<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Flying Cars (Sooner Than You Think)
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> For the better part of 15 years, it&rsquo;s been the most damning indictment of the digital age: &ldquo;We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.&rdquo;
So read the subtitle of a 2011 report from Founders Fund &mdash; a venture capital firm co-founded by Peter Thiel.
(Recall this was a time when X was still called Twitter and tweets were limited to 140 characters.)
The report&rsquo;s thesis? Computers were getting faster, cheaper, better. But in the realm of &ldquo;real stuff,&rdquo; human progress was nearing a standstill.
As Thiel summed it up to an audience at Stanford University in 2012, &ldquo;Whether we look at transportation, energy, commodity production, food production, agro-tech, nanotechnology &mdash; that with the exception of computers, we&rsquo;ve had tremendous slowdown&hellip;
&ldquo;I believe we are in a world where innovation in stuff was outlawed. It was basically outlawed in the last 40 years &mdash; part of it was environmentalism, part of it was risk aversion. And all the engineering disciplines that had to do with stuff have basically been outlawed one by one.&rdquo;
Thiel was not alone in the early 2010s&hellip;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;I&rsquo;m not denying that the changes in digital IT over the last three decades have been breathtaking,&rdquo; wrote the demographer Neil Howe, also in 2012. &ldquo;They have been.&rdquo;
But progress otherwise during his boomer lifetime, he suggested, was much slower than during the life of, say, Dwight Eisenhower, born in 1890.
&ldquo;When he was a child... you needed to know Morse code to communicate faster than a horse could run, and (in fact) horses were the only mode of ordinary street transport. Children routinely died from bacterial infections. And Lord Kelvin, one of the greatest scientists of that age, declared that &lsquo;aeronautical travel&rsquo; was impossible.&rdquo;
By the time Ike was president in the late &rsquo;50s, &ldquo;he was inside in a Boeing 707... dictating memos on the deployment of hydrogen bombs, sugar-cube vaccines for polio and plans to put a &lsquo;man on the moon&rsquo; while flying at 35,000 feet over a nation whose vast, affluent, homeowning, car-driving, union card-holding middle class would have been utterly inconceivable in the presidency of William McKinley.
&ldquo;Meanwhile I get up every morning and drive basically the same silly internal-combustion car that people drove 50 years ago through the same suburbs on the same interstates to the same buildings powered by the same nuclear plants and hydroelectric dams that Eisenhower&rsquo;s peers saw fit to build.&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> That was then. This is now. People privy to Thiel&rsquo;s thinking say he&rsquo;s changed his tune. 
As recently as last summer, Thiel gave an interview to The New York Times in which he continued to lament the lack of progress outside the digital realm.
But during a recent edition of the Provoked podcast, co-host Darryl Cooper said he attended a private talk given by Thiel. Apparently Thiel now believes AI has the potential to bring about a transformation in all the realms where there&rsquo;s been middling progress for the last 50 years &mdash; energy, transportation, agriculture&hellip;
Cooper did not specify what brought about Thiel&rsquo;s change of heart. A couple of different web searches on your editor&rsquo;s part come up dry. Whatever Thiel is saying, he&rsquo;s saying to a limited audience.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> But perhaps what he&rsquo;s saying is along the lines of what Paradigm&rsquo;s top editors were saying during our All-In Summit held last Thursday.
To recap, it was all about &ldquo;aAI&rdquo; &mdash; or autonomous AI.
Jim Rickards, James Altucher, Enrique Abeyta&hellip; They all see AI melding with advanced robotics and a revived U.S. manufacturing base. The sort of combination that could bring about flying cars sooner than you think.
And to be clear, this convergence is not something they see coming in the 2030s. They see three catalysts building here in the first quarter of 2026&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Donald Trump is set to sign an executive order accelerating the development of aAI. Target date: Any day now</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Elon Musk is preparing a one-of-a-kind aAI product rollout &mdash; an autonomous robot called Optimus that will re-shape every industry you can think of. Target date: No later than March 30</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, is set to unveil the company&rsquo;s newest superchip that will power aAI &mdash; and he&rsquo;ll name the tiny software company Nvidia is partnering with to make it all happen: Target date: Nvidia&rsquo;s annual GTC event, also known as the &ldquo;Super Bowl of AI,&rdquo; on March 16.</li>
</ul>
If you&rsquo;re a Paradigm Mastermind Group member, you&rsquo;re already hip to the changes that are coming and how to profit. Still, you won&rsquo;t want to miss a follow-up live session featuring the Mastermind team tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. EST. At that time they&rsquo;ll walk you through all the special reports they issued last week and even take your questions. Watch your inbox for a link.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Chop on the Surface, Calm Underneath
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Beneath the choppy action in the major U.S. stock indexes, a different picture emerges.
&ldquo;We are witnessing a clear rotation out of the highflying mega-cap tech names and into a much broader area of the market,&rdquo; says Paradigm analyst Zach Scheidt &mdash; who works on several publications including Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha and Rickards&rsquo; Insider Intel.
&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve seen stocks like the Mag 7 absolutely tear higher over the past several months. It makes sense that these names need a break. And the fact that capital is rotating rather than disappearing means that the overall bull trend is still intact.
&ldquo;If anything, the market is becoming healthier as participation expands. As noted in the recent research from Bespoke regarding market broadening, the rally is no longer relying on just a handful of names to do the heavy lifting.&rdquo;
Consider the following stats:
<ul>
<li>57% of S&amp;P 500 stocks are currently outperforming the broad market index</li>
<li>4 of the S&amp;P sectors closed at 52-week highs at the end of January</li>
<li>91 stocks are already up 10% or more year-to-date.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;While the Mag 7 names take a breather, small-cap stocks are holding up remarkably well,&rdquo; Zach continues. &ldquo;The Russell 2000 (IWM) remains firmly above its 50-day moving average, signaling that risk appetite isn&rsquo;t vanishing, it&rsquo;s simply moving to other areas of the market that haven&rsquo;t gotten the same excitement as the Mags.&rdquo;
In addition, Zach concurs with trading pro Enrique Abeyta&rsquo;s remarks here last week: The software stocks are deeply oversold after last week&rsquo;s bloodbath and liable to bounce big.
➢ Congratulations are in order for Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha readers, where Zach and James Altucher recommended an up-and-coming tech name on Jan. 6. Today they urged readers to sell for 220% gains.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> In the meantime, Friday&rsquo;s bounce in the major indexes is extending into a new week.
At last check the S&amp;P 500 is up nearly two-thirds of a percent and less than 25 points away from 7,000. The Nasdaq is up nearly 1.2%. The Dow, which breached the 50,000 level for the first time on Friday, is also in the green today &mdash; but just barely.
Gold has roared over $100 higher to $5,074. Silver is up a blistering 7.2% to $83.25. Bitcoin has recovered the $70,000 mark and Ethereum is approaching $2,100.
Two big economic numbers are coming later this week &mdash; the January jobs report on Wednesday (delayed a few days by the latest &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; and the official inflation rate Friday.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The oil price is drifting higher even though a U.S. attack on Iran did not transpire over the weekend.
When we left you on Friday, traders were once again positioning themselves for that possibility &mdash; bidding crude up in the event of a weekend attack when markets were closed.
Ordinarily we&rsquo;d see a pullback as a new week begins. Instead, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate is up over three-quarters of a percent, back over $64.
Perhaps that&rsquo;s because of something that did transpire over the weekend &mdash; an announcement that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will pay a call on the White House Wednesday.
For the record, this will be the seventh time he&rsquo;s visited Trump in the United States since Trump&rsquo;s return to office just over a year ago.
His demands are already clear: In a statement, Netanyahu&rsquo;s office said any U.S. negotiations with Iran &ldquo;must include limitations on ballistic missiles and a halting of the support for the Iranian axis.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s a nonstarter for Tehran: &ldquo;Missiles are never negotiable because they are a defense issue,&rdquo; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Saturday.
SpaceX IPO Plans
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />SpaceX IPO Plans
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The SpaceX IPO is still on track for late spring or early summer after Elon Musk&rsquo;s announcement that SpaceX is acquiring xAI.
Musk made it official a week ago today &mdash; although users of the Paradigm Press mobile app got the scoop days earlier from our Ray Blanco, in attendance at the SpaceCom event in Orlando.
As we mentioned last week, combining the company will make it easier for Musk to pursue his goal of orbiting data centers &mdash; using 24/7 solar power that doesn&rsquo;t compete with homeowners and businesses for scarce electricity back on Earth.
&ldquo;xAI was burning about $1 billion per month,&rdquo; Ray tells us. &ldquo;They need SpaceX for orbital infrastructure. SpaceX needs guaranteed launch revenue. Space data centers solve both problems.
&ldquo;There will be other players doing the exact same thing &mdash; moving compute to space, with Google and Amazon as potential competitors from within the U.S.&rdquo;
As for the timing of the merger &mdash; the combined firm could be valued at $1.25 trillion &mdash; Ray says one possibility is June 8-9, which marks the conjunction of Jupiter and Venus.
&ldquo;It might sound like a weird reason to pick a date,&rdquo; Ray allows, &ldquo;but this is classic Elon Musk style. Remember in 2018 when he tweeted about taking Tesla private at $420 per share (a classic cannabis reference)?
&ldquo;Since SpaceX is a space company, Elon might like a date that occurs during a rare planetary alignment.
&ldquo;Another option is that Elon does it as a birthday gift to himself, on June 28 (Musk's 55th birthday). Either way, the IPO could raise up to $50 billion, which would smash Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record IPO raise.&rdquo;
In the pages of Altucher&rsquo;s Investment Network, Ray and James Altucher have pinpointed several ways to profit from SpaceX&rsquo;s IPO before it ever happens.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Bread and Circuses
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The latest Jeffrey Epstein revelations opened an ugly window into what the power elite really thinks of the plebes.
It has to do with the already-disgraced Jes Staley &mdash; a 34-year veteran of JPMorgan Chase who moved on to become CEO of Barclays in 2015. He resigned in 2021 amid ongoing disclosures about his cozy relationship with Epstein.
The most recent Epstein document dump includes a jaw-dropping email Staley sent to Epstein ahead of the 2014 Super Bowl.
The context is that a few days earlier, protesters fought with military police in Brazil&rsquo;s most populous city, Sao Paolo. They were upset with the government&rsquo;s lavish spending on stadiums to host the 2014 World Cup.
Aside from that, the three-sentence email speaks for itself.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2BlxIIci5CwPpYTrurQGms/f7bf7abe89b7b388a2be41c3819356e0/FMF-Issue-02-09-26_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Brings to mind the late George Carlin&rsquo;s rant about how &ldquo;It&rsquo;s a big club, and you ain&rsquo;t in it.&rdquo;
And in light of how last night&rsquo;s Super Bowl halftime show became another touchstone in the culture wars, this part of his routine seems especially relevant&hellip;
<blockquote>That&rsquo;s all you ever hear about in this country is our differences. That&rsquo;s all the media and the politicians are ever talking about: the things that separate us, things that make us different from one another.</blockquote>
<blockquote>That&rsquo;s the way the ruling class operates in any society: They try to divide the rest of the people; they keep the lower and the middle classes fighting with each other so that they, the rich, can run off with all the ****ing money.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Fairly simple thing&hellip; happens to work.</blockquote>
And he said that in 1992!
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Silver, MAMA Stocks
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> A new week&rsquo;s mailbag begins with a one-sentence inquiry&hellip;
&ldquo;Do you believe confidence exists that silver can go higher than its recent high price and above in the near term of six months?&rdquo;
Of course confidence exists. The question is among whom?
In all seriousness, many smart observers of the precious metals space, both inside and outside Paradigm, believe silver could easily reach $150 by year-end &mdash; certainly next year.
Six months is a tighter timeframe, though. We&rsquo;re talking Aug. 9. Expecting silver to reclaim $121 by that time? It&rsquo;s certainly possible, but I wouldn&rsquo;t want to bet on it.
But I&rsquo;m nonetheless hanging on to my Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). I&rsquo;m playing for the long haul and I&rsquo;m willing to exercise patience. But that&rsquo;s just me. If you&rsquo;re sitting on hefty silver profits even after the recent whacking and you need to meet current expenses&hellip; you might well come to a different conclusion.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> After last week&rsquo;s mention of how our label of the &ldquo;MAMA&rdquo; stocks never got traction last year &mdash; Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon &mdash; a reader weighed in&hellip;
&ldquo;Since your MAMA acronym didn&rsquo;t catch on, how about adding a couple of hyperscaler-related companies, Nvidia and Oracle, and going with the Al Bundy-inspired acronym of NO MA&rsquo;AM?&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4TYtcpDTUzbyvqv90kD1h0/490135b2ebddc9f352d247c302e3a7f5/FMF-Issue-02-09-26_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Dave responds: And I thought my mind went off on weird tangents!

FMF-Issue-02-09-26(Featured).png

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Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Flying Cars (Sooner Than You Think)

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />39 Days Before NVDA Tips Its Hand
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> I&rsquo;m still shaking my head over what happened yesterday during the Paradigm All-In Summit featuring Jim Rickards, James Altucher and Enrique Abeyta.
There they were &mdash; our three most high-profile gurus, guys who frequently disagree about the direction of the market, the direction of the economy, even what to have for lunch.
But they were &ldquo;all in&rdquo; on a single big theme.
And I do mean big &mdash; the imminent convergence of AI, advanced robotics and the revival of U.S. manufacturing. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s going to be the biggest transformation to America&rsquo;s economy in 50 years,&rdquo; said Jim.
They were also all-in on a tiny software company partnering with Nvidia to make it all happen.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> But at the same moment 20,000 of your fellow readers were being clued in to this transformational wonder, mainstream financial media were zeroed in on near-term noise&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/I1WxzhmfmW7AbZEwFydMh/cd8167fe42417909797a4e420f07e9af/FMF-Issue-02-06-26_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
&ldquo;Big Tech stocks have sold off heavily,&rdquo; said the Financial Times, &ldquo;after the companies unveiled plans to spend $660 billion this year on AI, as investors fret that the &lsquo;breathtaking&rsquo; capital expenditures are outpacing the earnings potential of the new technology.
&ldquo;Amazon, Google and Microsoft are set to lose a combined $900 billion in market value since filing their quarterly earnings over the past week.&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Perspective, please: The Nasdaq Composite is down a not-so-whopping 6% from its late-October peak. If it were at all-time highs, no one in the media would be carping about an &ldquo;AI bubble.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Look, I know a thing or two about bubbles,&rdquo; Enrique said during the summit yesterday. &ldquo;I was managing money when the dot-com bubble burst. I shorted it on the way down and made lots of money for my clients.
&ldquo;What we&rsquo;re seeing today in AI is not how bubbles peak.&rdquo;
Which brings us to an eye-opening chart Enrique shared during the event. We&rsquo;ve shown it in the past here in 5 Bullets as well &mdash; comparing the Nasdaq Composite&rsquo;s performance during the dot-com boom and the current AI-fueled boom.
It sets the starting point of the dot-com boom with the launch of the Netscape web browser in December 1994. And it sets the start of the current boom with the launch of ChatGPT 3.5 in November 2022&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7daUPtoIFlTu0CB2hpFtcM/55c9fe163550c965fda75f004275b7f9/FMF-Issue-02-06-26_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
In both cases, we&rsquo;re looking at a gain of over 100% in a little over three years.
&ldquo;Notice how much this bull run compares to the one 30 years ago,&rdquo; said Enrique. &ldquo;Imagine if this same situation plays out over the next handful of years.&rdquo;
If AI were nothing more than chatbots like ChatGPT, then yes &mdash; AI would be due for a hard reset.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> But as our trio of experts took pains to point out yesterday, AI is about much more than chatbots.
&ldquo;We&rsquo;re really talking about the next wave of AI &mdash; and that&rsquo;s robotics and automation,&rdquo; said James Altucher.
Call it &ldquo;aAI&rdquo; or autonomous AI.
To some extent, aAI already happening. Here&rsquo;s a startling stat we learned during the All-In Summit: A decade ago, the typical Amazon worker handled about 175 packages. Last year, the total was 3,870. That&rsquo;s AI solving real-world practical problems.
But with a new aAI effort called Project Trinity, those leaps in productivity are coming to every industry &mdash; again, AI melding with automation melding with a revival of the U.S. factory sector.
And our experts all agree it&rsquo;s got the backing of three powerful forces&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Donald Trump, set to sign an executive order any day now</li>
<li>Elon Musk, set to roll out his Optimus autonomous robots by the end of this quarter</li>
<li>Jensen Huang, the Nvidia CEO, set to unveil the company&rsquo;s newest superchip that will power aAI on March 16.</li>
</ul>
That&rsquo;s just 39 days from now. Oh, and Huang is also set to name the tiny software company Nvidia is partnering with to make it all possible.
So you have 39 days to position yourself for the biggest economic transformation in 50 years.
Profit potential, you ask? Perhaps 2,566% &mdash; unfolding in a matter of weeks.
If you&rsquo;re a Paradigm Mastermind Group member, you have full access to a suite of special reports released yesterday &mdash; naming this company and laying out a host of other lucrative aAI plays. <a href="https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/subscription/pmg/reports">Access here</a>.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />About the AI Spending Spree&hellip;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Life comes at you fast, doesn&rsquo;t it, Financial Times?
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5Y3KQqhnStHq95fAYZi8nl/1eaec8b3548e9269b3795cf9d2b5fe6d/FMF-Issue-02-06-26_3_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Amazon is down 8% today because its AI spending plans are more ambitious than Wall Street analysts are counting on. But the gloom is not extending to the tech sector as a whole, as the Nasdaq is up nearly 1.2% at last check.
The S&amp;P is up nearly 1.3% to 6,885 and the Dow has rallied 1.8%.
Actually, just about every asset class that took a beating this week is rallying into the weekend&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Gold is up 3.5% to $4,944</li>
<li>Silver is up 7.8% to $76.38</li>
<li>Bitcoin is back over $68,000</li>
<li>Ethereum is within sight of $2,000 again.</li>
</ul>
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Let&rsquo;s return to the AI spending spree before we move on&hellip;
Four of the &ldquo;Magnificent 7&rdquo; stocks are the hyperscalers pouring money into data centers (and the electricity to run them and the water to cool them).
A year ago we tried to label them the MAMA stocks &mdash; Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon &mdash; but it didn&rsquo;t catch on. All four of them have now reported their quarterly numbers. Looking at the reaction in each of their share prices, only Meta was rewarded by Wall Street for its spending plans. Hence the doomy headlines of the sort we mentioned in Bullet No. 1.
On the Paradigm Press mobile app, trading pro Enrique Abeyta posted the following yesterday&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/465iuyqqCn47XYecNKwT39/e64cc84d912ec1e4bdaea78ca2382607/FMF-Issue-02-06-26_4_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
He also pointed out a major difference between today&rsquo;s hyperscalers and the dot-com darlings of the late 1990s: The MAMA stocks generate profits hand-over-fist. The most buzzy dot-coms like Global Crossing and Level 3 had way more publicity than profits.
And even if the Street continues to punish the hyperscalers, all that money they&rsquo;re spending will flow toward companies like Nvidia, Broadcom and Credo.
Enrique&rsquo;s bottom line: &ldquo;This is NOT how the AI bubble bursts. We see a huge disconnect right now and would be buying aggressively.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />War Drums
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> For the second Friday in a row, traders are bidding up oil in the event of a U.S. attack on Iran while markets are closed for the weekend.
Checking our screens, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate is up 1.2% and back above $64.
As we&rsquo;ve mentioned more than once, there&rsquo;s been a pattern during both the Biden and Trump 47 administrations &mdash; big military action launched during the weekend, when U.S. markets are closed.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/morning-in-america-if-only">In one instance</a>, U.S. forces launched airstrikes against &ldquo;Iran-linked&rdquo; targets in Iraq and Syria as soon as the stock market closed on a Friday at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.
The idea is to short-circuit any instant market freakout. By the time trading reopens Monday morning, everyone&rsquo;s had a chance to catch their breath and they&rsquo;re less inclined to react with extreme buy or sell orders.
Today, &ldquo;indirect&rdquo; talks between American and Iranian envoys are underway in Oman. But any talks will go nowhere as long as Washington dictates terms that Tehran views as suicidal.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2N6oKWZ0UB4RII5ZXl2xAh/2cc9bf6833327c45403f894098edadf0/FMF-Issue-02-06-26_5_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;They should know that if they start a war this time, it will be a regional war,&rdquo; Iran&rsquo;s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said last Sunday.
&ldquo;Sounds bad, but you can&rsquo;t exactly blame Tehran for threatening to set the Middle East ablaze,&rdquo; writes Andrew Day at The American Conservative.
&ldquo;Trump has demonstrated a strong preference for military action to be quick and achieve specific objectives so he can avoid American casualties and long, chaotic wars. The Iranians know this, and their provocative rhetoric is meant to prevent another attack on their country, not to antagonize Washington.&rdquo;
Amid that backdrop, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s really the Israelis who want a strike,&rdquo; a U.S. official tells the Axios site. &ldquo;The president is just not there.&rdquo;
He&rsquo;s probably &ldquo;not there&rdquo; because of these poll numbers. Even Republican support for military intervention in Iran is barely 50%...
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1bFOAK5n71uqS299WMfrjI/e3ab921e043cd834d414a4ab87085565/FMF-Issue-02-06-26_6_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> On the one hand, it seems unlikely the Trump administration would order an attack on Super Bowl weekend, right?
On the other hand, the Winter Olympics open tonight &mdash; and Washington has a habit of instigating geopolitical trouble around the Olympics, as we&rsquo;ve chronicled previously&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Summer 2008: Shortly before the Games opened in Beijing, Washington&rsquo;s puppet leader in the former Soviet republic of Georgia invaded a rebel province, hoping to re-annex it. Georgian forces killed and wounded scores of Russian peacekeepers. As the games began, Russian tanks rolled into Georgia and quickly restored the status quo ante</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Winter 2014: As the Games were underway in Sochi, Russia, the Obama administration engineered a coup in Ukraine &mdash; ousting a democratically elected pro-Russian leader. From there, a low-grade civil war raged in Ukraine for eight years until&hellip;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Winter 2022: During the games in Beijing, the Biden administration blew off Moscow&rsquo;s demands that Ukraine never join NATO and that U.S. weapons systems targeting Russia never be deployed in Ukraine. Moscow launched its &ldquo;special military operation&rdquo; four days after the closing ceremonies.</li>
</ul>
Yes, all of those examples involved Russia. Then again, an extended U.S.-Iran conflict might well draw in Moscow (and Beijing) on the side of Tehran.
Russian and Chinese leaders might tolerate the toppling of Venezuela&rsquo;s strongman Maduro. In contrast, &ldquo;Russia and China simply cannot permit Iran to fall,&rdquo; writes the military analyst William Schryver.
For them, Iran possesses &ldquo;inherent geostrategic importance&rdquo; as well as &ldquo;strategic importance to the emergence of the multipolar world for which Russia and China are the vanguards and strongest components.&rdquo;
On that less-than-cheery thought, we move on&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Wow, and people call me cynical. Here&rsquo;s Ryan McMaken from the Mises Institute&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/CcMVdvL4BX3ZHUVYtL33l/3f5e319ed0ca050ea00111c2c394aa32/FMF-Issue-02-06-26_7_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Silver Smash
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;Thank you, Nick Riso, for the great article,&rdquo; a reader enthuses after we spotlighted our able colleague&rsquo;s deep dive into <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/how-the-machine-ate-itself">the meltdown in silver</a> a week ago today. &ldquo;It was both informative and educational!
&ldquo;One question: Is there not an ability to stop trading in a particular stock or the entire exchange similar to the financial markets? Should there be (you will always have events that can crush a market be they internal or external)?&rdquo;
Dave responds: Well, there are &ldquo;circuit breakers&rdquo; &mdash; a specific crash band for individual stocks. Typically it&rsquo;s a 10% or greater move in five minutes, although that can vary from one exchange to another.
&ldquo;But I can't say intelligently whether that's &lsquo;right&rsquo; or &lsquo;wrong,&rsquo; Nick tells us via email.
"It's a metaethical question there. Maybe it will be in the future with more automated trading, but maybe not. It's complicated.&rdquo;
You didn&rsquo;t get an easy answer, dear reader, but you got an honest one! As purveyors of investment recommendations we must deal with the world as it is, not as we might wish it to be.

FMF-Issue-02-06-26(Featured)

39 Days Before NVDA Tips Its Hand

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Beyond &ldquo;Critical Minerals&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> On the heels of announcing a critical-minerals stockpile Monday&hellip; the Trump administration is convening a critical-minerals summit today.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is joined by Vice President Vance and delegates from over 50 countries for an event called the Critical Minerals Ministerial.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7vbMoikcdmVrNR2zwD3Wx6/7da0fe66312e5b99ec9dafd6bee90565/FMF-Issue-020426_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Events like these are not where big decisions get made. They are where governments telegraph their intentions. As the State Department announcement puts it, &ldquo;This historic gathering will create momentum for collaboration to secure these critical components vital to technological innovation, economic strength and national security.&rdquo;
The meeting comes &ldquo;at a time when China has shown it can leverage its dominance in the field,&rdquo; adds the Financial Times &mdash; particularly in the realm of rare earth elements.
<blockquote>Rare earth minerals are used across a range of critical industries including autos, electronics, defense and energy. China dominates the refining and supply of the group of 17 metallic elements. The minerals consultancy Project Blue estimates that China currently controls 66% of the global mined supply and 88% of the refined materials.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Last year China exploited this dominance by imposing restrictions on the exports of some rare earths, raising trade tensions with the U.S. The Trump administration has since sought to support domestic suppliers, including by acquiring a stake in Nevada-based MP Materials, and diversify sources of certain metals to reduce dependency on China.</blockquote>
In China, the summit is the top business story on CGTN, the English-language state broadcaster. Note the &ldquo;cutline&rdquo; with the view from Beijing&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4NZhXF39iAbJ22RqZLQsRU/8835f66d5cd859aa70af7398fd97f293/FMF-Issue-020426_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
To be sure, it&rsquo;s not all about rare earths. The U.S. critical-mineral stockpile announced earlier this week is likely to include everything from gallium to cobalt to lithium &mdash; essential for industries as diverse as automobiles, aerospace and energy.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The U.S. government taking equity stakes in companies was mostly a 2025 story. 
The headline companies included MP Materials, Intel, U.S. Steel&hellip; and in early 2026, USA Rare Earth.
Paradigm Press readers have fared very well as our editors had the foresight to anticipate both the policy and the potential beneficiaries of that policy.
Several of our publications recommended MP Materials, or options on MP Materials. Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha readers benefited the most, with 918% gains on MP call options.
Several of our publications also recommended USA Rare Earth &mdash; notably the Paradigm Mastermind Group, a showcase where several of our editors can unveil their most cutting-edge ideas.
In fact, USAR was the focus of a one-of-a-kind event we hosted five months ago called the &ldquo;All-In Summit.&rdquo;
It&rsquo;s a rare moment indeed when macro maven Jim Rickards, AI authority James Altucher and trading pro Enrique Abeyta are &ldquo;all in&rdquo; on a single buy recommendation &mdash; and not just any buy, but a screaming buy. Their consensus on USAR delivered 191% gains in a little over two months.
As it happens, they&rsquo;ve reached consensus again.
As before, action in Washington, D.C. is central to the story. And this time the opportunity could prove to be even more lucrative. (The potential upside is as much as 2,166% in the coming weeks.)
This initiative brings President Trump back together with Elon Musk&hellip; with essential input from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
If you&rsquo;re a current Paradigm Mastermind Group subscriber, you&rsquo;ll get the scoop on this new &ldquo;All In&rdquo; recommendation tomorrow afternoon. Watch your inbox.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Overreaction Much?
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Software stocks are getting smoked &mdash; so much so they&rsquo;re starting to look like a buy.
Yesterday the AI startup Anthropic announced it&rsquo;s adding a set of legal tools to its assistant called Cowork. If the tools live up to their promise, much routine legal research and drafting can be handled by AI.
The news crushed the share prices of companies that provide legal software and/or databases &mdash; Thomson Reuters, LegalZoom, the London Stock Exchange all fell 12% or more. Then the selling spread to software stocks in general &mdash; the Salseforces, ServiceNows and Intuits of the world.
And that proved to be a drag on the market overall &mdash; the Nasdaq ending yesterday down 1.4% and the S&amp;P 500 down 0.8%.
The selling sent the S&amp;P 500 Software Sector ETF (IGV) down so hard, its relative strength index tumbled beneath 20.
As you might be aware, RSI can be a valuable tool: Readings over 70 suggest an asset is overbought and due for a reset. Readings under 30 suggest it&rsquo;s oversold and primed for a rebound.
So for IGV&rsquo;s RSI to sink below 20? &ldquo;This has happened only two times in the 25-year history of the ETF,&rdquo; says trading pro Enrique Abeyta. &ldquo;Both times it was higher by double digits in 90 days.
&ldquo;We think this particular sell-off makes no sense and would be aggressively buying high-quality software stocks right now.&rdquo;
[Editor&rsquo;s note: Enrique originally shared this tidbit on the Daily Feed section of the Paradigm Press mobile app &mdash; where all day our editors are peppering readers with instant insights like these.
The app is also your one-stop shopping source for the buy and sell recommendations of all your paid publications. No more sifting through email to find the most essential info! <a href="https://d2z65klgtz99km.cloudfront.net/PPG-App/">Download here</a>.]
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;I'm looking for signs of capitulation today in some of these tech wrecks,&rdquo; Greg Guenthner writes his Trading Desk readers.
&ldquo;This software sell-off is getting a little ridiculous. I'm not saying that these stocks should magically zip back to their highs. But we should see if we can get some sign of an oversold bounce here.&rdquo;
In the meantime, however, the software sell-off has dragged down the S&amp;P 500 another half-percent on the day &mdash; under 6,900 now. The Nasdaq is off another 1.5%. But the Dow is in the green, up over a half percent.
Bitcoin broke to 52-week lows in the last 24 hours, sitting now a little over $73,000. Ethereum is holding the line on $2,100 for the moment.
Crude is hanging in there at $63.51, smack in the middle of its trading range the last week or so. We&rsquo;ll cover precious metals separately in Bullet No. 3.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Now that the latest &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; is over, the Labor Department says the January jobs report will be five days late.
Originally it was supposed to come out on Friday; now it won&rsquo;t be till next Wednesday. In the meantime, the payroll firm ADP says private employers added 22,000 jobs in January. That&rsquo;s way less than the typical Wall Street economist was expecting. Worse, the growth came only in one category, &ldquo;education and health services.&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Oh, about the shutdown: Congress passed and the president signed a bill funding most of the government through Sept. 30 this year &mdash; except Homeland Security. That&rsquo;s still pending an agreement on how ICE agents are to conduct themselves going forward.
Curiously the bill includes $5 billion in taxpayer aid for refugees who aren&rsquo;t in the country legally &mdash; and yet, all but one Republican voted &ldquo;yea.&rdquo;
<a id="3"></a>
The one Republican was Kentucky&rsquo;s Thomas Massie, who introduced an amendment stripping that funding &mdash; only to be shot down by House Republican leadership, presumably on orders from the White House. Go figure&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Silver Crash: Now It Can Be Told
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Another day, another round of gyrations in the precious metals.
Gold was within sight of $5,100 overnight but at last check it&rsquo;s clinging to $4,900. Silver surpassed $90 this morning but now it&rsquo;s barely over $85.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> When it comes to silver, &ldquo;the $90&ndash;100 zone now represents a massive wall of resistance, not because of any technical chart pattern, but because that's where thousands of retail traders are trapped in losing positions, waiting for any opportunity to exit at something close to breakeven.
&ldquo;Every rally toward those levels will be met with heavy supply.&rdquo;
So writes colleague Nick Riso. Nick is one of these incredibly smart behind-the-scenes guys we&rsquo;ve got at Paradigm that most of the time you never hear about. His knowledge of the internal plumbing of the options markets is second to none.
And make no mistake, he says it&rsquo;s the options trade that took down silver last Friday from $121 at its peak to $73 at its trough.
&ldquo;Every crisis has a moment where the machinery breaks down completely,&rdquo; he writes &mdash; &ldquo;where whatever thin veneer of order had been maintained simply vanishes. For silver on Jan. 30, that moment arrived at 12:55 PM.&rdquo;
You can read the entire blow-by-blow, before and after that moment, <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/how-the-machine-ate-itself">here</a>. Yes, it&rsquo;s long. But it&rsquo;s thoroughly digestible and totally worth your time.
Nick also takes a wrecking ball to the conventional wisdom about how the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair figures into the story. It is not the mainstream narrative about how Warsh is an inflation hawk. Rather it&rsquo;s something else. Again, <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/how-the-machine-ate-itself">go read</a>.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Whoever came up with this nailed all the buzzwords and gobbledygook. Like, perfectly. If you&rsquo;re ever on LinkedIn, you&rsquo;ll recognize it immediately&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6X2vR8Dy20cdj2UK9EpvA9/64dee4862449f69821d78d3aaefcd737/FMF-Issue-020426_3_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Why We Do What We Do
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;You guys have been delivering value to me for a while and I want to share my gratitude for allowing me to sign up,&rdquo; says a reader who reminds us why we do what we do here.
&ldquo;You guys have consistently provided emails and text updates and I am feeling like I am making progress in my personal life because of the endless value that has been provided. So many people should listen to this but as you know not everybody is on the same page so we gotta do what we can with what we got.&nbsp;
&ldquo;I'm excited for the summit coming up and I look forward to hearing from you guys then.&rdquo;
Dave responds: We&rsquo;ve stepped up our game around here in recent months when it comes to making sure our paid publications keep readers posted about all of the open recommendations. We&rsquo;re heartened that you&rsquo;ve noticed.
And we have more improvements in the works. Stay tuned!

FMF-Issue-020426(Featured)

Critical Minerals Ministerial

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Blackout Nation: An Update
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> At the risk of sounding like a broken record, you need to start preparing for the likelihood of regular electric blackouts before the end of this decade.
We began sounding the alarm about the fragility of the power grid in the summer of 2022. In many regions &mdash; particularly the Upper Midwest &mdash; too many coal and nuclear plants were being shuttered&hellip; and there wasn&rsquo;t nearly enough solar and wind capacity coming online to replace it.
(Your editor, based in the Upper Midwest, bought a generator that summer &mdash; just in case.)
And this was before AI burst into popular consciousness when ChatGPT 3.5 was released later in 2022. By 2024 we were regularly warning that AI could become <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-monster-that-ate-the-power-grid-ai">&ldquo;the monster that ate the power grid.&rdquo;</a> Only last year did the mainstream start picking up on the story.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> It was down to the wire last month during the big winter storm that blasted everywhere from Texas to the Northeast.
On Monday Jan. 26, the biggest grid operator in the country &mdash; serving 67 million customers in 13 states &mdash; said 24% of its deliverable power that day came from coal.
Old-economy, dirty coal &mdash; without it, 20% of the demand in its territory that day would have gone unfilled &mdash; resulting in blackouts.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The situation won&rsquo;t get better and will likely get worse between now and 2030.
That&rsquo;s according to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation &mdash; which a few days ago issued its annual &ldquo;Long Term Reliability Assessment.&rdquo;
The one-sentence takeaway: If you live anywhere in the red areas on this map, you&rsquo;re at &ldquo;high risk.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7FWruYIh5ilFsHS88i2WDz/43a445bf07944776e73b8bc2b483eda7/FMF-Issue-02-10-26_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Let&rsquo;s dig into a few details, region-by-region&hellip;
<ul>
<li>PJM, a 13-state territory stretching from New Jersey west to Illinois: This is a region that includes &ldquo;Data Center Alley&rdquo; in northern Virginia &mdash; the highest concentration of data centers in the world. PJM is already at &ldquo;elevated risk,&rdquo; which flips to &ldquo;high risk&rdquo; by 2029. From the report: &ldquo;Current projections for resource additions do not keep pace with escalating demand forecasts and expected generator retirement&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>MISO, a 15-state territory stretching from Minnesota to Louisiana: &ldquo;Elevated risk&rdquo; next year, &ldquo;high risk&rdquo; in 2028. From the report: &ldquo;Projected resource additions do not keep pace with escalating demand forecasts and announced generator retirements&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>ERCOT, the Texas grid: Currently &ldquo;elevated risk,&rdquo; also slipping into &ldquo;high risk&rdquo; come 2029 like PJM. The report warns that &ldquo;continued rapid load growth outpaces projected resource additions in later years.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Do you detect a pattern here? None of the issues we began warning about in 2022 have been addressed in any meaningful way.
The three regions listed above aren&rsquo;t the only ones that will slip into the red &ldquo;high risk&rdquo; category before the end of the decade. You can review NERC&rsquo;s report for yourself <a href="https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/nerc_ltra_2025.pdf">right here</a>.
And the report might be underselling the risks: NERC says California is at a &ldquo;normal&rdquo; level of risk&hellip; but Paradigm energy authority Byron King says &ldquo;on any given day, about one-third of California&rsquo;s non-solar electricity is wheeled in from outside &mdash; either the Pacific Northwest or the Rocky Mountains.&rdquo;
Both of those regions, you&rsquo;ll note, are in the red.
What to do? You can attack this issue from a couple of angles:
<ul>
<li>First, there&rsquo;s personal preparedness. If you don&rsquo;t have the funds for one of those Generac &ldquo;whole house&rdquo; generators, garden-variety gasoline-fired generators are much more affordable and can keep essential loads running. Do it right: Have an electrician install a transfer switch and breaker interlock. Then test your backup system at least three times a year so you&rsquo;ll know what to do step-by-step once the lights go out for real</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>As for how to invest&hellip; Last year, Paradigm readers started reaping the profits from this phenomenon as share prices of &ldquo;independent power producers&rdquo; that aren&rsquo;t regulated utilities began to soar. On May 7, we offered a rare free pick in 5 Bullets &mdash; Constellation Energy &mdash; which rose 34% by year-end. Meanwhile, Enrique Abeyta pinpointed a special trade for his paid readers, garnering 177% on Talen Energy.</li>
</ul>
Shares of the independent power producers have pulled back in early 2026 &mdash; potentially serving up an attractive new entry point. Keep an eye out in your paid publication(s) for ways to play the trend as the year goes on.
Unfortunately there are no ETFs comprising only independent power producers &mdash; but those companies do make up a meaningful slice of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU).
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Rules Are Changing (Climate Regs)
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> On the margins, action by the White House might help alleviate the electricity crunch described in today&rsquo;s Bullet No. 1.
Today&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal has a front-page story telling us the Trump administration plans to junk the Obama administration&rsquo;s &ldquo;endangerment finding&rdquo; &mdash; which asserted that so-called climate change poses a threat to public health and welfare.
The finding, which dates to 2009, has been a key facet of what our Jim Rickards has long called the &ldquo;Green New Scam.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Expert climate change predictions have been wrong for 50 years,&rdquo; Jim wrote his Strategic Intelligence readers in December. &ldquo;Every year, the science experts claim the world will be flooded in 10 years and 10 years later they&rsquo;re wrong every time.&rdquo;
Ever since that 2009 finding, the EPA has exercised sweeping new powers beyond just keeping the air and water clean. Carbon dioxide came under its purview, and thus the agency has been tightening fuel-economy standards for vehicles and &mdash; relevant to our discussion today &mdash; capping carbon emissions from power plants. It&rsquo;s one reason why so many functional coal-fired plants are shutting down.
The final revised rule will be made public later this week. &ldquo;This amounts to the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States,&rdquo; EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin tells the Journal.
From the vantage point of early 2026 it&rsquo;s hard to say exactly what the impact will be. And it&rsquo;s likely that the climate-change crowd will take the Trump administration to court.
But we figured it&rsquo;s worth putting on the record today&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Party Like It&rsquo;s 1999
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;When you strip away the fear and compare today&rsquo;s conditions to those in early 2000, it&rsquo;s clear the market is NOT at a top like the one before the dot-com collapse,&rdquo; says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta.
As we noted last week, a sell-off in software stocks like Salesforce has revived fears of an &ldquo;AI bubble&rdquo; &mdash; and chatter that we&rsquo;re in for a rerun of the dot-com bust, in which the Nasdaq crumbled by 78% starting in early 2000.
But &ldquo;the market is behaving very differently today,&rdquo; says Enrique &mdash; &ldquo;and many of the signals that defined that era are notably absent.&rdquo;
For one thing, the Nasdaq has not experienced the hyperbolic rise that it did at the end of the dot-com bust &mdash; an 80% surge in only five months.
Indeed the Nasdaq has been consolidating since mid-2025. &ldquo;Blow-off tops don&rsquo;t happen in markets that are correcting internally,&rdquo; Enrique says. &ldquo;They happen when everything rises together, relentlessly, regardless of earnings, growth or balance sheet strength.&rdquo;
For another thing, the Federal Reserve is not raising interest rates &mdash; which it was throughout 1999 and early 2000. Assuming Kevin Warsh is confirmed by the Senate as the new Fed chair, rate cuts are in the offing later in 2026.
&ldquo;Markets typically do not experience catastrophic tops when monetary policy is easing,&rdquo; Enrique says. &ldquo;Liquidity acts as a cushion. It supports risk assets, absorbs shocks and extends cycles longer than many expect.&rdquo;
And there&rsquo;s a third difference, perhaps the most important, he points out: The most notorious-dot coms &ldquo;were burning cash at staggering rates and financing growth almost entirely through debt issuance and equity dilution. When capital markets closed, those business models collapsed overnight.
&ldquo;Fast-forward to 2026 and the picture could not be more different. The companies committing the largest capital expenditures today are among the healthiest and most profitable enterprises on the planet.&rdquo;
That includes the four biggest hyperscalers &mdash; Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. &ldquo;The major technology leaders funding AI infrastructure are generating massive free cash flow, posting strong margins and operating with fortress-like balance sheets.&rdquo;
Bottom line: &ldquo;Against this backdrop, I feel more bullish than I&rsquo;ve been in years&hellip; This environment feels far more like 1999 than 2000.&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Maybe today is the day the S&amp;P 500 will notch its first close over 7,000.
At last check, the index is up a little less than a quarter percent to 6,980. The Nasdaq&rsquo;s gain is similar. The Dow is powering still higher into record territory, up a half percent and approaching 50,400.
Precious metals look positively sleepy by recent standards &mdash; gold down about $50 but still holding the line on $5,000 and silver down about two bucks to $81.30.
The major cryptos are little moved from this time 24 hours ago &mdash; Bitcoin a little under $70,000, Ethereum a little over $2,000.
Crude is inching higher at $64.54.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Steady as she goes for the nation&rsquo;s small-business sector.
The National Federation of Independent Business is out with its monthly Small Business Optimism Index. The headline number for January is 99.3, down slightly from December&rsquo;s 99.5. But it&rsquo;s still above the long-term average of this survey, which goes back more than 50 years.
On the portion of the survey where respondents are asked to identify their single-most important problem, taxes are in first place &mdash; cited by 18%.
&ldquo;Taxes ranking as the top issue is typically a sign that other, less consistent issues (labor quality, inflation, poor sales, etc.) are not currently in a bad state,&rdquo; says the NFIB&rsquo;s report.
But good help is still hard to find in many places: &ldquo;Quality of labor&rdquo; was cited by 16%. The cost and availability of insurance comes in third at 13% &mdash; the highest that category has registered in over seven years. Inflation was cited by 12%.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Copper: Still Attractive
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;Without a significant reduction in demand or a massive increase in supply, we will see a big squeeze in copper,&rdquo; says Real Wealth Insider editor Matt Badiali.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/teslas-loss-your-gain">Last month</a>, as copper crossed $6 a pound for the first time, Matt helped us spotlight the red metal&rsquo;s investment potential in the context of sturdy global demand for electric vehicles.
Since then, the price spiked over $6.50 at the same time gold and silver reached their manic highs &mdash; only to fall back.
But copper is hanging tough, still a little under $6, because the long-term story remains so compelling.
&ldquo;As we enter the age of AI and massive data center buildouts,&rdquo; says Matt, &ldquo;copper is more important than ever. And the supply/demand curve points to even higher prices.&rdquo;
Analysts at S&amp;P Global expect over the next 14 years, global copper supply will fall 23.8% short of demand. According to their recent report, &ldquo;The widening disconnect highlights copper's dual role as both enabler and potential bottleneck for the energy transition and digital transformation.&rdquo;
&ldquo;In other words,&rdquo; says Matt, &ldquo;if you&rsquo;re a tech bull, you&rsquo;re also a copper bull. The limited copper supply creates a &lsquo;systemic risk&rsquo; for AI.&rdquo;
As before, Matt says the simplest way to play it is with a basket of copper mining stocks &mdash; the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX).
But he&rsquo;s keeping an eye out for juicier opportunities: &ldquo;The setup in copper is so good today that we can move further down the food chain in this sector. We can take more risks and make larger gains without the fear of a price collapse.&rdquo;
If you&rsquo;re one of Matt&rsquo;s paid readers, keep an eye out for a recommendation or two along those lines. If you&rsquo;re not among them, Real Wealth Insider is currently closed to new subscribers &mdash; but we&rsquo;ll let you know when it reopens.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Paper Money as Floral Arrangements
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> From the central bank of Kenya comes a warning to stop using the country&rsquo;s banknotes as faux flowers for Valentine&rsquo;s Day.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6vclYRXgXU7w2Z7sl8gUdi/0e511e4bdc07a8157b5e33530e7f38da/FMF-Issue-02-10-26_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Apparently it&rsquo;s become something of a Valentine tradition there &mdash; &ldquo;popularized by celebrities and online influencers, who share videos of themselves presenting such bouquets during celebrations,&rdquo; reports the BBC.
The Central Bank of Kenya does not approve &mdash; issuing a notice on social media last week reminding citizens that defacing the paper currency comes with a penalty as steep as seven years in prison.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The news coverage we see of this story begs the question: Is the purchasing power of the Kenyan shilling so pitiful that it&rsquo;s useful mostly for fake floral arrangements?
We&rsquo;re pretty sure the blue banknotes used in the picture above are 200 shillings each &mdash; about $1.56 U.S. at the current exchange rate. And that exchange rate has been very stable since mid-2024.
So they&rsquo;re not worthless by any stretch. We&rsquo;re not in Zimbabwe-dollar territory here.
Indeed, the central bank says the problem comes when the paper currency is put back into use after being folded, rolled, glued, stapled and otherwise altered: Apparently it gums up ATMs and cash-counting machines.
Meanwhile, a website called The Punch tells us that &ldquo;Kenya is one of the world&rsquo;s leading producers of flowers, and the announcement has been welcomed by some who argue that fresh floral bouquets are more appropriate Valentine&rsquo;s Day gifts.&rdquo;
See guys, here&rsquo;s your subtle reminder that Saturday&rsquo;s the day. Get your flower order in early. You&rsquo;re welcome.

FMF-Issue-02-10-26(Featured)

Blackout Nation: An Update

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Project Vault
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> We mentioned it briefly yesterday and it deserves more attention today &mdash; the critical-minerals stockpile the Trump administration has in the works.
Project Vault, it&rsquo;s called. The seed money comes in the form of a taxpayer-backed loan from the U.S. government&rsquo;s Export-Import Bank &mdash; plus another $1.67 billion from the private sector.
&ldquo;The model mirrors the country&rsquo;s emergency oil reserve,&rdquo; says the Mining.com site, &ldquo;but focuses instead on materials such as gallium and cobalt used in products ranging from smartphones to jet engines.
&ldquo;The project spans the automotive, aerospace and energy sectors and underscores Trump&rsquo;s broader push to rewire U.S. supply chains away from China, the world&rsquo;s dominant producer and processor of critical minerals.
&ldquo;More than a dozen companies have reportedly signed on, including General Motors Co., Stellantis NV, Boeing Co., Corning Inc., GE Vernova Inc. and Alphabet Inc.&rsquo;s Google. Commodities traders Hartree Partners LP, Traxys North America LLC and Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. will handle purchases to fill the stockpile.&rdquo;
Vault&rsquo;s ambitious scope is exemplified by the two CEOs who were on hand for yesterday&rsquo;s announcement at the White House &mdash; GM&rsquo;s Mary Barra and mining billionaire Robert Friedland, the founder of Ivanhoe Mines.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5MjVldXA80YHdGGUUuGY1y/99503d86ab5a9db20c6e9a7f5af38132/FMF-Issue-02-03-26-_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
The U.S. government already has a national stockpile for military purposes; this one, we&rsquo;re told, is for civilian applications.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The mere appearance of the words &ldquo;critical minerals&rdquo; in a headline tends to give a boost to the rare-earth names &mdash; and this week is no exception.
As mentioned here yesterday, shares of USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) soared when Bloomberg broke the story ahead of the White House event.
USAR already got a lift last week when the Commerce Department took a 10% stake in the company &mdash; one of many equity stakes the U.S. government has taken in private firms during the Trump 47 administration.
Long before any of these headlines broke, however, the diverse analysts at Paradigm Press saw USAR&rsquo;s potential.
Macro maven Jim Rickards, AI authority James Altucher and trading pro Enrique Abeyta &mdash; they have vastly differing approaches to the recommendations they issue their readers.
But they were &ldquo;all in&rdquo; about USAR during a livestream event on Aug. 7, 2025. As such, we called it the &ldquo;All-In Summit.&rdquo;
USAR shares soared from around $14 at the time of that recommendation well past $40 &mdash; a 191% gain, to be precise. At the very peak in mid-October, Paradigm Mastermind Group readers were urged to sell half their position and let the rest ride. After this week&rsquo;s bounce, USAR trades near $26.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Of course, readers are curious when the next all-in recommendation is coming.
But as we said here last week, it&rsquo;s not often these three guys are on the same page. And the last thing the Paradigm leadership team wants to do is force agreement where agreement doesn&rsquo;t really exist just so we can sell more subscriptions.
(Would we sell more subscriptions by doing so? Yes. Would we have satisfied long-term customers who&rsquo;d renew those subscriptions? Probably not.)
And yet&hellip; in the same way all three of them anticipated developments from Washington that would benefit USAR big-time&hellip; they now see an effort coming together that&rsquo;s far more ambitious than Project Vault.
They&rsquo;re all hearing the same rumblings from their sources. Two of the world&rsquo;s most powerful men &mdash; Donald Trump and Elon Musk &mdash; are in on it. And so is the world&rsquo;s most valuable company, Nvidia.
There&rsquo;s no working name for it yet &mdash; so for the time being we&rsquo;re calling it Project Trinity.
Jim, James and Enrique have identified the one company they believe will benefit the most from this initiative. This single investment could be the key to locking in a potential 2,566% return over the next few weeks.
If you&rsquo;re a current member of the Paradigm Mastermind Group, watch your inbox for the recommendation Thursday afternoon.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Gold-Silver Rebound
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The rebound in precious metals today is a sight to behold.
After a Sunday-night plunge to nearly $4,400, gold is now $70 away from reclaiming the $5,000 level &mdash; which, we&rsquo;ll remind you, marked a record high last week before the dizzying run-up to $5,600.
Silver, meanwhile, is up a wild 11.4% on the day to $88.10.
During the big sell-off on Friday, we mentioned in real-time that the mainstream had latched onto a handy explanation &mdash; Donald Trump&rsquo;s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair. (Supposedly he&rsquo;s going to be an inflation hawk, resistant to Trump&rsquo;s entreaties for lower interest rates.)
We pooh-poohed the mainstream claptrap: The metals had run up too far, too fast. A correction was coming sooner or later. If Kevin Warsh weren&rsquo;t available for the mainstream to point to, it would have been something else. As our Enrique Abeyta would remind you, Warsh wasn&rsquo;t the reason for the sell-off, but it was the excuse.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;The real reasons for the gold and silver price plunge had to do with hedge fund traders taking profits, automated momentum trading, stop-loss algorithms, trend following and some panic,&rdquo; affirms Jim Rickards.
<ul>
<li>Profit-taking: &ldquo;Hedge fund traders don&rsquo;t really care about gold as money. For them, it&rsquo;s just another commodity like coffee, soybeans or lumber,&rdquo; says Jim. &ldquo;Imagine a hedge fund trader who bought gold on Dec. 31, 2025, at $4,340 per ounce using five-to-one leverage. With gold at $5,355 on Jan. 29, the unleveraged profit was 23%, but the leveraged profit was 117%! Time to cash out and take your money off the table</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Automation: &ldquo;Once some traders start to cash out and the price starts to go down, computers tell others to do the same. They follow suit and the price goes down more</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Stop-loss algorithms: &ldquo;At that point, the stop-loss algos kick in. Traders preset a maximum loss, and when that threshold is hit, the computers automatically close out their position. That drives prices even lower. At this point, longs are getting margin calls on the futures exchange (or from OTC dealers like Goldman Sachs) and they sell their positions for cash to settle up with the dealers. Selling begets selling.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
At that point, &ldquo;trend-following traders jump on board. Panic selling from all sides is not far behind.&rdquo;
Looking ahead, Jim says all the factors that sent gold to $5,000 will in time send it to $10,000 &mdash; starting with the steady purchases by central banks around the world and mining output that&rsquo;s been flat for the last six years.
&ldquo;Don&rsquo;t panic,&rdquo; he concludes. &ldquo;If you have not invested in gold yet, or if your allocation is small, it&rsquo;s not too late to invest. The drawdown last Friday offers a better entry point today. The biggest gains are still ahead and will happen sooner rather than later. The time to invest is now.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />SpaceXAI
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Last week&rsquo;s hot rumor is this week&rsquo;s confirmed news.
&ldquo;SpaceX has acquired xAI to form the most ambitious, vertically integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth,&rdquo; Elon Musk announced yesterday.
Paradigm tech-inevesting pro Ray Blanco heard the rumors all day Thursday at the SpaceCom event in Orlando &mdash; and tipped off readers via the Paradigm Press mobile app.
Musk&rsquo;s rationale: The merger will make it easier to pursue his goal of orbiting data centers &mdash; with 24/7 solar power that doesn&rsquo;t compete with homeowners and businesses for scarce electricity back on Earth.
Depending on who you believe, the combined company is worth about $1.25 trillion. There&rsquo;s no way to know for sure, given that neither entity was publicly traded; plans for a SpaceX IPO are still supposed to be on track for later this year.
(Or maybe Musk will fold everything under Tesla &mdash; as colleague Davis Wilson <a href="https://million-mission.com/posts/ticker-symbol-elon-coming-soon">speculated</a> last month.)
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> What the broad stock market gained yesterday, it&rsquo;s losing today.
As we write the S&amp;P 500 is down more than a half percent to 6,934. While the index poked its nose over 7,000 last week it hasn&rsquo;t been able to close over that level. The Nasdaq&rsquo;s losses are steeper, the Dow&rsquo;s narrower. Walmart just surpassed a $1 trillion valuation, rarefied air usually occupied by tech-adjacent companies.
Elsewhere, crude is consolidating just under $63. Crypto&rsquo;s woes are not over &mdash; Bitcoin now under $77,000 and Ethereum at $2,250.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Epstein
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> There&rsquo;s not much we can say about the new Jeffrey Epstein revelations that others haven&rsquo;t already, except&hellip;
The hits keep coming for Peter Mandelson, the longtime British politico who had to resign as ambassador to the United States last fall because of his relationship with Epstein.
Today brings word that he&rsquo;s now giving up his position in the House of Lords. Really, this is egregious&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/524OtTl1NXG8tszMpZk9gk/0a193a7e4e6a7be04d95053f3d0645ee/FMF-Issue-02-03-26-_2_.png" alt="pub" width="497px" />
&ldquo;For all the newfound insistence that Epstein files are devoid of major revelations, they sure are destroying the reputation and standing of a lot of very powerful people,&rdquo; observes the journalist and civil libertarian Glenn Greenwald.
On this side of the pond, there&rsquo;s former Treasury Secretary and former Harvard President Larry Summers &mdash; who &ldquo;paused&rdquo; his public appearances last November after his correspondence with Epstein was made public.
&ldquo;A key revelation,&rdquo; Greenwald continues on X, &ldquo;is how Epstein's known offenses were irrelevant for his standing among global elites.&rdquo;
Word. And there&rsquo;s a different sort of impunity at work, too&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2vPbV9tyCy7tqRUWKheLDS/8843a450c4a99f0cfbbb8d8992f161b2/FMF-Issue-02-03-26-_3_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> OK, we&rsquo;re a day late, but&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/74P3xMGMxLCxfOHa63nGZK/9eb913188cc5fa85bd123d096686f742/FMF-Issue-02-03-26-_4_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />

FMF-Issue-02-03-26-(Featured)

Project Vault

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" /> OK, time to take a deep breath&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6F3aqFAnj4yc3rtji2HO1Q/450be07446bebb2358430119be46d29d/FMF-Issue-02-02-26_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Yes, precious metals got whacked on Friday. They&rsquo;re getting whacked some more today.
Let&rsquo;s try to get some perspective as we look at our screens this morning. Gold is just under $4,700. That level was a record high way back on&hellip; Jan. 19. Two weeks ago.
Silver is a little over $80. That was a record high way back on&hellip; Dec. 28. Barely a month ago.
Meanwhile on X, author Lawrence McDonald reminds us that Microsoft&rsquo;s share price is no higher today than it was in&hellip; March 2024.
Netflix shares trade today for the same price they did in November 2024. And by the same token you&rsquo;d be at breakeven on Tesla shares held since [gulp] November 2021.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The metals had gone up too far, too fast. A reset was inevitable.
What do Paradigm&rsquo;s top experts have to say now? Macro maven Jim Rickards weighed in Friday evening on the Paradigm mobile app&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2xLzcsU5ZsvEa5yX1N89fF/c8caa6f656e170531a5f94ae6cadc6d1/FMF-Issue-02-02-26_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Trading pro Enrique Abeyta is in broad agreement: &ldquo;Despite the dramatic move last week and the volatility, we are likely to see in coming weeks, the multiyear bull market in silver is not at all over,&rdquo; he writes in our Truth &amp; Trends e-letter, set for publication later today.
&ldquo;In fact, it may still be in its early innings.&rdquo;
None of the factors that drove silver over $50 last year has changed: Supply is tight. Demand is growing. Confidence in fiat currencies both here and abroad is eroding.
The factors that drove silver from $50 to $120? Those did change. The first wave of price appreciation attracted the &ldquo;momentum&rdquo; crowd &mdash; people who don&rsquo;t care about supply or demand or other factors.
&ldquo;These investors do NOT care about the long-term reasons to be bullish silver,&rdquo; Enrique says. &ldquo;They only care that the price is going up.
&ldquo;&hellip; and when the price stops going up? They sell.&rdquo;
Simple as that. If you&rsquo;re into silver for the long term, Jim and Enrique say hold on tight. Your patience will be further rewarded.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Markets Today: Rare Earths and Oil
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> As a new week begins, the momentum crowd that&rsquo;s ditching silver is suddenly discovering rare earths.
&ldquo;President Donald Trump is set to launch a strategic critical-minerals stockpile with $12 billion in seed money,&rdquo; reports Bloomberg &mdash; &ldquo;a bid to insulate manufacturers from supply shocks as the U.S. works to slash its reliance on Chinese rare earths and other metals.
&ldquo;The venture &mdash; dubbed Project Vault &mdash; is set to marry $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank to procure and store the minerals for automakers, tech firms and other manufacturers.&rdquo;
As always in situations like these, the details are fuzzy. How much of this is new and how much of it is a continuation of Trump administration initiatives from last year? (We chronicled many of these initiatives here in 5 Bullets &mdash; and many Paradigm readers profited from plays on MP Materials and similar names.)
In any event, investors are bidding up many of the big rare earth names today. USA Rare Earth, for instance, is up 11.5%.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The broader stock market is starting the week in the green.
At last check the S&amp;P 500 is up over half a percent to 6,980 &mdash; challenging last week&rsquo;s peak. The Nasdaq&rsquo;s gain is a bit stronger, the Dow&rsquo;s stronger still.
The big economic number of the day is the ISM Manufacturing Index &mdash; which roared higher in January from 47.9 to 52.6.
Numbers over 50 suggest the factory sector is growing &mdash; under 50, shrinking. This figure has spent most of the last three years under that 50 watermark, so we&rsquo;ll be on the lookout for a sustainable rebound.
Speaking of economic data, the Labor Department says there will be no January jobs report this Friday, owing to the &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; that began over the weekend.
Crypto is in a world of hurt &mdash; Bitcoin a little over $79,000 and that&rsquo;s up from the weekend lows. Ethereum sits under $2,400.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Oil prices have cratered nearly three bucks to $62.23 because U.S. forces did not attack Iran over the weekend.
When we left you on Friday, the price action suggested traders were positioning themselves for some sort of renewed conflict.
But no attack took place: U.S. media report that the Pentagon wants to get more air defenses into place first, while Iranian media report that President Masoud Pezeshkian has ordered new negotiations with Washington about Iran&rsquo;s civilian nuclear program.
Back stateside&hellip; there&rsquo;s a merger to report in the energy sector, creating a major player in shale oil: Devon Energy is combining with Coterra Energy in a $58 billion all-stock deal. DVN shares are up more than a half-percent as we write while CTRA is down over 2%.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Space Is Vast&hellip; But This Is Bigger
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;I&rsquo;m thinking about how major shifts happen. The world transforms quietly while we're looking elsewhere. By the time most people notice, the change is already complete,&rdquo; muses Paradigm tech-investing pro Ray Blanco.
&ldquo;I think we're in one of those moments right now &mdash; and it's not just AI or the breakthroughs happening on the ground.&rdquo;
Ray couldn&rsquo;t help being awed in this way attending the SpaceCom event in Orlando &mdash; which wrapped up on Friday.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/mHCeebTtMjF3Buhy82ipw/44c40597bcbc9c85c75b5561ab91a125/FMF-Issue-02-02-26_3_.jpg" alt="pub" width="540px" /> Our man in Orlando&hellip;
&ldquo;Something bigger is taking shape overhead,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;A new layer of infrastructure beyond our planet &mdash; intelligence, connectivity and industrial capability that's already reshaping how the economy works.
&ldquo;We call it &lsquo;space,&rsquo; but that word feels too small for what I've been witnessing here. It's infrastructure that will be as fundamental as railroads were when they were built or the internet.
&ldquo;Most investors will recognize this shift years from now after it's already happened. You're learning about it today while the foundation is still being poured.
&ldquo;Generational wealth is made by those who see the trend before it becomes obvious. That's the difference between watching wealth being created and creating it yourself.
&ldquo;This has been an incredible three days not only for my current research, but for my understanding of where breakthrough tech is headed next.&rdquo;
Ray will share more of his takeaways with his readers in the days and weeks ahead, so keep an eye out.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Aliens and Markets
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Here&rsquo;s a problem we hadn&rsquo;t started thinking about yet &mdash; disruptions to the markets caused by disclosure about aliens.
But a former analyst for the United Kingdom&rsquo;s central bank is thinking about it.
Helen McCaw is her name and she&rsquo;s dashed off a letter to Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey. The Times of London got its hands on the letter.
&ldquo;The United States government,&rdquo; she wrote, &ldquo;appears to be partway through a multiyear process to declassify and disclose information on the existence of a technologically advanced nonhuman intelligence responsible for unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAPs).
&ldquo;If the UAP proves to be of nonhuman origin, we may have to acknowledge the existence of a power or intelligence greater than any government and with potentially unknown intentions.&rdquo;
Hmmm&hellip; McCaw attributes far greater &ldquo;intelligence&rdquo; to government than is deserved.
Be that as it may, she speculates that disclosure might spur a rush toward safe-haven assets including bonds and gold.
On the other hand, she said precious metals might lose their luster if all of a sudden there would be an influx of metal arriving from outer space.
Beyond that, she speculates &ldquo;there might be extreme price volatility in financial markets due to catastrophising or euphoria, and a collapse in confidence if market participants feel uncertain on how to price assets using any of the familiar methods.&rdquo;
She left out the part about government insiders trading on inside information &mdash; which seems like the surest outcome of all!
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />What Goes Into the Mailbag?
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;Hi, I&rsquo;m quite disappointed you didn&rsquo;t feature my reply about 9/11,&rdquo; a reader writes.
&ldquo;You guys should consider incorporating a few more reader responses in your daily 5 Bullets.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Sorry to disappoint in this instance &mdash; although we&rsquo;re heartened to see that you follow our scribblings so closely!
There are many variables that go into deciding which reader emails we include in the issues, and which don&rsquo;t make the cut.
If there&rsquo;s a lot going on in the news and the markets &mdash; which has been the case lately &mdash; we&rsquo;ll tend to showcase less reader mail unless there&rsquo;s a truly hot topic.
Other variables include informational value, entertainment value and whether the reader&rsquo;s musings inspire a tangent on my part.
In your own case, I didn&rsquo;t want to get too far afield from our financial beat. We had a longtimer write in response to my issue-length exploration of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/usd1-5-trillion">the military-industrial complex</a>. He had a handful of interesting points and then proceeded to assert that 9/11 was an inside job.
I wasn&rsquo;t about to suppress that portion of his email but neither was I going to open up a days-long debate about it. So I briefly said my piece and dropped the matter.
The exclusion of your email had nothing to do with whether you had something worthwhile to say &mdash; and I encourage you to keep writing!

FMF-Issue-02-02-26(Featured)

Gold & Silver: What Changed

FMF-Issue-01-30-26(Featured)

Elon’s Long Game

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Don&rsquo;t Give up on Silver Yet
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Silver surpassed $120 today. It doubled in less than two months.
A picture of silver&rsquo;s chart right now could easily go next to the word &ldquo;hyperbolic&rdquo; in the dictionary.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5kzn3iW2kwDmm9Wwq2MivL/e82a68fa4bf345a40db931a2842507d6/FMF-Issue-01-29-26_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Yes, it will pull back at some point.
(Checking our screens, &ldquo;some point&rdquo; might be starting today &mdash; the bid now under $110.)
Precious metals guru Don Durrett &mdash; one of the voices outside Paradigm we follow most closely &mdash; figures $85 is the new floor.
Which we&rsquo;ll point out was a record only a month ago.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> But after that inevitable pullback, silver is on track to soar even higher.
Within the Paradigm stable, commodities trading veteran Alan Knuckman says based on the charts, he sees a &ldquo;blow-off top coming &mdash; maybe $150 or $200 an ounce.&rdquo;
Macro maven Jim Rickards &mdash; who ignores charts and focuses on fundamentals &mdash; arrives at a very similar conclusion: He wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised to see $200 silver this year.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Even big mainstream Wall Street firms &mdash; which typically hate precious metals because the metals don&rsquo;t generate fat commissions &mdash; are giving silver its due. 
Bank of America&rsquo;s chief of metals research Michael Widmer sees a peak anywhere between $135 and&hellip; brace yourself&hellip; $309.
The high end of that range is based on the gold-silver ratio &mdash; literally the price of gold divided by the price of silver. Here&rsquo;s a very long-term chart of the ratio going back a century&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/55rp0crTtDQXDN2JPsCwLy/ea2833acea8fc1e7a7d912fac480edf3/FMF-Issue-01-29-26_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
This morning the ratio sits at 46:1 &mdash; down dramatically since last fall. But in 1980, the ratio sank as low as 14:1. Based on gold&rsquo;s price at the start of this year &mdash; $4,326 &mdash; that&rsquo;s how Widmer arrives at his $309 outlier.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> If you really want to have fun with this ratio, a silver price of $714 an ounce is not out of the question.
Consider that Jim Rickards is on record projecting a gold price of $10,000 an ounce &mdash; perhaps even by late this year. That&rsquo;s totally plausible when you consider it&rsquo;s already well over $5,000; it wouldn&rsquo;t even have to double from here.
Yesterday, colleague Adam Sharp ran the numbers at The Daily Reckoning: Assuming a $10,000 gold price&hellip; and a gold-silver ratio of 14:1&hellip; well, that&rsquo;s how you get $714 silver.
Yes, that&rsquo;s a far-out projection. But even if silver rises to a level only half of that lofty figure&hellip; well, that gets you very close to the $309 figure that the mainstream won&rsquo;t rule out.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Is the TSLA-to-ELON Transition Underway?
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> For years, critics said Tesla was not a technology company &mdash; just a car company with extremely pricey shares. As of today, the claim no longer holds water.
Tesla issued its quarterly numbers yesterday after the closing bell. The 61% drop in profits was overshadowed by two announcements&hellip;
<ul>
<li>TSLA will sink $2 billion into Elon Musk&rsquo;s private artificial-intelligence firm xAI</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The company will wind down production of the Model S and Model X at its Fremont, California plant; the factory floor will be converted to making Optimus robots.</li>
</ul>
Last Friday, colleague Davis Wilson at our sister e-letter The Million Mission served up a cheeky proposition: Musk would <a href="https://million-mission.com/posts/ticker-symbol-elon-coming-soon">consolidate all of his sundry businesses under the Tesla umbrella</a>, perhaps changing the ticker symbol to ELON.
Hmmm&hellip; The Tesla investment in xAI seems like a big step in that direction, no?
In the meantime, Wall Street is reacting badly to the slew of announcements, sending TSLA down over 3% as we write.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Elsewhere, you might call today&rsquo;s action on Wall Street a Tale of Two Hyperscalers.
Meta and Microsoft also reported their numbers late yesterday. Both companies beat the estimates of the typical Wall Street analyst. Both projected huge increases in spending on AI during 2026.
And that&rsquo;s where the similarities end. Unlike Meta, Microsoft&rsquo;s spending projections were higher than Wall Street&rsquo;s expectations. With that, MSFT shares are getting clobbered &mdash; down nearly 12% on the day. META on the other hand is up 7%.
It seems the Microsoft news is weighing more on the major U.S. stock averages than Meta&rsquo;s: The S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 1.5% on the day, back below 6,900. The Nasdaq is down 2.5%, while the Dow&rsquo;s losses are about three-quarters of a percent.
Crypto is selling off, too &mdash; Bitcoin under $85,000 and Ethereum approaching $2,800.
Crude, however, is up over two bucks &mdash; above $65 for the first time since late September. There&rsquo;s no new news about U.S. strikes on Iran, but traders continue to price in a growing likelihood.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;I&rsquo;ll admit my mistake,&rdquo; Jim Rickards says after the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s latest policy-setting meeting.
Jim was anticipating a cut of a quarter-percentage point and a badly split vote among the Fed&rsquo;s Open Market Committee of 8-4.
In the event, the FOMC kept the fed funds rate steady at 3.75% and there were only two dissenting votes, both by Trump appointees favoring a cut.
&ldquo;The decision to pause rate cuts had nothing to do with the economy and everything to do with politics,&rdquo; Jim writes his Crisis Trader readers today.
&ldquo;Donald Trump wants lower rates. He has practically declared war on the Federal Reserve to get them. Even when the Fed cut rates as they have in recent meetings, Trump complains they did not cut them enough.
&ldquo;This meeting was Jay Powell&rsquo;s way of poking a stick in Donald Trump&rsquo;s eye. In this effort, he was happily joined by almost the entire board.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Gold, Central Banks and Tether
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Gold is getting smacked along with silver &mdash; tumbling from a peak of $5,575 to below $5,300. As it happens, $5,300 was a record high only yesterday.
The World Gold Council is out with its final report on central bank gold demand in 2025. It fell 20% from 2024 levels &mdash; but is still much higher than at any time before 2022.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7wOa7jarGxtGlhM7p0a2MO/9c20656edb0dcd05a842bc14dfa33b5c/FMF-Issue-01-29-26_3_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
As we never tire of pointing out, the buying spree began in 2022 when the Biden administration froze the dollar-based assets of Russia&rsquo;s central bank. Government leaders around the world started wondering if it would happen to them too if they did something to offend politicians in D.C. Gold can&rsquo;t be frozen or seized as long as it&rsquo;s in safe storage.
The buying has eased off, but it continues at a healthy clip. As such, central banks continue to keep a floor under the gold price.
Meanwhile, investor demand for gold soared 84% according to the World Gold Council&rsquo;s calculations. &ldquo;The drop in central bank demand was completely overshadowed by the increase we have seen in investment demand,&rdquo; says WGC market strategist John Reade.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Also doing its part to fuel demand &mdash; the stablecoin firm Tether.
&ldquo;We are soon becoming basically one of the biggest, let&rsquo;s say, gold central banks in the world,&rdquo; Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino tells Bloomberg.
El Salvador-based Tether has accumulated about 140 metric tons of gold and is adding another one or two every week &mdash; most of it held underground in Switzerland. Bloomberg calculates over half its stash was acquired last year. Only one central bank in the world, Poland, acquired more.
Most of it is for the company&rsquo;s own reserves; the rest supports a gold-backed stablecoin.
Might the firm dial back its purchases? &ldquo;Maybe we are going to reduce, we don't know yet,&rdquo; Ardoino says. &ldquo;We are going to assess on a quarterly basis our demand for gold.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />On Site at SpaceCom
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;This is the big one. NASA, U.S. Space Force and a who's who list of space companies, from big defense primes to scrappy startups, are all here,&rdquo; says Paradigm tech investing specialist Ray Blanco.
Ray is in Orlando for an event called SpaceCom &mdash; which kicked off last night.
&ldquo;Four thousand attendees,&rdquo; he reports. &ldquo;250-plus exhibitors. Three days of boots-on-the-ground intelligence gathering. &ldquo;My goal is simple: Find the space investment opportunities before they get priced to the moon so we can go along for the ride!&rdquo;
Of course, Ray has to do his due diligence on readers&rsquo; behalf once he gets back home. But here&rsquo;s something that caught his eye right away.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1Yve4HKJuBmsMkQvqdCuho/5d6d990a98aa1a63fdea47b047509488/FMF-Issue-01-29-26_4_.jpg" alt="pub" width="540px" /> &ldquo;An aircraft carrier in space&rdquo; [Ray Blanco photo]
It&rsquo;s an orbital carrier. &ldquo;A startup called Gravitics is building them &mdash; think aircraft carriers in space &mdash; and funded by a $60 million U.S. Space Force contract. They expect to launch their first test carrier next year.
&ldquo;If China attacks our satellites in space, we can bypass waiting for launch and deploy from an orbital carrier already in space instead of having to wait on launch from the ground. This enables satellite replacements or defenses in hours instead of weeks. The company is also developing transfer vehicles to move the satellites to their final orbits.
&ldquo;There are commercial applications for satellite constellations as well and the company is also developing space habitats. Gravitics is a private company today but it could become a future opportunity.&rdquo;
In-between presentations, Ray is posting regularly to the Daily Feed section of the Paradigm Press mobile app. It&rsquo;s the only place you can see his regular updates from Orlando today and tomorrow &mdash; along with scads of instant insights from our team of experts. <a href="https://d2z65klgtz99km.cloudfront.net/PPG-App/">Download here</a>.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Pelosi, Gold Gain
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Your editor inadvertently raised a reader&rsquo;s partisan hackles in <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-only-safe-haven-left">yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;Where were you when Pelosi was pulling off all her insider trades? Did you profile her like you did Hern? Apologies if I missed it.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Oh, let&rsquo;s see &mdash; how about right off the top of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/todays-issue-is-not-about-pelosis-trades">this edition in 2024</a>? I imagine there are others, but deadline is approaching.
I&rsquo;d never heard of Kevin Hern until yesterday. I didn&rsquo;t notice what party he belongs to, nor do I care, nor did I even mention it. I just thought it was interesting on its own&hellip;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;With gold going parabolic in the last few days (using a personal modification on one of Jim's Rickards&rsquo; recommendations) I've realized gains in excess of what I usually make in a year working my job, and it's still January!&rdquo; a reader enthuses.
&ldquo;So I've got to be thinking, when the IRS demands I estimate how much I'm going to make this year, what am I going to tell them, and what happens if I am wrong in either direction? I've never made enough to have to pay upfront before. What do other traders and investors usually do?
&ldquo;I tried seeing a tax accountant and they did not have too much to offer in the way of advice for avoiding giving up the maximum amount possible from short-term gains. But I'm still considering going to see them to help with taxes this year. I've a feeling I'm going to need the help.&rdquo;
Dave responds: As you&rsquo;ve probably figured out by now, identifying investment opportunities is our stock in trade &mdash; &ldquo;personal finance,&rdquo; not so much. And especially not tax planning.
There are just too many permutations to the tax code that affect people in too many different ways.
Please, please consult a tax professional. Especially if you file quarterly estimated taxes. And ideally someone committed to making sure you pay only what you owe and not a cent more!

FMF-Issue-01-29-26(Featured)

Don’t Give up on Silver Yet

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Trump, the Dollar and &ldquo;Safe Havens&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> When it comes to the value of the U.S. dollar, Donald Trump is channeling Alfred E. Neuman, the mascot of the old MAD magazine: &ldquo;What, me worry?&rdquo;
Asked yesterday in Iowa whether he was worried about the dollar&rsquo;s recent drop relative to other major currencies, he said, &ldquo;No, I think it&rsquo;s great.
&ldquo;I mean, the value of the dollar, look at the business we are doing. No, the dollar is &mdash; the dollar is doing great.&rdquo;
And just like that, what had already been a precipitous slide in the U.S. dollar Index since mid-January turned into a rout &mdash; as seen in this candlestick chart from the good folks at StockCharts&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7ktB4fFtpKWODmECvQVj6D/f6fbc37574e8f114fb2b7f5d3dbff241/FMF-Issue-01-28-26_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
And gold sailed to crazy new heights. Again. At last check the bid is up another $96 to $5,275.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Even before Trump piped up yesterday, the International Monetary Fund said it was making contingency plans for a global run on the dollar.
On Monday, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said her organization is bracing for a rapid sell-off of U.S. dollar-denominated assets.
&ldquo;At the fund, one muscle that we are building is our ability to hypothetically present scenarios of unthinkable events and then figure out what to do,&rdquo; she said during an event in Belgium. Asked if one of those unthinkable events is a run on dollar assets she said the IMF runs &ldquo;all kinds of scenarios.&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Unfortunately, when it comes to insulating the global financial system from such a shock, the IMF has no &ldquo;muscle.&rdquo; It&rsquo;s the proverbial 98-pound weakling.
Georgieva&rsquo;s proposed solution is for the European Union to issue its own bonds, on top of those issued by individual EU member states. Because the EU is such a big market, EU bonds would supposedly provide investors an alternative to traditional &ldquo;safe haven&rdquo; assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold.
The idea is a nonstarter. For one thing, leaders of major EU nations like Germany and the Netherlands are dead-set against it.
And even if someone in EU leadership could herd cats and rally everyone around the notion&hellip; who&rsquo;d want to invest in the bonds of a region whose best economic days are behind it?
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Which leaves us all with the existing safe havens for scary moments &mdash; U.S. Treasuries and gold. But one of those safe havens is not like the other.
U.S. Treasuries were an outstanding safe haven from the 1980s all the way until 2020. Interest rates were falling steadily &mdash; which pushes bond prices higher. Treasuries were the ideal &ldquo;40&rdquo; component of a 60/40 portfolio: When the 60% of the portfolio devoted to stocks underperformed, the 40% devoted to bonds acted as a shock absorber.
But long-term Treasury rates bottomed in 2020. They&rsquo;ve been climbing steadily since. They don&rsquo;t even respond to moves by the Federal Reserve.
Over the last 40 years, every time the Fed has cut short-term interest rates, long-term rates have fallen in sympathy.
No longer: Since September 2024 the Fed has cut short-term rates from 5.5% to 3.75%. But the yield on a 10-year Treasury note has risen from 3.6% then to 4.25% today.
Higher bond yields, lower bond prices. The whole world knows that no one in Washington, D.C., either Republican or Democrat, will do anything about Uncle Sam&rsquo;s gargantuan $38.5 trillion debt. Medium- and long-term Treasuries are a loser now.
Which leaves gold. Yes, it&rsquo;s setting records day after day. Yes, it&rsquo;s up a nosebleed 23.2% year-to-date already. Yes, it&rsquo;s bound to correct sooner or later before the next leg up.
All we can say at this point is that if you don&rsquo;t have your full gold allocation yet &mdash; Jim Rickards recommends 10% of your investable assets &mdash; that you dollar-cost average. Buy a little bit every week or every month until you get to your 10%. That way you&rsquo;re sure to &ldquo;buy the dip&rdquo; now and then without trying to guess exactly when the gold price will turn up or down.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Market Miscellany
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Next, a quick follow-up to Bullet No. 2 in <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/nvda-and-goog-smart-moves">yesterday&rsquo;s edition&hellip;</a>
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5XUFbnpylEIHVYAD53NZw9/d13509b1ce91b8857432e057508d57a8/FMF-Issue-01-28-26_3_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
After yesterday&rsquo;s vicious sell-off in the major health insurers &mdash; UnitedHealth tumbled 20% by day&rsquo;s end &mdash; they&rsquo;re enjoying a very modest oversold bounce, UNH up 2.5% as we write.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> As for the broad stock market, the major U.S. indexes are doing what they usually do ahead of a Federal Reserve policy announcement &mdash; treading water.
The S&amp;P 500 poked its nose over 7,000 briefly this morning but has since pulled back to 6,990 &mdash; up less than 0.2% on the day. The Nasdaq is up over a third of a percent while the Dow is flat.
Among the big newsmakers are Amazon &mdash; which just announced its second round of job cuts in the last three months, 16,000 positions this time. AMZN shares are flat on the day ahead of the company&rsquo;s earnings release next week.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;Big day for chip stocks,&rdquo; says Davis Wilson of our sister e-letter The Million Mission.
&ldquo;Semiconductor heavyweights ASML and SK Hynix jumped Wednesday after delivering strong earnings, reinforcing that demand across the chip supply chain remains red-hot.
&ldquo;Adding fuel to the rally, China approved sales of Nvidia&rsquo;s H200, pushing NVDA shares higher early in the session and easing fears around export restrictions.
&ldquo;Between ongoing memory chip shortages and relentless AI-driven demand, the semiconductor trade is back in the spotlight &mdash; and investors are paying attention.&rdquo;
Davis posted this nugget on the &ldquo;Daily Feed&rdquo; section of the Paradigm Press mobile app &mdash; where you can get all-day access to instant insights like these. In addition, you get buy and sell alerts for all your paid publications without having to sift through gobs of email. If you haven&rsquo;t already downloaded the app, <a href="https://d2z65klgtz99km.cloudfront.net/PPG-App/">you can do so right now at this link</a>.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> We touched on gold earlier. Silver&rsquo;s gain is not as strong today &mdash; up $1.25 at last check to $113.33.
While silver is in territory that seemed unthinkable only a few weeks ago&hellip; it&rsquo;s been consolidating this week in a volatile range between $102&ndash;117. It&rsquo;s gold that&rsquo;s been playing catch-up &mdash; ending last week just shy of $5,000 and now within sight of $5,300.
As for digital assets, not much to say: Bitcoin is a little under $90,000, Ethereum a little over $3,000.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Crude is over $63 for the first time in four months as Donald Trump issues new threats against Iran.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6DiQtPs9hFJc2uZskgIT9V/3c046b79c8c6034322e59785169cebe5/FMF-Issue-01-28-26_4_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Why any of this is necessary when he told us last summer that U.S. bombing had &ldquo;completely obliterated&rdquo; Iran&rsquo;s nuclear sites, he did not say.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />85 Seconds to Midnight
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The &ldquo;Doomsday Clock&rdquo; is closer to midnight than it&rsquo;s ever been.
Regularly since 1947, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published a clock symbolizing the risk of nuclear Armageddon.
Throughout the Cold War, the clock never got closer than two minutes to midnight. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it&rsquo;s been <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/90-seconds-to-armageddon">90 seconds or less</a>, as seen on this infographic from Statista&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7EeWkgLKJRIr2dEkOLwYgd/fb935162b25617bd102c21ddc5355519/FMF-Issue-01-28-26_5_.png.jpg" alt="pub" width="540px" />
In recent years, the editors of the Bulletin have updated the clock every year during January. This week, they inched the clock forward from 89 seconds to 85.
Among their reasons: The last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia is set to expire one week from today. The &ldquo;New START&rdquo; treaty of 2011 kept a cap on the two sides&rsquo; nuclear arsenals &mdash; each country allowed 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and launchers.
New START will be the second major arms agreement junked under President Trump; during his first term he walked away from Ronald Reagan&rsquo;s Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which eliminated an entire class of nuclear weapons from the continent of Europe.
And so next week will mark the first time in over 50 years that there will be no bilateral treaty limiting the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals.
The relevance to the markets and the economy, you ask? None &mdash; except there won&rsquo;t be any markets or economy for us to talk about if the Earth is pockmarked with smoldering radioactive craters.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Ditching TikTok
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The new &ldquo;Made in America&rdquo; TikTok is so awful, hordes of users are walking away.
The market research firm Sensor Tower tells CNBC that the daily average number of users deleting the app has spiked 150% since the platform came under U.S. control last Thursday.
We&rsquo;ve chronicled the complaints in recent days: An intrusive new privacy policy&hellip; top users reporting zero views of their videos&hellip; claims of censorship&hellip; or the app just being either slow or unavailable.
And it seems users are seeking out alternatives&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/33qlpktPVC2hwYb0X7WuFh/46ff0c864ed45c72a41b4c341ba3f0dd/FMF-Issue-01-28-26_6_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
&ldquo;This is a textbook case of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect">Streisand effect</a>,&rdquo; says an observer on X. &ldquo;When platforms tighten censorship, users don&rsquo;t disappear &mdash; they migrate. TikTok&rsquo;s trust problem is becoming a growth engine for competitors, and UpScrolled is capitalizing on that moment perfectly.&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;I was one of the few Republicans that voted NO against the TikTok Ban,&ldquo; says a tweet from former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia).
[She was one of the few in either party to vote no, as a matter of fact&hellip;]
&ldquo;And now that it&rsquo;s been sold apparently people are getting censored for posting about Epstein and other things. People loved TikTok but they are leaving in droves because banning people&rsquo;s speech is worse than spying on them.&rdquo;
For its part, TikTok&rsquo;s new U.S. management says there are no rules against sharing the name &ldquo;Epstein&rdquo; in direct messages &mdash; a not-very-clever dodge that fails to address the claim that posts are being restricted.
This fiasco is a fitting conclusion to a sorry saga that was years in the making.
Two final observations, originally shared in <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/shut-up-and-obey">an issue-length exploration</a> of TikTok a year ago&hellip;
<ul>
<li>No one in either party tried to sell the American people on the urgency of either banning TikTok or bringing it under U.S. control. The politicos just did what they wanted, the people be damned</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>There will be more TikToks in the future: The law that forced the TikTok sale gives the president the authority to ban any website or app at his discretion if it is owned by a person or company in a &ldquo;foreign adversary country.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: 1968&hellip; and 2026
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;This was a fantastic report,&rdquo; says a very late-arriving reader email responding to <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-boomer-freak-out-of-2026">our Dec. 18 edition</a> &mdash; exploring a weird historical pattern that suggested that the tumultuous events of 1968 might reverberate during 2026.
(I suppose they already are?)
&ldquo;I remember very well all these events and you are spot-on. You missed the Newark riots, that I must admit was well done in the movie The Many Saints of Newark.
&ldquo;Dave, you are very good at this and you are one of the only nonpartisan reporters left. Thank you very much for sharing these insights.&rdquo;
Dave responds: After publishing that issue, I ran across <a href="https://www.chicago68.com/c68myths.html">a startling but credible claim</a>: At the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, &ldquo;an estimated one in six protesters was an undercover agent for the police, the Army or Navy or the FBI.&rdquo;
Doing some further digging, it turns out the estimate originates with a former Army intelligence offier-turned-whistleblower named Christopher Pyle, who turned his Ph.D. dissertation into a book called Military Surveillance of Civilian Politics, 1967&ndash;1970.
A 1978 CBS News broadcast also arrived at the one-in-six figure, citing Army sources.
Obviously not all of those faux &ldquo;protesters&rdquo; were agitators or provocateurs&hellip; but it doesn&rsquo;t take very many to stir up trouble.
Something to think about in light of events unfolding on our screens this month&hellip;

FMF-Issue-01-28-26(Featured)

The Only Safe Haven Left

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The &ldquo;Lag 7&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> If recent history is any guide, this week should be the biggest week of earnings season. 
In mid-2023, Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett coined the term &ldquo;Magnificent 7&rdquo; &mdash; applying it to a select group of tech-adjacent megacap stocks.
In alphabetical order they&rsquo;re Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
The Mag 7 were the engine powering the broad stock market during 2023 and 2024. Typically, five of the seven would report their quarterly earnings in the same week. Wall Street waited breathlessly for the numbers and conference calls. Financial media devoted as much hype to these weeks as they did to Federal Reserve meetings.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> And then came 2025.
Wall Street still waited breathlessly and the media still devoted oodles of airtime and bandwidth.
But the juice was gone. The S&amp;P 500 rose 16.4% for the year&hellip; and only two of the Mag 7 outdelivered the broad market.
Alphabet (GOOG) sailed 65% higher, while Nvidia (NVDA) rose 39%. The rest underperformed an S&amp;P 500 index fund. Jokes started to abound about the &ldquo;Lag 7.&rdquo;
This week, four of those underperformers report their numbers &mdash; Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla.
Alphabet used to be part of this frenzy every January, April, July and September. This time, however, it&rsquo;s sitting out &mdash; waiting to report its numbers until next week. Nvidia, for its part, has always reported several weeks after its Mag 7 brethren.
Smart move in both cases. If you&rsquo;re crushing it, best to report your numbers when they won&rsquo;t get lost in the shuffle of everyone else&rsquo;s numbers.
And so the &ldquo;biggest week of earnings season&rdquo; no longer has the razzle-dazzle it once did. Heck, CNBC thought it was worthy of &ldquo;Breaking News&rdquo; this morning when old-economy stalwarts Boeing and General Motors reported their numbers.
Times change&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Health Care: Crack in the System
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The big story on Wall Street today is the first obvious crack in an unsustainably costly U.S. health care system &mdash; not that the media are framing it in those terms.
&ldquo;The Trump administration is proposing roughly flat rates for Medicare insurers next year,&rdquo; reports The Wall Street Journal. 
Oops &mdash; Wall Street analysts were counting on an increase between 4&ndash;6%.
With that, Mr. Market is mercilessly punishing the big providers of Medicare Advantage plans: CVS Health (CVS) is down 10.8% at last check... UnitedHealth (UNH) down 18.5%&hellip; Humana (HUM) down 19.3%.
Your editor has been writing about the staggering costs of the American health care system for over a decade &mdash; <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/health-care-on-trial">most recently over the holidays</a>.
Health care took up barely 6% of all federal spending in 1970. Today that share has swelled to over 35%.
Something&rsquo;s got to give.
Perhaps Wall Street is starting to wake up to that reality, given the price action in the insurance stocks today. The Trump administration will make a final call on the compensation those companies get in April.
If you&rsquo;re on a Medicare Advantage plan right now &mdash; more than half of Medicare beneficiaries are &mdash; it&rsquo;s not too early to start thinking about what your world would look like if the system can no longer sustain these plans and your only option is a more costly Medicare supplement or &ldquo;Medigap&rdquo; plan.
At present one major health care provider &mdash; Mayo Clinic &mdash; already turns away patients who have only Medicare Advantage coverage.
Many others are likely to join Mayo&rsquo;s ranks if events continue on their current trajectory&hellip;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> As for the broader stock market, it&rsquo;s a mixed bag: The S&amp;P 500 is up a half percent as we write to 6,984.
If that number holds by day&rsquo;s end, it would be a record close. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, is up nearly 1%. But the Dow is down three-quarters of a percent, dragged down by the aforementioned UNH.
The action in precious metals so far this week has been dizzying &mdash; up huge Sunday night, down huge last night, up substantially (but not huge) today. Checking our screens gold is about 12 bucks shy of $5,100 while silver is over $108.
&ldquo;Volatility is likely to stick around,&rdquo; colleague Sean Ring writes in today&rsquo;s Rude Awakening. &ldquo;Scalpers will sell overbought rallies. Those sell-offs may overshoot. Price may spend time carving out a messy range while positioning resets.&rdquo; (If you want the play-by-play of everything behind the whipsaw moves of the last 48 hours, <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/silver-shellacking">Sean&rsquo;s your guy</a>.)
Crypto is gamely trying to stage a comeback, Bitcoin back over $88,000 and Ethereum at $2,967.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Crude is up 1.7% as the war drums beat louder in the Middle East again.
&ldquo;The U.S. is weighing precision strikes on &lsquo;high-value&rsquo; Iranian officials and commanders who it deems responsible for the deaths of protesters,&rdquo; reports Middle East Eye, citing &ldquo;a Gulf official familiar with the discussions.&rdquo;
Judging by the U.S. bombing of Iran last year and the kidnapping of Venezuelan strongman Nicol&aacute;s Maduro this year, Donald Trump is keen for lightning-quick action &mdash; and no U.S. casualties.
If that&rsquo;s not a viable option this time, The Jerusalem Post reports that Washington is considering a blockade on Iranian oil shipments, similar to the one imposed on Venezuela late last year.
But that too comes with considerable risk, as the military analyst Will Schryver tweets&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3ra3da9U457Wa1iQhafooe/ef1c2745699a74c3b7d67a3f5a64dd36/FMF-Issue-01-27-26_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Amid these cross-currents, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate fetches $61.66 &mdash; on the high end of its trading range this month.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Division and Dissension at the Fed
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Paradigm macro maven Jim Rickards is sticking his neck out.
This morning the Federal Reserve began one of its policy-setting meetings held eight times a year. At the conclusion of that meeting tomorrow afternoon, Jim expects the Fed will cut the benchmark fed funds rate another quarter percentage point to 3.5%. (It was 4.5% as recently as last summer.)
This expectation is far outside the consensus. Looking at the action in fed funds futures this morning, traders assign a 97% probability the Fed will &ldquo;pause&rdquo; its recent rate-cutting cycle and hold the rate steady at 3.75%.
Note well: Jim has had a near-perfect record calling both the direction and magnitude of Fed rate moves for the last four years.
At issue this time is &ldquo;Powell&rsquo;s loss of control of his own board,&rdquo; says Jim. Powell favors a quarter percentage point cut, and so do some of his colleagues. But other members of the Fed&rsquo;s Open Market Committee favor a steeper cut of a half percentage point, while others favor leaving the rate where it is now.
&ldquo;The result,&rdquo; says Jim, &ldquo;may be an 8-4 vote in favor of the 0.25% rate cut where the four dissenters are of two different minds &mdash; some supporting a larger cut and some supporting no cut at all.
&ldquo;This nuance will be lost on everyday Americans and the media. All they will see is a large dissenting vote.&rdquo;
Fed chairs have long exercised an iron grip over the other committee members. But now the level of division and dissension is its highest since the 1980s.
The fact Powell is a lame duck only adds to the sense of things flying apart. He&rsquo;s running only three more meetings until his term as chair is up in May &mdash; and that&rsquo;s assuming he doesn&rsquo;t quit early under pressure from Donald Trump.
&ldquo;That can only unsettle markets more than they already are,&rdquo; Jim concludes.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />&ldquo;New and Improved&rdquo; TikTok (Continued&hellip;)
When we left you yesterday&hellip; we took note that under the platform&rsquo;s new U.S.-based majority owners, users were complaining about both an intrusive new terms of service (collecting data on everything from precise location to the user&rsquo;s mental health) and the suppression of news from the &ldquo;For You&rdquo; tab.
Now come accusations that posts about the late financier and sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein are being censored &mdash; which, of course, California Gov. Gavin Newsom glommed onto for partisan advantage&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/64TBX86clEnvy75rioz1CE/22f75d7b82de1c9b381c457b461c31a8/FMF-Issue-01-27-26_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Elsewhere we see widespread complaints that the platform simply isn&rsquo;t available. The Downdetector site tells the BBC it got over 663,000 reports of issues from U.S. users of TikTok starting on Saturday and continuing through yesterday. Other users noticed the videos they uploaded had less visibility than before or were even &ldquo;stuck at zero views.&rdquo;
For its part, TikTok&rsquo;s new U.S. management said yesterday that users might notice "multiple bugs, slower load times or timed-out requests" that it blamed on a power outage at a data center owned by Oracle (which now owns 15% of TikTok).
"While the network has been recovered, the outage caused a cascading systems failure that we've been working to resolve together with our data center partner." it said.
And yet, TikTok seems to be working just fine in the rest of the world, where China-based Bytedance retains majority ownership. Go figure&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: $1.5 Trillion
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;Wow Dave, this issue was exceptional,&rdquo; a reader writes after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/usd1-5-trillion">last Friday&rsquo;s edition</a> exploring the underbelly of the military-industrial complex.
&ldquo;You have addressed most of these points in past issues but this was an extremely well-done piece. It ought to be used as a primer for any class on recent history. No buts. Surely there will be some simpletons who read it as an attack on some of their heroes &mdash; ignore them. You're doing good work, keep it up.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Outstanding 5 Bullets on Jan 23, Dave &mdash; one of your best over the past year,&rdquo; says another. &ldquo;Great to see a little bit of Bill Bonner and libertarian philosophy carried over from Agora into Paradigm Press. Now if you could just convince Jim Rickards and Buck Sexton to read it!&rdquo;
&ldquo;Excellent commentary!&rdquo; enthuses a third. &ldquo;Needed to be spelled out &mdash; you did that very neatly. As good as Chris Campbell &mdash; only different. Thank you.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Love Chris, so that&rsquo;s high praise indeed!
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Not everyone is in accord: &ldquo;Maybe Dave Gonigam is a good managing editor, but he is an awful columnist.
&ldquo;I think I made it to Bullet No. 3 this time &mdash; and that was a struggle.&rdquo;
Dave: I appreciate the very specific feedback, laying out your objections so systematically. It will undoubtedly enable me to do a better job in the future.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;Really good post &mdash; spot-on regarding the assertions,&rdquo; writes our final correspondent &mdash; a longtimer who&rsquo;s not afraid to rake me over the coals now and then.
&ldquo;AND... one thing caught my eye. You presume al-Qaida was responsible for the attacks. Is that so?
&ldquo;Gotta call bull*** on that one, and I imagine you would too if you didn't fear being cast as... god forbid... conspiracy theorists.
&ldquo;Well, I'm an unapologetic conspiracy theorist and conspiracy factist... the Wuhan shots... the rigging of multiple financial markets, especially silver... the Maidan shenanigans... the ballot fraud in the 2020 election. The list goes on for quite a while. My track record of correct calls is pretty much unblemished.
&ldquo;Later you say, correctly: &lsquo;Sept. 11, 2001, was also the day many conservatives abandoned their suspicions of Big Government.&rsquo;
&ldquo;YEAH... THAT WAS THE PRECISE DESIRED EFFECT. Mission accomplished.
&ldquo;Cheney's dead now and I guess it's unseemly to continue my cheering, but what an interesting story he might have been loose enough to tell under the influence of truth serum.
&ldquo;It was an inside job, and only the willfully ignorant or those with an interest in perpetuating the con could possibly disagree, given the overwhelming mountain of evidence.
&ldquo;Most can't admit the truth re: 9/11. It would set their worldview on tilt. I get that and I sympathize, but the truth is the truth, no matter how uncomfortable or inconvenient it is... to coin a phrase.
&ldquo;Again, your analysis is dead on.&rdquo;
Dave: Thank you. I think the already-known and widely acknowledged facts about 9/11 are damning enough &mdash; particularly the involvement of high-level Saudi Arabian officials, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/11/21/911-families-lawsuit-links-saudi-officials-to-plot-despite-princes-denial">about which we continue to learn more</a> 24 years later.
And yet the whole time, U.S. presidents have bowed and scraped before King Fahd, King Abdullah, King Salman and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Obama and Trump aided and abetted a Saudi Arabian genocide in Yemen &mdash; for which someone in Yemen might, one day, decide to hold the American people at large responsible and carry out a large-scale attack on U.S. territory. And the whole cycle would begin anew&hellip;
But on one point I&rsquo;m in full agreement: Every new crisis, whatever its origins, is <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/9-11-the-financial-crisis-and-covid">an excuse for a new power grab</a>. And so it goes.

FMF-Issue-01-27-26(Featured)

NVDA and GOOG: Smart Moves

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Forecast Fulfilled (USAR)
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Uncle Sam&rsquo;s stock-buying spree is moving into an aggressive new phase&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/MwLOFboBFMU5y7MXWoFcB/315da09f9e99687ce131f6b4d97eddd6/FMF-Issue-01-26-26_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
&ldquo;The Trump administration is planning to inject $1.6 billion into an American rare earths company, its biggest investment in the sector,&rdquo; reported the Financial Times on Saturday &mdash; &ldquo;in Washington&rsquo;s latest foray into private industry to shore up supplies of key minerals.&rdquo;
Citing the usual &ldquo;people familiar with the matter,&rdquo; the FT says the Commerce Department will take a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth (USAR). A formal announcement is expected today.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> To be sure, management was dropping hints about this arrangement as long ago as October. We chronicled it right here.
On Thursday Oct. 2, CEO Barbara Humpton told CNBC her company is &ldquo;in close communication&rdquo; with the White House.
CFO Robert Steele was more specific &mdash; saying the government might be &ldquo;a capital source through the combination of loans, grants and other potential opportunities.&rdquo;
Key point: The Pentagon had already taken a 15% stake in another rare-earth player, MP Materials last summer (much to the benefit of many Paradigm Press readers.)
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> All of this is music to the ears of Paradigm readers who took action back in August.
On Thursday Aug. 7, we convened our first &ldquo;All-In Summit.&rdquo;
Our macro maven Jim Rickards&hellip; our AI-and-crypto authority James Altucher&hellip; our trading pro Enrique Abeyta&hellip; all of them were in agreement USAR was a screaming buy.
After management began dropping hints about a deal with the feds in early October, shares began to soar. On Oct. 13, readers were urged to sell half their position for a 191% gain. The timing couldn&rsquo;t have been better; that sell recommendation marked a near-term top.
The rest of the position? Let it ride, readers were told. This is textbook money management &mdash; and it&rsquo;s paying off handsomely. Of course, shares are taking off again this morning &mdash; up 19% in early trade.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/41la5M4yIOukjn66WWqPKc/26a2e65caa7917c52ab017d609c2e571/FMF-Issue-01-26-26_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Whether or not you laid on this trade&hellip; you might naturally wonder when Paradigm&rsquo;s leading lights might come to a consensus on another recommendation with similar potential.
All I can do today is to counsel patience.
The last thing we want to do is force our editors to reach agreement where agreement doesn&rsquo;t really exist just so we can sell more subscriptions. Agreement has to be reached authentically.
That said, I&rsquo;ve been privy to some very interesting backchannel discussions in recent days. Something&rsquo;s in the works that might not be exactly like the USAR recommendation&hellip; but that I think readers will like.
That&rsquo;s all I can say right now without violating any confidences. But watch this space as we move from January into February&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Gold $5K
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;Do you see any bearish catalysts in the near future that would signal an end to the current gold bull market?&rdquo; a reader wrote Jim Rickards last week.
If anything, the question is even more timely this morning. Gold punched decisively through $5,000 when electronic trading opened for the week last night. And just like that, $5,100 is in sight; at last check the bid is up $111 to $5,094. Silver is screaming even higher &mdash; up $8.76 as we write to $111.84.
Jim&rsquo;s answer to Strategic Intelligence readers: &ldquo;No.
&ldquo;The drivers of higher gold prices include net buying by central banks, flat mining output, buying as an alternative to U.S. Treasuries since the U.S. is now stealing Treasury securities from lawful holders such as Russia, the fact that Russia has survived economic sanctions because over 25% of its reserves were held in the form of physical gold and the use of gold by BRICS members as an alternative to the dollar.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s a mouthful &mdash; but it gives you the rough idea that the rally is nowhere near over.
&ldquo;The retail frenzy stage has not yet started but that&rsquo;s coming,&rdquo; says Jim, who still anticipates gold will reach $10,000 before it&rsquo;s all over. Maybe even before year-end 2026.
In the meantime, congratulations are in order for Strategic Intelligence subscribers who bagged a 460% gain on Hecla Mining after a hold time of only seven months. &ldquo;Hard-to-believe gains!&rdquo; a happy reader wrote to the 5 Bullets inbox.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> In the near term, gold&rsquo;s strength over the last year is largely a function of dollar weakness.
The U.S. dollar index &mdash; which measures the greenback against a basket of a half-dozen developed-market currencies &mdash; is down 10% since early 2025. In the world of currencies, that&rsquo;s an earthquake.
And the trend is continuing today amid rumors that Washington will coordinate some sort of action with the Japanese government to support the yen.
It&rsquo;s the Trump administration&rsquo;s policy to weaken the dollar this way. &ldquo;When a government is incentivized to cheapen its currency to monetize its debt, it's madness for investors to fight that policy,&rdquo; Sean Ring writes in today&rsquo;s Rude Awakening. 
&ldquo;Going with the flow is the easiest money you&rsquo;ll ever make.&rdquo;
Which means metals and miners. &ldquo;Gold and silver will continue to rise, maybe with a bump or two along the way,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;And while the miners have performed, they&rsquo;re still priced as if gold is trading at $3,500 and silver is at $40.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Inflation Flashbacks: Is It the &rsquo;70s Again?
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> If history rhymes, the big spike of inflation in 2022 is only a preview of coming attractions.
From our trading pro Enrique Abeyta: &ldquo;Fascinating chart from Bank of America comparing the year-over-year increase in inflation from the 1970s to the most recent period starting in 2018&hellip;&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1bq58gvGKH3r4KhYcpMOfN/039e01a87937d234a872a22f6a70eda3/FMF-Issue-01-26-26_3_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
We caution that &ldquo;analog&rdquo; charts like these are compelling &mdash; but not predictive by definition.
&ldquo;No reason inflation will necessarily follow through and track like it has&hellip; but kind of scary,&rdquo; Enrique allows.
This much is certain: Inflation is proving to be &ldquo;sticky&rdquo; going by the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s preferred gauge, a measure called core PCE. Last week the Commerce Department reported that year-over-year core PCE edged up from 2.7% in October to 2.8% in November.
As we can&rsquo;t remind you often enough&hellip; once the inflation rate sails past 5% as it did in 2022, <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/declare-your-independence-from-inflation">it takes a decade on average</a> to get back to &ldquo;normal&rdquo; 2% levels.
[Editor&rsquo;s note: Enrique shared this chart on the Daily Feed section of the Paradigm Press mobile app &mdash; a place where our editors deliver hot takes on the economy and the markets you won&rsquo;t find anywhere else. It&rsquo;s also an easy way to track your buy and sell alerts without sifting through your email. <a href="https://d2z65klgtz99km.cloudfront.net/PPG-App/">Download here</a>.]
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> As earnings season moves into high gear, the major U.S. stock market indexes are starting the week in the green.
Several of the &ldquo;Magnificent 7&rdquo; companies report their numbers this week as well as a slew of financial, industrial and energy names.
But that&rsquo;s not till Wednesday. For the moment, the S&amp;P 500 is up a half percent on the day to 6,951. The Nasdaq&rsquo;s gain is stronger, the Dow&rsquo;s weaker.
Elsewhere, crypto continues to hurt, Bitcoin at $87,307 and Ethereum just under $3,000. &ldquo;Until crypto can string together some winning sessions, it&rsquo;s looking like lower for longer will be the story,&rdquo; writes Greg Guenthner at The Trading Desk.
Crude has pulled back slightly to $60.61. Traders bid up oil late last week because they didn&rsquo;t want to be &ldquo;short&rdquo; going into a weekend when there was the possibility of a new U.S. attack on Iran. But that didn&rsquo;t come to pass, so now oil is selling off.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> In contrast, electricity prices are surging in areas affected by the big winter storm. 
&ldquo;Real-time wholesale electricity prices &zwj;topped $1,800 per MWh early Sunday &zwj;in Dominion Energy&rsquo;s &zwj;Virginia territory,&rdquo; reports CNBC &mdash; &ldquo;up from $200 per MWh on Saturday morning. Virginia houses the largest cluster of data centers in the world.&rdquo;
The regional grid operator PJM expects record wintertime demand tomorrow as the storm is followed by a cold snap. With that in mind, PJM &ldquo;is pushing power plants to secure natural gas supplies through the week,&rdquo; reports Bloomberg.
Specifically PJM &ldquo;is taking a rare step of committing to buy power from generators through 10 a.m. on Jan. 31, as opposed to its typical method of making day-ahead purchases.&rdquo;
As such, PJM anticipates it will be able to avert rolling blackouts.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The &ldquo;New and Improved&rdquo; TikTok
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> TikTok is now under U.S. control &mdash; and users are noticing. They&rsquo;re not happy.
The long-anticipated sale was consummated last Thursday, China-based ByteDance retaining 19.9% ownership.
The new arrangement complies with a 2024 law that ordered TikTok to shut down unless ByteDance sold. The other 80.1% will be owned by a group of investors including Oracle and the Emirati investment firm MGX.
No sooner did the deal close than TikTok &ldquo;made changes to its privacy policy that include expanding the type of location data the company can collect from its 200 million American users,&rdquo; reports the BBC.
&ldquo;The new joint venture said in its updated privacy terms that it may now &lsquo;collect precise location data, depending on your settings&rsquo; - a change from the previous policy which allowed for the collection of &lsquo;approximate&rsquo; location data.&rdquo;
And there&rsquo;s more, as shown in this screenshot making the rounds on other social media platforms&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5FChLvqLVXxHqgb7oRnn4e/dde4570edd78a5bb925e0d17a496ac8c/FMF-Issue-01-26-26_4_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" />Beyond the terms of service, the user experience is also changing in a big way.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7sZdaYY9kZ0d7GT79VUClL/cf4317f78c6c0fba750f01aed466269a/FMF-Issue-01-26-26_5_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
To be clear, he&rsquo;s talking about the &ldquo;For You&rdquo; tab. News is still available if that&rsquo;s what you want &mdash; but you have to search for a specific topic.
Love it. The whole rationale in Congress for lowering the boom on TikTok was that the Chinese government was spying on and propagandizing TikTok&rsquo;s U.S. users. (There was never any evidence to support that claim.)
But now that Oracle&rsquo;s Larry Ellison is large and in charge, it&rsquo;s just peachy keen to hoover up location data and anything users disclose about, say, their mental health &mdash; while at the same time suppressing vigorous dialogue about the issues of the day.
Reminder: Ellison <a href="https://x.com/jimstewartson/status/2002457225726759218">can&rsquo;t wait</a> for the arrival of a surveillance state where &ldquo;citizens will be on their best behavior because we&rsquo;re constantly recording everything that&rsquo;s going on.&rdquo;
<ul>
<li>Still unclear is whether this change to the algorithm is slamming <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/small-business-under-threat-again">small businesses</a> that rely on TikTok to sell their wares. (If you&rsquo;re a small-business owner with any insight, please write: <a href="mailto:feedback@paradigmpressroom.com">feedback@paradigmpressroom.com</a>)</li>
</ul>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Gratitude
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> From the mailbag comes this item submitted by a reader who joined Paradigm last August at the time of our All-In Summit. Presumably he&rsquo;s faring handsomely from the editors&rsquo; USAR recommendation&hellip;
&ldquo;Hi Dave and Emily &mdash; I just retired last year and with that I took over my wife's and my portfolio to try and make sure that we have enough to get by. In doing so, we stumbled on Paradigm through a circuitous route. I don't normally reach out like this, but with the storm coming, I feel uncommonly grateful this morning.
&ldquo;Grateful that we have a home, a full tank of oil, some really good friends we could lean on if things got tough, some amazingly beautiful human beings as adult children and even enough food.
&ldquo;With that being said, I wanted to let you both know that in these CRAZY times, I appreciate your thoughtful, well-written articles. I know you get pushback from some people (refer to: CRAZY times), but I wanted to let you know that I'm a fan. Keep up the good work.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Emily and I are blown away by your kindness. Thank you. (And stay warm wherever you are.)
Like any business, we have certain metrics that we follow and numerical goals we aim to meet. But a note like yours reminds us that as long as we empower satisfied customers like you&hellip; the numbers will take care of themselves.

FMF-Issue-01-26-26(Featured)

Forecast Fulfilled (USAR)

FMF-Issue-01-23-26(Featured)

$1.5 Trillion 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Fed Fallout: Main Character Energy
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;This is how monetary policy is made in emerging markets with weak institutions.&rdquo;
That sentence appeared in a joint public statement released this month by former Federal Reserve chairs &mdash; including Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan &mdash; responding to the Justice Department opening a criminal inquiry into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Such tactics, they say high-handedly, have &ldquo;highly negative consequences for inflation and the functioning of [economies] more broadly&hellip; It has no place in the United States, whose greatest strength is the rule of law, which is at the foundation of our economic success.&rdquo;
Days later, President Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos: &ldquo;I&rsquo;ll be announcing a new Fed chairman in the not too distant future,&rdquo; adding &ldquo;we have a terrible chairman right now.&rdquo;
The reaction from the Davos set was swift &mdash; and anxious. Which is understandable. But it also invites a reality check.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Federal Reserve independence has never been absolute. Presidents have pressured central bankers for as long as the institution has existed.
In the 1960s, for instance, President Lyndon B. Johnson physically manhandled Fed chair William McChesney Martin over interest rates.
Martin&rsquo;s successor, Arthur Burns, accommodated President Richard Nixon ahead of the 1972 election, a decision that helped fuel the inflationary mess of the 1970s.
More recently, President Joe Biden publicly reminded Powell that getting inflation under control rested squarely on the Fed.
&ldquo;To this day the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks are owned privately by the banks in each region,&rdquo; Jim Rickards notes. &ldquo;Direction is provided by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System appointed by the U.S. president and based in Washington, D.C.
<a href="https://5minforecast.com/2023/05/16/aftershock/">&ldquo;The overall system</a> is a perfect hybrid of public and private interests.&rdquo;
So the idea that Trump has shattered some previously pristine norm is overstated. What has changed is the scale of the Fed&rsquo;s power &mdash; and the consequences of wielding it so openly.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> After the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed and its global peers crossed lines that once seemed uncrossable. 
Policy rates fell to zero or below. Quantitative easing (QE) expanded central-bank balance sheets by trillions. The European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan all followed similar paths.
Markets responded exactly as intended. Asset prices soared, borrowing costs collapsed and governments discovered they could finance deficits cheaply and almost indefinitely .
The lesson for elected officials was unavoidable: Monetary policy could stimulate the economy faster and more forcefully than fiscal policy ever could.
As Eric Salzman writes at Racket News, that lesson dramatically increased the temptation to influence the Fed:
<blockquote>By deploying extraordinary monetary policy from 2008&ndash;2018 and then from 2020&ndash;2022, the Fed has shown every president, both present and future, that those powers can juice the economy in ways that fiscal policy can rarely match.</blockquote>
Once a central bank demonstrates it can move markets with a sentence, presidents inevitably care who holds the microphone at post-FOMC press conferences.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> That microphone amplified under Alan Greenspan &mdash; nickname: &ldquo;the Maestro&rdquo; &mdash; whose tenure marked the Fed&rsquo;s brush with mainstream celebrity. 
And it reached a fever pitch after the financial crisis of 2008 when Ben Bernanke rewrote the central-bank playbook with zero rates, massive asset purchases and a banking-system bailout &mdash; later memorialized in Bernanke&rsquo;s self-aggrandizing memoir.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1FrGZMDDlC1mdwR6pNcyLM/ad46eb5e3ff4e71c5d985821ff0187d6/FMF-Issue-01-22-26_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" /> Bernanke&rsquo;s book advance has never been disclosed&hellip;
From that point forward, the Fed was no longer just a regulator. It had, to quote the kids, main character energy.
FOMC meetings became national events, press conferences were parsed like earnings calls and regional Fed presidents became media fixtures. They traveled to Davos and Jackson Hole not as technicians, but as global figures.
This visibility was not imposed on the Fed. It was chosen. And once chosen, independence became harder to defend. A central bank that cultivates such attention cannot plausibly claim insulation from politics.
That&rsquo;s the missing context behind the Lisa Cook case.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> When Trump moved to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook for cause &mdash; citing alleged mortgage fraud &mdash; Cook refused to leave, setting off a legal fight now before the Supreme Court. 
This week, SCOTUS heard arguments in the case. The justices&rsquo; questions signaled real discomfort with the idea that a president could unilaterally declare &ldquo;cause&rdquo; under the Federal Reserve Act.
For now, Cook remains on the job while the courts sort it out. (It&rsquo;s fair to note that no court has ruled that Cook committed mortgage fraud for two homes purchased in 2021.)
But the episode exposes the Fed&rsquo;s real vulnerability. This is the price of prominence. A quieter Fed &mdash; one that operated without the aura of omnipotence &mdash; might be harder to target. (Perhaps Ms. Cook&rsquo;s mortgage paperwork would not have drawn this level of attention?)
True, the Fed has never been truly independent from politics. Presidents have always leaned on, nudged and sometimes even shoved.
But what changed after 2008 is the Fed showed off how much it can do &mdash; indefinite QE, asset purchases, full-spectrum market support &mdash; and then built a public ritual around that power.
With power came attention. And power and attention invite attempts to control the institution &mdash; whether through nominations, investigations or court fights.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Bond Exit, Stock Stampede
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;While foreigners may be SELLING AMERICAN bonds, they appear to be BUYING AMERICAN stocks!&rdquo; pro trader Enrique Abeyta emphasizes.
We touched on bonds earlier this week &mdash; using <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-price-cap-trap#3">China</a> as a clear example. Compared with January 2025, China&rsquo;s Treasury exposure is now nearly 10% lower.
&ldquo;Foreign-held U.S. equities as a percentage of foreign-held assets is at a new all-time high, breaking the previous record set back in 1968,&rdquo; Enrique notes.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6akfryh2978qE11ARv6Vvb/a1e57e51363d1184082cec3da9a86fde/FMF-Issue-01-22-26_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" /> Source: NDR Inc.
Stocks are setting up nicely this afternoon. The Nasdaq&rsquo;s up 1% to 23,460 while the Dow and S&amp;P 500 are up 0.80% and 0.65% respectively.
As for crude, it&rsquo;s down 2%, under $60 for a barrel of WTI. But gold and silver are scorching hot! At record-breaking prices, in fact. Gold&rsquo;s up 1.70% to $4,920 per ounce, and silver&rsquo;s up 3.70% to $95.
The crypto market, however, is seeing red. Bitcoin&rsquo;s down 0.40% to $89,500 while Ethereum&rsquo;s down 2.45% to $2,945.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The New Gold Order
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> For most of the modern era, gold pricing power rested firmly in the West.
&ldquo;The world&rsquo;s gold trade revolved around two cities: London and New York,&rdquo; says Fiore Group CEO Frank Giustra. Those markets &mdash; anchored by the London Bullion Market Association and New York&rsquo;s futures exchange (COMEX) &mdash; set prices for bullion across the globe.
Giustra&rsquo;s career unfolded inside that system. In the 1980s, he moved to London to help finance junior mining companies, raising capital as European institutions piled into gold. The structure was clear and dollar-centric.
&ldquo;The prices you see ticking across your screen today &mdash; &lsquo;spot gold&rsquo; and &lsquo;gold futures&rsquo; &mdash; still come from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and COMEX,&rdquo; he writes. Every ounce, regardless of origin, was priced in U.S. dollars.
That dominance was a legacy of Bretton Woods. In 1944, the dollar was pegged to gold at $35 an ounce, reflecting the United States&rsquo; postwar stockpile and economic strength. When President Richard Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, the system shifted to pure fiat.
As Giustra puts it, the message became: &ldquo;Trust us &mdash; our economy&rsquo;s strong, and our money&rsquo;s as good as gold.&rdquo; The petrodollar system, meanwhile, kept the dollar on top.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The first serious challenge emerged in 2002, when China launched the Shanghai Gold Exchange. It introduced something missing from Western markets: mandatory physical delivery.
While Giustra estimates around 95% of trades on COMEX are paper contracts, Shanghai required real bullion to change hands, at least domestically.
But China went further in 2014 with the Shanghai International Gold Exchange, allowing foreign participants to trade gold in yuan rather than dollars. In 2016, it introduced the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price, a daily yuan-denominated auction. For the first time in a century, London had a serious counterpart.
Global events amplified the shift. The 2008 financial crisis exposed the fragility of leverage and monetary expansion. COVID-era stimulus accelerated it. Then, in 2022, the freezing of Russian reserves forced other nations to ask, as Giustra observes: &ldquo;What if we&rsquo;re next?&rdquo; Central banks responded by buying physical gold and reducing reliance on dollar assets.
The result has been a slow rebalancing. &ldquo;The Shanghai Gold Exchange won&rsquo;t replace COMEX or LBMA overnight,&rdquo; Giustra says, &ldquo;and the dollar won&rsquo;t vanish tomorrow.&rdquo; Still, every trade settled in yuan and every bar vaulted outside Western control marks a subtle transfer of power.
Giustra is a long-time power broker in mining and metals; he&rsquo;s been around these markets long enough to recognize structural change when he sees it. If gold is quietly reclaiming its role as real money, Shanghai &mdash; not London or New York &mdash; may be the future.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />&ldquo;AI Tax&rdquo; (Not What You Think)
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> A study of 5,000 white-collar workers by the AI consulting firm Section finds a striking disconnect between executives and employees when using the AI tools. 
Two-thirds of nonmanagement employees respond AI saves them less than two hours per week &mdash; or no time at all. More than 40% of executives, meanwhile, report saving over eight hours a week.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5J0IyuaOEoZcSlybrelDl7/b2d3b1ce6d7914a4a5b7a4a642aa3dbc/FMF-Issue-01-22-26_3_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" /> Source: Section, Stephanie Stamm, Wall Street Journal
&ldquo;Executives automatically assume AI is going to be the savior,&rdquo; says Steve McGarvey, a user-experience designer in Raleigh, N.C. &ldquo;I can&rsquo;t count the number of times that I&rsquo;ve sought a solution for a problem, asked an LLM and it gave me a solution [that] was completely wrong.&rdquo;
McGarvey says AI helps with research &mdash; but only if you already know enough to spot when it&rsquo;s wrong. &ldquo;Unless you have some judgment or discernment in the field you&rsquo;re in,&rdquo; he adds, &ldquo;you could really do harm.&rdquo;
That friction has a cost. A report from Workday calls it an &ldquo;AI tax&rdquo; on productivity: time saved, then quietly spent correcting errors. Even at the top, the payoff remains elusive. In a PricewaterhouseCoopers survey presented at Davos, just 12% of CEOs say AI delivered both cost savings and revenue gains.
But some companies have already tested AI&rsquo;s limits. And then re-tested. Klarna replaced hundreds of customer-service agents with AI &mdash; then rehired humans for harder questions. Duolingo said AI would replace contractors, then ended 2024 with a 14% larger staff.
Bottom line: Workers aren&rsquo;t impressed. To wit, 40% of respondents say they&rsquo;d be fine never using AI again.
[At the Paradigm app&rsquo;s Daily Feed, our managing editor Dave Gonigam commented on this story: &ldquo;Somewhere in the Great Beyond, Dilbert creator Scott Adams is having a hearty laugh.&rdquo;
Haven&rsquo;t downloaded the app yet? Join thousands of your fellow Paradigm subscribers at the instructions <a href="https://d2z65klgtz99km.cloudfront.net/PPG-App/">right here.</a>]
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Trump 2.0
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;Better off,&rdquo; a longtime reader responds to Trump&rsquo;s assessment. &ldquo;Over the last three years, as octogenarians, we assiduously eliminated all debt, including the home equity loan.
&ldquo;Then we sold municipals and converted to energy and miners with reinvested dividends. We are steadily adding to our net worth every month. We feel more secure now than we did one&ndash;three years ago. Guidance from Paradigm has been a great help.&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;I am financially worse off,&rdquo; says another contributor. &ldquo;As a retiree, the rising costs of food, Medicare and onerous taxes are hurting me. 
&ldquo;I am totally irritated that the Social Security miserly increases are completely wiped out just by the increases in Medicare costs. But the real kicker to me is the money in both Social Security and Medicare is MY money.
&ldquo;I worked for 40 years, made over six figures and maxed out my 401(k) yearly. I should be living comfortably, but I have to pull from my retirement monthly just to stay in my home. We've given up eating out, vacations, concerts and theater.
&ldquo;I understand how policies Trump is working to institute will help our country; it just may be too late for me.&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;Has the Trump 2.0 administration made me better off than I was a year ago?&rdquo; adds our final correspondent today.
&ldquo;Financially, yes. But only because his immigration policy has opened up thousands of jobs in
detention operations. A new detention facility opened up in my state, and I was able get a
job that pays 50% more under a federal contract than what I was making in the same position
working in a state-run prison. Not everyone is so fortunate.
&ldquo;As for his economic policies, I agree that capping interest rates is a VERY BAD idea. The jury is
still out on all of his tariffs, and will be for some time. I remain optimistic that the long-term
gain will be worth the (hopefully) short-term pain.
&ldquo;Of course, the above goes out the window if his foreign policy gets us all incinerated.&rdquo;
Thanks to everyone who took the time to write in &mdash; the notes, stories and perspectives are genuinely appreciated.
More soon&hellip; And thanks for being part of the 5 Bullets family!

FMF-Issue-01-22-26(Featured)

Main Character Monetary Policy

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" /> Markets love a villain.
This week&rsquo;s villain, according to the mainstream narrative, is Greenland &mdash; or rather, the idea that the U.S. administration&rsquo;s trade posture is spooking global investors. That story is neat, politically satisfying&hellip; but wrong?
Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said something revealing &mdash; and far less convenient &mdash; when asked about the sudden volatility in global markets.
<blockquote>The Japanese bond market had a six-standard deviation move for the past two days. That would be in their 10-year bonds. I&rsquo;ve been in touch with my economic counterparts in Japan, and urged them to take the necessary measures to stabilize their bond market. </blockquote>
<blockquote>But that&rsquo;s spilling over into all bond markets. German yields are up. French yields are up. U.S. yields are up. Again, it&rsquo;s mostly the Japanese bond market. It&rsquo;s got nothing to do with Greenland.</blockquote>
Of course, Bessent is speaking in the administration&rsquo;s self-interest. But what if he&rsquo;s right?
To understand why he might be, you have to look past headlines and into the scaffolding of global markets &mdash; specifically, the quiet role Japan has played in financing risk around the world.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;For years, global markets have been floating on something they barely talk about,&rdquo; writes Sean Ring, editor of The Rude Awakening. &ldquo;No, not earnings. Or productivity. Try this: cheap yen.&rdquo;
For decades after Japan&rsquo;s 1989 stock market collapse, the Bank of Japan held interest rates near zero, turning the yen into the world&rsquo;s cheapest and most predictable source of borrowing.
Global investors borrowed yen, converted it into other currencies including dollars and euros and invested in higher-return assets abroad.
The power of this yen carry trade was the cheap, steady funding behind it. As long as borrowing costs stayed low and stable, the trade worked.
But that stability is now under strain.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Recently, Japan&rsquo;s 10-year government bond yield has surged to 2.34% &mdash; a level not seen in over 25 years.
&ldquo;To Americans used to 4&ndash;5% Treasuries, [that] might not sound dramatic,&rdquo; Sean adds, &ldquo;but in Japan it&rsquo;s seismic.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1c5JZrjMsi028vw7xk6bss/a3f9c218fb290e1acf3358202a0fb225/FMF-Issue-01-21-26_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" /> Sean: &ldquo;This is not the gold chart. It&rsquo;s the Japanese 10-year yield.&rdquo;
Japan carries public debt well north of 250% of GDP. Its fiscal system functions because interest costs have long been suppressed. But when yields rise, markets start asking questions that haven&rsquo;t mattered in years.
&ldquo;Borrowing in yen is no longer free,&rdquo; Sean writes. &ldquo;What&rsquo;s worse is that it&rsquo;s no longer predictable.&rdquo; That uncertainty is lethal to leveraged trades.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> Complicating matters further, Japan is dealing with a weak yen. 
Higher bond yields usually strengthen a country&rsquo;s currency. But despite rising yields, the yen remains historically weak as markets weigh Japan&rsquo;s shifting fiscal policy.&nbsp;
Notably, the yen carry trade relies on thin margins. Investors borrow cheaply in one currency and invest elsewhere, assuming exchange rates won&rsquo;t move sharply against them. The real risk isn&rsquo;t that the yen stays weak &mdash; it&rsquo;s that it suddenly strengthens.
If that happens, borrowing costs jump immediately. Losses appear quickly. Brokers issue margin calls, demanding fresh cash or collateral to offset losses. Positions are closed under pressure.
When carry trades unwind? &ldquo;They die,&rdquo; Sean says. &ldquo;Violently.&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> An unwind of the yen carry trade spreads far beyond Japan. It shows up in portfolios everywhere. Estimates of yen carry trade exposure run into the trillions of dollars; even a partial unwind can move markets fast.
And the sequence of events follows a typical pattern:
<ul>
<li>Japanese bond volatility spikes</li>
<li>Funding assumptions break</li>
<li>And leveraged traders face margin pressure.</li>
</ul>
They sell whatever they can &mdash; not because something is wrong with those assets, but because those assets are liquid. &ldquo;U.S. equities&hellip; Emerging-market ETFs&hellip; Crypto,&rdquo; Sean says. &ldquo;They just happen to be the piggy bank.&rdquo;
This is why these episodes seem arbitrary. &ldquo;Earnings didn&rsquo;t collapse. Consumers didn&rsquo;t suddenly stop spending.&rdquo; Instead, a hidden spigot quietly turns off.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The 2024 Warning Shot
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> If this all feels familiar, it should. In the summer of 2024, global markets seized up after a Bank of Japan rate hike &mdash; and, more importantly, signals that more tightening could follow.
After a quarter century of near-zero rates, many investors had built portfolios on the assumption that yen funding would always be available. When that assumption wobbled, assets around the world were sold to close positions.
As our managing editor Dave Gonigam wrote in the aftermath, the <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/apology-from-tokyo">subtext from Tokyo</a> was essentially: &ldquo;We&rsquo;re really sorry about screwing up global markets for three days.&rdquo;
The Wall Street Journal that day: &ldquo;A week after Japan&rsquo;s top central banker shook up global markets with comments about raising interest rates, one of his deputies walked them back [and] promised not to raise rates when markets are unstable.&rdquo;
That reassurance worked. Selling pressure eased. Markets stabilized. What didn&rsquo;t change was the underlying dependence on cheap yen funding.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> This isn&rsquo;t about Japan &ldquo;screwing up&rdquo; the world. &ldquo;Japan is the match, not the gasoline,&rdquo; says Sean.
&ldquo;The gasoline is global leverage built on cheap funding&rdquo; in a market already &ldquo;priced for perfection,&rdquo; Sean says wryly &mdash; where assets are expensive, the reward for taking risk is thin and many investors are crowded into the same trades.
&ldquo;Wall Street,&rdquo; Sean concludes, &ldquo;never prices this stuff in until it has to.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s why Bessent&rsquo;s comment matters. If this volatility were truly about Greenland or tariffs, you&rsquo;d expect a contained reaction.
What we&rsquo;re seeing instead is broader stress &mdash; the signature of funding problems, not trade headlines.
When the quiet engines that support risk assets start to sputter, markets test them. Hard. That doesn&rsquo;t mean collapse is imminent. It does mean a hidden support beam is cracking.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> The U.S. stock market&rsquo;s in recovery mode today. The three major indexes have flipped to green, with the Dow up 0.60% to 48,785&hellip; the S&amp;P 500 up 0.50% to 6,830&hellip; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 0.35% to 23,035. (As we understand it, Trump says U.S. military intervention in Greenland is off the table.)
For the most part, commodities are likewise in green territory. The price of oil&rsquo;s up 0.65% to $60.75 for a barrel of West Texas crude. At the same time, gold&rsquo;s marching higher: up 1.65% to $4,845.70 per ounce. Silver, on the other hand, has pulled back 1.60%, but still above $93.
The crypto market, however, is getting clobbered. Bitcoin&rsquo;s down 1.35% to $88,300 while Ethereum&rsquo;s slipped 2.50% to $2,920.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />China&rsquo;s Cold Reality
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> China can build all the solar panels it wants. But the country still runs on coal.
In 2024, coal supplied about 60% of China&rsquo;s primary energy, with oil around 20% and natural gas around 9&ndash;10%, according to the IEA and EIA.
<ul>
<li>China&rsquo;s dependence on coal is not merely large &mdash; it&rsquo;s historically unprecedented. The country now burns about 56% of all coal consumed globally, roughly twenty times the combined usage of the European Union</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Since 2000, China has tripled its coal consumption. The increase alone over that period is eight times larger than total U.S. coal use today.</li>
</ul>
Whatever China&rsquo;s climate ambitions may be, its energy system remains overwhelmingly carbon-intensive.
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> And yet Western media coverage routinely portrays China as a climate leader. 
This tendency has intensified since Donald Trump returned to the White House, as comparisons between U.S. rhetoric and Chinese industrial policy have become a narrative device.
In late September, for instance, major media outlets framed China&rsquo;s incremental climate gestures as meaningful progress &ldquo;next to Trump&rsquo;s retreat.&rdquo; Early this month, Foreign Policy went further, asking whether China could &ldquo;replace an absent America in the climate fight.&rdquo;
One passage from that article neatly captures the prevailing view: Chinese officials, it argues, &ldquo;never bought the argument that emissions reductions would cause economic harm,&rdquo; instead embracing clean technology as a defining industry of the 21st century.
The problem is not that this statement is false. It&rsquo;s that it&rsquo;s incomplete to the point of being misleading. Chinese officials never feared economic damage from emissions reductions &mdash; because they have never meaningfully reduced emissions.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/bBNBsbxjAE0Mw6OdhIUH7/fe9c51cb87f477254c0dfb7f867fba09/FMF-Issue-01-21-26_2_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" /> Source: Statistical Review of World Energy, Doomberg
On the contrary, China has continued expanding coal production, approving new coal plants and increasing total fossil-fuel consumption even as it dominates global manufacturing of solar panels, batteries and wind turbines.
The confusion deepened in October, when the British think tank Ember released its midyear review of global electricity trends. Headlines quickly followed, proclaiming that renewables had overtaken coal in global power generation and that China&rsquo;s &ldquo;clean energy growth&rdquo; was driving an irreversible transition.
But Ember&rsquo;s claims apply narrowly to electricity generation, not total energy use &mdash; and only over a six-month window. Coal remains indispensable to China&rsquo;s industrial economy, heavy manufacturing, steelmaking and chemical production. Electricity statistics do not capture those realities.
China is building renewables at scale. It is also burning more coal than the rest of the world combined. Both can be true at the same time &mdash; and they are.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Quiet Luxury?
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> First-class is supposed to be the airline&rsquo;s show pony &mdash; the partitioned place where things are more refined and faintly aspirational.
Which is why the meal shared by X user and imaging scientist Peyman Milanfar didn&rsquo;t land. Flying first-class on United Airlines, Milanfar posted a photo of what was described as a &ldquo;salad.&rdquo;
The bowl was full &mdash; no shrinkflation here &mdash; but the contents were gravely unappetizing&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5LisCYig63cLBwKsZI6Pug/911d8872702112eb129ca84ab141ffdd/FMF-Issue-01-21-26_3_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
In an era of higher fares, airline food has become emblematic &mdash; a reminder that paying more no longer guarantees better. Starting with the meal.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Trump&rsquo;s Report Card
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;Reading The 5 had me recapping 2025. It&rsquo;s been a mixed bag for me,&rdquo; says our first contributor today.
&ldquo;Bad:
<ul>
<li>I work for a government contractor. DOGE activities resulted in many cancelled contracts, and the company laid off 20% of its workforce</li>
<li>Despite the above, the government is still spending way more than it receives in revenues</li>
<li>Lots of large pendulum swings with markets</li>
<li>Where is the accountability for the sins of the past?</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;Good:
<ul>
<li>Lower taxes</li>
<li>Enforcement of immigration laws</li>
<li>Lower gasoline prices (not so much with anything else, though).</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;Generally, I have been OK financially because I got lucky and avoided the layoff ax, but it was close. I just don&rsquo;t understand how DOGE caused all that uproar yet the government is still spending like a drunken sailor.
&ldquo;People in the U.S. have to suffer immensely, I guess, before they actually vote out the fraudsters in Congress.&rdquo;
<img class="intrinsic" style="float: left; display: block;" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" align="left" /> &ldquo;A high-energy, business-savvy patriot without career political baggage has replaced a ruinous puppet as leader of the free world,&rdquo; writes an optimistic contributor.
&ldquo;America's future &mdash; including AI and reshoring &mdash; appears unprecedentedly bright, despite China, Russia and Iran. Investing in Rickards&rsquo; opportunities has proven very beneficial.&rdquo;
We love hearing that Rickards&rsquo; trades have made a measurable difference! And we&rsquo;re thrilled by the volume of your replies, grading Trump&rsquo;s presidency, one year into his second term.
If you didn&rsquo;t get a chance to write in, feel free &mdash; <a href="mailto:feedback@paradigmpressroom.com">the inbox is always open.</a>