Dear 5 Bullets Reader,
On this low-trading-volume day &ndash; sandwiched between a federal holiday and a weekend &ndash; we&rsquo;re changing things up.
Earlier this spring, I gathered in Washington, D.C. with many of my Paradigm Press colleagues for a conference at the Watergate Hotel &ndash; the &ldquo;scene of the crime&rdquo; that brought down President Richard Nixon 50 years ago this summer.
One morning, I was joined by a video crew in Room 214 &ndash; known to history as &ldquo;the Scandal Room.&rdquo; It&rsquo;s where G. Gordon Liddy and E. Howard Hunt monitored the progress of the break-in at the attached Watergate office complex on June 17, 1972.
What followed was a &ldquo;confessional&rdquo; of sorts.
I was asked for some candid reflections on camera about the political/social atomsphere then versus now&hellip; censorship of social media&hellip; and corruption in corporate media.
It runs just over 20 minutes. There&rsquo;s nothing here that was scripted. The questions were not given to me in advance. As a result, I surprised even myself with some of the answers!
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One point of clarification: This interview was recorded before <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/supreme-cowards">the Supreme Court&rsquo;s disturbing </a><a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/supreme-cowards">Murthy v. Missouri </a><a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/supreme-cowards">decision</a> issued last week.
But if anything, the ruling makes this video even more timely. Click the screenshot above to start watching. And as always, thanks for your time and attention.
Best regards,
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

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Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

There’s nothing here that was scripted. The questions were not given to me in advance. As a result, I surprised even myself with some of the answers!

5 BULLETS: Confession Time!

Confession Time!

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" /> When the Stars Align (Gold Stocks)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Don&rsquo;t look now, but gold is on track today to notch its highest weekly close ever.
Yes, gold topped $3,500 for a nanosecond about a month ago&hellip; but the weekly closes are a better indication of the long-term trend. The bid is up $64 this morning to $3,358.
That&rsquo;s meaningful, especially going into the proverbial &ldquo;long holiday weekend.&rdquo;
Gold-mining stocks are rising in sympathy, the HUI index of mining stocks up to 396 as we write. Better yet, the gold stocks are defying a downdraft in the broad stock market. (More about that later.) By next week the HUI might be approaching levels last seen in 2013.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Are gold-mining stocks set to take off for the foreseeable future due to the gold bull market?&rdquo; a reader recently wrote our Jim Rickards.
In his weekly Q&amp;A email for Strategic Intelligence readers, Jim answers with a definitive yes.
&ldquo;The opportunity to purchase high-quality mining assets at such a steep discount to the gold price that is making significant gains is a great investment strategy.
&ldquo;I believe U.S. equities are due for a rough ride for the remainder of 2025. With gold setting all-time highs, I expect generalist investors to gravitate to the safety of hard assets and the earnings leverage of gold.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> We&rsquo;ll interrupt Jim long enough to mention that simple &ldquo;reversion to the mean&rdquo; suggests gold miners have enormous upside. 
The market cap of the 50 biggest gold-mining companies combined is a mere $370 billion &mdash; smaller than Procter &amp; Gamble, half the size of Walmart, a pitiful fraction of Nvidia.
In fact, the mining industry now makes up the smallest portion of global stocks ever.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5hsnx2A6zdU3vnpotMSUMN/332a071d9f8ad2f45df173f9e718c88d/WillemTweet.png" alt="Willem Tweet" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Within the gold-mining sector there are three broad categories &mdash; the majors, the midtiers and the juniors.
The juniors are the smallest and most speculative. Also the most potentially lucrative.
Frequently they&rsquo;re exploring or developing mine sites, not necessarily pulling gold out of the ground. Often when they&rsquo;re about to reach the production stage, they&rsquo;ll be bought out by the majors at a huge premium.
&ldquo;Junior mining stocks have much more upside potential than established, gold-producing mining companies,&rdquo; says Jim, &ldquo;because they are priced at extreme discounts relative to their gold resources in the ground.
&ldquo;Of course, the big guys will take care of themselves. That&rsquo;s one virtue of being big. But for higher returns, you want plays that are smaller than giants like Barrick or Newmont. Smaller guys often offer more upside when the price of their metal moves.
&ldquo;And yes, those kinds of companies are out there. But to be totally upfront, I won&rsquo;t say that there are a lot of great, small companies because it takes quite a bit to make a giant move with even a great company.&rdquo;
But when the stars do align for a junior miner? The gains can be spectacular.

Jim believes he and his team have identified just such an opportunity. But before recommending it to his Situation Report readers, he had to see the mine site for himself.
&ldquo;You won&rsquo;t believe what I just discovered in Nevada,&rdquo; he tells us. &ldquo;I wasn&rsquo;t sure we&rsquo;d ever see this in our lifetimes. But it&rsquo;s here &mdash; an opportunity to make 50x gains over the next year.&rdquo;
He&rsquo;s put his own money into this venture, and he&rsquo;s inviting you to come along for the ride. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2444429">Check out his latest presentation at this link</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Tariff Man Is Back
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If you thought market-moving tariff headlines were over and done with, Donald Trump begs to differ.
The president went on a tariff tweetstorm this morning. (Yeah, I know, he posts on his own Truth Social site these days. Couldn&rsquo;t resist the expression.)
First, he threatened 25% tariffs on Apple iPhones sold in the United States unless they&rsquo;re made in the United States. (Evidently, Apple&rsquo;s shift out of China toward India isn&rsquo;t good enough.)
Then he floated the notion of 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union effective June 1 &mdash; a week from Sunday &mdash; unless trade talks start making progress.
With that, Apple is down 2.6% at last check. And all the major U.S. stock indexes are solidly in the red &mdash; the Dow by three-quarters of a percent, the Nasdaq by nearly 1.25% and the S&amp;P 500 by close to 1%.
At 5,787 the S&amp;P is down nearly 3% since Monday.
<blockquote>➢ Congratulations are in order for Trading Desk readers who collected 512% gains this week after only six days playing call options on D-Wave Quantum (QBTS). If you&rsquo;re not getting Greg&rsquo;s recommendations, please review <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2444516">this urgent message from our customer service director</a>.</blockquote>

Alan Knuckman, our eyes and ears at the Chicago options exchanges, won&rsquo;t rule out the S&amp;P retreating another 5% to 5,500 in the days ahead.
As noted earlier, gold is rallying hard into the end of the week. Alas, silver&rsquo;s rally is lagging, up only 22 cents to $33.22. Crude is up 47 cents to $61.67.
Bitcoin nearly crested a record $112,000 overnight but now it&rsquo;s pulled back to $109,282.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />There&rsquo;s Big Money in Cargo Theft
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Headlines you don&rsquo;t see every day: &ldquo;Armenian Organized Crime Rings Charged With Stealing $83 Million in Amazon Cargo,&rdquo; says CNBC.
To be clear, the theft is taking place in the United States.
In these digital pages we&rsquo;ve chronicled periodic episodes of cargo theft in recent years &mdash; for instance, a 15% spike in such incidents between 2021 and 2022. Figures we mentioned last year suggest the theft of merchandise from warehouses reached a 10-year high, according to the Travelers insurance company.
Oftentimes the thieves simply show up with 18-wheelers and phony papers &mdash; making off with a literal truckload of household goods and electronics.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But the latest developments take it to a whole new level: This week the feds charged 13 people with an array of counts including not only cargo theft but bank fraud and even attempted murder.
That&rsquo;s because it seems there are rival Armenian organized crime rings feuding for territory around Los Angeles.
&ldquo;Among the defendants,&rdquo; according to the trade site FreightWaves, &ldquo;are Ara Artuni, 41, of Los Angeles, who is charged with attempted murder in aid of racketeering, and Robert Amiryan, 46, of Hollywood, who is charged with kidnapping&hellip;
&ldquo;Artuni and his organization allegedly targeted e-commerce giant Amazon by enrolling as carriers for the online retailer. Artuni and his men would contract trucking routes with Amazon, and while transporting the goods, diverge from the route and steal all or part of the shipments.&rdquo;
Amazon believes Artuni&rsquo;s organization alone made off with more than $83 million in goods.
Other defendants were picked up in South Florida. If convicted on all charges, they could get anywhere between 10 years and life.
A steep penalty, but the thieves must figure it&rsquo;s worth the risk: CNBC says the number of reported cargo theft incidents grew another 26% between 2023 and 2024, with total losses exceeding $455 million.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />When Coffee Gets Political
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />You think politics has infested every aspect of life in this country? Try ordering a cup of coffee in South Korea these days.
As we chronicled at the time, South Korea&rsquo;s president Yoon Suk Yeol imposed martial law last December. It lasted all of six hours as parliament met in defiance of his orders and voted to lift the clampdown. Yoon was subsequently impeached and removed from office.
But as you might expect, South Korea&rsquo;s politics have been topsy-turvy ever since. A new presidential election is coming early next month. And people are expressing their passions in all sorts of ways &mdash; even when ordering coffee.
According to the BBC, Starbucks &ldquo;has seen an increasing number of customers ordering drinks through their app and keying in phrases such as &lsquo;arrest Yoon Suk Yeol&rsquo; or &lsquo;[opposition leader] Lee Jae-myung is a spy&rsquo; as their nicknames. Starbucks baristas had little choice but to yell out these names once the drinks were ready for collection.&rdquo;
No more. Starbucks has put the kibosh on the practice. Customers are now banned from invoking the names of the six presidential candidates, the better to &ldquo;maintain political neutrality during election season,&rdquo; says a company statement. The ban will be lifted once the election takes place on June 3.
"I think people are being too sensitive,&rdquo; says one customer interviewed by the Beeb. &ldquo;What if your real name is the same as a candidate's?"
Others think the rule is &ldquo;too trivial&rdquo; even if they understand the rationale. "After [Yoon's impeachment] I don't really talk about politics anymore. It feels like the ideological divide has grown so much that conversations often turn into arguments."
Speaking of politics intruding into every aspect of life&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Politics, Beer
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Dave, here&rsquo;s my personal 5 cents. We are more and more inundated with politics,&rdquo; says a reader writing for the first time &mdash; &ldquo;and it would be nice if you could focus on the market, financials and making money.&rdquo;
In particular, the reader objects to yesterday&rsquo;s mailbag in which one of our regulars spoke up about Joe Biden&rsquo;s decrepitude.
&ldquo;It is completely useless noise and zero added value.
&ldquo;I enjoy your newsletter, but the politics tick me off, and I think so do many readers versus a minority that has gotten dragged into this polarisation and having the need to express their view.&rdquo;
Dave responds: I hear ya.
On the other hand, as a mentor told me long ago, &ldquo;Politics are the problem, and you ignore them at your peril.&rdquo;
On the other-other hand, he said that at a time when politics weren&rsquo;t as polarizing as they are now.
I don&rsquo;t think it&rsquo;s a bridge too far to suggest Biden&rsquo;s cancer diagnosis &mdash; a condition that can&rsquo;t possibly be brand-new, as even <a href="https://x.com/speedysmm/status/1924632929822769516">Democratic-aligned doctors</a> acknowledge &mdash; helped fuel the turbulence in the bond market this week.
Yes, it was mostly the result of a weak Treasury auction and the impending passage of Trump&rsquo;s &ldquo;big beautiful bill&rdquo; that doesn&rsquo;t do a thing to meaningfully cut spending.
But the revelation of yet another Biden health cover-up has to undermine confidence among the holders of U.S. debt that U.S. leaders on either side of the divide can be trusted.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Love your sense of humor, Emily,&rdquo; a reader writes in appreciation of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/biotechs-cheat-code">Wednesday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;Loved the &lsquo;tips, taps and roots&rsquo; comment at the end. But it certainly is true. Since I'm celiac, and allergic to most alcohol, it doesn't affect me much.&nbsp;
&ldquo;We have a ton of bars and taprooms in Denver and I don't see as many people at the outside venues.&nbsp;
&ldquo;5 Bullets are always a great review.&rdquo;
Dave: Emily appreciates the shout-out &mdash; and thank you for your on-the-ground observation of the local economy. I lived in Denver for a grand total of nine months &mdash; and a very long time ago &mdash; but I still remember it fondly!
Have a good weekend,
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Gold-bar

Don’t look now, but gold is on track today to notch its highest weekly close ever.

When the Stars Align (Gold)

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Update: Critical Minerals
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s not big headline news&hellip; but quietly, behind the scenes, the Trump administration is following through on a program that Paradigm&rsquo;s Jim Rickards labels the &ldquo;American birthright.&rdquo;
As a brief refresher, the Trump White House is keen to tap into the mineral wealth on federal lands &mdash; mostly west of the Mississippi &mdash; valued at up to $150 trillion.
One small example of this follow-through in recent days: The U.S. Geological Survey will issue $5 million in grants to states that find critical minerals in mine waste.
&ldquo;Minerals, such as germanium, are essential for high-performance computer chips used in applications that weren&rsquo;t even dreamed of when old mines closed,&rdquo; explains Jamey Jones, science coordinator for the USGS Earth Mapping Resources Initiative.
&ldquo;Germanium often occurs with zinc in ore, and it might have been left behind in mine waste when zinc ore was processed.&rdquo;
Note well: China banned U.S.-bound exports of germanium late last year.
A lot of mine waste tends to lie close to the surface of old mine sites. That makes it both cheaper and quicker to bring into production versus an entirely new mine.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> A more significant example &mdash; and a sign of things to come &mdash; turns up this week in a Bloomberg story.
&ldquo;The Trump administration granted the final federal permit for a mine in Idaho that will produce gold and antimony, a critical mineral used in munitions and other applications.
&ldquo;The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers issued the Clean Water Act permit needed for Perpetua Resources Corp.&rsquo;s Stibnite project in Idaho. The move was facilitated by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the chair of the National Energy Dominance Council, according to a statement from his department.&rdquo;
There&rsquo;s still a long road for Perpetua to travel here &mdash; it needs to line up financing and state permits. But the company estimates this one project can meet over one-third of U.S. antimony demand during its first six years of production.
Note well: China also banned U.S.-bound exports of antimony late last year.
In addition to military uses, antimony is used for flame retardants and lead-acid batteries.
Perpetua trades under the ticker PPTA. Like many pre-production miners, it&rsquo;s more of a wing and a prayer than it is money in the bank.
The Paradigm analysts have steered clear of it thus far &mdash; not least because there are better opportunities elsewhere, especially in gold. Readers of Jim Rickards&rsquo; The Situation Report know exactly what we&rsquo;re talking about.

<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;When President Trump reopened our mineral-rich federal lands, he completely altered the gold investing landscape,&rdquo; Jim says &mdash; &ldquo;and supercharged its profit potential.&rdquo;
As Jim sees it, the president&rsquo;s initiatives have opened a new &ldquo;Supergold Window&rdquo; unlike anything we&rsquo;ve seen before.
That includes the gold-mining booms of the late 1970s and the early 2010s.
&ldquo;If you&rsquo;re not invested in gold yet, or you&rsquo;re looking to supercharge your gold gains,&rdquo; says Jim, &ldquo;this is your shot to target 50x gains by 2026.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s why Jim recently convened an event called the Supergold Summit &mdash; <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2443845">which you can watch right away at this link</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Day After
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It&rsquo;s the day after the latest bond-market freakout &mdash; one that was a major drag on stocks.
Yesterday the U.S. Treasury auctioned off a slug of 20-year bonds. Long story short, the reaction was unenthusiastic. (Colleague Sean Ring ably breaks down the mechanics of what happened in <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/the-silence-of-the-bonds">today&rsquo;s </a><a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/the-silence-of-the-bonds">Rude Awakening</a>.)
The &ldquo;meh&rdquo; uptake of those 20-year T-bonds spooked bond traders. They sold off 30-year T-bonds hard, sending yields shooting higher. As we write this morning, the 30-year yield sits at 5.1%, the highest in over 18 months.
Perhaps the auction went over poorly because traders were hearing the rumblings from Washington, D.C. The president&rsquo;s budget-busting &ldquo;big beautiful bill&rdquo; was on the verge of passing the House.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Which it did early this morning.
It was a shameful but all-too-typical episode by 21st-century Washington standards. Much arm-twisting and horse-trading &mdash; and no time in which congress members could actually read a 1,116-page bill in its entirety.
We haven&rsquo;t read it either &mdash; but it appears the big highlights of the bill are mostly unchanged from a couple days ago.
<ul>
<li>The Trump tax cuts enacted in 2017 remain in place</li>
<li>Taxes on tips and overtime are eliminated (but only through 2028!)</li>
<li>The SALT deduction for state and local taxes rises from the current $10,000 to $40,000 &mdash; which was the only way blue-state Republicans were going to vote &ldquo;yes.&rdquo;</li>
<li>The debt ceiling will be raised by $4 trillion.</li>
</ul>
All of this in exchange for promises that future Congresses will get spending under control.
Those promises weren&rsquo;t good enough for three Republicans who broke ranks. Maryland&rsquo;s Andy Harris voted &ldquo;present&rdquo; while Kentucky&rsquo;s Thomas Massie and Ohio&rsquo;s Warren Davidson voted &ldquo;no.&rdquo;
All the other alleged spending hawks toed the party line, content to load an additional $3.3 trillion in debt on future generations over the next decade.
Now it&rsquo;s onto the Senate &mdash; where changes are likely but the broad outlines will stay the same: tax cuts with no meaningful spending cuts to offset them.
By Rep. Massie&rsquo;s calculations, the typical family of four will gain $1,600 from the tax cuts &mdash; while putting them on the hook for $16,000 of future interest payments on the national debt.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Markets Today (and a Forecast Fulfilled)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The stock market is still recovering from yesterday&rsquo;s shock.
The S&amp;P 500 ended yesterday down 1.6% at 5,845. Checking our screens this morning, it&rsquo;s little changed.
Defying the gloom, however, are shares of Fannie Mae (FNMA) &mdash; up nearly 20% after the president said he&rsquo;s giving &ldquo;very serious consideration&rdquo; to taking the mortgage giant private.
Kudos to the Paradigm analysts who correctly anticipated this development (even if it hasn&rsquo;t come to fruition yet)...
<ul>
<li>Dan Amoss recommended FNMA in Jim Rickards&rsquo; Situation Report last summer; readers have racked up a 710% gain to date</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Chris Cimorelli talked up FNMA last October during our &ldquo;America&rsquo;s Next Move&rdquo; gathering in Baltimore</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Davis Wilson told readers of The Million Mission in February that FNMA is <a href="https://million-mission.com/posts/buy-alert-extremely-rare-5x-return-opportunity">an &ldquo;extremely rare 5x return opportunity.&rdquo;</a></li>
</ul>
Which suggests the profit potential is only now starting to be realized&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Bitcoin is creeping still higher into record territory, now $111,384.
The flagship crypto eclipsed its previous $106,000 record yesterday. Some of that action was investors looking for a safe haven after the rotten Treasury auction. But it was also a Senate vote clearing the way for passage of the crypto-friendly GENIUS Act. A final vote might come before the end of the week.
Not much joy in the commodity complex today. Gold is back below $3,300 and silver back below $33. Crude is down nearly a buck to $60.74 after news that the OPEC+ countries are mulling over still another production increase.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Great Moments in Marketing
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Someone in Microsoft&rsquo;s marketing department didn&rsquo;t do their research.
Microsoft recently posted a video on social media claiming that its top models of Copilot+ PCs are faster than an Apple MacBook Air.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5A6YCxbBZe90I4CYr5TXbq/48ef139312dddb44135f1a4f577d2ba4/Screenshot_2025-05-22_at_2.10.04%C3%A2__PM.png" alt="microsoft" width="350px" />
OK, never mind the cringeworthy production values. (As one wag said in the YouTube comments, &ldquo;Was this comically low budget ad made with Windows Movie Maker 2 and a 5 MP camera from 2003?&rdquo;)
What puts this video in the &ldquo;epic fail&rdquo; bucket is the fact that the MacBook Air that&rsquo;s the subject of the comparison is no longer being made.
That&rsquo;s right, Microsoft&rsquo;s latest and greatest is 58% faster than an M3 MacBook Air &mdash; which was replaced earlier this year with a new model featuring an M4 chip.
How does it compare with the new version you wonder? Macworld ran tests on eight Windows models from five manufacturers. The speed improvements versus an M4 MacBook Air were as little as 2.7% and at most were 19.4%.
Writes the magazine&rsquo;s Roman Loyola: &ldquo;Imagine that video, but instead it says, &lsquo;Top Copilot+ PCs are up to 19.4% faster than a MacBook Air with M4&rsquo;.&rdquo;
Shades of Apple&rsquo;s old <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_a_Mac">&ldquo;Hello, I&rsquo;m a Mac&rdquo; campaign</a>, huh?
Of course, that was from a time when Steve Jobs was still around and Apple products were still reliable and user-friendly. But that&rsquo;s a rant for another day&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Biden, Reagan
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Speaking about <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/9-11-the-financial-crisis-and-covid">being cynical</a> (or just realistic), in the wake of the revelation that former president Biden has cancer I'm not at all surprised that it was kept hidden from the American people,&rdquo; writes one of our regulars. &ldquo;Even though it seems like Biden and those around him knew for quite some time.
&ldquo;What really bothers me about the whole thing is that with his dementia he was almost certainly not capable of making his own decisions, which then implies that in spite of his advanced medical conditions someone else made the decision to try to run for re-election for him. Asking a friend to help jog my memory, there were some in the DNC establishment that opposed him running for a second term, but I recall his wife and family backed him the whole way, and even some time ago attempted an interview to give the appearance that everything was fine.
&ldquo;To think that a close family member or loved one would try to use someone in that manner toward the end of their life leaves a sick feeling in my stomach. I'm also reminded of some similar goings on with our other politicians, Feinstein being wheeled into the Capitol Building asking, &lsquo;Where are we going?&rsquo; McConnell appearing to have a small stroke while talking on camera and so on.
&ldquo;While these characters are hardly deserving of sympathy, I still feel bad seeing them wheeled around like corpses with sunglasses on when they should be retired. For the ones who still have their faculties I can hardly fathom why they keep going back instead of retiring. At this point they've got enough money to pass on to their heirs and they certainly can't take any of their money with them when they go.
&ldquo;Could it be an obsession with power, control or ideology? Or could they also be forced into it somehow? I don't know. I'd figure I'm more like you than some of the others on the internet though: I take no joy in their suffering. I'd much rather help the people who are in need.
&ldquo;As you had mentioned last week that the 5 being a financial newsletter wasn't quite the right place to discuss philosophical thoughts and inclinations, I've got to ask, where could I go to read what you've got to say on that? I'm interested in what you have to say.&rdquo;
Dave responds: There&rsquo;s nothing I can say today that I didn&rsquo;t say <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/2024-is-beyond-recovery">already</a> just after the debate meltdown last summer.
Except this: Even now, the chatter among Democratic pundits is limited to the proposition that Biden shouldn&rsquo;t have run for re-election &mdash; ignoring the question of whether he was qualified to actually occupy the office.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Ronald Reagan was a pathetic hypocrite,&rdquo; a reader writes,
&ldquo;When they were saying, 'Just say no,&rsquo; they were importing enormous amounts of cocaine. They knew exactly what was going on.
&ldquo;Reagan is responsible for the insanity of warrantless search and seizure based on a nonexistent &lsquo;war on drugs.&rsquo; The DEA used seized cash to expand their influence and power. They are now completely out of control.
&ldquo;Reagan is undeserving of his so-called revolution. It&rsquo;s quite sad that people just won&rsquo;t wake up.&rdquo;
Dave: I&rsquo;m not&hellip; really sure&hellip; what brought on your complaint?
In the last two months I&rsquo;ve had occasion to bring up Reagan literally once. And my mention <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/9-11-the-financial-crisis-and-covid">last week</a> of his &ldquo;Morning in America&rdquo; campaign theme of 1984 was more of a fond reflection on the era than an endorsement of any Reagan policies.
&ldquo;Morning in America&rdquo; really was a cultural touchstone: In their book The Fourth Turning, William Strauss and Neil Howe marked that campaign as the pivot point between a Second Turning &ldquo;Awakening&rdquo; and a Third Turning &ldquo;Unraveling.&rdquo;
But vibes are one thing and results are another. I mentioned the Contra cocaine episode in <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/from-watergate-to-reagan-and-back-again#2">a reflection on Reagan last year</a>, as well as how he tripled the national debt in two terms &mdash; a feat no one has pulled off since.
And on the occasions Reagan&rsquo;s instincts were good, the deep state ran roughshod over him. More&rsquo;s the pity&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Minerals-05-22

Behind the scenes, the Trump administration is following through on a program that Paradigm’s Jim Rickards labels the “American birthright.”

Update: Trump’s Quest for Critical Minerals

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Biotech Illuminates the &ldquo;Code of Life&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The code of life is written in DNA,&rdquo; remarked geneticist Francis Collins in the early 2000s, as the world marveled at the completion of the Human Genome Project.
For decades, scientists dreamed of reading the entire human genome &mdash; every sequence, every instruction that makes us who we are.
Yet for most of the 20th century, this was a fantasy, as sequencing even a small stretch of DNA was slow, painstaking and outrageously expensive. Enter the American biotech company Illumina&hellip;
Founded in 1998 in San Diego, Illumina began as a humble startup with a vision: to make DNA sequencing fast, affordable and accessible.
At the time, sequencing a single human genome cost nearly $100 million and took years. Most experts believed that bringing the cost down to even $10,000 was a pipe dream.
But the biotech&rsquo;s founders were undeterred by the odds&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Illumina imagined a future where genetic information could transform medicine, a &ldquo;cheat code&rdquo; to understand life itself. 
One monumental breakthrough came in 2007, when Illumina acquired Solexa, a British company with a revolutionary sequencing technology.
This was arguably the moment that put Illumina on the map because Solexa&rsquo;s &ldquo;sequencing by synthesis&rdquo; approach allowed scientists to read millions of fragments of DNA at once, dramatically increasing speed and slashing costs.
Within a few years, Illumina&rsquo;s machines became the gold standard in genomics labs worldwide.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/10Q5Ms9VGkaGMbxveg1xlt/c394d123546710e875954d9de72cfc83/Illumina.png" alt="Illumina" width="540px" />

Source: Illumina Inc. A state-of-the-art DNA sequencing machine at a Solution Center in S&atilde;o Paulo, Brazil&hellip;
All to say, Illumina&rsquo;s impact was immediate and profound.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Suddenly, researchers could sequence entire genomes in days instead of years. The cost plummeted from millions to thousands &mdash; and kept falling. By 2014, Illumina announced it could sequence a human genome for under $1,000, a milestone that once seemed impossible.
This was much more than an engineering feat; it was a scientific revolution. By making sequencing accessible, Illumina opened the door to personalized medicine &mdash; where treatments could be tailored to a person&rsquo;s unique genetic makeup. Cancer, rare disorders and even infectious disease could be understood at the molecular level.
But the story doesn&rsquo;t end there: As Illumina&rsquo;s technology matured, its influence spread beyond medicine. &ldquo;Our products are used for applications in the life sciences, oncology, reproductive health, agriculture and other emerging segments,&rdquo; notes Illumina News Center.
Some significant examples?
<ul>
<li>Genetic testing companies like 23andMe and AncestryDNA rely on Illumina&rsquo;s platforms to bring DNA insights to millions of consumers</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Agricultural scientists use Illumina&rsquo;s tools to breed hardier crops and healthier livestock</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>And conservationists sequence endangered species to help save them from extinction.</li>
</ul>
Today, Illumina stands at the forefront of genomics, having turned the dream of affordable, rapid DNA sequencing into a reality.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As Illumina CEO Jacob Thaysen puts it: &ldquo;We see a future where you know you have a disease before you have a single symptom. Where you can fight it with the right weapon, a medicine tailored to your specific biology.&rdquo;
Illumina&rsquo;s now leading the charge into a new era where artificial intelligence and multiomics &mdash; integrating genomics with data on proteins and more &mdash; are poised to redefine what&rsquo;s possible in medicine.
Through collaborations with industry leaders like Nvidia and Tempus, Illumina is harnessing AI to make clinical research and drug discovery faster, more affordable and more precise than ever before.
For investors and innovators alike, Illumina&rsquo;s story is a testament to the power of vision, perseverance and scientific ingenuity.
Biotech looks to the future, and Paradigm&rsquo;s own tech-investing whiz Ray Blanco believes the possibilities are staggering. Thanks to companies like Illumina, science-fiction scenarios are now within reach.
As a cancer survivor himself, Ray understands the importance of the U.S. biotech sector &mdash; including one microcap stock he&rsquo;s currently eyeing &mdash; for patients and investors alike.

[We may be days away from a major turning point in cancer treatment, according to Ray Blanco.
For decades, treatments like chemo and radiation have been the standard, despite their harsh side effects. Now a new approach offers hope for safer, more effective therapies&hellip;
The FDA is expected to make a critical announcement that could bring this groundbreaking new discovery to the forefront &mdash; one that challenges everything we thought we knew about fighting cancer.
At the heart of this breakthrough is a small biotech company, valued under $1 billion, poised for explosive growth if the FDA announcement goes as expected on Tuesday, July 22, 2025.
To see Ray&rsquo;s presentation about why he believes this small biotech could signal the end of cancer treatment as we know it, <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2443195">click here now</a>. Don&rsquo;t miss your chance to learn more about this potentially life-changing &mdash; and portfolio-changing &mdash; development.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Bitcoin&rsquo;s Halving: You Are Here
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Remember when Bitcoin hit $100,000 earlier this year? That was just the warm-up act,&rdquo; claims Paradigm&rsquo;s crypto evangelist James Altucher. &ldquo;The main event is about to begin, and it's going to make early investors very, very wealthy.
&ldquo;How do I know this? Because three massive catalysts are converging right now&hellip;
&ldquo;First, we're in crypto's perfect timing window,&rdquo; says James. &ldquo;Most people think the Bitcoin &lsquo;halving&rsquo; immediately triggers a boom, but they're wrong.&rdquo;
[Bitcoin&rsquo;s halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years &mdash; or every 210,000 new blocks added to Bitcoin&rsquo;s blockchain &mdash; when the reward &lsquo;miners&rsquo; receive is cut in half.
With the most recent halving in April 2024, this process reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, increasing scarcity.]
&ldquo;History shows,&rdquo; James continues, &ldquo;crypto follows three distinct phases after each halving. We're now entering the final &lsquo;mania phase&rsquo; &mdash; when life-changing gains typically happen.
&ldquo;Second, Wall Street's floodgates have opened,&rdquo; he adds. &ldquo;BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF accomplished in months what took gold funds decades.
&ldquo;Now every major financial institution is racing to launch their own crypto funds. This isn't millions or billions &mdash; we're looking at TRILLIONS of dollars pouring into crypto.
&ldquo;Third, we have the most pro-crypto White House in history. Trump personally owns nearly $10 million in crypto and is establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. His goal? Make America &lsquo;the crypto capital of the world.&rsquo;
&ldquo;When government support meets Wall Street money at the perfect market timing, what happens?&rdquo; James asks. &ldquo;An explosion of wealth that creates thousands of new millionaires practically overnight.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Just like that, Bitcoin breached its high-water mark today, surpassing its January record&hellip; 
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/60FF2g3cpED9Gx0waIRbgi/b9d77c6fbfb75b21e4a80c133582fdc5/Screenshot_2025-05-21_at_12.20.54%C3%A2__PM.png" alt="tweet" width="540px" />
In terms of Ethereum, Bitcoin&rsquo;s younger brother is getting some attention, too &mdash; the second-place crypto is up almost 4% to $2,585.
Other than the tech-heavy Nasdaq, up 0.40% to 19,225, the Dow and the S&amp;P 500 are in the red, down 0.75% to 42,355 and down 0.10% to 5,935 respectively.
As for commodities, crude is down 0.75% to $61.54 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. But like crypto, precious metals are in the green. The yellow metal is up 0.90% to $3,315 per ounce while silver&rsquo;s gained 1.35% to $33.64.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Why Millennials (Heart) Layaway
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Klarna, the Swedish fintech giant known for its &ldquo;buy now, pay later&rdquo; (BNPL) service, is facing mounting financial pressure despite rapid growth. 
In the first quarter of 2025, Klarna&rsquo;s net loss more than doubled, reaching $99 million &mdash; up sharply from $47 million in the same period last year. The company&rsquo;s consumer credit losses, reflecting customers who failed to repay their installment loans, also swelled by 17% to $136 million, compared to $117 million a year ago.
These losses come even as Klarna&rsquo;s revenue climbed 13% to $701 million and its user base hit 100 million active customers, underscoring the tension between expansion and profitability.
Klarna attributes the surge in losses to a mix of restructuring costs, depreciation and share-based compensation tied to its now-paused plans for a U.S. IPO.
The company&rsquo;s leadership points out that, relative to the total value of loans issued, credit losses remain low &mdash; rising slightly from 0.51% to 0.54%.
Nonetheless, the absolute increase in unpaid debts signals growing strain among BNPL users, a trend mirrored across the industry as more Americans turn to installment loans for everyday purchases, including groceries.
This financial stress is set against a backdrop of record U.S. consumer debt, which rose by $167 billion to $18.2 trillion in the first quarter of 2025.
Even still, traditional credit balances like credit cards and auto loans fell post-holiday, while delinquencies in student loans and BNPL products surged.
Now here&rsquo;s the story the mainstream is missing entirely&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Regardless of warning signs, BNPL continues to resonate, especially among millennials. 
As Neil Howe and Christian Ford observe at the Demography Unplugged Substack, millennials are flocking to payment plans for everything from beauty products to big-ticket experiences like Coachella &mdash; where an estimated 65&ndash;70% of attendees this year used installment options for tickets costing over $499.
<ul>
<li>Howe and Ford note: &ldquo;Despite the mainstream media&rsquo;s shocked reaction, this is classic millennial risk aversion.&rdquo; [Emphasis ours]</li>
</ul>
Rather than taking on revolving credit card debt with high interest, millennials prefer transparent payment plans that resemble old-school layaway plans. &ldquo;They prefer payment options with fixed terms, no compounding interest and clear boundaries around risk.&rdquo;
For millennials, the worst-case scenario with BNPL isn&rsquo;t spiraling debt &mdash; it&rsquo;s a canceled purchase and perhaps a credit for future use. This structure, as Howe and Ford put it, &ldquo;is a far safer bet than carrying a 20% APR on a credit card.&rdquo;
The appeal of spreading out payments, avoiding big one-time hits to their bank accounts and steering clear of traditional credit risk explains why BNPL is becoming millennials&rsquo; go-to method for both small and increasingly large purchases.
As Howe and Ford conclude: &ldquo;What started as a tool for lipstick and leggings is fast becoming a preferred way to fund life&rsquo;s bigger splurges.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Update: Nuclear Flashpoint
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The Indo-Pakistan conflict has subsided for the moment, but Jim Rickards warns escalating tensions have brought the world to &ldquo;the brink of an existential war between two nuclear-armed powers.&rdquo; 
Jim contends if the situation deteriorates toward nuclear confrontation, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s not inconceivable that the U.S. or perhaps a joint U.S.-Russia mission would attack and destroy both the Pakistani and Indian nuclear weapons systems in a way that did not set off a nuclear explosion.&rdquo;
The goal, he stresses, would be to &ldquo;eliminate an existential threat to the human race,&rdquo; not to choose sides.
He advocates for a &ldquo;game theory approach&rdquo; in which this potential response is communicated in advance to both countries, aiming to deter escalation.
Yet Jim is clear-eyed about the challenges: &ldquo;Pakistan&rsquo;s politics are perennially unstable, and India&rsquo;s ruling party has staked out a nationalist pro-Hindu platform. Those realities make compromise more difficult.&rdquo;
He suggests that U.S. mediation may be necessary, especially as &ldquo;the last thing the world needs is a shooting war between two nuclear-armed powers.&rdquo;
For investors, Jim advises prudence: &ldquo;Reduce exposure to risky assets like stocks and increase allocations to safer assets including Treasury notes, cash and gold.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Recession? No Desk Jockeys Required
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Forget government wonks: If you want to know whether a recession is looming, just ask a brothel manager, bartender or hairdresser.
Catherine De Noire, in fact, who manages a legal brothel in Europe, swears when business drops and clients start haggling over prices, she knows belts everywhere are tightening. (Heh, figuratively speaking, of course.)
This year, her brothel&rsquo;s earnings have plunged, with even top earners taking home half of last year&rsquo;s pay. &ldquo;There are significantly fewer clients coming in, and the sex workers are reporting noticeably lower earnings,&rdquo; De Noire says, chalking it up to a global sense of economic anxiety.
But the economic crystal ball doesn&rsquo;t stop at the red-light district. Enter the &ldquo;Beer Index&rdquo;...

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1O99APfaFLvydJiN1KlAkf/0aa88ad9ddfea7e7a9c7cf3a9249b408/Beer.png" alt="beer" width="540px" />

Source: The NBWA Beer Purchasers&rsquo; Index (BPI)
According to Jack Buffington, an assistant professor at the University of Denver: &ldquo;Sales of craft beer have significantly declined,&rdquo; Buffington points out, and that&rsquo;s a classic sign of recessionary jitters
Since beer is a &ldquo;discretionary and social expense,&rdquo; he says, when times get tough, people swap pricey craft brews for bargain six-packs. And skip the bar altogether.
Then there&rsquo;s the &ldquo;Brunette Index.&rdquo; When salon clients start abandoning expensive bleaching for natural, low-maintenance brunette shades, stylists know purse strings are tightening. Fewer blondes on the street? It might be time to brace for an economic downturn.
So if you notice quieter brothels, fewer pints of craft IPA and a sudden surge of natural brunettes, don&rsquo;t wait for the next Fed meeting. The real economic signals are in plain sight &mdash; just follow the tips, taps and roots.
Take care, reader! We&rsquo;ll be back with another 5 Bullets tomorrow&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Cheat-Code

For most of the 20th century, sequencing even a small stretch of DNA was painstaking and 

Biotech’s Cheat Code 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Cancer: The Beginning of the End?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;There is no magic bullet for cancer,&rdquo; lamented Paradigm&rsquo;s tech-and-biotech authority Ray Blanco a couple of years ago.
&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve been searching for a magic bullet going back at least as far as Paul Ehrlich, the father of chemotherapy and winner of the Nobel Prize in medicine all the way back in 1908.&rdquo;
As you&rsquo;ve likely heard by now, former President Biden has been diagnosed with Stage 4 prostate cancer.
When he was vice president under Barack Obama, Biden announced a project touted as a &ldquo;Cancer Moonshot&rdquo; &mdash; an initiative that continued on during the Trump 45 years and into Biden&rsquo;s own presidency.
The National Cancer Institute&rsquo;s budget grew from $5.2 billion in 2016 to $7.1 billion in 2023.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Ray &mdash; a cancer survivor himself &mdash; bristled at this venture the entire time. Curing cancer is not like putting a man on the moon.
A moon landing was a totally doable proposition when JFK laid it out in May 1961; Apollo 11 landed in July 1969.
&ldquo;While there were difficult engineering problems to be solved,&rdquo; Ray told us, &ldquo;no basic scientific breakthroughs were needed. The basics of getting to the moon had been solved by Robert Goddard&rsquo;s liquid-fueled rocket in 1926, and further refined by Wernher von Braun in the decades following.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> In contrast, a cure for cancer &ldquo;requires more than solving an engineering problem,&rdquo; says Ray &mdash; &ldquo;it needs a scientific breakthrough.&rdquo;
In addition, &ldquo;Cancer isn&rsquo;t a single enemy that can be killed with a single bullet. It&rsquo;s a handle we use to describe hundreds of different diseases caused by cells that have run amok. Every single one of those different diseases is unique.&rdquo;
And every individual cancer case is different. &ldquo;Not only are the genes in these malignant cells unique because they derive from the person who gets sick, the mutations that emerge are also unique.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But that was two years ago. Today, Ray says we might well be on the verge of such a breakthrough.
Surgery, chemotherapy, radiation &mdash; what if they were no longer necessary?
&ldquo;What the world has largely thought about cancer and how to treat it may be proved entirely wrong,&rdquo; Ray tells us.
Indeed, stunning images captured by a high-powered microscope might mean &ldquo;the true beginning of the end of cancer as we know it.
&ldquo;For the tiny, sub-$1 billion microcap behind this monumental discovery, the potential financial rewards at stake are nothing short of staggering.
&ldquo;I expect the entire story comes to a head on July 22,&rdquo; says Ray &mdash; &ldquo;when the FDA is set to issue the most important announcement of my career.&rdquo;
Readers of Ray&rsquo;s Catalyst Trader service are already positioned to take advantage. If you&rsquo;re not among them, there&rsquo;s still time to act. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2442743">Click here to see the microscope image that could change the world &mdash; and send shares of this microcap surging higher</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />&ldquo;The Safest Bet on Earth&rdquo; (Uh-Oh&hellip;)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Let&rsquo;s follow up on yesterday&rsquo;s <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/quiet-riot">double-whammy</a> to the bond market &mdash; the downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt by Moody&rsquo;s and a budget-busting vote by the House Budget Committee.
Hedge fund legend Ray Dalio correctly says that Moody&rsquo;s was being too kind.
&ldquo;You should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt,&rdquo; he posted on X.
&ldquo;They don&rsquo;t include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they&rsquo;re getting (rather than from the decreased quantity of money they&rsquo;re getting).&rdquo;
Exactly. Under the scenario Dalio paints, it&rsquo;s not only that the 10-year Treasury note you buy for $1,000 today might be worth $950 or $900 in another couple years. It&rsquo;s also that your cost of living might be rising faster than the 4.5% yield you collect.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Meanwhile, in a truly worrisome development&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5cWXCTS6I1ifhMsMtWfgV9/060eab1cc19be475aae7bcc8a15dd3fe/MarketJournal.png" alt="market journal" width="540px" />
&ldquo;Make no mistake, the U.S. debt is the safest bet on Earth,&rdquo; says Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council. &ldquo;There is no country&rsquo;s debt that I&rsquo;d rather have than the United States&rsquo;,&rdquo; he tells Fox Business.
Hassett&rsquo;s early claim to fame was as co-author of the 1999 book Dow 36,000 &mdash; predicting the Dow Jones Industrial Average would reach that lofty level by 2004. (It didn&rsquo;t get there until 2021.)
But that was only the first in a series of embarrassing calls. During the Trump 45 years, when Hassett was chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the late economics blogger Robert Wenzel took to calling him &ldquo;Baghdad Hassett&rdquo; &mdash; a nod to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf">Baghdad Bob</a> of Iraq War fame.
Doesn&rsquo;t bode well for the prospects of U.S. Treasuries. At all.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The president went to Capitol Hill this morning to dig Uncle Sam&rsquo;s fiscal hole even deeper.
He&rsquo;s personally lobbying holdout Republicans to back his &ldquo;big beautiful bill&rdquo; of tax cuts and an increase in the debt ceiling &mdash; with the promise that DOGE-driven spending cuts will come later, pinky-swear.
But rather than persuade the spending hawks to see things his way, he lashed out at them instead&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4XvnTTK6li1Jf8cPXH4NIw/423ecaf76c8578c2e6938b018e6678be/CSPAN.png" alt="CSPAN" width="540px" />
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), the closest thing we&rsquo;ve got to Ron Paul in Congress today, is almost certainly a &ldquo;no.&rdquo; That means the president can afford to lose only two more Republican votes.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If history is any guide, the Moody&rsquo;s downgrade will not spell bad news for the stock market, other than in the very near term.
As we mentioned yesterday, Moody&rsquo;s was the last of the Big Three credit rating agencies to downgrade U.S. government debt from a pristine AAA rating. Fitch did so in 2023 and Standard &amp; Poor&rsquo;s in 2011.
Colleague Bob Byrne, the lead stock researcher on James Altucher&rsquo;s team, passes along some interesting figures from MoneyFlows and Factset.
Early returns for the S&amp;P 500 after those two previous downgrades were lousy. But by the time you get to six months out, the S&amp;P was solidly in the green. And a year after the downgrades, the S&amp;P was up 19% in 2023 and 16% in 2011.
Admittedly, we&rsquo;re not working with a very big data set here &mdash; but based on what&rsquo;s available, the post-downgrade prognosis is positive.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As for today&rsquo;s trading action, all the major U.S. stock indexes are down by less than a half-percent &mdash; the S&amp;P 500 at 5,937.
Precious metals are perking up, gold adding $52 to $3,280 and silver 54 cents to $32.85. Crude has shed 46 cents to $62.23. Bitcoin is making another halting move approaching its $106,000 record.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Deficient Diplomacy (Ukraine)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not clear to me when the U.S. stopped producing world-class diplomats,&rdquo; Jim Rickards wrote his Rickards&rsquo; Strategic Intelligence readers yesterday.
The occasion for this observation was Donald Trump&rsquo;s muddled Ukraine policy &mdash; one of the few areas in which Jim has a bone to pick with the president.
Yesterday Trump was on the phone with Russia&rsquo;s Vladimir Putin. Putin refused to agree to an immediate cease-fire with Ukraine.
But why would he? Moscow has the upper hand in the war. A cease-fire would merely buy time for Kyiv to regroup and re-arm. Like it or not, &ldquo;the war will end on Russian terms,&rdquo; says Jim, &ldquo;and not any other.&rdquo;
Which brings us back to Jim&rsquo;s complaint: &ldquo;Whether you agree with their policies or not, there&rsquo;s no dispute that the long line of U.S. diplomats from Dean Acheson to John Foster Dulles, Dean Rusk, Henry Kissinger, George Shultz and James Baker produced momentous agreements that changed the history of the world and preserved the national security of the United States.
&ldquo;Beginning with Bill Clinton, we began to have second-rate national security advisers and secretaries of state including Sandy Berger, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Rex Tillerson, Tony Blinken and Jake Sullivan. In succession, they have produced wars in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Ukraine and Yemen with India-Pakistan next in line.&rdquo;
In the present moment, someone continues to tell Trump he&rsquo;s got leverage over Putin that doesn&rsquo;t exist. &ldquo;Until the West takes Putin seriously and internalizes the actual state of the war,&rdquo; Jim says, &ldquo;the slaughter will continue.&rdquo;
Jim didn&rsquo;t call out anyone by name in Trump&rsquo;s inner circle. Then again, he didn&rsquo;t have to&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Pope and the IRS
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Turns out that even becoming the leader of 1.4 billion Catholics and the head of the world&rsquo;s smallest country doesn&rsquo;t give you a free pass with the IRS,&rdquo; says an article at the Catholic news site The Pillar.
As you&rsquo;re no doubt aware, Pope Leo XIV, the former Cardinal Robert Prevost, is the first American pope.
&ldquo;If Pope Leo XIV maintains his U.S. citizenship,&rdquo; says The Pillar, &ldquo;he will owe income tax in the United States, said Ken Milani, a professor emeritus of accountancy at the University of Notre Dame&rsquo;s Mendoza College of Business.&rdquo;
As we mention now and then, the United States is one of only two countries in the world that taxes its citizens&rsquo; income no matter where in the world they earn it. (The northern African state of Eritrea is the other.)
It&rsquo;s still possible the pope will escape U.S. tax liability &mdash; but only if&hellip;
<ol>
<li>He refuses a salary, as his three most recent predecessors did&hellip;</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li value="2">Or he surrenders his U.S. citizenship (colleague Sean Ring at the Rude Awakening, who&rsquo;s lived abroad since 1999, says it was one of the smartest financial moves he ever made)...</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li value="3">Or the U.S. government revokes his citizenship, seeing as he&rsquo;s now a foreign head of state.</li>
</ol>
The last of those three is up in the air. The Pillar put in an inquiry with the State Department &mdash; which said it does not comment on individuals&rsquo; citizenship status.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />They&rsquo;re in It for Themselves
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Dave, I appreciate your insightful commentary on the bond market's &lsquo;panic&rsquo; and the current fiscal fiasco brewing in Congress,&rdquo; a reader writes after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/quiet-riot">yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;You're right &mdash; long-term Treasury yields edging above 5% and the GOP's reckless spending spree underscore a troubling reality: Politicians are still playing the same tired game. This time, Congress funnels public funds to an even more brazen set of insiders.
&ldquo;Deficits have become little more than a pass-through mechanism &mdash; an elegant way to launder taxpayer dollars into private gains. Trump's administration isn't about making America great; it's about capturing the whole kit and kaboodle for himself and his cronies. And sadly, they're off to an impressively productive start.
&ldquo;The music continues, the looting persists and the carnival rolls on. But Trump and his band of opportunists overlook a critical point: This game of musical chairs is built entirely on trust. The foundations weaken as they chip away relentlessly at trust within institutions, markets and society. Eventually, when trust collapses, the entire edifice will crumble spectacularly.
&ldquo;The bond market jitters are just a symptom. The real disease is the cynical exploitation of public faith and resources to further concentrate wealth and power. Until we address the concentrating of wealth and power, we'll keep witnessing panic, instability and the inevitable reckoning.
&ldquo;P.S. I&rsquo;m not sure why pundits like you keep suggesting politicians are doing anything but enriching themselves and their benefactors. I guess keeping the ruse alive &mdash; that someone is actually interested in the public good &mdash; provides a sense of nostalgia and comfort as the system crashes.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Well, sometimes they act out of hubris that they know what&rsquo;s best for the rest of us.
But yes, by and large, they&rsquo;re in it for themselves. As the radio host Charles Goyette wrote in 2009, &ldquo;America&rsquo;s national government has moved way beyond a political spoils system. America has become a pi&ntilde;ata: Everybody gets a crack at it. Presidents and other elected officials pass the big stick around as a reward to those who help keep them in charge of the pi&ntilde;ata party.&rdquo;
Oh but see now, someone&rsquo;s reading this daily dispatch for the first time today and thinking I&rsquo;m just a cynic. <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/9-11-the-financial-crisis-and-covid">Not so!</a>
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

shutterstock 1256050726

Today, Paradigm’s science-and-tech expert Ray Blanco says we might well be on the verge of a major cancer breakthrough.

Cancer: The Beginning of the End? 

BondMarketPanic

Panic has returned to the bond market. To be sure, it’s an orderly panic — unlike the messy panic last month.

Quiet Riot 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Expect More Volatility
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />You don&rsquo;t need us to tell you the first 4&frac12; months of 2025 have had plenty of thrills-n-chills for the stock market. But&hellip;
Let&rsquo;s pause for a moment&rsquo;s perspective. Going into today&rsquo;s trade, the S&amp;P 500 stood at 5,916. For the record, that&rsquo;s&hellip;
<ul>
<li>6% higher than at the start of the year</li>
<li>7% lower than the record close on Feb. 19</li>
<li>7% higher than the panic low on April 8. ( Quite the bungee-cord move, right?)</li>
</ul>
So the coast is clear, right? Up, up and away&hellip;
Well, hold on. If it&rsquo;s tariffs you&rsquo;re concerned about, remember that the story isn&rsquo;t over. We&rsquo;re just in the middle of a couple 90-day pauses. Absent any agreements, the &ldquo;reciprocal&rdquo; tariffs still kick in on July 9 and the tariffs targeting China return to their previous levels on Aug. 12.
But forget about tariffs. Paradigm chart hound Greg Guenthner certainly has. He&rsquo;s just watching the price action for cues &mdash; mindful of market history.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;As much as I would love to put the bear market behind us, so far the price swings pale in comparison to the last major sell-offs in 2020 and 2022,&rdquo; Greg wrote his Trading Desk readers yesterday.
&ldquo;The once-in-a-lifetime COVID pandemic aside, volatility expands toward peak selling pressure and then collapses as the market recovers.&rdquo;
Case in point: &ldquo;The Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)&rsquo;s three-day rate of change is on par with spring 2022 &mdash; the early innings of the bear market.
&ldquo;I expect more explosive moves in both directions if stocks are truly posting a COVID-esque V-bottom or if this is an honest-to-goodness bear market.&rdquo;
Either way, Greg expects the May rally to lose some of its oomph.
&ldquo;When it does, we&rsquo;re tracking 5,700 in the S&amp;P 500,&rdquo; he says. (Again, the S&amp;P ended yesterday at 5,916).
&ldquo;A break below that key level increases the likelihood of revisiting last month&rsquo;s low. But if we don&rsquo;t see those lows anytime soon, perhaps the 20% correction wasn&rsquo;t a bear market in the first place. Instead, it could&rsquo;ve just been a temper tantrum.&rdquo;

<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The good thing about following Greg&rsquo;s research is that you don&rsquo;t have to think about the major averages and where they&rsquo;re going. 
Amid all of the market&rsquo;s springtime turbulence, Greg&rsquo;s Trading Desk readers have closed out 10 trades since the beginning of March. The average gain &mdash; 50%. (Yes, that includes the losers.)
Some of those gains came in as little as four days. The longest any of them took to materialize was six weeks.
And that&rsquo;s not just a lucky streak. Over a two-year span, Greg&rsquo;s approach had the power to grow a $40,000 model portfolio to $266,000.
It&rsquo;s one of the most successful strategies I&rsquo;ve seen during my 18 years in financial publishing. And it&rsquo;s time that you take advantage. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2442024">Check out this invitation from our customer service director to learn how you can be added to Greg&rsquo;s alert list this coming Monday</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Gold Is a Vote of &ldquo;No Confidence&rdquo; in Congress
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Gold is getting another beat-down today, but celebrity investor David Einhorn is all-in on the Midas metal.
&ldquo;Gold is ultimately about confidence &mdash; or the lack of it &mdash; in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy,&rdquo; he tells CNBC. &ldquo;There&rsquo;s a bipartisan agreement to do nothing about the deficit until we actually get to the next crisis.&rdquo;
Einhorn, founder and president of the hedge fund Greenlight Capital was speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York on Wednesday. Greenlight&rsquo;s portfolio grew 8.2% during the first quarter, compared with a loss of over 4% in the S&amp;P 500. A meaningful gold position certainly helped.
At the same time Einhorn spoke on Wednesday, Congress was reinforcing his critique. &hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2YymVRSE5vBGBlJny0YJzE/4671d346a3289443810b9949b308f252/ThomasTweet0516.png" alt="thomas tweet" width="540px" />
It shouldn&rsquo;t be hard, right? But apparently the agenda is to <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/doge-boys-disappoint#2">extend the Trump tax cuts and raise the debt ceiling first</a>&hellip; then get around to passing a budget that hypothetically will include the spending cuts recommended by the &ldquo;Department of Government Efficiency.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/793dU82ZS5VDQ7vICrXzgB/e9b6110aa1bc47bbb255f64c561d9005/SpencerTweet.png" alt="spencer" width="540px" />
It&rsquo;s the sort of news that should send gold substantially higher &mdash; except for the fact that gold made a too-far-too-fast run past $3,500 last month. This morning the bid is down $64 to $3,175.
<blockquote>➢ One more gold tidbit: Also on Wednesday Costco clamped down on purchases of its one-ounce gold bars. It used to be limit two bars per transaction. Now it&rsquo;s only one bar, and no more than two transactions in 24 hours.</blockquote>
Meanwhile, those congressional follies are as strong an explanation as any for the sell-off in the bond market this week &mdash; pushing prices lower and yields higher. On Wednesday the yield on a 10-year Treasury note surpassed 4.5% &mdash; even higher than during <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-real-reason-for-the-tariff-pause">the bond market freakout last month</a>.
But as we write, Republican spending hawks in the House Budget Committee just sent the tax-cuts-and-debt-ceiling bill down in flames. Five Republicans voted against the bill for a final vote of 16 yea and 21 nay. On the theory that Uncle Sam might actually get his fiscal house in order, the 10-year yield is down to 4.43%.
The action in the stock market as the week winds down is like watching paint dry, with none of the major averages moving more than a tenth of a percent.
Crude is set to end an extremely volatile week a little over $62. Bitcoin has hoisted itself back over $104,000 for the moment.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Lights Out
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It being mid-May, it&rsquo;s time for our annual warning about rolling blackouts in case of an extra-hot summer.
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation is out with its annual &ldquo;Summer Reliability Assessment.&rdquo;
The picture isn&rsquo;t dire &mdash; but it&rsquo;s concerning for a wide swath of middle America. Here&rsquo;s a map we nicked from NERC&rsquo;s report&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1a2stZIIJz7hsN3SESd8rU/b475fe0ceb657a873270dcfba133b507/image__102_.png" alt="map" width="540px" />
As always, folks in the Upper Midwest and Mississippi Valley served by the MISO interconnection &mdash; including your editor &mdash; are at elevated risk of the lights going out under extreme circumstances.
Texas and New England are also still at risk. And this year we&rsquo;re joined by folks in the Great Plains, But on the plus side of the ledger, the desert Southwest is in better shape compared with last year.
(Curiously, PJM &mdash; the biggest regional grid operator serving folks from New Jersey west to Illinois &mdash; gets a clean bill of health even though PJM itself is raising the alarm, as we chronicled <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/summer-2025-maxed-out">in Wednesday&rsquo;s edition</a>.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Power demand is sharply up since last summer,&rdquo; says a Washington Post summary of the NERC report, &ldquo;increasing at more than double the rate it did between 2023 and 2024.&rdquo;
If you&rsquo;ve been keeping up with these daily dispatches, you know why: AI is <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-monster-that-ate-the-power-grid-ai">the monster that ate the power grid</a>.
In addition, NERC&rsquo;s report once again acknowledges that aging coal and natural gas power plants are being retired faster than renewables are coming online &mdash; and renewables have reliability issues that even the WaPo is willing to acknowledge.
&ldquo;Large amounts of wind and solar power have been added to the grid in the last year, and their inability to feed energy around-the-clock to the aging power network can destabilize it,&rdquo; says the article. &ldquo;While a vast expansion of industrial-size batteries to store that energy is helping, there is not yet enough storage to solve the problem.&rdquo;
Yeah, and there never will be barring some sort of technological breakthrough.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Money alone can&rsquo;t solve the reliability problem &mdash; as the NERC report notes.
It warns there&rsquo;s a shortage of &ldquo;parts, materials and skilled technicians&rdquo; that&rsquo;s holding up maintenance of existing transformers and installation of new ones.
This shortage was a hot topic at the annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston earlier this spring. Energy journalist Robert Bryce was in attendance and asked one knowledgeable participant what could slow the necessary build-out.
Her answer: &ldquo;Turbines, transformers and people.&rdquo;
&ldquo;There's a lack of gas-fired turbines, there's a lack of high-powered transformers, and the labor cost and the labor availability is a key pinch point,&rdquo; Bryce tells the Financial Sense podcast.
&ldquo;So we can talk about tens of gigawatts of new potential electricity demand, but if we don't have the turbines, transformers and the people to build the capacity, well, that simply won't be realized. That capacity, that new electricity availability, just simply won't be there.&rdquo;
Among the Paradigm analysts, our trading pro Enrique Abeyta has been front and center with investing opportunities in this space &mdash; especially the &ldquo;independent power producers&rdquo; that aren&rsquo;t regulated utilities. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2442031">Nor is that the only theme on his radar in his entry-level newsletter </a><a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2442031">Breaking Profits</a>.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />OK, is this just someone having fun with Photoshop? Or is this what lawsuit prevention in the 2020s really looks like?
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4Yqz0n3XtHtt1nGF1L7auk/5ea53d80ce74a69344a25a2d46e3f057/Fire.png" alt="fire" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Cynicism
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />I wasn&rsquo;t really sure what sort of reaction I&rsquo;d get to yesterday&rsquo;s edition &mdash; aka, <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/9-11-the-financial-crisis-and-covid">&ldquo;the cynicism issue.&rdquo;</a>
But it filled over nine pages of a Word document and everyone who wrote in was gracious. Perhaps I managed to articulate something that for many of these readers existed only on a subconscious level until now. A few highlights&hellip;
&ldquo;Until your column yesterday,&rdquo; wrote one, &ldquo;I was in the &lsquo;Geesh, He&rsquo;s So Cynical!&rsquo; camp, but you&rsquo;ve changed my mind. Thank you for the thoughtful contribution, and I look forward to many more. You don&rsquo;t need my permission to write freely and let the chips fall where they may, but feel free to do so anyway!&rdquo;
&ldquo;Are you too cynical?&rdquo; another reader begins. &ldquo; Life makes you more cynical and I do not believe you are &lsquo;over the edge.&rsquo; Always appreciate your perspective, even if it is not similar to mine. Makes the world go round.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Just want you to know, I look forward to receiving The 5 every day,&rdquo; writes a longtimer. &ldquo;I always find it thought-provoking. I don't always agree with you; however, I respect your point of view. I believe that discourse and dialog are dying in this country and that is too bad. To me, one of the beautiful parts of life is the diversity of people. I prefer to be curious about people in general and enjoy the process of interacting. You never know what you might learn and that your current position on a subject might be wrong. Keep up the good work.&rdquo;
On the flip side: &ldquo;Dave, this is the first I've read your writings in 5 Bullets, and I did not find any cynicism, only reality. If you are a cynic, I'm totally over the cliff.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;It's true, you may be a cynic. But this raw, honest explanation of how you came to be that way is refreshing,&rdquo; writes our final correspondent.
&ldquo;But the end &mdash; you want to help people &mdash; is perhaps more important than the things which turned you cynical. Seeing, and understanding, the dark underbellies of politics and journalism is enough to bring out the cynic in anyone. The reader that claims that your cynicism has taken a toll on their soul &mdash; maybe, but I hope that the outlet of expressing it in The 5 helps to keep it from doing the same to yourself.
&ldquo;Personally I hope you never change your delivery. The very things that have made you cynical provide historical perspective, as it relates to current conditions. IMO that is critically important, and invaluable. I may not always agree with your conclusions (I do more often than not) but if I don't, at least I can tell how you got there.
&ldquo;A single issue to explain your cynicism seems a bit much. While appreciated by many (myself included) I'm sure it most likely wasn't necessary. I'm willing to bet that many more of your readers appreciate your take on current events, with the healthy dose of cynicism that take is accompanied by, than are turned off by it.
&ldquo;When markets, or headlines, make no sense, I find myself waiting to react until I read The 5 for that day. Your column often provides insights that I (and others) hadn't considered, and in my case at least probably wouldn't have. I respect and appreciate you, and I am quite sure that sentiment is shared among the majority of your readers.&rdquo;
Dave: Thanks to everyone who took the time to write. Means a lot. Keeps me going.
Have a good weekend,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

shutterstock 362808566 copy

You don’t need us to tell you that the first months of 2025 have had plenty of thrills-n-chills for the stock market. But… 

Bungee Market 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Readers Write: &ldquo;You&rsquo;re Too Cynical&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I read Dave's Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets each time it is published,&rdquo; a reader wrote a while back.
I&rsquo;ve been doing this daily e-letter thing for 15 years now. I knew there was a &ldquo;but&rdquo; coming.
&ldquo;I have an overriding impression that he simply engages in diatribes and negativity.&rdquo;
Said another reader more recently: &ldquo;His raw cynicism can be a bit much.&rdquo;
One more email, last winter, addressing me directly: &ldquo;Like a smoker at a no-smoking venue, for nearly two years I have subtly jonesed for the time when your newsletter would come out each day.
&ldquo;But I think your dire cynicism has actually taken a toll on my soul.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s a heavy load to lay on me &mdash; but go on, sir&hellip;
&ldquo;I am a naturally suspicious and critical cat who does not easily trust things, but you too often leave me feeling like I have been in proximity to a Black Mirror episode.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Gee, I detect a pattern here.
I take these critiques seriously &mdash; as I take everything that comes into <a href="mailto:feedback@paradigmpressroom.com">our inbox</a>.
Long ago in pre-internet days, an old newsroom boss gave me a rule of thumb: For every viewer who called in to comment or complain about something in our newscast&hellip; there were 10 more who thought the same thing but didn&rsquo;t pick up the phone. I figure the same applies here and now.
But earnest as these critiques are, none of them is backed by concrete examples.
If someone, anyone, could point to something specific, well, then I could engage in a bit of self-reflection and make a course correction.
In the absence of such examples, however, I&rsquo;ve still tried to look inward. Am I too cynical?
What I&rsquo;ve tentatively concluded is this: If ever I end up in a cynical place, it&rsquo;s because of the idealistic place from where I start.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Adams&rsquo; Aspiration
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />And where I start is with the aspiration expressed by Founding Father John Adams during the American Revolution &mdash; in a 1780 letter to his wife, Abigail.
"I must study politics and war,&rdquo; he wrote, &ldquo;that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy.
&ldquo;My sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history, naval architecture, navigation, commerce and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry and porcelain."
Long before I encountered Adams&rsquo; letter, his ethos was my own whenever thinking about war and &ldquo;political economy&rdquo; &mdash; to use the term from the Founders&rsquo; day.
It&rsquo;s probably the ethos of anyone with a moral compass who thinks about these things, really. We aspire for humanity to move beyond war and want, conflict and hardship, so future generations can enjoy &ldquo;the good life.&rdquo;
Alas, Adams&rsquo; inspiring vision of each generation climbing to ever-greater heights of enlightenment was not to be.
Roughly 80 years after the American Revolution, the nation was torn apart by the Civil War&hellip; and two of Adams&rsquo; five great-grandsons ended up serving as Union officers.
(We&rsquo;ll come back to the significance of that 80-year interval later.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Perhaps a goodly amount of your editor&rsquo;s &ldquo;cynicism&rdquo; is a simple function of when I was born and how old I am now.
I&rsquo;m an early-wave Gen Xer &mdash; at this stage of life, too old to belong to the 25&ndash;54 demo, too young to qualify for early Social Security.
I had the good fortune to enjoy 17 years of &ldquo;adulting&rdquo; at a time when America was still kinda-sorta a free and prosperous country &mdash; a period bookended by Ronald Reagan&rsquo;s &ldquo;Morning in America&rdquo; campaign of 1984 and the very different morning of Sept. 11, 2001.
I wish I had better appreciated at the time how good we collectively had it, given everything that was to follow.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Three Hammer Blows
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The federal response to the 9/11 attacks was the first of three hammer blows to peace and freedom and prosperity in these United States.
The Patriot Act, the warrantless surveillance, the Iraq War &mdash; and the groupthink condemnation of anyone who objected to those steps as &ldquo;terrorist sympathizers&rdquo; &mdash; I haven&rsquo;t forgotten.
It&rsquo;s what ultimately drove me out of the news business after 20 years.
In September 2003 &mdash; two years after 9/11 and six months after the U.S. invasion of Iraq &mdash; a poll showed 69% of Americans still believed Iraq&rsquo;s Saddam Hussein had a role in the 9/11 attacks.
If, like me, you took advantage of the internet to read the foreign press&hellip; or the skeptical reporting of the now-defunct Knight Ridder newspaper chain&hellip; or the scathing columns of the late Justin Raimondo at antiwar.com&hellip; you knew better, long before the U.S. tanks rolled in.
It was the instant I saw those poll numbers that I knew my chosen profession had failed spectacularly at its most solemn responsibility &mdash; as defined by Supreme Court Justice Hugo Black in the 1971 Pentagon Papers case.
&ldquo;Only a free and unrestrained press can effectively expose deception in government,&rdquo; he wrote. &ldquo;And paramount among the responsibilities of a free press is the duty to prevent any part of the government from deceiving the people and sending them off to distant lands to die of foreign fevers and foreign shot and shell.&rdquo;
The media was no longer &ldquo;free and unrestrained.&rdquo; It was domesticated and shackled.
Meanwhile, the government went on a mad spending spree after 9/11 &mdash; aided and abetted by Federal Reserve money printing.
The result was a bubble in the housing and credit markets that started to approach the bursting point in 2007 &mdash; just as I made my escape from broadcast news into financial publishing.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The second and third hammer blows were the bailouts after the 2008 financial crisis&hellip; and COVID lockdowns, restrictions and mandates in 2020&ndash;21.
I won&rsquo;t dwell at length on these episodes today. I marked the <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/two-disgraceful-anniversaries">16th anniversary</a> of the Lehman collapse and the bailouts that followed last fall. And I did <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/covid-9-11">a five-year retrospective</a> on &ldquo;COVID 9/11&rdquo; earlier this spring.
Together, these three hammer blows have made a mockery of the saying &ldquo;It&rsquo;s a free country.&rdquo;
Even Freedom House &mdash; a very mainstream nonprofit funded mostly by the U.S. State Department and other government grants &mdash; sees the declining trajectory.
In 2017, it rated America&rsquo;s combination of political rights and civil liberties at 89 out of 100. By 2024, the rating had declined to 83 out of 100.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Fourth Turning
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> To be sure, my &ldquo;cynical&rdquo; outlook is further colored by the conviction that we&rsquo;re hurtling toward the climax of what&rsquo;s called a Fourth Turning.
Today isn&rsquo;t the day to go deep into Strauss-and-Howe generational theory. Suffice to say that every 80 years or so, Anglo-American societies are convulsed by crisis, a &ldquo;Fourth Turning&rdquo; &mdash; and it&rsquo;s been that way going back to the War of the Roses in the 15th century.
&ldquo;History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted,&rdquo; demographers William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote in their seminal 1997 book, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy.
&ldquo;The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If you haven&rsquo;t figured it out already, we&rsquo;re in such a crisis era now. 
The generations with adult memories of the crisis before this one &mdash; the Great Depression and World War II &mdash; are mostly gone. They&rsquo;re not around to impart the wisdom that present-day movers and shakers need to avert a rerun of the crisis cycle. (And even if they were, present-day movers and shakers probably wouldn&rsquo;t listen.)
And that&rsquo;s how it always goes.
Strauss and Howe anticipated the onset of a new crisis era somewhere around 2005. Strauss died in 2007; as Howe sees it, the current Fourth Turning began with the 2008 financial crisis.
Fourth Turnings last an average of 20&ndash;25 years, but they&rsquo;ve been known to drag on for as long as 32.
We&rsquo;re not even 17 years into the current one. So we&rsquo;ve still got a slog ahead &mdash; as Howe made clear in his 2023 follow-up tome The Fourth Turning Is Here.
<blockquote> ➢ The authors were also far-seeing enough to anticipate that the internet &mdash; widely hailed in 1997 as a force for individual liberation and autonomy &mdash; might become a tool for collective surveillance and censorship.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Fourth Turnings do come to an end. But they never end with the government smaller, less powerful and less intrusive than it was before the onset of the crisis.
Strauss and Howe don&rsquo;t state it exactly the way I just did. But going by their framework, the conclusion is inescapable.
For instance: Dwight Eisenhower became president a few years after the conclusion of the Great Depression-World War II crisis.
Upon taking office in 1953, he pledged his Republican Party would not undo the Democrats&rsquo; New Deal. Upon leaving office in 1961, Ike came to understand that the way Washington waged World War II gave rise to a &ldquo;military-industrial complex&rdquo; that operated beyond the control of elected leaders.
But, you ask, what about the American Revolution? That was a crisis era, right? And we freed ourselves from the yoke of British tyranny!
Tellingly, Strauss and Howe mark the conclusion of that crisis era not with victory at Yorktown in 1781 or ratification of the Constitution in 1788.
They mark it with the crushing of the tax revolt known as the Whiskey Rebellion in 1794.
Makes sense. That episode marked the defining victory of the Hamiltonians and a strong central government over the Jeffersonians and their vision of decentralism, devolution of power, subsidiarity.
The die was cast. Analogous to Ike in the 1950s, Thomas Jefferson did little to reverse the Federalist agenda during his presidency &mdash; his florid rhetoric about the &ldquo;Revolution of 1800&rdquo; notwithstanding.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Breaking the Cycle
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield, &amp; government to gain ground,&rdquo; Jefferson lamented to his fellow Virginian Edward Carrington during the ratification debates in 1788.
And yet&hellip;
And yet in recent years I&rsquo;ve come to believe it&rsquo;s possible that humanity is on the verge of ascending to a higher level of consciousness that would break the crisis cycle &mdash; and begin to fulfill Adams&rsquo; aspiration.
(Why I believe that to be so would require a foray into spirituality that&rsquo;s much too far afield from this e-letter&rsquo;s focus on markets and the economy.)
Until such a time arrives, my guiding principle when I put fingers to keyboard each day is the one laid down by the fellow who gave me my shot at this line of work.
Sauve qui peut. It&rsquo;s a French expression that translates roughly to &ldquo;Let he who can, save himself.&rdquo;
See, one day late in my newsroom career, at a moment I was feeling despondent about finding something different to do, my wife pressed me to identify what I really wanted.
I blurted out the clumsy sentence, &ldquo;I want to help people.&rdquo;
I gave it a bit more thought and refined it: At the very least, I wanted to do something of greater service to my fellow humans than working in a newsroom.
And here I am. The great thing about the financial publishing industry is that our whole reason for being is to empower the people who&rsquo;ve sought us out, guiding them to achieve a greater measure of financial independence.
The more financial independence we have, the more time and attention we can devote to the things that really matter &mdash; deepening our interpersonal relationships and our spiritual lives. To grow closer to each other and to God (however you might define that).
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7oYSxRnn0K1kn3dU4bRXGm/bb0fd30540d88e9729368ae005299ef3/life-luxuries.jpg" alt="life luxeries" width="450px" />
That&rsquo;s the vision. That&rsquo;s the hope. In a way, that&rsquo;s the essence of Adams&rsquo; aspiration &mdash; for all of us.
It&rsquo;s what keeps me going each day.
Nothing cynical about that.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
P.S.&nbsp;The big market stories today are Walmart and oil.
Walmart issued its quarterly numbers this morning &ndash; but the numbers were overshadowed by news that the company will raise prices on at least some items affected by tariffs. Speaking of WMT&rsquo;s wholesale costs, CFO John David Rainey tells&nbsp;The Wall Street Journal, &ldquo;The magnitude and speed at which these prices are coming to us is somewhat unprecedented in history,&rdquo;
Ahead of the market open, WMT shares are down more than three-quarters of a percent. The major U.S. stock indexes are down about a third of a percent. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are pulling back after the 10-year note popped over 4.5% yesterday.
Crude tumbled hard after Donald Trump said, &ldquo;We&rsquo;re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace.&rdquo; He offered no details, but nonetheless a barrel of West Texas Intermediate is down to $61.48.
Precious metals are licking their wounds from the price action earlier this week &ndash; gold a few bucks below $3,200 and silver a few cents above $32. Bitcoin hovers just below $103,000.
The one surprise among the day&rsquo;s economic numbers is wholesale prices. Whatever Walmart&rsquo;s experiencing doesn&rsquo;t show up in the April producer price index, down 0.5% month-over-month. Year-over-year, the official wholesale inflation rate is 2.4%.
Thanks for indulging us with this unusual edition today. Back to regularly-scheduled programming tomorrow.

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Readers complain this editor’s “cynicism” is too much. But if ever I end up in a cynical place, it’s because of the idealistic place from where I start.

9/11, the Financial Crisis and COVID

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Summer 2025: Maxed Out?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If you want to know what keeps America&rsquo;s energy planners up at night, just look at the numbers&hellip; 
This summer, PJM &mdash; the nation&rsquo;s largest power grid operator &mdash; expects demand to hit 154,000 megawatts (MW), enough to power over 120 million homes.
But in a worst-case heatwave? Demand could spike past 166,000 MW, threatening to outstrip reserves for the first time ever.
It&rsquo;s a scenario that would force PJM to call on emergency &ldquo;demand response&rdquo; programs, paying big customers to shut off the lights and keep the grid from buckling.
This isn&rsquo;t just a blip. It&rsquo;s the start of America&rsquo;s electricity squeeze &mdash; a reckoning with decades of flat demand, suddenly upended by the digital revolution.
For years, electricity demand in the U.S. barely budged, in fact, growing less than 1% a year between 2001&ndash;2023. To wit, a chart we&rsquo;ve referred to from time to time&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2YbmTm88vOJKR2kvTZJt4N/4917c142e2ace8002684670a4e381b42/5Bullets_Chart_051425.png" alt="something's gotta give" width="540px" />
And while policymakers focused on electric vehicles and the &ldquo;green economy,&rdquo; it turns out the <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-monster-that-ate-the-power-grid-ai">real disruptor</a> is artificial intelligence.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Data centers &mdash; those warehouse-sized &ldquo;brains&rdquo; of the internet, AI, crypto and more &mdash; already eat up 4.4% of America&rsquo;s electricity. By 2028, that could soar to nearly 12%. 
Meanwhile, S&amp;P Global predicts U.S. electricity use will jump about 25% by 2030, a pace not seen in decades.
And the surge isn&rsquo;t spread evenly. It&rsquo;s concentrated in &ldquo;Data Center Alley&rdquo; in Virginia, plus Texas, Ohio, Georgia and a handful of other states.
Utilities are scrambling. Entergy, for instance, is building 2,200 MW of new gas-fired capacity just to keep up with Meta&rsquo;s Louisiana data center. And pipeline operators report requests to connect 70 new data centers in 12 states.
Solar and wind? Growing fast, but they&rsquo;re not a silver bullet. PJM is urging owners of &ldquo;inverter-based resources&rdquo; to meet tougher standards to ensure reliability.
<ul>
<li>California&rsquo;s experience is a cautionary tale: Aggressive renewable mandates have driven up prices &mdash; residential rates now average 32 cents per kilowatt-hour, twice the national average.</li>
</ul>
For now, PJM, which manages the grid for 65 million people from Illinois to New Jersey, claims to have enough power generation for a typical summer.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> With hotter-than-normal weather predicted and record demand possible this summer, the margin for error is slim. If reserves run short, PJM will tap its 7,900 MW of contracted demand response, paying factories, warehouses and even some neighborhoods to cut usage in a pinch.
Behind the scenes, PJM is hustling to adapt:
<ul>
<li>Faster grid connections: By automating processes and adding staff, PJM has cut the backlog of new power projects by 60%. A new partnership with Google will use AI tools to further accelerate grid interconnections</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Reliability boost: PJM&rsquo;s one-time Reliability Resource Initiative will bring 9,300 MW of ready-to-build projects online by 2030 to fill capacity gaps</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Smarter demand response: New federal rules let customers reduce electricity use year-round, not just during summer peaks, making it easier for PJM to balance supply and demand.</li>
</ul>
But the grid&rsquo;s balancing act is getting harder: Old coal and nuclear plants are retiring faster than new resources can replace them.
&ldquo;This outlook at a record peak heat scenario reflects our years-long and mounting concerns as we plan for enough resources to maintain grid reliability,&rdquo; says Aftab Khan, PJM&rsquo;s head of operations.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Nuclear Comeback
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Here&rsquo;s where things get interesting: Americans&rsquo; attitudes toward nuclear energy are shifting.
According to Gallup, 61% now favor nuclear power &mdash; the highest since 2010, and up 16 points since 2016.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4bsE4kg0woSJvyftfgO4PR/7f3dc388b922b0ddb18b8bb11e22786d/Screenshot_2025-05-13_at_1.28.39_PM.png" alt="Americans' Opinion on Nuclear Energy" width="540px" />
Most notably, support has surged among Republicans (now 74%) and independents (64%), while Democrats&rsquo; support has held steady at 46%, according to Gallup.
Why the change? Partly, it&rsquo;s the sheer scale of the electricity squeeze. Natural gas is still king, providing 43% of U.S. electricity and fueling most new data center projects. But nuclear is suddenly back in the conversation, thanks to its reliability and zero-carbon credentials.
Even President Trump, who campaigned on an &ldquo;all of the above&rdquo; energy strategy, now touts smaller, modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) as &ldquo;cheaper, more scalable alternatives&rdquo; to the mega-projects of the past.
The Department of Energy is putting real money behind the idea, issuing $900 million in funding to accelerate the rollout of next-generation SMRs. There are now 42 SMR companies vying for a slice of the market, though none has broken ground yet.
America&rsquo;s electricity squeeze is real, and the digital economy is pushing the grid to its limits. With demand soaring and old plants retiring, the grid faces unprecedented challenges. Reliable natural gas will fill the gap for now, but nuclear is poised for a comeback.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Road Trip!
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I&rsquo;m headed to Consensus 2025 &mdash; aka the Davos of crypto,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s crypto expert and intrepid road-tripper, Chris Campbell, who first recounts a timeline of past conferences.
&ldquo;The first event&rdquo; &mdash; in 2015 &mdash;&rdquo; was held in NYC, drawing a modest crowd of developers, VCs and early Ethereum enthusiasts,&rdquo; Chris notes. &ldquo;It was so early Bitcoiners and Ethereum bulls still (kind of) got along.
&ldquo;In 2017, the bull run sent crypto to the moon. Two thousand people showed up. Bitcoin hit $20k.
&ldquo;In 2018, over 8,000 people packed the Hilton Midtown. Lambos were parked outside. Celebrities made an appearance. ICO bros flooded the lobby.
&ldquo;2019? Doldrums. The bear market set in, the regulators were circling. Consensus talks pivoted from hopium to infrastructure and real use cases.
&ldquo;Miami 2021, [Bitcoin] bros were throwing parties that felt more like a rap music video than a financial awakening.
&ldquo;Austin 2022, [everyone] was glancing around nervously.
&ldquo;And [in] 2023&hellip; booths were empty, the atmosphere was apocalyptic and the spirit of Gary Gensler haunted the venue.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Now, this year&rsquo;s Consensus feels different. Toronto 2025 feels&hellip; sober,&rdquo; Chris emphasizes.
&ldquo;Let&rsquo;s start with the obvious: Eric Trump is speaking. His new mining company &lsquo;American Bitcoin&rsquo; is reportedly going public.
&ldquo;Then there&rsquo;s Bo Hines,&rdquo; Chris adds. &ldquo;He&rsquo;s heading the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets &mdash; and he&rsquo;s laying out the White House's official strategy for crypto legislation. (Something tells me the words &lsquo;stablecoins&rsquo; and &lsquo;tokenized Treasuries&rsquo; will be uttered. A lot.)
&ldquo;Adrienne Harris, superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), will address regulatory frameworks in America&rsquo;s strictest state.
&ldquo;And the wild cards, like Dave Portnoy, who will talk about&hellip; Honestly, I have no idea.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Three things I&rsquo;ll be tracking like a hawk&hellip; 
<ol>
<li>Stablecoins and Real-World Assets (RWAs) &mdash; Everyone from Larry Fink to your Uber driver is talking about tokenization</li>
<li>DePIN &mdash; Decentralized physical infrastructure is having a moment. Someone is going to figure out how to turn crypto into actual roads and wires. That&rsquo;s when the real fight begins</li>
<li>AI x Blockchain &mdash; Half the speakers will say this is the dumbest combo since orange juice and toothpaste. The other half are quietly funding it. I&rsquo;ll let you know who&rsquo;s right.</li>
</ol>
&ldquo;One thing I do know,&rdquo; Chris concludes. &ldquo;This year is different. It&rsquo;s not just another conference. It&rsquo;s a show of hands.
&ldquo;Is crypto still a punchline? Or is it finally growing up?
&ldquo;I&rsquo;m voting on the latter,&rdquo; he confirms. &ldquo;But I&rsquo;m here to find out for sure.&rdquo;
We look forward to sharing more insights from Chris Campbell in the days ahead, and if you&rsquo;re attending Consensus 2025, Chris invites you to say hello.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Consulting our screen today, the crypto market is in the red: Bitcoin&rsquo;s down over 1% to $103,500; at the same time, Ethereum is down almost 4% to $2,595. 
Stocks, conversely, are hanging out in green territory. The tech-heavy Nasdaq&rsquo;s gained the most &mdash; up 0.60% to 19,130. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 500 and Dow are up 0.20% and 0.05% respectively.&nbsp;
Crude is getting whacked today; a barrel of WTI is down 1.10%, priced just under $63. As for precious metals, gold is down 1.80% to $3,188.50 per ounce, and silver is down 2% to $32.45.
The yield on a 10-year T-note is up to 4.52% this morning &mdash; still ticking up, and reminiscent of April&rsquo;s <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/doge-boys-disappoint">bond market freakout</a> we mentioned in yesterday&rsquo;s 5 Bullets. 
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Trump Courts Syria&rsquo;s Ex-Jihadist
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> President Trump announced the lifting of long-standing U.S. sanctions on Syria, marking a dramatic reversal in American policy and igniting controversy. 
The move comes as Trump embarks on a Gulf tour dominated by massive business deals, including a $600 billion Saudi investment pledge and $142 billion in arms sales.
But central to the Syrian controversy is Trump&rsquo;s meeting today in Riyadh with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the country&rsquo;s &ldquo;interim president,&rdquo; who until recently led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham &mdash; a group with direct al-Qaida ties and a record of attacks on U.S. troops. Sharaa&rsquo;s rise to power followed the ouster of Bashar al-Assad; his appointment has not erased concerns over his militant past.
The optics are troubling: Trump is the first U.S. president to meet with a leader so closely associated with terrorism. Notably, Sharaa has yet to commit to basic U.S. demands, such as expelling foreign fighters or signing the Abraham Accords of 2020 &mdash; which would open diplomatic relations with Israel.
Instead, Sharaa has dangled lucrative incentives, including offers for U.S. companies to invest in Syria&rsquo;s oil-and-gas sector and even a proposal for a Trump Tower in Damascus.
These overtures would directly benefit the Trump Organization, which is reportedly pursuing new branded projects in Qatar, Dubai and Abu Dhabi as part of broader Gulf business expansion.
Like we said: Bad optics.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On the other hand, credit where credit is due: This time, the endorsement comes from Arnaud Bertrand, an internet entrepreneur and forthright critic of Trump, whom we have occasionally cited.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5b0ctRe5vEcoTd7N8LYnGs/33eaaee22ec3ac895cca567e34a953f7/Arnaud2-white-play-btn.jpg" alt="arnaud tweet" width="450px" />
&ldquo;All in all,&rdquo; Bertrand says via X, &ldquo;whilst Trump can be criticized for many things &mdash; and I do so myself all the time &mdash; his recognition with this speech that different civilizational models can coexist without one imposing itself on others is actually a profound and immensely necessary step toward genuine peace &mdash; regardless of who articulates it.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" /> Elon, Yo Mama Is So&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Silicon Valley&rsquo;s crosswalks got punked last weekend. Hacked pedestrian signals in Palo Alto, Menlo Park and Redwood City swapped their usual &ldquo;walk&rdquo; and &ldquo;wait&rdquo; instructions for uncanny AI-generated banter from faux Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.
For instance, pedestrians were greeted by a supposed message from Musk, including&hellip;
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;Will you be my friend? I&rsquo;ll give you a Cybertruck&rdquo;</li>
<li>&ldquo;You know, they say money can&rsquo;t buy happiness and... I guess that&rsquo;s true. God knows I&rsquo;ve tried.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
Meanwhile, a Zuckerberg soundalike introduced himself as &ldquo;The Zuck,&rdquo; before musing about &ldquo;insert[ing] AI into every facet of your conscious experience.&rdquo;
Burn? 
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/69fMDoXC0oTkLbVwNTIvoS/848447e593969da462f1594a9db3fd3d/WallStreetApes-white-play-btn.jpg" alt="wall street apes tweet" width="450px" />
The prank, which played out at about a dozen crossings &mdash; including some near Meta&rsquo;s sprawling campus &mdash; quickly went viral on social media, with locals alternating between laughter and confusion. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s quite an impressive form of protest art,&rdquo; one Redwood City resident told reporters.
&ldquo;City staff have disabled the audible feature until further repairs can be made,&rdquo; says Meghan Horrigan-Taylor, a Palo Alto spokeswoman.
So far, the identity of the prankster remains a mystery&hellip;
But leave it to some Silicon Valley nerd to hack pedestrian crossings with billionaire impressions instead of just lobbing a few classic &ldquo;Yo Mama&rdquo; jokes at Elon and Zuck.
Take care, reader! We&rsquo;ll be back at it tomorrow&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Summer

If you want to know what keeps America’s energy planners up at night, just look at the numbers. 

Summer 2025: Maxed Out? 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Here We Go Again
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />All is calm again in the stock market now that there&rsquo;s a truce in the trade war&hellip; but the bond market is once more showing signs of stress.
A quick refresher from last month: Bond prices collapsed, sending yields soaring, in the wake of the president&rsquo;s &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; announcement. The yield on a 10-year Treasury zoomed up from 3.99% to over 4.5% in a week &mdash; a massive disruption in bond-land.
Recall that the stock market was selling off hard at that time. Usually Treasuries serve as a safe haven. At such times, bond prices rally and yields fall. But not last month. It seems foreigners in particular were eager to dump their Treasury holdings.
The mainstream narrative was that it was all Trump&rsquo;s fault with the on-again, off-again tariff uncertainty.
And while that was certainly part of the story, the trouble had been building for a while.
For one thing, the bond market is getting increasingly apprehensive about the gargantuan size of Uncle Sam&rsquo;s debt. The jitters were made worse when Congress moved last month to scrap a 50-year tradition called &ldquo;reconciliation&rdquo; that kinda-sorta kept the growth of the debt in check.
Too, there&rsquo;s lingering bad blood from when the Biden administration froze the U.S. Treasury paper owned by Russia&rsquo;s central bank &mdash; even handing the interest payments to Ukraine. Dozens of foreign leaders thought, If it can happen to them, it can happen to us.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Here we go again: The yield on a 10-year T-note is up to 4.47% this morning &mdash; nearly as high as it was at the peak of the bond market freakout last month.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/wY3A7AKKZHxKB5jua9gJ4/b3fd16538d848d413334e80c7641f7b6/5Bullets_Chart_051325.png" alt="this stress is back" width="540px" />
That&rsquo;s because two things happened after we hit &ldquo;send&rdquo; on yesterday&rsquo;s edition&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The first thing that happened is the Treasury Department issued its monthly statement of income and outflows for the month of April.
The April statement is usually an outlier: Uncle Sam records a surplus because of all those income tax payments. That&rsquo;s the case for April 2025, and indeed the surplus is higher than it was in April 2024 (helped a bit by record tariff payments).
But look at the spending column. Spending was up 4.4% year-over-year. What the hell is the &ldquo;Department of Government Efficiency&rdquo; accomplishing, exactly?
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1HbWypdHORXeVfPTl0BiN6/7cf2648b62be17bdcbc338b35d61edea/5Bullets_DOGE_progress_chart_0525.png" alt="Are the doge boys dozing?" width="540px" />
For the first three full months of the Trump 47 administration, spending was a hair higher &mdash; about 1.2% &mdash; than it was during the same three months of 2024, when Joe Biden was handing out goodies in hopes of winning a second term.
<a id="2"></a>
The numbers are the numbers. And they don&rsquo;t live up to the DOGE boys&rsquo; brash proclamations.
True, one month&rsquo;s figures might not have been enough to move the bond market by themselves. Which brings us to the second thing that happened yesterday&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Trump Tax Cuts 2.0
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The second thing that happened is that congressional Republicans released their big tax bill.
As we mention now and then, the 2017 Trump tax cuts expire at the end of this year. Everyone returns to Obama-era rates if Congress doesn&rsquo;t act.
This bill would not only extend current rates &mdash; it would also include some additional targeted tax relief. For starters, the bill would raise the $10,000 cap on the SALT deduction for state and local taxes to $30,000. And in many instances, taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits would end.
Desirable as those measures are, they&rsquo;ll dig Uncle Sam&rsquo;s fiscal hole even deeper. What do congressional Republicans intend to do to compensate?
Well, they don&rsquo;t want to jack up the top rate on incomes of $2.5 million or more from 37% to 39.6%. And they also don&rsquo;t want to do away with the &ldquo;carried interest loophole&rdquo; used by private equity managers. Both of those ideas had Trump&rsquo;s either tacit or explicit endorsement.
Instead, the bill&rsquo;s architects decided to use the tax code to wage the culture wars &mdash; scrapping many tax breaks for electric vehicles and &ldquo;clean&rdquo; energy production, while looking to sharply raise the taxes paid by university endowments on their investment income.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But the real kicker to the bill is that it raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.
As a reminder, the debt ceiling has been in effect since Jan. 2 of this year. To stay under the $36.2 trillion ceiling, the Treasury has been resorting to &ldquo;extraordinary measures&rdquo; such borrowing against government pension funds.
&ldquo;Including the debt ceiling in the broader bill will allow Republicans to avoid Democratic demands for concessions in exchange for their votes to raise the debt limit,&rdquo; reports The Hill.
&ldquo;But tacking debt limit action onto the same vehicle they&rsquo;re using for Trump&rsquo;s tax plans could also put a tight time crunch on Republicans to pass the sweeping tax bill.&rdquo;
Indeed, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says his people will run out of accounting tricks by August &mdash; which means Congress needs to do something before its August recess.
Right now, that seems like a tall order: Blue-state Republicans are likely to hold out for a bigger cap to the SALT deduction. Deficit hawks, meanwhile, want far deeper spending cuts than anything currently on the table.
Recall that the Republican majority in the House is razor-thin. And while Speaker Mike Johnson has exercised an iron discipline over his fractious caucus so far, the legislation will be his biggest challenge yet.
If he can&rsquo;t pull it off&hellip; and if the U.S. government actively defaults on the national debt&hellip;
Well, that&rsquo;s why the bond market is freaking out anew. Stay tuned&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Inflation: As Good as It Gets
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The official inflation numbers are the tamest in over four years.
The Labor Department is out with the April consumer price index. It registered a 0.2% month-over-month increase, which works out to a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.3%. That&rsquo;s the lowest since inflation started taking off in earnest in March 2021 (peaking over 9% in June 2022).
As always, these numbers likely bear no resemblance to your own cost of living.
It helped that energy prices fell 3.7% compared with a year earlier. But you were in a world of hurt last month if you needed your car fixed (up 5.6% year-over-year) or your auto insurance came due (up 6.4%) or you went to a ballgame or other sporting event (up 9.3%).
This month&rsquo;s numbers are probably as good as it gets. As we&rsquo;ve chronicled for a while now, once inflation sails past 5%, <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/declare-your-independence-from-inflation">it typically takes a decade to get back to &ldquo;normal&rdquo; 2% levels</a>.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Whether it&rsquo;s the inflation numbers or something else, Wall Street is adding to yesterday&rsquo;s big gains driven by the trade-war truce.
At last check the S&amp;P 500 is up nearly 0.9% and only four points away from 5,900. The Nasdaq is up 1.5% and back above 19,000 for the first time since late February. The Dow is slightly in the red.
Precious metals are catching their breath after yesterday&rsquo;s beat-down, gold at $3,247 and silver at $32.88. (Silver is quietly outperforming gold in recent days. Hmmm&hellip;) Crude is up big again, over 2.2% to $63.33, the highest in over two weeks.
Bitcoin is hanging tough at $103,642.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> If small-business owners were worried last month about tariffs, you wouldn&rsquo;t know it from the go-to source of small-business sentiment data.
The National Federation of Independent Business is out with its monthly Optimism Index, the result of a survey conducted during April.
The headline number fell 1.6 points to 95.8, the weakest since Donald Trump&rsquo;s election last fall.
But contrary to what you might expect, uncertainty among survey respondents eased relative to previous months; the uncertainty index in April was no worse than it was last August.
As for the part of the survey where business owners are asked to identify their single most important problem, it seems good help is still hard to find &mdash; &ldquo;quality of labor&rdquo; was cited by 19%.
But for the first time in what seems like forever, inflation does not rank in the top two on this portion of the survey. Taxes are in second place, cited by 16%, followed by inflation at 14%. &ldquo;Cost/availability of insurance&rdquo; is creeping higher, now cited by 10%.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4yt9tZ4HkZ6C9OHFPZRAr2/f8a28dbee4ff0b27729caae6a4e24365/Apocalypse.png" alt="Apocalypse" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Readers Stand up for Tax Incentives
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Because you never know what might get readers&rsquo; dander up&hellip; we were a bit surprised at the pushback to Saturday&rsquo;s edition hitting out at the tax incentives for a new Microsoft data center in northwest Indiana.
&ldquo;I always appreciate your contributions, but Saturday&rsquo;s headline flashed red because La Porte is very nearby and I know and work with the consultants responsible for the transaction described in your article. And as a business/real estate transactional attorney, I&rsquo;m involved in data center transactions for sellers, buyers and developers.
&ldquo;I&rsquo;m not suggesting that you shouldn&rsquo;t provide a sensational headline to garner eyes, but would suggest that your article is missing several key components when looking at the larger landscape. One notable factor is that data center companies are not at all enthralled and trying to push back on the power supply regimen being adopted by Northern Indiana Public Service Co. &mdash; under which the power-generating stations for data centers will be separately funded by the data center users, which will pay commercial rates negotiated by NIPSCO on a user-by-user basis.
&ldquo;And while I don&rsquo;t know all of the specific detail of the public financing component, I did see some early outline of the underlying structure and understand how it will benefit the community, particularly since this data center will be developed upon land that would have nowhere near the tax-generating revenue this project would provide.
&ldquo;In any event, this is good public discourse, but would suggest terms such as &lsquo;scam&rsquo; and &lsquo;holding the bag&rsquo; and portraying individuals I happen to know and respect as &lsquo;tripping over themselves to hand out incentives&rsquo; are off the mark. That said, I&rsquo;m not in your business, just a person looking to rely upon and benefit from the collective intelligence and experience of the Paradigm Group to make good decisions.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Another reader was less kind and pushed back with what looks like the help of an AI engine.
&ldquo;It literally took me 15 seconds to find out facts, and I already knew about the huge advantages to a community when the city government negotiates a large tax credit.
<blockquote>Allowing a 30% tax credit for new businesses and industries can have several positive financial effects on a city government:</blockquote>
<blockquote>Increased Economic Activity: New businesses can boost local spending, leading to higher sales tax revenues.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Job Creation: More businesses typically mean more jobs, reducing unemployment and increasing income tax collections (if applicable).</blockquote>
<blockquote>Property Value Growth: New industries can raise property values, leading to higher property tax revenues.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Long-Term Tax Base Expansion: While initial tax credits reduce revenue, the growth in businesses and population can significantly expand the tax base over time.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Attracting Complementary Businesses: New industries often attract suppliers and related businesses, further boosting economic growth.</blockquote>
<blockquote>These benefits can outweigh the short-term revenue losses from the tax credits if the strategy successfully stimulates sustained economic development.&rsquo;</blockquote>
&ldquo;This has been going on for decades! And it&rsquo;s turned around and launched numerous cities into their next generation of prosperity!
&ldquo;Atlanta did it with the film Industry!
&ldquo;La Porte is a tiny depressed town. This will rocket their city into a prosperous future!
&ldquo;You people are idiots!&rdquo;
Dave responds: Because it&rsquo;s &ldquo;idiotic&rdquo; to think government has no place picking winners and losers?
As it happens, a boutique think tank called Good Jobs First is out with <a href="https://goodjobsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Cloudy-with-a-Loss-of-Spending-Control-How-Data-Centers-Are-Endangering-State-Budgets.pdf">a report</a> calling out state governments for being too eager to hand special favors to data center developers. From the executive summary&hellip;
<blockquote>At least 10 states already lose more than $100 million per year in tax revenue to data centers, the cloud-computing warehouses that were proliferating before artificial intelligence greatly accelerated their growth.</blockquote>
<blockquote>The industry&rsquo;s high-velocity growth, combined with the virtually automatic structure of the state tax exemptions, is preventing states from making accurate cost projections. For example, in the space of just 23 months, Texas revised its FY 2025 cost projection from $130 million to $1 billion. Virginia, Texas and Illinois have each recorded revenue-loss spikes of more than 1,000% in recent years.</blockquote>
<blockquote>The loss of state spending control is surely worse than we can yet document. That&rsquo;s because of the 32 states with tax incentives to data centers, 12 fail to disclose even aggregate revenue losses, much less company-specific subsidies as is common in economic development. Those 12 &ldquo;dark&rdquo; states include Indiana, North Carolina and Utah, all of which have substantial and/or growing data center investments.</blockquote>
Don&rsquo;t get us wrong. The lower corporate taxes are, the better. But those low rates should apply to everyone; trouble snowballs whenever government starts playing favorites.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

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