Blackout Nation

U.S. Energy’s March Milestone

The U.S. reached a historic energy milestone: For the first time, renewable sources generated over 50% of the nation’s electricity in the month of March, surpassing fossil fuels which accounted for 49.2% — the lowest share ever recorded. 

This milestone was driven largely by rapid growth in solar and wind power, with solar output increasing 37% and wind 12% compared to March 2024.

But before celebrating, it’s worth stepping back and asking: What does this shift really mean for Americans who rely on stable, affordable power?

Unlike coal or natural gas plants that provide steady “baseload” power, solar and wind are intermittent. They depend on weather conditions and can’t quickly ramp up output to meet sudden changes in demand.

This limitation was starkly illustrated last month when Spain and Portugal, where renewables supply over 70% of electricity, experienced a major blackout.

The outage, in fact, was triggered by a sudden drop in renewable power generation combined with the temporary shutdown of nuclear and natural gas plants that normally stabilize the grid.

As renewables dominate more of the grid, the risk of failure grows — without adequate backup systems.

Congress is responding with bipartisan legislation, including the Preventing Power Outages Act, which would fund upgrades to grid infrastructure, especially in states with less reliable electricity service.

For instance, in Texas alone, power demand is expected to more than double by 2031, driven partly by high-energy consumers like AI data centers.

To meet its own growing AI energy demand, Elementl Power and Google announced a partnership this morning, with Google committing early-stage funding for three planned nuclear sites.

“Google will have the option to buy the power once the sites are up and running,” says CNBC. “Each site will generate at least 600 megawatts of power capacity.”

(To put that number in perspective, that’s enough capacity to supply electricity to around 300,000–480,000 average U.S. homes annually.)

So while renewable energy surpassed fossil fuels in U.S. electricity generation in March, the intermittent nature of solar and wind highlights the need for reliable baseload power, including from sources like nuclear energy. At present, nuclear energy remains a critical energy backbone, providing about 20% of U.S. electricity.

Among Paradigm analysts, our trading pro Enrique Abeyta has been out front spotting profit opportunities in this intersection of AI and power demand. We’ll reserve names and tickers for his paying subscribers — but one name for your consideration today is Constellation Energy (CEG).

A leader in nuclear power, CEG operates in the lucrative field of “independent power producers” that aren’t regulated utilities. And earlier this year, readers of The Maverick bagged 11% gains on CEG in only nine days. Enrique is on the lookout for an attractive entry point to jump back in.

As for Q1 2025, CEG announced strong results — reporting adjusted operating earnings of $2.14 per share, a 17.6% increase year-over-year. And the company affirmed full-year EPS forward guidance between $8.9 and $9.6.

Strategic moves in nuclear plant upgrades as well as the acquisition of Calpine — America’s largest producer of electricity from natural gas and geothermal energy — position CEG to meet rising energy demand, from AI data centers and beyond. 

For investors seeking exposure to a company at the forefront of reliable power, with solid financial momentum, CEG offers compelling potential.

As for the March energy milestone, it’s not a signal to abandon fossil fuels entirely. Instead, it’s a vital reminder that America’s future energy generation will come from a complex blend of sources — to ensure reliable, affordable power.

It’s a story with a long arc. We’ve been on it since early 2024 and it still hasn’t reached mainstream awareness. We’ll stay with it here in these 5 Bullets.

Oil’s Price Plunge

The recent swoon in oil prices reflects the bearish interplay of ample supply and subdued demand amid a sluggish global backdrop. Byron King, Paradigm’s expert geologist and self-described “rock kicker,” underscores how oil demand has not rebounded as robustly as expected since the pandemic.

This is largely due to a global-scale recession and stagflation — inflation coupled with stagnant growth — rooted in pandemic shutdowns and expansive federal spending under the Biden administration.

Byron further points out that low oil prices benefit many sectors, including transportation, mining and agriculture. But these low prices pose a serious threat to oil companies — which will curtail future drilling and capital investment.

Byron reminds that extracting oil is costly and technically challenging, especially when it comes to fracking, which accounts for over 70% of U.S. oil production. With oil priced below $60 per barrel, many operations barely break even! So a steady price decline risks reducing output, particularly in key regions like the Texas Permian Basin.

Adding to this bearish outlook, OPEC+ has increased production beyond quotas, driven by member countries’ need for revenue despite lower prices.

Simultaneously, U.S. tariffs and retaliatory trade tensions have dampened economic growth prospects, further weakening demand and pressuring prices downward.

Byron summarizes one final dilemma: Political leaders love low fuel prices… Yet such low prices undermine the economics of oil production. “Politicians can’t have it both ways,” he adds, highlighting the tension between cheap energy versus sustainable supply.

The price of oil is sliding again today: down 1.20% to $58.35 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. As for precious metals, gold is down 1% to $3,387.40 per ounce. (More on the price of gold in a moment.) Silver, in the meantime, is down 1.70% to $32.80.

But the U.S. stock market is in the green — at least two out of three major stock indexes ain’t bad. The outlier? The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 0.40% to 17,610. The Dow is up 0.55% to 41,050 while the S&P 500 is hanging on by a thread, up just 0.05% to 5,600.

Last, things are looking up for crypto; at the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 1.55% to $96,500, and Ethereum is up 0.85% to $1,800.

Gold and “Stealth QE”

“If you think the Fed’s only job is fiddling with interest rates, you’re missing the real story,” says editor Sean Ring at the Rude Awakening this morning. Most notably, Sean points to the price of gold — which leapt $100 yesterday!

Mainstream outlet Reuters chalks up gold’s massive one-day rally to “post-holiday buying from China and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on pharmaceutical imports.”

But Sean has the real story: It’s all about the Fed’s biggest one-day purchase of U.S. Treasury debt since 2021.

“The Fed bought over $20 billion in bonds,” he emphasizes. “That’s right. Even with QT (quantitative tightening) supposedly underway, the Fed is still a net buyer of U.S. government debt.

Source: X, @1CoastalJournal

“And that’s why gold rallied over $100,” he says. “If you’re wondering how this is connected, let me explain it simply…

“The Fed printed over $20 billion out of thin air. Then they took those freshly cut dollars and bought U.S. Treasury bonds to help shore up the bond auction.

“These bonds now sit on the Fed’s growing balance sheet,” Sean says. “Investors will buy gold to counter the inflationary effects of the Fed’s bond buying,

“Because the markets aren’t as dumb as Jay Powell thinks, they bought gold because they know this is a quantitative easing move, not tightening.

“The Fed’s $20.4 billion purchase of these 3-year notes through the System Open Market Account (SOMA) is its largest daily bond acquisition since 2021.

“By doing this, the Fed signaled a shift toward liquidity support amid a $47 billion Treasury auction. In other words, if the U.S. Treasury can’t raise funds, the Fed will step in whenever needed. And that, my friend, is inflationary.

“Following a $3.5 billion discount window injection the prior week, the Fed is quietly supporting the Treasury market, a tactic investors label as ‘stealth QE’ (quantitative easing). This strategy is reminiscent of when the Fed balanced QT with unofficial liquidity boosts.”

Sean adds: “Jay Powell’s press conference today will almost certainly be an irrelevance. Why? Because the Fed’s balance sheet tells the real story.

“Despite all the talk of unwinding, the Fed’s emergency lending facilities — BTFP, reverse repos and assorted backdoor liquidity windows — remain active. And now, $20.4 billion in Treasury purchases shows they’re still papering over cracks in the system.

“This isn’t easing by name,” Sean concludes. “It’s easing by necessity.” (To read Sean’s masterful — and totally non-mainstream — gold explainer, you can find it here in its entirety.)

Kashmir on the Brink

The long-standing Kashmir conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan has taken a dangerous turn this week, with both sides exchanging threats of war.

As journalist Eric Margolis explains, this dispute is one of the oldest in the world. Kashmir, a beautiful mountainous region, is claimed by both Islamabad and Delhi, and has been the cause of three wars and many clashes for centuries.

Since 1947, Kashmir has been divided between India and Pakistan, with India controlling the larger part, which is unique as a Muslim-majority state within India.

Since the 1980s, Kashmiri Muslims have fought to either join Pakistan or gain independence, leading to a heavy military presence of 500,000 Indian troops and an equal number of paramilitary police.

Most recently, we noted last week that gunmen attacked a group of Indian tourists in Kashmir in April — 26 people were killed. India’s politicians are “loudly demanding revenge strikes against Pakistan,” Margolis notes, while Pakistan seeks support from China.

Meanwhile, both countries have nuclear weapons on high alert, pointed at major cities, creating a terrifying risk of nuclear war. This volatile mix, says Margolis — and we would concur — makes the Kashmir conflict one of the most dangerous in the world today.

Luck Be a Lady

A Bronx all-girls Catholic prep school was on the brink of closure… until casino giant Bally’s swooped in with an $8.5 million rescue package.

Bally’s, aiming to build a casino mega-complex nearby, bought the Preston High School’s property and is leasing it back for a mere $1 per year for 25 years. Bally’s also pledged $1 million for school upgrades and legal fees.

Proving that saving a neighborhood school — and planning a casino — can go (awkwardly) hand in hand…

Source: CBS News New York, YouTube

Attorney General Letitia James brokered the deal after community uproar and a rejected initial offer. Bally’s chairperson Soo Kim, a New Yorker at heart, insists that keeping the school open helps property values. Because nothing says “great neighborhood” like a thriving school… and casino.

The catch: “Though it is currently still under the leadership of Sisters of the Divine Compassion, the deal also calls for the school to transition to independence from the Sisters,” says an article at Gothamist.

So while the Bronx school dodges closure, it’s now got a casino developer as a landlord… Jackpot?

Best regards,

Emily Clancy
Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets