<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" /> Not Since COVID Has This Happened
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It doesn&rsquo;t show up on Bloomberg&rsquo;s homepage or the front page of The Wall Street Journal. But the signs are everywhere, beneath the surface.
Whether it&rsquo;s tariff uncertainty or a recession that&rsquo;s been brewing for months or both&hellip; the movement of goods cross-border is slowing dramatically.
Result: Trucking activity at the hubs that process goods from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has slowed to pandemic-era levels.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5mJn8DxJoA9lU9xfutXojx/429fb6709afe02b549a1e4e4b7145328/Craig.png" alt="craig tweet" width="540px" />
Or consider this: Effective today, DHL has suspended all shipments of goods worth over $800 to U.S. consumers &ldquo;until further notice.&rdquo;
This one is definitely tariff-related. The company cites a &ldquo;significant increase&rdquo; in red tape at U.S Customs.
Business-to-business shipments will carry on, &ldquo;though they may also face delays.&rdquo;
What changed? Since April 5, goods worth over $800 have been subject to additional processing at customs; previously the threshold was $2,500.
The company says the change &ldquo;has caused a surge in formal customs clearances, which we are handling around the clock.&rdquo;
Again, none of this is front-page stuff &mdash; yet. But we figured it was worth a heads-up.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;What if I told you I know exactly how Trump&rsquo;s tariffs are going to play out?&rdquo; asks Paradigm&rsquo;s AI-and-crypto authority James Altucher.
&ldquo;The exact stocks that will crumble&hellip; and the exact ones that will lead the market higher.&rdquo;
Bold claim, we know. But this week, &ldquo;a single market event (one that&rsquo;s 100% guaranteed to happen) could send a massive shock through the market,&rdquo; he says.
&ldquo;Bigger than anything we have seen so far this year. If I&rsquo;m right, this will be a transformative moneymaking moment.&rdquo;
We&rsquo;re talking about the potential for life-changing wealth when most people have no idea what to expect next. &ldquo;And I do not want you to be left behind,&rdquo; says James.
Again, we&rsquo;re talking about something that&rsquo;s going down this week, guaranteed. If you don&rsquo;t want to miss out, <a href="https://signups.dailyreckoning.com/2433422">follow this link and James will start to clue you in on what he calls 2025&rsquo;s Ultimate Money Move</a>.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Weaker Dollar &mdash; Just As Trump Wants It
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;History shows that when the dollar is too strong, the U.S. will set out to weaken it,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s macroeconomics maven Jim Rickards.
Jim spent much of last week in Japan to &mdash; among other things &mdash; deliver a keynote speech at a private investors conference about the role of gold in the global monetary system.
Over the years Japan&rsquo;s currency, the yen, has gone through many ups and downs relative to the dollar. Right now, Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar &mdash; in hopes of making U.S. exports more affordable for foreigners, including the Japanese.
For all the turmoil in the stock and bond markets since Trump&rsquo;s big tariff announcement on April 2, the dollar is doing what Trump wants. The U.S. dollar index, measuring the dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the yen &mdash; has sunk from 104.25 to 98.27.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;History shows that the Japanese are willing to accommodate such efforts at dollar devaluation for a variety of reasons,&rdquo; Jim says &mdash; &ldquo;which include geopolitical considerations as much as economic ones.&rdquo;
While Jim was in Japan last week, Japanese officials ventured to the White House to see if they could strike a deal after Trump&rsquo;s &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; announcement.
No deal yet, but as Jim sees it, &ldquo;they will not object to plans to revalue the yen against the U.S. dollar.&rdquo;
This week, Jim is headed to Jekyll Island, Georgia &mdash; birthplace of the Federal Reserve &mdash; for a comprehensive debriefing with his research team. And you&rsquo;ll have the chance to be a fly on the wall.
We&rsquo;re hosting an exclusive livestream event this coming Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
The Final Secret of Jekyll Island, this event is called. It&rsquo;ll cover everything you ever wanted to know about how the markets got here so far in 2025&hellip; and where they&rsquo;re going for the rest of the year.
We won&rsquo;t try to sell you one of Jim&rsquo;s premium services during this event; this is strictly for your enlightenment.
We&rsquo;ll email you a link to the livestream shortly before we get underway Wednesday afternoon. In the meantime, <a href="https://paradigmpressgroup.com/jekyll-island-2025">you can review the agenda at this link</a>.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Who&rsquo;s Afraid of a Google Breakup?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;If Meta or Alphabet get broken up by regulators, it&rsquo;s not the end of the world,&rdquo; writes Davis Wilson at our sister e-letter The Million Mission.
A week ago today, the Federal Trade Commission&rsquo;s antitrust case against Facebook parent Meta went to trial &mdash; Mark Zuckerberg&rsquo;s attempts to ingratiate himself with the Trump administration coming to naught.
Then on Thursday, a federal judge labeled Google an illegal monopolist when it comes to online advertising &mdash; the second time that&rsquo;s happened in eight months.
Both cases might well end with the firms forced to spin off or divest core businesses. &ldquo;While nothing is imminent,&rdquo; says Davis, &ldquo;the potential is real, and investors need to start thinking about the upside.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> You read that right. Upside.
&ldquo;If Meta or Alphabet were forced to divest Instagram, WhatsApp, YouTube or parts of their ad businesses, here&rsquo;s what would likely happen,&rdquo; says Davis&hellip;
&ldquo;Shareholders wouldn&rsquo;t lose value. They&rsquo;d receive shares in the new entities. Just like a stock split or spinoff, existing shareholders would retain ownership in each piece of the business.
&ldquo;The total value of your investment would initially stay the same.
&ldquo;For example, if Meta is worth $500 per share and Instagram is spun off as a $100 per share entity, Meta&rsquo;s stock might drop to $400. But you now own both Meta ($400) and Instagram ($100). You haven&rsquo;t lost value&hellip; it&rsquo;s just split.
&ldquo;Same with Alphabet. If it spun off YouTube or its ad exchange business, shareholders would receive stakes in those standalone companies.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;And here&rsquo;s the kicker: Breakups often unlock value,&rdquo; Davis adds.
Case in point: eBay spinning off PayPal a decade ago. &ldquo;At the time, analysts thought the standalone PayPal would struggle. Instead, it crushed expectations and more than doubled in the years that followed.&rdquo;
Or if you want to go way back in technological history, how about the breakup of AT&amp;T in the 1980s? &ldquo;It created multiple &lsquo;Baby Bells,&rsquo;&rdquo; Davis reminds us &mdash; &ldquo;and long-term investors made a killing as each company found its own way to grow.&rdquo;
Back in the present, Davis is keen on the prospects of both Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOG).
&ldquo;Their core businesses are growing,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;They dominate their respective markets. And they&rsquo;re pouring money into AI and next-gen technologies.&rdquo;
And the breakup risk? &ldquo;To me, it&rsquo;s not really a risk. It&rsquo;s a potential reward.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> In the meantime, the fear trade is back in play today &ndash; stocks down, gold up.
Gold has roared another 2.5% higher, over $3,400 for the first time. Silver&rsquo;s up too, but not nearly as much &ndash; less than 1% to $32.81.
The S&amp;P 500 is down over 2% to 5,169. That&rsquo;s still better than the April 8 low under 5,000 &ndash; but right now the index is on track for its fourth-straight losing session. The losses in the Dow are over 2% and the Nasdaq nearly 3%.
Crude is selling off in sympathy with stocks, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate down 2.7% and back below $63.
Bonds are selling off, though not as much as stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.36%.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />&ldquo;A Tool for Control of Americans&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And now a 5 Bullets business travel alert: It took the better part of 20 years, but the &ldquo;Real ID&rdquo; requirements to board an airplane are about to come into force.
When last we visited the matter in late 2022, the feds had once again pushed back the enforcement deadline of the Real ID Act &mdash; a post-9/11 law requiring that you have a driver&rsquo;s license or other form of ID compliant with the law&rsquo;s requirements to board a domestic flight.
That is, the photo must be compatible with facial-recognition software and the feds must be allowed access to state driver&rsquo;s license databases.
The first deadline to comply was 2008. In all, the deadline was pushed back seven times. It wasn&rsquo;t until 2020 that all 50 states began issuing compliant IDs.
In December 2022, the feds set a deadline of May 7, 2025 &mdash; about 2&frac12; weeks from now.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It appears this time, the deadline will stick &mdash; a de facto national ID card being ushered in by the supposedly pro-freedom Trump administration.
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem made it official a few days ago&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2Rv5FFEnv1YYr4dZBhvkJ5/8a91830e78cae6a21457dc4efa1b6334/Eric.png" alt="eric tweet" width="540px" />
Noem is a real piece of work, roasted on social media as &ldquo;Commando Barbie&rdquo; for foolish photo ops in which she displays a wanton disregard for NRA gun-safety rules (&ldquo;Always keep the gun pointed in a safe direction&rdquo;)...
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4FUfu8l5wPVlcGTQTISIrS/86b0a2740cb8a30725eda5ec2094b065/Kristi.png" alt="kristi tweet" width="540px" />
&hellip; because it&rsquo;s more important that she cultivate her &ldquo;badass MILF&rdquo; chic.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Real ID isn&rsquo;t needed and won&rsquo;t stop terrorists from hijacking planes,&rdquo; tweets Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky.)
&ldquo;Most of the 9/11 hijackers held Saudi, UAE, Egyptian or Lebanese passports. Real ID is a national standard and database of IDs that is primarily a tool for control of Americans.&rdquo;
Perhaps it could be worse: &ldquo;Section 202 of the Real ID Act (which was written by the sponsor of the Patriot Act) gives unfettered discretion to the secretary of Homeland Security to require ANYTHING as a condition for you to get a driver&rsquo;s license,&rdquo; tweets Kentucky State Rep. T.J. Roberts.
&ldquo;Imagine if Kamala Harris won. She surely would have reappointed [Alejandro] Mayorkas. He surely would have required you disclose your political affiliations, the church you attend, your biometric data or any other thing you&rsquo;d prefer to keep private.&rdquo;
Anyway, it looks as if the deadline&rsquo;s gonna stick this time &mdash; May 7.
<blockquote>➢ It pains me to write about this knowing that Saturday was not only Patriots&rsquo; Day but indeed the 250th anniversary of Lexington and Concord and &ldquo;the shot heard round the world.&rdquo; What would Paul Revere think?</blockquote>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Yes, It&rsquo;s More Than Tariffs
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Dave, I agree,&rdquo; a reader writes after our most recent assessment of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/nothing-normal-about-this">the tumult in the bond market</a>.
&ldquo;While Trump gleefully demolishes trust in America, relying on that calamitous factor alone is an oversimplification of why international actors are selling off U.S. treasuries. Our elected representatives have mismanaged the federal budget for decades. It's more than not understanding math; they don't care. Have you ever considered why?
&ldquo;The ballooning federal debt isn't just a symptom of fiscal irresponsibility; it's a calculated tool enabling the well-connected to privatize gains and socialize losses. Do you think Trump and his cabal of cronies are going to get their snouts out of the trough? That's not going to happen.
&ldquo;Each round of deficit spending pumps billions into private hands &mdash; contracts, subsidies, bailouts &mdash; all benefiting the powerful insiders. Remember the parade of corporate elites kissing the ring and paying tribute after the king's coronation? Corporate and government parasites deftly convert public funds into private assets, effectively laundering taxpayer money into personal wealth. Meanwhile, we peasants are left footing an ever-increasing bill.
&ldquo;This gravy train persists &mdash; and the debt grows &mdash; precisely because those who benefit most want it to. Trump and his puppets in Congress show no genuine interest in reducing debt because they and their key patrons &mdash; the wealthiest Americans &mdash; are profiting immensely from the status quo. Why do you think Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer sided with the Republicans and their spend-a-palooza continuing resolution?
&ldquo;Until we confront the fundamental issue &mdash; the concentration of wealth and power &mdash; any discussion of debt reduction remains merely rhetorical. So I expect I'll continue to see more.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Well said. And if it&rsquo;s specific targets you&rsquo;re looking for&hellip; nothing changes until <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/luigi-mangione-isnt-the-problem">the health care cartel</a> is smashed and <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/a-totalitarian-bureaucracy-within-our-shores">the military-industrial complex</a> is brought to heel.
I&rsquo;m not holding my breath.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

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Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Whether it’s tariff uncertainty or a recession that’s been brewing for months or both… the movement of goods cross-border is slowing dramatically.

Not Since COVID Has This Happened

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" /> What If &ldquo;Command&rdquo; Currencies Collapse?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In a world where fiat currencies face increasing pressure, Paradigm&rsquo;s macro authority Jim Rickards has consistently emphasized the importance of gold. And his latest gold forecast is nothing short of jaw-dropping&hellip;
But before we get to that, Jim&rsquo;s prediction is not based on speculation; instead, it&rsquo;s the result of detailed modeling and historical precedents.
First, Jim explains that during financial crises, gold prices often follow a predictable pattern. Initially, the price of gold drops alongside stocks as investors liquidate assets to cover margin calls or meet liquidity needs.
&ldquo;You sell what you can,&rdquo; Jim notes, highlighting the panic-driven behavior that dominates markets during such times.
However, this initial sell-off is typically followed by a sharp rebound as &ldquo;strong hands&rdquo; step in to buy gold at discounted prices.
It&rsquo;s important to point out that even if stocks moderate this week &mdash; providing some relief from recent downturns &mdash; Jim&rsquo;s fundamental thesis supporting gold&rsquo;s rise remains unchanged.
And as you&rsquo;ll see below, Jim has evidence that this cycle is playing out as we speak&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;What if confidence in command currencies collapses due to some combination of excessive money creation, extreme levels of dollar debt, a new financial crisis, war or natural disaster?&rdquo; Jim posits.
If confidence in fiat currencies collapses, central banks may have no choice, he says, but to return to a gold standard.
In such a scenario, the &ldquo;implied non-deflationary price of gold&rdquo; would need to be recalibrated to maintain equilibrium between gold reserves and the money supply.
To wit, M1 is the most liquid part of the U.S. money supply, meaning it&rsquo;s the easiest to convert into cash.
It includes physical cash (bills and coins), bank reserves held in vaults and deposits like checking accounts.
Currently, the U.S. M1 money supply totals $17.9 trillion.
As for gold, &ldquo;the U.S. Treasury reserves [total] 8,100 metric tonnes (261.5 million troy ounces),&rdquo; says Jim.
If the government were to return to a gold standard today, according to Federal Reserve rules from 1913&ndash;1946, the legal requirement would be that 40% of M1 money supply be backed by gold.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> All to say, $7.2 trillion worth of gold would be necessary. &ldquo;Applying the $7.2 trillion valuation to 261.5 million troy ounces yields a gold price of $27,533 per ounce,&rdquo; Jim notes.
Although no forecast is guaranteed, Jim believes this scenario is well within the realm of possibility given current macroeconomic trends. &ldquo;This isn&rsquo;t a guess,&rdquo; he adds.
Beyond the Fed&rsquo;s 20th Century model, Jim highlights real-world factors driving gold prices higher.
<ul>
<li>On the supply side, global gold production has been declining steadily since 2017, with miners struggling to find high-quality ore deposits. This stagnation in supply creates upward pressure on prices when demand increases</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>On the demand side, central banks have been significant buyers of gold, with purchases surging by 1,000% between 2010&ndash;2022. This trend shows no signs of slowing down; central banks acquired 800 metric tonnes of gold in 2023 alone. Jim notes that much of this demand stems from concerns about the stability of fiat currencies as well as geopolitical risks.</li>
</ul>
For individual investors, Jim&rsquo;s advice is straightforward: act now. Gold&rsquo;s price trajectory follows an exponential pattern where percentage gains become easier as the base price rises.
For instance, moving from $2,000 to $3,000 per ounce represents a 50% gain, but moving from $14,000 to $15,000 per ounce is only a 7% increase.
&ldquo;Those $1,000 pops get even easier as we approach my calculated gold price of $27,533,&rdquo; he explains.
The implication is clear: gold buyers today stand to benefit most as they accumulate more gold at lower prices and enjoy higher percentage returns during the early stages of a rally.
Jim&rsquo;s analysis paints a compelling picture for gold&rsquo;s future. For investors, the message is clear: moments of market panic often present opportunities to buy gold before the price resumes its upward trajectory.
Whether driven by geopolitical crises or fundamental supply-demand dynamics, gold remains an essential asset for preserving wealth during uncertain times.

As Jim summarizes: &ldquo;Get your gold while you can.&rdquo;
[You have an unclaimed package from Jim Rickards: It&rsquo;s valued at $400 and waiting for you&hellip; but supplies are limited and may soon run out.
To secure your package &mdash; an assortment of items Jim has hand-selected to protect you from the all-out financial trade war &mdash; <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2432692">watch this short video message for instructions.</a>
And submit your claim before the deadline at 11:59 p.m. EDT on FRIDAY. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2432692">Act quickly,</a> or you may lose this exclusive offer for good.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Be Careful What You Wish For
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jay Powell hinted at no further rate cuts. 
Conversely, President Trump has been pounding the table (via social media), demanding rate cuts &mdash; on the assumption that once the Fed cuts short-term rates, long-term rates will follow in sympathy.
But as we mentioned in December and January, the Fed did three cuts last fall and long-term rates ROSE &mdash; something that hadn&rsquo;t happened in 40 years &mdash; likely because the bond market sniffed out that federal spending and the national debt were spiraling out of control.
And here we are again this month, with long-term rates rising at a time they &ldquo;should&rdquo; be falling. Here&rsquo;s the thing: Trump is wishing for something that won&rsquo;t necessarily get him what he wants.
Also not getting what it wants? Wall Street&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Taking a look at stocks today, the Big Board is down 1.10% to 39,225. But the tech-heavy Nasdaq is only slightly in the red, down 0.10%,and clawing its way to 16,285. Meanwhile, the only major U.S. index in the green, the S&amp;P 500, is up 0.35% to 5,295.
Treasury yields are climbing higher again after a few days&rsquo; retreat, the 10-year note at 4.32%.
Turning to commodities, the price of crude is up 2.70% to $64.15 for a barrel of WTI. Precious metals, however, are taking a hit. The yellow metal is down 1% to $3,310 per ounce, and silver is down 2.15% to $32.25.
And Bitcoin and Ethereum, at the time of writing, are at $84,650 and $1,585 respectively.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Tariffs Supercharge AI Innovation
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The tariff shock is forcing companies to rediscover what made American manufacturing great in the first place: technological superiority,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s science-and-technology investor Ray Blanco.
&ldquo;For decades, American companies were addicted to cheap foreign labor &mdash; chasing ever-cheaper labor around the globe instead of investing in technological innovation at home.
&ldquo;Now, it will be addicted to domestic AI,&rdquo; he adds. &ldquo;For reshoring to make economic sense, companies must embrace automation on an unprecedented scale.
&ldquo;[Companies] won&rsquo;t just recreate their overseas labor-intensive processes,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;Instead, they&rsquo;ll invest in cutting-edge AI vision systems for quality control.
&ldquo;We&rsquo;re talking about AI-powered factories that require minimal human intervention &mdash; manufacturing that can operate 24/7 with a fraction of the labor costs.
&ldquo;They&rsquo;ll also deploy autonomous robots for materials handling and implement machine learning for predictive maintenance. They&rsquo;ll use AI for just-in-time inventory optimization.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The companies providing these technologies stand to see explosive growth as reshoring accelerates,&rdquo; notes Ray.
&ldquo;While everyone fixates on tariffs, they're missing the real story: AI is still on track to add more than $15 trillion to the global economy over the next few years.
&ldquo;While tariffs may reshape where physical goods are made, they have little impact on software, cloud services and intellectual property &mdash; precisely the areas where American AI dominance is strongest.
&ldquo;Even more promising are the AI innovators building platforms that can be exported globally &ndash; the digital infrastructure that will power not just American factories, but the world&rsquo;s transition to intelligent automation.&rdquo;
Ray concludes: &ldquo;Trump&rsquo;s tariffs might be the best thing that&rsquo;s EVER happened to AI.
&ldquo;For now, remember that periods of maximum pessimism often coincide with the greatest investment opportunities. We&rsquo;re looking for specific recommendations to play this trend.&rdquo;
Read on&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" /> Stealth Energy Dynasty
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Tesla is an AI energy empire in disguise,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s AI expert James Altucher.
&ldquo;Here&rsquo;s what everyone misses: By 2027, Tesla will make more money from AI energy than from cars,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;The real money is in AI energy infrastructure. And Tesla is already way ahead&hellip;
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;DOJO: Tesla&rsquo;s supercomputer. This isn&rsquo;t ChatGPT for Teslas. It&rsquo;s the brain. It trains itself. It powers autonomy in cars, robots, energy systems. It&rsquo;s building its own intelligence, every day</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>OPTICASTER: It&rsquo;s Tesla&rsquo;s AI that manages energy distribution in real time. It knows when to store energy, when to use it and when to trade it. It&rsquo;s like having a hedge fund manager for your electricity bill</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>AUTOBIDDER: Imagine AI trading electricity the way Wall Street trades stocks &mdash; except with 100% uptime and no emotion. It&rsquo;s already being used by energy companies and even Supercharger networks to buy and sell stored energy in real-time markets</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>POWERHUB: Think of it as the command center. It&rsquo;s an AI dashboard that tells you where your power is going, where it should go and how to make your grid smarter</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>OPTIMUS: The AI-trained humanoid robot that will literally install the future. Picture this: Optimus building solar farms in the desert. Optimus repairing wind turbines in a storm. Optimus cleaning and maintaining your entire energy infrastructure without sleep or pay raises.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;So what&rsquo;s the bottom line?&rdquo; asks James. &ldquo;In 2023, Tesla&rsquo;s energy profits were 6.5% of gross. In 2024? 25%... Energy revenue up 67%. Auto revenue down 7%.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;At this growth rate, Tesla will become the Amazon Web Services of energy by 2027,&rdquo; James forecasts. &ldquo;Except instead of selling server time, they&rsquo;re selling electricity... AI... autonomous tech... and maybe even the keys to Mars,&rdquo; he adds.
&ldquo;None of this includes the upside from&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Selling AI chips: the A15 chip</li>
<li>Offering AI-as-a-service from Dojo</li>
<li>Scaling Optimus</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;If you&rsquo;re still thinking about Teslas as cars, you&rsquo;re using a flip phone in the iPhone era,&rdquo; he emphasizes.
&ldquo;My guess? At today&rsquo;s price, TSLA is trading at more than 20x projected 2029 earnings &mdash; and that&rsquo;s without factoring in any potential upside from Tesla&rsquo;s robot army.
&ldquo;I&rsquo;ll say it again: Tesla is not a car company,&rdquo; James summarizes. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s the foundation of the next civilization.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mini-Me Mania
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Social media&rsquo;s newest obsession: Turning yourself into a plastic-wrapped, AI-generated action figure. 
Just upload a photo, feed ChatGPT some prompts about your ideal packaging and voil&agrave; &mdash; you&rsquo;re now a collectible doll with accessories of your choosing.
First exhibit?

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/684bpj4qApuhq4V95w8kOU/84b3381933279f6af5f3ec95d897fa7c/JeromePowell.png" alt="Jermome Powell" width="400px" />

What&rsquo;s missing? A scroll with a Trump nastygram&hellip; 
But let&rsquo;s not pretend AI runs on good vibes and unicorn dust&hellip; No, as we&rsquo;ve spotlighted for years now, AI requires a tremendous amount of energy.
Cambridge University Professor Gina Neff points out, for instance, that ChatGPT alone guzzles more electricity annually than 117 countries.
Then there&rsquo;s the &ldquo;slop&rdquo; factor. These AI tools blend designs, references and especially letters into a monster mashup.
Exhibit B: Take a closer look at the dollar bill. Gadzooks, it&rsquo;s George Washington(ish) sans wooden teeth!
Meanwhile, the Federal &ldquo;Reserver&rdquo; seal is absolute gibberish. Is that cyrillic lettering? And a spider instead of an eagle?
According to my Gen Z daughter, this AI doll trend seems to be most popular among Millennials. As the top age range of this group approaches middle age, this could be the digital equivalent of a midlife crisis.
When a sports car might be more energy-efficient.
Have a wonderful Thursday! Dave will be back with more fresh takes tomorrow&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

27533

“What if confidence in command currencies collapses?” Jim Rickards asks. The solution: gold. 

The $27,533 Gold Solution

Jesse

After a brief respite, Mr. Market is getting jerked around again by trade-war headlines.

Widespread Panic

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />&ldquo;A Major Loser&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Let&rsquo;s take a few moments to unpack the narrative: You&rsquo;ve no doubt heard about why the stock market fell out of bed (again) yesterday.
&ldquo;Stocks got slammed again Tuesday,&rdquo; says Yahoo Finance, &ldquo;after President Trump issued more insults at Fed Chair Jerome Powell.&rdquo;
Trump called Powell &ldquo;a major loser&rdquo; and demanded the Fed cut short-term interest rates &ldquo;NOW.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Investors are beginning to worry about the independence of the U.S. central bank,&rdquo; harrumphs the Financial Times, &ldquo;as the president increases the volume of his attacks, threatening decades of monetary policy as well as the dollar&rsquo;s status as the world&rsquo;s reserve currency.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Reality check: The Fed&rsquo;s vaunted &ldquo;independence&rdquo; has been a joke for many decades.
When inflation was roaring higher in 2021&ndash;22, Joe Biden made clear that he expected Powell&rsquo;s Fed to get it back under control: &ldquo;A critical job in making sure that the elevated prices don't become entrenched rests with the Federal Reserve."
Back in the 1960s, President Lyndon Johnson shoved Fed Chair William McChesney Martin into a wall to reinforce his wishes for lower interest rates.
A few years later, Richard Nixon leaned on Fed Chair Arthur Burns to open the monetary spigots to ensure Nixon&rsquo;s re-election in 1972 &mdash; an act that set the stage for near-runaway inflation during the Jimmy Carter years.
As legend has it, a German reporter asked him why he pursued such a reckless policy. Burns replied that a Fed chairman must do what the president wants or else &ldquo;the central bank would lose its independence.&rdquo;
So&hellip; contrary to what the mainstream says, Mr. Market was not freaked out yesterday at the prospect of the Fed losing its &ldquo;independence.&rdquo; Rather, Mr. Market was freaked out that his illusion of Fed &ldquo;independence&rdquo; was laid bare for all the world to see.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Look, investors are terrified,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s hedge fund and private equity veteran James Altucher. &ldquo;The entire market is whipsawing like a penny stock. And people are frozen in fear.
&ldquo;But sitting on the sidelines is the absolute worst thing you could do right now &mdash; because a generational opportunity is sitting before us.&rdquo;
In the coming days, James anticipates an event he says &ldquo;is 100% certain to happen.
&ldquo;I haven&rsquo;t seen anything like this&hellip; in 17 years.&rdquo;
To help you seize the moment, James is hosting an exclusive event this Thursday at 11:00 a.m. EDT. We ask that you sign up in advance &mdash; but <a href="https://signups.dailyreckoning.com/2433924">signup is as simple as clicking on this link</a>. We&rsquo;ll email you all the follow-up information you&rsquo;ll need to be ready Thursday.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Great Dollar Shortage Is Back
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> There&rsquo;s still another wrinkle to the abnormal sell-off in the bond market this month.
As we&rsquo;ve chronicled the last couple of weeks, scared money fleeing out of stocks typically floods into U.S. Treasuries because of their presumed safe-haven status. That&rsquo;s how it worked during the 2020 COVID panic and the 2008 financial crisis.
But that&rsquo;s not what happened this time. Stocks and bonds sold off hard together.
Here too, mainstream narratives are all about Trump (and the tariffs), stripping out any historical context.
We can&rsquo;t say it often enough: The Biden administration&rsquo;s unprecedented act of freezing Russia&rsquo;s U.S. Treasury holdings did at least as much to undermine global confidence in Treasuries as Trump&rsquo;s tariff regime &mdash; just not as suddenly.
Beyond that, there&rsquo;s a general recognition now that Uncle Sam will never get his fiscal act together &mdash; not after a quarter-century of &ldquo;forever wars,&rdquo; bank bailouts and the mad COVID spending.
But Jim Rickards says there&rsquo;s even more to the story.
Jim and his team of experts are gathering today in Jekyll Island, Georgia &mdash; where the concept of the Federal Reserve was first hatched among secretive elites in 1910. As you might expect, the bond market is one of the hot topics.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;It is true that China (and others) are selling U.S. Treasuries, but that is not a sign of dumping or getting out of U.S. dollars. Quite the opposite,&rdquo; Jim wrote his Strategic Intelligence readers this week.
&ldquo;The real explanation is that there is a global shortage of dollars and dollar-denominated collateral such as Treasury bills. China is selling Treasuries, but it&rsquo;s out of desperation to get dollars to prop up its currency and its banking system. China wishes it had more dollars and more Treasuries, but it can&rsquo;t afford them due to the dollar shortage.&rdquo;
The dollar shortage Jim describes isn&rsquo;t new; it&rsquo;s been ongoing in one form or another since 2016. We last had occasion to visit the issue in depth <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/dollars-dollars-everywhere">in the fall of 2023</a>.
&ldquo;This points to the real problem,&rdquo; Jim says. &ldquo;We&rsquo;re on the brink of a global liquidity crisis possibly worse than 2020 and 2008. It has to do with fear in the banking system and some mismanagement by the U.S. Treasury. It&rsquo;s not about tariffs; it&rsquo;s about credit.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not too late to reduce equity exposure and increase allocations to cash and gold. That move will see you through.&rdquo;
For sure, Jim and crew will dive deeper into the topic tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. EDT during a briefing just for you, titled The Final Secret of Jekyll Island.
Everything you need to know about how we got here in 2025, and what to expect the rest of the year &mdash; the Rickards team will cover it all. This is a free event and we won&rsquo;t try to sell you a premium trading service. We just want you to have a better handle on all the cross-currents that are making this year so, umm, interesting.
<a href="https://paradigmpressgroup.com/jekyll-island-2025">Check out tomorrow&rsquo;s agenda at this link</a>. We&rsquo;ll email you a link to the livestream shortly before it gets underway.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Rebound Day
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Whether it&rsquo;s just an oversold bounce or something more meaningful, the major U.S. stock indexes are rallying after yesterday&rsquo;s sell-off.
Stock futures started taking off last night amid rumors that the Trump administration was about to reach a trade deal with Vietnam &mdash; which would be significant because the White House views much of Vietnam&rsquo;s export trade as originating in China.
At this point, any deal with anyone would instill some measure of confidence that the administration has a plan and it&rsquo;s executing the plan.
But even in the absence of a done deal and a definitive announcement&hellip; the S&amp;P 500 has recovered more than half of yesterday&rsquo;s losses. As we write, the index is up 1.8% to 5,253. That&rsquo;s down about 14.5% from the S&amp;P&rsquo;s record close on Feb. 19.
Bonds sold off as well yesterday, but those too are staging a rebound. The yield on a 10-year Treasury note is 4.39%.
Gold futures popped over $3,500 overnight and have sunk steadily since. At last check the bid in the spot market is $3,431, still a tad higher than at this time 24 hours ago. Silver is a dime away from $33.
Elsewhere in the commodity complex, crude is up nearly a buck to $64 on the nose.
At last, Bitcoin seems to be enjoying some safe-haven buying alongside gold &mdash; surpassing $90,000 for the first time since early March.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> We present the following with no further comment&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3Gv6JjsaRU2rxF0OPoKo0q/679868129f74296d4d0aa2c120aa772d/FortKnox.png" alt="fort knox" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: The TSA
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />After our update in yesterday&rsquo;s edition on the Real ID requirements coming into effect for air travelers last month, a reader weighs in&hellip;
&ldquo;Reading Bullet No. 4 made me reflect on the millions of shoeless, beltless travelers (like the faceless school children falling into the Pink Floyd meat grinder in the movie The Wall) stumbling their way through the TSA obscene search lines.
&ldquo;The overriding question; How many hijackings have there been since 911, as a percentage of the number of flights? Why should I think one more star on my driver's license is going to have any effect on anything except the extra income to driver's license bureaus? Oh, and more loss of privacy since my face is now in a national database?
&ldquo;Rep. Massie may well be right, but who (in the deep state) really cares what he says?&rdquo;
Dave responds: And where the hell are the DOGE boys when you need them?
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
P.S. Apologies for the rather abbreviated nature of today&rsquo;s edition. Your editor is battling stomach flu so severe it prevented me from joining the Rickards crew at Jekyll Island. Off to get some more rest&hellip;

image (100)

The Fed’s vaunted “independence” has been a joke for many decades.

Fed Chair in the Hot Seat

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Mainstream Wakes Up &mdash; and Fouls Up
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As the saying goes, never believe a rumor in Washington until it&rsquo;s been officially denied. 
Late yesterday, Bloomberg published the following:
<blockquote>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down the recent selloff in the bond market, rejecting speculation that foreign nations were dumping their holdings of US Treasuries, while flagging that his department has tools to address dislocation if needed.</blockquote>
<blockquote>&lsquo;I don&rsquo;t think there&rsquo;s a dumping&rsquo; by foreign investors, Bessent said in an interview Monday with Bloomberg Television while on a visit to Buenos Aires, Argentina.</blockquote>
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-real-reason-for-the-tariff-pause">Last Thursday</a>, we spilled a fair amount of digital ink on the proposition that foreigners were dumping their Treasuries &mdash; casting a no-confidence vote against an asset class that for many decades was thought to be a &ldquo;safe haven.&rdquo;
True or not, it was indisputable that Treasuries were not a safe haven in the aftermath of Donald Trump&rsquo;s &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; announcement. Typically when the stock market sells off hard, hot money that&rsquo;s fleeing stocks will flood into Uncle Sam&rsquo;s debt.
But that&rsquo;s not what happened last week. Stocks and bonds sold off hard together.
It was this rupture in the bond market &mdash; not the stock market &mdash; that spooked the Trump administration and prompted the 90-day pause on much of its tariff regime.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Since our Thursday write-up, we see the mainstream picking up on this theme &mdash; but, of course, getting it totally wrong.
The turmoil in the bond market &ldquo;reflects deeper worries as Trump&rsquo;s tariffs threats and erratic policy moves have made America seem hostile and unstable,&rdquo; says The Associated Press &mdash; &ldquo;fears that are not likely to go away even after the tariff turmoil ends.&rdquo;
Reflecting on the safe-haven reputation of Treasuries, New York Times reporter Peter Goodman says the trouble in the bond market &ldquo;revealed the extent to which President Trump has shaken faith in that basic proposition, challenging the previously unimpeachable solidity of U.S. government debt.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> For the mainstream, it&rsquo;s all about Trump and tariffs because of course. But as we said last week, it&rsquo;s about so much more.
Treasuries&rsquo; safe-haven reputation with foreigners was previously dealt a huge blow by the Biden administration. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Washington froze the Treasuries owned by Russia&rsquo;s central bank &mdash; later confiscating the interest payments and handing them to Ukraine.
Every government on the face of the planet that had less-than-friendly relations with Washington logically wondered: Are we next?
It is no coincidence that since 2022, global central banks have been buying gold &mdash; an asset that lies beyond Washington&rsquo;s reach &mdash; at a record pace.
And there&rsquo;s still another factor in play -&ndash; one that goes much further back in history. Read on&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Nothing &ldquo;Normal&rdquo; About This
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Rewind again to last Thursday: Even though the Trump administration had declared its 90-day pause 24 hours earlier, the turbulence in the bond market persisted.
Treasury prices continued to fall &mdash; pushing Treasury yields higher. For a while, the yield on a 10-year T-note surpassed 4.5% &mdash; up dramatically in less than a week from under 4.0%.
This too is something that under &ldquo;normal&rdquo; circumstances shouldn&rsquo;t have happened.
What was it that was still spooking the bond market?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The answer is the gargantuan growth of the national debt &mdash; growth that the U.S. House voted last Thursday to accelerate.
First, a chart for perspective. This is the national debt. You can see how it started taking off in the 2000s to fund the &ldquo;forever wars&rdquo;... went on a higher trajectory after the 2008 financial crisis&hellip; and went on a still higher trajectory after COVID.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/LJaTAhcjtXyqYPO2RGpNj/587e38fd97dd7fdf8a7192283967189a/5Bullets_National_Debt_0415.png" alt="National Debt" width="540px" />
Which brings us to the present moment: As we&rsquo;ve mentioned periodically in recent months, the Trump tax cuts &mdash; aka the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 &mdash; are set to expire at the end of this year.
The law was given an expiration date because of the peculiar way budget math works in Washington. The Congressional Budget Office evaluates big tax cuts and big new spending programs by how much they&rsquo;ll cost over the next 10 years.
To keep these initiatives from costing &ldquo;too much,&rdquo; lawmakers usually give them an expiration date. Thus the architects of the Trump tax cuts agreed to sunset them after eight years. Reverting to Obama-era tax rates in 2026-27 made the weird budget math all work out over the 10-year &ldquo;budget window.&rdquo;
Obviously the president and the Republican majority in Congress would like to make these tax cuts permanent. But the budget-window custom &mdash; a phenomenon dating back to the Budget Act of 1974 &mdash; makes that a challenging task.
On Saturday April 5, the Senate passed a resolution effectively chucking this budget-window convention &mdash; clearing the way to make the tax cuts permanent.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />This past Thursday, the House passed the same resolution. And the bond market freaked out anew.
Several Republican budget hawks resisted. They wanted spending cuts to match or exceed the amount of the tax cuts.
But House Speaker Mike Johnson once again exercised iron discipline over his slender majority.
Only two Republicans held out &mdash; Indiana&rsquo;s Victoria Spartz and the courageous Kentuckian Thomas Massie.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1VJyDYWSXMkg9rtt00DWXv/11b8b738ec5bbf9efbdeb5a0214e32c2/Thomas-Tweet.png" alt="thomas tweet" width="540px" />
&ldquo;This is really a complete evisceration of the budget resolution rules,&rdquo; says demographer Neil Howe. &ldquo;The whole idea was to keep this within a budget discipline and the 10-year rule was the one that&rsquo;s always been traditionally used: Everything has to balance within 10 years.&rdquo;
Mr. Howe is best known for coining the term &ldquo;Millennial&rdquo; along with his late collaborator William Strauss. But he&rsquo;s also a D.C. budget wonk from back in the day, working with fiscal-hawk think tanks like the Concord Coalition. He knows this stuff backwards and forwards.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Key point, and it goes back to that first chart: Congress now has &ldquo;a free ticket to borrow $3-5 trillion more over the next 10 years than the established budget rules would have allowed,&rdquo; Mr. Howe said last week on his Trend Watch podcast.
&ldquo;And this means continually widening the projected deficit as a share of GDP rather than closing it.&rdquo;
Here, we&rsquo;ll re-up a chart we&rsquo;ve shared several times in recent months. It shows that the annual budget deficit in fiscal year 2024 equaled 6.4% of America&rsquo;s annual economic output as measured by GDP.
Outside of World War II, the global financial crisis and COVID, the number has never been this bad. There&rsquo;s no such crisis now. It&rsquo;s unprecedented.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5r9Ere3nCHsbBPteKM5Fvc/070021cd1f61c0323e2dbd5ff4bf8102/FMF_5Bullets_Chart_1011.png" alt="torn money" width="540px" />
And with half of fiscal year 2025 already in the books, this year&rsquo;s number is on track to be worse.
That&rsquo;s not &ldquo;normal.&rdquo; But the story doesn&rsquo;t end there &ndash; as you&rsquo;ll soon see&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Bessent Is Trapped
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Next key point: The bill passed by Congress blows up Treasury Secretary Bessent&rsquo;s vaunted &ldquo;3-3-3 plan&rdquo; to revive the economy.
The first and perhaps most important plank of that plan is to shrink the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028.
Again, the deficit was 6.4% of GDP in fiscal year 2024 and will be higher in fiscal year 2025. And as we mentioned <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/avoiding-the-t-word#4">on Friday</a>, Elon Musk has dialed back his initial DOGE goal of $2 trillion in budget savings to a paltry $150 billion.
Unless Congress finds some sort of spending discipline &mdash; and how likely is that? &mdash; the line on that first chart of the national debt is set to go hyperbolic.
We said in January that Bessent&rsquo;s 3-3-3 plan <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/scott-bessents-3-3-3-666">would be a tough row to hoe</a>. Now it&rsquo;s impossible. He&rsquo;s trapped and can&rsquo;t get out.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6L3gRNMpViIuh3vHhH1G3H/0bb73347f0a92f154452885b2005f8dd/ScottBessent.png" alt="scott bessent" width="450px" />
That&rsquo;s why the bond market didn&rsquo;t stabilize last Thursday.
True, it&rsquo;s stabilized a bit since then in the absence of any new shocks. Even so, the yield on a 10-year Treasury this morning is 4.36%. In more &ldquo;normal&rdquo; times it wouldn&rsquo;t be anywhere near this high.
These aren&rsquo;t normal times. Treasuries have lost their luster as a safe haven. But now you know that the story is much more complex than just the tariffs. It&rsquo;s a storm that&rsquo;s been brewing throughout the 21st century.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> We reiterate our guidance from last week: Gold is the new safe haven. It&rsquo;s no coincidence that gold broke over $3,200 an ounce for the first time when the House voted last Thursday &ndash; and it&rsquo;s still there today.
Even the mainstream is glomming onto gold: Analysts at UBS are calling for $3,500 by year-end. Goldman Sachs is even more ambitious &mdash; $3,700 by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026.
Hesitant to buy something when it&rsquo;s at all-time highs? Buy silver.
At $32.16 an ounce it takes 100 ounces of silver to equal one ounce of gold &mdash; a rare occurrence that makes silver a real bargain relative to gold.
With the debt on its present trajectory, there&rsquo;s nothing to stop silver from eventually reclaiming its 2011 high of $50 &mdash; or even its 2011 high adjusted for inflation, which is $70.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Biggest Winner, Biggest Loser
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> With the stock market&rsquo;s spate of volatility winding down for the moment, it&rsquo;s not too early to assess winners and losers.
As Paradigm&rsquo;s macroeconomics authority Jim Rickards sees it, the biggest winner is Warren Buffett.
&ldquo;He quietly sold off equities in 2023 and 2024 and accumulated a $325 billion pile of cash,&rdquo; Jim says. &ldquo;Now, he not only survived the storm but he&rsquo;s getting ready to go shopping for good companies that have fallen even more than the market as a whole.&rdquo;
The biggest loser? Germany.
&ldquo;They were in sad shape before the trade war because they spent 14 years closing down every coal-fired power plant and almost every nuclear plant based on the phony climate change hoax,&rdquo; says Jim. &ldquo;Then they boycotted Russian energy.
&ldquo;How do you power an industrial economy that runs on energy when you have no energy except for high-priced imports? You don&rsquo;t. Germany is de-industrializing. Its major companies are moving operations to Hungary and Mexico.
&ldquo;Now they have been slammed with tariffs on the manufactured goods they do still make, but their ability to negotiate is blunted by the leadership of the EU, which is even more delusional than the German leaders.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s sad to see a great country and technological powerhouse go down the drain,&rdquo; Jim concludes. &ldquo;But that&rsquo;s exactly where their incompetent globalist leadership is taking them.&rdquo;
In the near-term, however, Germany&rsquo;s benchmark DAX index has recovered all its post-&rdquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; losses. Go figure&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> In the absence of any market-moving headlines, today might turn out to be a U.S. stock-market milestone.
Recall that yesterday our chart hound Greg Guenthner said the last time the S&amp;P 500 moved less than 1% within the trading day was March 25. It&rsquo;s an extraordinary amount of up-and-down movement and it began well before the tariff announcement on April 2.
Lo and behold, calm is prevailing today: No big swings either way. At last check the S&amp;P 500 is up a third of a percent at 5,424. That&rsquo;s down 11.7% from the index&rsquo;s record close on February 19&hellip; and up 8.8% from its closing low a week ago today.
The big banks continue to report bang-up earnings &mdash; today it was Citi and Bank of America&rsquo;s turn. Both are up about 4% on the day.
Like the S&amp;P 500, crude is looking calm, down 32 cents at $61.21.
Bitcoin is trying to break out of its trading range of recent days, now over $85,000.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />On this Tax Day, we leave you with the following&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1GFm5mUYFcbZMOdZhS6XuG/a468ae6d0b39b9c3ffd1d173b817e536/taxation.png" alt="taxation" width="540px" />
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

ScottBessent

We see the mainstream picking up on this theme — the rupture of the bond market — but, of course, getting it totally wrong.

This. Is. Not. Normal. 

Nothing “Normal” About This

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Mr. Market&rsquo;s Daring Bet
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Mr. Market is laying down a daring bet today.
In case you weren&rsquo;t glued to the news over the weekend, Customs and Border Protection posted a notice late Friday saying that many electronics would be exempt from the new tariffs &ndash; including electronics from China.
But on the Sunday talk show circuit, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said those goods would nonetheless face separate tariffs in another month or two.
Then the president himself weighed in. &ldquo;There was no tariff &lsquo;exception&rsquo; announced on Friday,&rdquo; he posted on his Truth Social site. Instead, those goods will be subjected to a different tariff regime involving semiconductors.
Clear as mud, right?
And yet, Wall Street is on the rally tracks today. At last check, the S&amp;P 500 is up nearly 1.5%. Between today&rsquo;s action as well as Friday&rsquo;s, all of Thursday&rsquo;s 3.4% loss has been recovered.
No, that&rsquo;s not an all-clear signal.
For the moment, Wall Street is betting on &ldquo;less tariff action&rdquo; &mdash; and potentially setting itself up for another severe downdraft when that bet doesn&rsquo;t pay off.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;While everyone is worried about a market crash, what is worse than a crash and quick recovery is a long, slow grind down,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s macro maven Jim Rickards.
&ldquo;That does not mean a one-day crash of 10% or more. It could mean a slow grind down perhaps 20% or 30% over six months or even longer.
&ldquo;A quick crash can recover quickly. With a slow grind, many investors tell themselves it will come back or &lsquo;buy the dips&rsquo; or hang in there. Then it will grind down some more until the retail investor finally capitulates with large losses.&rdquo;

Jim&rsquo;s guidance: &ldquo;Investors should lighten up on equity exposure to reduce losses during this stock market decline&rdquo; &mdash; because as he sees it, &ldquo;the next 12 months could be a rough ride for those who aren&rsquo;t prepared.&rdquo;
Jim&rsquo;s been expecting chaos just like this ever since Trump&rsquo;s election. And he&rsquo;s been crafting a detailed strategy to play the trade war.
Like it or not, &ldquo;Trump is igniting an economic power shift that will trigger one of the biggest money-making opportunities of our lifetime,&rdquo; Jim says.
We&rsquo;re talking about the potential for 1,000% gains before the end of this year. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2431363">Follow this link to learn more &ndash; because Jim says &ldquo;I&rsquo;m here to ensure you </a><a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2431363">do not </a><a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2431363">become a victim.&rdquo;</a>

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />It&rsquo;s Not All About Tariffs
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Now for a vivid reminder from Paradigm trading pro Greg Guenthner: &ldquo;The market&rsquo;s foundation was cracking even before Trump&rsquo;s tariff announcement.
&ldquo;Yet most traders are still clinging to the idea that we&rsquo;re in a temporary pullback, believing the bull will get back up and start charging again. It won&rsquo;t.&rdquo;
The problem didn&rsquo;t start with &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; on April 2. It started more than a week earlier on March 25 &mdash; at the very moment the S&amp;P 500 bumped up against its 200-day moving average. It was a crucial test for the index &mdash; and it failed that test.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/PjatbVLNZp8E2Z4qbbfje/1581c59404559a4767fc8e6646faec54/5Bullets_RunningScared_041025.png" alt="running scared" width="540px" />
That&rsquo;s why the monster rally last Wednesday&hellip; and the uptick Friday and today&hellip; are not an all-clear signal. Greg reminds us of a saying among chart watchers: Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average. 
&ldquo;That&rsquo;s certainly been the case this month,&rdquo; he adds. &ldquo;The new lows list is miles longer than the new highs. And we haven&rsquo;t experienced a trading day with an intraday move less than 1% since the S&amp;P was rejected at its 200-day moving average back on March 25th.
&ldquo;Prognosis: expect bear market action to continue, complete with failed rallies and larger-than-average intraday swings.&rdquo;
What can you do? For one thing, &ldquo;Use big relief rallies like we saw last Wednesday as an opportunity to &lsquo;get right&rsquo; with any broken plays that might be weighing you down,&rdquo; Greg advises. &ldquo;Sell longs into strength and aggressively take profits on these big upside days&hellip;
&ldquo;If you can preserve your capital now, you&rsquo;ll have an excellent shot at winning big when stocks retest their lows, or when the averages are able to break through resistance and mount a sustainable rally.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As the day wears on, the Monday-morning rally is losing a little of its oomph. The S&amp;P&rsquo;s earlier 1.5% gain is looking more like 1% now. The Nasdaq is likewise up 1%; the Dow&rsquo;s gain is a tad weaker.
Among today&rsquo;s big gainers are MP Materials Corp (MP) &mdash; up 22% as China has further tightened its controls on exports of rare-earth elements. Meanwhile, the big banks continue to kick off earnings season &mdash; Goldman Sachs up nearly 2% after handily beating analyst expectations.
The tension in the bond market remains elevated, with the yield on a 10-year Treasury note still over 4.4% <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-real-reason-for-the-tariff-pause">for reasons we explored in-depth last Thursday</a>. (And there&rsquo;s another disturbing wrinkle to the story; hopefully we can get to it tomorrow.)
Precious metals are selling off, but gold is still holding the line on $3,200 and silver on $32. The gold-silver ratio continues to hover around 100, a historically high figure that makes silver a true bargain relative to gold. Mining stocks are moving up, the HUI index at another best-since-2013 reading of 395.
Crude rallied after we hit &ldquo;send&rdquo; on Friday, and it&rsquo;s hanging on to most of those gains today at $61.32.
Bitcoin is on the high end of its recent trading range at $84,613.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Trump&rsquo;s Quagmire
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Donald Trump continues to fail what Jim Rickards calls his &ldquo;Vietnam moment.&rdquo;
Jim generally gives the president high marks for his first three months. &ldquo;Trump&rsquo;s one blind spot,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;is Ukraine.&rdquo;
Recall it was Democrat Lyndon Johnson who dramatically escalated Washington&rsquo;s involvement in Vietnam &mdash; but it became Republican Richard Nixon&rsquo;s war for five more years. Jim says Trump risks something similar in Ukraine. Especially with posts like this on Friday&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3m0SbVYwxdDwMDlsD14pwe/144e360235cd2f0e2c1e0bacfda16399/TrumpTweet.png" alt="trump tweet" width="540px" />
Trump very much wants a cease-fire, publicly saying last month he&rsquo;s &ldquo;pissed off&rdquo; with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But as Jim told his Strategic Intelligence readers last week, Putin feels no pressure to agree to a cease-fire as long as Moscow continues winning the war.
The problem is that Trump is &ldquo;being misled by neocon warmongers in his own Cabinet,&rdquo; says Jim &mdash; &ldquo;such as National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and his subordinates.
&ldquo;Putin&rsquo;s terms for Ukraine have been clear since before the war began &mdash; demilitarization, de-Nazification, neutrality, and no NATO membership. The only changes have been the amount of territory that Russia will add to the Russian Federation&hellip;
&ldquo;Trump should just agree with Putin, sign a treaty and go home&hellip; What began as Biden&rsquo;s War will soon become Trump&rsquo;s War if he doesn&rsquo;t get some good advice and end it now.&rdquo;
<a id="4"></a>
This just in: Trump still isn&rsquo;t getting good advice. The following is not the statement of someone who &ldquo;has the cards.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1wUlOHgVtPFWMoJsvC2f98/2049ef3d0e0ee6b94a2919e0da226853/Trump-Tweet2.png" alt="trump tweet2" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Tick-Tock: Time Change Flip-Flop
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The good news is that the president is using his bully pulpit to try to do away with time change. The bad news is he now wants year-round daylight saving time.
He posted the following on Friday&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/10vLO6aHvLmD6vNYiK8RZ4/573640615fada6724688755c11478b25/Trump-tweet3.png" alt="trump tweet3" width="540px" />
Longtime readers know by now that most every March and November I lament the changing of the clocks.
It&rsquo;s not just the personal toll it takes on my aging carcass. It&rsquo;s also the leap in workplace accidents, car crashes and heart attacks the week after time change &ndash; and the persuasive evidence that DST does nothing to conserve energy, as it was once touted.
In 2020, the American Academy of Sleep Medicine, along with several other groups, published a position paper in the Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine.
Its recommendation &mdash; year-round standard time, because that&rsquo;s what would be &ldquo;best aligned with human circadian biology and has the potential to produce beneficial effects for public health and safety.&rdquo;
Which happens to be what the president advocated for in a post late last year.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/46FWipGu2bVt6ATKkxoYRW/13919ac0e2cc0f774ca80cdd573da7e0/Trump-tweet4.png" alt="trump tweet4" width="540px" />
Note the 100% flip-flop he&rsquo;s now performed. What changed?
Well, as we noted in our most recent DST writeup <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/deal-of-the-decade#4">last month</a>, there&rsquo;s a host of special interests that love the longer evenings &mdash; oil producers and refiners, convenience stores, golf courses, outdoor-equipment makers and so on.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The president is old enough that he should remember the failed experiment with year-round DST conducted amid the Arab oil embargo in 1974. 
Everyone hated it because kids were going to school in the dark. Here&rsquo;s a clipping from The Washington Post in early January of that year&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/124KYGpjPAV4LgxrKPHued/41f3faa51ef49b5147e009d6619d1061/Post.png" alt="Post" width="540px" />
The Senate Commerce Committee held a hearing on the issue last Thursday. According to Politico, &ldquo;Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said there&rsquo;s general consensus that the twice-annual changing of the clocks should end, but there&rsquo;s disagreement on whether to switch to daylight saving time or standard time.&rdquo;
To be continued&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Trump&rsquo;s Third Term
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Please stop promoting the video by Jim Rickards about sovereign wealth funds as explaining how Trump can have a third term,&rdquo; a reader implores.
&ldquo;I&rsquo;ve seen this before a few times. The video makes no effort to explain the connection. A third term is not even addressed in the video &hellip; unless someone on your staff is cynical enough to think all it would take is enormous popularity of Trump, and presenting the sovereign wealth case is all you need to say.
&ldquo;Let that person know, please, that y&rsquo;all can&rsquo;t assume most folks to be in agreement with that airy dismissal of our constitution or its intent. The 12th and 22nd amendments don&rsquo;t allow a third term, and a constitutional amendment, even with the wind of enormous popularity behind it, is unlikely to be ratified by 2028.
&ldquo;To be fair, what about an extra-constitutional presidency? It might be possible in a civil war environment. If that&rsquo;s the line of thought, then let&rsquo;s get your predictions in the right order, and state them clearly so we don&rsquo;t have to puzzle over what you might have in mind.&rdquo;
Dave responds: I confess I&rsquo;m not altogether certain which video you&rsquo;re talking about.
What I can tell you is that Jim recently performed a deep dive about an American sovereign wealth fund for readers of Rickards&rsquo; Insider Intel. It&rsquo;s important enough that it deserves a wider hearing &mdash; perhaps in the form of a special guest essay next week. Stay tuned.
As for a third Trump term, Jim has said for the last week in at least two of his publications that the 22nd Amendment specifies no one can be elected president more than twice.
Thus, the most likely path to a Trump third term would be J.D. Vance at the top of the ticket in 2028 and Trump as the running mate. Once inaugurated as president, Vance would resign and Trump would begin his third term.
Now here&rsquo;s a real mind-bender: Barack Obama could conceivably do the same thing.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/co-president-obama">Jim even broached that possibility in this space last summer</a> when it became apparent Kamala Harris would be at the top of the 2024 ticket. Obviously it didn&rsquo;t play out that way &mdash; but who&rsquo;s to say it couldn&rsquo;t next time around?
A Trump-Obama 2028 showdown?
I&rsquo;ll cast my vote for the giant meteor&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

5 bullets hero Businessman balancing on a wire with sky clouds cityscape background

shutterstock 287006765

Wall Street is betting on “less tariff action” — and potentially setting itself up for another severe downdraft when that bet doesn’t pay off.

Wall Street’s (Risky) Tariff Bet

shutterstock 2168992625

Forget tariffs for a moment. "Amidst the chaos, one asset class is showing remarkable resilience,” says Paradigm’s own James Altucher 

Avoiding the T-word

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Real Reason for the Tariff Pause
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It was Jan. 7, 1993 &mdash; two weeks before Bill Clinton would be sworn in as the 42nd president.
His economic policy team was gathered in Little Rock. At some point during the six-hour meeting, Clinton burst into one of his frequent foulmouthed tirades: &ldquo;You mean to tell me that the success of my program and my re-election hinges on the Federal Reserve and a bunch of ****ing bond traders?&rdquo;
To a great degree, yes. Especially those bond traders.
In a 13-month stretch from October 1993&ndash;November 1994, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed from 5.2% to over 8%. That was the bond market expressing zero confidence that Washington would ever get its fiscal house in order.
Clinton adviser James Carville: "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Fast-forward 32 years to yesterday&hellip; and another baby boomer president learned the lesson anew.
As you&rsquo;ve no doubt heard, Donald Trump put a 90-day pause on the &ldquo;reciprocal&rdquo; tariffs against every country but China. (The total tariff on Chinese imports to the United States is now 145%,)
The mainstream narrative is that after weeks of Trump and his advisers saying they didn&rsquo;t care about a falling stock market because the richest 10% of Americans own 88% of all stocks&hellip; Trump caved yesterday once the S&amp;P 500 fell 20% from its February peak.
But it wasn&rsquo;t the stock market freaking him out. It was the bond market.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Nobody paid attention &mdash; because it didn&rsquo;t feed the mainstream narrative &mdash; but Trump himself said as much yesterday.
&ldquo;The bond market is very tricky, I was watching it&hellip; people were getting a little queasy.&rdquo;
The MOVE Index is a measure of volatility in bonds &mdash; comparable to the VIX for stocks. Anytime the MOVE index surpasses 140, it typically signals some sort of imminent dislocation in financial markets.
Yesterday the MOVE Index hit 172.
That&rsquo;s happened only three times before &mdash; the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank two years ago&hellip; the collapse of Lehman Bros. in 2008&hellip; and the collapse of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management in 1998.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Going by Wall Street&rsquo;s conventional wisdom, the bond market &ldquo;shouldn&rsquo;t&rdquo; have blown up yesterday.
A CNBC article republished at the NBC News website described the action as &ldquo;confounding.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2lVm1noIZRkr1DQyiYBmyZ/a3e3af2fb7ae83baff948326fe4ede17/NBCNews.png" alt="CNBC News" width="540px" />
Usually amid a stock-market rout, hot money floods into Treasuries because of their perceived safety.
As the thinking goes, when you lend money to Uncle Sam, you know he&rsquo;ll pay you back. Even if he pays you back in depreciating fiat currency, that&rsquo;s a better bet at a time the stock market is going to hell.
That&rsquo;s exactly what happened during the global financial crisis in 2008. Anyone sitting on long-term Treasuries was able to ride out the crisis in style and make up for some of their stock losses. (A substantial position in long-term Treasuries saved your editor&rsquo;s bacon in 2008.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />But before the tariff reversal yesterday afternoon, both the stock market and the bond market were going to hell at the same time.
Reminder: Falling bond prices translate to rising bond yields. The yield on a 10-year Treasury note leaped from 3.99% as of last Friday&rsquo;s close to a peak of 4.51% yesterday.
In bond market terms, that&rsquo;s not just an earthquake. That&rsquo;s Fukushima &mdash; an earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear reactor meltdown.
As the bond market fell apart, so did the Trump administration&rsquo;s hopes that its policies would drive down longer-term interest rates &mdash; making it easier for businesses and consumers to borrow and especially to lessen the burden of financing Uncle Sam&rsquo;s colossal debt load.
(We&rsquo;ll come back to the part about the government&rsquo;s debt load shortly&hellip;)
But forget the mainstream and forget conventional wisdom: The bond-market train wreck is &ldquo;confounding&rdquo; only to someone who hasn&rsquo;t been paying attention. As you&rsquo;ll see momentarily&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The World &ldquo;Nopes out&rdquo; of Treasuries
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> That the bond market was going haywire was beyond dispute. Exactly why is open to interpretation.
By some accounts, the &ldquo;basis trade&rdquo; was blowing up. The basis trade is something hedge funds do to exploit the tiny gaps between the price of U.S. Treasuries and the price of Treasury futures. These hedge funds employ enormous amounts of leverage to achieve outsized profits.
But a sudden jump in bond yields can wreck these basis trades in short order. As the thinking goes, some big player &mdash; maybe Ken Griffin&rsquo;s Citadel, maybe someone else &mdash; was in deep doo-doo and owed beaucoup bucks to someone else and didn&rsquo;t have the ready cash.
Perhaps that &ldquo;someone else&rdquo; also lacked ready cash to pay their counterparties&hellip; and so on, and so on. That&rsquo;s a recipe for &ldquo;contagion&rdquo; and a 2008-style disaster at warp speed.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> That&rsquo;s one possibility. The other is that foreign holders of Treasuries exercised a vote of no confidence in the U.S. government.
That&rsquo;s the possibility broached yesterday by Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino. &ldquo;And who are those people dumping our bonds? Japan, the biggest holder of bonds, was selling bonds,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;That&rsquo;s what I&rsquo;m getting from some very big money managers. China, maybe to some extent, but it was largely Japan and others.
&ldquo;If you have a mass sale of bonds, that means people are losing confidence in the U.S. economy, on the ability to do deals with us; and from what I understand, this is what forced the hand of this 90-day reprieve.&rdquo;
We&rsquo;ll take Gasparino&rsquo;s hypothesis one step further.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If it was foreigners dumping Treasuries, that&rsquo;s because foreigners see the tariffs as a &ldquo;last straw&rdquo; piled on top of an enormous haystack that&rsquo;s been accumulating for years.
Begin with the sheer size of the national debt &mdash; $36.2 trillion.
That&rsquo;s 120% the size of America&rsquo;s annual economic output&ndash; far beyond the &ldquo;point of no return&rdquo; when the scale of the debt chokes off any prospect of meaningful economic growth in the future. Weak economic growth translates to weak tax revenue, which only makes the debt load worse and worse.
Meanwhile, the efforts of the DOGE boys have yet to put a significant dent in this chart &mdash; which we can&rsquo;t share often enough. Since 2020, federal spending has gone onto a permanently higher trajectory. We&rsquo;re not going back to some sort of pre-pandemic &ldquo;normal.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1hahbVFl8Sccb7v2vMMRvg/87c0453ed1fdd25cc06ddefaad7eab7c/5_Bullets_Chart_091124.png" alt="no going back to normal" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Beyond the sheer size of the debt, there&rsquo;s the fact U.S. Treasuries have become a weapon of economic warfare.
This too we can&rsquo;t say often enough: The Biden administration&rsquo;s unprecedented sanctions on Russia &mdash; freezing the Russian central bank&rsquo;s Treasuries &mdash; undermined foreigners&rsquo; confidence in Treasuries as a &ldquo;safe&rdquo; asset.
And now that the Trump administration is using tariffs not as a way to &ldquo;level the playing field&rdquo; with trading partners but rather to get concessions on everything from fentanyl to migrants to punishing the buyers of Venezuelan oil&hellip;&nbsp;
&hellip; is it any wonder a critical mass of foreigners might be &ldquo;noping out&rdquo; of U.S. Treasuries for good?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It&rsquo;s no coincidence that as stocks and bonds both sold off yesterday, the real &ldquo;safe haven&rdquo; was gold.
Gold soared over $100 in a day &mdash; something keen observers of the precious metals markets can&rsquo;t recall happening before. Gold was where the hot money was flowing.
Year-to-date, gold is up 18% while the S&amp;P 500 is down 10% and long-term Treasuries are flat after this week&rsquo;s sell-off. (I ditched my own long-term Treasuries last year and I don&rsquo;t expect to buy them again until at least the 2050s, assuming I live that long.)
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/iUcbY3dhbuOPPdPQJCMHU/50c19cd0ae4ea4a8a8757fc108c12830/5Bullets_Chart_TheNewSafeHaven_041025.png" alt="the new safe haven" width="540px" />
Yes, gold is back near all-time highs this morning at $3,148 &mdash; up another $66 on the day! And while it might pull back to $2,800&ndash;2,900 during this spring and early summer, the long-term path is still much, much higher.
If you already have 10% of your portfolio allocated to gold, as Paradigm&rsquo;s macro maven Jim Rickards has long recommended, good on you.
If not, don&rsquo;t be intimidated by the all-time high. Just dollar-cost average: Buy a little bit at a time, every week or every month, until you get to your 10%.
Because like it or not, Treasuries just aren&rsquo;t the safe haven they used to be&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Reversal After Reversal Day
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />After ripping 9.3% higher on the day yesterday, the stock market is down 3.2% as we write today. Good times.
The S&amp;P 500 rests at 5,285, down 6.5% from where it stood before the &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; announcement eight days ago. The Dow&rsquo;s losses on the day are narrower, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s steeper.
Despite yesterday&rsquo;s monster rally, the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis, &ldquo;not much has changed,&rdquo; ventures Paradigm chart hound Greg Guenthner.
The major U.S. indexes &ldquo;remain below their respective 200-day moving averages. The tariff situation has evolved, but it hasn&rsquo;t gone away (and won&rsquo;t anytime soon). Volatility remains elevated.
&ldquo;Taking all this into account, I do not believe this market will sprint back to new highs right away.&rdquo;
That doesn&rsquo;t necessarily mean a crash &mdash; but it does likely mean a lot of sideways chop.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Elsewhere, crude is back below $60. Yesterday it traded as low as $55 and as high as $62.50. 
The White House no doubt welcomes lower oil prices. But if they get much lower than this, some wells will cease to be profitable and their operators will cap them. Which would have the effect of constraining supply and pushing prices back higher.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As it happens, a downtrend in energy prices helped bring the official inflation number to its lowest in six months.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics says inflation is now running 2.4% year-over-year. On the one hand, that&rsquo;s down sharply from 3.0% only two months earlier. On the other hand, it&rsquo;s no better than it was last fall.
It helped that gasoline prices tumbled 6.3% between February and March. Overall energy costs &mdash; fuel, heat, electricity &mdash; fell 2.4%.
As we wrap up the day&rsquo;s market action, let&rsquo;s not forget silver is still a bargain relative to gold at $31.11. The gold price is still 100x higher as it&rsquo;s been since late last week. The only other time that&rsquo;s been the case was during the market meltdown of 2020.
Bitcoin hovers around $80,000.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />AI Needs Electricity (No Way! Really?)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Took long enough: The International Energy Agency has issued a report saying AI will place extreme demands on power grids worldwide, and especially in the United States.
We&rsquo;ve been on the case in these virtual pages since early 2024: The U.S. power grid was <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-monster-that-ate-the-power-grid-ai">already in rough shape</a> before AI datacenters started growing like topsy.
Now the IEA &mdash; an information clearinghouse for 31 member governments including all of North America and much of Europe &mdash; is finally getting around to acknowledging that &ldquo;the rise of AI has huge implications for energy.&rdquo;
A few interesting tidbits emerge in its new AI report: America will capture the biggest share of growing AI power demand. &ldquo;By the end of the decade,&rdquo; says a Wall Street Journal summary, &ldquo;the country is expected to consume more electricity for AI-driven data processing than for the production of aluminium, steel, cement and chemicals combined&hellip;&rdquo;
Investment implications? &ldquo;To meet rising demand, a diverse mix of energy sources will be tapped,&rdquo; the Journal continues. &ldquo;Renewables and natural gas are expected to play a leading role.&rdquo;
The IEA is all aboard the climate-change train so of course it&rsquo;s going to tout renewables. But it&rsquo;s onto something with natural gas: Gas is the only way to quickly spin up added capacity. Nuclear is viable, yes &mdash; but construction is slow and the industry needs juice now.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Before we go, an oldie but goodie&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5eLj2HZsM2JcfeqrYwgJSA/9a77f6e6b57146ef9c6d0d75ae713716/Meme-4-10.png" alt="meme" width="540px" />
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

shutterstock 594256895

Going by Wall Street’s conventional wisdom, the bond market “shouldn’t” have blown up Wednesday. 

The Real Reason for the Tariff Pause

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />30 Years a Bully
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />At 12:01 this morning, Team Trump&rsquo;s sweeping 104% tariffs on Chinese imports officially took effect, marking a pivotal moment in the U.S.-China trade war. 
&ldquo;He asks for the world,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s hedge fund veteran Enrique Abeyta, referring to Trump&rsquo;s negotiation style. &ldquo;If he says, &lsquo;I want a 50% or 100% tariff,&rsquo; he knows it&rsquo;s ridiculous.&rdquo; Instead, Trump is leaving room for negotiations.
According to Enrique, Trump&rsquo;s strategy is deliberate and rooted in decades of business experience. &ldquo;There&rsquo;s a plan,&rdquo; he reassures. Accordingly, tariffs are just the opening salvo in a broader strategy aimed at addressing dire imbalances in global trade.
At its core? This strategy is about &ldquo;countering China,&rdquo; he says. Nearly every move &mdash; from reshoring manufacturing to addressing the fentanyl crisis &mdash; ties back to reducing America&rsquo;s dependence on China.
[For the second day in a row: Just as we&rsquo;re about to hit &ldquo;send&rdquo; on today&rsquo;s e-letter, Trump is allegedly considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for countries willing to negotiate. That said, according to rumors, there likely won&rsquo;t be any such mercy shown to China. Which would only reinforce Enrique&rsquo;s thesis. Read on!]
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;China is an economic aggressor,&rdquo; Enrique says bluntly. The world&rsquo;s second-largest economy, he says, has risen to global prominence through bullying policies that have left the U.S. vulnerable in key industries.
He points to rare earth minerals as one glaring example. Decades ago, the U.S. was a major producer of rare earths, he says, but China flooded the market, driving American companies out of business.
&ldquo;America&rsquo;s got tons of rare earths,&rdquo; Enrique notes. &ldquo;The problem is the Chinese were playing chess&hellip; I don&rsquo;t even know that we were on the checkerboard.&rdquo;
Tariffs, he argues, aim to correct this imbalance by incentivizing domestic production and reducing reliance on Chinese imports.
Enrique underscores tariffs aren&rsquo;t just about economics. At this juncture, Trump&rsquo;s trade strategy is a matter of national security.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;We&rsquo;ve created massive vulnerabilities,&rdquo; he warns, highlighting how dependence on Chinese supply chains could be catastrophic, for instance, in a conflict scenario.
&ldquo;If China decided to get truly aggressive &mdash; let&rsquo;s say with Taiwan or even the Philippines &mdash; we&rsquo;d be dangerously reliant on them for critical goods,&rdquo; Enrique explains.
Reshoring strengthens America&rsquo;s position against its most formidable competitor and ensures greater self-reliance in essential industries.
Trump&rsquo;s tariff strategy also extends to tackling the fentanyl epidemic. While Mexican cartels distribute the drug across U.S. borders, Enrique emphasizes the origin: &ldquo;The fentanyl problem is China, China, China,&rdquo; he asserts.
&ldquo;Fentanyl is one way they&rsquo;re poisoning our country,&rdquo; he adds. While domestic enforcement plays a role, Enrique believes cutting off Chinese supply lines would make a significant impact. &ldquo;You stop those imports of fentanyl coming in, trust me, it&rsquo;s going to help a lot.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Enrique&rsquo;s point: &ldquo;Trump&rsquo;s worldview is fundamentally bipolar &mdash; the U.S. versus China.&rdquo; And unlike past rivalries with nations like Russia, China poses a unique threat due to its rapid economic growth and industrial scale. &ldquo;China got to this point in 30 years!&rdquo; he emphasizes.
&ldquo;So bringing this all together,&rdquo; Enrique summarizes, &ldquo;I believe the goal of tariffs is to create what I would call a &lsquo;unified common market&rsquo; of North America. One that imposes significant barriers on China.
&ldquo;I think when all is said and done, they&rsquo;ll redo former NAFTA (now USMCA). And we get a bunch of good stuff, and it'll be fair. And I think they put tariffs on all goods coming from China into North America.&rdquo; he says.
&ldquo;Trump&rsquo;s goal is to neuter China &mdash; to stop exporting our wealth and our consumption that subsidizes them to be a global aggressor,&rdquo; Enrique concludes. &ldquo;If we don't, I believe there will be an inescapable backlash in the next 20&ndash;30 years.&rdquo;
Given Enrique&rsquo;s clear-eyed perspective &mdash; even if China refuses to negotiate tariffs &mdash; the Trump administration can still weaken China&rsquo;s grip on global trade and fortify America&rsquo;s position for the long game.

[Before the tariff freakout last Wednesday&hellip; Enrique Abeyta sat for a 45-minute interview on Monday, the content of which provides this morning&rsquo;s introduction.
As you can see, his &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; preview was calm, cool, collected&hellip; and overwhelmingly correct.
Currently, Enrique has an equally <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2429752">compelling thesis</a> &mdash; this time on tech giant Nvidia, that &ldquo;virtually nobody sees coming,&rdquo; he says.
&ldquo;I&rsquo;ve got an awesome idea, a great company,&rdquo; Enrique adds. &ldquo;It wins with tariffs, it wins with reshoring, it wins with AI.&rdquo; <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2429752">Click here</a> to see the details.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Spiked, Shredded and Crushed
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Volatility continues to spike. Stocks are getting torn to shreds. Bonds continue to get crushed,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s chart hound Greg Guenthner.
&ldquo;I don&rsquo;t have to tell you to be careful out there,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;But I do think it&rsquo;s important to review how we should approach a &lsquo;broken&rsquo; market.
&ldquo;For starters, there&rsquo;s no reason to force new trades while the market is in flux&hellip; There&rsquo;s a hint of panic in the air and we&rsquo;re seeing erratic moves in stocks. That&rsquo;s not a good environment to make targeted, higher-probability bets.
&ldquo;This is also a day where we&rsquo;ll have to pay close attention to the news,&rdquo; Greg says. &ldquo;I have a feeling that rumors, fresh headlines and conflicting information will continue to drive the markets in both directions.
&ldquo;Let&rsquo;s do our best to keep our heads on straight,&rdquo; he adds.
&ldquo;This is a good time to be heavy with cash in your trading account. We want to be ready to take advantage of any big opportunities that emerge once we get some signals.
&ldquo;It could be tomorrow, it could be next week,&rdquo; Greg concludes. &ldquo;The opportunities will eventually come.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />For the moment, at least, stocks are getting a reprieve. The techie Nasdaq is leading the way, up 1.60% to 15,510. Simultaneously, the S&amp;P 500 (+0.80%) and the Dow (+0.60%) are taking a breather at 5,025 and 37,870 respectively.
But oil, nevertheless, is getting a beatdown; crude is priced at $57.35 for a barrel of WTI. Precious metals, on the other hand, are catching bids. The yellow metal is up 3.75% to $3,103 per ounce while silver is up 2.25% to $30.35.
Crypto, at the time of writing, is rebounding: Bitcoin is up 1.70% to $78,000; Ethereum is up 2.30% to $1,500.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The &ldquo;Mar-a-Lago Accord&rdquo;: Jim Rickards Explains
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The concept of a &ldquo;Mar-a-Lago Accord&rdquo; is gaining traction, echoing historical international currency agreements&hellip; including the Smithsonian, Plaza and Louvre accords.
The idea &mdash; visited in Stephen Miran&rsquo;s November 2024 paper A User&rsquo;s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System &mdash; suggests using currency devaluation to counter the impact of tariffs, addressing what Miran sees as a &ldquo;persistent dollar overvaluation.&rdquo;
&ldquo;Shortly after the paper was published, Trump appointed Miran as chair of his Council of Economic Advisers, which gives his views added weight,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s macro authority Jim Rickards &mdash; who first discussed the idea of a Mar-a-Lago Accord in his 2019 book, Aftermath. 
In fact, Jim believes that Miran&rsquo;s current proposals could lead to a global financial crisis.
The original agreements, for instance, addressed currency imbalances to stabilize the global monetary system.
<ul>
<li>The Smithsonian Agreement in 1971 proposed to devalue the dollar after President Nixon ended its convertibility to gold</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Plaza Accord in 1985, initiated by Treasury Secretary James Baker, aimed to devalue the dollar gradually through central bank interventions.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;The purpose of the Louvre Accord was to lock down the accomplishments of the Plaza Accord,&rdquo; says Jim, &ldquo;to stop further dollar depreciation and return to a period of relative stability in foreign exchange markets.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The &ldquo;Mar-a-Lago Accord&rdquo;: Jim Rickards Critiques
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Miran&rsquo;s plan, Jim notes, involves devaluing the dollar and issuing 100-year bonds to attract foreign reserve managers &mdash; in theory, mitigating the impact of devaluation. 
But Jim critiques Miran&rsquo;s approach, cautioning that it overlooks the necessity of international cooperation.
&ldquo;The success of the Plaza Accord depended entirely on close cooperation of major finance ministries,&rdquo; he notes. &ldquo;No such cooperation exists today.&rdquo;
Jim also argues that the proposed dollar devaluation would not combat potential inflation from tariffs but rather exacerbate inflation by increasing the cost of imported goods.
He further dismisses ideas such as revaluing gold on the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s balance sheet as mere &ldquo;accounting games&rdquo; that would not affect the world price of gold.
The most significant concern, according to Jim, is the potential disruption to the short-term Treasury debt market. &ldquo;Substituting 100-year Treasury debt for short-term Treasury bills would make those bills scarce,&rdquo; he warns.
Given that Treasury bills serve as the most liquid collateral in the world and are fundamental to the eurodollar system and the derivatives market, their scarcity could &ldquo;implode bank balance sheets and lead to the greatest banking crisis in history.&rdquo;
In light of these potential risks, Jim suggests investors follow the lead of the BRICS+ nations &mdash; Brazil, Russia, India, China and more &mdash; by increasing their holdings of gold as a safe-haven asset.
&ldquo;The BRICS are moving toward gold as fast as they can. Investors can do the same,&rdquo; Jim says. &ldquo;Don&rsquo;t be left behind.&rdquo;

We&rsquo;ve prepared an exclusive &lsquo;Ultimate Gold Package' which we&rsquo;d like to rush to your doorstep FREE through this offer. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2429753">Click here now to see how to claim this brand-new gold resource.</a>

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Gold Fever
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I love searching for gold,&rdquo; says enthusiast Joe Marihugh as he scours the desert terrain with his trusty Minelab Gold Monster 1000 metal detector
The Desert Gold Diggers club, formed over 35 years ago in Arizona, has seen a surge in interest as gold prices soared past $3,000 per ounce for the first time in U.S. history.
According to club president Ralph Montano: &ldquo;We&rsquo;ve gotten a lot of new members lately&rdquo; &mdash; eager to learn the ropes.
For hobbyists like Montano and newcomers alike, metal detecting offers potential rewards. But Montano tempers expectations: &ldquo;You&rsquo;re not going to get rich&hellip; You might get lucky.&rdquo;
Whether uncovering nuggets or antique coins, the hunt for treasure is a time-honored pastime. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s out there &mdash; it&rsquo;s still out there,&rdquo; says Mr. Marihugh.
&ldquo;I&rsquo;ve been all the way over to California and Oregon looking for gold. I found a nice big hefty 3-gram nugget over there,&rdquo; says Bob Burgette, who joined the Desert Gold Diggers&rsquo; spring event in March.
&ldquo;When you see something like that, it just shines [when] the sun hits it. So it just gives you that gold fever.&rdquo;
The last of the true romantics? Nah&hellip;
We&rsquo;ll be back tomorrow; hope to see you then!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

shutterstock 2207471045

“China is an economic aggressor,” says hedge fund veteran Enrique Abeyta. Enter a “unified common market” of North America…

A New Era for North America

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Tariff Threat Escalates U.S.-China Trade War
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> President Trump has doubled down on his trade war with China, threatening to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports&hellip; if Beijing does not withdraw its retaliatory 34% tariff on U.S. goods.
If implemented, these new tariffs would bring the total tax on Chinese goods entering the U.S. to an astonishing 104%, marking one of the most aggressive escalations in the trade war yet.
[This just in: The White House now says that, barring China&rsquo;s recapitulation, the 104% tariff will go into effect at midnight.]
China has responded with defiance, pledging to &ldquo;fight to the end&rdquo; and rejecting what it describes as U.S. &ldquo;blackmail.&rdquo; Beijing insists its countermeasures are necessary to protect its sovereignty and interests, signaling no intention of backing down.
For now, President Trump is equally resolute in his tariff strategy, emphasizing that his administration is committed to achieving &ldquo;fair deals&rdquo; for the United States. &ldquo;Countries from all over the world are reaching out to us,&rdquo; he remarked on Monday, highlighting the surge in foreign leaders contacting the White House since &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; last week.
Trump notes that nations are offering concessions that &ldquo;we wouldn&rsquo;t have even thought to ask for,&rdquo; underscoring his belief in the effectiveness of his hard-line approach.
Notably, Trump denies reports suggesting a possible 90-day pause on tariffs. Nevertheless, when asked if tariffs are permanent or open for negotiation, Trump said coyly: &ldquo;They can both be true.&rdquo;
As for the duration &mdash; and multifaceted strategies &mdash; of trade wars, Paradigm&rsquo;s macro expert Jim Rickards offers an historical perspective&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;If a country raises tariffs on another country, you might say that the trade war continues as long as the higher tariffs are in place,&rdquo; Jim says.
&ldquo;But trade wars easily morph into currency wars,&rdquo; he notes. &ldquo;If a country is the target of tariffs, they can retaliate [by] cheapening their currency.
&ldquo;The cheaper local currency offsets the costs of higher tariffs and keeps the prices of exported goods unchanged in terms of the importing nation&rsquo;s currency.
&ldquo;Other ways of fighting trade wars include non-tariff barriers such as local subsidies, tax breaks and prohibitions,&rdquo; Jim notes.
&ldquo;For example, Australia has no tariffs on U.S. imports, but it has an outright ban on imports of U.S. beef. That&rsquo;s a non-tariff barrier that&rsquo;s worse than a tariff.
&ldquo;Trade wars can also morph into financial sanctions,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;which are a form of financial warfare &mdash; or even morph into a shooting war, such as the Royal Navy blockade of goods for Europe during the Napoleonic Wars.
&ldquo;One of the longest trade wars was during the Great Depression and beyond, beginning in 1925 with currency devaluations, then escalating in 1930 with the Smoot-Hawley tariffs and continuing throughout the 1930s with a major contraction in world trade, which segued into World War II.
&ldquo;That trade war wasn&rsquo;t really over until the early 1950s with the rise of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), one of the Bretton Woods institutions.
&ldquo;You could perceive that as a 25-year trade war (1925&ndash;1950) fought with currencies, tariffs, embargos and bullets,&rdquo; Jim says, concluding: &ldquo;Trade wars involve many factors other than tariffs and can last a long time.&rdquo;

[From Paradigm Publisher Matt Insley&rsquo;s iPhone: Just moments ago, Matt recorded an urgent tariff warning for our readers.
&ldquo;Because these tariffs are set to go into effect hours from now on April 9,&rdquo; says Matt, &ldquo;one thing has become extremely clear: People are confused.
&ldquo;Which is a dangerous thing to be in a market like this.&rdquo;
So eliminate all distractions, pay close attention and <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2429177">click here</a> as Matt explains how tariffs could impact your investments now&hellip; and for the decade to come.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Pessimism AND Optimism Dip
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) &mdash; the &ldquo;fear gauge" &mdash; approached 60 points on &ldquo;Liberation Day.&rdquo; Today? The VIX is hovering around 40 points&hellip; 
With that, stocks are settling down too &mdash; the three major U.S. stock indexes are all in the green today, in fact. At the time of writing, the tech-heavy Nasdaq has rebounded the most, up 3.20% to 16,100. Meanwhile, the Dow is up about 2.60%, just under 39,000, and the S&amp;P 500 is up 2.70% to 5,200.
Crude is slightly rallying likewise: A barrel of West Texas Intermediate is up 0.40% to $61. And precious metals are getting some love. Gold is up 1.65% to $3,022.70 per ounce, and the price of silver is up 1.75%, just over $30.
Crypto, however, is of two minds. Although Bitcoin is up 0.25% to $78,420, Ethereum is down 1.35% to $1,525.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Per the major economic number of the day, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) is out with its monthly Small Business Optimism Index. The headline number is 97.4 for March &mdash; marking the biggest month-over-month decline since June 2022. 
This drop has pushed the index below its 51-year average of 98, just three months after it reached a near-record high of 105.1 in December.
&ldquo;The implementation of new policy priorities has heightened the level of uncertainty among small-business owners over the past few months,&rdquo; says NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. Referring to tariffs as &lsquo;policy priorities&rsquo; is a creative choice&hellip; 
&ldquo;Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons,&rdquo; Mr. Dunkelberg continues.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6Ot1H4WysmaWp6xzvJGK0m/09782999409ac12b54c2e94eca1f6289/SmallBusiness.png" alt="Small Business" width="540px" />
&ldquo;Those small-business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall.&rdquo;
Labor continues to be a significant hurdle, as 40% of business owners report having unfilled job openings, a two-point increase compared to February. At the same time, just 12% of owners intend to add new jobs within the next three months &mdash; a three-point decline from February and the lowest figure since April 2024.
Obviously, the survey was taken before &ldquo;Liberation Day.&rdquo; Next month&rsquo;s survey should get really interesting.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />It&rsquo;s All Good in the Hood
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Five years from now, what&rsquo;s the one stock everyone will wish they bought today?&rdquo; That&rsquo;s the million-dollar question Paradigm&rsquo;s publisher Matt Insley asked our trading guru Greg Guenthner mere days ago.
&ldquo;Without hesitation, I gave him a point-blank answer,&rdquo; says Greg. &ldquo;That&rsquo;s how confident I am about one innovative company &mdash; Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD).
&ldquo;My reasoning: The Robinhood platform is maturing into an incredible one-stop shop for everything markets.&rdquo; Aside from a sleek new interface for both mobile and desktop users, there&rsquo;s also&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Robinhood Gold: A subscription program offering deposit bonuses and a 5% yield on cash</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>24-Hour Trading: Round-the-clock trading on major stocks and ETFs</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Crypto Wallet &amp; DeFi Expansion: A crypto wallet with plans to delve deeper into decentralized finance.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;Robinhood&rsquo;s laundry list of new features is growing so fast that I&rsquo;m having trouble keeping up,&rdquo; says Greg.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Is HOOD the market&rsquo;s next amazing success story?
&ldquo;I began to build my HOOD position in late 2022 when the stock was still trading in the $10 range,&rdquo; Greg says.
&ldquo;It wasn&rsquo;t a perfect entry,&rdquo; he admits. &ldquo;HOOD was hit especially hard because it was one of the later IPOs of the COVID era, launching in mid-2021.
&ldquo;The stock quickly cooled following some rabid buying during its first week on the market. By the time the dust cleared in 2022, HOOD had fallen as much as 90% off its IPO highs.
&ldquo;HOOD spent 2023 building its big base,&rdquo; he recalls. &ldquo;Since 2024, the stock has been on an absolute tear.&rdquo;
Greg&rsquo;s verdict? &ldquo;HOOD is a sleeping giant.
&ldquo;Not only do I think the stock could rally toward $100 by the end of this year,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;it&rsquo;s also the type of play that has that magic mix of growth and disruption that could propel it to market royalty.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;And just like that, Robinhood isn&rsquo;t just a trading app anymore,&rdquo; agrees Paradigm&rsquo;s DeFi expert Chris Campbell.
&ldquo;While banks are busy charging overdraft fees, giving you 0.01% interest in your savings account and upgrading their fax machines, Robinhood is building&hellip;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;A prediction market so you can bet on the Fed rate or the next president</li>
<li>A Cortex AI assistant &mdash; that&rsquo;s like ChatGPT if it went to Wharton and got jacked on Bloomberg data</li>
<li>A tokenized securities exchange that makes private equity look like public stocks.</li>
</ul>
&ldquo;Imagine,&rdquo; Chris continues, &ldquo;a marketplace where you don&rsquo;t just trade Bitcoin or Dogecoin, but where you buy tiny slices of private companies like Anthropic, SpaceX or the next world-changing company.&rdquo;
According to Chris? &ldquo;Robinhood&rsquo;s CEO Vladimir Tenev [understands] what 99% of Wall Street doesn&rsquo;t: The next trillion-dollar companies won&rsquo;t IPO.
&ldquo;The public markets are a bloated dinosaur,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;Compliance costs are sky-high. IPOs are down. Liquidity is trapped. But tokenization? That&rsquo;s the loophole.&rdquo;
In short: &ldquo;Robinhood is building prediction markets. They&rsquo;re turning AI into your personal wealth adviser. And they&rsquo;re working on tokenizing SpaceX.
&ldquo;Robinhood,&rdquo; Chris concludes, &ldquo;is the most forward-thinking fintech company in the world.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Flipper&hellip; or Flop? 
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Heineken&rsquo;s idea is simple: Stop doomscrolling on nights out with friends&hellip; and start interacting with actual humans.
To that end, a prototype phone case &mdash; The Flipper &mdash; uses AI and a robotic arm to flip your phone face down when it hears the word &ldquo;cheers.&rdquo;

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1xfDYbzjiMhTAIWMAeMSlG/f332c074917cd502f159c2d8211e7356/Flipper.png" alt="flipper" width="540px" />

Courtesy: Heineken
Heineken, in fact, isn&rsquo;t new to this anti-tech crusade; previous stunts include The Closer, a bottle opener that disables work apps.
On the flip side (couldn&rsquo;t resist), instead of The Flipper case for your smartphone, why not get an actual FLIP phone?
Problem solved&hellip; Cheers!
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;As far back as 2005 when my husband was receiving Avastin infusions for prostate cancer treatment, I realized that Medicare Parts B and D were not in sync,&rdquo; writes a regular reader and retired nurse, commenting on Dave&rsquo;s single-issue <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/luigi-mangione-isnt-the-problem">denunciation of U.S. health care.</a>
&ldquo;An infusion with Avastin administered in a medical provider&rsquo;s office cost $5,220. Instead, I was able to get a prescription for two treatments of Avastin filled at the pharmacy for $240 per treatment through Part D and take it to the physician&rsquo;s office. Since it was administered in a physician&rsquo;s office, it should not have even been covered under Part D.&nbsp;
&ldquo;I brought this to the attention of the only three members of the federal government with whom I had any influence. My information asking for such an error to be addressed fell on deaf ears. So much for trying to right a wrong!&rdquo;&nbsp;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;One of the many problems with U.S. health care is that providers are required by law to care for everyone (i.e. all possible medical treatments regardless of ability to pay),&rdquo; says another health care professional.
&ldquo;I would guess that a bunch of costs are related to &lsquo;Hail Mary&rsquo; procedures. Hail Marys include at least four categories: non-standard treatments, procedures/treatments shown to have a low likelihood of success, treatment to delay the moment of death or treatments on people permanently incognizant.
&ldquo;I once was forced to do imaging procedures on a 90-plus-year-old lady with bleeding from her colon who had not known who she was or where she was for over five years and was not in any pain until I violated her peace. (That's the other side of RIGHT TO LIFE.)
&ldquo;These costs should not be dumped on you and me.&rdquo;
Emily: To our contributor&rsquo;s point, end-of-life care consistently accounts for about 25% of total Medicare spending, a figure that has remained stable for decades.
Perhaps that&rsquo;s because, according to one study, almost 32% of Medicare beneficiaries who died in 2008, for instance, underwent surgery in their last year of life. And about one in five had surgery in their final month.
It&rsquo;s my opinion, U.S. health care would benefit from a dose of reality: Death is not always a medical failure. In fact, given time for compassionate communication, physician and patient might better align when it comes to end-of-life decisions.
Just my two cents&hellip;
Take care, and thanks to our contributors today!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

sjn-hero-img-03-18-24 Donald Trump and his conflict with China. Angry Trump showing hand, flag of the Republic of China in the background

shutterstock 1743988967

President Trump has doubled down on his trade war with China, threatening to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports. 

104%

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Day Three
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If you&rsquo;re looking for a near-term &ldquo;reason&rdquo; the stock-market meltdown is carrying into a third trading day, this should probably suffice.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2jMRwYiMBj0e64ussfwqx/d41bd4514525ed218739ace1a06397a9/CheddarFlow.png" alt="Cheddar Flow" width="540px" />
Asked by reporters yesterday if he was deliberately crashing the market, the president replied, &ldquo;No, that&rsquo;s not so.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The question wouldn&rsquo;t have been necessary were it not for the fact that on his Truth Social platform, he reposted a link to a TikTok video asserting that he is crashing the market on purpose.
The video describes a &ldquo;wild chess move&rdquo; aimed at &ldquo;forcing&rdquo; the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates so that the cost of financing Uncle Sam&rsquo;s $36 trillion national debt will come down.
At the risk of repeating ourselves, companies can adjust to bad news &mdash; but they can&rsquo;t handle uncertainty.
The president giving oxygen to the notion that he&rsquo;s deliberately crashing the market? Much uncertainty.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Elon Musk helped muddy the waters over the weekend, too.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7nZfpPEkbhxXtCzxXwa0mo/4e5b51f27ae96449680421135bfbb87b/TelsaTweet.png" alt="Tesla Tweet" width="540px" />
Musk&rsquo;s remarks prompted further social-media speculation &mdash; some of it from hard-core MAGA types &mdash; that the actual endgame for the tariff regime is free trade with everyone.
So&hellip; the tariff to end all tariffs?
Shades of President Woodrow Wilson over a century ago, promising American entry into World War I would be &ldquo;the war to end all wars.&rdquo; It didn&rsquo;t work out that way&hellip;
&ldquo;I suspect that Trump wants something in the middle,&rdquo; says Jim Rickards&rsquo; senior analyst Dan Amoss. &ldquo;As in, give our industrial base a fighting chance (because it was on the path of drowning completely), while still being open to being nice to trading partners who lower their trade barriers and tariffs.&rdquo;
Key point for this coming week: &ldquo;The sooner Trump makes a &lsquo;good&rsquo; example of a country that commits to being more open to our exports, the sooner we&rsquo;ll get a bounce in the market.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Is It Really 2008 Again?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The media is falling all over itself to compare the present moment with the 2008 financial crisis. A better analogue is a much less scary episode a decade later.
&ldquo;It definitely feels similar to 2008,&rdquo; hedge fund manager Ran Zhou tells The New York Times &mdash; which says it spoke throughout the weekend with &ldquo;bankers, executives and traders&rdquo; who said &ldquo;they felt flashbacks to the 2007&ndash;08 global financial crisis, one that took down a number of Wall Street&rsquo;s giants.&rdquo;
But a more relevant comparison comes from the first Trump administration, says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta.
In January 2018, Trump ventured to the World Economic Forum&rsquo;s annual shindig in Davos, Switzerland &mdash; and signaled he was about to launch a trade war.
There&rsquo;s a lot going on in this chart from that period &mdash; but note the top circle showing how the S&amp;P 500 sold off 12% in only a few days.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/HupaDlx9lGlTj3ruPSySv/8673920fa5f609655cfdae82024e0421/Chart1.png" alt="chart 1" width="540px" />
Note also the lower circle. &ldquo;The bottom chart is the relative strength index (or RSI), which is a measure of investor enthusiasm,&rdquo; says Enrique.
&ldquo;A high number (above 70, the red line on the chart) shows investor exuberance. A low number (below 30, the green line) shows investor pessimism. Low numbers can be very good buy signals.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;There are a lot of similarities between this sell-off and what we are seeing today,&rdquo; Enrique continues.
&ldquo;Back in 2018, the stock market went from a very overbought position &mdash; distance from the 50-day moving average and high RSI &mdash; to immediately being oversold.
&ldquo;The S&amp;P 500 traded down to the 200-day moving average and bounced +9% and back above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
&ldquo;From there, it would retest the 200-day moving average and then trade in a very choppy manner for three months before settling down.
&ldquo;After that, the stock market went to new highs.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />So what about now? The setup is similar, though not identical.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4izAyAcOjylTOHAaoXSe2D/1600886a119bdeb2c5115cf495901f40/Chart2.png" alt="chart 2" width="540px" />
&ldquo;We had a very overbought stock market in the months leading up to the tariff talk,&rdquo; Enrique says. &ldquo;This then resulted in a rapid sell-off where the S&amp;P 500 fell 10% and traded below the 200-day moving average. Then there was a multiday rally of 5% and back to that 200-day moving average.
&ldquo;On the charts, you can clearly see some similarities and a few key differences. This time, the situation has taken longer to develop. The sell-off has also done more damage with the S&amp;P 500 trading below the 200-day moving average and staying below it &mdash; especially after the big recent announcement.&rdquo;
Which makes sense when you acknowledge the tariff regime this time is much more ambitious.
&ldquo;The stock market is accurately responding to the magnitude of the difference,&rdquo; Enrique tells us. The point is that in both instances, the tariff regime was more ambitious than Wall Street was counting on.
Back in 2018, &ldquo;We saw that it took three months for the market to digest the news,&rdquo; he concludes. &ldquo;The same could happen here, if not longer.
&ldquo;While this will be painful for long-term investors, it will provide many short-term opportunities for traders.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Tariffs Are Just the Excuse
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />While the mainstream is keen to pin the blame on tariffs&hellip; and the sell-off did get underway after the &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; announcement Wednesday&hellip; that&rsquo;s not the whole story.
From a chart standpoint, Enrique says the market coming into early 2025 was extremely &ldquo;overbought.&rdquo;
And at the same time, stock valuations were extremely stretched by historical standards.
There&rsquo;s a ratio called the &ldquo;Buffett indicator,&rdquo; popularized as you might imagine by Warren Buffett. It&rsquo;s the market cap of every publicly traded company divided by America&rsquo;s annual economic output. Major peaks in this indicator appeared just before the dot-com bust in early 2000 and the vicious-if-orderly bear market of 2022.
After 2022, the indicator recovered to an all-time high in February &mdash; which coincided with the market&rsquo;s all-time high. There&rsquo;s a reason ol&rsquo; Warren was sitting on a record amount of cash late last year and early this.
Other measures of valuation like the &ldquo;Shiller P/E&rdquo; were also overstretched.
The point is that the market was the proverbial bubble waiting for a pin to show up &mdash; a major bank failure, a war, a natural disaster wiping out critical infrastructure.
The pin just happened to be tariffs.
And if it&rsquo;s the prospect of a recession that suddenly has Wall Street&rsquo;s &ldquo;professionals&rdquo; worried&hellip; well, Paradigm&rsquo;s macro maven Jim Rickards has been warning since Election Day that Trump would likely inherit a recession resulting from the excesses of the Biden years.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Roller-coaster ride&rdquo; doesn&rsquo;t even begin to describe the market action today.
The S&amp;P 500 plunged another 3.5% on the open this morning&hellip; only to shoot back into positive territory within the first hour of trading. Evidently rumors began to circulate that the White House was looking at a 90-day pause in the tariff regime. Then the White House said those rumors were &ldquo;fake news&rdquo; and the market dropped back into the red.
At last check the S&amp;P 500 is down about a half percent on the day at 5,051 &mdash; right around where it was in early May last year. It will surely be different by the time you read this. Even now, news is coming in that the European Union is ready to negotiate. Volatility is the name of the game for the moment.
Speaking of volatility, the market&rsquo;s &ldquo;fear gauge&rdquo; known as the VIX is up again today, over 51 &mdash; approaching the spike high seen during <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/apology-from-tokyo">a market scare last August</a>.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And then there&rsquo;s the volatility in asset classes beyond stocks.
Oil sank under $60 when electronic trading opened for a new week on Sunday night. The last time crude traded under $60 was around this time four years ago, a time when the oil price was recovering from COVID lows and a majority of Americans were still subject to indoor mask mandates.
A barrel of West Texas Intermediate has since rallied above $61. There&rsquo;s no major news of escalating geopolitical tension &mdash; although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting the White House today. The last time he paid a call on Trump, Trump announced his plans to <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/9-11-x-10">&ldquo;take over&rdquo;</a> the Gaza Strip &mdash; so stand by for some war drums to roil the markets anew.
Gold sank below $3,000 overnight, staged a recovery over $3,000, and now is a few cents below that round number. Silver, on the other hand, has looked strong, recovering the $30 level. Likewise the mining stocks are resilient, the HUI index slightly in the green.
Bitcoin&rsquo;s resilience of last week did not last through the weekend. It tanked to nearly $75,000 at one point &mdash; although at last check it&rsquo;s back above $79k.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And now a grim chuckle in light of the stock market action &mdash; courtesy of the meme-o-sphere and the Star Wars franchise. (Start at the bottom&hellip;)
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1SKrt7FRvxUDRvYyUoggVa/f0936de3761dec1ab826fe6b0ea30271/KelseyTWeet.png" alt="Kelsey Tweet" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: The Health Care Cartel
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;My girlfriend works for UnitedHealthcare,&rdquo; a reader writes after our issue-length exploration of the health care cartel <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/luigi-mangione-isnt-the-problem">last week</a>.
&ldquo;She received a 20 cent raise this year. It is a very high-stress job and she gets paid so poorly that I have to provide her funds so she can get a new car after about 10-plus years of driving the same vehicle. I have zero empathy for the clown that got whacked.&nbsp;
&ldquo;There is a real disconnect between those subturds and the lifestyle that they live (he was getting no less than $20 million total a year in pay/benefits etc.) and how the general public is getting the shaft. The new CEO is even worse and is in the process of offshoring all of those jobs. When he came in he told everyone you can choose an early retirement or wait and see if you get fired. That is just the truth.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I could write pages about this subject,&rdquo; writes a member of our Omega Wealth Circle, &ldquo;but I will limit myself to saying that the FDA and other regulatory agencies that are supposed to watch out for us are a perfect example of regulatory capture, where the industries they are supposed to regulate own and operate the agencies.
&ldquo;I wish RFK Jr. the best in reforming this mess, and I do think he largely understands the problem, but it will not be easy, since the medical care industry basically owns Congress.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Good one, Dave!&rdquo; says our final correspondent.
&ldquo;We're aware that medical expenses are ridiculous. Great examples. Now give us some reasons why. Ways in which the medical cartel operates. (pun intended)
&ldquo;Like 11 million illegal immigrants getting free medical.
&ldquo;Or trial lawyers looking for &lsquo;the Big Rain.&rsquo;
&ldquo;Remember &lsquo;tort reform&rsquo;? I think the first Bush mentioned it and was nearly buried. There is a reason the American trial lawyers association is a main contributor to the Democratic Party.
&ldquo;Also, the American Medical Association has a big say in which and how many new doctors are allowed.
&ldquo;Keep up the good work!&rdquo;
Dave responds: Those are all factors, yes, but the real problem is all the complex cost-shifting schemes I alluded to.
They go by various names &mdash; including &ldquo;uncompensated care&rdquo; and &ldquo;PPO repricing.&rdquo; The constraints of space don&rsquo;t allow us to get into that today. Suffice to say the story is more complex than the usual right-wing whipping boys you cite.
Which reminds me: Never forget that the seeds for Obamacare &mdash; including the horrid &ldquo;individual mandate&rdquo; upheld by the Supreme Court &mdash; were <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2010/apr/01/barack-obama/obama-says-heritage-foundation-source-health-excha/">first planted</a> by the conservative Heritage Foundation.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

5 bullets hero Economic emergency/drowning

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If you’re looking for a near-term “reason” the stock-market 

No, It’s Not 2008

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“Every panic feels different, but they all act the same,” says hedge fund veteran and Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta. 

Three Red Lines for the Stock Market

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The president’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement has come and gone… Our task today is to do a damage assessment in the markets. 

The Day After “Liberation Day” 

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Under normal conditions of capitalist advancement, you get progressively better results for progressively lower cost… So what’s up with U.S. health care? 