<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Elon&rsquo;s Warning Shot
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Sam Altman and OpenAI are scared&hellip; uh, well, I was about to use a crude term describing an empty colon, but this is a PG e-letter.
&ldquo;OpenAI is asking the U.S. government to make it easier for AI companies to learn from copyrighted material, citing a need to &lsquo;strengthen America&rsquo;s lead&rsquo; globally in advancing the technology,&rdquo; reports NBC News.
The company issued a 15-page plea to the Trump administration yesterday. The gist is that copyright law is making it inconvenient for OpenAI to continue sucking up the entire contents of the internet to train its large language models.
Thus, OpenAI says the U.S. government must clear various and sundry copyright barriers or else the People&rsquo;s Republic of China will eat OpenAI&rsquo;s lunch.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> OK, OpenAI tries to put it in more altruistic and patriotic terms than I just did: &ldquo;If the PRC&rsquo;s developers have unfettered access to data and American companies are left without fair use access, the race for AI is effectively over.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Fair use&rdquo; is the doctrine in U.S. law that allows journalists and writers to cite snippets of other people&rsquo;s work without running afoul of copyright &mdash; for example, my brief excerpt of an NBC News web article above.
The doctrine would not apply if I were to copy and paste the entire article &mdash; even if I gave NBC proper attribution.
And yet OpenAI insists on unfettered access to the entire article with no attribution &mdash; and if it doesn&rsquo;t get that access, it says China will strangle the American AI industry.
&ldquo;Applying the fair use doctrine to AI,&rdquo; says the OpenAI document, &ldquo;is not only a matter of American competitiveness &mdash; it&rsquo;s a matter of national security.&rdquo;
Oh, so China will drain us of our precious bodily fluids, too! 
OpenAI&rsquo;s plea is absurd. &ldquo;In order to compete with China, OpenAI needs to steal all our content,&rdquo; tweets Jason Calacanis &mdash; the angel investor and co-host of the All In podcast.
&ldquo;Give me a ****ing break. Just pay us a license. Your nonprofit is worth $350 billion and you&rsquo;re making $10 billion a year!&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> This latest development puts a new spin on the news about Elon Musk&rsquo;s bid for OpenAI.
As you might recall, Musk led a consortium of investors last month in offering to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI for $97.4 billion.
OpenAI and Sam Altman turned down the offer instantly. As we said at the time, the offer made no sense &mdash; OpenAI is surely worth more than what Musk and crew were offering.
But Paradigm AI authority James Altucher says it wasn&rsquo;t a serious offer as much as it was a &ldquo;warning shot.&rdquo;
Essentially, Musk gave OpenAI one friendly offer to cash out &mdash; before he disrupts the AI industry with the most powerful AI ever.
James calls this new venture &ldquo;Elon&rsquo;s Endgame&rdquo; &mdash; because once it goes online, it will pose a huge threat to OpenAI as well as Microsoft and Google. &ldquo;According to my sources,&rdquo; James tells us, &ldquo;this groundbreaking technology could finally go online on March 18.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s next Tuesday. And in a fascinating twist to the story, James believes Elon&rsquo;s Endgame could propel one small AI firm to a 50X return by next year. For sure, you&rsquo;ll want to watch James&rsquo; new video before then &mdash; <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2421703">here&rsquo;s the link</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Gold $3K
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />While the U.S. stock market has sunk 10% in three weeks&hellip; gold has surpassed $3,000 for the first time.
It didn&rsquo;t last long &mdash; checking our screens the bid is back to $2,983 &mdash; but a milestone is a milestone.
Credit where it&rsquo;s due: At the start of 2024, when gold was going for $2,064, Paradigm&rsquo;s income-and-value maven Zach Scheidt stuck his neck out and forecast $3,000 gold &mdash; a nearly 50% increase &mdash; by year-end. Zach was off by less than three months. Not bad!
If you wish to explore the whys and wherefores of how gold rose so far so fast, our recovering investment banker Sean Ring unpacked it nicely <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/a-monster-run-on-gold">in today&rsquo;s </a><a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/a-monster-run-on-gold">Rude Awakening</a>. Meanwhile, our chart hound Greg Guenthner puts the rise in dramatically visual form.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2Fnu9U0UmBzHwP1HGiovXA/f9635cc107af75a17e38e74ec7fba5a2/5Bullets_ChartTemplate_0324.png" alt="Another New All-Time High" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Perhaps most investors will consider gold a missed opportunity now that it&rsquo;s trading above $3K. I don&rsquo;t,&rdquo; says Greg.
&ldquo;History teaches us not to underestimate gold&rsquo;s upside potential. The yellow rock climbed roughly 650% during the last commodity boom. A comparable rally this time around would see the shiny rock dancing to the tune of $8K.&rdquo; His near-term target is $3,300.
Silver sits at $33.51 this morning &mdash; still about a buck below its 2024 high. &ldquo;A break above last year's high will likely send silver screaming to $40,&rdquo; says Greg.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The stock market is set to end this week the way it ended last week &mdash; up on the day, but down on a Monday&ndash;Friday basis.
All the major indexes are solidly in the green &mdash; the S&amp;P 500 up 1.75% to 5,618 after sinking into 10% &ldquo;correction&rdquo; territory at yesterday&rsquo;s close. The Dow&rsquo;s gains are a little weaker, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s a little stronger.
<blockquote>➢ For the record: There will be no &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; at midnight tonight; Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer figures Democrats lack the political capital to put up a fight at the moment.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The lone economic number of the day is a huge downside surprise: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey stunk up the joint with a reading of 57.9, in contrast with Wall Street expectations of 64.0. The number hasn&rsquo;t been this low since late 2022.
Ordinarily we don&rsquo;t mention this report because often it&rsquo;s just a reflection of whether the stock market is up or down &mdash; and of course it&rsquo;s been down lately. But a &ldquo;miss&rdquo; of this scale is worth noting.
We also give this survey the side-eye because frequently it&rsquo;s a political Rorschach test &mdash; Republicans happy when Republicans are in charge and so on. But in this instance the keepers of the survey report that across the board, Republicans, Democrats and independents &ldquo;are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The War on Cash, Border Edition
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Suddenly it&rsquo;s a lot harder to transact with cash near the U.S. border with Mexico.
As perhaps you&rsquo;re aware, federal law has long required banks to report all cash transactions over $10,000, in an effort to crack down on drug dealing, &ldquo;money laundering,&rdquo; etc.
It&rsquo;s a huge burden for many small businesses that rely on cash-paying customers &mdash; especially since small-business insurance policies typically limit coverage for theft or other loss of cash to $10,000.
Now comes word from the Treasury Department that in 30 ZIP codes along the U.S.-Mexico border, that $10,000 threshold has been lowered to&hellip; $200.
The new requirement &ldquo;underscores our deep concern with the significant risk to the U.S. financial system of the cartels, drug traffickers and other criminal actors along the Southwest border,&rdquo; says a statement from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Looking closely at the press release from FinCEN &mdash; the Treasury&rsquo;s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network &mdash; it seems the order applies primarily to &ldquo;money services businesses.&rdquo;
According to the IRS, &ldquo;An MSB is generally any person offering check cashing; foreign currency exchange services; or selling money orders, travelers' checks or pre-paid access (formerly stored value) products; for an amount greater than $1,000 per person, per day, in one or more transactions.&rdquo;
Well, let&rsquo;s hope it doesn&rsquo;t apply to banks anytime a customer just wants to take out $200 from an ATM, right?
Prediction: This requirement is starting at the border&hellip; but it won&rsquo;t stay there. Consider yourself warned.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Treehouse of (Bureaucratic) Horrors
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Because the city of Los Angeles has solved all its other problems&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4AKIfBg2vWtlaS11QFDTjP/15a052fc6832da164e6631d2493990e2/Post-Tweet.png" alt="new york post tweet" width="540px" />
An elaborate treehouse that&rsquo;s been part of the landscape in the Sherman Oaks neighborhood for 24 years is no more.
&ldquo;&lsquo;The Simpsons&rsquo; producer Rick Polizzi built the treehouse, dubbed Boney Island, in his front yard as a playhouse for his daughters,&rdquo; reports the Los Angeles Times. &ldquo;He says it&rsquo;s become a quirky local landmark loved by the neighborhood children and visited by celebrities such as Halle Berry, Christina Aguilera and Will Ferrell.&rdquo;
You know where this is all going, right?
The trouble began in 2017 when a neighbor snitched to the city, upset with the way the treehouse was decorated for Halloween and drawing spectators. Yeah, once a year.
&ldquo;For the last eight years, Polizzi has fought to keep the three-story structure standing, spending more than $50,000 on legal fees and zoning permits.&rdquo;
And to no avail. Demolition began last Saturday.
&ldquo;After all this treehouse stuff, I&rsquo;m just totally burned out on the city, and politics,&rdquo; Polizzi tells the New York Post. &ldquo;I&rsquo;m just getting tired of the rat race here. The rats are winning, so I want to get out.&rdquo; He&rsquo;s looking to sell and move back to his native New Orleans.
He hopes the victims of the LA wildfires looking to rebuild have better luck with the bureaucracy than he did: &ldquo;If the fire victims have to go through one-tenth of what we dealt with, they&rsquo;re going to be in a world of trouble, so I hope the city can get it together, because fire victims have been through enough.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: DOGE and DST
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;A one-month federal expenditure metric is hardly a valid scoring sheet for the effectiveness of DOGE,&rdquo; a reader writes after yesterday&rsquo;s edition. &ldquo;Eventually it might be.
&ldquo;Most of what DOGE has really done so far is initiate some layoffs, which don't take effect for three&ndash;seven months and may include bonuses, or identify fraud, waste and abuse contracts. Many of the identified contracts have already been executed with payments and obligations that are difficult to stop overnight. The next or follow-on contract can certainly be killed off, but federal contracts are subject to many enforceable regulations including the FAR, or federal acquisition regulation.
&ldquo;Assigning a &lsquo;grade&rsquo; to DOGE's effectiveness yet is like blaming Trump for current inflation or grocery prices. We all know that economic changes including Fed actions take months or years to fully show themselves in the economy. Yes, there are some short-term indicators, but the final grade will be months in developing.
&ldquo;There may well be some short-term pain for long-term gain. The problem for Trump is that if his policies do include a recession, or close to it, he better hope that the improvements are evident before the midterm elections in 2026.
&ldquo;Still love the 5 Bullets!&rdquo;
Dave responds: I didn&rsquo;t assign a grade; I just said DOGE&rsquo;s impact hasn&rsquo;t shown up yet in the monthly Treasury statement. If and when that impact shows up, I&rsquo;ll chronicle it here.
Now riddle me this: With Congress set to pass another &ldquo;continuing resolution&rdquo; instead of an honest-to-God budget&hellip; the U.S. Agency for International Development will get its full Biden-era appropriation even though the Trump administration is shutting down the joint. What will happen to that money?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I&rsquo;ve lived in Asia for the last 25 years where we don&rsquo;t have that daylight saving time crap. People just get on with their lives,&rdquo; writes our final correspondent.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s as simple as: Summer has longer days, shorter nights. Winter longer nights, shorter days.
&ldquo;None of this panicking about losing an hour in March, running late for work and the opposite in October.
&ldquo;Keep up the wonderful work you do. I enjoy my dose of Dave Gonigam&rsquo;s sense of humor and cynicism each day.&rdquo;
Dave: I&rsquo;m glad someone does.
Have a good weekend,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

shutterstock 2306049297

Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

OpenAI says copyright law is wrecking its business model. But that’s the least of its worries...

Elon’s Warning Shot

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Is Elon Distracted?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> An interesting narrative has taken hold in the media in recent days&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2RKoNnVLDhQ2ZwLg4s0TC8/53c9e5fd7206aa8600d34f152402d6d9/Benzinga2.png" alt="benzinga" width="540px" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7Fn2XqLRUv1cRd3uUCYoM5/2af820746096d5d9969d043338b3c9ad/NYT2.png" alt="nyt" width="540px" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3HnzelIaJ02UVbY4jsRi8F/f69536abd0a88d15e69c8738b29da960/SeekingAlpha.png" alt="seeking alpha" width="540px" />
The New York Times is representative of the vibe: &ldquo;Elon Musk is facing questions about how much attention he is paying to his businesses as he advises President Trump on the direction of the federal government.&rdquo;
Most of the focus is on publicly traded Tesla &mdash; down an eye-watering 48% from its all-time highs in December. Monday brought a one-day drop of 15% &ldquo;amid concerns that include declining electric vehicle sales and politically driven protests against the manufacturer,&rdquo; says the NYT.
(More about the latter of those two issues tomorrow&hellip;)
To be sure, Musk has a lot of irons in the fire &mdash; Tesla, X, xAI, SpaceX, Boring, Neuralink&hellip;
But that&rsquo;s always been the case. Are the DOGE efforts that he added to his plate after Election Day that much more of a &ldquo;distraction&rdquo;?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> To whatever extent Musk is &ldquo;distracted&rdquo; these days, it&rsquo;s not by DOGE. It&rsquo;s by something else altogether.
If you belong to the Paradigm Mastermind Group, you already know what we&rsquo;re talking about. Our AI authority James Altucher calls it &ldquo;Elon&rsquo;s endgame.&rdquo;
&ldquo;I believe that right now, Elon Musk is quietly executing the final phase of a master plan that no one&rsquo;s talking about&hellip; and I&rsquo;m confident this will be the venture that crowns Elon as the world&rsquo;s first trillionaire.&rdquo;
According to James&rsquo; sources, this groundbreaking AI technology &mdash; up to 9,000% more powerful than current AI systems &mdash; could finally go online on Tuesday March 18. That&rsquo;s only five days from now.
The undertaking is so big, Musk is going in on it with none other than AI chip leader Nvidia. And James figures on Tuesday, the world will learn about a third player in the venture &mdash; a $1 billion AI company that he believes could surge 50X by next year.

James just uploaded a video laying out the opportunity at hand. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2420996">Click here to learn about &ldquo;Elon&rsquo;s Endgame&rdquo; before it becomes headline news next week</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />DOGE and the D.C. Budget Follies
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Speaking of DOGE, it hasn&rsquo;t accomplished squat yet &mdash; not if the U.S. Treasury&rsquo;s own figures are any indication.
Around the middle of every month, the Treasury issues a monthly statement of its income and outflows for the previous calendar month.
We ignored the February report because Donald Trump was president for only one-third of January. So the March report, issued yesterday afternoon, would be our first indication of how much government excess the DOGE boys are hacking away at.
Answer: Not much.
Here are the numbers and the comparisons with February of last year&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7r8k6d8SYKnwAJsxsApBl0/82f6022183d2f782b9787d9487b218cb/5Bullets_DogeDisappointment_031325.png" alt="doge disappointment" width="540px" />
In fact, Uncle Sam registered the highest February spending ever &mdash; even exceeding Joe Biden&rsquo;s first full month in office, February 2021. And Biden had the pandemic as an excuse.
But don&rsquo;t take it from us, take it from the conservative Manhattan Institute. &ldquo;DOGE savings are so small as not to be identifiable in monthly spending totals,&rdquo; the think tank&rsquo;s Jessica Riedl tells the Financial Times.
The Trump administration&rsquo;s defenders would tell you &mdash; and they have a point &mdash; that spending is authorized by Congress. As the narrative goes, progress will come over time as the White House works together with a Republican-controlled House and Senate.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But that narrative doesn&rsquo;t account for the spend-a-palooza the Republican-controlled House passed this week.
Fiscal year 2025 started nearly six months ago, but Congress still hasn&rsquo;t passed a budget. All it&rsquo;s passed is a series of kick-the-can &ldquo;continuing resolutions&rdquo; &mdash; rubber-stamping previous spending levels, with a few adjustments here and there, for a few weeks or months at a time.
On Monday, the House passed another &ldquo;CR,&rdquo; this one buying time until the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30.
&ldquo;DOGE is fake if Congress continues to appropriate money at the same levels as before DOGE. It's smoke and mirrors,&rdquo; tweets Daniel McAdams, who was one of Rep. Ron Paul&rsquo;s senior aides until Paul&rsquo;s retirement in 2013.
This latest CR passed with only one dissenting Republican vote. House Speaker Mike Johnson is exercising an iron discipline over his caucus that Nancy Pelosi undoubtedly recognizes and respects.
The lone dissenter, the cantankerous Kentuckian Thomas Massie &mdash; the closest thing to Ron Paul in Congress today &mdash; called BS on the whole charade: &ldquo;Congress just locked in a large portion of the Biden agenda for the first nine months of Trump&rsquo;s presidency.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5cs9DuwawIn8sy8IVgaijW/a22a5cd2d2021c16e3bbfa21cd881c1c/ThomasTweet.png" alt="thomas tweet" width="540px" />
The measure still needs to pass the Senate, with at least a handful of Democratic votes, to avert a &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; Friday night. It appears those Democratic votes aren&rsquo;t forthcoming, at least not without some concessions from the Republicans.
Just guessing here, but those concessions probably won&rsquo;t involve spending cuts.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Amid this circus, Donald Trump has chosen to go on a jihad against&hellip; Thomas Massie.
&ldquo;HE SHOULD BE PRIMARIED, and I will lead the charge against him,&rdquo; Trump bellowed on Monday.
This isn&rsquo;t the first time. Trump went after Massie in 2020 for throwing up a roadblock to passage of CARES Act, the first of the gazillion-dollar COVID spending bills. Indeed every two years, special interests line up primary candidates against Massie &mdash; and every time Massie knocks them down like bowling pins.
This time, however, Trump risks alienating a critical mass of his 2024 voters, says Natali Morris &mdash; co-host of the Redacted podcast.
&ldquo;Let it be known,&rdquo; she tweets, &ldquo;that @RepThomasMassie is Peanut the Squirrel to the independents who brought the Republicans the White House and the majority. Do not bring this fight to us. No one will benefit from this.&rdquo;
At least the fight is good for some quality memes&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1MM2ZMoFgAdIHvy1AbQyj0/39ceb582dea1a7f8650be4486576e867/ResistMainstream.png" alt="resist mainstream" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Worst Is Over?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />At least by one metric, the worst should be over for the stock market this year.
Figures from Carson Investment Research show that going back to 2005, the average date the stock market puts in a bottom for the year is March 12 &mdash; which in 2025 was yesterday.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3JaC6UKxJzpvmgGUS2VxM9/9261fb5f9b63931b864cc18ea9e29881/RyanTweet2.png" alt="ryan tweet" width="540px" />
That&rsquo;s interesting when you consider the data set includes 2008 (global financial crisis) and 2020 (COVID crash).
That said, those years weren&rsquo;t the only outliers. Only three years ago in 2022 the market bottomed in mid-October. By year-end the S&amp;P had taken a 12-month tumble of nearly 20% and many tech stocks fell even harder.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> For the moment, the S&amp;P 500 is on track to end today at a year-to-date low. At last check, it&rsquo;s down a half percent to 5,566.
The Dow&rsquo;s losses are narrower, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s deeper. The Nasdaq sits at six-month lows.
Yesterday&rsquo;s gains appear to be a one-off and not the start of something: &ldquo;I did not see evidence of enthusiastic buyers stepping in on Wednesday,&rdquo; says Paradigm chart hound Greg Guenthner. &ldquo;Until the market proves us otherwise, I still consider this to be a relief rally, and nothing more.&rdquo;
Among the big movers today, Intel is up 15% &mdash; not on an Apple takeover as James Altucher <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/deal-of-the-decade">mused</a> here on Monday, but on the appointment of a new CEO. He&rsquo;s Lip-Bu Tan, who engineered a turnaround at another chipmaker, Cadence Design Systems. Tan also served on Intel&rsquo;s board from 2022&ndash;2024.
The tariff threat of the day features the president proposing 200% duties on booze imports from the European Union &mdash; a level so steep that no importer would even bother bringing in such products, says one observer. &ldquo;A company is not going to ship it on a 200% tariff,&rdquo; Needham &amp; Co. analyst Gerald Pascarelli tells Yahoo Finance.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />For no obvious reason, precious metals are rallying strong &mdash; gold up $33, approaching record territory at $2,967 and silver at $33.46.
The rally began as soon as the Labor Department released the wholesale inflation numbers for February, which came in cooler than expected &mdash; flat month-over-month and up 3.2% year-over-year. Perhaps the thinking is that numbers like these will clear the way for the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle sooner rather than later.
Crude is giving up some of yesterday&rsquo;s gains, down nearly 1% and barely holding onto the $67 level.
Bitcoin continues bumping around in the low-$80Ks.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" /> Slashing the Rainforest to Stop Climate Change
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Took long enough, but climate change has jumped the shark&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1vOgnCLBkwysrpSYlhypSi/c8b69aecea8dab13ca3346e2b2dd36af/VictoriaTweet.png" alt="victoria tweet" width="540px" />
Yep, this year&rsquo;s United Nations climate summit will take place in Belem, Brazil &mdash; a location so far-flung that it requires slashing through Amazon rainforest to build a road sufficient to accommodate the 50,000 attendees.
&ldquo;Along the partially built road, lush rainforest towers on either side,&rdquo; reports the BBC &mdash; &ldquo;a reminder of what was once there. Logs are piled high in the cleared land which stretches more than eight miles through the rainforest into Belem.&rdquo;
The state government of Para is trying to sell the project as a &ldquo;sustainable highway&rdquo;... but the locals aren&rsquo;t buying it.
"Our harvest has already been cut down. We no longer have that income to support our family,&rdquo; says Claudio Verequete &mdash; who used to harvest aca&iacute; berries on territory now occupied by the highway. He&rsquo;s drawing down his savings to get by, seeing as he&rsquo;s gotten zip for compensation from the government.
Right, but there will be bike lanes! And solar lighting! It&rsquo;s green, dontcha see?
I mean, there&rsquo;s nothing we can add. The lunacy/hypocrisy speaks for itself, and so we move on&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Daylight Time
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Your editor&rsquo;s latest rant against daylight saving time <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/deal-of-the-decade">in Monday&rsquo;s edition</a> brought pushback from a reader who writes in now and then&hellip;
&ldquo;Please explain to me how the sunrise at 4:30 a.m. allows me to get more sleep than a 5:30 a.m. sunrise &mdash; since you seem to agree the sunrise is the natural way to wake up, works really well for the chimps in the jungle.
&ldquo;The standard time lovers talk like we still live in caves. We now have a thing called artificial light. Farmers have many of them, including me. What is good for the people in San Diego is not good for the people in Seattle. It is not one size fits all.
&ldquo;DST will stay for at least eight months out of the year, if not more. This battle ended decades ago. DST won.
&ldquo;And one more thing: Obesity is the No. 1 reason for heart disease and strokes, not waking up in a different time zone. I expect better research.&rdquo;
Dave: Please explain to me how it makes any rational sense that the artificial light I did not need at 7:00 a.m. last week I suddenly need again at 7:00 a.m. this week.
Humans are adaptable, but they&rsquo;re not that adaptable. In addition to the car crashes, heart attacks and workplace injuries that spike the week after time change, the stress of the adjustment ravages your immune system. I managed to avoid an oncoming cold this week only by firebombing my innards with liposomal vitamin C.
For visual evidence that year-round standard time is the superior solution, cartographer Andy Woodruff compiled this infographic a few years ago. (Click to enlarge.) In short, year-round standard time gives the most people the most opportunitiesfor a sensible sunrise time before 7:00 a.m.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4VX5WTJ6j81WxM35zCOuB7/6db3f942a700594e423ddd3942f1b217/DaylightSavings2.png" alt="daylight savings" width="540px" />
In any event, the president is going back on his pledge for the GOP to &ldquo;use its best efforts to eliminate daylight saving time.&rdquo; More&rsquo;s the pity&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

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To whatever extent Musk is “distracted” these days, it’s not by DOGE. It’s by something else altogether.

Is Elon Distracted? 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Crypto: &ldquo;Don&rsquo;t Fight City Hall&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Against the electrifying backdrop of SXSW in Austin, Texas, Paradigm&rsquo;s iconoclast investor James Altucher hosted a spirited event to discuss the pivotal tech investments poised to define 2025.
For three immersive hours, James and his team of expert analysts tackled a barrage of questions from an engaged audience &mdash; spanning the spectrum from crypto&rsquo;s choppy trajectory to biotech&rsquo;s transformative potential and the ever-evolving dynamics of global trade.
In case you missed our FREE Tech Turning Point 2025 event yesterday, today&rsquo;s recap provides an exclusive sneak peek.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2UnlV3OBuIKpmUqZ8r3cp9/8575f51c49142a8d470c694bdce3ac53/SXSW.png" alt="SXSW" width="450px" />
But for the full scope of insights and strategies &mdash; plus specific tickers &mdash; viewers are strongly encouraged to watch the replay. (More on that in a moment.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Amidst prevailing market jitters, James underscores a crucial statistic: Bitcoin is up 80% from its 52-week low.
&ldquo;Crypto feels like it's crashing,&rdquo; he acknowledges, &ldquo;but Bitcoin is 80% off the lows.&rdquo; His core message is clear: Resist panic and maintain a long-term perspective.
Pointing to the U.S. government&rsquo;s evolving stance on cryptocurrency, James emphasizes the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
The potential implications of government accumulation, he argues, could be transformative, driving Bitcoin&rsquo;s value to unprecedented heights. (Bitcoin $1 million?)
Referencing the time-honored market adage &ldquo;Don't fight City Hall,&rdquo; James posits that aligning with governmental interests can be a strategic advantage in the crypto sphere.
Further bolstering this optimistic outlook, he notes the recent regulatory shift allowing banks to take custody of Bitcoin, a move that signals growing institutional acceptance and maturity within the crypto market.
&ldquo;This is a huge bullish sign for crypto,&rdquo; James adds.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As for overall market jitters, James offers an historical perspective, reminding that market downturns are often followed by periods of robust growth and opportunity.
Citing examples including the 1987 stock market crash, the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the 2008 financial crisis, he emphasizes that periods of fear and uncertainty often present attractive buying opportunities for astute investors.
&ldquo;The 10 biggest days in market history happened during bear markets,&rdquo; James notes, encouraging investors to view the current uncertainty as a chance to acquire assets at discounted prices.
He emphasizes that now is the time to look for opportunity, not to drop out of the market.
James references famed 20th-century investor Bernard Baruch who famously quipped: &ldquo;I bought too early and sold too soon.&rdquo; Thus, James encourages investors to resist the temptation to time the market and to embrace a long-term investment horizon.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Trump&rsquo;s Tariff Tango
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />James also challenges conventional economic wisdom, arguing that tariffs are not inherently inflationary. 
Instead, he presents them as strategic instruments designed to fortify supply chains and facilitate geopolitical negotiations.
Citing the example of tariffs imposed on Chinese chips, which spurred Taiwan Semiconductor&rsquo;s substantial investment in U.S.-based manufacturing facilities, he illustrates how tariffs can incentivize domestic production and enhance economic resilience.
&ldquo;Tariffs by themselves do not cause inflation,&rdquo; James asserts. &ldquo;These things are not to generate revenue but are strategic negotiating points.&rdquo;
Drawing a distinction between the current tariff landscape and the protectionist measures of the 1930s &mdash; such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act &mdash; James emphasizes the targeted and strategic nature of contemporary tariffs.
Unlike the broad-based tariffs of the Smoot-Hawley era, which exacerbated the Great Depression, James argues these tariffs are focused on specific industries and are designed to address specific geopolitical concerns.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Two Controversial Catalysts?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Paradigm&rsquo;s team of experts delve into Elon Musk&rsquo;s ambitious construction of the AI supercomputer &ldquo;Colossus&rdquo; in Memphis, Tennessee. 
Equipped initially with 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips &mdash; now doubled to 200,000, with plans to scale to 1 million &mdash; this supercomputer is poised to unlock unprecedented AI capabilities, potentially revolutionizing industries and reshaping the technological landscape.
This initiative aligns with DOGE&rsquo;s efforts to modernize the federal government, with Musk leveraging his technological prowess to enhance efficiency and drive innovation within the public sector.
&ldquo;He understands how to create new technologies, faster, cheaper and more efficiently,&rdquo; James points out, emphasizing Musk&rsquo;s unique ability to drive innovation within traditionally bureaucratic systems.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The panel discussion pivoted to examining the influence of RFK Jr. on the biotech industry.
While acknowledging Kennedy&rsquo;s controversial public image, the panelists observe that his focus on health advocacy has spurred innovation and investment in the biotech sector.
James chimes in: Regardless of what you think of the new secretary of Health and Human Services, more people are getting interested in and, therefore, investing in the biotech space.
&ldquo;RFK Jr. is creating new interest in the biotech industry,&rdquo; Paradigm&rsquo;s science-and-tech expert Ray Blanco remarks, highlighting the potential for Kennedy&rsquo;s advocacy to drive further advancements in medical research and health care solutions.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Unlocking the Full Replay
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />This recap provides a tantalizing glimpse into the wealth of knowledge shared at the Paradigm&rsquo;s Tech Turning Point 2025. But&hellip; 
To gain access to the specific tickers James and his team are monitoring&hellip; the comprehensive analysis underpinning their predictions&hellip; and the full scope of their 2025 outlook, we strongly encourage you to watch the replay.
Which includes&hellip;
<ul>
<li>James' Top Quantum Play: Uncover the quantum investment that James believes will deliver exponential returns</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Premier Cryptocurrencies for Growth: Identify the digital assets best positioned for substantial gains</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Capitalizing on Political Shifts: Learn how to leverage changing political dynamics to unlock lucrative investment opportunities</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Uncover Five Long-Term Plays: Access five promising tickers handpicked by the Paradigm team for enduring wealth creation.</li>
</ul>
By viewing the replay, gain a decisive edge in today&rsquo;s rapidly evolving markets and position your portfolio for success in the face of technological disruptions and economic transformations.
James and his team of expert analysts want to help set you up for life&hellip;

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1hVb6MxLYtJ0R4pK2SJ5W1/18b248e2cc5c0cdb031068c93d33bb64/SXSW2.png" alt="SXSW cheers" width="450px" />

Cheers! It wouldn&rsquo;t be a Paradigm event without the &ldquo;Whiskey Bar&rdquo; Find out what everyone&rsquo;s drinking&hellip;
Don&rsquo;t miss this chance to tap into the collective wisdom of Paradigm&rsquo;s team of experts. <a href="https://paradigmpressgroup.com/techturningpoint2025">Watch the replay now</a> and chart your course forward. <a href="https://paradigmpressgroup.com/techturningpoint2025">Join James and the rest of his Paradigm team!</a>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Inflation Check as Stocks Stabilize
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Before we go, we&rsquo;ll take Mr. Market&rsquo;s pulse &mdash; starting with the February inflation numbers.
For once, the numbers came in cooler than expected &mdash; up 0.2% month-over-month, which translates to an official year-over-year inflation rate of 2.8%. Helping matters is a slight drop in energy prices compared with a year earlier.
But really, these numbers are nothing to celebrate: A 2.8% inflation rate in February is still higher than 2.4% last September.
Nor will the numbers alter the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s thinking at its next meeting a week from today: The Fed will stand pat as it did in late January, leaving the benchmark fed funds rate at 4.5%.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Whether it&rsquo;s the inflation numbers or just sheer exhaustion from the past few days&rsquo; selling, the major U.S. stock averages are stabilizing for the moment.
The S&amp;P 500 is up a quarter percent on the day at 5,587. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up nearly 1% while the Dow is down a half percent.
The Dow continues to struggle in the face of ever-changing tariff headlines: Washington will not double its tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum after all, and the Canadian province of Ontario is dropping its new surtax on electricity sent across the U.S. border.
But an across-the-board tariff on all imported steel and aluminum is now in effect and the European Union says it&rsquo;s drawing up a &ldquo;strong but proportionate&rdquo; response while Canada is announcing its own tit-for-tat tariffs on U.S. goods.
Precious metals are holding steady &mdash; gold at $2,918 and silver a nickel shy of $33. Crude continues to rebound from last week&rsquo;s lows, up nearly 2% at $67.51. Bitcoin sits at $81,600.
We&rsquo;ll be back tomorrow, reader, with your daily round of 5 Bullets. Until then, take care!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

shutterstock 494317324

Against the electrifying backdrop of SXSW, James Altucher hosted a spirited event to discuss the pivotal tech investments poised to define 2025.

Altucher Uncensored

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Elon Throws Nvidia a Lifeline
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has the tough task of topping himself tomorrow.
Amid the euphoria for all things AI the last couple of years, Nvidia&rsquo;s annual software developer conference has become the forum for Huang to do his best imitation of the late Steve Jobs.
Much as Jobs made the crowd ooh and aah over the latest iPhone release, Huang brought down the house last year with the release of Nvidia&rsquo;s state-of-the-art Blackwell chip.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3N4WEwgVksousrC627l5jk/5eecc44a558bbb1aeff839306b2ff615/PranjalTweet2.png" alt="Pranjal tweet" width="540px" />
Paradigm&rsquo;s AI authority James Altucher did a masterly job of preparing readers for this moment &mdash; anticipating the release of this chip days before Huang&rsquo;s announcement.
It was great news for Nvidia &mdash; and even better news for a handful of related AI players that James recommended. In the space of only three months, three of his best-performing AI trades could have delivered peak returns of 1,650%... 2,178%... and even 2,633%.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> By last summer, Huang was quite literally getting the rock-star treatment from adoring fans&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1egNkzyPTWJM8JMwUg5hI6/815736e5a97fd895e9746c9d4201009a/NaveenTweet.png" alt="Naveen tweet" width="540px" />
Your editor listened to a recent podcast interview in which a financial analyst said that moment marked the top for Nvidia&rsquo;s share price.
Well, not quite. NVDA traded for $122 that day last June. It reached a top of nearly $150 shortly after New Year&rsquo;s Day.
What is true is that NVDA trades this week for the same $122 that it did at the time of the autograph signing seen &lsquo;round the world.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Thus, the vibe coming into this year&rsquo;s NVDA event tomorrow is much more muted.
&ldquo;Nvidia&rsquo;s Next Act Needs to Be Even Bigger,&rdquo; says a Wall Street Journal headline.
Reuters says Huang will have to &ldquo;defend his nearly $3 trillion chip company&rsquo;s dominance as pressure mounts on its biggest customers to rein in the costs of artificial intelligence.&rdquo;
That pressure is only growing based on the news from Asia this morning. As the South China Morning Post reports, &ldquo;A new artificial intelligence (AI) framework developed by teams associated with China&rsquo;s Tsinghua University is said to be able to reduce reliance on Nvidia chips for AI model inference, marking the latest effort by the country to enhance technological self-sufficiency.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As it happens, our James Altucher says tomorrow Huang is getting a lifeline&hellip; from none other than Elon Musk.
James calls it &ldquo;Elon&rsquo;s Endgame&rdquo; &mdash; in which Musk and Huang are going in together on an AI venture that will redefine the space for years to come.
<ul>
<li>It could be up to 9,000% more powerful than current AI systems</li>
<li>It could disrupt industries from health care to energy to defense</li>
<li>And it will put extremely powerful AI capabilities in the hands of everyday Americans.</li>
</ul>
Yes, it could be an enormously lucrative proposition for well-positioned investors. Not because of a bump to NVDA&rsquo;s share price necessarily&hellip; but because James believes that during Huang&rsquo;s event tomorrow the world will learn about a third player in this venture.
It&rsquo;s a $1 billion AI company &mdash; at least right now. But based on the information from his sources, James says &ldquo;Elon&rsquo;s Endgame&rdquo; has the potential to grow the share price 50X by next year.
Members of the Paradigm Mastermind Group are already in the know about this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. If you&rsquo;re not among them, there&rsquo;s still time before Huang&rsquo;s address tomorrow to get up to speed. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2421975">Click here to watch James describe &ldquo;Elon&rsquo;s Endgame.&rdquo;</a>

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Here We Go Again
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The oil price has jumped to its highest in nearly two weeks now that Donald Trump has restarted Joe Biden&rsquo;s war against the Houthi faction in Yemen.
While the markets were closed for the weekend &mdash; in recent years that&rsquo;s how it almost always goes with major U.S. military action &mdash; Washington launched airstrikes on Yemen.
On the surface, none of this makes any sense. Yes, the Houthis were harassing U.S.- and Israeli-linked shipping last year &mdash; an act of solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza.
But the Houthis called off those attacks once Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire in January &mdash; you know, the ceasefire that Trump&rsquo;s own people negotiated shortly before he took office.
A few days ago, the Houthis said they would resume attacks on Israeli ships because Israel was violating the ceasefire with a blockade of humanitarian aid to Gaza. And that, apparently, is the pretext for Washington to start bombing Yemen again.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4eN7HZvSSIeC2najfyFvgX/d061dbcffb1c1cbf65f77f8234e87126/RyanTweet3.png" alt="ryan tweet" width="540px" />
&ldquo;The Houthi attack on American vessels will not be tolerated,&rdquo; Trump bellowed on social media. &ldquo;We will use overwhelming lethal force until we have achieved our objective.&rdquo;
But there was no &ldquo;attack on American vessels&rdquo; once the ceasefire took effect. And what&rsquo;s the &ldquo;objective&rdquo; of U.S. airstrikes, anyway?
There isn&rsquo;t even that much American shipping through the Red Sea that&rsquo;s being disrupted. It&rsquo;s mostly shipping between Europe and Asia that has to take the long trip around Africa.
Anyway, we&rsquo;re back where we were last year &mdash; U.S. forces firing missiles costing $2 million a pop while the Houthis are targeting U.S. warships with drones costing $2,000. That disparity has not changed with the transition from Biden to Trump.
&ldquo;Why did we have to do this?&rdquo; tweets Ann Coulter, channeling skeptics on the right. &ldquo;Is it part of our constitution that we must be bombing someone at all times?&rdquo;
Already Washington is looking to escalate &mdash; national security adviser Mike Waltz saying the next targets will be Iranian ships funneling intelligence to the Houthis.
Given the tight relationship between Iran and Russia, how&rsquo;s that going to work? It&rsquo;ll be interesting to see the readout of the phone call that Trump and Vladimir Putin are having this week that&rsquo;s supposed to be all about Ukraine.
In any event, crude is back above $68. Not a huge reaction for now &mdash; but there&rsquo;s nothing like a U.S. and/or Israeli attack on Iran to disrupt the global oil trade&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Fed&rsquo;s Dilemma
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The U.S. stock market is off to a lackluster start for the week as the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s next move comes into view.
The Fed issues one of its regular proclamations about short-term interest rates on Wednesday. Every indication is that the rate-cutting cycle that began last September and was paused in January will remain on pause. That would leave the benchmark fed funds rate at 4.5%.
&ldquo;The Fed is between a rock and a hard place,&rdquo; says Paradigm macroeconomics authority Jim Rickards. &ldquo;Right now, the Fed is more concerned about inflation. By May, they will be more concerned about jobs. They cannot cut rates to fight unemployment and raise rates to fight inflation at the same time. That&rsquo;s why they&rsquo;re basically throwing up their hands and doing nothing.&rdquo;
Amid that backdrop, the S&amp;P 500 is up a quarter percent to 5,651. Gold is on the cusp of $3,000 again, but silver is losing ground at $33.62.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The day&rsquo;s major economic number is an eye-of-the-beholder thing.
Retail sales inched up 0.2% from January to February &mdash; way less than the 0.7% jump Wall Street economists were counting on.
But the headline number is frequently skewed by auto sales (which are volatile month-to-month) and by gasoline sales (falling gas prices can drag the number down).
If you factor those out you get a 0.5% jump, right in line with Wall Street&rsquo;s expectations.
All that said, retail sales are up 3.1% year-over-year. This number is not adjusted for inflation. Considering that the official inflation rate is running 2.8%, an objective observer is hard-pressed to say the mighty American consumer is in great shape and spending freely.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />&ldquo;Not Dead Yet&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Yes, Bitcoin is down. Yes, altcoins are bleeding,&rdquo; acknowledges Paradigm&rsquo;s senior crypto analyst Chris Campbell.
Bitcoin sits a little over $83,000 this morning &mdash; better than a few days ago but still sucking wind by late 2024-early 2025 standards.
&ldquo;Every time this happens,&rdquo; says Chris, &ldquo;we have two groups of people:
<ol>
<li>&ldquo;The ones who panic, sell at the bottom, swear off crypto forever and then buy back in at the next all-time high like clockwork.</li>
<li>&ldquo;The ones who rub their hands together, mutter &lsquo;thank you&rsquo; and quietly accumulate at fire-sale prices.&rdquo;</li>
</ol>
Yes, Chris is in the latter group.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The fundamentals of crypto have never been stronger,&rdquo; he says.
Begin with the action in Washington, D.C. &ldquo;While everyone stares at red charts, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency just reversed its stance on banks interacting with crypto. (That&rsquo;s like the Vatican not only admitting Galileo was right but also announcing a space program to colonize Mars.)
&ldquo;Meanwhile, the SEC just quietly dropped lawsuits against Coinbase, Kraken and Uniswap.
&ldquo;The Senate just shot down the IRS&rsquo; attempt to force DeFi protocols to collect Social Security numbers. Imagine trying to make a vending machine check your ID before dispensing a Snickers bar.
&ldquo;A year ago, crypto looked like it was gearing up for an extinction-level event. Now? It&rsquo;s eerily quiet.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And yet, &ldquo;Right now, people are buying put options (bets that the market will keep crashing) at record highs,&rdquo; says Chris.
&ldquo;You know when put options were also at record highs?
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;August 2015. Bitcoin went up 87X</li>
<li>&ldquo;March 2020. Bitcoin went up 10X</li>
<li>&ldquo;November 2022. Bitcoin went up &rdquo;</li>
</ul>
Yes, there could be a further drop from current levels. But Chris urges you to consider this: &ldquo;In any given year, Bitcoin&rsquo;s biggest gains come from just 10 days. Miss those and you miss the majority of the upside.
&ldquo;Every time crypto crashes, people say it&rsquo;s dead. Every time, it comes roaring back.
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;2013 crash? Dead</li>
<li>&ldquo;2017 crash? Dead</li>
<li>&ldquo;2020 crash? Dead</li>
<li>&ldquo;2022 crash? Dead.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;And yet here we are. Bitcoin is still here. The altcoin market is still here. And the ones who ignored the fear and kept buying are the ones who ended up with life-changing gains.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Precious Metals, DST
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Hey Dave, about a week ago you had mentioned looking for silver as well as the miners moving up to confirm the increase of the price of gold,&rdquo; a reader writes.
&ldquo;I want to ask if/when we do get that confirmation, what do you expect the moves in gold to look like? Hundreds of dollars of gains? $1,000? Should we expect the charts to mimic a crypto memecoin's percent gains? Just what sort of future is in the realm of plausibilities?&rdquo;
Dave responds: Price targets are always dicey things.
But one of the experts we follow outside Paradigm is a fellow named Don Durrett, who&rsquo;s been investing in mining stocks for 35 years. He says if we can get to $35 silver and 350 on the HUI index of mining stocks &mdash; and stay there &mdash; that&rsquo;s likely the signal that a breakout is underway.
Note that I said &ldquo;and stay there.&rdquo; The HUI touched 350 for a nanosecond last October. That doesn&rsquo;t count. Checking our screens, we see the HUI above 348. Another test might be coming this week&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />A week past time change, readers still wish to weigh in on daylight saving time&hellip;
Responding to a comment in Friday&rsquo;s mailbag, a reader writes, &ldquo;Obviously, the person has no issue reading. Issue appears to be comprehending. (Probably, sleep deprived &mdash; like the rest of us).
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/deal-of-the-decade#3">&ldquo;Your piece</a> did a great job of outlining the madness of DST yet why it keeps &lsquo;winning.&rsquo; Keeps winning because money wins out nearly every time.&rdquo;
One more comment: &ldquo;Dave, on the off chance (9%) that someone is interested in novel thoughts: DST (summertime) makes no sense near the equator because the length of days does not vary much. Nor at high latitudes (Edmonton, Edinburgh) because the days are so short in winter and so long in summer that shifting cannot do much.
&ldquo;It is only at mid-latitudes the temptation arises, mostly to deprive clock-people of morning light and give them more in evenings. These latitudes are also infested with bossy-boots.&rdquo;
Dave: Yeah, time change is mostly a North American and European thing. You don&rsquo;t see it much in Asia &mdash; although China&rsquo;s single time zone across the entire country seems bonkers in its own way!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

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Our James Altucher says Huang is getting a lifeline tomorrow… from none other than Elon Musk.

Elon Throws Nvidia a Lifeline

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Today marks the fifth anniversary of what your editor calls “COVID 9/11.”

COVID 9/11

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Deal of the Decade
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Imagine McDonald&rsquo;s ditching the griddle and adopting flame-broiling for its burgers &mdash; even bringing in experts from Burger King to help with the transition.
Paradigm AI authority James Altucher says that&rsquo;s the best way to think of a rumor that hit the tech space last month.
As the story went, Intel was entertaining a partnership with archrival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. TSMC would send its engineers to Intel&rsquo;s advanced manufacturing facilities, upgrading them to state-of-the-art for the AI age.
&ldquo;Intel's stock experienced its biggest weekly gain in over 40 years of trading history,&rdquo; says James, &ldquo;surging as much as 32% at one point.&rdquo;
And then the buzz faded. INTC trades this morning a little over $20 &mdash; basically where it sat before the rumors began, indeed where it sat back in&hellip; (gulp)... 2013.
End of the story? Hardly.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Apple just committed to spending a staggering $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years,&rdquo; says James.
&ldquo;Let that sink in for a moment &mdash; half a trillion dollars.
&ldquo;Most of the headlines focused on Apple's plans to open a server manufacturing facility in Houston and double its U.S. Advanced Manufacturing Fund.
&ldquo;But what if there's something bigger brewing beneath the surface?&rdquo;
And he means really, really big&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;What if Apple is eyeing Intel as an acquisition target?&rdquo; James asks.
&ldquo;It sounds crazy at first, but the more you look at it, the more it starts to make sense.
&ldquo;Over the past decade, Apple has gradually made moves to reduce their dependence on outside suppliers.
&ldquo;This began with the company&rsquo;s decision to design their own processors for iPhones, iPads and Macs with the highly successful M-series chips. Just last week, Apple announced the C1, their first in-house cellular modem.
&ldquo;With $54 billion in cash, Apple certainly has the financial firepower to make a big move. And Intel, despite its troubles, still possesses world-class manufacturing capabilities and a treasure trove of chip patents.
&ldquo;For Apple, acquiring Intel would mean bringing chip production fully under its control &mdash; eliminating reliance on foreign manufacturers like TSM. It would align perfectly with Apple's newly announced commitment to U.S. manufacturing and the billions it's already planning to spend on advanced silicon in TSM's Arizona facility.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> This deal of the decade would also align with the Trump administration&rsquo;s priorities.
In February, Vice President Vance declared that the most sophisticated AI hardware must be &ldquo;made in America.&rdquo;
&ldquo;When it comes to manufacturing advanced chips in the U.S.,&rdquo; says James, &ldquo;no one is further along than Intel. Last month Intel announced that their 18A manufacturing process is ready and they will begin the initial stages of preparing customer orders in the coming months.
&ldquo;18A is expected to help Intel close the gap with TSM and has already received orders from Big Tech companies like Microsoft and Amazon.&rdquo;
And all this at a time when Apple CEO Tim Cook says he&rsquo;s &ldquo;bullish on the future of American innovation."
&ldquo;What could be more innovative,&rdquo; asks James, &ldquo;than backing America's most advanced chip production?&rdquo;
An Apple partnership with Intel, or even an outright acquisition, &ldquo;could represent a generational wealth opportunity.&rdquo;
[Reminder: James and his entire research team have converged on Austin, Texas this week for the annual SXSW gathering.
Tomorrow James and crew will livestream their two-hour <a href="https://paradigmpressgroup.com/techturningpoint2025">Tech Turning Point 2025</a> event &mdash; and it couldn&rsquo;t possibly be more timely. Money is shifting out of the Magnificent 7 stocks and into a new breed of up-and-coming tech leaders. Crypto is facing challenges despite tailwinds from the Trump administration. And speaking of the Trump administration, what do Trump and Elon Musk have up their sleeve?
James and his team will address all of those questions tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. EDT. We won&rsquo;t try to sell you anything during this event. It&rsquo;s strictly for your enlightenment and enjoyment. <a href="https://paradigmpressgroup.com/techturningpoint2025">You can review the agenda at this link</a>. That link is also where you can find the live event tomorrow, so go ahead and bookmark it.]
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />NOW They&rsquo;re Talking About a Recession?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Whether it&rsquo;s the president refusing to rule out a recession (the mainstream explanation) or an ongoing reset for a market that rose too far, too fast&hellip; Mr. Market is mashing the &ldquo;sell&rdquo; button today.
At last check, the S&amp;P 500 is down 2% to 5,649 &mdash; a level last seen nearly six months ago. The index sits 8% below its record close not even three weeks ago. The Dow is holding up better, the Nasdaq worse.
Gold is serving its safe-haven role, continuing to hold onto the $2,900 level. But silver&rsquo;s losing ground, now $32.22. Crude is down modestly at $66.69.
Bitcoin went up, down and all around over the weekend &mdash; and as we write it&rsquo;s in danger of breaking below $80,000 for the first time in four months.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> To be sure, the president and his men are tamping down expectations for the economy.
As you might have heard, Donald Trump himself refused to rule out the possibility of a recession yesterday, describing a &ldquo;period of transition.&rdquo;
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned a better turn of phrase last Friday &mdash; describing a &ldquo;detox period.&rdquo;
As he put it on CNBC, &ldquo;Could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure. And look, there&rsquo;s going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> None of this should be a shock if you&rsquo;ve been following these missives regularly.
Paradigm macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards has been warning of a recession for months. From the standpoint of the Trump administration, the sooner it arrives the better.
&ldquo;In Ronald Reagan&rsquo;s first term, he inherited a recession from the Carter years,&rdquo; Jim said in this space <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-trump-speed-bump">a couple of weeks after Election Day</a>.
&ldquo;This dominated the first few years of his presidency until his policies turned the economy into a robust growth machine.
<a id="3"></a>
&ldquo;We see the incoming Trump presidency seeing a similar timeline. Expect some tough economic times in the first 12&ndash;18 months before a pivot to a strong economy in the second half of the Trump term.&rdquo;
The stock market back then, you wonder? It struggled mightily for the first 18 months of Reagan&rsquo;s administration &mdash; before launching an epic 18-year bull run in August 1982.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Trump Wavers on Time Change
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Hey, whatever happened to this?
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4xz0Dnqp9mOvbdavMvpbVS/a52f35633396d4a91b6db91f5e8f4fba/TruthDetails.png" alt="truth details" width="540px" />
If your rear end is dragging today, blame it on time change.
&ldquo;There's evidence that regularly changing sleep cycles, associated with daylight saving, lowers productivity and increases heart attacks,&rdquo; economist Allison Schrager wrote in The Atlantic over a decade ago.
For years we&rsquo;ve debunked the claims that daylight saving time conserves energy. Up until 2006, most of Indiana&rsquo;s 92 counties observed year-round standard time &mdash; in sync with New York during the winter and Chicago during the summer. Then the Hoosier state&rsquo;s legislature opted for conformity.
In 2010, researchers from Yale and the University of California, Santa Barbara concluded the energy saved by less indoor lighting during the summer months was offset by an increase in the use of heating and air conditioning. Indeed, daylight saving time contributed to a 1% jump in electricity use.
Over the weekend, The Wall Street Journal spotlighted more recent research finding that &ldquo;in some places daylight-saving time saves electricity, while in others it uses more, with the overall effect across the U.S. basically a wash.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Evidently time change is still on the Trump administration&rsquo;s radar. Last week, Elon Musk posted an enormously confusing poll on his X platform.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6EloxTMk4531lg8dyysQIo/67a80e14431215028299cee1083a6555/ElonTweet.png" alt="elon tweet" width="540px" />
The Gallup pollsters did a much more straightforward and presumably more scientific survey finding a majority of Americans wishing to ditch time change &mdash; and a plurality preferring year-round standard time.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5Xwm2AH4thu5rqz5x20HvR/d380ab1a0edaebbbadf58cd5e179eb6b/DaylightSavings.png" alt="daylight savings" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Perhaps someone should bring those poll results to Donald Trump&rsquo;s attention. Asked about the matter last Thursday he appeared to have lost interest &mdash; saying, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s a 50-50 issue, and if something&rsquo;s a 50-50 issue it&rsquo;s hard to get excited about it.
&ldquo;A lot of people like it one way, a lot of people like it the other way,&rdquo; he went on to say.
Gee, it almost sounds as if he&rsquo;s running cover for special interests. Read on&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Truth About Time Change
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />We endure the madness of DST because of special interests &mdash; going all the way back to the Uniform Time Act of 1966.
Contrary to myth, that wasn&rsquo;t done for the benefit of farmers. Indeed farmers &ldquo;now had an hour less of morning light to milk their cows and get goods ready for market,&rdquo; wrote Michael Downing in his 2005 book Spring Forward: The Madness of Daylight Saving Time.
Rather, the mid-1960s change was the doing of Big Oil &mdash; which benefited from higher gasoline consumption during the longer evenings.
But the history doesn&rsquo;t end there. As Cato Institute senior fellow Scott Lincicome wrote in 2021, &ldquo;The gas and fuel industries were then joined by the golf, home improvement and barbecue/patio industries to lobby for the 1986 expansion of DST from six to seven months, because each industry gained hundreds of millions in additional sales revenue each year.&rdquo;
Finally in 2005, seven months of DST became the current eight &mdash; &ldquo;driven,&rdquo; wrote Lincicome, &ldquo;by the National Association of Convenience Stores (NACS) and U.S. candymakers, each of which wanted Halloween to occur during DST because it boosted candy and, again, gasoline sales.&rdquo;
And while special interests prosper, Americans as a whole suffer.
&ldquo;The semiannual time change results in all sorts of maladies in the days thereafter,&rdquo; Lincicome wrote: &ldquo;car crashes and pedestrian deaths; workplace injuries; heart attacks and strokes; depression; and &lsquo;adverse medical events&rsquo; because of &lsquo;human error.&rsquo; (Mental note: Don&rsquo;t get hurt/sick on time-change weekends.)&rdquo;
In the final analysis, Lincicome concluded DST is &ldquo;an onerous state time mandate detrimental to public health and safety, manipulated by corporatists, supported by a handful of childless insomniac socialites and based on so-called &lsquo;science&rsquo; debunked decades ago.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: China-Taiwan, Our Free Event
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Do you believe that in the near future President Trump will do a deal with Xi Jinping (bypassing the Taiwanese) to avoid war with the PLA over Taiwan?&rdquo; a reader inquires after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/follow-up-chinas-tariff-wmd">last Thursday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;This would certainly save a lot of $$$ and U.S. lives and heck there are only around 24 million Taiwanese, who are indistinguishable from the Han Chinese on the mainland.
&ldquo;Would love your opinion. Keep up your scribbling.&rdquo;
Dave responds: It&rsquo;s conceivable &mdash; although I&rsquo;d hope that any &ldquo;grand bargain&rdquo; between Trump and Xi doesn&rsquo;t explicitly consign the Taiwanese to CCP rule.
At the same time &mdash; and as I expounded at length <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2023/05/23/no-blood-for-chips/">two years ago</a> &mdash; there&rsquo;s nothing about Taiwanese democracy that&rsquo;s worth risking war with a nuclear-armed mainland China. It&rsquo;s swell that Taiwan has enjoyed multiparty elections since 1996, but there&rsquo;s nothing about the freedom and prosperity of everyday Americans that hinges on it.
Unfortunately that&rsquo;s not the consensus inside the Beltway. Nor is it the consensus inside the Trump administration, loaded with China hawks itching for a confrontation.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Last, a skeptical take on James Altucher&rsquo;s <a href="https://paradigmpressgroup.com/techturningpoint2025">Tech Turning Point 2025</a> event tomorrow.
&ldquo;Response to your &lsquo;free seminar&rsquo; with &lsquo;no gimmicks&rsquo;: Sorry but my experience says that you guys, like you say everyone else is, are all about making more and more money. I don&rsquo;t usually listen because I&rsquo;m tired of the &lsquo;fear of loss&rsquo; sales pitch at the end.&rdquo;
Dave: Really?
I mean, look, admittedly we do plenty of hard sell around here. That&rsquo;s the trade-off to our business model in which we&rsquo;re funded by the subscription revenue of readers like you &mdash; rather than by advertisers or payoffs from public companies.
We recognize that over time it can become a little tiresome &mdash; so that&rsquo;s why we aim to mix things up with events like this one. (Jim Rickards and his crew will be doing something similar toward the end of April.)
Tomorrow will be strictly two hours of you listening to James Altucher and a bunch of other smart people holding forth on AI, crypto, quantum computing and biotech. And it definitely won&rsquo;t be the same-old, same-old you get from CNBC.
Once more, <a href="https://paradigmpressgroup.com/techturningpoint2025">here&rsquo;s the agenda</a> for when everything gets underway tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. EDT. Hope you can be there!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

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Paradigm AI authority James Altucher says THIS is the best way to read a rumor that hit the tech space last month… 

Deal of the Decade

Flag of China on a processor, CPU Central processing Unit

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Chinese tech juggernaut Alibaba unveils its latest artificial intelligence reasoning model that rivals DeepSeek. 

China’s Great (AI) Leap Forward

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Follow-up: China&rsquo;s Tariff WMD 
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we&rsquo;re ready to fight till the end."
Yesterday we briefly touched on a brusque statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry in response to the latest Trump tariffs. It deserves more attention today &mdash; not least because it&rsquo;s getting overlooked by liberal legacy media and conservative &ldquo;new media&rdquo; alike.
In fact, the whole thing is worth a block quote, something we rarely do&hellip;
<blockquote>The fentanyl issue is a flimsy excuse to raise U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. Our countermeasures to defend our rights and interests are fully legitimate and necessary.</blockquote>
<blockquote>The U.S., not anyone else, is responsible for the #FentanylCrisis inside the U.S. In the spirit of humanity and goodwill toward the American people, we have taken robust steps to assist the U.S. in dealing with the issue. Instead of recognizing our efforts, the U.S. has sought to smear and shift blame to China, and is seeking to pressure and blackmail China with tariff hikes. They&rsquo;ve been PUNISHING us for helping them. This is not going to solve the U.S.&rsquo; problem and will undermine our counternarcotics dialogue and cooperation.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Intimidation does not scare us. Bullying does not work on us. Pressuring, coercion or threats are not the right way of dealing with China. Anyone using maximum pressure on China is picking the wrong guy and miscalculating. If the U.S. truly wants to solve the fentanyl issue, then the right thing to do is to consult with China by treating each other as equals.</blockquote>
<blockquote>If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we&rsquo;re ready to fight till the end.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;This leaves zero room for interpretation: China is clearly signaling they won&rsquo;t be cowed by Trump,&rdquo; tweets the internet entrepreneur Arnaud Bertrand.
In 2010, Bertrand co-founded HouseTrip &mdash; an online platform geared toward rental-house sharing in Europe. He sold it to TripAdvisor in 2016. Married to a Chinese woman, he has quite the global perspective; I don&rsquo;t agree with everything he says but his feed on X is worth checking out.
As Bertrand sees it, China&rsquo;s defiant stance contrasts with what we&rsquo;ve seen from other governments since Trump&rsquo;s inauguration &mdash; to wit, Colombia&rsquo;s president folding like a lawn chair and agreeing to take back migrants expelled from the United States.
Ironically, &ldquo;This will probably earn China even more respect from Trump (and the rest of the world) than a subservient approach,&rdquo; Bertrand avers.
&ldquo;As the Chinese saying goes, if you retreat one step they'll want to advance one step.&rdquo;
Interesting. Brings to mind something Trump said on the campaign trail last June: "We have enemies on the outside &mdash; China, Russia, North Korea. But they're not really enemies if you have a smart president. They're not enemies, you&rsquo;ll make them do great."
And something he said on Inauguration Day: &ldquo;My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier.&rdquo;
For the sake of our peace and prosperity, let&rsquo;s hope that&rsquo;s the case.
Of course, getting from here to there could be a hair-raising experience.
Which brings to mind a tariff-themed warning from Paradigm&rsquo;s macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards that landed in your inbox yesterday.
In case you didn&rsquo;t see it, he said, &ldquo;While everyone has been focusing on Canada and Mexico,
China has been preparing <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2418552">a </a><a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2418552">trade war WMD</a> of its own.&rdquo;
It&rsquo;s set to launch in four more days &mdash; &ldquo;and President Trump is prepared to fire back with a &lsquo;kill shot&rsquo; of his own,&rdquo; says Jim.
If you have money in the markets, you won&rsquo;t want to pass up Jim&rsquo;s urgent briefing from Pentagon City. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2418552">Click here to watch immediately</a>.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Crypto Revival
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Hmmm&hellip; Bitcoin has climbed back above $90,000.
$90K is the number that Paradigm chart hound Greg Guenthner told us on Tuesday was a line in the sand. A recovery to that level would bode well for the flagship crypto; otherwise a drop to $73K might be in the cards.
Checking our screens Bitcoin is up to $90,692 &mdash; perhaps in anticipation of concrete news emerging tomorrow from a crypto summit hosted by White House crypto-and-AI czar David Sacks.
Context: In January, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told CNBC that the banking industry is ready to &ldquo;come in hard&rdquo; on crypto &mdash; once the new administration clarifies the rules of the road.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are already experimenting with blockchain technology,&rdquo; Paradigm&rsquo;s own crypto and AI authority James Altucher reminds us.
&ldquo;And now, as Washington prepares to clarify cryptocurrency regulations, banks are getting ready to act.
&ldquo;The biggest development? Banks might soon let you put your checking account on the blockchain. They're calling it &lsquo;tokenized deposits.&rsquo; (Don't worry about the fancy name &mdash; it just means your money moves at internet speed.)
&ldquo;This is a complete U-turn from just a year ago. Under the previous administration, banks were told to stay away from crypto. Now, they're being encouraged to dive in.
&ldquo;Even the usually strict FDIC (the people who insure your bank deposits) is changing its tune. They're working on new rules to let banks offer crypto services without jumping through endless hoops.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Three consequences: &ldquo;First, cryptocurrency is about to become much easier to use,&rdquo; says James.
&ldquo;Instead of dealing with complicated crypto exchanges, you might soon buy Bitcoin through your regular bank account.
&ldquo;Second, sending money across borders could become as easy as sending an email.
&ldquo;And third &mdash; this might be the biggest one &mdash; we're watching the birth of a new financial system. One that combines the safety of traditional banks with the speed of cryptocurrency.
&ldquo;For investors, this is like watching the internet boom of the 1990s all over again. But this time, the banks aren't fighting the technology. They're embracing it. And they're bringing trillions of dollars with them.
&ldquo;The crypto market is already worth over $2 trillion. Imagine what happens when JPMorgan's $3.9 trillion in assets starts flowing into the space. Or when Bank of America's 68 million customers can buy Bitcoin as easily as they check their balance.
&ldquo;We're not just talking about price increases. We're talking about a complete transformation of how money moves around the world. And it's happening right now.&rdquo;
On the heels of the White House crypto summit tomorrow, James will host an exclusive online event for Paradigm readers next Tuesday &mdash; live from the SXSW confab in Austin, Texas.
Of course, crypto is only a small part of an ambitious agenda. Among the topics James says he and his team will cover&hellip;
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;Are artificial intelligence stocks in a bubble that&rsquo;s ready to pop?</li>
<li>&ldquo;How will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. shake up drugmakers and biotechs?</li>
<li>&ldquo;Can quantum computers become the next trillion dollar-industry, or are they just sci-fi hype?&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
There will be no hard sell &mdash; no selling at all, matter of fact. It all gets going next Tuesday the 11th at 2:00 p.m. EDT.<a href="https://paradigmpressgroup.com/techturningpoint2025">Here&rsquo;s the full agenda</a>; you&rsquo;ll want to bookmark that website because that&rsquo;s where the live event will be hosted.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Actually, This Is Normal
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As lousy as the recent stock-market sell-off might feel, it&rsquo;s shockingly normal by the standards of the last couple of years.
Going back to the start of the current bull market in late 2022, &ldquo;there have been four major sell-offs in the S&amp;P 500 between 5&ndash;10%,&rdquo; says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta.
This chart is a little messy, but it&rsquo;s the only way to illustrate his point.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1fs0aknZl5wB7p0Kkmsavb/76877a6d9c93855fd94ce7ad78d7cbe8/SP500-3-6.png" alt="S&amp;P 500" width="540px" />
&ldquo;As painful as this pullback has been,&rdquo; says Enrique, &ldquo;you will see in the chart that it&rsquo;s fairly ordinary compared with what we have seen so far. It&rsquo;s also very typical of a normal bull market.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> In the meantime, the major U.S. stock averages are gyrating with every new tariff headline.
After we hit &ldquo;send&rdquo; on yesterday&rsquo;s edition, Donald Trump said automakers who comply with the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade accord signed during his first term will be exempt from the new Canadian and Mexican tariffs for 30 days. Mr. Market rebounded, the S&amp;P 500 ending the day up 1.1%.
Today, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says additional one-month exemptions are in the cards. But with no additional clarity, the sell-off has resumed. At 5,794 the S&amp;P 500 is down more than three-quarters of a percent on the day &mdash; but still higher than Tuesday&rsquo;s close.
For the moment, watching precious metals is like watching paint dry &mdash; gold at $2,915 and silver at $32.66. Crude is rebounding slightly, but remains under $66.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Republicans Back Financial Cancellation
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Go figure: Republicans are about to make &ldquo;financial deplatforming&rdquo; a thing again.
Over the years we&rsquo;ve chronicled how payment platforms like PayPal and Venmo would cancel the accounts of people who expressed opinions online that the platforms deem &ldquo;hate speech&rdquo; or &ldquo;misinformation.&rdquo;
And it wasn&rsquo;t just racism or COVID dissent that were causes for cancellation: For instance, PayPal stopped processing donations to the venerable alt-news website Consortium News because its writers expressed opinions about Ukraine that ran counter to official narratives.
Strangely, on its way out the door the Biden administration implemented a rule in December forbidding this sort of financial cancellation on ideological grounds.
It was part of a general overhaul of rules at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) governing non-bank financial services like PayPal, Apple Pay and Zelle.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Yesterday, the Senate voted to kill this rule.
The vote was 50-47 &mdash; with every Republican on the floor voting &ldquo;yea&rdquo; except Missouri&rsquo;s Josh Hawley.
&ldquo;I don&rsquo;t want to hear the GOP call themselves the free speech party ever again,&rdquo; tweets the provocateur Laura Loomer.
Ms. Loomer is a garbage human &mdash; but she&rsquo;s not wrong. And she knows the phenomenon firsthand, having been cancelled over the years by PayPal, GoFundMe and Uber.
&ldquo;You can oppose the ideological bias of CFPB,&rdquo; she says, &ldquo;while also not voting to repeal consumer and free speech protections when we 100% have a monopoly in our country by Big Tech companies as it relates to payment services.&rdquo;
A companion bill in the House is still in committee. As far as we know, the White House hasn&rsquo;t taken a stand on the legislation.
Gee, that might be an interesting question to ask for one of the &ldquo;new media&rdquo; outlets who&rsquo;ve been granted White House press passes.
No, I&rsquo;m not holding my breath. And yes, on a lark I did apply for one. Heh&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: JFK Again
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> From a longtime reader who doesn&rsquo;t write to us often&hellip;
&ldquo;I always enjoy reading your take on the news, and the frequent tongue-in-cheek humor (even if I don't agree with 100% of your assertions).
&ldquo;Over the years, you have poked fun at Bezos' newspaper and its pretentious slogan &lsquo;Democracy Dies in Darkness.&rsquo;
&ldquo;It occurred to me that a more accurate slogan would be &lsquo;Democracy Died in Dallas.&rsquo;
&ldquo;You folks at Paradigm have written some excellent pieces over the years on how Nov. 22, 1963 was <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/from-jfk-to-jeffrey-epstein">a true watershed moment</a>. One can make a strong case that the Kennedy presidency represented the last time (perhaps until now, I say with skepticism) that the will of the American people had any meaningful influence in Washington.
&ldquo;Kennedy's death paved the way for the unelected bureaucrats, three-letter agencies and the lobbyist/think tank cartel (through their pet politicians) to take control of our federal government and lead us down the war and deficit spending pathway that we've been on ever since.
&ldquo;As one of the minority who thinks DJT is neither Hitler reborn nor the second coming of Christ, I remain optimistic yet highly skeptical that the course we've been on the last 60 years might be reversed. There's a lot to be done, and it all comes with some amount of short-term pain for the American people. But lifesaving surgery is never painless, nor is recovery and rehabilitation quick.&rdquo;
Dave responds: And there&rsquo;s so much that could go wrong on the operating table!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

awn-hero-img-02-04-25 Container US of America crashed Container China trade war concept. US of America and chinese flags containers .

shutterstock 1397204081

Yesterday we briefly touched on a brusque statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry in response to the latest Trump tariffs.

Follow-up: China’s Tariff WMD

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Divided Nation, Fragile Market
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The most newsworthy thing to emerge from the president&rsquo;s address to Congress last night took place before he ever took the podium.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2SNmY5c4crtSnLMZnePZcD/0c17d616047cda1b1a0e55e760b07150/trump-this-is-not-normal.png" alt="This Is Not Normal Sign" />
Holding up that sign is Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-New Mexico) &mdash; a third-term Congress member from Albuquerque.
The most newsworthy thing is that the Democratic Party is still on its heels after the 2024 elections.
Or to put it more bluntly, they still don&rsquo;t get it.
Really, who other than the most committed Democratic partisan is energized by that hoary old recycled-from-2017 message?
Look, you can oppose many of this president&rsquo;s policies &mdash; goodness knows I do &mdash; and still understand that &ldquo;normal&rdquo; is what a plurality of the electorate soundly rejected four months ago today.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Ahead of the speech last night, Paradigm&rsquo;s own Mason Sexton told his readers that the address &ldquo;will further expose the deep divide and political polarization that exists between the two parties.
&ldquo;&lsquo;A recent survey by Pew Research has shown that ideological thinking &lsquo;is now much more closely aligned with partisanship than in the past.
&ldquo;&lsquo;As a result, ideological overlap between the two parties has diminished: Today, 92% of Republicans are to the right of the median Democrat, and 94% of Democrats are to the left of the median Republican. Partisan animosity has increased substantially over the [past two decades].&rsquo;
&ldquo;Each party's share of a highly negative view of the opposing party has more than doubled since 1994. Most of these intense partisans believe the opposing party's policies &lsquo;are so misguided that they threaten the nation&rsquo;s well-being.&rsquo;&rdquo;
[That&rsquo;s literally the language the Pew pollsters use when querying everyday folks.]
Perhaps you got a sense of that divide from the mailbag section in yesterday&rsquo;s edition &mdash; featuring reactions to the Trump-Zelenskyy fracas last Friday. One side labeled Trump &ldquo;a petulant, amoral schoolyard bully&rdquo; while another described Zelenskyy as &ldquo;an entitled dwarf in sweatpants.&rdquo; (More where that came from later in today&rsquo;s edition&hellip;)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Wherever you stand, know this: Partisan divides have consequences in the markets.
Too soon to say what the precise fallout from last night&rsquo;s address will be. But Mr. Sexton says this much is certain: &ldquo;It will be sharp, sudden and disturbing to the natural order of things.&rdquo;
Credit where it&rsquo;s due: Mason called the minor meltdown that hit the market at the start of this week. On Monday he said: &ldquo;We continue to believe that a &lsquo;retest&rsquo; of the 1/13/25 low is likely by late March or early April and that we could see a &lsquo;big down day&rsquo; on or about March 12.&rdquo;
Yesterday&rsquo;s sell-off fulfilled that forecast: While the S&amp;P 500 took a 3% spill in two days, readers of The Map pocketed a 3% gain in the same time frame.
Looking ahead, he says &ldquo;a major correction is unfolding, and this is just the beginning.
&ldquo;We remain concerned about the macro risks, technical signals and cyclical pressures suggesting that this market is far from stable.&rdquo;
For several weeks, we&rsquo;ve told you how March 20 is a date Mason has circled on his calendar. That&rsquo;s only 15 days away now.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Follow the Bouncing Tariff News
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />On the day after Trump&rsquo;s speech, the big market story is another potential pivot on tariffs.
As we mentioned yesterday, 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are now in effect. But some of them might be lifted as early as the time you open this email.
Reminder: The Canadian and Mexican tariffs aren&rsquo;t about trade as much as they&rsquo;re about drug trafficking, especially fentanyl. It appears they&rsquo;ll be adjusted if the White House thinks there&rsquo;s progress on that front.
Said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to Bloomberg TV this morning: "My thinking is it's going to be somewhere in the middle. So not 100% of all products and not none.&rdquo;
But don&rsquo;t expect a similar pivot with the new 10% tariff on Chinese goods &mdash; which definitely got Beijing&rsquo;s back up.
&ldquo;The fentanyl issue is a flimsy excuse to raise U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports,&rdquo; says a brusque statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. &ldquo;Anyone using maximum pressure on China is picking the wrong guy and miscalculating.&rdquo; (<a href="https://x.com/MFA_China/status/1896904623589621816" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The whole thing</a> is worth a read.)
During his speech last night, the president confirmed he will impose &ldquo;reciprocal&rdquo; tariffs on all nations effective April 2. "Whatever they tariff us, other countries, we will tariff them. That's reciprocal - back and forth. Whatever they tax us, we will tax them.&rdquo;
Trump&rsquo;s warm relationship with India&rsquo;s Prime Minister Modi notwithstanding, he called out India by name: "India charges us auto tariffs higher than 100%."
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />While traders await the latest word on the Canadian and Mexican tariffs, the major U.S. indexes are slipping a bit.
At last check, the S&amp;P 500 is down 0.4% to 5,755. The Dow&rsquo;s losses are more modest, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s steeper.
Gold is holding its own at $2,921 while silver has rallied big &mdash; up 55 cents as we write to $32.47. And the HUI index of mining stocks is up 2.8% to 322.
Traders in the oil market seem to be betting that tariffs will put a hurt on global trade and thus on global demand for crude: At last check a barrel of West Texas Intermediate is down over 4% to $65.45. At that price, crude is testing a low that held consistently last fall. If it cracks, our Jim Rickards&rsquo; forecast of sub-$60 oil could come about even sooner than he expects.
No joy in crypto-land with Bitcoin a hair below $88,000.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />You Can Profit From Mr. Market&rsquo;s Overreaction
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I love buying high-quality companies that get dragged down by news that has nothing to do with their business,&rdquo; writes Davis Wilson at our sister e-letter The Million Mission.
Companies that are largely immune to tariffs sold off yesterday and the day before, along with everything else.
&ldquo;Tariffs hurt companies with heavy international supply chains,&rdquo; Davis reminds us &mdash; &ldquo;industrials, automakers and retailers with global sourcing will feel the squeeze.
&ldquo;But some companies are almost completely insulated from these policies, yet their stocks are falling anyway.&rdquo;
Among the companies Davis has in mind are Facebook parent Meta Platforms. &ldquo;It doesn&rsquo;t manufacture goods, and its revenue comes from businesses buying ads. Tariffs don&rsquo;t change its business model. With unmatched scale, AI-driven ad targeting and record earnings growth, Meta is an unstoppable force in digital advertising, driving higher engagement and monetization.&rdquo;
Other names in this bucket are Uber Technologies (UBER) and Fannie Mae (FNMA) &mdash; which Davis <a href="https://million-mission.com/posts/buy-alert-extremely-rare-5x-return-opportunity" target="_blank" rel="noopener">described</a> last month as a rare opportunity to make five times your money without buying options.
&ldquo;If you already own these stocks, sit tight,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;And if you don&rsquo;t own them yet, consider this your buy alert.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Follow-up: Reprieve for Small Business
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Small-business owners now have an indefinite reprieve from onerous new regulations.
&ldquo;The U.S. Treasury Department said it won&rsquo;t take enforcement action against American companies for not divulging ownership information under the Corporate Transparency Act,&rdquo; per The Wall Street Journal.
Passed in 2021, this law requires up to 32 million small businesses to file a new form about their &ldquo;beneficial ownership&rdquo; with FinCEN, the Treasury&rsquo;s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. It was yet another attempt by the feds to stop &ldquo;money laundering&rdquo; via anonymous shell companies.
As we mentioned here in January, the deadline to comply was New Year&rsquo;s Day. But as of Dec. 2 last year, fewer than a third of businesses affected by the law had gotten around to submitting the paperwork.
The National Federation of Independent Business tried to challenge the law in court with no success. Technically the law remains in effect. But in a statement on Sunday, the Treasury said it won&rsquo;t enforce any penalties against U.S. citizens or companies that run afoul of the law.
That&rsquo;s not as good as outright repeal &mdash; which would take an act of Congress &mdash; but it&rsquo;s not a first for a Trump presidency. Enforcement of the &ldquo;individual mandate&rdquo; to buy health insurance under Obamacare was suspended during the Trump 45 years. (And it&rsquo;s being dialed back again now.)
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Ukraine, Income Taxes
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />About that polarized response I mentioned earlier to <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/zelenskyy-just-rescued-trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting&hellip;</a>
&ldquo;Unsubscribe me. I feel dirty just reading your bull****,&rdquo; says one reader. &ldquo;Trump is Putin's bitch and are you such a fool you can't see it?
&ldquo;It was disgusting and immoral what happened. And you give investment a bad name. What is your Russian name? Trump acted like the thugs from the KGB. Please stop the bull**** just &lsquo;cause you wanna get rich and you don't give a **** about anybody else but yourselves.&rdquo;
On the flipside, &ldquo;Trump should end the war by making new alliances with Russia,&rdquo; counters another.
&ldquo;Russia has more minerals than Ukraine anyway! Zelenskyy and his Ukraine government are extremely corrupt. We should not be supporting them in any way. We should also get out of NATO and bring our troops home from Europe.&rdquo;
Dave responds: To the first reader, I realize you&rsquo;re gone now &mdash; but if Ukraine&rsquo;s cause is that important to you, there&rsquo;s nothing stopping you from kitting up and hopping the next plane to Kyiv. Sounds like they could use the help about now.
To the second reader, why on earth should Washington pursue an alliance with Moscow? I realize many conservatives look kindly upon Putin as some sort of anti-woke icon or protector of Christendom or whatever&hellip; but come on.
George Washington&rsquo;s warning in his farewell address about &ldquo;sympathy for a favored nation&rdquo; really applies to both sides here&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I agree with James Altucher that a consumption tax should replace the federal income tax altogether,&rdquo; a reader writes after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/nix-the-income-tax" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yesterday&rsquo;s Bullet No. 1</a>.
&ldquo;Before 1913 (when the 16th Amendment was ratified, authorizing federal income tax, the federal government got its income from revenue tariffs and use/excise taxes.
&ldquo;But if the 16th Amendment is not repealed, we would end up with both federal VAT and income taxes, like in Europe.&rdquo;
Dave: You are absolutely right and I&rsquo;ve said as much now and then for several years.
Ditto for Trump&rsquo;s occasional musings about replacing the income tax with tariffs, harking back to those pre-1913 days. It would have to come with repeal of the 16th Amendment.
Of course, there&rsquo;s a related issue which my old colleague Jeffrey Tucker pointed out a few weeks ago. He gets the last word today&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/fbYWAWQy8zaYL0PpidjRw/6147fbd6a1ced5cc0c57d28f22b1ba94/tucker_tweet.png" alt="tucker tweet" />

shutterstock 1841229298 (1)

Mason Sexton says the market fallout from Trump’s address "will be sharp, sudden and disturbing to the natural order of things.”

Divided Nation, Fragile Market

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Nix the Income Tax
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Even if the Trump administration is cutting personnel at the IRS, it&rsquo;s probably not a good idea to blow off filing your 1040 this spring.
About 6,700 positions are being eliminated, mostly new hires who hadn&rsquo;t made it through their probationary period yet &mdash; roughly 7% of the total workforce.
Nearly half of those positions belong to the Small Business/Self-Employed Division. That&rsquo;s excellent news, seeing as over the years the agency has aggressively shaken down small-business owners and the self-employed for inflating deductions and (especially) underreporting income.
But if the thought of simply not filing has crossed your mind&hellip; well, as Inspector Harry Callahan put it in a different context, &ldquo;You&rsquo;ve got to ask yourself one question: &lsquo;Do I feel lucky?&rsquo;&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;America ran just fine without an income tax for most of its history,&rdquo; says Paradigm&lsquo;s James Altucher. &ldquo;Actually, not just fine &mdash; the economy BOOMED.
&ldquo;The country grew from a scrappy collection of states to a global powerhouse, all without taking a cut of your paycheck.&rdquo;
Chances are you know James as our resident AI and crypto authority. But for over a decade now he&rsquo;s also presided over a wide-ranging podcast with the refreshingly simple title The James Altucher Show.
And in a recent edition, he laid out a comprehensive plan to do away with the IRS: &ldquo;No more IRS audits, tax filings or loopholes,&rdquo; he says.
&ldquo;You keep 100% of what you earn. No payroll deductions. No filing in April. No audits. Nothing.&rdquo;
What&rsquo;s more, James says under his scheme Uncle Sam wouldn&rsquo;t lose a dime of revenue. And yet the U.S. economy would grow by an additional $3.75 trillion a year.
How can it be done?
<a href="https://lnk.to/USEIRS?vid2=f7584bb8d0f8b4ef03ea4a2a79cb9ffebd5601637dfb4b221b21055bfe10aa56fb9565c7166c12ea93687031263ed97489aead8f437e4ddd1cfcbcd5e6a6bb06&amp;utm_campaign=ALC_Issue_02.27.25_&amp;utm_source=Iterable&amp;itbl_templateId=16704608&amp;itbl_campaignId=12752343&amp;utm_medium=Email">Hear him out at this link</a>. It&rsquo;ll take only 29 minutes of your time. And it&rsquo;s a great opportunity to listen to James opine about something outside his wheelhouse. Enjoy.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Meanwhile, James is gearing up for the event of the year that&rsquo;s inside his wheelhouse.
One week from today, James and his team of analysts will host a livestream from the annual SXSW confab in Austin, Texas. The theme couldn&rsquo;t be more timely: Tech Turning Point 2025.
Hoo boy, is there ever a turning point. Those &ldquo;Magnificent 7&rdquo; stocks don&rsquo;t look so magnificent these days, do they?
And yet&hellip; big money is making big moves in the tech space. James says when it comes to AI, the top is not in &mdash; but the most lucrative opportunities aren&rsquo;t where you probably think.
Everything that&rsquo;s Altucher-adjacent will be on the table next Tuesday &mdash; AI, crypto, quantum computing, biotech and of course the impact Elon Musk and Donald Trump are having on all of them.
This is a free event strictly for your enlightenment and enjoyment. We won&rsquo;t try to sell you anything.
It gets underway next Tuesday, March 11 at 2:00 p.m. EDT. We&rsquo;ll send you more information and a link to the event as we get closer to the day &mdash; watch this space.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Tariff Tension
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Whether it&rsquo;s tariffs (the mainstream explanation) or simply a market that got out too far out over its skis (more likely)... the S&amp;P 500 has given up all its gains since Election Day.
After we went to virtual press yesterday, President Trump announced that 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico were definitely happening. (Indeed, they&rsquo;re in effect this morning.) Ditto for a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, on top of the 10% tariff imposed last month. (All three nations have announced tit-for-tat tariffs themselves.)
The market&rsquo;s gains up to that moment yesterday instantly went poof. The S&amp;P ended the day with a 1.8% loss. Checking our screens this morning, we&rsquo;re looking at another 1.8% drop. The Dow is taking the blow slightly better, the Nasdaq slightly worse.
At 5,742 the S&amp;P is indeed back to Election Day levels. If it makes you feel any better, this number was a record high in early October.
Yes, the market fell out of bed as soon as Trump made the announcement yesterday. But as we often point out on occasions like this&hellip; whenever the market goes up too far too fast, there will always be an excuse to sell.
If it weren&rsquo;t tariffs this time around, it would be something else.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> That&rsquo;s not to say tariffs won&rsquo;t have an impact. They will.
Folks in the know say we&rsquo;re looking at potential supply-chain disruptions for steel and other metals, fertilizer and auto parts.
And we&rsquo;re looking at higher prices for a vast array of consumer goods from cars to mobile phones to beef to avocados to lumber. &ldquo;The easier thing to do might be to list the products that won't be affected,&rdquo; quips Reason writer Liz Wolfe.
And more is coming, the president promises&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/rTpau3QiKKp4JfHiY3StO/c914af9a3c896ba1160715df6b318928/TrumpTweet-3-4.png" alt="trump tweet" width="540px" />
That could be interesting. As one commenter on X says, &ldquo;I hope the ppl of America develop a taste for soybeans.&rdquo; (No, thanks.)
To date, Trump has made little effort to sell the American people on the necessity of the sacrifice they&rsquo;ll inevitably make. He&rsquo;ll have a chance to remedy that tonight in an address to a joint session of Congress.
[Editor&rsquo;s note: We&rsquo;re told the theme of the address is &ldquo;The Renewal of the American Dream.&rdquo; And our Jim Rickards believes during the speech Trump will drop &ldquo;a bombshell surprise no one sees coming&rdquo; &mdash; benefiting one company in particular.
That&rsquo;s based on a signal from Jim&rsquo;s patented AI stock software, Project Prophecy 2.0. A very similar signal occurred just before Election Day &mdash; which Jim used to help readers make 102% gains in less than two weeks.
For obvious reasons, you&rsquo;ll want to act before the speech tonight &mdash; which as a practical matter means you&rsquo;ll want to act before the market closes today at 4:00 p.m. EST. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2417760">Click here and Jim will lay out the stakes</a>.]
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Crypto: Do-or-Die Time
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Whatever happens next in the crypto space might hinge on Trump&rsquo;s address tonight.
As we mentioned in yesterday&rsquo;s edition, the president gave a momentary lift to Bitcoin, Ethereum and three other coins with the announcement of plans for a &ldquo;U.S. Crypto Reserve.&rdquo;
And we do mean momentary. Bitcoin instantly shot up $9,000 to about $94,100, only for the entirety of the rally to fade within 24 hours. This morning we&rsquo;re looking at a number under $83,000. The other coins Trump mentioned have made similar moves.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;BTC is living on prayer every day it trades below $90K,&rdquo; says Paradigm chart hound Greg Guenthner.
&ldquo;To be clear, I believe Bitcoin has a long road ahead. That road merely leads to the downside if it&rsquo;s trading below its December low. The late-2024 low marks a psychological level that put a floor in Bitcoin until last week.&rdquo;
Barring a quick recovery to $90K, &ldquo;We will likely see lower prices in the weeks ahead,&rdquo; says Greg. &ldquo;In fact, I bet Bitcoin makes a beeline for $73,000, a likely landing spot marking the top of 2024&rsquo;s sideways range.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5jIlzvlfTjI1JRzie8hvvZ/c2716e9768f0c86877321685e6c609a1/3.4_5_Bullets_Chart.png" alt="do or dir for the crypto king" width="540px" />
&ldquo;No, that&rsquo;s probably not the end of the world for Bitcoin,&rdquo; Greg allows. &ldquo;It&rsquo;ll turn out just fine after a longer drawdown and consolidation.
&ldquo;Or perhaps Trump will make claims during tonight&rsquo;s address that steer buyers toward BTC and the entire crypto space.
&ldquo;I won&rsquo;t hold my breath. Instead, I&rsquo;ll focus on the levels.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As for hard assets, gold has reclaimed the $2,900 level for the first time since Thursday &mdash; the bid back to $2,907 at last check.
But the move lacks conviction. Silver and the miners aren&rsquo;t confirming. Indeed, silver is losing ground at $31.55. And the HUI index of mining stocks is down over three-quarters of a percent to 309.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Oil Low and Going Lower
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> With OPEC planning to open the spigots, the price of crude sits near a three-month low at $67.48.
OPEC oil ministers have confirmed they&rsquo;re going ahead with plans to step up production starting next month &mdash; a move the Financial Times calls &ldquo;unexpected.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Saudi Arabia and seven other members of the OPEC+ group had previously delayed a plan to unwind long-standing output cuts several times and traders had widely expected it to be postponed again.&rdquo;
Instead, production will be gradually bumped up by 2.2 million barrels a day over the next 18 months. (Total global production in 2023 was 96.4 million barrels a day.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> A drop in oil prices comes as no surprise to readers of Rickards&rsquo; Strategic Intelligence. And it&rsquo;s likely not over.
Looking back over the last two years, &ldquo;Oil prices have been stubbornly high,&rdquo; Jim observed only yesterday. &ldquo;This persistence is somewhat surprising.
&ldquo;Over the same period, headline inflation has dropped from 5.0% to 3.0%, global growth has slowed, growth in Germany, Japan and the U.K. are at or near recession levels and there has been a glut in oil supply notwithstanding sanctions on exports of Russian oil (which have failed badly).
&ldquo;This strength in oil prices is about to end. The supply glut continues. With an end to the Ukraine war in sight, Russian oil will once again flow freely. Trump&rsquo;s &lsquo;drill, baby, drill&rsquo; policies will increase U.S. supply from offshore sources and new drilling on federal lands. Even the long-delayed Keystone XL pipeline may bring more Canadian oil to U.S. users.
&ldquo;Meanwhile, growth continues to slow in developed economies and Chinese growth is slowing rapidly due to high debts, declining demographics and global trade wars.&rdquo;
Jim&rsquo;s bottom line: Don&rsquo;t be surprised if crude plunges to $60 or even lower in the coming year.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: The Oval Office Showdown
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> An offhand request for reader input on the Trump-Zelenskyy confrontation at the White House netted a prolific response we didn&rsquo;t expect.
Pasted into a Word document it comes out to 27 pages. Not as many as our broad inquiry &ldquo;What happened to America?&rdquo; in 2023 (33 pages)... or our 2020 inquiry about what a &ldquo;socialist takeover&rdquo; would mean to you (43 pages!)... but still substantial.
In the interest of brevity we&rsquo;re truncating many of the responses&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;How anyone can watch that Trump/Zelenskyy press conference and not see Trump as a petulant, amoral schoolyard bully is absolutely beyond me,&rdquo; says a not-atypical response.
&ldquo;Zelenskyy behaved admirably and with incredible restraint right up to the point where Trump made it clear he sees moral equivalency between Putin, a brutal authoritarian dictator, and Zelenskyy, a man who&rsquo;s spent the last three years trying to defend his country against invasion from said brutal authoritarian dictator.&rdquo;
&ldquo;I have never been so embarrassed for my country as I was last Friday!&rdquo; says another. &ldquo;Trump and Vance were wrong as two left shoes! And Yes Zelenskyy Was Set Up!&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I laughed out loud watching what seemed like a comedy show in the Oval Office,&rdquo; a reader writes.
&ldquo;I watched an entitled dwarf in sweatpants poke the bear and then sit back with arms crossed arrogantly as though he won.&rdquo;
&ldquo;I believe Zelenskyy's meltdown handed Trump a huge opportunity to get the hell out of there,&rdquo; says another. &ldquo;We've spent billions and have nothing to show for it, other than a heightened prospect of World War III. Run, Donald, RUN!!!! The Europeans are scrambling in the face of actually fighting the war on their own and paying for it for once.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I thought you guys had it all wrong about this not being a trap,&rdquo; reads one observation.
&ldquo;My rationale was that Trump knew the deal was not the deal he wanted, so he and his bro (Vance) decided to blow it up. Yes, I did watch the entire debacle and, yes, I am a rational person.
&ldquo;However, after seeing how the market reacted to this tiff and how European leaders reacted I believe you are correct. The economic and political indicators point to a spontaneous situation.
&ldquo;Also, I think Trump screwed up by revealing information he was not supposed to. I am referring to his telling Zelenskyy he is running out of soldiers. Russia heard it and that is why they started hitting Ukrainian training bases and stopped bombing hospitals. I don't think Trump did this on purpose, at least I hope not.
&ldquo;I do think this was a mistake, hence another indication of a spontaneous situation, not a contrived one.&rdquo;
Dave responds: It&rsquo;s not exactly a state secret that Ukraine is &ldquo;running out of soldiers.&rdquo; The historian Michael Vlahos compares Ukraine&rsquo;s losses to those of France in World War I.
As we write, Zelenskyy seems to be backtracking &mdash; calling Friday&rsquo;s events &ldquo;regrettable&rdquo; and saying he&rsquo;s ready to sign a minerals deal with Washington &ldquo;at any time.&rdquo;
That comes roughly 12 hours after Trump cut off all U.S. military aid to Ukraine &mdash; even materiel that was already being unloaded off ships in Poland.
All that said, it&rsquo;s hard to imagine how Trump could return to negotiations now without seriously losing face&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

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“America ran just fine without an income tax for most of its history,” says Paradigm‘s James Altucher. “Actually, not just fine — the economy BOOMED.

Nix the Income Tax

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Zelenskyy Just Rescued Trump
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Yes, you read the subject line of today&rsquo;s edition right: Ukraine&rsquo;s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy just pulled Donald Trump&rsquo;s chestnuts out of the fire.
We won&rsquo;t dwell on the who, what, when and where of the spectacle at the White House on Friday. You&rsquo;re familiar with it by now.
Although, as Matt Taibbi writes at his Racket News page on Substack, &ldquo;It takes a special type of person to show up uninvited to the White House and accuse the president of being Putin&rsquo;s bitch in the middle of demanding continued billions from him in military support.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> We&rsquo;re seeing much online chatter suggesting that Trump and Vice President Vance somehow &ldquo;ambushed&rdquo; Zelenskyy &mdash; and maneuvered him into making a fool of himself. 
But the evidence is unpersuasive.
&ldquo;Anyone who rationally watches the full 50 minutes will see it was not an &lsquo;ambush,&rsquo;&rdquo; tweets independent journalist Michael Tracey.
&ldquo;The first 40 minutes were normal and cordial. Then came the self-inflicted meltdown by Zelenskyy.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But don&rsquo;t take it from us. Take it from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
On the Sunday talk show circuit Bessent made it clear that Trump was ready to sign a deal on Friday &mdash; in which the U.S. government would gain access to the proceeds from an &ldquo;investment fund&rdquo; that would develop Ukraine&rsquo;s mineral resources.
&ldquo;All President Zelenskyy had to do was come in and sign this economic agreement, and again show no daylight &mdash; no daylight &mdash; between Ukrainian people and the American people, and he chose to blow that up,&rdquo; he told CBS.
Bessent went on to say the deal aimed &ldquo;to further intertwine the American people and Ukrainian people and show no daylight. To show the Russian leadership that there was no daylight. And President Zelenskyy came into the Oval Office and tried to relitigate in front of the world the deal.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Just two days before the meltdown in the Oval Office, we observed that the minerals deal was a sign Trump was failing his <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/nvidias-buyout-bait#3">&ldquo;Vietnam moment.&rdquo;</a> But Zelenskyy came to Trump&rsquo;s rescue &mdash; even if he didn&rsquo;t intend to.
Daniel McAdams, director of the Ron Paul Institute, addressed Trump on X: &ldquo;You have escaped a potentially disastrous entangling alliance - this time with a guy who craps in your office and insults you to your face.
&ldquo;You have now an INCREDIBLE opportunity to WALK AWAY from Joe Biden's IDIOTIC proxy war with Russia through Ukraine. You will come out smelling like a rose - if you just walk away!&rdquo;
At the moment, that seems to be how events are shaping up: Treasury Secretary Bessent said yesterday the minerals deal is no longer on the table.
In addition, The Washington Post reports that Trump is now thinking about cutting off all U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine.
&ldquo;I don&rsquo;t know if we can ever do business with Zelenskyy again,&rdquo; says Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) &mdash; who&rsquo;s visited Ukraine nine times since the war began three years ago.
Matt Taibbi: &ldquo;Trump now can&rsquo;t remain committed to Ukraine even as a threatened option in negotiations, since Zelenskyy just arranged it so that Trump will look like he surrendered to his suitless &lsquo;ally&rsquo; if he does.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Still, the present moment is fraught with danger.
European leaders met over the weekend with Zelenskyy &ldquo;to forge a Ukraine peace plan to present to President Trump,&rdquo; as this morning&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal puts it.
At this stage it seems unlikely Trump would bite on anything they come up with. (Which is one reason why shares of European defense stocks like Germany&rsquo;s Rheinmetall and Italy&rsquo;s Leonardo leaped as much as 15% today.)
But there&rsquo;s always the risk of a provocation &mdash; some sort of &ldquo;incident&rdquo; that would trap Trump and pull him back into the morass.
Even if Zelenskyy is finished, &ldquo;I doubt those who have long lusted for Russian blood are quite ready to concede defeat,&rdquo; tweets the military analyst William Schryver. &ldquo;So we are now at a dangerous crossroads. If there is a last desperate play left to make, it will come soon.&rdquo;
&ldquo;This is a five-alarm fire,&rdquo; adds the military affairs podcaster Bill Buppert. &ldquo;NATO is trying to go kinetic against an armed nuclear power for no satisfactory reason that improves the national security posture of America.&rdquo;
Addressing Trump, Buppert writes, &ldquo;It is time to start the emergency Time Phased Force Deployment Data (TPFDD) process to return all American troops and their dependents home from Europe starting with the U.K.&hellip; Whatever equipment that can&rsquo;t be returned, destroy it in place.&rdquo;
As we did last week, we give the last word to Paradigm&rsquo;s macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards. As he put it earlier in February, &ldquo;Trump can&rsquo;t afford to become consumed by Ukraine if he wants to achieve the rest of his agenda on trade, immigration and real growth.&rdquo;
[Editor&rsquo;s note: What do you think? Do you think Trump and Vance laid a trap? Or did Zelenskyy sabotage himself? And do you worry about the near future? Write here: <a href="mailto:feedback@paradigmpressroom.com">feedback@paradigmpressroom.com</a>]
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Crypto Pop-and-Drop
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The big market story today is crypto &mdash; which shot higher yesterday on the heels of a Trump announcement&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1vPof51f3FSnaT9LVmF4dB/241e9e1412ead0e33df149fb96bacb60/trump-tweet.png" alt="trumpt tweet" width="540px" />
Someone must have reminded him he overlooked something important and so he then added: &ldquo;And, obviously, BTC and ETH, as other valuable Cryptocurrencies, will be at the heart of the Reserve. I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!&rdquo;
Bitcoin leaped from about $85,000 to over $92,000 almost instantly. Many other cryptos followed suit.
Now the buzz is wearing off, Bitcoin at $90,465 &mdash; basically back to last Tuesday&rsquo;s levels.
Bloomberg ventures the reserve concept &ldquo;was greeted with skepticism in the industry, with investors questioning the project&rsquo;s merits.&rdquo;
Well, yes. We said as much in the form of a meme last summer after Trump talked up the reserve idea at the big Bitcoin conference in Nashville&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/HPinokeqRaIT63lBK69eH/7bdd07734bd0436258ed6c1045aa7383/GlockeTweet.png" alt="Glocke Tweet" width="540px" />
Perhaps we&rsquo;ll get some more detail, real meat on the bones, when White House crypto and AI czar David Sacks convenes an industry summit on Friday.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As for more traditional asset classes, stocks are a mixed bag to open the new week after getting roughed up last week.
At last check the Dow is slightly in the green and the Nasdaq is slightly in the red. The S&amp;P 500 is almost pancake-flat at 5,955 and down about 3% from its record close on Feb. 19.
&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve got a new price target of 5,535. That&rsquo;s only a 7% drop,&rdquo; writes Rude Awakening editor Sean Ring <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/macr-gentlemen-preferred-bonds">in his chart-a-palooza</a> that he publishes on the first business day of each month.
&ldquo;If you&rsquo;re an optimist, it&rsquo;s a nice breather. If not, it&rsquo;s the beginning of something more sinister.&rdquo;
Gold is trying to pick itself up off the floor after last week&rsquo;s pummeling &mdash; up $27 as we write to $2,884. Silver&rsquo;s up 61 cents to $31.72.
Crude, which ended last week below $70, has shed another 50 cents to $69.26.
The lone economic number of the day is the February ISM manufacturing index &mdash; in positive territory for a second-straight month, after 26 straight months of readings suggesting the U.S. factory sector was shrinking.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Bad Look
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Coincidentally or not, Trump&rsquo;s crypto reserve announcement gets a rather different Trump-crypto story out of the news cycle.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is dropping market-manipulation charges against Justin Sun, the man behind the Tron cryptocurrency among other crypto ventures.
To be precise, SEC lawyers asked a federal judge to put the case on hold: &ldquo;In this case,&rdquo; they said, &ldquo;the parties submit that it is in each of their interests to stay this matter while they consider a potential resolution and agree that no party or non-party would be prejudiced by a stay.&rdquo;
Sun happens to be a leading investor in World Liberty Financial &mdash; the crypto project backed by the Trump family. He&rsquo;s bought $75 million of World Liberty tokens.
Maybe there&rsquo;s nothing untoward about any of this. But it&rsquo;s an awful look only a few weeks on the heels of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/two-executive-orders-trump-must-sign-now?vid2=f7584bb8d0f8b4ef03ea4a2a79cb9ffebd5601637dfb4b221b21055bfe10aa56fb9565c7166c12ea93687031263ed97489aead8f437e4ddd1cfcbcd5e6a6bb06&amp;utm_campaign=FMF_Issue_01.22.25&amp;utm_source=Iterable&amp;itbl_templateId=16237808&amp;itbl_campaignId=12383495&amp;utm_medium=Email#4">the TRUMP and MELANIA </a><a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/two-executive-orders-trump-must-sign-now?vid2=f7584bb8d0f8b4ef03ea4a2a79cb9ffebd5601637dfb4b221b21055bfe10aa56fb9565c7166c12ea93687031263ed97489aead8f437e4ddd1cfcbcd5e6a6bb06&amp;utm_campaign=FMF_Issue_01.22.25&amp;utm_source=Iterable&amp;itbl_templateId=16237808&amp;itbl_campaignId=12383495&amp;utm_medium=Email#4">memecoins</a>.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3A10OLhvGzQYpgHN1cTMZI/ddb4d58636ab152c5fb5cf13f080c320/H.E.Tweet.png" alt="H.E Tweet" width="540px" />
We already called Sun&rsquo;s ethics into question last year &mdash; when he complained about the tone of a CoinDesk article discussing his $6.2 million purchase of an &ldquo;artwork&rdquo; featuring a banana duct-taped to a wall.
Because Tron is a major sponsor of CoinDesk&rsquo;s annual Consensus conference, it seems Sun leaned on management hard enough that CoinDesk nuked the article from its website and let go three top editors.
Anyway, the judge in the market-manipulation case agreed to put the case on pause. As the Gizmodo site sums up, &ldquo;Sun&rsquo;s legal troubles seem to be fading away.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />You Can&rsquo;t Ignore India
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;You can love India, or you can hate India. But you cannot ignore India.&rdquo;
Our own Jim Rickards heard that saying, or a variation on it, frequently during a two-week visit recently.
He marvels at India&rsquo;s growth since his first visit over 40 years ago. &ldquo;You cannot ignore India in any geopolitical analysis or portfolio allocation,&rdquo; he says.
&ldquo;I spent time with locals in Dharavi, sometimes called the world&rsquo;s largest slum although Indians take offense at the word slum,&rdquo; says Jim. Dharavi packs 1 million people into about one square mile of Mumbai.
&ldquo;The dirt, lack of sanitation and unsafe working conditions in Dharavi were undeniable,&rdquo; he allows. &ldquo;Still, what impressed me most was the sheer energy of the place. Thousands of small businesses, including many manufacturing operations, were thriving. They were all hole-in-the-wall arrangements. Labor costs were minimal, regulation almost nonexistent and many appeared unsafe with open fires, exposed machinery and dark working conditions.
&ldquo;Remarkably, it is estimated that annual revenues from the businesses in Dharavi exceed $1 billion.&rdquo;

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3SvPxYJUmBbFGLJ5J0WWYn/299ce1d40df98dc263af2aded95dc328/cardboard.png" alt="cardboard" width="350px" />

A cardboard recycling business in the heart of Dharavi [Jim Rickards photo]
Jim says India is best thought of as a country with 1.1 billion impoverished people and 300 million more leading a comfortable life.
Note that 300 million number. &ldquo;A U.S.-sized middle-class population already exists in India,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;with 1.1 billion more people waiting to join the ranks. The growth potential is almost beyond comprehension.
&ldquo;The key to unlocking that growth potential rests with public policy,&rdquo; Jim adds. Clearing up land titles for the poorest residents will help. &ldquo;Beyond that, India needs to keep its big-brain technical workers at home instead of watching them head off to the U.S., Australia and Canada.&rdquo;
Jim believes Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already made strides in those areas over the last decade &mdash; and he says it&rsquo;s no accident that Modi was among the first foreign leaders to visit Donald Trump at the White House.
&ldquo;Modi&rsquo;s pragmatic relationship with Trump and India&rsquo;s enormous growth potential now being unlocked make India the go-to destination for foreign direct investment for the foreseeable future.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> We wrap up today with an entry from the meme-o-sphere that neatly joins the end of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/sunspots-and-markets">Friday&rsquo;s edition</a> with the start of today&rsquo;s&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/m5SbiGoRKMiDk0jjt3lzT/e465dc3f8966afe92de6f5be7cb92d01/trump-meme.png" alt="trump meme" width="540px" />
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

dap-ukraine-president-zelenskyy-540

Yes, you read the subject line of today’s edition right: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy just pulled Donald Trump’s chestnuts out of the fire.

Zelenskyy Just Rescued Trump

shutterstock 250528144

For decades, there’s been a niche of analysts who see a link between sunspots and events in the economy and markets.

Sunspots and Markets

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Gold Hype Is Getting out of Hand
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />No one takes a back seat to our Jim Rickards as an advocate for gold in anyone&rsquo;s investment portfolio&hellip; but even he says the current hype &ldquo;has run far ahead of the reality.&rdquo;
Maybe the hype is already wearing off if the spot price of the Midas metal is any indication. After spending most of the last three weeks over $2,900 an ounce, it&rsquo;s down another $43 this morning to $2,873.
For starters, Jim says the impending &ldquo;audit&rdquo; of the U.S. government&rsquo;s gold at Fort Knox, Kentucky is likely less than it&rsquo;s cracked up to be &mdash; even if Donald Trump and Elon Musk show up in person.
&ldquo;I&rsquo;m certain that visit will be the mother of all photo-ops,&rdquo; he says.
&ldquo;Of course, Trump and Musk will not be conducting a real audit in the financial sense. They&rsquo;ll just look around and show that the gold is actually there. This should lay to rest the rumors and ill-founded theories that the gold is somehow missing or has been shipped to JPMorgan. It hasn&rsquo;t been.&rdquo;
If nothing else, the flurry of interest in recent days has been good for a chuckle or two&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1OukbcmGfvFLbKfKSaXzl8/6910e3a86cd204e269529f4a61afd728/Xhabib.png" alt="Xhabib" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Then there&rsquo;s the matter of the U.S. government &ldquo;revaluing&rdquo; the gold on its books.
As we&rsquo;ve mentioned a couple of times this month, the Treasury&rsquo;s gold stash is still valued officially at a mere $42.22 an ounce &mdash; a relic of the chaos that ensued when President Nixon cut the dollar&rsquo;s last tie to gold in 1971.
&ldquo;The U.S. has 8,133 metric tonnes of gold bullion in three locations &mdash; Fort Knox, West Point and the Denver Mint,&rdquo; says Jim. &ldquo;That gold has a current market value of $771 billion.&rdquo;
What difference does that make?
&ldquo;The Federal Reserve currently holds a gold certificate issued by the U.S. Treasury in 1934 in compensation for the transfer of gold bullion from the Fed to the Treasury on orders of Franklin Roosevelt,&rdquo; Jim explains. &ldquo;That certificate is valued on the Fed&rsquo;s books at $42.22 per ounce.
&ldquo;If the Treasury ordered the Fed to write up the value to market, that would add $760 billion to the Treasury&rsquo;s general account, which could be used to finance the U.S. government without adding new debt.&rdquo;
Which is fine as far as it goes. The problem is that this revaluation is only a one-shot deal. It doesn&rsquo;t generate a recurring revenue stream for Uncle Sam.
&ldquo;In principle,&rdquo; says Jim, &ldquo;you could repeat the process if gold went higher in the future but that's uncertain and not completely reliable like taxes, leases and tariffs.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> To address that lack of a recurring revenue stream, online rumor-mongers say the Trump administration is this close to adopting one or more Rube Goldberg schemes that Jim says are &ldquo;nonsense.&rdquo;
Jim summarizes the rumors like this: &ldquo;The U.S. could sell gold and use the proceeds to buy foreign government bonds that ostensibly produce higher yields than U.S. Treasuries. An alternative is to issue Treasury bonds backed by gold that would (in theory) carry a zero interest rate because they are &lsquo;inflation proof.&rsquo; This creates an arbitrage between higher-yielding foreign government debt and supposedly zero-interest U.S. Treasury debt that produces income for the Treasury.&rdquo;
Jim says there are several problems with these schemes&hellip;
<ul>
<li>The government already has inflation-adjusted Treasuries. Maybe you&rsquo;ve heard of them &mdash; TIPS or Treasury inflation-protected securities. &ldquo;An inflation-proof gold-backed bond is therefore redundant&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>While gold helps preserve your purchasing power over time, the gold price isn&rsquo;t closely correlated with the inflation rate. &ldquo;In the past 2&frac12; years, gold has gone up 80% and cumulative inflation has been around 10%,&rdquo; says Jim. Under those circumstances, &ldquo;indexing Treasury bonds to gold prices would have resulted in windfalls for investors and a huge loss for the Treasury&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Finally, what&rsquo;s the point of monetizing a gold reserve and using the proceeds to buy foreign government bonds? &ldquo;The Fed could just buy them with printed money and the Treasury could just buy them with borrowed money.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
Jim&rsquo;s bottom line: &ldquo;I recommend gold as an investment asset and own it myself.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s just not the case that the Treasury has to mess around in gold, bond and currency markets to achieve some opaque goal that can be achieved directly just by leaving the gold in Fort Knox and issuing TIPS.&rdquo;
There you go. Sorry if we took you into the weeds today, but we&rsquo;ve had inquiries from readers eager to hear Jim&rsquo;s take on gold revaluation &mdash; and we&rsquo;re happy to provide a needed corrective to the online hype.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Crosscurrents
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s a day of many crosscurrents affecting markets &mdash; tariffs, economic numbers and of course Nvidia&rsquo;s earnings.
After we hit &ldquo;send&rdquo; on yesterday&rsquo;s edition, the stock market&rsquo;s morning gains evaporated. And while too often the financial media reach for &ldquo;reasons&rdquo; behind every jot and tittle in the indexes&hellip; it&rsquo;s clear in this instance that the decline began moments after Donald Trump began musing to reporters about a 25% tariff on imports from Europe.
That was just chatter, though. This morning Trump confirmed he&rsquo;s going through with plans for 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, effective next Tuesday. In addition, he&rsquo;s slapping another 10% tariff on Chinese imports &mdash; on top of the 10% tariff imposed earlier this month.

[Editor&rsquo;s note: This development affirms Jim Rickards&rsquo; forecast that Trump is just getting started with a new trade war.
If you knew how to play it just right, the trade war during Trump&rsquo;s first term could have handed you a 1,372% return in only eight weeks.
This time, Jim says the stakes are even higher &mdash; <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2416695">as he explains in this urgent message from Pentagon City</a>.]

By and large, Mr. Market is taking this new development in stride: At last check the Dow is up nearly 1% while the Nasdaq is down less than a half percent. The S&amp;P is splitting the difference &mdash; up a smidge to 5,962, squarely in the middle of its trading range going back to Election Day.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> We touched on gold&rsquo;s swoon earlier. Silver&rsquo;s also getting smacked &mdash; down 46 cents to $31.40. The HUI index of mining stocks sits at 314, a four-week low.
But crude is perking up after the Energy Department released its weekly inventory numbers. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate is up a little over 2%, back above $70.
Crypto continues sucking wind &mdash; Bitcoin barely over $85,000, another low last seen the week after Election Day.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The day&rsquo;s economic numbers are a mixed bag &mdash; challenging conventional wisdom about an impending slowdown in the economy.
To be sure, first-time unemployment claims in the week gone by jumped to 242,000, the highest reading since mid-December.
CNN was quick to say the number suggests &ldquo;that cracks may be forming in America&rsquo;s long-solid labor market&rdquo; &mdash; but one week rarely tells the whole story. The four-week average is still tame compared with much of last summer and fall.
Elsewhere, orders for durable goods &mdash; anything built to last three years or longer &mdash; surprised big to the upside &mdash; rising 3.1% from December to January.
And that number wasn&rsquo;t skewed too much by orders for aircraft and military hardware &mdash; which are notoriously noisy from month to month. If you exclude those two categories, orders for &ldquo;core capital goods&rdquo; jumped a firm 0.8%, way beyond the expectations of Wall Street economists for a 0.5% rise.
As for NVDA&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" /> What Now, NVDA?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The reaction to Nvidia&rsquo;s numbers is disappointment. Not extreme disappointment, but disappointment nonetheless.
At last check Nvidia is down 3.5% on the day. The headline figures were splendid &mdash; sales leaped 78% year over year &mdash; but profit margins are getting squeezed by high costs.
CEO Jensen Huang said all the right things about the arrival of the upstart Chinese AI engine DeepSeek: Contrary to initial impressions, DeepSeek has &ldquo;ignited global enthusiasm&rdquo; that will result in more demand for computing resources that his company will be delighted to meet.
Perhaps the one thing that went *clank* during the conference call was the answer to a question about the potential impact of Trump tariffs: Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress gave a tepid reply about how the firm will comply with all export controls and tariffs &mdash; rather than a firm promise to raise prices to offset the tariffs.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />So what does it mean for NVDA during the remaining 10 months of 2025?
In our sister e-letter Truth &amp; Trends, Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta points out that Nvidia&rsquo;s share price has been flat since last June.
Yes, there&rsquo;s been a lot of volatility along the way &mdash; in fact, NVDA lost $980 billion in market cap during January, very nearly fulfilling Enrique&rsquo;s forecast of a $1 trillion drop sometime this year.
But all told, it&rsquo;s a very normal period of &ldquo;consolidation&rdquo; after a furious run-up starting in early 2023. Some investors are taking profits; others are moving in to take their place.
Looking ahead, &ldquo;If the company can continue to meet and beat numbers, then I think the stock will be just fine,&rdquo; Enrique writes. &ldquo;At some point, the stock price will start grinding higher again to reflect the accrued earnings. It is unlikely to go up as much as before because the company is neither beating numbers by as much nor growing as much.&rdquo;
Longer term, Enrique remains concerned that Silicon Valley&rsquo;s massive buildout in AI hardware has gotten ahead of itself &mdash; and the industry will shift its focus to software. Should that happen, &ldquo;you will see a reduction in spending on NVDA chips.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Mailbag: Chinese Stocks
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As promised yesterday, we&rsquo;re opening a voluminous mailbag of replies to this question: &ldquo;Would you consider investing in Chinese stocks despite the prevailing negative sentiment, or do you believe the risks outweigh the potential rewards?&rdquo;
One reader examines the question strictly from a risk-reward viewpoint and concludes: &ldquo;There are too many major issues still looming over China's economy to even consider investing in China stocks and business.&rdquo;
The bulk of the replies, however, wrestled with a moral component&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Why would you support our adversaries by investing in their stocks?&rdquo; writes a reader.
&ldquo;Does the lure of possible profits justify aiding and abetting our enemies? Shame on you for even suggesting that.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Absolutely not!&rdquo; says another. &ldquo;China, the CCP, is deceitful, underhanded and ideological in their commitment to destroy and take over America by any means.
&ldquo;Given their requirements and demands on Chinese companies, any support of a Chinese company is aiding and abetting the enemy, either presently or eventually. It&rsquo;s not a maybe, it&rsquo;s a given.
&ldquo;I will not knowingly be a party (or an investor) to any company, organization or entity that is affiliated with China or beholden to the CCP &mdash; willingly or unwittingly.
&ldquo;The modest amount of money that I could make from such investments pales in comparison to my loyalty and love of this country.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />On the flip side, &ldquo;I have enjoyed the profits from the investments that we have made in Alibaba (BABA),&rdquo; a reader writes &mdash; &ldquo;so I don&rsquo;t have any problem profiting from any stock no matter what country it&rsquo;s coming from.&rdquo;
(Perhaps that reader belongs to Zach Scheidt&rsquo;s Income Alliance, which has booked a couple of gains on BABA this month.)
Says another: &ldquo;While not a MAGA, my personal views tend to lean more toward the Republican philosophies &mdash; I have no problem investing in Chinese stocks.
&ldquo;I'm not convinced that everything that is needed or wanted can or should be created, manufactured and consumed in the U.S.
&ldquo;My viewpoint when investing (minor investing as it may be) is to make money. Sometimes that means investing in things that I don't agree with, if those are the things that are making money at the moment.
&ldquo;Why would I want to miss out on making my portfolio better, just to make a point that I don't agree with their viewpoint?&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Chinese Stocks: The View From Here
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />This question is not new to your editor. In fact, I&rsquo;ve been wrestling with it since at least 2021.
In the gone-but-not-forgotten trading service I ran with Alan Knuckman, The Profit Wire, we got grief now and then for recommending call options on the U.S.-traded shares of Chinese companies.
The problem I pointed out is that if you start screening recommendations for one ethical objection &mdash; like China &mdash; you have to start screening for others. By the end of the process, there might be nothing to invest in at all!
Over time, we generated 100% gains on a scandal-scarred bank (Wells Fargo)... a miner with a checkered environmental record (Freeport-McMoRan)... and a maker of the COVID shots (Pfizer).
&ldquo;With almost every recommendation,&rdquo; I wrote in late 2021, &ldquo;someone could object to something and accuse us of enabling villainous activity.&rdquo;
And so we chose not to screen for such things &mdash; following the research and the data wherever they led us.
Now and then over the years, I&rsquo;ve cited the words of the late Harry Browne, a pioneer of the investment newsletter biz.
&ldquo;Maximizing profits and conforming to social policies are separate endeavors,&rdquo; Browne wrote in 1995. &ldquo;You can cater to one endeavor only at the expense of the other.
&ldquo;The stock exchange isn&rsquo;t a pulpit. If you want to promote a particular environmental policy, political philosophy or other personal enthusiasm, do it with the profits you make from hardheaded investing."
And if Browne&rsquo;s words don&rsquo;t ring true for you&hellip; and if a particular newsletter or trading service recommends something you find objectionable&hellip; well, there&rsquo;s always a new recommendation coming next week or next month.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

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