This morning, we&rsquo;re broadcasting more never-before-seen footage from Paradigm&rsquo;s meeting of the minds in Baltimore on December 12.
In this ten-minute segment, colleague Chris Cimorelli of our Microcap Millionaire service explains how the next revolutionary tech stock also happens to be&hellip;
&hellip; the best-performing stock of all time. 
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A quantum leap in computing is on the horizon, Chris tells us, comparing this game-changing scenario to the transistor&rsquo;s replacement of the vacuum tube. But on a much grander scale.
While other Big Tech companies are in the race, Chris reveals why ONE company is poised to lead the quantum revolution.
Uncover this groundbreaking information before the race truly escalates in 2025&hellip;
Best regards,
Emily Clancy Paradigm Pressroom&rsquo;s 5 Bullets

chris-presentation

mobile masthead 5MIN

Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

A quantum leap in computing is on the horizon, colleague Chris Cimorelli explains. 

The Race to Quantum Computing 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Venezuela: It&rsquo;s Not About Drugs
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />An American regime-change war in Venezuela, if it comes, will not be about drugs. 
Asked yesterday about sending in U.S. troops, the president said, &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t rule out that. I don&rsquo;t rule out anything.&rdquo;
On the other hand, he said the day before that his administration &ldquo;may be having some discussions&rdquo; with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Whatever the case, a sizable American armada is massed off Venezuela&rsquo;s coast, led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Trump and his advisers &ldquo;have to do something big to justify this massive deployment of forces, and they have to do it SOON,&rdquo; tweets the military analyst William Schryver.
&ldquo;As in, within hours or a few days at most. They can't just hang out for weeks blowing up little boats with Reaper drones.
&ldquo;And if all they planned on doing was launching a few dozen Tomahawks at various targets in Venezuela, they would not have a carrier strike group and an amphibious ready group in the mix.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The parallels to the Iraq War that began in 2003 are many &mdash; and disturbing.
Take it from retired Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski. She was the Pentagon insider who, weeks after the war began, started blowing the whistle on the officials who peddled the most outrageous lies before the war.
&ldquo;In a world where government lies may be easily refuted in seconds, Trump&rsquo;s initiation of war for Venezuelan oil and resources presented as a war on drugs and made-up narco-terror is as illegal as it is embarrassing,&rdquo; Kwiatkowski tells the Eisenhower Media Network.
Adds the retired but tireless Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas): &ldquo;The Saddam Hussein WMD factories of 2002 have become the Nicolas Maduro cocaine and fentanyl factories of 2025 and once again the neocon war lies are amplified by the U.S. mainstream media and transmitted to the American people.
&ldquo;A new disaster is in the making. The &lsquo;global war on terror&rsquo; has been rebranded the &lsquo;hemispheric war on narco-terror&rsquo; and the U.S. military industrial complex is rubbing its hands in anticipation of a windfall.&rdquo;
But not just the military industrial complex. Time to follow the money&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The nice thing is, they&rsquo;ve got plenty of natural resources,&rdquo; says Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) &mdash; speaking of Venezuela.
In their more candid moments, D.C.&rsquo;s regime-change crowd is upfront about their aims. Drugs? What drugs?
&ldquo;In a democracy in Venezuela, their resources are massive,&rdquo; Scott tells the Semafor site, &ldquo;so there&rsquo;ll be a lot of people who want to invest.&rdquo;
Adds the reliably warmongering Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina): &ldquo;There&rsquo;ll be a lot of business going to Venezuela, I think, if you had a better business environment.&rdquo;
Semafor reports that &ldquo;During last month&rsquo;s IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, Barclays organized a private meeting to talk investment opportunities with Venezuelan opposition leader Mar&iacute;a Corina Machado.&rdquo;
At the same time, the investment bank UBS assembled an eight-page memo &ldquo;visualizing the day after tomorrow&rdquo; in Venezuela. Citing the country&rsquo;s oil reserves, its &ldquo;fertile soil&rdquo; and &ldquo;severely underutilized economy,&rdquo; the report says &ldquo;Venezuela&rsquo;s transition away from Chavismo could unlock major opportunities.&rdquo; (Chavismo refers to the socialist platform of Venezuela&rsquo;s president Hugo Chavez, who died in 2013. Maduro was his chosen successor.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Perhaps the most aggressive proponent of regime change in Venezuela has been Exxon Mobil and think tanks funded by the oil company,&rdquo; writes Harrison Berger for The American Conservative.
Venezuela is home to the world&rsquo;s biggest oil deposits &mdash; the thick and sulfurous kind of crude that American refineries are built to process.
Exxon donates at least $250,000 a year to the Center for Strategic and International Studies &mdash; &ldquo;which frequently hosts conferences with Washington&rsquo;s various handpicked Venezuelan leaders,&rdquo; Berger writes. &ldquo;Such think tanks advocate maximum-pressure sanctions and market regime-change war in Venezuela as &lsquo;democracy promotion.&rsquo;&rdquo; Exxon CEO Darren Woods serves on CSIS&rsquo; board.
Venezuela is also home to significant deposits of rare earth elements &mdash; those minerals with unpronounceable names that are essential to everything from your smartphone to fighter jets. Due in part to decades of poor decision-making in Washington, China presently accounts for 70% of global rare-earth mining.
So there you go. Venezuela is not about drugs. It&rsquo;s about a resource grab.
And the moneymaking possibilities? They&rsquo;re highly theoretical at this stage. The investment banks are operating on the assumption that regime change in Venezuela will be &mdash; to use that infamous term from Iraq &mdash; a &ldquo;cakewalk.&rdquo;
As in Iraq, that assumption could be proven catastrophically wrong.
More about that tomorrow, or perhaps later this week. We have other business to tend to&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />About the &ldquo;AI Bubble&rdquo;...
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Here we go again with mainstream nonsense: &ldquo;AI Bubble Fears Hammer Stocks for Fourth Straight Session&rdquo; says a Wall Street Journal alert on your editor&rsquo;s iPad.
In the first place, the part about the &ldquo;fourth straight session&rdquo; isn&rsquo;t even true. The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq were more or less flat on Friday. But they did tumble on Thursday, and again after we hit &ldquo;send&rdquo; on yesterday&rsquo;s edition, and so far today as well.
The &ldquo;AI bubble&rdquo; chatter is a convenient narrative the media have latched onto. The reality is that the market was overstretched. A pullback of 5% is a perfectly normal occurrence, and we haven&rsquo;t had that since the &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; scare in April.
In fact, we&rsquo;re still not there now: The S&amp;P 500 sits a little over 6,600 as we write, down another 1% on the day. The index would have to fall another 55 points to be down 5% from its record close on Oct. 28.
Just some perspective. Nvidia&rsquo;s earnings release after the close tomorrow could flip the media&rsquo;s narrative in an instant.
Among the big movers today is Cloudflare Inc. (NET) &mdash; a major provider of web-hosting services. If you had trouble accessing ChatGPT or X this morning, that&rsquo;s because Cloudflare sustained a major outage.
The rumor mill went wild about a massive cyberattack, but the company says the trouble was more pedestrian: A configuration file that looks out for malicious traffic &ldquo;grew beyond an expected size of entries.&rdquo;
Whatever the reason, shares of Cloudflare sank badly on the open; as the morning wore on, the loss on the day was trimmed to less than 2%.
<a id="3"></a>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Meanwhile, precious metals are rebounding from their own Monday-afternoon sell-off.
At last check, gold is up about 13 bucks to $4,057 and silver has gained 42 cents, sitting at $50.55.
Crude has inched its way back over $60.
Bitcoin sank under $90,000 overnight but has since recovered to nearly $93,600. Ethereum has bounced off the $3,100 level.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Now It Can Be Told (Chinese Gold)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The dam has finally broken: The mainstream is acknowledging China&rsquo;s gold accumulation is much greater than what shows up in Chinese government figures.
From the Financial Times&hellip;
China&rsquo;s unreported gold purchases could be more than 10 times its official figures as it quietly tries to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, say analysts, highlighting the increasingly opaque sources of demand behind bullion&rsquo;s record-breaking rally.
Publicly reported buying by China&rsquo;s central bank has been so low this year &mdash; 1.9 tonnes purchased in August, 1.9 tonnes in July and 2.2 tonnes in June &mdash; that few in the market believe the official figures.
The French banking giant Societe Generale estimates that Beijing&rsquo;s total purchases could reach 250 metric tons this year. But officially, the year-to-date total is only about 10% of that figure.
The FT wants to make the story all about Donald Trump. It cites Nicky Shiels, an analyst at the Swiss refinery MKS Pamp: &ldquo;It makes sense to just report the bare minimum, if need be, for fear of reprisal from the U.S. administration. Gold is seen as a pure USA hedge. In most emerging markets it is in central banks&rsquo; interest to not fully disclose purchases.&rdquo;
But non-mainstream experts, including Paradigm&rsquo;s own Jim Rickards, have said for over 15 years that Beijing understates its gold reserves. Officially they stand just over 2,300 metric tons.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The real total is likely more than twice as large &mdash; and the goal is to accumulate a stash to rival Washington&rsquo;s 8,133.5 metric tons.
A decade ago, Jim wrote that Beijing&rsquo;s endgame was to have a &ldquo;seat at the table&rdquo; along with the United States, the European Union and Japan whenever the next financial crisis rolled around and the global financial system had to be reset.
But that was when Beijing and Washington were on friendlier terms.
Now the goal is to facilitate easier trade and transactions &mdash; bypassing the dollar &mdash; with the other BRICS countries like Russia and India.
That means China&rsquo;s trading partners need to accumulate their own gold &mdash; which means central bank gold purchases <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/57-days#3">will continue to keep a floor under the gold price</a> for years to come.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Really, this one&rsquo;s too obvious. But it still elicits a chuckle&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3uHJ3NCrNgBiDlxseqWM4c/c608e4f9fc96e87acda37d68a2ffe33b/FMF-Issue-11-18-25_1_.png" alt="pub" width="540px" />
Really, worse than rent because the buyer shoulders the maintenance costs, right?
Moving on&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Good Help Is Hard to Find (Continued)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I have several close friends who own businesses,&rdquo; a reader writes on the topic of why good help is so hard to find.
&ldquo;The biggest labor problem they have is that most people they hire have a terrible work ethic. They show up late, do the minimum work necessary, fail to show up without notice, make up lousy excuses for not showing up, etc. In most cases, my friends don't even have to fire anyone because they just quit showing up.
&ldquo;A secondary problem is the lack of education. I've followed the problems in education since the early 1980s when I decided to go to college after dropping out of high school in 1969. By that time, colleges were testing applicants for their math and English skills to see if they needed remedial teaching. I took the tests with about 30 recent high school graduates. I and one other qualified for college algebra and I and two others qualified for English 101. I've also noted over the years that those with an excellent work ethic are also easy to teach. That's why I wrote that education was a secondary problem.
&ldquo;As to how a lower labor quality might be related to illegal immigration, I have noted that of the Mexican immigrants I've hired or worked with, almost all of them had an excellent work ethic. So it is possible that illegal immigrants returning home is complicating our labor quality issue.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;No question there are labor issues &mdash; not just with a reduction in the illegal alien workforce, but also in getting educated office workers!&rdquo; chimes in another.
&ldquo;The competence of applicants is shockingly bad. The work ethic is also lacking overall. I have had thousands of employees over my 45-year career as a business owner and the lack of education (spelling, grammar, etc.) is at a new low.
&ldquo;Funny story: My yacht was in the shipyard in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, in July. Ten people were working on its bottom, employed by a subcontractor. One morning ICE showed up, two escaped over the fence and eight were put in the van never to be seen again.... I can imagine that dozens of the other yards in Florida are having similar issues. Not good for inflation&hellip;&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The only surprise to me of the &lsquo;good help is hard to find&rsquo; response is that it isn&rsquo;t HIGHER,&rdquo; says our final correspondent.
&ldquo;I&rsquo;ve observed increasingly over the past 30 years in the U.S. Army and construction trades that the work ETHIC of the entire country has eroded/is eroding, revealing the bedrock of entitlement and sheer laziness.
&ldquo;I grew up in a farm and entrepreneurial environment where work ethic was a well-attended religion of small operations. As industrial farming and corporate culture replaced these traditional methods, there came employees&hellip; people with no incentive to work harder. Moreover, government subsidies and bailouts replaced incentives to &lsquo;work for it.&rsquo;
&ldquo;At this point, my business ventures must shift away from relying on quality laborers (and tenants who neglect to pay rent) into individual enterprises, as good help is nearly impossible to find (outside of illegal aliens and the Amish). This boils down to a cultural shift to entitlement and handouts.
&ldquo;Love the 5! Thanks and blessings!!&rdquo;
Dave: Thanks to everyone for their input.
We have other topics to tackle in our backlogged mailbox &mdash; including the fate of New York City under the incoming Mayor Mamdani. Catch you tomorrow!

FMF-Issue-11-18-25(Featured)

Venezuela: It’s Not About Drugs

FMF-Issue-11-17-25(Featured)

JPM, Epstein and the Virgin Islands

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Clarity Makes You Competitive
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Paradigm Press was built on a simple premise: Investors need clarity &mdash; not noise. And with the FREE Paradigm Press app, that clarity now reaches you faster than ever before. 
Inside the app, every market alert, deep-dive insight and editorial hot take is delivered in real-time. No inbox hunting. No waiting for tomorrow&rsquo;s issue. Just immediate, distilled analysis from the same team you already trust &mdash; all in one place.
And the real game-changer? The app&rsquo;s Daily Feed. This isn&rsquo;t a firehose of headlines or a copy-paste of Wall Street sentiment. It&rsquo;s a living, rolling stream where Paradigm editors flag the shifts, signals and surprises that actually matter.
This week, that feed surfaced four themes worth your attention&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Trading Pro Enrique Abeyta &mdash; A Rolling Correction Hiding in Plain Sight
&ldquo;The stock market has been undergoing a rolling correction over the last few months,&rdquo; he writes. &ldquo;It has not shown up as much in the major stock indexes as they are being powered by the largest stocks, but it can be seen in the majority of stocks.&rdquo;
He highlights five historical periods when the Nasdaq-100 rose for seven-straight months &mdash; and in four out of those five instances, the following month turned negative.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5yCPrQ5LRDrzQXkzvPfHtA/0248ff453f22f5fb9a29e53b1553d642/dailyfeed-111225-2.png" alt="Enrique Daily Feed" />
&ldquo;It is CURRENTLY down 1.26% for November,&rdquo; Enrique notes. &ldquo;Let&rsquo;s see what happens for the rest of the month.&rdquo;
For anyone lulled by surface-level analysis, this is the kind of hidden cycle Enrique specializes in calling out.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Editor Adam Sharp &mdash; Silver&rsquo;s Breakout Setup
Adam flags a chart showing silver clawing its way back from its recent sell-off, now trading just under $54 an ounce.
&ldquo;Silver has staged an impressive comeback,&rdquo; he writes. &ldquo;Here&rsquo;s a six-month chart to give some perspective.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4GqqWuESjng375KioVEVhY/02697b83ba6f20c41c5eefbab1592e08/dailyfeed-111225-3.png" alt="Adam Sharp Daily Feed" />
&ldquo;If silver can move up a few more dollars to fresh all-time highs, it should be off to the races again.&rdquo;
It&rsquo;s a one-two punch: a metal regaining momentum and sitting on the doorstep of a technical breakout.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Our own Managing Editor Dave Gonigam &mdash; A Viral Screenshot You Shouldn&rsquo;t Believe
Dave highlights a piece of political misinformation circulating widely online &mdash; and why it should be ignored.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2K0jPdyvANQLeVHFkR5NxY/12602a7688acf6fa0b72e9aa1f5e6eea/dailyfeed-111125-2.png" alt="Dave Gonigam Daily Feed" />
&ldquo;As far as I can tell&hellip; this screenshot is not authentic,&rdquo; he writes. &ldquo;But it&rsquo;s being spread far and wide on social media, including among Trump voters, because, under the circumstances, it seems just plausible enough.&rdquo;
In an era when markets react to every headline, knowing what&rsquo;s real &mdash; and what&rsquo;s engineered for clicks &mdash; is half the battle.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Editor Sean Ring &mdash; A Housing-Crisis Icon Bows Out
Sean posts about an under-the-radar retirement (no, not that one; more on that in a moment).
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s the end of an era&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4Qn5WUNacW8ryRjkaNhg6h/e39f0eb53aeac8deea1ccbdb06982dbe/dailyfeed-111325-1.jpg" alt="Sean Ring Daily Feed" />
&ldquo;Michael Burry, whom Christian Bale played in The Big Short, has retired from professional fund management.&rdquo;
For a generation of investors shaped by 2008, Burry&rsquo;s exit is more than a personnel change &mdash; it&rsquo;s a bookmark in the history of modern markets.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The magic here isn&rsquo;t just that you get Paradigm&rsquo;s best ideas. You get them when they happen. No inbox delay. No wading through half your morning news sources just to figure out what actually matters.
This is the stuff our editors read, react to and riff on daily. And now you can see it all the instant they hit &ldquo;publish.&rdquo;
So readers never have to wonder: &ldquo;Did I miss something important?&rdquo;
If ever there were a time for an information upgrade, it&rsquo;s in this uncertain market. Major movers are shifting: The Fed is unpredictable, geopolitics are volatile and investors are looking for up-to-the-minute research from credible analysts.
The Paradigm Press app meets that demand&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Speed: Get critical ideas fast</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Coverage: All subscriptions, plus exclusive free resources, in one place</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Daily Feed: Out-of-the-box market insights that clear away the clutter.</li>
</ul>
To cut through today&rsquo;s noise and uncertainty, a more effective tool is required. Discover for yourself by <a href="https://d2z65klgtz99km.cloudfront.net/PPG-App/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">downloading the FREE Paradigm Press smartphone app for iPhone or Android.</a>
The Paradigm Press app is built for the investor who wants less clutter, more precision &mdash; and real-time access to some of the sharpest minds in financial analysis.
The Daily Feed? That&rsquo;s the icing on the cake: rapid-fire commentary and hot takes on every major shift, from stablecoins to the S&amp;P 500.
The app is right there &mdash; when you need it most.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />&ldquo;BTD!&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s shaping up to be an interesting week for stock
If you&rsquo;ve been following the Daily Feed in our app, you know context is key. Before we get into the market notes, here&rsquo;s one more sharp-eyed read from Enrique Abeyta to frame what&rsquo;s really happening.
<blockquote>It feels pretty painful out there in the stock market right now &mdash; especially in the more speculative stocks. A quick reminder, though, that the REAL companies have been performing very well: 82% of S&amp;P 500 companies reported a profit beat and 77% reported better-than-expected sales. This is NOT how BEAR markets start. BTD!</blockquote>
BTD? Buy the dips&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Checking our screen, it&rsquo;s just the DJIA that&rsquo;s registering losses so far today. At the time of writing, the Big Board&rsquo;s down 0.25% to 47,340.
The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq, meanwhile, are clawing their way out of the red. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, in particular, is up 0.70% to 23,030 while the S&amp;P 500 is up 0.45% to 6,765.
When it comes to the commodities complex, it&rsquo;s a mixed bag. The price of crude&rsquo;s up 2.45% to $60.15 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. But precious metals are getting clobbered. Gold&rsquo;s down 2.10% to $4,105.40 per ounce. Silver? Down 3.70% to $51.20.
And there&rsquo;s no way around it: Bitcoin&rsquo;s having a no-good day. The flagship crypto is down in the dumps to $96,900. (Another Daily Feed bonus, apropos of BTC: &ldquo;New tentative downside target is $84,100,&rdquo; says editor Sean Ring.) Ethereum, however, is up 1.75% to $3,225.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Quantum Question
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;What happens when quantum computing becomes real? Will the tech make all these recently built AI data centers obsolete?&rdquo; a reader asks Paradigm editor Davis Wilson at our sister e-letter The Million Mission. 
&ldquo;To answer frankly, not at all,&rdquo; Davis replies. &ldquo;Quantum computers will eventually transform certain industries &mdash; helping scientists design new drugs, optimize global shipping routes or even break today&rsquo;s encryption &mdash; but that&rsquo;s still at least 10-plus years away.
&ldquo;The machines we have now are tiny, unstable and need ultra-cold environments to function,&rdquo; he adds. &ldquo;Even once they mature, they won&rsquo;t replace AI data centers.
&ldquo;Quantum computers excel at very specific problems, but AI relies on a different kind of math that runs best on GPUs and traditional processors.
&ldquo;Most experts expect a hybrid future: quantum chips will plug into existing cloud and AI systems as accelerators, not replacements. Think of them as powerful co-pilots that make AI faster or more energy-efficient in certain tasks.
&ldquo;So no, today&rsquo;s massive AI data centers aren&rsquo;t going anywhere,&rdquo; Davis concludes. &ldquo;If anything, quantum computing will make them even more important as the backbone for next-generation tech.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Buffett: Before the Myth
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Warren Buffett&rsquo;s retirement became official the moment his farewell letter went out this week &mdash; a quiet but unmistakable closing chapter for a man who shaped market dynamics for 60 years.
&ldquo;I still remember the first time I saw him in person back in 2003 at the Berkshire annual meeting in Omaha,&rdquo; James Altucher says. &ldquo;The Buffettpalooza.&rdquo;
There were 20,000 people, Krispy Kreme donuts and a stampede across freshly cleaned floors where &ldquo;everyone was slipping, falling, sliding.&rdquo;
The night before that meeting, James met a man who had bought 200 Berkshire shares in 1976, sold half when they doubled and kept the rest forever.
Those remaining shares &mdash; worth $74 million &mdash; became the purest illustration of Buffett&rsquo;s worldview: Wealth comes via patience, not cleverness.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not easy to find unusual things about Warren Buffett,&rdquo; James writes, but he has always been drawn to the details that reveal who Buffett was before he became&hellip; BUFFETT.
&ldquo;Why should you listen to me?&rdquo; asks James. &ldquo;Because I wrote THE book on Warren Buffett (even Buffett said so).&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5exVHfv7q9KmxFdCmgfPwh/b2da5cd85a407dff7982f4e655d56606/trade_like_warren_buffett_ja.png" alt="Trade Like Warren Buffett" width="232px" />
&ldquo;Probably the worst cover in the history of the printing press,&rdquo; says James. 
James reminds readers, for instance, that Buffett&rsquo;s worst investment wasn&rsquo;t a billion-dollar oil bet but a Sinclair gas station where &ldquo;he lost $2,000, when his savings were about $9,600 at the time.&rdquo; That early sting, James believes, nudged Buffett toward the durable style that later defined Berkshire.
But the line James considers the truest window into Warren Buffett, the man, came from a shareholder&rsquo;s question about how Buffett measured success. &ldquo;I measure success by how many people love me. And the best way to be loved is to be loveable,&rdquo; he said.
&ldquo;And that,&rdquo; James says, &ldquo;was the most interesting thing I didn&rsquo;t know about Warren Buffett.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />De-Dollarization? Hold That Thought
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Robinhood is testing a simple idea that somehow feels like a plot twist: cash, delivered to your door like late-night pad thai.
This week, the brokerage teamed up with delivery app Gopuff to let customers withdraw money from their Robinhood bank accounts and have it delivered to their door in a sealed paper bag.
It&rsquo;s available now in New York and coming soon to San Francisco, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C. and other major U.S. cities. The fee is $6.99 per delivery &mdash; unless you hold more than $100,000 across Robinhood accounts, in which case it drops to $2.99.
It&rsquo;s a curious offering for a company that built its brand on digital everything. But Robinhood has been widening its scope since March, when CEO Vlad Tenev teased a suite of traditional and not-so-traditional banking perks. Discounted helicopter rides. A shot at Met Gala tickets. And now: cash on demand.
Deepak Rao, who runs Robinhood Money, frames it this way: &ldquo;Everything gets delivered&hellip; from burritos to medicine,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;Why not cash?&rdquo;
To use it, customers need a Robinhood Gold subscription ($5 a month) plus at least $1,000 in direct deposits. Deliveries run 9 a.m. to 7 p.m., and Gopuff drivers won&rsquo;t know whether the sealed bag contains dollar bills or diapers. But you&rsquo;ll need to meet them at the door and provide a verification code.
Here&rsquo;s the larger irony: At a moment when policymakers and financial media insist cash is dying &mdash; and in the very same week the U.S. Mint stopped producing the penny &mdash; Robinhood is betting on the opposite.
For all our talk about de-dollarization and a cashless future, the demand for physical currency isn&rsquo;t disappearing. And there&rsquo;s something heartening about that.
On the other hand&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3VDa0rOUUYCtwAoYIBdFBz/4853a7dd21fe0aa5af4c4050cb80d8bc/sam_ro_x.png" alt="Sam Ro X" />
The market moves fast: The Nasdaq is currently UP&hellip; That&rsquo;s one more reason you should download Paradigm&rsquo;s FREE app! 
Take care, reader! Enjoy the weekend.

fmf hero 111425

Correction Hiding in Plain Sight

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Trump&rsquo;s Public-Private Partnership
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Trump is not so much breaking the Reagan-Thatcher free-market model as he is returning the U.S. to an earlier model that worked well,&rdquo; writes Paradigm&rsquo;s macro expert Jim Rickards.
The Reagan Revolution aimed to dismantle the bureaucratic state built under Wilson and FDR. Trump, Jim says, &ldquo;is leapfrogging all three episodes and going back to a 19th-century model that made America great the first time.&rdquo;
<ul>
<li>He points to the Homestead Act of 1862, which gave settlers land to cultivate &mdash; more than 270 million acres across 30 states &mdash; at virtually no cost to the government. It was a partnership between public resources and private initiative</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The same logic applied to the railroad land grants of the 1850s&ndash;1870s, rural electrification in the 1930s and the massive engineering projects of the New Deal era.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;In short,&rdquo; says Jim, &ldquo;Trump is not destroying private-sector capitalism. He&rsquo;s returning America to a period when private capital could thrive with a boost from the government and when the benefits to citizens were far greater than any government could provide on its own.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not socialism. It&rsquo;s not fascism. It&rsquo;s not free-market capitalism. It&rsquo;s a pragmatic return to a time when locked-up government wealth and private-sector genius worked together to make life better for all Americans.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Trump&rsquo;s presidency is redrawing the map of the U.S. economy itself, and the pace of Trump&rsquo;s deal-making has been dizzying.
In June 2025, his administration approved Nippon Steel&rsquo;s acquisition of U.S. Steel, but with a twist: the U.S. received a &ldquo;golden share&rdquo; &mdash; giving veto power over plant closings, salary cuts or name changes. Nippon also pledged billions in U.S. facility upgrades.
In July, the government became the largest shareholder in MP Materials, the country&rsquo;s only rare-earth mine. That was followed by equity stakes in Lithium Americas and Trilogy Metals &mdash; all aimed at securing critical minerals vital for defense and clean-tech supply chains.
Trump cut a deal in August with Nvidia and AMD, allowing limited chip sales to China in exchange for a 15% profit royalty to the U.S. taxpayer. The same month, Apple agreed to invest $600 billion domestically and expand U.S. chip, glass and software production. Trump leveraged tariff threats to seal the deal.
Plus, Intel received $8.9 billion in federal investment, giving taxpayers upside in its recovery and securing future chip manufacturing on U.S. soil.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Jim believes the natural destination for these holdings is a U.S. sovereign wealth fund (SWF), modeled on Norway or Abu Dhabi&rsquo;s trillion-dollar funds. It would consolidate federal equity stakes, royalties, license fees and crypto assets.
&ldquo;If Trump is successful in creating his SWF,&rdquo; Jim says, &ldquo;the future of American wealth may no longer rely on debt and money printing but could be based on income-producing assets and hard assets held safely in trust and out of the hands of corrupt politicians.
&ldquo;The U.S. investments are strategic but are still relatively few compared with the market capitalization of all private companies,&rdquo; he notes. &ldquo;The U.S. percentage ownership in each case is in the 5&ndash;10 % range, which is a far cry from a socialist-style takeover.&rdquo;
Jim concludes: &ldquo;Trump is using some government resources to prime the pump for private wealth creation. This is in keeping with the Homestead Act, the transcontinental railroad and the Tennessee Valley Authority.
&ldquo;The boundaries between the public and private sectors have never been impermeable,&rdquo; Jim adds, &ldquo;but they do exist and most of us have a sense of which side of the line we&rsquo;re on.
&ldquo;Not anymore.&rdquo;
The Trump administration is taking ownership stakes in major corporations while selling or leasing public assets back to private hands. Some call it chaos. Jim calls it an opportunity.
&ldquo;Smart investors will put ideology aside,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;and make the most of it while the opportunity lasts.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Penny Drops
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The U.S. Mint quietly ended penny production on Nov. 12, 2025 &mdash; a footnote to most people, but a reminder of how far the dollar has fallen.
For years, critics fixated on the Mint spending roughly 3.7 cents to make a one-cent coin. But that&rsquo;s just the symptom. The real story is the century-long erosion of the currency itself.
Gold was pulled from U.S. money in 1933. Silver followed in 1965. And the penny stopped being a true copper coin in 1982, when rising metal prices forced the Mint to switch from 95% copper to a 97.5% zinc slug coated in copper. By then, the metal in a &ldquo;copper&rdquo; cent was worth more than a cent.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2705Uo8S7Q2xt1H4bteLZo/b62cdc546c02acd2b5c14fb3766c45de/fmf_coins.jpg" alt="Coins" />
Source: Reddit
When a nation can no longer afford to mint its smallest denomination, it&rsquo;s not the coin that&rsquo;s been debased &mdash; it&rsquo;s the currency behind it.
If the raw metal in a low-value coin becomes too expensive relative to the currency&rsquo;s face value, that is a sign of falling purchasing power. The progressive removal of precious and semiprecious metals from U.S. coins reflects the declining real value of the dollar over time.
Ending penny production is, in part, an acknowledgment that the dollar can no longer support what used to be a trivial unit of account.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />After 43 days, the federal government shutdown is officially over. Late Wednesday night, President Trump signed a stopgap funding bill to keep agencies operating through Jan. 30, 2026.
The measure already cleared the Senate earlier in the week, and it passed the House on Wednesday evening by a tight 222&ndash;209 vote &mdash; ending what became the longest shutdown in modern U.S. history.
This morning, the government began its slow restart. The Office of Management and Budget directed agencies to reopen and ordered furloughed federal workers back to their posts.
But the effects won&rsquo;t disappear overnight. Millions of Americans are awaiting food stamp benefits, though the USDA says most SNAP payments should resume within 24 hours of reopening. And federal workers are still waiting on back pay.
Here&rsquo;s how Wall Street is responding&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The DJIA did get a relief bounce yesterday, closing above 48,000 for the first time. But that enthusiasm is fizzling today. 
The Dow&rsquo;s pulled back 0.85% to 47,835; at the same time, the S&amp;P 500 is down 1.10% to 6,775. It&rsquo;s the tech-heavy Nasdaq that&rsquo;s really getting clobbered: down 1.70% to 23,000.
Crude, meanwhile, is the only commodity we report that&rsquo;s getting a boost. A barrel of WTI is up 0.60%, but still historically low at $58.85. Precious metals, you wonder? Silver&rsquo;s getting crushed &mdash; down 1% to $52.85, and gold is down 0.35% to $4,200 per ounce.
Likewise, crypto is in the red. Bitcoin&rsquo;s down 1.35% to $100,265 while Ethereum&rsquo;s down 3.40% to $3,300.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Bridging the Gap
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Last week, we introduced readers to <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/no-bailout-for-you-openai/#2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bittensor</a>&mdash; a decentralized AI network James Altucher believes solves the &ldquo;permission problem&rdquo; in modern AI. 
According to James, AI today is trapped in its own walled garden: &ldquo;I need permission from Nvidia for chips, permission from VCs for funding and permission from governments for licenses,&rdquo; he says.
Bittensor works differently. Instead of one big centralized AI system, Bittensor is made up of many smaller networks, each called a subnet.
A subnet is essentially a mini-startup inside the Bittensor ecosystem. Anyone &mdash; independent developers, researchers, small teams &mdash; can create one. You don&rsquo;t need a big company or venture capital backing. You just launch a subnet that performs a specific task.
Some subnets detect deep fakes, for instance. Some train AI models. Others build cybersecurity tools or trading algorithms. Every subnet is its own competitive marketplace where people around the world &ldquo;compete to do the work,&rdquo; James says.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Subnet tokens are used to reward participants &mdash; miners, stakers or contributors &mdash; based on the work they perform inside that subnet. They&rsquo;re like shares in that mini-startup.
But here&rsquo;s the critical design choice: You can&rsquo;t buy a subnet token directly. &ldquo;To get a subnet token, you ALWAYS need TAO,&rdquo; James explains.
TAO is the reserve asset of the entire system. It is the currency that everything flows through:
<ul>
<li>Using a digital TAO wallet, you buy TAO (your entry ticket)</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>You deposit TAO into the subnet (your investment)</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>You earn subnet tokens (your reward &mdash; like getting shares).</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;Everything routes through TAO &mdash; every incentive, every [reward], every subnet entry,&rdquo; says James.
&ldquo;Up to now, the process has been too technical for most people,&rdquo; he adds. &ldquo;Bridges change that.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />A bridge is a piece of software that plugs Bittensor into regular crypto exchanges. When you want to buy a subnet token through a bridge, the system quietly buys TAO in the background to complete the transaction.
You never see it happen &mdash; but TAO&rsquo;s bought every single time, which creates constant built-in demand for TAO.
TAO isn&rsquo;t just a regular crypto coin: It&rsquo;s the core currency of a whole new economic system. As more subnets are created, TAO becomes more valuable.
And once bridges make those subnets easy for anyone to access, the entire ecosystem can grow much faster &mdash; with TAO benefiting at every step.
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s why,&rdquo; James says, &ldquo;I haven&rsquo;t been this excited about an investment ecosystem in decades.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Tether: Stablecoin or SWF?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Tether is hiring two of HSBC&rsquo;s most senior precious-metals executives to support its growing gold reserve. 
Both hires &mdash; HSBC&rsquo;s global head of metals trading Vincent Domien and Mathew O&rsquo;Neill, head of precious-metals origination for Europe, the Middle East and Africa &mdash; mark a major coup.
Domien sits on the board of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and became HSBC&rsquo;s global metals chief in 2022. O&rsquo;Neill has been with the bank since 2008.
Their departure comes as the gold market is more competitive than it has been in decades, with bullion heading for its best annual performance since 1979.
Tether is the company behind USDT, the world&rsquo;s largest stablecoin &mdash; a digital token designed to hold a constant one-to-one value with the U.S. dollar.
The company has quietly accumulated one of the world&rsquo;s largest non-sovereign gold hoards, holding more than $12 billion in bullion as of September.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3jti4XzKCkp36vHE5CbDoT/3cfa92c035df8f7769dd8f5468b22d74/fmf_tether_tweet.png" alt="Tweet" width="450px" />
According to Bloomberg&rsquo;s calculations, in the year leading up to September 2025, the firm added gold at an average rate of one metric ton per week.
This expansion signals a deeper shift&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Tether is positioning itself less like a payments firm and more like an analogue to a central bank&hellip; Or a sovereign wealth fund (SWF)? 
Tether&rsquo;s reserves span U.S. Treasuries, gold and other assets &mdash; totalling $180 billion. Last year, those reserves generated $13 billion in profit; this year, the company expects roughly $15 billion.
The timing aligns with global monetary behavior. The World Gold Council reported more than 1,000 tonnes of central-bank gold purchases in 2024, making it one of the strongest years on record.
As emerging economies hedge against dollar-linked volatility, Tether appears to be making the same calculation. Its growing bullion footprint, now reinforced by HSBC veterans, suggests a long-term strategy built on hard assets rather than dollar dependency.
&ldquo;Tether&rsquo;s bullion buildup could alter the perception of stablecoins from digital cash to privately managed reserve assets,&rdquo; says an article at BeInCrypto.
&ldquo;In effect, Tether is acting less like a payment processor and more like a sovereign wealth fund.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Worst Stocking Stuffer Ever
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Apple unveiled an extra pocket for your iPhone: a pouch &mdash; priced around $150&ndash;$230 &mdash; that looks suspiciously like a repurposed sock. Just in time for the holidays!
It&rsquo;s a limited-time collaboration with Miyake Design Studio &mdash; the brand behind Steve Jobs&rsquo; iconic black turtlenecks.
The accessory is already being lampooned. Deservedly so.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1cyx9cpViM37rjxw0aeiYD/86d729855f0cedf20c2830093355e6d9/fmf_pouch.png" alt="Pouch" />
Courtesy: Apple Form: 0. Function: 0. Consumer: &ndash; $150&ndash;$230.
One imagines Jobs, wherever he is, observing this knitted phone holster and reconsidering his life&rsquo;s work &mdash; and the late Issey Miyake taking similar inventory.
Apple, meanwhile, seems to be floating a social experiment to determine just how far brand loyalty can stretch&hellip; before it unravels completely.
Have a great day! We&rsquo;ll be back tomorrow&hellip;

fmf hero 111325

How Trump Can Make America Great Again

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Blessed Are the Inept
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Now that Mamdani&rsquo;s actually won, the No. 1 question I&rsquo;ve been getting is: &lsquo;What happens to New York?&rsquo;&rdquo; recounts Buck Sexton &mdash; the No. 1 voice in conservative talk radio and former CIA officer.
Before answering that, he offers some context. Buck and his two brothers grew up in the city, but all eventually migrated south during the pandemic.
&ldquo;Mason was the first one to make the move, the original pioneer, while the rest of us were still trying to convince ourselves that outdoor dining in February counted as &lsquo;normal life.&rsquo; Then our other brother followed.&rdquo;
Buck stayed a bit longer&mdash;&ldquo;not because I was clinging to the city,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;but because I still had routines, work and family there. Our parents are still in New York.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not like I disappeared into the Everglades and swore an oath to Publix,&rdquo; he adds. The family already had &ldquo;a foot in Florida before the pandemic,&rdquo; and the breakdown during COVID only sped things up.
Buck insists, however, the virus didn&rsquo;t &ldquo;ruin&rdquo; New York. &ldquo;COVID just happened to hit while the city was already weakened,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;The real damage was eight years of Bill de Blasio taking the safest, most functional version of New York in modern history and slowly dulling every edge of it.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;People forget the New York that de Blasio inherited was probably the best city in America, and I would argue the world, bar none,&rdquo; says Buck.
For the first few years of his first term as mayor, Buck notes, de Blasio &ldquo;tried to tell all of us how safe the city was, how much investment had gone into making NYC better.&rdquo; But it took half a decade before people realized &ldquo;how much he&rsquo;d actually broken.&rdquo; By then, Buck says, &ldquo;the damage had already spread.&rdquo;
He describes de Blasio&rsquo;s daily routine as a kind of metaphor for the whole era: &ldquo;He&rsquo;d roll out of bed late, ease into the day, take a chauffeured SUV 90 minutes to the YMCA in Brooklyn, work out, ride 90 minutes back, have lunch, take a nap and finally &lsquo;start working&rsquo; around 2:30 p.m. His staff used to joke that if you got an hour of his focus, you won the lottery.&rdquo;
The saving grace, Buck and Mason agree, was that &ldquo;his laziness kept him from doing even more harm.&rdquo; Which brings them to the next act in New York&rsquo;s story&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Mamdani is a different kind of problem. He has the ideology, the slogans and the activist energy, but none of the operational experience,&rdquo; Buck says.
&ldquo;De Blasio pulled the wrong levers. Mamdani doesn&rsquo;t even know where the levers are.&rdquo;
That lack of experience might paradoxically protect the city. &ldquo;He&rsquo;s not going to be able to successfully transform the city into some sweeping political experiment,&rdquo; Buck says. &ldquo;[Mamdani] probably won&rsquo;t be able to do much of anything at all. And in a backward way, that might actually be the city&rsquo;s best defense.&rdquo;
A recent poll claims that 700,000 New Yorkers plan to leave because Mamdani won. &ldquo;No, they won&rsquo;t,&rdquo; Buck says flatly. &ldquo;The people who were going to leave already left.&rdquo;
States including Florida and Texas, for instance, &ldquo;have already absorbed the bulk of the COVID-era migration.&rdquo; The ones with &ldquo;the flexibility, the money and the motivation are [already] gone.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/23ye716hxa6qH4TElZutH7/f5ff11acc332c86c46ff55c54634fd40/fmf_uhaul.png" alt="uhaul pricing" />
A pandemic-era reminder&hellip; 
Paradigm&rsquo;s iconoclast investor and lifelong NYC resident James Altucher fled the city in 2020. He called the pandemic&rsquo;s devastating effect on the city, in fact, <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2020/08/18/worse-than-9-11/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">worse than 9/11.</a>
If another &ldquo;50,000&ndash;100,000 high-earning, tax-contributing, remote-capable people&rdquo; decide to move out of NYC, Buck says, that would matter &ldquo;a lot.&rdquo; New York, he explains, &ldquo;runs on a very specific layer of the tax base.&rdquo;
Next, Buck assesses 34-year-old Mamdani himself&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Zohran Mamdani [has] never run anything. His resume is panels, hashtags and viral videos. He&rsquo;s no Elon Musk&hellip; He&rsquo;s not even an Eric Adams.&rdquo;
Mason Sexton adds: &ldquo;He hasn&rsquo;t even tried anything. There&rsquo;s no track record. Good or bad. Just nothing.&rdquo;
And Buck doesn&rsquo;t expect that to change. &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t see him up at sunrise with a crime-plan binder and a task force,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;I see a lot of press conferences, policies by vibes and endless talk about &lsquo;justice&rsquo; and &lsquo;community.&rsquo; Not a lot of tackling core issues.&rdquo;
To Buck&rsquo;s way of thinking, &ldquo;New York&rsquo;s biggest threat has always been a competent ideologue. Mamdani is an incompetent ideologue. And at this stage, that may actually be mercy.&rdquo;
Forecasting the year ahead, Buck says New York &ldquo;isn&rsquo;t going to be a wasteland, and it&rsquo;s not going to be a comeback story either.&rdquo; It&rsquo;ll look &ldquo;a lot like it does right now &mdash; just a little more worn down around the edges.&rdquo;
Mason agrees: &ldquo;It may not be the end of the world. Think San Francisco a few years ago &mdash; more crime, more homeless, more dysfunction. [Mamdani] should be somewhat capped in terms of what he can accomplish by the state.&rdquo;
That, Buck says, is the most realistic outlook: The city &ldquo;will keep going, just not upward.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Buck and his family have deep roots in NYC. &ldquo;We don&rsquo;t want it to fail. But under Mamdani? It&rsquo;s not moving forward. It&rsquo;s just drifting,&rdquo; he says.
The serious damage &mdash; the crime spike, the empty offices, the population shift &mdash; &ldquo;already happened on de Blasio&rsquo;s watch, long before Mamdani showed up,&rdquo; Buck says.
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s the silver lining.&rdquo; Meaning, &ldquo;the only real danger now would be competence,&rdquo; he notes. &ldquo;And luckily for New York, that&rsquo;s not what we&rsquo;re dealing with.&rdquo;
&ldquo;The biggest thing working in New York&rsquo;s favor right now,&rdquo; he concludes, &ldquo;is that Mamdani isn&rsquo;t smart enough, experienced enough or disciplined enough to implement the things he talks about.
&ldquo;He can&rsquo;t ruin the city&hellip; He doesn&rsquo;t know how the city works. And in 2025, that might be the closest thing New York gets to hope.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Fed&rsquo;s Family Feud
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The Fed&rsquo;s favorite mouthpiece, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, reports that Powell&rsquo;s Fed is facing one of its sharpest internal rifts in years. 
Specifically, policymakers are split over which danger looms larger &mdash; persistent inflation or a weakening labor market. That divide has &ldquo;complicated what looked like a workable plan less than two months ago,&rdquo; Timiraos says.
When the Fed cut rates in September and again in October, a slim majority expected to continue easing through year-end. But hawks pushed back hard, arguing further cuts risk reigniting inflation. Powell, trying to hold the center, said after the October meeting that another December cut was &ldquo;far from&rdquo; certain.
The debate, Timiraos notes, reflects &ldquo;two contingents growing louder and a center with less conviction.&rdquo; (At least, someone wants that narrative put out there; per usual, Timiraos is obliging.)
The Fed is far from unified &mdash; and that means markets, businesses and households can expect less clarity and more volatility, especially as the federal shutdown&rsquo;s data blackout comes to an end.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The House will return to Washington to vote on the bill to reopen the federal government after a record-long shutdown,&rdquo; The Hill reports today.
At the time of writing, the stock market&rsquo;s not reacting favorably. The Dow &mdash; up over 300 points to 48,250 &mdash; is the only major U.S. index currently in the green. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 500 is down 0.15% to 6,835, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 0.65% to 23,305.
Turning to the commodities complex, oil&rsquo;s getting hammered: down almost 4% to $58.60 for a barrel of West Texas crude. Precious metals, however, are rallying. Gold&rsquo;s up 2% to $4,200 per ounce; silver&rsquo;s up almost 5%, above $53.
Finally, the crypto market&rsquo;s in deep red territory. Bitcoin&rsquo;s down 1.25% to $101,600 while Ethereum&rsquo;s down 1.10% to $3,400.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Hemp Hijacks Capitol Hill
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />After weeks of gridlock, Congress appears ready to reopen the government &mdash; except for one unexpected snag: hemp.
Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is refusing to fast-track the funding deal because of a clause that, he says, targets his state&rsquo;s hemp businesses.
The language, buried in the Agriculture Department section, would close the &ldquo;hemp loophole&rdquo; created by the 2018 Farm Bill &mdash; the gap that let companies sell hemp-derived THC products (Delta-8, Delta-9 and others) nationwide so long as they met the law&rsquo;s hemp definition.
Delta-8 and Delta-9 are both forms of THC, the psychoactive compound in cannabis. Delta-9 is the traditional, more potent form found in marijuana; Delta-8 occurs in hemp only in trace amounts and is typically synthesized from CBD.
Under current federal law, hemp products are legal if they contain less than 0.3% Delta-9 THC by dry weight. The new proposal would instead cap total THC at just 0.4 milligrams per container &mdash; a shift that would effectively wipe out most hemp-derived gummies, vapes and oils now on the market.
The regulated marijuana industry views the hemp-derived THC market as a competitive threat because it bypasses many of the taxes, licensing requirements and regulatory burdens that apply to state-licensed cannabis operators. (Think of products sold in gas stations or online, for instance.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Paul argues the change unfairly punishes Kentucky farmers and the businesses that turn their crops into hemp-based oils and products. 
His office says he wants the government reopened &ldquo;without delay,&rdquo; but objects to provisions that &ldquo;unfairly target Kentucky&rsquo;s hemp industry.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6oLldPc16ZTbcOYiyUPHj0/2eb7a2d6b85eeecd31893c51aaca77b0/randPaulX.png" alt="Rand Paul X" />
He can&rsquo;t stop the bill outright, but he can slow it for days by forcing procedural votes. Meanwhile, the White House says President Trump &ldquo;supports the current language in the bill on hemp.&rdquo;
Paul blames fellow Kentuckian Mitch McConnell for the restriction. McConnell, who championed hemp in 2018, now says legalization produced &ldquo;an unintended consequence&rdquo; &mdash; a booming market in supposedly intoxicating hemp derivatives, estimated around $28 billion.
Support for a crackdown is broad: A bipartisan coalition of 38 state attorneys general has urged Congress to close the loophole. As Sen. Susan Collins (ME-R) puts it, there&rsquo;s &ldquo;strong support&rdquo; to tighten the law across red and blue states alike.
Hemp &mdash; not spending &mdash; is the wrinkle keeping Capitol Hill tied in knots. For now&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Fab That Fractured Europe
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In late September, the Dutch government invoked a Cold War-era emergency law to seize control of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/ground-zero-of-techs-cold-war" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nexperia,</a> a semiconductor company based in the Netherlands but owned by China&rsquo;s Wingtech Technology. 
Officials cited &ldquo;serious governance shortcomings and actions within Nexperia&rdquo; that &ldquo;posed a threat&rdquo; to national security and the continuity of critical technology supplies.
Beijing immediately condemned the move as political interference. In retaliation, China froze exports of Nexperia chips from its domestic facilities to Europe and halted shipments of key manufacturing materials to the Netherlands. The disruption alarmed automakers already reeling from U.S. tariffs and Chinese curbs on rare earth exports.
Nexperia produces so-called &ldquo;legacy&rdquo; semiconductors used in vehicle systems such as airbags, power steering and central locking. About 70&ndash;80% of its European-made chips are sent to China for processing before being re-exported &mdash; an exposure that left Europe&rsquo;s auto sector vulnerable when Beijing turned off the tap.
By October, Volvo, Volkswagen and Jaguar Land Rover warned production shutdowns were imminent, and the European Automobile Manufacturers&rsquo; Association said supplies could run out within weeks.
Amid mounting pressure, China eased restrictions in early November, granting export exemptions for &ldquo;civilian use.&rdquo; EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said Brussels was working toward a &ldquo;lasting, stable, predictable framework&rdquo; to restore chip flows.
The temporary truce coincided with a broader U.S.&ndash;China deal reached by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to suspend tariffs and rare-earth bans for one year.
Yet experts warn the Nexperia episode has exposed Europe&rsquo;s dependence on Chinese manufacturing and the fragility of global supply chains. &ldquo;This is what decoupling actually looks like,&rdquo; says Tom Nunlist of Trivium China. &ldquo;And it&rsquo;s a huge mess.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />The CBOE Flip
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The former Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Global Markets address is trading in its analog soul for a server farm future. 
The behemoth at 400 S. LaSalle, once buzzing with traders, is on its way to becoming a 33-megawatt data center &mdash; a makeover fueled by today&rsquo;s relentless demand for digital infrastructure.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3VeoL0xPrqeOzDDEoW3qYf/9579c878783bbc0cb6498709012568fc/fmf_cboe.jpg" alt="CBOE Building" />
Courtesy: LoopNet
Turns out the empty trading floors and thick wiring, engineered decades ago for split-second trades, are ideal for racks of humming servers instead of shouting brokers.
Legacy Investing, the new owner, plans to have the facility online by the end of next year, transforming a monument to finance into a tech-heavy digital hub.
What makes urban centers appealing is their proximity to power and network connectivity &mdash; absolutely crucial for latency-sensitive trades, streaming and high-frequency futures. Power is in such short supply nationwide that simply boosting capacity made the property worth triple its prior sale price.
This isn&rsquo;t just a real estate flip: It&rsquo;s a sign of the times, with AI and the cloud fueling demand even for downtown spaces.

fmf hero 111225

Buck Sexton: NYC’s Uncertain Future

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />These Numbers Shouldn&rsquo;t Be Rising
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Amid the &ldquo;partial government shutdown,&rdquo; we&rsquo;ve had no official job numbers since August &mdash; and the official inflation numbers won&rsquo;t arrive on schedule this Thursday.
So what&rsquo;s the state of &ldquo;the economy&rdquo; right now, really?
In the first place, we&rsquo;ll remind you that official economic statistics are mostly bunk. Both the job numbers and the inflation numbers are gamed to make matters look better than they really are. If government economists used the same yardsticks they used 50 years ago, we&rsquo;d be looking at inflation north of 10% and unemployment would be on the order of 25%.
But that&rsquo;s a story for another day. What can we deduce from the figures we have available to work with?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In the first place, it&rsquo;s clear that inflation is moving in the wrong direction.
Shutdown notwithstanding, the Bureau of Labor Statistics cobbled together a September consumer price index released back on Oct. 24. Really there was no choice: The 2026 Social Security cost-of-living increases hinged on those numbers.
With that release, the official inflation rate is 3.0%.
That&rsquo;s way better than the 9% peak in the summer of 2022. But it&rsquo;s also up substantially since last spring, advancing almost as steeply as it did in the final months of 2024.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5V8myrCzdIvEmpYZxc1mFf/a2aa473d6a6f1b0cbc9008c5fd2a7053/5Bullets_Inflation.png" alt="Moving in the Wrong Direction" />
&ldquo;There&rsquo;s nothing benign or comfortable about 3.0% inflation,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards.
&ldquo;That rate will cut the value of the dollar in half in 24 years. It will cut it in half again in another 24 years. That means in a 48-year working career from age 17 to age 65, the dollar will lose 75% of its purchasing power. What are you working for unless wages are going up faster than inflation is devaluing the dollar?&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" /><img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Unfortunately, &ldquo;the news on the unemployment front is even worse,&rdquo; says Jim.
Granted, the figures are woefully out of date by now. But even the available figures are concerning &mdash; an official unemployment rate of 4.1% in June, 4.2% in July and 4.3% in August.
That&rsquo;s still low by historical standards. But it&rsquo;s higher than at any time in 2023. And like inflation, it&rsquo;s trending in the wrong direction.
There&rsquo;s a handful of private-sector figures to work with. None of them is encouraging. The payroll firm ADP says employers added a meager 10,000 jobs during August, September and October.
And as mentioned here last week, the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas finds that employers cut over 153,000 jobs during October &mdash; the worst October on record since 2003.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Under the circumstances, Jim believes the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark fed funds rate again at its next meeting a month from now.
Accelerating inflation notwithstanding, the Fed is putting greater emphasis right now on the weakening job market.
Wall Street might interpret rate cuts as &ldquo;stimulative.&rdquo; But as Jim sees it, it&rsquo;s bad news. Markets are already driving many short-term interest rates lower without the Fed&rsquo;s help. That&rsquo;s a sign &ldquo;that growth is slowing, and the U.S. economy is heading into a recession (at worst) or sliding sideways (at best).&rdquo;
Jim is on guard for the stock market to react badly &mdash; which might easily drive a fear trade into gold. As we keep emphasizing, Jim recommends keeping 10% of your investable assets in physical gold.
Yes, gold prices are up substantially from where they were at the start of the year. But if you&rsquo;re not at 10% yet, it&rsquo;s still not too late to start. Use dollar-cost averaging: Buy a little bit every week or every month to take advantage of periodic price dips as you work your way up to 10%.
That way you&rsquo;re set no matter what the stock market does.
And on that score&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Post-Shutdown Stock Market
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The shutdown isn&rsquo;t over, but it&rsquo;s closer to being over now than at any time in the last 42 days &mdash; which historically bodes well for the stock market.
Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta has been adamant in recent days about how the end of a government shutdown typically signals a stock market rally.
On the Paradigm mobile app today, Enrique shared this chart from Nautilus research showing the post-shutdown performance of the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite going back to 1981. The little green circles indicate when each shutdown ended.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5rtxaJpgYtCNrddoBbG4HI/7c3f21c64f3a652f39e2cf4600d4247f/dailyfeed-111125-4.png" alt="Government Shutdown End Dates" />
The typical outcome is &ldquo;higher 90% of the time six months and one year later &mdash; with strong double-digit returns.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />But the shutdown&rsquo;s not over yet &mdash; and both the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq are in the red today.
Nothing major: At last check the S&amp;P remains over 6,800 and the Nasdaq is well over 23,000. And the Dow has rallied nearly a half percent.
<a id="3"></a>Congratulations are in order for Rickards&rsquo; Strategic Intelligence readers, who collected nearly 70% gains playing Intel in just over a year. &ldquo;Intel is sensitive to the economy. Its stock could correct due to rising recession risks,&rdquo; counsels analyst Dan Amoss.
Precious metals are digesting yesterday&rsquo;s big gains &mdash; gold still over $4,100 and silver comfortably above $50. Crude has rallied over a buck to $61.18.
But crypto is slumping, Bitcoin sinking toward $103,000 and Ethereum under $3,500.
Only one economic number of note came out today &mdash; and it merits a bullet of its own. Read on&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Why Is Good Help So Hard to Find?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Aside from rising jobless rates, something truly whacked-out is going on in the U.S. job market.
This morning the National Federation of Independent Business issued its monthly Small Business Optimism index. This survey, conducted regularly since 1973, offers a valuable snapshot into what&rsquo;s happening in Main Street America.
The headline number is a snooze: Optimism dipped from 98.8 in September to 98.2 in October &mdash; still slightly higher than the survey&rsquo;s long-term average. &ldquo;Owners report lower sales and reduced profits,&rdquo; says NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg.
Often the most eye-opening part of the survey is where owners are asked to identify their &ldquo;single most important problem&rdquo; from a list of 10 possibilities. At various times this year, the list has been topped by taxes, inflation and &ldquo;quality of labor.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In October, &ldquo;quality of labor&rdquo; shot up the charts. For many small-business owners, good help isn&rsquo;t just hard to find, it&rsquo;s nearly impossible.
Quality of labor was cited by 27% of respondents &mdash; up dramatically from 18% the month before. It hasn&rsquo;t been this high on the list since 29% in November 2021, the worst of the post-pandemic labor shortage.
Nothing else came close &mdash; taxes cited by 16%, inflation by 12%, poor sales by 10%.
Some detail the NFIB&rsquo;s report: &ldquo;Labor quality reported as the single most important problem was the highest in the construction, transportation and professional services industries&hellip; Nearly half (49%) of small businesses in the construction industry reported labor quality as their single most important problem, 22 points higher than for all firms.&rdquo;
The report is silent about why this might be the case. Each month&rsquo;s report includes comments from a cross-section of business owners. The only comment from the construction industry comes from Oregon, and it has nothing to do with labor quality: "Government continues to put more financial pressure on the construction business. There are more regulations and higher OSHA fines against the people who actually build this country."
At the risk of getting too far out over our skis&hellip; is it a case of small construction and transportation businesses losing labor from illegal migrants?
&ldquo;Perhaps,&rdquo; says Jim Rickards&rsquo; senior analyst Dan Amoss, &ldquo;there is an illegal immigrant dynamic here of self-deportation or moving to the underground/cash economy (this is a touchy subject, but economically important).&rdquo;
As long as the NFIB report is mute about the potential causes behind this phenomenon, we&rsquo;re hard-pressed to imagine it&rsquo;s anything else.
(Of course, we have small-business owners among our diverse readership. If you have any insights, please share: <a href="mailto:feedback@paradigmpressroom.com">feedback@paradigmpressroom.com</a>)
If our thesis is correct, there&rsquo;s the potential for a ripple effect to reach the big publicly traded homebuilders &mdash; whose costs of doing business could jump big-time.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Ring of Truth
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Your editor started the day spending the better part of 10 minutes trying to figure out if this screenshot is authentic&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2K0jPdyvANQLeVHFkR5NxY/12602a7688acf6fa0b72e9aa1f5e6eea/dailyfeed-111125-2.png" alt="White House Press Release" />
For sure, it went viral on social media, shared widely &mdash; including by people who voted for Trump last year.
&ldquo;Now it&rsquo;s ****ing 15 year car loans,&rdquo; tweeted Breck Worsham, who goes by the handle The Patriotic Blonde. &ldquo;I. CAN&rsquo;T. TAKE. IT.&rdquo;
As far as I can tell, there&rsquo;s nothing to it. If it were for real, corporate media would be reporting it. But a Google News search turns up nothing. Nor does anything turn up on the president&rsquo;s Truth Social feed &mdash; which is where you&rsquo;d expect to find it first if it were legit.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />So why mention it at all? Because it&rsquo;s a sign of the times. 
On the heels of the real and nearly-as-daft proposal for <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/cryptos-make-or-break-moment/#3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">50-year mortgages</a>, are 15-year auto loans that much more far-fetched?
Whoever devised the screenshot realized it had verisimilitude &mdash; the ring of truth.
It reminds me of an episode 20 years ago: The website Capitol Hill Blue reported that in a fit of anger, President George W. Bush snapped at a group of lawmakers, "Stop throwing the Constitution in my face! It&rsquo;s just a g&ndash;d&mdash;-- piece of paper!"
No one ever substantiated the account &mdash; and in fact Capitol Hill Blue retracted the story. But coming from the guy who signed the Patriot Act into law, it had the ring of truth, didn&rsquo;t it?
We chronicled a more recent instance in this space <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/who-planted-this-fake-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two years ago</a> &mdash; when Joe Biden supposedly said he was thinking about emptying the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Again, it was bonkers &mdash; but at the same time, almost believable.
The takeaway is this: Memes like the phony 15-year auto loans don&rsquo;t catch on unless there&rsquo;s already a receptive audience.
And there wouldn&rsquo;t be a receptive audience if there weren&rsquo;t a lot of economic distress out there&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Crypto Winter?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /><a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/cryptos-make-or-break-moment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">After yesterday&rsquo;s crypto-themed Bullet No. 1</a>, we heard from a member of our Omega Wealth Circle&hellip;
&ldquo;Dave, I invested in GBTC in my IRA back in 2018 after doing a similar analysis to what you showed, expecting it might go up 20X or more. It went up about 10X and I held on hoping for more, only to watch it go back down into the next trough. This time, I sold it back in August, missing the very top by about 10% (assuming the top for this cycle is in).
&ldquo;As many have noted, Bitcoin now tracks fairly closely with tech stocks, many of which appear to be in a bubble. No telling when that may pop, but even if the reason for the decline is different, I would not be surprised by a drop of 50&ndash;75% in Bitcoin (and tech stocks) over the next 12&ndash;18 months. Should that happen, I might well buy another Bitcoin ETF to try to ride the cycle again.
&ldquo;And with my GBTC proceeds I invested in silver miners, which are thus far up nicely, and would seem to me to have less downside for the moment. We shall see.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Hmmm&hellip; sell crypto, buy silver miners. Sounds like an intriguing pair trade!

fmf hero 111125

These Numbers Shouldn’t Be Rising

fmf 111025 hero

Crypto’s Make-or-Break Moment

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />No Bailout for You, OpenAI
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />OK, that didn&rsquo;t take long.
When we left you yesterday, we were agog at the notion that OpenAI &mdash; the company behind ChatGPT &mdash; was talking openly about taxpayer-backed loan guarantees to finance its expansion.
Federal loan guarantees would &ldquo;really drop the cost of financing,&rdquo; said OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar.
Gee, ya don&rsquo;t say!
The backlash on social media was so fierce that Friar had to issue a butt-covering &ldquo;clarification&rdquo; on her LinkedIn page. All she was really talking about when she used the word &ldquo;backstop,&rdquo; she said, was that &ldquo;American strength in technology will come from building real industrial capacity which requires the private sector and government playing their part.&rdquo;
We concluded our write-up with the observation that presumably someone in the White House took note of the torches-and-pitchforks reaction to Friar&rsquo;s sense of entitlement.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Oh, did someone ever notice. It got all the way up to David Sacks, the venture-capital guy who&rsquo;s now the White House AI and crypto czar. And he laid down the law&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7CDReemycfmRA5Pm7cdr2F/81abc72fa582a6c213fb67e47da24eb0/DavidSacksTweet.png" alt="Tweet" />
Sacks allowed Friar more grace than we did. &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t think anyone was actually asking for a bailout. (That would be ridiculous.)&rdquo;
<a id="2"></a>And he added this: &ldquo;That said, we do want to make permitting and power generation easier. The goal is rapid infrastructure buildout without increasing residential rates for electricity.&rdquo;
Good. We&rsquo;ve been sounding the alarm about AI and electricity in these digital pages for nearly two years now.
But reliable power isn&rsquo;t going to solve AI&rsquo;s most fundamental problem &mdash; which we&rsquo;ll tackle in Bullet No. 2&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />AI&rsquo;s &ldquo;Goodbye, AOL&rdquo; Moment
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Remember AOL? For many people in the mid-1990s, America Online was their training wheels for the internet.
Back then, &ldquo;AOL was the centralized network everyone knew,&rdquo; recalls Paradigm&rsquo;s AI authority James Altucher.
But over time, people discovered there was a whole new and exciting online world that existed outside of AOL&rsquo;s walled garden. And it was no more difficult to access, really, than AOL itself.
&ldquo;A decade later, AOL vanished, and the open internet built the modern world.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As James sees it, AI&rsquo;s most fundamental problem is that it&rsquo;s still stuck in its AOL phase. Everything is centralized. AI is functioning in its own walled garden.
&ldquo;If I want to start an AI company today, I need permission from Nvidia for chips, permission from VCs for funding and permission from governments for licenses.
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s the chokehold. That&rsquo;s what makes AI feel like it&rsquo;s already been captured &mdash; before it even matured.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Enter something called Bittensor. 
&ldquo;Since launch,&rdquo; says James, &ldquo;Bittensor has been proving that you can build companies without permission.
&ldquo;Not through OpenAI, not through Google&rsquo;s servers, but through a decentralized network where anyone &mdash; anywhere &mdash; can contribute compute, data or models&hellip; and earn.
&ldquo;You don&rsquo;t need anyone&rsquo;s blessing. You don&rsquo;t need venture capital. You just spin up a subnet &mdash; your own mini-network &mdash; and let anyone in the world compete to do the work.&rdquo;
If that sounds like something crypto-adjacent, you&rsquo;re absolutely right. Bittensor has a native token called TAO &mdash; whose price just hit a 10-month high while the rest of the crypto market was sinking.
The key is those subnets James mentioned: &ldquo;Each subnet is like a startup. Some detect deepfakes. Some train LLMs. Some build 3D models. Others trade predictions. Every subnet has its own token (&lsquo;alpha tokens&rsquo;), its own incentives and its own miners.
&ldquo;Here&rsquo;s the thing: to buy a subnet token, you need TAO. Every subnet purchase = TAO demand.
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s why we&rsquo;re seeing TAO rise while the rest of crypto falls.&rdquo;
TAO isn&rsquo;t up because of hype. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s up because a fundamental repricing is underway &mdash; one that reflects a deeper truth: The world is shifting from permissioned progress to permissionless progress. Bittensor is one project leading the way.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Missing Data
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />For a second time, Wall Street traders are missing out today on a first-Friday-of-the-month ritual &mdash; poring over the monthly job numbers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is affected by the &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; as much as most other agencies. And so there&rsquo;s something of a data void.
➢ By the way: I&rsquo;m noticing that &ldquo;Epstein shutdown&rdquo; is starting to catch on <a href="https://x.com/ImBreckWorsham/status/1986436503988297774" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in certain corners of social media</a>. I&rsquo;ll take credit <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/keep-your-crypto-composure#4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">for starting that</a>. Heh&hellip;
Stepping into the data void this week is the executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas. It issues a monthly job-cuts report. As it happens, job cuts soared in October to 153,074 &mdash; up 175% from October 2024.
In fact, this is the worst October report since 2003 &mdash; a month when the big box-office draw was a reboot of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre.
&ldquo;Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape,&rdquo; says Challenger&rsquo;s chief revenue officer Andy Challenger. &ldquo;At a time when job creation is at its lowest point in years, the optics of announcing layoffs in the fourth quarter are particularly unfavorable.&rdquo;
Meanwhile, there&rsquo;s a major economic number from China: Exports in October fell 1.1% in dollar terms year-over-year. It&rsquo;s the first decline since February. The number is something of a surprise &mdash; and at least for the time being, it looks like a one-off.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />What&rsquo;s been a generally rotten week for stocks isn&rsquo;t getting any better today.
The S&amp;P 500 is down another 1% to 6,649. The Dow is holding up better, the Nasdaq is faring worse.
Gold is up nearly 50 bucks to $4,024 and silver has roared 70 cents higher to $48.65. Crude is stabilizing from this week&rsquo;s sell-off at $59.60. Bitcoin hovers just over $101,000 and Ethereum a hair above $3,300.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Truth About Musk&rsquo;s Trillion
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Talk about a misleading headline.
Today&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal, front page, above the fold: &ldquo;Musk&rsquo;s Record Pay Plan Approved at Tesla. Investors vote in favor of $1 trillion package after CEO threatened to quit.&rdquo;
It&rsquo;s all true, as far as it goes. But it&rsquo;s very incomplete, says colleague Davis Wilson. And we&rsquo;ll hasten to add that Davis is no Musk fanboy: &ldquo;I&rsquo;ve said before that Tesla stock would probably trade around $50 if it weren&rsquo;t for him.&rdquo;
So here&rsquo;s the reality: &ldquo;This is not a $1 trillion payday. It&rsquo;s a performance-based plan tied to some of the hardest business goals ever set.&rdquo;
Musk didn&rsquo;t even ask for $1 trillion in TSLA stock. He asked for 25% of the company&rsquo;s voting power &mdash; up from roughly 15% now.
&ldquo;His goal is simple,&rdquo; Davis writes today at The Million Mission: &ldquo;He wants enough control to guide Tesla&rsquo;s long-term mission in AI, robotics and autonomy without being overruled by short-term investors or activists.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />And he&rsquo;s going to have to earn that control &mdash; via a series of stepped-up performance goals. The final step is for TSLA to achieve a market cap of $8.5 trillion. Right now it&rsquo;s about $1.5 trillion.
And he can&rsquo;t get there by playing accounting games. He also has to achieve the following milestones&hellip;
<ul>
<li>20 million vehicle deliveries (Tesla has delivered over 8 million so far)</li>
<li>10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions</li>
<li>1 million bots delivered</li>
<li>1 million robotaxis in operation.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;On the financial side,&rdquo; says Davis, &ldquo;Tesla must achieve between $50 billion and $400 billion in annual adjusted profit. For reference, last quarter&rsquo;s adjusted EBITDA was $4.2 billion.
&ldquo;He&rsquo;s got 10 years to reach these targets.&rdquo;
Can he do it? Tesla&rsquo;s board approved a pay package in 2018 that most observers thought was impossible to achieve. But Musk achieved every benchmark by 2021.
Davis&rsquo; bottom line: &ldquo;The headlines calling this a &lsquo;$1 trillion payday&rsquo; miss the point. It&rsquo;s not about how much Elon Musk might earn. It&rsquo;s about what Tesla will have to achieve for him to earn it.
&ldquo;If he wins, shareholders win bigger. If he loses, they lose nothing.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Appliances
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I have read with interest your ongoing correspondence/commentary with readers regarding refrigerators and how most appliances are now made overseas,&rdquo; begins today&rsquo;s mailbag.
&ldquo;One reader expressed her belief that today's refrigerators are made to last five or six years while older American-made refrigerators lasted much longer. I can't really speak to today's refrigerators and how long they hold up but I can tell you about my own fridge.
&ldquo;My fridge is a General Electric Frost Free model that came with my house, which was built in 1973 and in which I have lived since 1977, so I know it is original equipment. Not only does the fridge keep on going but the ice maker still works, too. I've been waiting for years for one or both of them to break down but so far that's a no-go. I shudder to think what would happen if I had to buy a new fridge since old reliable just keeps on going or what it would cost to replace or repair that old ice maker, which keeps on churning out ice cubes.
&ldquo;By the way, my General Electric stove, also from 1973, continues to serve on a daily basis. Over the past 48 years, I did have to replace my dishwasher, washing machine and clothes dryer, once each. The filter in the dryer needs to be replaced but that part is no longer made or available anywhere. I'd hate to have to replace the perfectly good dryer just because of a wire mesh filter.
&ldquo;I offer this information to verify and support the point made by your reader that the old U.S.-made products were far superior to today's models, at least as far as durability is concerned.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I bought a new Maytag washer this spring (anyone remember the Maytag repairman commercials?),&rdquo; writes another.
&ldquo;It is a Whirlpool product and made in America. It lasted exactly three months. Whirlpool owns Maytag and they use the local low bidder for warranty work. It took eight weeks to get it repaired. I don't think manufacturing location is the only factor in quality. The replacement parts were defective new out of the box two times.
&ldquo;Back in the good old days I would look in the local bargain finder and buy a used &lsquo;heavy duty&rsquo; washer or dryer. Brand didn't matter and it seemed like they lasted forever. My wife would be jonesing for a new set long before they expired.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I got a laugh out of your &lsquo;justifying&rsquo; purchasing a counter-top ice maker,&rdquo; a reader writes in response to my own fridge frustrations.
&ldquo;I could only &lsquo;justify&rsquo; spending money on some good old-fashioned ice trays after my LG ice maker stopped working after four years!&rdquo;
Dave: Yeah, that&rsquo;s where my mind was too at the outset. But like many appliances, the quality of ice cube trays ain&rsquo;t what it used to be!

fmf hero 110725

No Bailout for You, OpenAI

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />OpenAI Wants a Bailout
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s come to this: The company behind ChatGPT is so poorly managed it wants a taxpayer backstop. You know, like the too-big-to-fail banks.
From the AFP newswire&hellip;
<blockquote>ChatGPT creator OpenAI, the world&rsquo;s largest private company, is asking the U.S. government to provide loan guarantees for its massive infrastructure expansion that will eventually cost more than $1 trillion.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Speaking at a Wall Street Journal business conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar explained that government backing could help attract the enormous investment needed for AI computing and infrastructure, given the uncertain lifespan of AI data centers.</blockquote>
<blockquote>&ldquo;This is where we&rsquo;re looking for an ecosystem of banks, private equity, maybe even governmental,&rdquo; Friar said.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Federal loan guarantees would &ldquo;really drop the cost of financing,&rdquo; she explained, enabling OpenAI and its investors to borrow more money at lower rates to meet the company&rsquo;s ambitious targets.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Unlike AFP, much of the financial media &ldquo;buried the lead,&rdquo; as the saying goes.
The Wall Street Journal, sponsor of the conference where Friar spoke, thought it was more newsworthy when she said taking OpenAI public is &ldquo;not in the cards right now.&rdquo;
Bloomberg&rsquo;s angle was that Friar thinks the talk of an AI bubble is overblown and the market should demonstrate more &ldquo;exuberance&rdquo; about the sector.
But on social media&hellip; everyone knows the score.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/56ahIUv3OeIR60ReDPPUJG/e0d786bc8989312055127e46aa4aa944/fmf_rudy_tweet.png" alt="tweet 1" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/42Wsb6J6Su3h11mGhDLQKB/c6242b465c9c6f5ecb5b74faa361fe74/Fmf_tweet2.png" alt="tweet 2" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/693xKoJggzN3HBudERSQL/e8cf722a2f1f060c005331a3ec5303b4/fmf_tweet3.png" alt="tweet 3" />
The backlash was such that Friar tried to walk back her remarks in a LinkedIn post.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1t9iXWEcn41LsUrTXauY7J/b469bf310b80d77481bd91871f4c1c51/fmf_linkedInPost.png" alt="LinkedIn Post" />
Yeah, too late.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Then again, maybe Friar was floating a trial balloon?
Maybe the endgame is that the federal government takes a stake in OpenAI, the way it has this year with Intel, U.S. Steel, MP Materials and so on.
It&rsquo;d be a win-win for OpenAI and the feds&hellip;
<ul>
<li>OpenAI gets a sorely needed cash infusion. As mentioned here in September, how is OpenAI going to spend $300 billion on a deal with Oracle over the next five years when its revenue this year will total $13 billion? And that&rsquo;s just one of OpenAI&rsquo;s announced deals!</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The government gets to call the shots on the platform with 75% market share of generative AI chatbots.</li>
</ul>
But it&rsquo;d be a lose-lose for taxpayers and ChatGPT users&hellip;
<ul>
<li>If OpenAI&rsquo;s reputed $1 trillion valuation is vastly overblown, Uncle Sam is likely to overpay for the acquisition</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>ChatGPT could easily become a tool for censorship and surveillance &mdash; either by the current administration or a future one.</li>
</ul>
We&rsquo;ll see what shakes out in the weeks and months ahead. Presumably someone in the White House took notice of this torches-and-pitchforks moment as it unfolded over the last 24 hours.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5TysVQZKz70jCJGiMSWEKQ/f2e81858791d7c4865849e7571ac2aee/fmf_trumpMeme.png" alt="Trump Meme" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />FAA Grounds Airline Stocks
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Airline stocks are taking a hit now that the &ldquo;partial government shutdown&rdquo; is about to curb the number of planes in the sky.
As we mentioned on Tuesday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy was threatening &ldquo;mass cancellations&rdquo; of flights if air traffic controllers continued to call in sick while they&rsquo;re not getting paid.
Yesterday, the Federal Aviation Administration made it official. Flight capacity at the nation&rsquo;s 40 biggest airports will be cut by 10% over the next few days. The details aren&rsquo;t yet public but according to the Reuters newswire the most likely scenario is a 4% cut tomorrow, gradually ramping up to 10% by next week.
At last check, American Airlines is down 2.9% on the day and United Airlines 2%. Delta and Southwest are holding up somewhat better, both down about 1.5%.
➢ Shutdown update: We might have to recalibrate our call that the shutdown would be over by the end of this week. According to the Axios site, Capitol Hill Democrats are strategizing today &mdash; and Connecticut&rsquo;s Chris Murphy is among nine Dem senators urging their colleagues to continue holding out.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Actually, Delta and Southwest are doing no worse than your typical Nasdaq stock today.
Yesterday&rsquo;s mild rally had no staying power. As we write the Nasdaq is down 1.4% from yesterday&rsquo;s close and the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 0.9% to 6,738. For perspective, 6,738 was a record high only a month ago &mdash; but it&rsquo;s down 2.2% from just last week.
&ldquo;I'm still expecting a melt-up -- but I don't want to be early on betting on a turnaround!&rdquo; Greg Guenthner writes his Trading Desk readers. &ldquo;We'll let the charts guide us.&rdquo;
Precious metals are digesting their gains from earlier this week &mdash; gold at $3,976 and silver at $47.82. Crude is sinking further below $60, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate now $59.25.
Crypto can&rsquo;t catch a break. Bitcoin is hanging out at $101,545 while Ethereum has sunk below $3,300.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Tariff Refunds
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s the day after the Supreme Court hearing that might end up with the justices nixing the Trump tariff regime &mdash; at least in its present form.
As mentioned here yesterday, both conservatives and liberals piled on Solicitor General John Sauer as he made his case for the Trump administration.
&ldquo;You want to say that tariffs are not taxes, but that&rsquo;s exactly what they are,&rdquo; said liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor. As we learned in school, new taxes must originate in the House of Representatives.
Conservative Neil Gorsuch posed an eye-opening hypothetical under a Democratic administration &mdash; citing the language of the law the Trump White House is leaning on.
&ldquo;Could the president impose a 50% tariff on gas-powered cars and auto parts to deal with the &lsquo;unusual and extraordinary threat&rsquo; from abroad of climate change?&rdquo;
In so many words, Sauer sheepishly said yes.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /><a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/tariffs-on-trial" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As mentioned here two months ago</a>, there&rsquo;s now a distinct possibility the federal government would have to issue refunds for tariffs already collected.
And that&rsquo;s not chump change: Uncle Sam&rsquo;s tariff revenue in fiscal year 2025 &mdash; including eight full months of the Trump administration &mdash; totaled $195 billion. That&rsquo;s a substantial rise from fiscal 2024&rsquo;s total of $77 billion.
But the story is a bit more complex than that &mdash; as our Jim Rickards wrote his Strategic Intelligence readers recently.
&ldquo;If the U.S. Supreme Court rules that Trump did not have the legal authority he claimed to impose tariffs, then the court might impose remedies, including a refund of tariffs collected.
&ldquo;However, it is also possible the Supreme Court could hold that Trump lacked legal authority but then returns the case to a lower court for the determination of remedies, which could include refunds&hellip;
&ldquo;If the court decides Trump acted illegally, it is likely that Trump will quickly turn to another statute for authority and keep the tariffs collected on the basis of such other statute. That could result in further litigation over the alternative authority.
&ldquo;In all cases, Trump&rsquo;s team will hold onto the tariffs until all legal theories are exhausted. Trump is likely to win in the long run on one theory or another.
&ldquo;Therefore, it seems likely the tariffs will never be refunded.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Follow-Up: Pennies&hellip; and the Cash Economy
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Intriguing: The owner of 25 Burger King franchises in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio figures that 60% of his customers pay in cash.
This tidbit turns up in today&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal &mdash; which is picking up our theme from earlier this week about the developing penny shortage.
By order of the Trump administration, penny production at the U.S. Mint ended last May. A shortage that wasn&rsquo;t expected to develop until next year is here now. A Baltimore-area Burger King operator is asking employees to pick up rolls of pennies anytime they go to the bank &mdash; seeing as the franchisee&rsquo;s amored-car operator is no longer delivering them.
But the bit about 60% of BK customers paying cash &mdash; at least for one small string of Midwestern franchises &mdash; is an eye-opener.
So we dug into some Federal Reserve figures: Cash was used for about 26% of all payments in the pre-pandemic year of 2019. By 2023&ndash;24, that figure had fallen to 16%.
Cash remains popular among the 55-and-over set&hellip; among low-income households&hellip; and for small-value purchases (under $25). A 2024 Fed report suggests the decline in cash use might have reached a &ldquo;floor&rdquo; for the time being.
Cash still has the advantage of privacy in a way digital payments do not. Earlier this year we mused over how the Trump administration might have reason <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/what-if-trump-breaks-this-promise" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to do away with cash</a>. We&rsquo;ll have an update on the theme either tomorrow or next week&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Mamdani, Gold, Planned Obsolesence
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Thank you for calling the moment honestly around <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/whos-afraid-of-zohran-mamdani" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mamdani&rsquo;s election</a>,&rdquo; an appreciative reader writes. &ldquo;You cut through all the emotional noise and put your finger on the real issue: &lsquo;the decades-long dispossession of the middle and working classes by connected elites.&rsquo;
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s the heart of what&rsquo;s driving so much frustration in this country. The &lsquo;taking game&rsquo; has been running for a long time &mdash; wealth and power extracted upward with the full participation of the political class &mdash; while everyday Americans are told to fight each other over scraps. You&rsquo;re one of the few willing to name the dynamic directly rather than get lost in the partisan theatrics designed to distract from the truth.
&ldquo;I appreciate your clear-eyed analysis. It helps people see the game that is actually being played.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Interesting graph of central bank gold purchases and interesting commentary,&rdquo; writes a Strategic Intelligence subscriber after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/57-days" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;One additional thing to point out though. While the tonnage of gold purchased by the banks has gone down (maybe by 20% if the year ends at 850 metric tons?), by another measure (U.S. dollars spent by central banks on gold), I wonder if gold purchases actually increased.&nbsp;
&ldquo;With the higher U.S. dollar prices of gold in 2025, it would take more money for the central banks to buy the same amount of gold. If the amount of money that a central bank has for buying gold stays the same, then, at a higher price, they must buy less.
&ldquo;Love the 5!&rdquo;
Dave responds: Undoubtedly true. That&rsquo;s why the tonnage totals might well have topped out for now. But in no way does it suggest the central bank gold-buying spree is over!
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I believe refrigerators were made to fail after about six years due to energy requirement changes here in the U.S.,&rdquo; a reader observes. &ldquo;The motors and compressors struggle.&rdquo;
(See, this all started the other day with an item about Samsung &ldquo;smart&rdquo; fridges serving up ads on their touchscreens. But since then it&rsquo;s touched a nerve about the durability of major appliances.)
&ldquo;Further, these appliances are nearly all made overseas. LG is Korean and HUGE washer, dryer and refrigerator maker. All inferior to previously made U.S. brands. Bah humbug.&rdquo;
Dave: Yeah, and don&rsquo;t get me started on the built-in icemakers, whose lifespans seem inevitably shorter than those of the main unit. Here in our household, the icemaker in our circa-2012 Maytag model hasn&rsquo;t worked for years &mdash; but we can&rsquo;t justify the cost of either repair or replacement.
We could, however, justify the cost of a modest countertop icemaker. Hopefully, it&rsquo;s not one more item for the scrap heap in a few more years, right?

fmf hero 110625

OpenAI Wants a Bailout

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />57 Days
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Yesterday&rsquo;s media freakout appears to be already over.
When we left you 24 hours ago, shares of Palantir Technologies were selling off despite boffo sales and earnings. CNBC and the rest of the conventional-wisdom crowd were suddenly concerned about valuation &mdash; not only for notoriously pricey PLTR but any company riding the AI wave. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day down 1.2%, the Nasdaq 2%.
Going into this morning&rsquo;s trade, it&rsquo;s almost as if CNBC was disappointed that the sell-off ended nearly as soon as it began: &ldquo;Stock futures are little changed, but AMD and some other tech stocks remain under pressure.&rdquo;
Amid this backdrop we step back to see where the market is headed for the final 57 days of 2025.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;History would imply we have a great couple of months ahead of us,&rdquo; says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta.
Seasonality is part of it, for sure. &ldquo;November is the best month of the year for the market, and December is another seasonally strong month.
&ldquo;Taxes, year-end compensation for money managers and earnings all play a role. Whatever the reason, stocks often finish the year on a high note.&rdquo;
But there&rsquo;s another factor at work. Enrique calls it &ldquo;situationality.&rdquo;
&ldquo;This is simply the effect of recent stock market performance on what happens next.&rdquo;
Going into November, the S&amp;P 500 logged six straight months of gains &mdash; and the Nasdaq, seven.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;So the question now is how does the market perform heading into year-end when it&rsquo;s already running hot?&rdquo; Enrique says.
For answers, he directs our attention to a table of stock market performance in years when the S&amp;P is already up 15% or more through the first 10 months of the year.
According to Carson Investment Research, this has happened 22 times since 1950 &mdash; including 2025.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2FMA4vXQAvOF0hvM2fuKbz/2f92ed580dc71ab7959acd0d2dd2f38c/fmf_indexReturns.png" alt="Carson Research Chart" />
In every instance but one, the index was higher on Dec. 31 than it was on Oct. 31. The lone exception is 1986.
That&rsquo;s 95% odds of it happening again this year.
Carson&rsquo;s number-crunching also turns up four instances since 1950 in which the S&amp;P was up every month between May and October.
&ldquo;Each of the previous three times this happened,&rdquo; says Enrique, &ldquo;the S&amp;P has been up over the next two months with an average return of 6%.&rdquo;
Bottom line: &ldquo;The combination of seasonality and situationality has lined up perfectly this year &mdash; and history suggests it&rsquo;s a powerful setup.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Market Today: All Ears on D.C.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Rare is the day when investment professionals keep an eye on their screens while also keeping an ear on Supreme Court arguments&hellip; but today&rsquo;s the day.
The Trump tariff regime is on the docket &mdash; in a case many 5 Bullets readers first learned about six months ago, well before the Supreme Court agreed to take the case.
It&rsquo;s always dicey to make assumptions about how the justices will rule based on the questions they pose during oral arguments. But both conservative and liberal justices piled on Solicitor General John Sauer as he made the case for the Trump administration.
&ldquo;You say tariffs are not taxes, but that&rsquo;s exactly what they are,&rdquo; said liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor.
No timetable for the court to issue an opinion. But it&rsquo;s a safe bet a ruling will come sometime before the flurry of decisions that usually takes place at the end of the court&rsquo;s term in June.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In the meantime, the major U.S. stock indexes are clawing back some of yesterday&rsquo;s losses.
The S&amp;P 500 is up over half a percent at last check &mdash; back over 6,800. The Nasdaq&rsquo;s gain is stronger, the Dow&rsquo;s weaker. That said, &ldquo;I think it's a bit premature to call &lsquo;the low&rsquo; on this pullback right here,&rdquo; Greg Guenthner tells his Trading Desk readers.
<a id="3"></a>
The big economic number of the day is the monthly jobs report from ADP, the big payroll firm &mdash; which takes on outsized significance this month while the government shutdown is ongoing and there will be no report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics come Friday.
ADP reports 42,000 new jobs for the month &mdash; more than expected, and the first gain after two months of job losses. Alas, most of that hiring came at big firms; small and medium-sized businesses continue to cut personnel.
Elsewhere, crude has slipped under $60 a barrel. Crypto is stabilizing for the moment, Bitcoin at $103,453 and Ethereum at $3,420.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Central Banks and Gold: Still Stacking
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It looks as if the gold-buying binge by central banks is easing &mdash; if only a bit.
The World Gold Council is out with its quarterly figures of gold purchases by central banks. Here&rsquo;s the background: The world&rsquo;s central banks have helped propel gold prices higher every year since 2022. That&rsquo;s when Russia invaded Ukraine and the U.S. government imposed draconian sanctions on Russia, seizing the dollar-based assets of Russia&rsquo;s central bank.
Other governments on less-than-friendly terms with Washington wondered if they might be next &mdash; and they opted to start stacking gold rather than U.S. Treasuries. As Paradigm&rsquo;s Jim Rickards is fond of reminding us, &ldquo;Gold is a physical nondigital asset that cannot be stolen, frozen or seized provided it is in safe storage.&rdquo;
So there&rsquo;s the context for this chart. Through the first three quarters of 2025, central banks have purchased 634 metric tons of gold.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2KKC47TP3EoPuzWBwz3ux7/b49a5e3cbd7a19ec78a140ec4142602c/5Bullets_Chart_110525.png" alt="central bank gold purchases chart" />
Assuming the buying during the current quarter continues at the pace of the previous three, the year-end total for 2025 would be just shy of 850 metric tons. That&rsquo;s lower than the total in each of the last three years, but still substantially higher than anytime in the decade before 2022.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;This persistent official demand continues to limit downside volatility,&rdquo; observes Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark&rsquo;s Saxo Bank, and one of the smartest commodities minds outside of Paradigm.
Like every other observer of the precious metals space, Hansen said gold raced up too far too fast in October.
The mood now, he tells Kitco News, &ldquo;has shifted from exuberance to reflection, with traders reassessing how much of the 2025 narrative &mdash; rate cuts, fiscal stress, geopolitical hedging and central bank demand &mdash; has already been priced in&hellip;
&ldquo;Once this corrective phase runs its course, the same forces that fuelled this year&rsquo;s rally &mdash; debt, inflation, and diversification demand&mdash;are likely to reassert themselves, making the next meaningful leg higher a 2026 story.&rdquo;
In the meantime, gold is climbing back toward the $4,000 mark &mdash; the bid up $52 to $3,983. And silver&rsquo;s up a buck, back over $48 again.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Triumph of &ldquo;the CIA Democrats&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />After dropping seven figures of his personal fortune <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/whos-afraid-of-zohran-mamdani" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trying to defeat Zohran Mamdani&rsquo;s bid for mayor of New York</a>, hedge fund bigwig Bill Ackman seems oddly&hellip; at peace?
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/27OIcLf6wdGjRKgx7Anvqx/daddf30c5cf85b669d12377616a36d4a/fmf_MelTweet.png" alt="tweet" />
Mamdani&rsquo;s win is no surprise. &ldquo;Pass the popcorn,&rdquo; a reader wrote us ahead of Election Day.
In <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/the-socialist-sandbox" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yesterday&rsquo;s </a><a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/the-socialist-sandbox" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rude Awakening</a>, Sean Ring did a lovely job elaborating on a brief comment of mine last week: What&rsquo;s so bad about Mamdani becoming mayor? Let him proceed with his crackpot schemes so the rest of the world can see how badly they fail.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Meanwhile, &ldquo;the CIA Democrats&rdquo; won both governorships up for grabs yesterday.
Rewind to the 2018 midterm elections: Journalist Patrick Martin noticed an unusual number of U.S. House candidates with backgrounds in intelligence, the military or national security &mdash; all running as Democrats in competitive districts.
In a series of deeply researched articles for the World Socialist Web Site &mdash; you never know where you&rsquo;ll find quality news analysis! &mdash; Martin counted 46 such candidates he dubbed &ldquo;the CIA Democrats.&rdquo; Of those 46 candidates, 30 won their primaries and 11 won in the general election &mdash; the critical margin that handed Democrats control of the House for the latter half of Donald Trump&rsquo;s first term.
Were it not for the CIA Democrats, Trump&rsquo;s first impeachment might have never happened. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was cool to the idea throughout 2019 &mdash; until seven of the 11 CIA Democrats signed an open letter calling for proceedings to begin.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />And now two of the letter&rsquo;s seven signatories are ascending to the governor&rsquo;s office &mdash; having campaigned against Trump as much as against their Republican opponents.
Former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger won Virginia by 16 percentage points. And in New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill &mdash; a former Navy helicopter pilot fluent in Russian and Arabic &mdash; won by a 13-point margin.
The outcome in the Garden State is stunning. The Republican candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, nearly won four years ago over incumbent Democrat (and Goldman Sachs alum) Phil Murphy. Even in deep-blue New Jersey, voters were fed up with COVID lockdowns, restrictions and mandates.
That was then and this is now. Supposedly the lesson for Democrats in 2024 was that they had to be for something and not just against Trump. But after nine months of Trump 47, maybe &ldquo;against Trump&rdquo; is enough after all.
Where from here? The past is prologue&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6YO7sRiQGLYH25Hce6qpRO/d7415075a95a16b515d5fd385a0aee68/fmf_CernovichTweet.png" alt="cernovich tweet" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Pennies, Samsungs, Mamdani
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Canada ended penny production years ago,&rdquo; a reader writes from the Great White North after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/media-claptrap-vs-making-money" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>. &ldquo;They did just as you said and rounded up or down.
&ldquo;I never heard the obvious stated once: The govt of Canada inflated the currency so much that the penny was near worthless.
&ldquo;Glad to hear you had luck with your Samsung TVs. The only Samsung I would buy is a phone. Low-end Samsung appliances are poor quality. High-end Samsung appliances are worse.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Indeed, the point of your Mamdani piece seems to have been missed,&rdquo; a reader writes after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/whos-afraid-of-zohran-mamdani" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last Tuesday&rsquo;s edition</a> and <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/data-centers-in-space" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Monday&rsquo;s mailbag</a>.
&ldquo;I shared it with a friend who also said, &lsquo;What&rsquo;s your point?&rsquo; (Funny thing is that he has lived in the NYC region since the early &rsquo;80s.)
&ldquo;For me, it was a great recap and contextualizing of how and why we have the candidacy of Mamdani.
&ldquo;My parents came to New York in the mid-&rsquo;50s and that&rsquo;s where I grew up. (I left &lsquo;The City&rsquo; back in the &rsquo;80s.)
&ldquo;So I much appreciated the memory jog. For sadly, memory appears to be vestigial for most Americans. One reason they can run the same plays on us over and over.&rdquo;
Dave responds: The point of the piece was right there toward the end: Mamdani&rsquo;s rise is about more than the simple but alluring narrative of &ldquo;free stuff&rdquo; and &ldquo;tax the rich.&rdquo; It&rsquo;s about the decades-long dispossession of the middle and working classes by connected elites. Anyone who didn&rsquo;t see the point didn&rsquo;t want to see the point.
In any event, it&rsquo;s hilarious to watch Bill Ackman suddenly find his Zen about Mamdani. Perhaps he&rsquo;s come to the same realization as our favorite political reporter Michael Tracey.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/215ssTHSJFst3jorvpsGNc/c0210e44ff68678eb31a8e28a51ca169/fmf_TraceyTweet.png" alt="tweet" />
We give Tracey the last word today: &ldquo;The polls in NJ were catastrophically bad! Enough polls already! Parasitic industry.&rdquo;