SpaceX’s Excellent Timing
On Further Consideration…
OK, even a hardened cynic ought to be impressed with this…
Yesterday SpaceX conducted a successful fifth test flight of its Starship at Boca Chica, Texas — and an engineering first.
“Rather than have the booster land in the ocean, as is typical,” reports the BBC, “SpaceX managed to slow it from speeds in excess of 17,000 mph (27,350 km/h), guide it gently back to the launchpad and catch it in a pair of giant mechanical arms.”
Yes, a reusable booster. That’s a major cost savings when it comes to space exploration.
For SpaceX founder Elon Musk, the booster capture was a welcome opportunity to change the subject from the indifferent if not hostile reaction he got to his Cybercab event Thursday night.
The media was unimpressed — “heavy on showbiz but light on business” said The Wall Street Journal — and shares of Tesla took an 8.8% spill the next day.
But was the Cybercab event really the dud the corporate media made it out to be?
During the 2010s, Musk would frequently put on events with far less substance — and the media oohed and aahed.
But that was before Musk’s falling-out with the rest of the power elite. From the moment in May 2020 that he kept Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California open in defiance of Alameda County’s lockdown orders… nearly every new Musk reveal has gotten the media’s side-eye.
“The We, Robot event wasn't just about unveiling new products,” ventures Paradigm’s tech-investing authority Ray Blanco.
Musk, says Ray, “also painted a picture of a world transformed by autonomous technology.
“Musk’s vision is for a world so exciting that he wishes he could be there now. He spoke of turning parking lots into parks, of creating space in our cities. He painted a picture of an age of abundance, where AI leads to plummeting costs for products and services.
“It's a future where the pain of transport — the hours lost to traffic, the frustration of rush hour — becomes a thing of the past.
“At the heart of this revolution is the Cybercab, a vehicle that embodies the essence of autonomous transport,” Ray goes on.
“With no steering wheel or pedals, it's a bold statement about the future of mobility.”
The Cybercab brings new meaning to “Look Ma, no hands!” [Tesla photo]
“Musk also expects it to cost under $30,000,” Ray adds.
“But he isn't content to wait until 2026 when the Cybercab is slated for production. He's pushing for unsupervised self-driving in Tesla's Model 3 and Y as early as next year in Texas and California.
“It's an ambitious timeline, but one that speaks to the rapid pace of innovation in this space.”
And it wasn’t just the cybercab: There was also a Robovan, an autonomous vehicle carrying up to 20 people at a time… and a humanoid robot called Optimus. Costing as little as $20,000, Musk intends for Optimus to become as common as iPhones.
Yes, there will be obstacles along the way: “Achieving unsupervised self-driving by next year is an ambitious goal that may face regulatory scrutiny,” Ray allows. “Competition in the autonomous vehicle and AI chip space is fierce.
“Plus, Tesla's history of ambitious timelines suggests that some features may take longer to materialize than stated, something Musk hinted at himself during his presentation.
“But I have little doubt about the direction we’re heading in. AI is the future of transportation and beyond.”
Rocket Launches and Social Media Posts
Speaking of Musk and his continued falling-out with the power elite…
“SpaceX’s plans to launch more rockets from the California coast were rejected by a state commission,” reports the Los Angeles Times — “with some officials citing Elon Musk’s political posts on X and raising concerns about the billionaire’s labor record at his companies.
“The plan to increase the number of rocket blasts into space up to 50 a year was rejected by the California Coastal Commission on Thursday despite assurances from Space Force and Air Force officials that they would increase efforts to monitor the effects that rocket launches have on nearby wildlife.”
As the name implies, the California Coastal Commission’s remit has to do with the environmental impact of business activity. It has nothing to do with the social media posts of business owners.
The good folks at FIRE — the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression — have risen to Musk’s defense: “The First Amendment forbids government agencies from leveraging regulatory power to stifle protected speech,” FIRE says in a post on X.
“That was true when Florida’s government punished Disney for opposing Gov. Ron DeSantis’s education policies, it was true when a New York agency leaned on insurance companies to cut ties with the NRA because of its political advocacy and it’s true here.
“No matter the politics at issue, regulatory oversight isn’t a blank check for censorship.”
God bless the people at FIRE. They’re among the very few left who put principle above politics.
In the meantime, look for SpaceX to carry out a lot more of its launches from Texas — like the one yesterday.
U.S. Troops as a Trip Wire
Oil begins a new week down nearly 2%: For the moment, Mr. Market’s attitude toward the Middle East is Wake me up when something happens.
Yesterday the Pentagon announced it will deploy a THAAD anti-missile battery to Israel — the acronym standing for “Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense.” CNN reports that about 100 U.S. troops will be deployed to operate the system.
The decision comes as Washington and Tel Aviv continue to coordinate plans for an Israeli attack on Iran.
On the surface, it’s a baffling decision: “What would be the purpose of US personnel operating an extremely expensive system which Israel already possesses, and which Iran apparently foiled in its latest retaliatory attack?” tweets the independent journalist Max Blumenthal.
“It seems the Biden admin is on the verge of turning U.S. troops into human shields for Israel, exploiting their presence to prevent Iran from striking near their strategically significant locations, as it seeks to limit direct U.S. involvement in the conflict.
“American soldiers therefore become human trip wires as well, as any U.S. casualties would trigger calls in Washington for an all-out U.S. war on Iran. And that is precisely what [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu has been angling for since he returned to the PM’s office 15 years ago.”
Or are U.S. casualties the aim for Washington as well?
Says Daniel McAdams at the Ron Paul Institute: “It appears certain that President Biden and his neocon-dominated foreign policy team are setting up U.S. military members to be killed in Israel to manufacture consent for a full-on U.S. war against all of Israel's enemies in the region.”
But none of that is priced into a barrel of West Texas intermediate this morning — down $1.69 to $73.87.
Economic Numbers: Just So Much Background Noise
For the next few months, major economic numbers like inflation and unemployment will matter less to the stock market than before.
That’s the assessment of Enrique Abeyta — former hedge fund bigwig and the newest member of the Paradigm team.
“For the last two or three years,” Enrique writes in our new Truth & Trends e-letter, “macroeconomic data has driven volatility and the direction of the stock market overall.”
But a funny thing happened last Thursday with a “hotter than expected” inflation number. “The S&P 500 fell 0.21% while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.05%.
“There may have been a few market-moving reports in the last six months, but the price volatility of the stock market around these reports has been dying down this year.”
Here’s the thing: “This is completely normal,” says Enrique.
“The stock market and economy go through periods where macroeconomic data plays a major role in the outcome. This is the exception, though, and not the rule.”
The bulk of the time, Enrique says what matters is good ol’ prices and earnings.
One of his favorite sayings is that PRICE = TRUTH. “There are well-defined technical setups that can make you money with in any type of market,” he says. “When the market isn’t being thrown around by macroeconomic data, then they work even better. I believe we’re entering that kind of bull market/melt-up period right now.”
As for earnings, we’re entering earnings season right now: “If companies continue to increase earnings, beat expectations and raise estimates, then the stock market will go higher.
Maybe by a lot, or maybe only a little. Maybe now, or maybe later. But if earnings go up, the market will go higher.”
Enrique’s conclusion: “If we are entering a period when macroeconomic data is less important, then it will also be good for fundamental strategies based on earnings.
“You can focus on finding companies growing and beating numbers. And stop worrying about a 0.01% ‘miss’ on an inflation or GDP number.”
Not that we’ll ignore the numbers in this space. Just know that going forward they’ll matter less to the market’s day-to-day action…
As for today’s action, it’s all green for the major U.S. indexes. The Dow and S&P 500 are powering still higher into record territory… while at 18,480 the Nasdaq is less than 1% away from reclaiming its July 10 record close.
Precious metals are losing ground — but gold is still well above $2,600 and silver’s holding the line on $31. Bitcoin is about to break through the $66,000 barrier for the first time this month.
Yes, the markets are open on Columbus Day. This is one of only two days a year that the stock market is open while many banks and all post offices are closed. The other is Veterans Day next month.
Breaking up Is Hard to Do, AI Edition
The future of breakups is here and it looks like this…
That’s an AI-generated summary of text messages sent last week by the girlfriend — well, ex-girlfriend — of a New York-based software developer named Nick Spreen.
Spreen has been running a beta version of iOS on his iPhone in recent weeks — featuring a souped-up version of Apple Intelligence that will soon be part of iOS 18.1. (For us non-beta testers, the current version is 18.0.1.)
In the new release, the AI assistant will helpfully summarize a string of texts for you — even if the texts have to do with something as sensitive as breaking off a relationship.
Spreen posted the screengrab on his X account. Asked if it was real, he confirmed it was. And it happened on his birthday, no less.
"I do feel like it added a level of distance to it that wasn’t a bad thing," Spreen says in an interview with Ars Technica. "Maybe a bit like a personal assistant who stays professional and has your back even in the most awful situations.”
Then he added: “But yeah, more than anything it felt unreal and dystopian."
Ars Technica writer Benj Edwards speculates the day might come when you can ask an AI to compose a series of breakup texts on your behalf. (Sounds plausible if AI can already generate term papers, right?)
And then… the recipient can get an AI summary of your AI-generated breakup texts.
And it’s at that point your editor fully embraces the late Douglas Adams’ description of how those of us over age 35 approach technology…
Best regards,
Dave Gonigam
Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
