Survey Says: Freedom and Opportunity

Survey Says: Freedom and Opportunity

“My parents brought us here in 1967 to achieve the American dream — and they did, and so did their four children,” writes a Paradigm Press subscriber who hails from New Jersey.

“I am truly proud and my children also live the American dream and also my eight nephews — truly proud to be an American.”

Ahead of the nation’s 250th anniversary this weekend, we invited you during yesterday’s edition to tell us what part of the country you come from and what makes you most proud to be an American.

Our own invite here was supplemented by separate invites from Paradigm macro maven Jim Rickards, AI authority James Altucher and publisher Matt Insley. All told we got over 5,200 responses. 

To be sure, I’ve not had a chance to go over all of them. I did, however, copy and paste them into ChatGPT and asked for an executive summary.

“Across hundreds of responses, one theme overwhelmingly dominates: Freedom is the defining source of American pride,” is the chatbot’s main takeaway.

“Respondents repeatedly cited freedom — not just as an abstract ideal, but as the foundation for nearly every other aspect of American life they value. Freedom of speech, religion, opportunity, movement, enterprise, and self-determination appeared far more frequently than any other theme.”

Some of them simply responded, “Freedom.” Others specified the freedom of speech, free exercise of one’s religion, the absence of tyranny or the ability to choose one’s own path.

Says a California reader: “Freedom. Freedom of speech, expression and religion. That the powers bestowed to us are not granted by the government, but from God.” Right on.

“A second major theme was opportunity,” ChatGPT continues.

“Many described America as ‘the land of opportunity’ where effort — not birth — determines success.”

“I’m proud of the fact that everyone, including me, has the opportunity to decide how they'd like to succeed in life,” says a respondent from upstate New York. “I changed my mind numerous times over my lifetime and every time I was rewarded with multiple opportunities as well as wonderful teachers to help me along my path.”

Beyond freedom and opportunity, many respondents invoked their faith. Others, military service. 

Some people chose to get political — inevitable given the tenor of the times, I guess. We’ll skip over those ones on this occasion.

We give the last word today to someone from the Philadelphia area — where this week in 1776 Thomas Jefferson submitted his draft of the Declaration of Independence to the Continental Congress…

We celebrate the Fourth of July not because it was the founding of our form of government. That happened in 1789 with the ratification and implementation of the Constitution.

No, we celebrate July Fourth because it was a seminal moment in the history of the world. Yes we declared our independence as a sovereign nation, but it was an announcement to the world of a new form of sovereignty. The revolution of sovereignty of the individual over the sovereignty of the state. The first time any such form of government was to be attempted.

Make no mistake, there have been many other revolutions throughout history. But none was as significant as this.

For the first time men had stated that rights which previous had been the dominion of a king or emperor come from something greater. Something that supersedes the bonds of servitude to the whims of an all-powerful ruler. That those rights are unalienable.

That a man was free to exercise his will the way he felt best for himself. As long as his will was, as Thomas Jefferson wrote, “within limits drawn around us by the equal rights of others.”

Is the document perfect? No. But it set in motion the seeds to create a more perfect union of men. And continues to do so.

So when you hear those words you've heard so many times before, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,” remember that when they were written it was not so self-evident.

Hear, hear. Thanks to everyone for their submissions.

Takeover Announcement Now, Bidding War Later?

The big takeover news of the week is something the Paradigm team spotted in advance.

One of the trendy space names — Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB) — is acquiring industry workhorse Iridium Communications (IRDM).

Only seven days ago, subscribers of Altucher’s True Alpha learned that IRDM was looking like buyout bait — given a sudden bout of buying by institutional investors. This is the “blue spike” that True Alpha readers know is their signal to act…

Sure enough, word broke before the market opened Monday morning — a recurring “weekend trade” phenomenon True Alpha readers seize on for big gains.

The background: Iridium owns 66 low-Earth orbit satellites, along with access to a slice of the radio frequency spectrum used for satellite phones and similar technology. (If you have one of Garmin’s high-end devices for hiking in the backwoods, it relies on Iridium satellites.) 

The company’s satellites and frequencies are also used by the U.S. military. That’s what makes IRDM a juicy takeover target.

Rocket Lab could have tried to build its own satellite network. But it was easier to acquire an existing one that already generates a profit. RKLB now has the whole satellite “stack” — building them, launching them and operating them.

Well, that’s assuming the deal goes through.

Altucher’s True Alpha strategist Zach Scheidt thinks IRDM could become the object of a bidding war. Zach and James Altucher recommended IRDM call options last week — and they’re urging readers to continue hanging onto them until the story fully plays out. 

The broad stock market is drifting higher again today amid a low-volume trading week.

The S&P 500 is up nearly three-quarters of a percent, knocking on the door of 7,500 for the first time since mid-June. The Nasdaq’s gain is stronger, the Dow’s weaker.

Among the big movers is military drone maker AeroVironment (AVAV) — up over 15% after delivering killer quarterly numbers. 

Several Paradigm editors have been perking up to the drone story in recent days. In both the Russia-Ukraine war and in the Persian Gulf, “relatively inexpensive drones are proving capable of threatening or destroying assets that cost hundreds or even thousands of times more,” says trading pro Enrique Abeyta. “That shift has enormous implications, not just for military planners, but for investors as well.”

To explore the possibilities of drones in detail, check out Davis Wilson at The Million Mission and Adam Sharp at The Daily Reckoning.

Elsewhere, gold is holding its own at $4,027 while silver’s up over a buck to $59.55. Bitcoin looks as if it wants to break below $58,000 — which would be the lowest since September 2024.

The Hormuz Disconnect

“Markets have responded to the idea that Hormuz is reopening. They have not fully priced the question of on what terms,” says Mason Sexton, editor of The Map.

Sorry if you think we’re beating a dead horse here. But the distinction matters. Washington and Tehran can’t even agree on whether they’re holding talks today — much less how the Strait of Hormuz is going to operate in a postwar world.

“The market has priced ‘reopening’ as if it means immediate normalization,” Mr. Sexton wrote his readers yesterday. 

“The more likely outcome is a new normal defined by higher costs, slower flows and persistent political uncertainty. That uncertainty is not incidental. It is central to Iran’s leverage. 

“Washington appears to expect toll-free reopening and a return to normal. Iran, by contrast, has signaled that the strait will not return to its prewar administrative status.”

Indeed, Tehran has set up a Persian Gulf Strait Authority — which will oversee insurance requirements for ships, and presumably a toll of one sort or another.

“A strait that is technically open but subject to Iranian-administered fees, insurance approvals, selective delays and renewed political bargaining is not equivalent to the prewar strait. It is entirely possible that Iran allows outbound crude to move while restricting or slowing inbound traffic as a means of extracting further concessions.

“This creates a problem for oil markets because the buffers that suppressed prices during the past several months cannot continue indefinitely,” Mason warns.

“Commercial inventories have been drawn down. Strategic reserves have been tapped. China has reduced imports, helping dampen price pressure. 

“But these are temporary cushions, not durable solutions. If China returns to the market, if negotiations stall or if Hormuz traffic remains materially below prewar levels, the relief trade in crude could reverse quickly.”

For the moment, however, U.S. crude futures continue to hover just over $70 a barrel — more or less where they were on day four of the war in early March.

And while oil and gasoline futures usually move in tandem, that’s not been the case in recent days. Gasoline futures are rising, much to Donald Trump’s consternation.

Trump is learning that his people can jack around with U.S. oil futures… but that doesn’t lower the costs of producing and refining physical barrels.

This is the second time in less than a week that Trump has hit out at fuel retailers for “high” prices. Your editor has a small position in the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK)... but I’m starting to wonder if the political risk is too much to bear. Nixon-era price controls and gas lines, anyone?

Comic Relief (and Some Aging Statistics)

Timely thought for the day…

Which got your editor to wondering….

Seems it’s been several years since the Tax Foundation undertook a comprehensive survey of fireworks taxes among the 50 states.

But as of 2019, six states imposed statewide excise taxes on fireworks sales — on top of existing sales taxes. They ranged from 2% in Texas to 12% in Pennsylvania and West Virginia — with Georgia, Indiana and Michigan falling in between. 

Mailbag: Lisa Cook, Politicians’ Love

“I know that people are saying Fed governor Lisa Cook can’t be fired because of the Supreme Court decision. Not true,” a reader writes. 

“All it did was deny a government-requested stay of a preliminary injunction preventing her removal. The decision was narrow — Cook is entitled to due process by statute. 

“Now, in the companion case, Slaughter, the court found the executive could fire any member of the executive branch.

“So after all the more litigation and charges against Cook that may come in further proceedings, the court may then reach the question of whether the executive can dismiss a Fed governor for ‘cause’ or if the Fed is ‘special.’ Under Slaughter, the executive possibly could fire Cook after affording the due process relied on in today’s decision. 

“I’ll admit, they seem to presage less of an ability to fire a Fed governor due to the Fed’s special nature and history on monetary policies. But it’s still an open question.”

Dave responds: Perhaps I was careless with my brief mention yesterday. Thank you for parsing the nuances — which I glossed over because to me it’s more important to abolish the Fed than to quibble over who has hiring and firing authority. Heh…

One of our longtimers chose to weigh in on our American Pride survey via the mailbag rather than the survey form…

“Dave, our planet has some rather remarkable lands and people. None more so than the land we call America and the people we call Americans.

“(Now, if only our Pols would love us back.)”

Dave: We don’t need the love of our politicians. Just their respect for our inalienable rights…