How 50 States Are (Now) Giving You Access

Prediction Markets Uncovered

Last year, a French trader — using four Polymarket accounts — staked over $28 million on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

The number stands as a testament to how prediction platforms have evolved. These are not idle diversions but calculated, high-stakes decisions — with significant capital at risk.

Polymarket, specifically, has emerged as a major digital forum for speculating on real-world events. The platform, in fact, predicted Trump’s win over Harris more accurately than mainstream polls, showing a clear lead for Trump long before Election Day.

For instance, in Polymarket’s U.S. elections category, here was the breakdown around the time the French trader made his multimillion-dollar wager…

Powered by Ethereum’s blockchain, Polymarket offers contracts on a range of yes/no outcomes — from political elections and beyond.

Paradigm’s decentralized finance (DeFi) expert James Altucher notes: “[This] shadowy corner of the internet is creating millionaires betting on everything from a Ukraine peace treaty to… the Second Coming of Christ! (Can’t make this stuff up.) 

“The growth of this new market is staggering,” James says. “Trading volumes have exploded from $73 million in 2023 to over $9 billion in 2024. That’s a 123-fold increase in just 12 months.”

The appeal is obvious: simplicity, transparency and scale. “Think of it as a stock market for real-world events,” James explains. “Instead of buying shares in Apple, you're buying contracts that pay out if specific things happen.”

• Shares are priced between $0 and $1, reflecting the market’s belief in the event’s probability. If your prediction is correct, your share pays out $1 after the result is confirmed; if wrong, it’s worthless. You can sell shares at any time, and all trades are peer-to-peer.

And the real action, says James, isn’t necessarily found in the obvious, high-profile bets including “Will Trump win the election?”

Traders like the pseudonymous “Just Punched” have made serious money betting on fringe issues. “He systematically bets against unlikely events and has accumulated nearly $2.1 million in profits,” James notes.

Egg prices exceeding $5 per carton, the next pope coming from Africa and obscure European elections — he bets these things won’t happen when the market gives them too much credit.

“In all of these cases, Just Punched predicted that the events had a less than 1% chance of happening, while the market was pricing them at 5% or 10%,” says James. “That gap represents pure profit for savvy traders willing to take the other side of these bets.

“Of course, there are risks to this strategy… but they’re manageable,” he continues. “Just Punched has been successful because he’s disciplined about position sizing and risk management. No single bet represents more than a small fraction of his total capital.”

James’ takeaway: Polymarket and its peers have opened a window into a new financial frontier. “Anyone can do this,” he insists. “You don’t need a finance degree or millions in starting capital to get in on the action.”

With one major caveat: As of July 2025, Americans cannot legally trade on Polymarket; U.S. users are still restricted to view-only access due to ongoing regulatory constraints and former CFTC actions.

• Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market platform open to Americans in 2025, though legal challenges have been filed
• Robinhood and Crypto.com also offer legal prediction markets to U.S. users, though state-specific restrictions may apply.

You do need to be early. “Smart traders are positioning themselves now, before these markets become saturated with institutional money,” James concludes. The prediction market revolution is just beginning.

[If prediction markets aren’t your thing… James Altucher recently revealed his top wealth-building strategy for 2025. Watch his quick video and see how you can get started with under $500. Don’t miss your chance to beta-test James’ new trading service! This opportunity won’t wait — act now.]

Inflation Watch

June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows U.S. inflation is picking up: CPI increased 2.7% over the past year — up from 2.4% in May — marking the highest annual rate since February. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.3%, the biggest jump in five months, on par with what economists expected.

Recent tariffs on imported goods have begun to push prices higher, especially for products like apparel, home goods and groceries.

• Food prices climbed 0.3% for the month and 3% over the year, with notable increases on items like eggs and beef
• The cost of housing rose 0.2% in June, up 3.8% in the past year
• Energy prices, including gasoline, increased sharply by 0.9%, reversing May’s decline.

Even with volatile food and energy prices excluded, “core” CPI rose 2.9% from a year ago, slightly below forecast, but still showing persistent underlying inflation.

How’s the market responding to the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation?

Two of three major U.S. stock indexes are floundering today. The Dow (-0.70%) and S&P 500 (-0.10%) are hanging out at 44,145 and 6,260 respectively. But the tech-loving Nasdaq is rebounding — up 0.60% to 6,260.

In a moment, we'll take a closer look at a Nasdaq stock that's rallying hard today, but here’s a hint:

Turning to commodities, the price of crude’s down 1% to $66.28 for a barrel of WTI. Likewise, precious metals are slumping today. Gold’s down 0.75% to $3,332.60 per ounce while silver’s down almost 2% to $38.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s pulled back 2% to $117,415. Ethereum? Up almost 2% to $3,055.

Market Miscellany

JPMorgan Chase reported better-than-expected results for the second quarter, officially kicking off earnings season.

While overall revenue was down 10% from last year, strong trading and investment banking results helped the bottom line. The bank earned $4.96 per share on $44.9 billion in revenue; net income was $15 billion.

The bank’s return on tangible equity was 21% — meaning JPM earned $0.21 in profit over the past year for every dollar of shareholders’ money invested in the business.

CEO Jamie Dimon says the U.S. economy “remained resilient,” though he warns about risks from trade tensions, high asset prices and global conflicts.

Next, if the number can be believed, China's economy grew 5.2% in the second quarter compared to a year ago, exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. Despite the ongoing trade war, growth was reportedly driven by exports, especially to countries outside the U.S.

Still, concerns persist about China’s struggling property sector, and Bloomberg notes that good export numbers are “masking deepening pressure caused by weak consumer demand at home.” Economists warn growth could slow in the second half of the year.

Finally, it’s definitely worth mentioning: Nvidia received U.S. government approval to sell its H20 AI chips to China. These chips had been restricted due to export controls aimed at limiting China’s access to advanced U.S. technology.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the news in a blog post and broadcast interview, saying the company can now ship H20 chips legally. The decision is seen as a win for Nvidia and may boost sales in the key Chinese market. Nvidia shares are up over 4% today.

AI is Hungry. Not for Data

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2030, data centers — most of them running AI — will consume more electricity than the entire country of Japan uses annually.

(In the U.S., data centers could account for up to 12% of all electricity consumption by 2028, up from 4.4% in 2023.)

But it’s not just volume. It’s volatility. Andreas Schierenbeck, CEO of Hitachi Energy, warns: “AI data centers are fundamentally different... because they can surge dramatically.

“When you initiate your AI algorithm to process data,” he says, “the power usage peaks within seconds, reaching levels that are 10 times their usual consumption. [No] other industry is allowed as volatile a use of power as the AI sector.”

In fact, traditional industries must notify utilities before ramping up operations; this level of volatility, you can imagine, is a nightmare for grid operators.

Here’s another nightmare: a transformer shortage — not only the pole-mounted variety — but the massive industrial devices that adjust voltage and keep the grid stable.

As AI and data centers ramp up, transformers are in short supply. The sector, valued at $48 billion today, is expected to grow to $67 billion by 2030.

Demand has skyrocketed beyond anything the industry predicted. To wit, the world’s biggest transformer maker, Hitachi Energy, is facing a $43 billion order backlog — triple what it was three years ago.

Where it once took six–eight months to get a new transformer, utilities now face two-year waits, and in some cases, up to four years if orders aren’t already in the pipeline.

Schierenbeck estimates it could take up to three years for Hitachi to catch up, even as his company invests $6 billion — and an additional $250 million specifically for transformer production in the U.S., Europe, India and China — with plans to hire 15,000 more workers by 2027.

“Ramping up capacity is an issue,” he notes. “It’s not easy, and it will probably not ramp up fast enough.” And when transformers are delayed, entire infrastructure projects can be held up, threatening grid reliability.

As data centers multiply and their power needs spike unpredictably, the grid’s vulnerabilities are being laid bare. The transformer bottleneck is a vivid example: Even with billions in investment, supply simply can’t keep pace with AI’s appetite.

The Third Battle of Manassas

Virginia’s Manassas battlefield — the site where over 27,000 Civil War casualties occurred — is at the center of a conflict between history preservation and the booming AI industry.

Tech companies plan to build a massive data center complex, covering over 23 million square feet, near these historic grounds, sparking intense debate over environmental, cultural and community impacts.

This expansion has raised serious concerns among environmentalists and local residents, especially regarding the risk to historic landscapes and the strain on resources.

We’ve already established these AI facilities consume enormous amounts of electricity (as well as land and water). Dominion Power, in fact, predicts Virginia’s data center energy use will quadruple in the next decade.

Ann Bennett of the Sierra Club warns this is “a growing crisis” fueled by tax breaks worth over $730 million, with ordinary consumers bearing the brunt of rising energy costs.

And Jim Matte of the Bull Run Legion confirms the deep unease: “Nobody wants to look into the forest and see these massive monoliths rising.”

While data center companies pledge respect for historic sites by adding trails and informational kiosks — pfft! — critics argue these measures can’t replace the loss of open views and the sense of connection to the past.

As Virginia grapples with the tension between growth and preservation, the battlefield stands as a powerful reminder of a larger challenge: in an age defined by rapid technological change, how to protect the past while building the future.

That's an excellent question, no?

Have a wonderful day, and we’ll catch up with you tomorrow!

Best regards,

Emily Clancy
Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets