frames this as pressure on Russia, the reality is blunter: The U.S. is using financial leverage to strong-arm India into line. For India, the discounts on Russian oil had already shrunk, so the economics may no longer justify the risk.
India may decide the better deal now is with Washington instead of Moscow. But it won&rsquo;t be out of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/indias-not-blinking">friendship.</a>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> With that, the price of crude is up 5% to $61.40 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Other commodities, including precious metals are rallying: Gold&rsquo;s up 2.45% to $4,165.30 per ounce, and silver is up 2.70%, pennies under $48.
Tesla (TSLA) posted strong Q3 revenue of $28.1 billion yesterday afternoon, up about 12% year-over-year, helped by a surge in vehicle deliveries as buyers rushed to claim expiring U.S. EV tax credits.
However, the company&rsquo;s operating profit fell roughly 40% from a year ago amid higher costs, lower regulatory-credit income (money Tesla earns by selling carbon/emission credits to other automakers) and tariff headwinds.
Elon Musk used the earnings call to draw attention to self-driving &ldquo;robotaxi&rdquo; plans to expand testing without safety drivers into several metro areas by year-end.
At the time of writing, TSLA shares are down almost 2%. As for the overall stock market, the three major indexes are clawing back some of yesterday&rsquo;s losses. The Nasdaq is up 0.60% to 22,875 while the S&amp;P 500 and Dow are 0.35% and 0.10% &mdash; to 6,720 and 46,635 respectively.
Meanwhile, the crypto market is flashing green. Flagship crypto Bitcoin is up 1.60% to $109,880; Ethereum&rsquo;s up 1.40% to $3,865.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The &ldquo;Two-Speed Economy&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />U.S. auto loans are now flashing red: A study by VantageScore shows delinquencies have surged 50% over the past 15 years. 
According to Fitch Ratings, 6.43% of subprime auto borrowers were at least 60 days behind on payments in August &mdash; matching January&rsquo;s record and far above the 2008 crisis peak of 5.04%. When Fitch began tracking the data in 1993, for instance, that figure was just 0.12%.
Last year, 1.73 million vehicles were repossessed. That&rsquo;s the highest number since 2009, says Cox Automotive. And America&rsquo;s total auto debt has climbed to $1.66 trillion, roughly double what it was a decade ago.
Much of that debt has been sliced into asset-backed securities, or ABS, and sold to investors. That structure &mdash; eerily similar to the subprime mortgage market before 2008 &mdash; is now showing strain.
Wall Street is already on edge after the collapses of subprime lender Tricolor and car-parts supplier First Brands in September. &ldquo;When you see one cockroach, there&rsquo;s probably more,&rdquo; warned JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.
Goldman Sachs President John Waldron adds: &ldquo;We may, we probably will, have some defaults &mdash; and it&rsquo;s not going to be pretty.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Waldron cautions that the credit boom has created a &ldquo;two-speed economy,&rdquo; where corporate borrowers and households on the lower rungs are beginning to buckle under the same pressures. 
The pain is showing up first in consumers&rsquo; garages. The average new car in America now costs more than $50,000, up 35% since 2019. And monthly payments average $761 for new vehicles and $570 for used ones, according to Edmunds.
&ldquo;Consumers are buying the same car they owned before, but their payments are $300 more a month,&rdquo; said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds&rsquo; head of insights.
Debt counselors are overwhelmed. The nonprofit American Consumer Credit Counseling (ACCC) reports 53,900 calls this year&mdash; up 63% from 2019. &ldquo;People are using their credit cards for basic living expenses,&rdquo; says Kenneth Mohammed of ACCC.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1YrTrq8WnyPT3dJtkp1ur9/ca87237fcfa26043534268d0ee4cf1e6/Kurt.png" alt="kurt tweet" width="540px" />
ACCC&rsquo;s average client debt has jumped 60% in five years to $30,000, and many clients earn $75,000 or more annually &mdash; evidence the crisis has climbed the income ladder.
Meanwhile, about 30% of traded-in car loans are now underwater, with buyers rolling almost $7,000 in old debt into new loans.
&ldquo;That should send off alarm bells,&rdquo; warns Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody&rsquo;s Analytics. &ldquo;You&rsquo;re seeing all this stress while everyone still has a job &mdash; so what happens if people start losing them?&rdquo;
Waldron is more straightforward: Private credit and bank lending &ldquo;belong to the same system,&rdquo; he says, and if defaults continue to cascade, &ldquo;all participants will be affected.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />&ldquo;Where We&rsquo;re Going, We Don&rsquo;t Need Roads&rdquo; 
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Aerospace startup Inversion has an intrepid new pitch: Drop emergency supplies from space &mdash; anywhere on Earth, in under an hour. 
The company&rsquo;s plan centers on its Arc orbital reentry vehicle, a reusable capsule that can carry about 500 pounds of cargo.
The Arc sits parked in low-Earth orbit until needed. When called upon, it detaches from its service module, blazes through the atmosphere at Mach 20-plus and glides to a landing by steerable parachute.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1PiLnBSVU2lZai9Z05vavM/a1743b7513c808c52762952847e8fcbb/inversion.png" alt="inversion" width="540px" />

Source: Inversion &ldquo;They paved paradise and put up a parking lot.&rdquo;
Unlike traditional supply chains &mdash; hampered by distance, politics or bad infrastructure &mdash; the Arc could reach remote or hostile areas that no plane or truck could.
&ldquo;With massive cross-range to cover great distances during reentry, and high maneuverability throughout every phase of flight, Arc delivers a transportation capability that has never existed before,&rdquo; says Justin Fiaschetti, Inversion&rsquo;s co-founder and CEO.
Inversion imagines thousands of these orbiting couriers forming a global logistics web for military, humanitarian and disaster-relief operations.
While everyone else is figuring out drone delivery&hellip; Inversion just decided to skip a step?
Take care, reader! Join us tomorrow for a fresh 5 Bullets&hellip; 
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

nexperia

The chipmaker Nexperia, headquartered in the Netherlands, now sits at the center of the escalating U.S.–China trade war. 

Ground Zero of Tech’s Cold War

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Private Equity&rsquo;s JV With the Pentagon
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Call it &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; Phase III.
Paradigm&rsquo;s macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards turned heads last winter with a bold proposition &mdash; that the new Trump 47 administration was keen to tap into the vast mineral wealth under federal lands west of the Mississippi River. Potential value of this bounty: $150 trillion.
But even Jim was caught off-guard when the Birthright agenda moved into Phase II last summer &mdash; in which the federal government started taking ownership stakes in publicly traded companies.
The most notable name in this regard was the rare earth producer MP Materials. Many readers of Paradigm publications collected huge gains as a consequence. (One outlier collected 1,400%. &ldquo;Best trade/investment of my four-year career,&rdquo; this individual said.)

[There are still ample profit opportunities to be had from Phase II. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2488469">Jim has a name and ticker symbol for your consideration, FREE when you watch this three-minute video</a>.]

Now comes what looks like Phase III. The Financial Times calls it &ldquo;an unprecedented effort to enlist some of Wall Street&rsquo;s biggest investors directly in U.S. national security.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;We are in a hole that we are not going to be able to dig out of without creative solutions coming in from outside parties,&rdquo; says U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll.
The &ldquo;hole&rdquo; in question is the Army&rsquo;s desire to upgrade its aging infrastructure. Cost over the next 10 years: $150 billion. Available funds from the federal budget: $15 billion.
And so last week, Driscoll along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with bigwigs from private equity giants like Apollo, Carlyle, KKR and Cerberus. From the FT story&hellip;
<blockquote>Driscoll told the Financial Times he gathered the private investors to say, &ldquo;&lsquo;Hey, here are all the assets we have in our arsenals and our depots that we are underutilizing&hellip; What are those types of deals where we can work with you and invite you in?&rsquo;&rdquo;</blockquote>
<blockquote>The Army secretary, the service&rsquo;s top civilian official, said he asked the groups to draw up &ldquo;clever financing models or unique financing models&rdquo; to help meet the Army&rsquo;s infrastructure needs&hellip;</blockquote>
<blockquote>Driscoll added the projects could include data centers and rare earth processing facilities, and could involve the federal government swapping land for computer processing power or output from rare earth processing.</blockquote>
<blockquote>He described the proposal to the group as, &ldquo;Instead of paying us with cash for the land, you pay us in compute&rdquo;.</blockquote>
Sounds complicated. But the execs on hand seem to have an open mind, even if they don&rsquo;t want to be quoted by name. &ldquo;It was pretty clear Bessent and Driscoll are serious about working with private capital,&rdquo; says one.
It doesn&rsquo;t hurt that Driscoll comes to the task with an investment banking background &mdash; and he has the cachet of being Vice President Vance&rsquo;s classmate at Yale Law.
We&rsquo;ll keep tabs on the progress of this initiative &mdash; and whether it serves up any investment opportunities in publicly traded companies &mdash; in the months ahead.

In the meantime, Birthright Phase II is still in full swing, abounding with profit possibilities. Have you seen Jim Rickards&rsquo; revised and updated video? It includes a free stock pick he believes &ldquo;has market-beating potential over the next 12 months.&rdquo;
And no, you won&rsquo;t have to watch for an hour or longer to see the pick. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2488469">Click here and you&rsquo;ll be in the know after only three minutes</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Beatings Will Continue Until&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The thrashing of the precious metals isn&rsquo;t over yet.
When it was all over yesterday, gold had registered its worst one-day loss in 12 years &mdash; a 5.7% spill. Checking our screens this morning, it&rsquo;s down another 1.1% at $4,078.
That&rsquo;s the bad news. The good news is that gold hasn&rsquo;t lost its grip on the $4,000 level.
The fact that $4,000 gold was a record high only two weeks ago illustrates the extent to which gold was &ldquo;overbought&rdquo; and due for a pullback.
&ldquo;Both gold and silver were completely overcooked, and speculators took their chance,&rdquo; colleague Sean Ring <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/the-pyrrhic-rally">writes</a> in today&rsquo;s Rude Awakening as he surveys the most likely reasons behind the big drop.
Sean says sentiment could turn on a dime as the major gold miners start reporting their earnings &mdash; with the big dog Newmont (NEM) set to report tomorrow after the closing bell.
In the meantime, the HUI index of mining stocks is down another 1.6% on the day at 581. And silver has shed another 31 cents to $48.31.
Not much to say about digital nondollar assets &mdash; Bitcoin is mired beneath $110,000 and Ethereum has sunk below $3,900.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As for stocks, the major U.S. indexes are all in the red after a &ldquo;meh&rdquo; day yesterday.
At last check the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly three-quarters of a percent to 6,689. The Dow is down about a half percent while the Nasdaq is down more than 1%.
Wall Street&rsquo;s thirst for economic data amid the &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; will be slaked on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics cobbles together the official inflation numbers for September, about 10 days behind schedule.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Long, Long Refill
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Oil prices are getting cheap enough for the Trump administration to start refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve &mdash; if only a teacup at a time.
&ldquo;The Trump administration is dipping its toe &mdash; barely &mdash; into refilling the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), announcing plans to purchase 1 million barrels of crude for delivery in December and January,&rdquo; reports Julianne Geiger at the OilPrice website. &ldquo;The move, while symbolically significant, amounts to little more than a rounding error in a reserve that once held 700 million barrels.&rdquo;
As we chronicled at the time, the Biden administration drained the SPR to an unprecedented degree throughout 2022 to keep a lid on gasoline prices ahead of that year&rsquo;s midterm elections. Several of Biden&rsquo;s predecessors tinkered with the SPR for political objectives &mdash; but never like this.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4Cw3zhpjsLT8lS0Rod09cr/b623b848f79affccf43ac48b267011f3/SPR_Chart_102225.png" alt="the biden bleed" width="540px" />
As you can see, the Biden team started sloooowwwwly refilling the SPR in mid-2023 and the Trump 47 team has continued that snail&rsquo;s pace. Even so, the SPR is no more plentiful now than it was in 1984.
But it seems the pace is about to pick up with this new buy. As Geiger reports, &ldquo;The Department of Energy will use $171 million from President Trump&rsquo;s new tax and spending law to fund the purchase, issuing a solicitation for crude to be delivered to the Bayou Choctaw site in Louisiana. Bids are due by Oct. 28, with contracts tied to spot market prices.&rdquo;
Still, Energy Secretary Chris Wright is on record saying that getting back to pre-2022 levels will take years and as much as $20 billion.
In the meantime, U.S. oil prices have rallied over a buck today after the weekly inventory numbers from the Energy Department (which are still coming out, shutdown notwithstanding.) A barrel of West Texas Intermediate fetches $58.32.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Today&rsquo;s giggle tees up our mailbag section&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3UG4Z7T8eCqksBLrURDvOY/75e6e4ec67b64546da565e1efd02a9ad/Amazon-servers.png" alt="amazon servers" width="450px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Crypto and the End of the World
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;WOW, what a way to start off the week. <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/done-deal-huge-birthright-decision">Monday&rsquo;s 5</a> was packed with all sorts of stuff and I&rsquo;ve just got to comment,&rdquo; writes one of our regulars.
&ldquo;Jim Rickards&rsquo; gold predictions just got a boost from all places silver price fixer Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan. What??? Anyway, to jump on you kids and memes, I&rsquo;m riding his Strategic Intelligence writer&rsquo;s gold/silver miner&rsquo;s recommendations to the MOON! Thanks, guys!
&ldquo;This gives me a great segue to Amazon&rsquo;s AWS web outage. You&rsquo;ve tried and tried to teach this old dog about crypto, quite eloquently by James Altucher et al., BUT I can&rsquo;t for the life of me see the value of investing in a &lsquo;computer program.&rsquo; Which as far as I can tell crypto is based on&hellip; a program? I would have literally s**t a brick if I were to wake up and find my crypto wallet, err, gone. I know this time they will get recovered but still&hellip;
&ldquo;Last comment on the reader commenting on last week&rsquo;s <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/doubling-down-on-armageddon">nuke war article</a>. Yes, I would rather be vaporized like he stated should some of these dummies finally hit the button. On the other hand, if my family and I were to survive such stupidity, at least we would have some gold and silver to barter with, rather than a crypto wallet that may never come back.
&ldquo;Just sayin&rsquo;.
&ldquo;Love the 5.&rdquo;
Dave responds: So this is interesting to think about. If power and internet are both out &mdash; which can happen in many scenarios short of nuclear war! &mdash; what good is your crypto?
I guess it&rsquo;s theoretically possible to transfer crypto from one cold wallet to another if you have 1) a backup power source and 2) a mesh network that can somehow reach an internet node from a distance, even if it doesn&rsquo;t have a lot of throughput. Admittedly that&rsquo;s a lot of ifs.
Hmmm&hellip; In that sense, an investment in crypto is ultimately an act of faith that civilization will continue functioning on one level or another!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

money-pentagon

Even Jim Rickards was caught off-guard when the American Birthright agenda moved into Phase II. Now comes what looks like Phase III.

Private Equity’s JV With the Pentagon

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Rare Earth Resolution
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Donald Trump has a handshake deal to start weaning the United States off imports of Chinese rare earths. Sort of. OK, just barely.
As you might recall, rare earths became a flashpoint in the U.S.-China trade standoff earlier this month &mdash; when Beijing imposed sweeping new export controls on rare earth elements. REEs are used in everything from your smartphone to fighter jets.
China has a near-lock on the world REE market, the result of a strategy going back more than 30 years. As China&rsquo;s late-20th century leader Deng Xiaoping put it in 1992, &ldquo;The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earths.&rdquo;
Yesterday, Australia&rsquo;s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese came calling on the White House. He and Trump announced their two governments would commit $8.5 billion to expand Australia&rsquo;s capacity to mine and process rare earths.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1YwAsDaLHYwW1cvJt2CCLj/5afc43af36243f4a863996336ee49e0c/TheWhiteHouse.png" alt="the white house tweet" width="450px" />
Australia has a substantial mining sector. It also holds at least 5% of the world&rsquo;s rare-earth deposits and accounts for about 8% of global production.
As with many of these announcements, Trump&rsquo;s boasts are big &mdash; &ldquo;We&rsquo;ll have so much critical minerals and rare earths that you won&rsquo;t know what to do with them&rdquo; &mdash; but the details are thin.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The problem is that much of Australia&rsquo;s rare earth production ends up being processed and turned into useful materials&hellip; in China.
For instance&hellip; the big Australian producer is Lynas Rare Earths &mdash; a company that&rsquo;s been on the radar of Paradigm&rsquo;s natural-resources authority Byron King for many years.
About a quarter of its output is processed in China. And most of the rest is processed in Malaysia &mdash; a country whose government is on very friendly terms with China.
Investment implications, you ask? During his appearance with Albanese, Trump swaggered about how deals like these could collapse the prices of rare earths &mdash; which would not be good for producers of rare earths.
But that&rsquo;s potentially years down the road. Paradigm readers who&rsquo;ve thrived this year from American rare-earth names like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth have little to worry about at the moment.
That said, &ldquo;While I do think the stocks could go higher in the near term, the upside is absolutely not unlimited,&rdquo; says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta. &ldquo;In five years, I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised to see many of them lower than they are today.&rdquo;

[Editor&rsquo;s note: If you&rsquo;re looking for an opportunity to leverage Trump&rsquo;s &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; agenda in your portfolio right now, Jim Rickards directs your attention to his top Alaskan mining play. &ldquo;This is a massive opportunity,&rdquo; Jim says &mdash; &ldquo;both for American mineral production and for individual investors who know exactly where to park their cash before mining begins.&rdquo;
<a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2488062">In a newly updated presentation</a>, Jim gives away the name and ticker symbol of the company for FREE. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2488062">Follow this link and get ready to take notes, because you&rsquo;ll get the critical details within just three minutes</a>.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Precious Metals Pounded
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Friday&rsquo;s precious metals beatdown was bad. Today&rsquo;s is much worse.
At midmorning, gold was down $225 to $4,130. Silver was down nearly four bucks to $48.34. The HUI index of mining stocks was down 8%, barely above the 600 level.
But this is not the end of the precious metals rally. It&rsquo;s not even the beginning of the end.
On the Paradigm Press mobile app, colleague Sean Ring shared a chart he spied on Substack, showing gold&rsquo;s performance during its magnificent 2000&ndash;2011 rally.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/LFBZagLgWenJQPjMWhNqG/ff68ea2335e7a753d9e9a5e85b37d379/Gold.jpg" alt="gold" width="540px" />
&ldquo;If you&rsquo;re feeling sick to your stomach watching the metals and miners get taken out behind the woodshed, it&rsquo;s good to review the last bull market,&rdquo; says Sean.
&ldquo;Gold got caned all the way up to a new record. This sucks, but keep your eyes on the future.&rdquo;
Word. As Jim Rickards reminded his Strategic Intelligence readers only yesterday, none of the factors propelling gold higher in recent years have changed: &ldquo;Central banks are still net buyers; gold output is still flat with no major discoveries on the horizon, and interest from new players is growing stronger by the day.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Meanwhile, the major U.S. stock indexes are treading water after booking gains yesterday.
At last check, the S&amp;P 500 was pancake-flat at 6,736. The Nasdaq is down about a quarter-percent while the Dow is up a half percent. Earnings season is in full swing, although most of the &ldquo;Magnificent 7&rdquo; names won&rsquo;t report until next week. In the meantime, Amazon is up 2.2% on the day now that the AWS outage is over.
&ldquo;On the surface, it looks as if this bull market will never take a break. When in fact, it already has,&rdquo; Greg Guenthner writes his Trading Desk readers.
&ldquo;More stocks on the NYSE are trading below their respective 50-day moving averages than not. Plus, half of the tech stocks in the S&amp;P 500 are churning below their intermediate-term averages. The tech-led rally off the April lows has cooled. It&rsquo;s simply not visible at the cap-weighted index level.
&ldquo;The averages will inevitably shed 10% at some point, maybe more, but it doesn&rsquo;t necessarily have to be anytime soon.&rdquo;
Elsewhere, crypto is losing ground compared with yesterday &mdash; Bitcoin still holding the line on $110,000 but Ethereum surrendering the $4,000 level.
Crude continues to sink toward new lows last seen in early May, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate now $57.20.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />America&rsquo;s Tax System: How Does It Compare?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Compared with most of the world&rsquo;s other major economies, the U.S. tax system is&hellip; squarely in the middle of the pack.
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation is out with its 2025 International Tax Competitiveness Index &mdash; comparing the tax burden of all 38 nations belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
&ldquo;A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government&rsquo;s priorities,&rdquo; say the researchers. &ldquo;In contrast, poorly structured tax systems can be costly, distort economic decision-making and harm domestic economies.&rdquo;
Using that yardstick, the researchers say the most competitive tax systems in the OECD are two of the Baltic republics that once belonged to the Soviet Union &mdash; Estonia with a perfect score of 100 and Latvia with a score of 92.8.
The least competitive? Italy at 50.3 and France at 45.8.
The United States scores 72.5, or 15th overall among the 38 OECD countries.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7mKLMeoRNIzj8jzwA9d3Gt/69ef78c4c215da67f548de9b2f5c0248/tax-system.png" alt="tax system" width="540px" />
When it comes to specific kinds of taxes, America ranks&hellip;
<ul>
<li>17 in individual taxes</li>
<li>4 in consumption taxes (no &ldquo;value-added tax&rdquo; for us, thank you very much)</li>
<li>9 in corporate taxes</li>
<li>30 in property taxes</li>
<li>35 in &ldquo;cross-border tax rules&rdquo; (U.S. companies are taxed on income earned abroad, and the rules are more complicated than elsewhere.)</li>
</ul>
America&rsquo;s overall No. 15 ranking is up one spot from last year. The researchers say the biggest plus is a change that turns up in the &ldquo;One Big Beautiful Bill Act&rdquo; passed over the summer: &ldquo;The U.S. reinstated full expensing for plants and equipment and extended the policy to selected industrial buildings and structures.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Today&rsquo;s installment of Shutdown Theater&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5IOw69N3GJPyO0cIrc3dHr/e825cc3dedea0c96a9af6fd6e0e606fb/congress-shutdown.png" alt="congress shutdown" width="450px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />&ldquo;The War Rages On&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Don&rsquo;t get the wrong idea from yesterday&rsquo;s mailbag: The reaction to <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/doubling-down-on-armageddon">last Wednesday&rsquo;s &ldquo;Avoidable Armageddon&rdquo; issue</a> wasn&rsquo;t 100% positive.
&ldquo;Glad that you are aware of the &lsquo;rest of the story&rsquo; concerning the Cuban Missile Crisis,&rdquo; a reader writes &mdash; teeing up the inevitable but that I&rsquo;ve come to expect after doing this daily e-letter thing for 15 years.
&ldquo;One most important point, however, differentiates the then and the now. You equate that crisis then to now between Ukraine and Russia, but don't mention the one, obvious difference.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Russia is now actually invading another sovereign country whereas there was no invasion back then. Then it was just an existential threat. Now this is a unilateral real military offensive threat in addition to the nuclear threat.&nbsp;
&ldquo;This changes the dynamic, because standing down no longer solves the problem. Taking your missiles home no longer creates a peace. The war rages on.&rdquo;
Dave responds: On the contrary, the presence of NATO missile bases on Russia&rsquo;s doorstep &mdash; Poland and Romania &mdash; was one Moscow&rsquo;s pain points in the years running up to the February 2022 invasion.
In late 2021, Vladimir Putin laid out two main demands to avert all-out war &mdash; a guarantee Ukraine would never join NATO and a guarantee Ukraine would never host NATO missile batteries that could be used to attack Russia. Joe Biden rejected the first demand and blew off the other one without even addressing it.
The war would be over very quickly without U.S. support for Ukraine. Why Donald Trump refused to wash his hands of the war upon returning to office is one of the great mysteries of the age. He blustered about his negotiating prowess and ending the war in a day. Unable to do so, he now careens back and forth between berating Ukraine&rsquo;s leader Zelenskyy one day and haranguing Putin the next.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As deadline approaches, a White House official is saying there are &ldquo;no plans&rdquo; for another Trump-Putin meeting &ldquo;in the immediate future&rdquo; &mdash; days after Trump said the two would meet in Budapest.
The scuttlebutt is that talks in recent days between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov didn&rsquo;t net the results that Trump desired &mdash; whatever they were.
How much longer before Trump reverts to threats of &ldquo;bad things happening&rdquo; if Putin doesn&rsquo;t start &ldquo;playing ball&rdquo;? Or resumes his threats to send Tomahawks to Ukraine?
On that score, the BBC had an excellent infographic the other day&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2JOyiciVOp2kxjLwEUDxzf/fdf1c8740f83bf4b52d9c3004c0de46f/Russian-military.jpg" alt="russian military" width="450px" />
One way or another, Moscow is dead-set on achieving its ultimate objective &mdash; ensuring Ukraine&rsquo;s army can never again be leveraged by Western leaders to threaten Russia.
The only question is how Moscow gets there &mdash; and how recklessly Western leaders will act in the interim.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Trump-Albanese

Donald Trump has a handshake deal to start weaning the United States off imports of Chinese rare earths. Sort of.