The Alaska Doctrine
The Alaska Doctrine
Another day, another acquisition for Uncle Sam’s growing portfolio of natural resources companies.
“The U.S. said it will take a 10% stake in Canadian minerals explorer Trilogy Metals Inc. as part of a $35.6 million investment to secure critical energy and mining projects in Alaska,” Bloomberg reported late yesterday.
In making the announcement, Donald Trump reversed the Biden administration’s decision to nix a highway project called Ambler Road. Construction of Ambler Road will now give Trilogy access to vast deposits of copper, cobalt, gallium and germanium.
If the last of those two sound vaguely familiar, it’s because China banned U.S.-bound exports of those metals last year. They’re essential for high-end computer chips.
As we write this morning, shares of Trilogy (TMQ) are up 212% from yesterday’s close. And a select group of Paradigm readers is very happy.
Our resident geologist Byron King talked up Trilogy last April during a livestream event from Jekyll Island, Georgia. He was certain the Trump administration would approve Ambler Road.
The Trilogy announcement comes only two business days after the rare-earth firm USA Rare Earth (USAR) said it was talking with the Trump administration — presumably about a similar arrangement.
As mentioned yesterday, members of the Paradigm Mastermind Group are benefiting from that one — with USAR shares up 89% in two months.
The deals are coming fast and furious since the first one three months ago — when the Pentagon announced it was taking a 15% stake in the rare-earth company MP Materials. Our readers reaped gains from that one, too.
Credit goes first and foremost to our macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards — who said in January the Trump administration intends to open up huge swaths of federally owned land to energy and mineral development. Potential value of the resources under that land — $150 trillion. The “American Birthright,” Jim called it.
In April, we directed your attention here in these 5 Bullets to a new wrinkle in the Birthright story: Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the U.S. government was looking to invest in mining companies — as he put it, “equity investment in each of these companies that’s taking on China in critical minerals.”
If you’ve missed out on any of these opportunities, don’t beat yourself up. There’s more where these came from.
That’s because as 2025 starts drawing to a close, Jim Rickards says the “American Birthright” agenda is moving into Phase II.
During Phase II, the companies whose share prices will benefit most are the ones you couldn’t possibly guess at.
That’s because they don’t extract oil and gas from the ground. Nor do they mine metals.
But under federal law, they could be only days away from becoming the most important stocks in the mining industry — signing contracts that could net up to $10 million a day.
And as Jim shows you when you follow this link, there’s historical precedent at work — unleashing the potential to make 200X your money in the next three years. If you missed out on Phase I (or even if you didn’t), now’s the time to get the scoop on Phase II.
Gold $4K
A day after Bitcoin set a record price, gold futures broke over $4,000 for the first time this morning — in what looks like a rush into non-dollar assets.
“People are looking to short the dollar, but they are not quite sure what currency to purchase,” says Nicky Shiels of the trading firm and precious metals refinery MKS Pamp. “That uncertainty leads you straight to gold,” she tells the Financial Times.
Even with the gold price up 50% this year, it’s only now that institutional investors are tiptoeing toward gold as a long-term hold — “for the first time in a long time” as the head of metals research at Bank of America describes it.
At the same time, the big investment bank Morgan Stanley says it’s time to rethink the traditional portfolio allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds — suggesting that bonds be cut to 20% with the other 20% devoted to the Midas metal.
“Gold looks a bit more attractive as a diversifier to long equity position than bonds do,” is how Maya Bhandari from Neuberger Berman puts it to the FT.
All that said, big winners “get overbought and are subject to pullbacks,” says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta.
On the “daily feed” section of the Paradigm mobile app, Enrique says the gold price is now 25% above its 200-day moving average. “Historically a premium above 20% is short-lived.”
There’ve been six times when gold has traded 20% or more above the 200 DMA. “The average drawdown is 15% over 42 days.”
That would send gold down to about $3,370 — which, we’ll point out, was an all-time high only six months ago!
“Maybe this time is different?” Enrique muses. “Earlier this year when gold was over 20% above the 200 DMA, it fell 7.2% in 17 days.” A similar move from current levels would bring gold back to $3,675 — which was a record only last month!
While gold futures crossed $4,000 this morning, the spot price has yet to do the same. At last check, it’s at $3,980. Meanwhile, silver has slipped back below $48 for the moment.
As for the stock market, it’s taking a rest after a string of all-time closing highs.
The S&P 500 is down about a third of a percent as we write — 6,715. The Dow is holding up better while the Nasdaq is down over a half percent.
Among the big movers today is the parent firm of the New York Stock Exchange, Atlanta-based Intercontinental Exchange. ICE shares leaped 4.6% in early trade after news the company
plans to invest $2 billion in the predictions site Polymarket.
As the mainstream sees it, ICE’s investment could help Polymarket return to the United States. It exited the U.S. market in 2022 under pressure from the Biden administration.
But from our perch, here’s what makes this move look singularly savvy: If stock trading is moving in the direction of the blockchain and tokenization, who’s going to need exchanges and brokerages? Diversifying into the predictions market assures ICE’s long-term survival.
➢ Congratulations are in order once again for Altucher's True Alpha Yesterday they collected 569% gains playing call options on a quantum computing firm. Sorry, this premium advisory is currently closed to new readers, but we’ll let you know as soon as it reopens.
Uptober: Mainstream Finance Embraces Crypto
“Uptober is upon us,” says Paradigm crypto analyst Chris Campbell.
Bitcoin’s price has risen in October for 10 of the last 11 years — logging an average gain just shy of 20%. Even as the price is pulling back from yesterday’s record — $121,824 as we check our screens — it’s up 6.7% so far this October.
“Crypto ETF flows are on fire,” Chris says. “Last week’s numbers: $3.24 billion into Bitcoin, $1.3 billion into Ethereum, $707 million into Solana.”
Just as with gold, institutional acceptance is growing. Chris draws a sharp contrast between the evolving views of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon… and JPM analysts elbow-deep in research.
2020 (analyst): “Bitcoin passed its ‘first real stress test.' Higher.”
2021 (Dimon): "Bitcoin is worthless..."
2021 (analyst): “$146K is possible in coming years…”
2023 (Dimon): "The only use case for it is crime..."
2023 (analyst): “Store of value thesis will see BTC price double post-halving.”
2025 May (Dimon): "It's not digital gold, but I guess we’ll let you buy it. Go at it.”
Last week (analyst): “Bitcoin could reach $165K based on gold’s record run.”
As Chris sums up, “JPMorgan’s Bitcoin stance is basically: Dad hates it, but Mom started a secret stash in the attic years ago.”
More institutional acceptance: Standard & Poor’s just announced it’s launching a new crypto index.
The S&P Digital Markets 50 will comprise 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 stocks tied to crypto.
“Historically,” Chris observes, “once assets become benchmarked, institutional inflows multiply. (ETFs give capital access. Indexes give capital permission.)”
No, S&P has not yet said which cryptos and stocks will go into the index. But Chris will engage in some informed speculation — and suss out some of the biggest potential winners — in today’s issue of our sister e-letter Altucher Confidential. Watch your inbox.
[Editor’s note: As with Enrique’s gold observations, Chris’ crypto insights today come courtesy of the “daily feed” section of the Paradigm Press mobile app. The app is ready for download right now from both Apple’s App Store and Google’s Play Store. Enjoy!]
Comic Relief, Shutdown Edition
Here’s a double dose of shutdown memory today…
Well yes, but TSA employees are working without pay until the shutdown is over, at which time they’ll get back pay.
So far there are few reports of TSA employees calling in “sick”… but it’s a different story for air traffic controllers.
“Twelve Federal Aviation Administration facilities saw staffing shortages Monday night,” says CNN. “The control towers in Burbank, Phoenix and Denver had so-called ‘staffing triggers’ reported in the public FAA operations plan. Other facilities that handle air traffic around airports in Newark, New Jersey; Jacksonville, Florida; Chicago; Washington, D.C.; and Indianapolis also were short staffed.”
This is no small consideration for the hundreds of our readers making their way to Nashville for the 2025 Paradigm Shift Summit starting Thursday.
To say nothing of the Paradigm editors who expect to appear on stage! Fingers crossed…
(If you’re not joining our team in Nashville, look for conference highlights here in 5 Bullets starting Friday.)
Mailbag: Maxwell Apartment, Dollar Coins
“OMG, do large companies no longer do any research in their marketing?” a reader writes in response to our item about Maxwell House downsizing to “Maxwell Apartment.”
“Or do these marketing departments just charge forward with major rebrandings, come hell or high water? Has wokeness overtaken sane thinking?
“Remember Cracker Barrel, you dummies…”
On the subject of dollar coins, broached in yesterday’s edition, a member of our Omega Wealth Circle writes…
“I live in Ecuador, which dollarized its economy in 2000, after they blew up their local currency.
“Here it is largely a cash economy, and dollar coins are in wide circulation, to the point that rarely do you see a $1 bill, and whenever anyone gets one, they try to spend it ASAP.
“I have (just checked) four dollar coins in my pocket right now, and several rolls more on the shelf as these are spent. Even down here, where a dollar goes further than in the U.S., it just feels right that it is pocket change and I only reach for my wallet for bills if $5 and up.”
Dave responds: Depending on who you want to believe, the reason dollar coins haven’t caught on stateside is that $1 bills remain in circulation.
Which I suppose makes sense. When I lived in Buffalo during the late 1990s I’d visit Ontario every so often to go hiking. Canada did away with $1 bills a few years earlier. I rather enjoyed the $1 coin (the “loonie”) and the $2 coin (the “toonie”).
Of course, that was a time when electronic payments were less common… and fiat currency went further than it does now!
(Oh, and you didn’t need a passport to cross between Canada and the United States, either…)
Best regards,
Dave Gonigam
Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
