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Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

The problem we’ve lamented in these daily missives for years: The best time to get into an IPO… is before it goes public.

It’s a Rigged Game

Minerals0624

A recent Senate proposal is a small part of the Trump administration’s plan to tap into the mineral wealth on federal lands, valued at up to $150 trillion.

3 Million Acres

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Gold Resilient
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The market reaction to Washington&rsquo;s entry into the Israel-Iran war on the side of Israel began&hellip; quietly. Too quietly.
The reaction in stocks&hellip; bonds&hellip; commodities&hellip; the dollar&hellip; all muted. The price of crude spiked 4% when trading opened for the week last night, only to give it all up.
Gold is up $15 as we write to $3,383 &mdash; a very modest move, especially by recent standards.
In a dispatch to a select group of his subscribers on Friday, Paradigm&rsquo;s macro maven Jim Rickards passed along a chart from the Financial Times.
&ldquo;What do you think is the highest-performing major asset this year so far?&rdquo; he asked rhetorically. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s gold!&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4d2XFUrOU4D03MzKKw47aO/f491bea620584e5f62c8d92084f68676/GoldChart.png" alt="gold chart" width="540px" />
Gold&rsquo;s jump in the first half of 2025 reflects what was already a world full of uncertainty going into this past weekend.
&ldquo;Relax if you don't own gold yet,&rdquo; Jim advises. &ldquo;This rally is just getting started. Central banks are the big buyers. The retail frenzy stage is still $5,000 away. So there is still time to get involved if it suits you.
&ldquo;Remember &mdash; I recommend 10% allocation to gold in your portfolio but higher or lower percentages have a place depending on risk tolerance. So season to taste.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Lately, gold mining stocks have been outperforming the metal itself. 
The gold price has moved sideways for the last two months. Meanwhile, the HUI index of mining stocks jumped 10.3% during the same time span. This outperformance continues today &mdash; gold up a third of a percent while the HUI is up 1.6%.
Individual names in the sector have exploded far higher than that during 2025. Year-to-date, Helius Minerals grew 509%... Goldgroup Mining has done even better, rising 523%... while BCM Resources leaped 660%.
Little-known names like these are already moving partly in response to the Trump administration&rsquo;s plans to tap the vast mineral bounty lying beneath federal lands, valued at up to $150 trillion. Those plans lie at the heart of Jim&rsquo;s &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; thesis.
That said, Jim believes the real mining boom &ldquo;hasn&rsquo;t even started yet.&rdquo;
As readers of Jim&rsquo;s Situation Report already know, Jim believes Donald Trump will make a decisive move tomorrow. &ldquo;And when this event unfolds, it will unleash Phase II of the American Birthright.&rdquo;
See, when natural-resource stocks go on a tear, the most lucrative gains usually come during Phase II.
<a id="2"></a>
Jim&rsquo;s seen it more than once during his career: &ldquo;I&rsquo;m talking about gains that could be 10X&hellip; 20X&hellip; and I&rsquo;m not kidding, even 100X bigger&rdquo; than the examples we just cited.
Readers of The Situation Report are already clued in to three specific investments Jim believes will generate those Phase II gains &mdash; starting when the president makes his move tomorrow. If you&rsquo;re not among them, <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2452715">you can follow this link and Jim will start getting you up to speed</a>.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Make IRAN Great Again?!
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Seems an awful lot of Orwell references are flying around the interwebz the last 48 hours&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3vQLPBqVhiOB52uBm4Zwj0/64c06f95ef157eeddfbd34747e872932/SeanTweet.png" alt="sean tweet" width="540px" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5Z6RAzxG13TfoNKY3O6B51/933a1c33f864dbd51231fe19b08a0b1f/MichaelTweet06-23.png" alt="michael tweet" width="540px" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/vWLqTaKfQZOLxyeA2YUlL/9457ad252fd40144a4d7a23c2a3fc47a/Iran.png" alt="iran" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Then again, maybe Kafka is more appropriate? 
After the U.S. airstrikes on Saturday night, the president said Iran&rsquo;s nuclear program was &ldquo;completely and totally obliterated.&rdquo;
Which sounds like the objectives of the airstrikes were met. War&rsquo;s over before it began, right?
But then he also said Iran &ldquo;must now make peace.&rdquo; And he didn&rsquo;t lay out what he envisioned as the terms of a peace.
On the Sunday morning talk show circuit, Vice President Vance went out of his way to say &ldquo;we&rsquo;re not at war with Iran, we&rsquo;re at war with Iran&rsquo;s nuclear program.&rdquo;
But if the program has been &ldquo;completely and totally obliterated&rdquo;... war&rsquo;s over before it began, right?
Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth both emphasized that Washington&rsquo;s issue is with Iran&rsquo;s nuclear program and the objective is not &ldquo;regime change.&rdquo;
And then the president beclowned both of them late in the afternoon&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5G0uPs9SdEF4ypUY7yxCSK/efe28e40795337c29b6a9f990f51cf1e/TrumpTweet-06-23.png" alt="trump tweet" width="540px" />
Wow.
Does it seem to you as if America is great again (MAGA)? Or healthy again (MAHA)?
No? Well, too bad, so sad. Donald Trump has bigger fish to fry than your well-being, peasant.
What&rsquo;s old is new again: &ldquo;To wage war on Iran,&rdquo; writes the independent journalist Aaron Mate, &ldquo;Trump and his allies have employed the traditional Iraq WMD playbook of ignoring or manipulating the available evidence to fear-monger about a foreign state marked for regime change.&rdquo;
However, there are a couple of new twists&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Unlike the Iraq war, where the fraudulent case for invading was mostly concocted in-house, Trump has outsourced the job to Israel, while not even pretending to care about public opinion or congressional approval,&rdquo; Mate continues.
There&rsquo;s a lot to unpack in that one sentence.
We said <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/can-russia-halt-trumps-war#2">in Friday&rsquo;s edition</a> it seemed the White House put more stock in the assessment of Israel&rsquo;s Mossad intelligence agency than of its own intelligence services.
That impression has since been confirmed by independent reporters, both left- and right-leaning.
At the leftist Grayzone site, the fearless husband-and-wife team of Max Blumenthal and Anya Parampil report: &ldquo;An official in the administration of President Donald Trump has told The Grayzone that CIA Director John Ratcliffe and U.S. CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla have become vehicles for Israel&rsquo;s Mossad and military as they seek to manipulate the U.S. into attacking Iran. The Trump official referred to Ratcliffe as &lsquo;Mossad&rsquo;s stenographer.&rsquo;
&ldquo;According to the official, Ratcliffe and Kurilla have pressured Trump to join Israel&rsquo;s war more directly by regurgitating overblown briefings they received from the Israeli military and Mossad director David Barnea &mdash; but without informing the president that the intelligence was derived from a foreign third party.&rdquo;
Concurs Sean Davis at the conservative Federalist site: &ldquo;I have also been told by current and former senior national security officials that CIA claims about Iran&rsquo;s nuclear progress come directly from Mossad &mdash; &lsquo;verbatim talking points&rsquo; was one phrase I heard &mdash; and don&rsquo;t include U.S. intelligence on the matter.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Meanwhile, the American people and their representatives in Congress just don&rsquo;t count.
This isn&rsquo;t the first time a U.S. president has cut out Congress from having any say in a major military campaign &mdash; not even a mealymouthed &ldquo;resolution&rdquo; or &ldquo;authorization.&rdquo; Barack Obama did the same with Libya &mdash; a regime-change op, we&rsquo;ll remind you &mdash; in 2011.
Trump apologists who objected to an American air campaign last week are justifying it this week by making the excuse that no ground troops are involved. &ldquo;One and done,&rdquo; tweeted former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida). &ldquo;Trump the Peacemaker!&rdquo;
Whatever you need to say to feel better about yourself, dude&hellip;
As for the public, this much is clear: It&rsquo;s not 2001 or 2003 anymore.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3HCpJmZTgpZ5c7yPtCVq8b/57aa1a595cc055ce189db9dd2eeb3f66/PollingUSA.png" alt="polling usa" width="540px" />
We conclude this foray into Orwell (and/or Kafka) with an observation from historian and author Stephen Wertheim. Apparently we&rsquo;re supposed to believe that Iran&rsquo;s leaders are so crazy that they&rsquo;d try to nuke a nuclear-armed Israel&hellip; but also so rational that they won&rsquo;t retaliate against American targets after an American bombing.
Which brings us to whatever&rsquo;s next&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Blockade the Strait of Hormuz?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Understandably there&rsquo;s much buzz about whether Tehran will move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz &mdash; the slender waterway through which about 20% of global oil trade moves.
Iran&rsquo;s parliament voted yesterday in favor, but the final decision lies with the country&rsquo;s supreme national security council.
Yesterday Secretary of State Marco Rubio pleaded with Beijing to lean on Tehran to prevent that outcome. "I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them [Iran] about that, because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil."
Someone needs to inform Rubio of what we mentioned three weeks ago: A rail line just opened for business linking China to Iran by way of four other countries.
No, it can&rsquo;t fully substitute for China&rsquo;s seaborne oil imports from Iran: The line runs through several of the central Asian &ldquo;stan&rdquo; countries &mdash; &ldquo;prone to instability, conflict and terrorism,&rdquo; says the South China Morning Post. Also, not all of the tracks are the same width &mdash; which adds up to &ldquo;time-consuming and expensive cargo transfers.&rdquo;
Still, all told, Iran accounts for about 7% of China&rsquo;s oil consumption. China can probably handle the hit from a closure of the Strait.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As the day wears on, the Iranian military has lobbed missiles at the giant U.S. airbase in Qatar.
Qatar&rsquo;s defense ministry says there&rsquo;ve been no injuries. The oil price has tumbled 4.4% from Friday&rsquo;s levels &mdash; back to $70.59 at last check.
At this time, the narrative seems to be that Tehran sought to stage a performative retaliation that didn&rsquo;t really put anyone at risk &mdash; much as it did in early 2020 after Trump ordered the drone assassination of Gen. Qasem Soleimani.
By the same token the major U.S. stock indexes are all in the green &mdash; the S&amp;P 500 up two-thirds of a percent and back over 6,000.
Gold is holding onto its modest gains; silver is outperforming, up 20 cents and back over $36.
We daresay the story isn&rsquo;t over yet. As Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute tweets, &ldquo;Israel will continue to strike Iran and vice versa, and as long as that is the case, the Israelis will continue to put relentless pressure on Trump to join the war in various ways.&rdquo;
The bottom line is what I&rsquo;ve said more than once this month: However many hedges against geopolitical risk you hold in your portfolio, it&rsquo;s probably not enough.
That means oil, gold, silver, copper, uranium &mdash; tangible wealth and the companies that produce it.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Grim Chuckle
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The meme-o-verse has obliged with a visual representation of what your editor was describing earlier&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5DU7ks7U5XulAmTEDFfgop/5e09561f11de324d9e9331c4aba3b141/Comic-trump-iran.png" alt="comic trump iran" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: MAGA Betrayal
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As an expanded war loomed Friday &mdash; <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/can-russia-halt-trumps-war">we cited</a> the legendary journalist Seymour Hersh as saying Washington would enter the fray over the weekend &mdash; a reader wrote in&hellip;
&ldquo;One is reminded of the quote, attributed to Emma Goldman, as Trump&rsquo;s betrayal of his MAGA voters seems nigh: &lsquo;If voting changed anything, they would make it illegal.&rsquo;&rdquo;
Dave responds: Key word there is &ldquo;attributed.&rdquo; We did the research on the eve of the 2020 election and as near as we can tell, neither Emma Goldman nor Mark Twain ever said it.
Doesn&rsquo;t make it any less true. Or as the economist and podcaster Tom Woods is wont to quip: No matter who you vote for, you always end up with John McCain.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Iran

Does it seem to you as if America is great again (MAGA)? Or healthy again (MAHA)? How priorities have changed only five months into the Trump 47 term.

Make IRAN Great Again? 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Circle Gets the Square
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the company behind the USDC stablecoin, just pulled off one of the most explosive IPOs in decades. 
On June 5, 2025, the company priced its IPO at $31 per share, then watched as shares more than doubled on their first day of trading, soaring as high as $103.75 at one point before closing at $83.23 &mdash; a 168% pop above the IPO price
The next day, the stock jumped another 30% to close at $107.70, and demand hasn&rsquo;t let up since. At latest check, shares have surged over 600% from the IPO price. A meteoric rise by any metric.
<ul>
<li>Jay Ritter, a leading IPO expert, confirmed that Circle&rsquo;s two-day moonshot was the biggest for any major IPO since 1980. That&rsquo;s the kind of windfall most retail investors only dream about.</li>
</ul>
It&rsquo;s not every day a company comes out of nowhere and shakes up Wall Street and crypto in one fell swoop. But that&rsquo;s exactly what Circle did &mdash; and if you blinked, you might have missed it.
What&rsquo;s fueling this frenzy? Circle is at the center of the fast-growing stablecoin market, with USDC now the seventh-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, pegged at about $61 billion.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Circle now stands alongside Coinbase as one of the few pure-play crypto firms to list in the U.S., and its success is seen as a bellwether for the entire sector.
The IPO itself was a blockbuster. Clearly, the appetite for digital assets and fintech is back&mdash;and it&rsquo;s stronger than ever. Circle&rsquo;s vision, according to CEO Jeremy Allaire, is to &ldquo;create a new financial infrastructure based on the internet that could fundamentally transform the use of money.&rdquo;
But this isn&rsquo;t just about Circle. The company&rsquo;s success is a signal. According to Lynn Martin, president of the NYSE Group: &ldquo;I see the Circle IPO as a bellwether for the IPO markets this year, not just for crypto listings.&rdquo;&nbsp;
Which brings us to an important point: If you&rsquo;re a regular investor, you probably missed out on the &ldquo;ground floor&rdquo; opportunity. The real winners in this story were the insiders and big-money investors who got in before the IPO.
By the time shares hit the open market, the price had already rocketed. That&rsquo;s the reality of the IPO game &mdash; the biggest gains are reserved for those who get in early, before the company goes public.
So what&rsquo;s next? Circle&rsquo;s story is a reminder that the best opportunities often come before the headlines. If you want a shot at the next big thing, you need to be in the know &mdash; and sometimes, you need to act before the rest of the world catches on.

Now, Paradigm&rsquo;s venture capital veteran James Altucher says this week you have a chance to invest in the next &ldquo;SUPER IPO&rdquo;&hellip; Before shares trade on a major U.S. exchange.
James has identified a company that is developing one of the most mission-critical products since the birth of the internet.
As we speak, it&rsquo;s preparing to go public on America&rsquo;s premier tech exchange. And unlike most &ldquo;IPO&rdquo; setups&hellip;
You can buy shares today BEFORE the company officially goes public, maybe in a matter of days. And you don&rsquo;t need to have millions of dollars or any special connections.
There is a secret backdoor in the IPO market &mdash; and through it, you can invest in this company now while it&rsquo;s trading for just $3 per share.
<a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2454281">James explains everything here.</a> But he highly recommends you take action today &mdash; before the backdoor on this offer closes Friday at 4 p.m. ET.
<a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2454281">Click here</a> to see why James is so bullish on this company.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />A Market Memo: &ldquo;Headlines Fade&rdquo; 
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;If you turn on the mainstream media right now, the Israel/Iran conflict is dominating the headlines,&rdquo; says editor Davis Wilson at our sister e-letter The Million MIssion. 
For instance, when the story first hit the news cycle: &ldquo;Oil prices spiked. The S&amp;P 500 pulled back. And naturally, people [asked]: Is this the start of something bigger? 
&ldquo;However, we&rsquo;ve seen this playbook before,&rdquo; Davis notes. &ldquo;It starts with breaking news: a drone strike, a missile launch, a shocking assassination. Oil rallies. Defense stocks surge. Broader equities pull back as headlines scream about escalation and global instability.
&ldquo;But zoom out,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;and the pattern becomes clear: These dips have consistently turned into buying opportunities.&rdquo; Here&rsquo;s a sketch of a few major geopolitical events from the past decade&hellip;
<ol>
<li>Russia invades Crimea (2014): &ldquo;Russia&rsquo;s annexation of Crimea in early 2014 was met with global outrage,&rdquo; David notes. &ldquo;Sanctions were imposed. Markets dipped. But the S&amp;P 500? It was down briefly in March, then went on to finish the year up over 11%. Investors who bought the fear were rewarded within months&rdquo;</li>
<li>U.S.-China trade war (2018&ndash;2019): &ldquo;While not a kinetic conflict, the trade war was a geopolitical standoff with real economic consequences. Tariffs were slapped on billions in goods. Markets dropped several times on tweets alone. But the trade war didn&rsquo;t break the bull market,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;it merely created volatility within a broader uptrend&rdquo;</li>
<li>Russia invades Ukraine (2022): &ldquo;This was the biggest geopolitical shock since 9/11,&rdquo; Davis emphasizes. &ldquo;Markets initially dropped &mdash; especially European and global names. But by the end of 2022, U.S. stocks had largely priced in the new reality. Energy prices spiked and then fell back. Defense stocks rallied. The S&amp;P 500 found its footing and moved on.&rdquo;</li>
</ol>
Not to mention multiple &ldquo;periods of heightened conflict in the Middle East [often] cause brief market wobbles, especially in energy,&rdquo; says Davis. &ldquo;But they rarely create lasting damage to U.S. equities. Unless oil prices remain elevated for months (which is rare), these are noise in the long run.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;So why does the market keep bouncing back?&rdquo; Davis posits: &ldquo;Three reasons&hellip;
&ldquo;Markets price in worst-case scenarios quickly,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;When geopolitical news breaks, traders often assume escalation. But once the situation de-escalates (or fails to spiral) stocks rebound as uncertainty fades.&rdquo;
Next: &ldquo;U.S. companies are resilient. Most geopolitical issues don&rsquo;t directly affect corporate earnings. Even during oil shocks or military conflicts, consumer spending and business operations often go untouched.&rdquo;
Last: &ldquo;&lsquo;Buy the dip&rsquo; is embedded. Investors have been rewarded for 15 years for stepping in on weakness.&rdquo;
Davis&rsquo; key takeaway: &ldquo;Don&rsquo;t panic. Don&rsquo;t chase headlines. Watch sentiment &mdash; not news anchors. If geopolitical tensions rise and stocks dip sharply, that&rsquo;s often the setup for a sharp rebound.
&ldquo;Avoid piling into defense stocks after they&rsquo;ve run. Instead, buy what&rsquo;s unfairly punished: the high-quality stocks I highlight &mdash; Nvidia, Meta, Uber &mdash; not because they&rsquo;re immune to news cycles, but because they rebound the fastest when the fear fades.
&ldquo;Remember: Fear drives short-term volatility. Fundamentals drive long-term gains.&rdquo; Davis advises: &ldquo;Stay calm. Stay patient. And when others panic &mdash; get ready to strike.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Taking a look at my screen this afternoon: The Big Board is up 0.80% to 43,320. As for the other two major U.S. indexes, the techie Nasdaq is up 0.70% to 20,110 while the S&amp;P 500 is up 0.65% to 6,130.
Turning to the commodities complex, the price of oil is up 1.50% to $65.90 for a barrel of WTI. Precious metal? Gold&rsquo;s barely hanging out in the green territory: up 0.10% to $3,346.40 per ounce. But silver&rsquo;s up 1.60% to $36.58.
The crypto market&rsquo;s hit a speedbump today: Bitcoin&rsquo;s down 0.40% to $107,320, but Ethereum&rsquo;s taking a breather at $2,430.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />DeFi: Code, Crypto and Clarity
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;In the 1990s, the U.S. government classified encryption &mdash; or &lsquo;crypto&rsquo; &mdash; as a weapon,&rdquo; says James Altucher&rsquo;s chief analyst Chris Campbell. &ldquo;If you were writing strong encryption code &mdash; PGP, RSA &mdash; you were, legally speaking, an arms dealer,&rdquo; he adds.
&ldquo;It was America&rsquo;s first crypto war,&rdquo; says Chris. &ldquo;At its core was one question: Is code speech? The people building encryption said yes. The government said no.
&ldquo;The turning point was the Bernstein v. U.S. Department of Justice case (1995&ndash;1999) &mdash; a landmark legal battle that established code as protected speech under the First Amendment.
&ldquo;Fast-forward 30 years and we saw crypto wars 2.0,&rdquo; Chris notes. DeFi platforms were investigated, and Coinbase, for example, was threatened regularly. Even self-custody was under attack.
&ldquo;That was the Gary Gensler era,&rdquo; says Chris. &ldquo;Gensler didn&rsquo;t believe in clarity. He believed in ambiguity. Not because he was stupid. But because ambiguity is a tool. If nobody knows the rules, everyone&rsquo;s guilty.&rdquo;
But that all changed this month&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The SEC&rsquo;s &ldquo;DeFi and the American Spirit&rdquo; roundtable was &ldquo;the most important crypto discussion to ever take place in America,&rdquo; Chris emphasizes.
&ldquo;SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said it plainly: &lsquo;DeFi is as American as apple pie.&rsquo; He said self-custody is a right. He said code is speech. He said your constitutional freedoms don&rsquo;t vanish when you log on to the internet.
&ldquo;He even floated an &lsquo;innovation exemption,&rsquo;&rdquo; Chris continues, &ldquo;a fast-track for blockchain projects that play by some basic rules but don&rsquo;t want to die in paperwork hell.
&ldquo;For the first time publicly, the SEC acknowledged:
<ul>
<li>Bitcoin mining is not a security (already assumed, now confirmed)</li>
<li>Staking is also not a security, including staking-as-a-service.</li>
</ul>
[FYI: Staking is the process of locking up cryptocurrency in a blockchain network to help validate transactions and earn rewards, while staking-as-a-service allows users to delegate their tokens to a third party that handles the technical requirements of staking on their behalf.]
&ldquo;This clears a major cloud over Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and basically all major blockchains,&rdquo; Chris says.
&ldquo;Crypto is finally on track to get what we&rsquo;ve needed all along: clarity. Staking clarity. Token clarity. Self-custody protection. And actual, written laws &mdash; so builders can stop looking over their shoulder and start shipping code.
&ldquo;This isn&rsquo;t bullish. It&rsquo;s nuclear&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;But how do we find the real hidden gems? Here&rsquo;s one strategy James and I are using right now,&rdquo; says Chris.
&ldquo;First, don&rsquo;t follow the noise. Follow the fees,&rdquo; he says. &ldquo;The real plays right now aren&rsquo;t the ones trending on Twitter &mdash; they&rsquo;re the ones printing cash in the background.
&ldquo;They&rsquo;re small, often overlooked, but they&rsquo;re raking in millions in protocol revenue from trading, lending, staking and stablecoin systems.
&ldquo;And the kicker: A lot of that revenue is flowing directly back to token holders. Real yield. Not inflation.
&ldquo;To find the real under-the-radar plays,&rdquo; Chris concludes, &ldquo;look for rising usage, sticky users and weird new niches &mdash; like tokenized yield or DeFi-native forex &mdash; that the big names haven&rsquo;t fully claimed.
&ldquo;If you can catch these before they go mainstream, you&rsquo;re not just early. You&rsquo;re ahead of the curve, while everyone else is still trying to figure out what&rsquo;s happening.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Why Millionaires Feel &ldquo;Meh&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Forget caviar and Champagne &mdash; millionaires are living downright ho-hum lives these days. 
The world now boasts about 52 million &ldquo;everyday&rdquo; millionaires, folks with between $1&ndash;5 million in net worth, according to a recent UBS report. That&rsquo;s four times more than in 2000. (Adjusting for inflation? The number of millionaires has more than doubled.)
In the U.S. alone, new millionaires are being minted at a rate of about 1,000 per day. The country is home to nearly 24 million millionaires, accounting for about 40% of the global total &mdash; four times more than runner-up China.
But here&rsquo;s the twist: Most of these folks don&rsquo;t feel rich. &ldquo;Millionaires are no longer Monopoly caricatures,&rdquo; says Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s shifted to encompass a very large portion of the population.&rdquo;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4BdwhuHRDNgdeTJqgZ2LQV/ea4ff445ac961d3faa5c02a9e6832a99/hotdogs.png" alt="hotdog" width="540px" />
Much of this wealth surge comes from soaring home prices and an aging population. A record 39.3% of Americans own their homes outright, and over half of these are at retirement age.
Boomers, in particular, have benefited from tax perks like the mortgage-interest deduction and tax-free 401(k) contributions.
Yet many U.S. millionaires are surprised to learn about their status. &ldquo;I know we&rsquo;re technically &lsquo;millionaires&rsquo; with our home equity but it isn&rsquo;t really helpful for monthly expenses,&rdquo; says Alisha Ard, a stay-at-home mom in Ventura County, California, where the median home costs more than $800,000.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s honestly hard to describe how incredibly pedestrian and normal our lives are,&rdquo; says Glen Czaplewski of Denver, echoing a common sentiment among this new class of millionaires.
&ldquo;Everyone is a lot better off,&rdquo; Donovan notes, &ldquo;but relatively speaking, people don&rsquo;t necessarily feel that.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Speaking of &ldquo;Meh&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;When Trump won the election, I sold California muni bonds, put 90% into &lsquo;drill baby drill&rsquo; Chevron and 10% into Barrick Gold; dividend reinvest on both. Happy, happy,&rdquo; responds an optimistic contributor to our question yesterday: To what extent do you let politics drive your investing decisions?
Emily: Thank you to the one reader who responded&hellip; Where is everyone? Enjoying an afternoon siesta? Summer vacay?
Nonetheless, our reader&rsquo;s response reflects the <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/its-a-rigged-game#4">partisan gap</a> in market optimism we mentioned yesterday &mdash; now the widest gap ever recorded, with Republicans far more bullish than Democrats
As Dave mentioned, investors are increasingly letting politics guide their choices. But beware, write Neil Howe and associate Christian Ford at the Demography Unplugged Substack page&hellip;
&ldquo;According to Bespoke Investment Group, $1,000 invested only during Republican presidencies since 1953 would be worth about $29,000 today,&rdquo; versus $60,000 if invested only during Democratic presidencies &mdash; but $1,000 left invested continuously would have grown to $1.9 million.
This suggests that a disciplined, long-term strategy beats betting on political outcomes.
That seems to be the prevailing sentiment in these 5 Bullets&hellip; Until next time, take care!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

1980

Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the company behind the USDC stablecoin, just pulled off one of the most explosive IPOs in decades. 


Not Since 1980… 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Can Russia Halt Trump&rsquo;s War?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />OK, so Donald Trump did not formally enter the Israel-Iran war on the side of Israel yesterday. It&rsquo;s looking more like this weekend.
When we left you on Wednesday ahead of the Juneteenth holiday, we anticipated a high risk that U.S. airstrikes would begin while the markets were closed. That&rsquo;s how it&rsquo;s gone several times in the last couple of years with U.S. military action in the Middle East.
Instead, the president made headlines yesterday with a prepared statement saying, &ldquo;Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place in the near future, I will make my decision of whether or not to go within the next two weeks.&rdquo;
A lot of people misinterpreted the statement and said there&rsquo;s now a two-week pause.
Not so: &ldquo;Within the next two weeks&rdquo; means anytime inside that two-week span. He could give up on the prospect of negotiations&hellip; today.
Around the same time the White House released that statement, the legendary investigative journalist Seymour Hersh reported a U.S. attack will come &ldquo;as early as this weekend.&rdquo;
&ldquo;I have been told that the White House has signed off on an all-out bombing campaign in Iran,&rdquo; he wrote, &ldquo;but the ultimate targets, the centrifuges buried at least 80 meters below the surface at Fordow, will, as of this writing, not be struck until the weekend.
&ldquo;The delay has come at Trump&rsquo;s insistence because the president wants the shock of the bombing to be diminished as much as possible by the opening of Wall Street trading on Monday.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If there&rsquo;s any chance of heading off U.S. entry into the war at this late stage, it&rsquo;s up to Moscow.
You read that right: &ldquo;The key to settling the war in Iran lies in Ukraine,&rdquo; Jim Rickards wrote his Strategic Intelligence readers this week.
&ldquo;Russian President Putin spoke with President Trump last Saturday. Putin offered Trump a kind of off-ramp for U.S. involvement in Iran. If the U.S. and Russia can reach a rapprochement on Ukraine that satisfies Putin, then Russia would be able exert pressure on Iran to satisfy the U.S. (and, by extension, Israel). That approach opens the door to stopping two wars at once &mdash; Ukraine and Iran.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />This proposition isn&rsquo;t as far-fetched as you might think. Earlier this month, Russia&rsquo;s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov offered his country&rsquo;s help &ldquo;through the export of excess nuclear material produced by Iran and its subsequent adaptation to the production of fuel for reactors.&rdquo;
In other words, Iran&rsquo;s uranium would be shipped to Russia, enriched in Russia to levels far below that required for a weapon, and shipped back to Iran. Actually, Russia has extended this offer from time to time as far back as 2009.
Too, Russia is one of the few countries on mostly friendly terms with both Iran and Israel.
But the odds of success are admittedly slim &mdash; and the window of opportunity is closing fast.
<a id="2"></a>
&ldquo;Trump is smart but he&rsquo;s surrounded by neocon warmongers,&rdquo; says Jim. &ldquo;If Trump takes the Russian off-ramp, two wars may be resolved quickly. If not, both wars will continue indefinitely with a material risk of escalation to the point of a nuclear war that would end human life on Earth.
&ldquo;Putin opened the door. The next move is up to Trump.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Talks? What Talks?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As was the case Wednesday, markets are on tenterhooks waiting for whatever&rsquo;s the next shoe to drop.
We&rsquo;ll get to the numbers shortly &mdash; but first, more on the state of play going into the weekend.
We&rsquo;re not sure what the president considers a &ldquo;substantial chance&rdquo; of new talks &mdash; but it sure seems as if he&rsquo;s already given up on them.
After all, the previous round of negotiations turned out to be a ruse engineered in Washington and Tel Aviv &mdash; designed to keep Tehran off-guard while the Israeli military prepared its attack.
And once the attack was underway last Friday, one of the first Israeli targets was Ali Shamkhani &mdash; a senior adviser to the ayatollah and perhaps the Iranian official most eager to come to terms with Washington.
Put yourself in the mullahs&rsquo; shoes for a moment: How likely would you be to start new talks under those circumstances?
Oh, and just for old times&rsquo; sake&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6sRGXWCvOYngp0nRjNdHUt/48e08d50ae7e982c71158a91f05c14b8/djt_tweet.png" alt="DJT Tweet" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Whatever happens, it&rsquo;s now clear the president has no compunctions about throwing the non-interventionist wing of MAGA under the bus.
It&rsquo;s not just labeling Tucker Carlson as &ldquo;kooky&rdquo; the other day. There&rsquo;s also this&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2ZIiPEyRj1rfDSuCzRNcbm/07178787d51bb5c8b3ad78b9167efd5c/djt-tweet-2.png" alt="DJT Tweet 2" width="400px" />
If the name isn&rsquo;t familiar, Marc Thiessen was the speechwriter for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld at the time of the Iraq War &mdash; and later the speechwriter for George W. Bush.
In other words, he was one of the worst propagandists for the &ldquo;forever wars&rdquo; Trump denounced on the campaign trail.
This is the guy Trump is citing favorably now, even invoking the &ldquo;isolationist&rdquo; smear.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-wars-we-never-get-into" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A week ago today</a> I quoted Mollie Hemingway from The Federalist: Escalation against Iran, she said, &ldquo;would be seen as an unforgivable betrayal by millions of American voters. It would cost him real polling support that would be permanent.&rdquo;
And yet, Trump just dissed them in a way that&rsquo;s even more insulting than calling Tucker Carlson &ldquo;kooky.&rdquo;
The reaction on social media has been equally savage&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1dJ8O6pwhLLA0RYxcoVwIs/d1a235927c0208e2688fb6b598f4bbc2/trump-bush-meme.png" alt="trumpbush" width="350px" />
Speaking of historical parallels&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I&rsquo;m so old, I remember when Germany gave the U.S. &lsquo;airtight&rsquo; intel from a source named Curveball that Saddam Hussein had WMD and was moving it around Iraq in mobile units,&rdquo; tweets the aforementioned Mollie Hemingway.
&ldquo;Let&rsquo;s be very clear,&rdquo; said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt yesterday: &ldquo;Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon. All they need is a decision from the supreme leader to do that and it would take a couple weeks to complete the production of that weapon.&rdquo;
As The New York Times points out (yeah, I know, just hang with me here), &ldquo;Some American officials said those new assessments echoed material provided by Mossad, Israel&rsquo;s intelligence agency, which believes that Iran can achieve a nuclear weapon in 15 days.&rdquo;
It seems the White House puts more stock in the assessment of Mossad than of its own intelligence community.
&ldquo;The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003,&rdquo; Trump&rsquo;s Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told a Senate committee in March.
&ldquo;I don&rsquo;t care what she said,&rdquo; Trump told reporters on Air Force One this week. &ldquo;I think they were very close to having one.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;What they had all along is a latent nuclear deterrent,&rdquo; explained the Libertarian Institute&rsquo;s Scott Horton in a recent interview on the NewsNation network.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s the same as Germany, Japan or Brazil, where they had shown they perfected the fuel cycle, they know how to make nuclear weapons fuel, but they&rsquo;re not making it.&rdquo;
Of course, now that Iran is under attack from Israel, &ldquo;they&rsquo;re actually more likely to pursue nuclear weapons now, whereas before they actually were not pursuing them.&rdquo;
Yep &mdash; and not to launch against anyone, but rather as the ultimate insurance against regime change (which the Israelis are already clear is their objective).
Hey, it&rsquo;s worked for the Kim family in North Korea. They&rsquo;ve had nukes for 20 years now &mdash; not an ideal situation, for sure, but we&rsquo;re all still here.
More important from their standpoint, they&rsquo;re still here.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" /> Silver Smacked
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />All that said, if U.S. entry into the war is imminent, the precious metals markets weren&rsquo;t sniffing it out last night&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7EhfETPGRqCELbwShtFEp9/ee0835c43e073408467e9d66b6e32692/mouse-tweet.png" alt="mouse tweet" />
Silver posted a weekly close last Friday over $36 for the first time since 2012. Then it sailed past $37 earlier this week.
But this morning the bid is down 51 cents or 1.4% &mdash; back below $36.
This is one of those Fridays when options on the precious metals expire. Beat-downs on these days are not unusual. That said, gold is holding up better than silver today &mdash; down less than five bucks at $3,367.
<a id="4"></a>As for stocks, it&rsquo;s a &ldquo;quadruple witching&rdquo; day. That&rsquo;s when four types of derivatives expire all at once &mdash; stock options, stock futures, index options and index futures.
Strange things can happen on these days, but there&rsquo;s nothing showing up in the major averages so far today. The S&amp;P 500 is down less than a quarter-percent at 5,970.
That means there&rsquo;s still time to act on our Mason Sexton&rsquo;s guidance ahead of what he sees as a 30&ndash;40% drop in the market in the months ahead. Based on the techniques he&rsquo;s refined over a 40-plus-year career, he believes today is the first day of the window in which that drop can begin.
Not surprisingly amid the war drums, crude is set to end the week over $75 for the first time since January.
Bitcoin is stuck in neutral, a little over $104,000.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />This Is Getting Ridiculous (Social Security)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Social Security is fixable &mdash; assuming there&rsquo;s any will in Washington to fix it.
This week the trustees of the Social Security system issued their annual update about how much time remains before the Social Security trust fund is depleted.
They say the portion of the fund devoted to retirement benefits will likely run out in 2033. The combined trust fund including disability insurance would be exhausted in 2034. Beyond that point, the system would be funded only by incoming FICA taxes &mdash; and benefits would have to be cut by up to 23%.
For anyone paying attention to these matters, this drop-dead date isn&rsquo;t alarming. It&rsquo;s oscillated between 2033&ndash;2035 for over a decade.
And yet, the politicians have taken no action since 2015.
As I&rsquo;ve said for several years now, there&rsquo;s nothing about Social Security that can&rsquo;t be fixed with some combination of higher taxes and a higher retirement age.
It would still be a Ponzi scheme in the sense that revenue coming in the door from working-age folks goes out the door instantly to retirement-age folks &mdash; and that&rsquo;s problematic on any number of levels &mdash; but it could be made a sustainable Ponzi scheme for another 50&ndash;75 years.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Major Social Security reforms tend to come when there&rsquo;s a president of one party and the House of Representatives is controlled by the other party &mdash; so that no single party takes the political heat.
A huge overhaul came in 1983 under President Reagan and Democratic House Speaker Thomas &ldquo;Tip&rdquo; O&rsquo;Neill. Smaller tweaks also occurred under &ldquo;divided government&rdquo; in 2000 and 2015.
But there&rsquo;s been nothing since. We had divided government again in 2019&ndash;2020 and 2023&ndash;2024&hellip; but no progress on Social Security. The atmosphere in Washington has become too toxic. And there&rsquo;s no way the Republicans are going to take it all upon themselves this year or next.
But none of that alters the fact the clock&rsquo;s still ticking&hellip;
➢ Worth noting: The parlous state of the Social Security trust fund is one reason that Social Security benefits are still subject to income tax under the &ldquo;Big Beautiful Bill&rdquo; in Washington &mdash; Donald Trump&rsquo;s campaign promises notwithstanding. Instead, the bill features a senior tax credit &mdash; which would expire after Trump&rsquo;s term is over.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />A Final Thought
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Deadline approaches and there&rsquo;s only time to pull up an oldie but a goodie &mdash; albeit with new relevance&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6ezCyTkEoa6vQGwwiwKEOp/6bf241f4a5e4f5d9f0bb4c1d69825eeb/epstein_meme.png" alt="Epstein meme" width="350px" />

fmf-putin-hero

If there’s any chance of heading off U.S. entry into the Israel-Iran war at this late stage, it’s up to Moscow. Yes, you read that right.

Can Russia Halt Trump’s War?

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />&ldquo;Summer of Hell&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As the day winds down, the markets face a pregnant pause &mdash; trading closes tomorrow for Juneteenth, reopening Friday. In between, U.S. forces might become fully engaged in a hot war.
We&rsquo;re coming to you a bit later than usual in the afternoon because Paradigm contributor Mason Sexton just wrapped up the Summer 2025 edition of <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2451775">his presentation called </a><a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2451775">The Prophecy</a>.
A &ldquo;summer of hell&rdquo; he&rsquo;s expecting for the markets. &ldquo;There&rsquo;s a chance stocks could drop 10&ndash;15% &mdash; &ldquo;in a matter of days!&rdquo; he says. And up to 30% additional downside after that.
It could all start as early as Friday.

If you want to see his rationale, <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2451775">we encourage you to click here and watch a replay of the event right away</a>.

<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Here&rsquo;s what&rsquo;s sticking in your editor&rsquo;s mind this afternoon &mdash; something that haunts me from when Mr. Sexton did his spring edition of The Prophecy in March.
Then too he was expecting a steep downdraft in the market &mdash; which is exactly what happened in early April.
The catalyst turned out to be the president&rsquo;s &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; tariff announcement. But as Mason explained at the time, the market was primed for a fall and the catalyst could have been anything. One day I mused over the myriad possibilities. One of those possibilities was&hellip;
&hellip; Donald Trump unleashing the U.S. military on Iran.
I cited the independent journalist Ken Klippenstein: &ldquo;President Trump&rsquo;s menu of options for dealing with Tehran now includes one he didn&rsquo;t have in his first term,&rdquo; he wrote: &ldquo;full-scale war&hellip;
&ldquo;While a range of military options are often provided to presidents in a passive-aggressive attempt on the part of the Pentagon to steer them to the one favored by the brass, Trump already has shown his proclivity to select the most provocative option.&rdquo;
Klippenstein said even nuclear weapons are on the table &mdash; according to &ldquo;a retired senior military officer who has been briefed on the planning.&rdquo;
Escalation to nukes would happen one of two ways: &ldquo;One, with the CENTCOM commander &lsquo;requesting&rsquo; the use of nuclear weapons, mostly to stave off Iranian conventional military success; and two, in a &lsquo;top down&rsquo; order, that is, by the president, mostly as a &lsquo;demonstration&rsquo; to &lsquo;signal&rsquo; to Iran.&rdquo;
And here we are, three months later.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Again, we&rsquo;re entering a delicate window with the holiday tomorrow. 
More than once over the last couple of years, major U.S. military action in the Middle East has come while markets are closed. The pattern is too frequent to write off to chance. Last year, U.S. forces launched airstrikes against &ldquo;Iran-linked&rdquo; targets in Iraq and Syria literally the instant the market closed at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on a Friday.

Moments ago during The Prophecy, Mason said <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2451775">there&rsquo;s still time to take protective measures</a> in your portfolio &mdash; but not much. By the time the market reopens on Friday morning, it could be too late.
Of course, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2451775">We invite you to watch the replay of </a><a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2451775">The Prophecy </a><a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2451775">right away</a> and decide for yourself.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Thing About &ldquo;Unconditional Surrender&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />And so the markets are on tenterhooks awaiting the next big development &mdash; more likely from Washington than from the war zone itself.
&ldquo;Nobody knows what I&rsquo;m going to do,&rdquo; the president told reporters this morning.
Which is not exactly new &mdash; on this matter or any other &mdash; but the present moment is more serious than whether Lower Slobbovia will be subject to 10% tariffs or 20%.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> In retrospect, it&rsquo;s a fair question whether Donald Trump was goaded into threatening hot war because of all the TACO talk.
In case you hadn&rsquo;t heard, over the past few weeks there was increasing chatter on both Wall Street and social media about &ldquo;TACO&rdquo; &mdash; short for &ldquo;Trump always chickens out.&rdquo;
At first, it was applied to the on-again, off-again tariffs. But soon, leading Democrats picked up on it to needle the president about&hellip; negotiating with Iran.
Here&rsquo;s the leader of the Democrats in the Senate, 16 days ago&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/39PfWsk95F4r0beJgz7uEL/f96d6bb697b3de9b503e05bf190df24c/ChuckTweet.png" alt="chuck tweet" width="540px" />
<blockquote>➢ Program note: Paradigm Publisher Matt Insley had the lowdown on this MAGA rift in <a href="https://newsyoucanacton.com/posts/tucker-trump-and-magas-rift">this morning&rsquo;s edition of </a><a href="https://newsyoucanacton.com/posts/tucker-trump-and-magas-rift">The Rundown</a>, and The Daily Reckoning&rsquo;s Adam Sharp will also take on the topic later this afternoon.</blockquote>
As you&rsquo;re likely aware, a series of increasingly manic social media posts by the president climaxed yesterday with a demand for &ldquo;UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER&rdquo; from Tehran.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Unconditional surrenders are so rare they are almost unheard of,&rdquo; wrote Richard Maybury more than two decades ago
Maybury is one of the graybeards of the financial newsletter biz &mdash; and a veteran of Washington&rsquo;s dirty wars in Central America during the 1960s. The following is gleaned from his 2002 book World War II: The Rest of the Story and How It Affects You Today.
&ldquo;In an unconditional surrender, the losers are required to lay down their arms with no guarantees at all. They must simply put their fate in the hands of the winners, and the winners can do anything they please, including hang them.&rdquo;
President Franklin Roosevelt demanded unconditional surrender of Germany on Jan. 24, 1943.
At the time, the Nazis were on their heels &mdash; only a week away from getting totally curb-stomped by the Soviets at Stalingrad.
But FDR&rsquo;s demand steeled the Germans&rsquo; resolve.
&ldquo;The effect of this brutal formula on the German nation, and above all on the army, was great,&rdquo; German Gen. Heinz Guderian wrote in his 1951 memoir Panzer Leader. &ldquo;The soldiers, at least, were convinced from now on our enemies had decided on the utter destruction of Germany.&rdquo;
On the flip side, unconditional surrender devastated the enthusiasm of the German underground: One of its members, Gen. Franz Halder, lamented he could no longer attract new recruits. As he put it, even Hitler&rsquo;s fiercest opponents understood that &ldquo;the same frightful fate awaited us with or without Hitler&hellip; The only thing to do was hold out until the end.&rdquo;
The war dragged on for two more years &mdash; with more than one million dead per month.
Something to think about at a time the War Party is once again invoking Nazi analogies to whip up public support for a regime-change op. (So far, <a href="https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/poll-americans-support-talks-with-iran-oppose-involvement-in-israels-war/">it&rsquo;s not working</a>.)
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Standing Pat
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Amid a gathering World War III storm, a Federal Reserve meeting seems positively anticlimactic.
To no one&rsquo;s surprise, the Fed opted to keep the benchmark fed funds rate at 4.5% &mdash; where it&rsquo;s sat for the last six months.
The Fed&rsquo;s statement characterized unemployment as &ldquo;low&rdquo; and inflation as &ldquo;somewhat elevated&rdquo; &ndash; which suggests Fed&rsquo;s focus is still more on inflation than on the job market. That&rsquo;s exactly what Paradigm&rsquo;s Jim Rickards has been anticipating for weeks now.
As was the case in March, Fed officials still project they&rsquo;ll cut the fed funds rate twice before year-end &mdash; just not yet. Not surprising if the Fed now projects 3% inflation for 2025.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The S&amp;P 500 has been oscillating around the 6,000 level in the aftermath of the Fed decision this afternoon &ndash; little higher than yesterday&rsquo;s close. The gains in the Dow and the Nasdaq are likewise modest.
Gold is little moved at $3,380. The bigger mover is silver, back below $37 in a much-needed consolidation.
Copper is steady at $4.79 a pound &ndash; nowhere near the March highs over $5.30 but attractive enough for copper thieves who pulled some internet fiber cables in Southern California. They knocked out service to big swaths of Los Angeles and Ventura counties last weekend.
Crude&rsquo;s movement is muted by the standard of recent days &ndash; up 48 cents to $75.32. Still, that&rsquo;s the highest since late February.
The crypto market appears unimpressed by the passage of landmark legislation in the Senate yesterday &ndash; perhaps because passage in the House might take a few more weeks. (We&rsquo;ll have much more on the implications of this crypto legislation in the days ahead.) Bitcoin is back below $104,000 after making a run toward $109k only two days ago.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s a heavy issue of our 5 Bullets today. We need a respite &mdash; if only long enough to behold a meme lamenting dozens of obnoxious business buzzwords&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1UgzV1aKxh1KYHJxS9wsyM/e6677a4bb6ce018c7bc6a70bfa302393/Comic.png" alt="comic relief" width="540px" />
The great thing about working for Paradigm Press is that I almost never hear any of them! We&rsquo;re too busy trying to make happy customers.
Speaking of which, we heard from two in the inbox this morning&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Readers Old and New Sound Off
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Having lived retired for two decades out of the U.S., 5 Mins. and 5 Bullets was my primary source for US and world economic news,&rdquo; writes a longtime reader.
&ldquo;Now that I have returned to live in California for a few years, it continues to be my most reliable and enjoyable news source. As soon as possible I will be moving to Arizona, because of favorable facts that I have learned about taxes, politics, and grid reliability there from reading 5 Bullets. Having once lived in Santurce and worked in Hato Rey [Puerto Rico], I find that I also prefer warm weather and Latin friendliness.&rdquo;
Addressing Emily after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/bigger-than-israel-iran">yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>, he adds, &ldquo;I much enjoy the softer style that shows in your articles, contrasting so well with the sharp insights from Dave. I intend to continue reading 5 Bullets for the rest of my days.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Hi Dave, thank you for supplying the link to the options information, which I read and understood,&rdquo; writes a reader we heard from last week looking for beginner&rsquo;s guidance on options trading.
(We have just the thing for that &mdash; <a href="https://concierge.paradigmpressgroup.com/post/paradigm-press-presents-the-ultimate-beginners-guide-to-stock-options">The Ultimate Beginner&rsquo;s Guide to Stock Options</a>.)
&ldquo;It was sooo much easier to follow than the article that Schwab insisted I read before applying for options access - my eyes glazed over! But hopefully they will approve me, so that I can get away from merely buying stock.
&ldquo;Having said that I did want to give feedback that the shares I bought/sold/rebought actually made me a 93% profit. Nowhere near the percentage others were making on options, but hey, I was pleased with the result. I also put $5k into the five cryptos James mentioned, as a long-term investment.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Great to hear all around!
Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha, the trading service to which this individual belongs, has been on a roll lately &mdash; registering options gains this month of 604%... 1,078%... and 919%. One of those gains materialized in just over a week.
Alas, this premium advisory is closed to new subscribers at this time. Watch this space for when it reopens&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

NYSE-FMF

We’re entering a delicate window with the holiday tomorrow and U.S. markets closed. 

“Summer of Hell” 

putin-statue

In January, Mason Sexton made a daring prediction: Vladimir Putin would not survive 2025. “We weren’t speaking metaphorically.”

Bigger Than Israel-Iran

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />&ldquo;The Street Loves Blood&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Whatever your opinion of the Israel-Iran war &mdash; or American involvement in it &mdash; one thing is evident: Chances are good it will be bullish for the U.S. stock market.
As we write this morning, about two dozen U.S. aerial refueling tankers are crossing the Atlantic toward the Middle East. The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz is also on its way to the region.
On the other hand, Iran supposedly is ready to sue for peace. &ldquo;Messages passed by Tehran through intermediaries seek a return to talks if the U.S. stays out of the fight,&rdquo; says the subhead to a Wall Street Journal article posted at midmorning.
On the other-other hand, the lead reporter on that story&rsquo;s byline has a checkered history &mdash; accused of fabricating stories during her time at Reuters.
More about the problem with the war and the media later. First, some remarkable market history&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The Street loves blood&rdquo; is an old Wall Street saying.
And it&rsquo;s what came to mind for Paradigm&rsquo;s Mason Sexton on Friday. In a dispatch to readers of The Map, he noticed some uncanny market parallels when looking back at major Israeli wars over the last 50 years&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Six-Day War, June 1967: From a level of around 860, the Dow Industrials rallied steadily to nearly 1,000 by late 1968</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Yom Kippur War, October 1973: A short rally of only a few days, but a rally nonetheless (preceding a grinding bear market that lasted into late 1974)</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Israeli invasion of Lebanon, June-September 1982: From a level in the low 800s, the Dow launched into an epic bull market that August &mdash; running well past 11,000 before the dot-com bust arrived in early 2000. (Way back when, Mason called the start of that rally almost to the day)</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Israel-Hezbollah war, July-August 2006: The Dow began a sustained rise that summer from about 11,200 to a peak near 14,000 in late 2007 (as the early stages of the global financial crisis were underway).</li>
</ul>
So&hellip; four rallies, one lasting only a few days, one lasting 18 years, two that lasted well over a year before the market made a major top.
How will the pattern play out this time?
Or is this the time the pattern breaks?
Well, we don&rsquo;t want to give too much away. If you&rsquo;re a subscriber to The Map, you&rsquo;re already familiar with what Mr. Sexton sees just over the horizon.
If you&rsquo;re not, you should know that this week he&rsquo;s conducting a new edition of his wildly popular briefing from last March called The Prophecy.

This time, he&rsquo;s delivering what Paradigm publisher Matt Insley calls a &ldquo;terrifyingly specific prediction.&rdquo;
You don&rsquo;t want to dismiss that as hyperbole. Recall the bit I mentioned moments ago about how he nailed the start of an 18-year bull market in 1982? He forecast &ldquo;a massive rally in stocks&rdquo; on Aug. 9, 1982.
Three days later, the Dow hit a bottom that would never be seen again.
He called the top of that bull run in early 2000 as well &mdash; along with the tops and bottoms of the global financial crisis and COVID.
What&rsquo;s coming now? This new edition of The Prophecy gets underway this Wednesday at 1:27 p.m. EDT. (There&rsquo;s a significance to the odd start time &mdash; but to see why, you&rsquo;ll have to sign up to watch.)
We do ask that you sign up in advance to watch this one. <a href="https://signups.paradigmpress.me/2450494">But sign-up is as simple as clicking this link.</a> We&rsquo;ll send you an email with everything you need to know to be ready Wednesday.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Alfred E. Neuman Market
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />True to the pattern just described, the U.S. stock market is rallying today &mdash; as if to take a page from Mad magazine icon Alfred E. Neuman: &ldquo;What, me worry?&rdquo;
After closing last week below 6,000, the S&amp;P 500 is up 1.1% on the day to 6,042. The Dow&rsquo;s gain is about the same, the Nasdaq&rsquo;s gain over 1.5%. Bonds, meanwhile, are looking flat.
The commodity complex is taking a rest after its initial spike when Israel began bombing Iran Thursday night. At last check, crude has pulled back $2.43 to $70.55.
Gold is barely holding on to the $3,400 level &mdash; but silver is up a few cents to $36.30.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Bitcoin seems unmoved by news of a new crypto ETF announced by the media arm of the president&rsquo;s business empire.
Trump Media has filed the registration papers with the SEC: The &ldquo;Truth Social Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF&rdquo; will hold 75% of its assets in Bitcoin and 25% in Ethereum.
The ETF&rsquo;s custodian will be crypto.com. No word on what ticker symbol the ETF might trade under.
Bitcoin is holding steady this morning at $107,567. Ditto for Ethereum at $2,641.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Monster That Ate the Power Grid, Continued
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />For the record: AI now poses the biggest challenge to the stability of the power grid.
We&rsquo;ve been warning about <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-monster-that-ate-the-power-grid-ai">&ldquo;the monster that ate the power grid&rdquo;</a> for nearly 18 months now. It&rsquo;s one reason that large swaths of the country are <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/bungee-market#3">at risk of rolling blackouts</a> in case this summer turns extra hot.
Now comes the annual &ldquo;State of Reliability Report&rdquo; from the nonprofit North American Electric Reliability Corporation. It warns that the construction of data centers is proceeding at such a furious pace that power plants and transmission lines simply can&rsquo;t keep up.
Result? &ldquo;Lower system stability,&rdquo; says the report.
That&rsquo;s because data centers don&rsquo;t always require the same amount of juice at the same time. Already there&rsquo;s been trouble in northern Virginia&rsquo;s &ldquo;Data Center Alley&rdquo; &mdash; where voltage issues resulted in about 1.5 gigawatts of datacenters tripping offline last July, and 1.8 gigawatts this past February.
<a id="4"></a>&ldquo;A loss of load of this size is comparable to a large nuclear power plant coming on-line immediately and unexpectedly,&rdquo; says the report, &ldquo;creating an imbalance due to too much generation on the system.&rdquo;
As we&rsquo;ve mentioned in recent weeks, the Trump administration is addressing some of the problem by ordering certain coal-fired power plants to remain open past their scheduled shutdown dates. More &ldquo;baseload&rdquo; power, more stability. (More about that in today&rsquo;s mailbag.)
Too, the White House is looking to revoke Biden-era rules governing the carbon emissions by power plants.
But the latter of those two steps is likely to face court challenges. To be continued&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The News&hellip; and the &ldquo;Fog of War&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Be wary of &lsquo;the news.&rsquo; Much of it is noise,&rdquo; warns our own Byron King about news from the war zones.
Byron is our expert on energy and mining stocks &mdash; but he says this with the authority of a 30-year background as a Navy flight officer, graduate of the Naval War College and former staffer with the Chief of Naval Operations.
He&rsquo;s seeing &ldquo;plenty of ignorant commentary from people who have next-to-zero knowledge. Even if they know something, it's not much. Plenty of disinformation.&nbsp;
&ldquo;Iran-Israel both are incentivized to spread propaganda. Innumerable outsiders have an interest in confusing everyone &amp; everything. And think of the potential for market manipulation.
&ldquo;It gets back to the old military adage about how &lsquo;first reports from the front are almost always wrong.&rsquo; Much of the war is happening at night, and/or very much cyber &amp; electronic. You likely will not know what's happening even if you are standing right there (e.g., &lsquo;on the spot&rsquo; reporters).
&ldquo;And things are happening at algorithm-like speeds because many systems are primed for things to happen at the speed of circuitry. Human eyeballs-brains are too slow. Look at every news item and begin by thinking that it's wrong, and take it from there.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />I&rsquo;ll add my own warning, drawing from 20 years practicing daily journalism before I moved into the financial publishing space.
For as valuable as X-formerly-Twitter can be as an alternative source of breaking news&hellip; Elon Musk did a grave disservice a while back when he made it nearly impossible for users to include external links in their original posts.
Musk&rsquo;s decision gave rise to thousands of slop accounts that post &ldquo;BREAKING NEWS&rdquo; &mdash; often as not just making make s*** up for the sake of clicks.
Case in point: Friday night an account called &ldquo;Merlin Capital&rdquo; posted: &ldquo;BREAKING: IRAN DECLARES STRAIGHT [sic] OF HORMUZ CLOSED.&rdquo;
Huge if true; over 20% of the global oil trade transits that slender waterway. But there was nothing to it.
Or this&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5V8Etq1YEJpZaeFj38O9wP/22639027df66267dca57dd5eaad0f1fe/HomelandSecurityTweet.png" alt="Homeland Tweet" width="540px" />
All too often, ordinarily sensible people will reflexively repost this sort of thing because it fuels their confirmation bias.
More than once, individuals I trust have reposted utter nonsense &mdash; and I have to go chase it down to see if there&rsquo;s any source behind it.
It&rsquo;s one thing when the story is about Ukraine&rsquo;s leader Zelenskyy <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/mainstream-muddies-the-waters-inflation#4">buying a </a><a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/mainstream-muddies-the-waters-inflation#4">choice</a><a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/mainstream-muddies-the-waters-inflation#4"> piece of property</a> from the British royal family. It&rsquo;s another thing when World War III is looming&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" /> Mailbag: Costly Electricity, Gold and &ldquo;Basel III&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />After our previous mention of the feds stepping in to keep coal-fired power plants open, we heard from a longtime reader&hellip;
&ldquo;Your bullet questioned the additional cost to consumers resulting from the Department of Energy order.
&ldquo;As one of those consumers (I live within driving distance from the J.H. Campbell plant in Michigan), local news reports that complying with the order suddenly creates the need for major maintenance and upgrades that weren't getting done with the facility only days from final shutdown.
&ldquo;To which I would also consider the increased cost of coal at spot prices rather than continuous contract.
&ldquo;Ignoring solar and storage, it looks like the Campbell plant had pretty much been replaced by the purchase of a gas-fired plant for the local grid (1,200 MW plus two standby units vs the 1,560 MW peak for Campbell).&nbsp;
&ldquo;While the additional baseload power could be handy as electricity demand increases, the increasing strain on my pocketbook in this instance feels like a triumph of doctrine over common sense.&rdquo;
Dave responds: All good points. It&rsquo;s the folly of central planning and top-down solutions for the Obama and Biden administrations to effectively order the shutdown of these plants. Not sure if it can be fixed with still more central planning and top-down solutions&hellip; but that&rsquo;s the route the Trump administration is going.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> While the gold price consolidates and the silver price plays catch-up, a reader writes from western Canada&hellip;
&ldquo;Will the Basel III directive on July 1 revalue central bank gold reserves?
&ldquo;Which central banks need to comply with Basel III? The Bank of England indicates it is not part of the Basel III framework for example.
&ldquo;Has the Basel III date of compliance been postponed?
&ldquo;We haven't heard much about the Basel III issue from you guys.&rdquo;
Dave: Well now, speaking of news you can&rsquo;t necessarily believe&hellip;
There&rsquo;ve been many rumors during 2025 surrounding the implementation of banking regulations known as &ldquo;Basel III&rdquo; &mdash; the third in a series of international rules drawn up over the years by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. (The BIS is often called &ldquo;the central banks&rsquo; central bank.&rdquo;)
Supposedly, gold was to be elevated to a &ldquo;Tier 1 High Quality Liquid Asset&rdquo; as of July 1 this year.
That would mean U.S. banks, when toting up their core capital reserves, could count physical gold at 100% of its market value. At present, it&rsquo;s marked down by 50% as a &ldquo;Tier 3 asset.&rdquo;
If true, this reclassification would mark a sea change in how the mandarins of the global financial system look upon gold &mdash; not as a &ldquo;risky&rdquo; hunk of metal, but as money.
But about a month ago, the London Bullion Market Association <a href="https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/gold-and-hqla-correcting-misleading-online-information">poured a 55-gallon drum of ice water</a> on this chatter.
It seems gold is already a &ldquo;Tier 1&rdquo; asset &mdash; but it&rsquo;s not recognized as a &ldquo;High Quality Liquid Asset,&rdquo; nor will it be in the immediate future. The LBMA along with the World Gold Council are lobbying hard for gold&rsquo;s recognition as a &ldquo;High Quality Liquid Asset&rdquo; &mdash; as well it should be &mdash; but we&rsquo;re not there yet.
Exactly where the July 1 rumor originated is hard to say &mdash; at least while we&rsquo;re crashing deadline today. (Maybe a slop account on X?)
The point is that the rumor pulled in even some of the most knowledgeable people in the precious metals space, people who&rsquo;ve been on my radar for 15 years or longer &mdash; before the LBMA did its mid-May debunking.
That&rsquo;s how hard it is to separate rumor from reality these days. It&rsquo;s impossible to be too careful&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

shutterstock 2084377243

Here are some uncanny market parallels when looking back at major Israeli wars over the last 50 years… 

4 Wars = 4 Market Rallies (No. 5 Starting Now?)

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />&ldquo;The Wars We Never Get Into&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end,&rdquo; said Donald Trump on Inauguration Day 2025 &mdash; &ldquo;and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.&rdquo;
Yeah, about that&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6N7ByNjvUVY8o1oLaMm8ux/44912ca685c4e6b7b5237afe055e6b19/Michael-tweet.png" alt="michael tweet" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Israel&rsquo;s attack on Iran last night has propelled the oil price to nearly $74 a barrel &mdash; a level last seen in late January.
<blockquote>➢ In contrast to the usual pattern &mdash; &ldquo;buy the rumor, sell the news&rdquo; &mdash; the reaction here has been to buy both the rumor and the news.</blockquote>
We won&rsquo;t dwell on the particulars of Israel&rsquo;s attack; either you&rsquo;ve seen them already, or if not you can read about them nearly anywhere.
Tel Aviv bills its action as &ldquo;preemptive,&rdquo; which begs the question: What looming Iranian attack were the Israelis were trying to &ldquo;preempt&rdquo;?
In any event, the last time Iran sustained an attack of this magnitude on its territory was during the Iran-Iraq War &mdash; which ended in 1988. If mainstream accounts are to be believed, Iran&rsquo;s vaunted air defenses turned out to be a bust.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The narrative about U.S. involvement shifted dramatically in only 12 hours.
The original narrative last night was that Israel freelanced this attack &mdash; sabotaging U.S. diplomacy in the process. Talks between U.S. and Iranian negotiators were set for this Sunday; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went and wrecked all that.
This morning, Trump told The Wall Street Journal, among other outlets, that he was well aware of the Israeli government&rsquo;s intentions before the attack was ever launched &mdash; despite his own public and private warnings to Netanyahu to back off. &ldquo;Heads-up? It wasn&rsquo;t a heads-up. It was, we know what&rsquo;s going on.&rdquo;
Which is worse? Israel going behind Trump&rsquo;s back &mdash; or Israel and Trump conducting an elaborate ruse to make the Iranians think Washington was sincere about wanting to negotiate?
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1jpDqrvi33kt3EP6mudMZd/d8032e0d77ec598cf7bbc1bc4f53673a/SaagarTweet.png" alt="saagar tweet" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> So now what? The Israelis are promising several more days of airstrikes. &ldquo;Israel knows it cannot eliminate Iran&rsquo;s nuclear program alone, or even set it back for more than a few months,&rdquo; tweets the independent journalist Max Blumenthal &mdash; &ldquo;so it aims to ignite a regional war that draws the U.S. into direct conflict.&rdquo;
Adds Trita Parsi of the nonpartisan Quincy Institute: &ldquo;In his speech during the attack on Iran, Netanyahu thanked Trump. He is doing his utmost to convince Tehran that the U.S. was in on the attack &mdash; hoping Iran retaliates against the U.S., so that Israel can get the U.S.-Iran war it has been pushing for since the early 2000s.&rdquo;
Reminder: For all of Trump&rsquo;s alleged antipathy toward U.S. military involvement in the Middle East, over 40,000 U.S. troops are stationed there. This map from Axios isn&rsquo;t 100% up to date, but it&rsquo;s close enough&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/185Xn0TB7AfL7YcvWOh2OB/d5e29ce0cb531beca06706c5d6ccc972/MilitaryMap.png" alt="military map" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The problem for Trump now is that there&rsquo;s been no effort to sell the American people on the necessity of putting U.S. troops at risk.
Contrast that with the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 &mdash; which was preceded by a relentless propaganda campaign lasting over six months.
It comes back to Trump&rsquo;s inaugural statement cited up top &mdash; and his messaging throughout the 2024 campaign, railing against forever wars in the region.
Escalation against Iran &ldquo;would be seen as an unforgivable betrayal by millions of American voters,&rdquo; tweeted The Federalist&rsquo;s editor-in-chief Mollie Hemingway only yesterday.
&ldquo;It would cost him real polling support that would be permanent.&rdquo;
And not just among the independent voters who put him over the top in the seven swing states on Election Day last year. Trump&rsquo;s own base is deeply split &mdash; largely on generational lines.
&ldquo;Boomercons&rdquo; with cable subscriptions who watch Sean Hannity and Mark Levin? They&rsquo;re all on board for war. But younger generations who stream videos of Xers like Tucker Carlson, and millennials like Candace Owens and Cassandra MacDonald? They want nothing to do with it.
(Yes, I&rsquo;m generalizing but you get the point. There&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/majority-americans-hold-unfavourable-view-israel-pew-poll-finds">polling data</a> to back this up.)
Here&rsquo;s the scary thing: If large swaths of the American people and even Trump&rsquo;s own supporters aren&rsquo;t sold&hellip; then the risk is extreme that we&rsquo;ll soon see some kind of bogus <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident">Gulf of Tonkin</a> or <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Maine_(1890)#Sinking">&ldquo;Remember the Maine&rdquo;</a> incident involving a U.S. warship or U.S. base. Works every time&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Let&rsquo;s hope and pray cooler heads will prevail. But as the saying goes, hope is not a plan. 
We said it in this space only 10 days ago after the Ukrainian drone attack deep inside Russia: However many hedges against geopolitical risk you hold in your portfolio, it&rsquo;s probably not enough.
We&rsquo;re talking oil, gold, silver, copper, uranium &mdash; tangible wealth and the companies that produce it. Personally, I still need to beef up my silver holdings via the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) &mdash; I&rsquo;ll continue my dollar-cost averaging today, even with silver prices hovering at a 12-year high.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Markets Today (And Walmart&rsquo;s Bad Week)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In contrast with the commodity complex, stocks and bonds aren&rsquo;t taking the news from the Middle East well.
Among the major indexes, the S&amp;P 500 is holding up best &mdash; down about two-thirds of a percent and clinging to the 6,000 level by closely cropped fingernails. The Nasdaq&rsquo;s losses are steeper, the Dow&rsquo;s steeper still. Volatility as measured by the VIX has spiked to 19.61, the highest since before Memorial Day.
Bonds are likewise selling off, pushing yields higher. The yield on a 10-year Treasury note is over 4.41%, up sharply from yesterday&rsquo;s close under 4.36%. <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-real-reason-for-the-tariff-pause">As was the case in April</a>, Treasuries are not fulfilling their usual safe-haven role amid a crisis atmosphere.
Oil we covered earlier. Gold has rallied sharply &mdash; up 1.25% or $43 to $3,426. Bitcoin is also staging a solid rally after a severe smackdown yesterday; checking our screens it&rsquo;s back to $105,569.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It&rsquo;s been a lousy week for Walmart &mdash; down 2.6% Wednesday and Thursday amid a nascent boycott campaign.
It began with a full-page ad in The New York Times for the nationwide &ldquo;No Kings&rdquo; protests against Donald Trump set for tomorrow. Paying for the ad was a billionaire scioness of the Walton family, Christy Walton.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2L8K1emfV28EEKuNErOn7k/97fd0c6e0c4b48dc3cf4a0908b3515dc/NoKings.png" alt="no kings" width="540px" />
&ldquo;Boycott Walmart!&rdquo; tweeted the MAGA-adjacent political operator Roger Stone.
Walmart, for its part, says it was blindsided. &ldquo;The advertisements from Christy Walton are in no way connected to or endorsed by Walmart,&rdquo; says a company spokeswoman.
The former Christy Tallant married into the Walton fortune in 1978. Her husband, John, was one of founder Sam Walton&rsquo;s sons; he died in a small plane crash in 2005. Christy Walton has no role in running the company or even any of the family trusts. Now 76, she lives in the well-heeled center-left enclave of Jackson Hole, Wyoming (because of course).
Hard telling to what extent Roger Stone&rsquo;s clarion call is catching on; after the beat-down the last two days, WMT shares are flat today.
But Walmart execs can&rsquo;t be happy, thinking they&rsquo;d put conservative protests behind them last year. <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/peak-woke">As we chronicled</a> at the time, the company backed away from some of its more &ldquo;woke&rdquo; endeavors under pressure from activists like Robby Starbuck and Christopher Rufo.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />&ldquo;This Is Amnesty&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Even before Israel&rsquo;s attack on Iran, this stunning news yesterday got lost in the shuffle of other events&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1qYd81Ff0AHw84fWtzyA4t/395076aea78c111b101d254d73a9d453/AFPost.png" alt="af post" width="540px" />
Yesterday morning, the president posted on social media that &ldquo;Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace&hellip; Changes are coming!&rdquo;
By afternoon, he was telling reporters an executive order is in the works. &ldquo;They&rsquo;re not citizens, but they&rsquo;ve turned out to be great&hellip; We can&rsquo;t take [all of the employers&rsquo;] people and send them back.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;This is amnesty,&rdquo; tweets The Federalist&rsquo;s John Daniel Davidson.
As with the Israeli airstrikes on Iran, pockets of MAGA Nation are beside themselves: &ldquo;What Trump is describing here is amnesty for illegal immigrants,&rdquo; Davidson goes on. &ldquo;He&rsquo;s also making a declaration that businesses that openly flout US immigration law (for decades!) will face no consequences.&rdquo;
Another effect is pointed out by talk show host Mike Church: &ldquo;You also will not have local and regional farmers &amp; restaurateurs able to be competitive with multinationals until EVERYONE is hiring from the same, legal pool!&rdquo;
Gee, what was it your editor was saying at the end of <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/gold-vs-bitcoin">Wednesday&rsquo;s edition</a>? When I pointed out that meatpackers and big hotel chains weren&rsquo;t getting raided by ICE?
Oh yeah: &ldquo;See how it works? The Fortune 500 skates. Meanwhile, ICE descends on a small business in LA&rsquo;s Fashion District, along with a Home Depot parking lot where migrants look for day jobs &mdash; and suddenly all hell breaks loose. Trump gets his showdown with teh libruls&hellip; large employers of illegal migrants carry on as usual&hellip; and <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/its-not-just-the-illegals">Palantir makes bank</a> while law-abiding citizens will soon be subject to new horrors of surveillance.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Gold or Bitcoin: Why Not Both?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Time is short, but we want to expend two of our bullets on the mailbag as the week draws to a close&hellip;
On the subject of gold vs. Bitcoin <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/gold-vs-bitcoin">addressed here Wednesday</a>, a reader writes: &ldquo;Why consider them as mutually exclusive?
&ldquo;I&rsquo;ve subscribed to several independent investor newsletters for about a decade now. So I&rsquo;m no expert investor by a long shot.
&ldquo;But I thought it was good to have some diversity in your investments. Is one better than another as far as gold and cryptos go as a non-dollar asset? I think each has its benefit. I have portions of precious metals (not just gold) and some coins in the crypto space.
&ldquo;Yes, including Bitcoin. I bought some initially in the 2017 era.
&ldquo;I have made more money in just Bitcoin that far outweighs any stock I have ever owned (unrealized gains or not). This includes using financial advisers and my own independent investing. I don&rsquo;t think I&rsquo;m biased. I&rsquo;m trying to be prudent.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Best wishes for a great gathering in Nashville in October,&rdquo; a reader writes from Nashville ahead of the 2025 Paradigm Shift Summit. &ldquo;Enjoy your stay.
&ldquo;Been here 61 years and the city has changed just a bit. The weather should be getting right. Business pulls me away on that day, but enjoy the stay and keep the content coming and the presses running.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />What&rsquo;s in a Name?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Dave, I think those doofi at McKinsey goofed on one major point when Warner Bros. and Discovery merged, at their malignant suggestion,&rdquo; a reader writes after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/gold-vs-bitcoin#4">Wednesday&rsquo;s foray into financial absurdity</a>.
[As an aside, this reader indicates he&rsquo;s already signed up to join us in Nashville. Click here for your invitation.]
&ldquo;The obvious error was in choosing the name of the combined company. They got it bass-ackward; it should have been named Discover Warner Bros. The name itself would have been a suggestion of what the company wanted people to do. But since it was named backward, no one was ready to listen. Instead, we were given the lamest possible name for the combined company, and it didn't even tell their stockholders what to do.
&ldquo;Also, if they did choose Discover Warner Brothers, then their stock symbol would probably have been DWB, which would be close enough to calling them &lsquo;Dweeb.&rsquo;&rdquo;
Dave: Hmmm&hellip; The problem there is that the legacy company, pre-merger, wasn&rsquo;t called &ldquo;Discover.&rdquo; It was &ldquo;Discovery,&rdquo; after its namesake Discovery Channel.
But&hellip;
Your musings do bring to mind the classic Saturday Night Live sketches called &ldquo;World of Discover&rdquo; &mdash; featuring the phenomenal Phil Hartman sending up Peter Graves.
Please, let&rsquo;s end this hell week on a lighter note&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4Re8oDtw0FJV9CBg5TRW3n/dfab713fcc9aeeae0642733710e244e1/youtube-snl.png" alt="youtube" width="450px" />
And try to have a good weekend,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

trump-wars

We won’t dwell on the particulars of Israel’s attack on Iran, but the narrative about U.S. involvement shifted dramatically in only 12 hours.

“The Wars We Never Get Into” 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Apple&rsquo;s &ldquo;AI Gap Year&rdquo; Is a Ruse
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Apple just shocked Silicon Valley &mdash; but most people aren&rsquo;t paying attention. 
The Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) is where Apple unveils its latest software, hardware and, most importantly, its vision for the future.
This week, however, the tech press called WWDC 2025 Apple&rsquo;s &ldquo;AI gap year.&rdquo; Meanwhile, Wall Street fretted over Apple losing ground to other Big Tech companies. But if you listen to Ray Blanco, Paradigm&rsquo;s science-and-tech expert, you know better.
&ldquo;Steve Jobs had a favorite saying: &lsquo;Good artists copy, great artists steal,&rsquo;&rdquo; notes Ray. &ldquo;But there&rsquo;s something Jobs didn&rsquo;t mention. The greatest artists wait.&rdquo; And right now, Apple is waiting &mdash; strategically.
Ray&rsquo;s observed this strategy before. &ldquo;Let others build the crappy first versions. Study what actually works. Perfect the integration and ecosystem. Launch and dominate.&rdquo; That&rsquo;s Apple&rsquo;s secret sauce, and it&rsquo;s worked every time&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Take the iPod. &ldquo;Diamond Rio came first. Creative Nomad had the features. Apple was a computer company with no clue about music. Result: iPod launched three years later and killed the entire category&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Or the iPhone. &ldquo;BlackBerry owned business. Palm ruled PDAs. Microsoft had the enterprise. Result: iPhone destroyed them all&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Tablets? &ldquo;Microsoft had tablet PCs since 2001. Everyone said the market didn&rsquo;t exist. Result: iPad created a $100 billion market overnight.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
In other words, Ray sees what most are missing&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;While Google and OpenAI are burning billions on cloud computing, Apple is doubling down on what they do best: building premium hardware that just works,&rdquo; Ray emphasizes.
&ldquo;Apple&rsquo;s vision for on-device AI &mdash; intelligence that works locally, without relying on the cloud &mdash; comes with real engineering challenges,&rdquo; he adds.
&ldquo;To pull it off, Apple needs new kinds of chips. Not the ones powering data centers, but ultra-efficient processors designed to run AI models directly on phones, earbuds, watches, etc. without draining your battery in five minutes&hellip; or using even more power to send data off device and into the cloud.&rdquo;
This is a radical departure from the industry. &ldquo;Apple isn&rsquo;t trying to build another ChatGPT for the cloud. They&rsquo;re interested in making every device in your ecosystem intelligent without sending data anywhere.
&ldquo;That means your AirPods understanding context without internet. It means your Apple Watch making health recommendations without the cloud. It also means your iPhone translating conversations without connectivity.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;On-device AI beats cloud-dependent AI,&rdquo; Ray concludes. &ldquo;On-device processing beats cloud processing because it&rsquo;s faster, more secure and more reliable. And ecosystem control beats platform fragmentation &mdash; this is Apple&rsquo;s classic moat.&rdquo;
So while the tech world is obsessed with cloud AI, Apple is quietly building the future. That you can tuck in your pocket. &ldquo;If history is any guide, it&rsquo;s [something] that Apple has pulled off before,&rdquo; Ray reminds us. &ldquo;The second mouse gets the cheese.&rdquo;
Every other competitor might be chasing the latest AI hype, but Apple is setting the stage for the next big leap &mdash; and Ray is scrutinizing the company&rsquo;s every move. &ldquo;The greatest artists wait. And right now, Apple is poised to change the game all over again.&rdquo;
To help make it happen, though, Apple is likely to make a strategic acquisition. At least that&rsquo;s what Ray&rsquo;s colleague James Altucher believes, based on his proprietary financial AI that&rsquo;s flagged a potential buyout target.
<a id="2"></a>
James&rsquo; system proved enormously lucrative this week for subscribers to his True Alpha trading advisory &mdash; a staggering 1,077% gain on a quantum computing play that materialized in less than 90 days.
Thing is, James says this Apple story is a fast-moving opportunity. By tomorrow he believes it could be too late to act &mdash; for reasons he&rsquo;ll show you when you <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2449785">follow this link.</a>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Central Banks: Gold Surpasses Euro
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Late yesterday, U.S. oil prices jumped over $3 &mdash; almost 5% &mdash; to close at $68.15 per barrel, mainly because tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated. For instance, nuclear-deal talks stalled, the U.S. withdrew some diplomats from the Middle East citing safety concerns and Iran threatened possible attacks on U.S. bases. In other words, just another Wednesday.
As for stocks, Boeing (BA) shares are down about 4.5%...
<ul>
<li>Earlier today, an Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner, carrying more than 240 passengers and crew, crashed shortly after departing from Ahmedabad, India. The aircraft went down near the airport in a densely populated area; initial reports indicate no survivors among those on board. Local authorities are assessing possible ground casualties as well. This incident marks the first fatal crash involving the Boeing 787 model.</li>
</ul>
Taking a look at the broader market, the three U.S. stock indexes are in fair shape: The Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500 are both about 0.25% to 19,665 and 6,040 respectively. In third place, the DJIA is up about 0.05% to 42,890.
The crypto market, on the other hand, is in the red at the time of writing. Bitcoin&rsquo;s down 1.15% to $107,500 while Ethereum&rsquo;s lost almost 3% to $2,735.
When it comes to precious metals, it&rsquo;s a risk-on day: Silver&rsquo;s up 0.25% to $36.35, and the price of gold&rsquo;s up almost 2% to $3,407.70 per ounce. For more context on gold, read on&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> According to the European Central Bank (ECB), gold&rsquo;s more important than ever for central banks around the world. 
At the end of 2024, for example, gold made up about 20% of official global reserves &mdash; surpassing second-place reserve asset, the euro, which accounts for 16%. This shift happened because central banks have been buying gold at record pace, while gold prices have also reached new highs.
Last April, gold hit an all-time high over $3,500 per ounce; the price of gold climbed almost 62% since the start of 2024, driven by global uncertainty, market ups and downs and, yes, intense demand from central banks.
Over the past three years, in fact, central banks have added more than 1,000 metric tons of gold to their reserves each year. That&rsquo;s about double the average amount bought each year during the 2010s.
Nevertheless, the U.S. dollar is still central banks&rsquo; top reserve asset. According to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S. dollar&rsquo;s share of total allocated foreign exchange reserves fell to 57.8% at the end of 2024 &mdash; its lowest level since 1994. This marks a decline of about 7 percentage points over the past decade.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/FMRYZ4Yrb50rbBmFEZLim/f2c62fa4f13bad14a2c064ee881b3067/Dollar-share.png" alt="dollar share chart" width="540px" />
Since Russia&rsquo;s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, demand for gold as a reserve asset has taken off. Countries facing sanctions or those with ties to China and Russia have especially increased their gold holdings. The biggest buyers in 2024? Turkey, India, China, Azerbaijan and Poland.
Globally, central banks now hold about 36,000 tons of gold &mdash; close to the record set in 1965 &mdash; as gold steadily reclaims its place as the world&rsquo;s go-to financial safety net.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The EPA&rsquo;s Power Play
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced plans this week to undo air-pollution standards for mercury and to eliminate carbon dioxide rules for power plants. 
These changes would <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/tesla-tanks-google-gasps-now-what#3">roll back policies</a> put in place during the Biden administration and are part of a broader effort to reduce the EPA&rsquo;s role in regulating climate change.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, who took office in January, has made it a priority to ease rules on American industries and encourage more fossil fuel-based energy production, including coal. The proposed changes follow executive orders from President Trump to expand coal mining and increase coal-fired power generation.
Supporters of the new rules say they will save American families about $1 billion a year on electricity bills and help ensure a reliable supply of power. Industry groups argue that the previous regulations were unrealistic and hurt the economy.
&ldquo;Today&rsquo;s announcements are a welcome course correction,&rdquo; says Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. Lawmakers from coal states, like Rep. Carol Miller (R-WV), also praise the move for helping coal miners and local economies.
However, environmental and public health groups argue that rolling back these protections will harm public health. The American Lung Association and other groups, for instance, are urging the EPA to keep the Biden- and Obama-era safeguards in place.
Expect legal challenges as the agency reviews public comments before issuing a final rule. The debate centers on whether the economic benefits &mdash; and grid stability &mdash; outweigh the potential health and environmental risks.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Outlaws at the Border
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The long-running border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the oil and gold-rich Essequibo region has gotten more volatile in recent months.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/is-biden-planning-another-war">The standoff</a> we first brought to readers&rsquo; attention in late 2023 is increasingly marked by armed incidents, organized crime and high-stakes resource competition.
Venezuela continues to assert its claim over Essequibo &mdash; a region that makes up roughly two-thirds of Guyana and is home to about 125,000 Guyanese &mdash; insisting that nothing should be done in the area until the two countries settle the border dispute.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4dZD33LYgQcr1wnvVObMYl/b40a64b849e9a223c0601548cf6a83d3/Guyana.png" alt="guyana map" width="400px" />

Source: U.S. Southern Command
&ldquo;Any initiative involving that area should avoid assuming a settled territorial status,&rdquo; says Venezuela&rsquo;s vice foreign affairs minister for the Caribbean. Meanwhile, Guyana maintains that Essequibo is its sovereign territory and that the issue is before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), whose rulings are legally binding.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On the ground, the situation has become more dangerous. Armed groups &mdash; many linked to illegal mining and criminal networks in Venezuela, have been crossing into Essequibo, setting up checkpoints, extorting miners and even clashing with the Guyana Defense Force (GDF) along the Cuyuni River.
These groups, known as sindicatos, operate with apparent impunity and are suspected of having support from Venezuelan authorities. Their presence has made the region a hotspot for smuggling, drug trafficking and violence, with Guyanese officials noting criminal networks from Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil are all active in the area.
Venezuela has also taken provocative political steps, holding elections for a &ldquo;governor&rdquo; and lawmakers for Essequibo &mdash; despite the fact that none of the region&rsquo;s actual residents participated. The ICJ has ordered Venezuela to halt these election plans, calling them a violation of international law. Nevertheless, President Maduro has used the issue to rally nationalist sentiment and shore up domestic support.
In the meantime, Guyana&rsquo;s oil industry is booming, with current production around 650,000 barrels per day and projections to reach 1.3 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.
This has made the country a strategic partner for the United States, which has pledged to support Guyana&rsquo;s security and territorial integrity. U.S. officials have warned Venezuela against any aggression, and Guyana is now open to hosting foreign military bases if necessary.
With both sides digging in, and criminal and political interests overlapping, the risk of broader conflict in the Essequibo is real.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />The French Saga of Hazelnut Spreads
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Every July, France&rsquo;s great summer migration &mdash; les grandes vacances &mdash; turns highways into parking lots and airports into obstacle courses.
Among the millions heading out are families with roots as far away as Cameroon, Turkey and Algeria, all eager for le retour au bled, the annual &ldquo;return to the homeland.&rdquo;
But what&rsquo;s brought back in overstuffed suitcases? Last summer, the hottest contraband wasn&rsquo;t designer knockoffs &mdash; it was El Mordjene, an Algerian hazelnut spread that set off a frenzy across France.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6FVRrBNgGfhdiuXvsoosrP/bc0fc6a96c7f5ef2a4eac533902ab96e/El-Mordjene.png" alt="El-Mordjene" width="300px" />

Courtesy: eBay
El Mordjene&rsquo;s suddenly became a symbol of identity and pride for many French-Algerians, with fans declaring it &ldquo;better than Nutella&rdquo; and playgrounds erupting in chants of &ldquo;Who wants El Mordjene? Woop woop!&rdquo;
But the buzz triggered more than just sweet-tooth cravings&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> French customs banned El Mordjene, citing dairy import rules &mdash; even after it was revealed that the powdered milk in question was actually sourced from France itself!
Algerian commentators called the ban &ldquo;disguised protectionism&rdquo; and &ldquo;flagrant injustice,&rdquo; arguing that the ban was a thinly veiled move to protect Nutella&rsquo;s market dominance.
France, by the way, is the world&rsquo;s largest consumer of Nutella, and its producer &mdash; the Italian company Ferrero &mdash; runs one of its biggest factories near Rouen, France.
Since the customs ban went into effect, the clash between El Mordjene and Nutella has become a stand-in for deeper tensions between France and Algeria, bound by a long and painful history of colonialism.
In the end, the El Mordjene affair is a reminder that even something as simple as a jar of hazelnut spread can carry the weight of history&hellip; and spark a diplomatic incident.
Take care, reader! Until next time&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

sleepy-apple

Apple just shocked Silicon Valley — but most people aren’t paying attention. 

Apple Asleep on AI? Hardly!

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Gold or Bitcoin?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It was a remarkable event in our firm&rsquo;s history. For sure, our art department outdid itself&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/36osy5ipeuRQBfD9H3w4xc/276478837cb5ff556db11470af0ac9c2/goldvsbitcoin.png" alt="gold vs. bitcoin" width="450px" />
In early 2018, we convened a debate over which was the better non-dollar asset &mdash; gold or Bitcoin.
Paradigm&rsquo;s two heavyweight gurus faced off &mdash; Jim Rickards arguing for gold, James Altucher arguing for Bitcoin. Fox Business anchor Cheryl Casone served as referee.
Jim agreed to fight on enemy territory at James&rsquo; comedy club, Stand Up NY. Jim thought Bitcoin was useful only to money launderers and drug dealers. James thought gold was a useless shiny rock.
Jim emerged victorious by a split decision among the crowd.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Of course, in the interest of full disclosure, we&rsquo;re compelled to chronicle what&rsquo;s happened since.
On the day of the debate in January 2018, gold was testing a high it had last seen in late 2016, trading for $1,355.
Today, the bid is $3,336 &mdash; within reach of April&rsquo;s all-time high, and a respectable 145% gain in seven and a half years.
Meanwhile in early 2018, Bitcoin was coming down hard from its late-2017 peak of $20,000. On the day of the debate, it was around $11,500 &mdash; a level that wouldn&rsquo;t be revisited until early 2021!
Today? $109,654 &mdash; also within reach of a recent all-time high. It&rsquo;s a stunning 850% gain &mdash; assuming you could stomach the volatility.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6eJdKEnkmDA5RvtYrABfRJ/264652ffb5bb5271395c4fc6697deb36/6.11_5_Bullets_Chart.png" alt="after the debate" width="540px" />
End of the story? Hardly&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The amount of change that&rsquo;s taken place since January 2018 is staggering. 
In 2022, central banks around the world lit a fire under gold when they started accumulating the Midas metal in record quantities &mdash; and they&rsquo;re not done yet. In addition, gold emerged as the go-to asset earlier this spring when stocks and bonds sold off together (something that rarely happens).
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is nearing the peak of a reliable four-year cycle. Time to sell? Maybe not this time with the arrival of a crypto-friendly administration in Washington.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Amid this backdrop, we&rsquo;re holding a rematch this year &mdash; on neutral territory.
After an election-year hiatus in 2024, the Paradigm Shift Summit is back by popular demand. And the marquee event will be an all-new face-off between Jim and James. Gold and Bitcoin. Mano a mano. No holds barred.
Our 2022 and 2023 gatherings in Las Vegas were a huge hit with your fellow readers. This time, we&rsquo;re swapping Sin City for Music City: We&rsquo;ll gather Thursday, Oct. 9 at the Renaissance Hotel in Nashville.
Will there be a livestream of the gold-Bitcoin debate, you ask? Afraid not. The only way to watch is to be in the room.
But there will be so much more than just the debate to make the trip worth your while.
We&rsquo;ve beefed up the speaker list as we&rsquo;ve beefed up our team the last couple of years. In addition to Jim and James, our existing favorites of&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Tech and biotech specialist Ray Blanco&hellip;</li>
<li>Mining and energy authority Byron King&hellip;</li>
<li>Recovering investment banker and Rude Awakening editor Sean Ring&hellip;</li>
<li>Income and value investing maven Zach Scheidt&hellip;</li>
<li>and options pro Alan Knuckman&hellip;</li>
</ul>
Will be joined by&hellip;
<ul>
<li>Hedge fund veteran and trading pro Enrique Abeyta</li>
<li>Chart hound and Trading Desk editor Greg Guenthner</li>
<li>Microcap specialist Chris Cimorelli</li>
<li>and Mason Sexton, the sui generis editor of The Map.</li>
</ul>
I hope you can join me and the rest of our team in Nashville this October. If you want to learn more, <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2449042">here&rsquo;s your formal invitation from our VP of publishing Doug Hill. No long video to watch</a>.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Cross-Currents: Trade and Inflation
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The two market-moving stories today are a renewed U.S.-China trade truce &mdash; assuming it exists &mdash; and the official May inflation numbers.
U.S. and Chinese negotiators wrapped up two days of talks in London yesterday.
At the end of those talks, the narrative that emerged is that tensions over China&rsquo;s rare earth exports and other issues are over. The clock is being wound back to May 12, when an earlier round of negotiations ended with Washington imposing 30% tariffs on Chinese imports and Beijing imposing 10% tariffs on U.S. imports &mdash; a 90-day truce opening the door for more extensive negotiations.
Except that this morning, Donald Trump took to social media and said the tariff on U.S. goods from China is actually 55% &mdash; not 30%.
So what&rsquo;s the deal? At this point, you know what we know.
Doesn&rsquo;t do much to help businesses make long-term plans, does it?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Meanwhile, to hear the Labor Department tell it, the inflation rate is 2.4%.
That&rsquo;s up from last month&rsquo;s 2.3% reading&hellip; but it&rsquo;s lower than the typical Wall Street economist&rsquo;s expectation for 2.5%. As always, any resemblance to your own cost of living is purely coincidental.
Lower energy prices (down 3.5% year-over-year) were more than offset by higher shelter prices (up 3.9% year-over-year) and higher food prices.
None of this makes any difference for Federal Reserve policy: The Fed will once again leave short-term interest rates alone at its meeting next week, much to the consternation of the president.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Amid these cross-currents, the major U.S. stock averages are inching higher.
The S&amp;P 500 is up another quarter-percent to 6,054 &mdash; only 90 points away from its record close in February.
We noted the gold and Bitcoin prices earlier. Silver is taking a rest, but still over $36.
Crude is screaming higher after the release of the Energy Department&rsquo;s weekly inventory data &mdash; up $1.54 to $66.52, another level last seen in early April.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Taiwan: War Over Before It Began?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Now for a stunning development from overseas that Western media are only starting to pick up on: Four top members of Taiwan&rsquo;s ruling party have been indicted for spying on behalf of mainland China.
Until Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-indicts-four-suspected-spies-china-case-reaching-presidential-office-2025-06-10/">picked up the story</a> yesterday, Westerners knew about it only via the X feed of the well-traveled internet entrepreneur Arnaud Bertrand &mdash; an astute observer of the global scene who lived in mainland China for several years.
The accused include a one-time top aide to President Lai Ching-te and a top aide to the former foreign minister.
What makes this such a bombshell is that all four belong to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party &mdash; the anti-CCP faction that&rsquo;s most in favor of declaring independence from the mainland. (For decades, Taiwan has claimed to be the legitimate government of the mainland &mdash; just as the mainland claims to be the legitimate government of Taiwan.)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The implications are mind-blowing, Bertrand writes: &ldquo;It's safe to assume that every major Taiwanese defense plan, every diplomatic initiative, every presidential movement and every strategic assessment has been an open book to Beijing for the better part of a decade.&rdquo;
Oh, as well as all communications between Taipei and Washington.
&ldquo;The conclusion is devastating for Taiwan: China might have just achieved the ultimate expression of its own strategic doctrine - they have conquered Taiwan's strategy so completely that conquering by fighting becomes unnecessary.&rdquo;
<a id="4"></a>
The good news for everyday Americans is that a shooting war between Washington and Beijing might well be off the table now. As your editor wrote <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/no-blood-for-chips">two years ago</a>, there&rsquo;s nothing about the fate of Taiwan that&rsquo;s worth the sacrifice of U.S. troops &mdash; much less risking nuclear war and the loss of Tampa or Tucson for the sake of saving Taipei.
Now if only Zelenskyy and Netanyahu would stop trying to drag America into their wars. (That is, more than is already the case&hellip;)
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Consulting Is a Lucrative Grift
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It&rsquo;s good to be McKinsey &amp; Co. &mdash; the bloated consultancy that over time has cursed us with everyone from <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2018/12/10/how-harvard-business-school-wrecked-the-world/">Facebook&rsquo;s Sheryl Sandberg</a> to former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas).
Case in point: McKinsey&rsquo;s work for the media giant Warner Bros. Discovery. This week, the company announced it would spin off its cable channels like TBS and CNN into a separate company.
It&rsquo;s the culmination of a three-year saga that went like this&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4PqOYAjo3feiSomGUIvJHo/fd69a7ef69f0935c04ebfe1163374d9e/Chris-Tweet.png" alt="chris tweet" width="540px" />
As the humorist Dave Barry often says, you can&rsquo;t make this stuff up&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Caught in the Crossfire
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> After <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/its-not-just-the-illegals">yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>, one of our regulars saw fit to chime in&hellip;
&ldquo;I appreciate that you look for genuine answers, Dave. So here is something to think about:
&ldquo;Follow the money.
&ldquo;Why are Trump and his cast of clowns manufacturing so many emergencies? Why the onerous tax regime of tariffs to fleece the working class? Why the taxpayer-funded propaganda on national TV? Why rush to eliminate the debt ceiling and push a multitrillion-dollar, deficit-blowing bill through Congress?
&ldquo;Trump is burning through cash at a staggering rate. They are blowing up the checkbook as they blow up the country.
&ldquo;Trump is used to living large, and he's got a whole stable of miscreants to pay. He certainly isn't going to pay them with the money he's collecting in bribes and tribute.
&ldquo;Congress can't unshackle the public checkbook fast enough for Trump.
&ldquo;Trump and his allies aren&rsquo;t governing &mdash; they&rsquo;re looting. This is a fire sale of the American republic. And it&rsquo;s happening in plain sight.&rdquo;
Dave responds: Always remember, Trump is first and foremost <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trump-vs-the-15">a result of the Establishment&rsquo;s failures</a> &mdash; not that the Establishment is capable of any introspection, of course.
The problem now is that normie Americans who don&rsquo;t live and die by politics are caught in the crossfire of people who do live and die by politics. By now I&rsquo;m getting a vague sense of what it must have been like to try living a normal life in South Central LA in the 1980s while the Crips and Bloods were fighting it out.
And as long as I brought up LA&hellip;
Notice how the administration is pursuing the route of performative confrontation&hellip; rather than actually addressing the immigration issue?
The independent reporter Lee Fang spotlighted this phenomenon a few weeks ago&hellip;
<blockquote>Consider the likeliest destinations of illegal migrants. Those without documentation tend to make up a significant portion of the workforce in construction, slaughterhouses, restaurants, hotels, janitorial work and gig delivery services. Yet businesses in these industries have reported few significant raids from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. These pillars of the economy are virtually untouched by the supposed crackdown.</blockquote>
<blockquote>What&rsquo;s more, despite ample laws that exist to prosecute employers for knowingly employing or recruiting illegal labor, Fortune 500 American executives have faced no scrutiny. You might expect the largest homebuilder in the country, KB Home, to have been bothered by ICE agents since the change in administration. But Robert McGibney, the company&rsquo;s president, told investors on a recent call that &ldquo;we&rsquo;ve seen nothing at all related to immigration.&rdquo;</blockquote>
See how it works? The Fortune 500 skates. Meanwhile, ICE descends on a small business in LA&rsquo;s Fashion District, along with a Home Depot parking lot where migrants look for day jobs &mdash; and suddenly all hell breaks loose.
Trump gets his showdown with teh libruls&hellip; large employers of illegal migrants carry on as usual&hellip; and Palantir makes bank while law-abiding citizens will soon be subject to new horrors of surveillance.
Hopefully people wake up sooner rather than later. I&rsquo;m doing my small part&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
P.S. Remember <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/what-if-trump-breaks-this-promise">my outlier scenario from January</a>? The one about Trump abandoning his &ldquo;no CBDC&rdquo; campaign promise on the pretense that it would stop illegal migrants?
Starting to look a little more plausible now, no?

goldvsbitcoin

Gold or Bitcoin? It was a remarkable event in our firm’s history… 

Gold vs. Bitcoin? 

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />It&rsquo;s Not Just the Illegals
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The following meme I saw a while back comes to mind as I try to make sense of events in recent days&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/46G9nkY4TmKvSxo4CVbHaj/e1e46c8085c13a28f9fb1463fcfb4384/noticing.png" alt="noticing" width="540px" />
(To be clear, that&rsquo;s not actually a line from The Big Lebowski. At least not that I recall&hellip;)
Let&rsquo;s rewind to last week. As we chronicled <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trump-musk-all-kayfabe#2">in Friday&rsquo;s edition</a>, everyday conservatives were learning for the first time about the extensive surveillance powers of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) &mdash; and the company&rsquo;s ties to the deep state. Two decades ago, the feds effectively outsourced illegal spying to Palantir &mdash; on the theory that there are no constitutional issues if a private company does it and then turns over the data to the feds.
The gathering outrage was such that Palantir CEO Alex Karp went on CNBC last Thursday to defend his company. The interview was a disaster &mdash; torched by right and left alike. PLTR shares tanked 7.8% that day.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The very next day, the trouble in Los Angeles started breaking out &mdash; and conservative &ldquo;influencers&rdquo; like Laura Loomer soon went to work.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/L0NT69DPp7JVa9Pwwz3Ib/15b96532072f6a57c2083f96264af458/laura1.png" alt="laura tweet" width="540px" />
For Loomer in particular, it was quite the heel turn. Check this out from two years ago, Loomer calling out Palantir and its &ldquo;Gotham&rdquo; tool &mdash; as well as both Karp and Palantir chairman Peter Thiel&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5i3bBuBM6FFQdkNr9cUiaO/1ccf9412ba38de0dd50551e24dad7194/laura2.png" alt="laura tweet" width="540px" />
As one observer on X pointed out, &ldquo;MAGA spent years railing against surveillance states and big-data tyranny. Now it wants to deploy Palantir on U.S. soil.&rdquo;
By the end of yesterday&rsquo;s market action, PLTR shares had recovered all of their losses after Karp&rsquo;s CNBC debacle. Amazing how that works&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Meanwhile, it turns out Gotham was already in use in Los Angeles before the protests and riots broke out.
Gotham was originally put into service during Washington&rsquo;s forever wars in the Middle East and South Asia &mdash; supposedly enabling the U.S. military to anticipate insurgent attacks. Mission planners in Afghanistan drew on Gotham&rsquo;s purported ability to cross-reference maps, intelligence briefings and incident reports.
&ldquo;Local law enforcement agencies are also making use of Gotham,&rdquo; independent journalist Kit Klarenberg writes at The Grayzone.
&ldquo;The total number of forces worldwide using the technology is unknown, but leaked Los Angeles Police Department training documents on Gotham, including an &lsquo;Intermediate Course&rsquo; and an &lsquo;Advance Course,&rsquo; shed significant light on the tool&rsquo;s internal workings.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The sheer volume of data collected on citizens &mdash; whether they are law-abiding, are suspected of having committed a crime or are simply connected to individuals accused of wrongdoing &mdash; is staggering,&rdquo; Klarenberg writes of the LA documents.
&ldquo;This includes sex, race, names, contact details, addresses, prior warrants, mugshots, surveillance photos, personal relationships, past and current employers, tattoos, scars, piercings and other identifying features.
&ldquo;Such a cutting-edge service doesn&rsquo;t come cheap, and Gotham subscriptions run to millions of dollars annually. The vast windfall reaped from multiple state entities since Palantir&rsquo;s inception has made the firm&rsquo;s founders very wealthy indeed &mdash; Karp&rsquo;s personal worth alone is currently estimated at $12.2 billion&hellip;&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Note well what Klarenberg said there: Citizens. Not illegal migrants. And it&rsquo;s already going on.
Loomer and the rest are simply manufacturing consent for abuses that have been taking place for years, while they demand still more surveillance and still more control &mdash; using the riots and protests as cover.
The story is as old as it is infuriating. &ldquo;You never want a serious crisis to go to waste&rdquo; is the famous saying of Barack Obama&rsquo;s chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.
Chris Rossini, senior fellow at the Ron Paul Institute, puts it pithily&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3rgCecrF23uYGQeaKI21pH/edf7a6e69ba17ef4cb1ef68f92f442f5/chris.png" alt="chris tweet" width="540px" />
Never forget: The Patriot Act was written years before 9/11. It was just pulled off the shelf the instant it became convenient.
The ensuing &ldquo;War on Terror&rdquo; gave rise to Palantir. What new surveillance-state horrors might arise from the present moment?
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />A Silver Opportunity
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> For the first time in several days, silver is in the red. But it&rsquo;s still over $36. Heck, last week $34.85 marked a 12-year high!
But it&rsquo;s not just the rise in price, Paradigm&rsquo;s recovering investment banker Sean Ring writes at the Rude Awakening: &ldquo;Over the past week, silver has outperformed gold significantly.
&ldquo;The gold-to-silver ratio has collapsed from over 100 to 90, with more room to fall. That ratio has only been this high during a few key moments of panic in history &mdash; the early 1990s recession, the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 collapse. Each time, silver screamed higher in the recovery.
&ldquo;When silver outperforms gold, it&rsquo;s usually a sign that confidence in paper assets is cracking, not just among the gold bugs, but among the broader class of capital allocators.
&ldquo;Silver's rise coincides with Bitcoin&rsquo;s recent breakout, oil&rsquo;s unexpected surge and a global rejection of negative-yielding (return-free risk) assets masquerading as sovereign debt. While the Fed pretends to have things under control, the market is hedging in real-time, with commodities.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> And don&rsquo;t overlook the law of supply and demand. That too ison silver&rsquo;s side, according to Paradigm&rsquo;s resident geologist Byron King.
&ldquo;Begin with the fact that many of the world&rsquo;s long-established silver districts and mines are on the backside of their productive life,&rdquo; he writes today for the Daily Reckoning. &ldquo;From Argentina to Mexico, to Idaho, to the Yukon, many large-scale old districts and mines have been producing metal for many decades; but they are playing out for a long list of reasons.
&ldquo;Now the silver search goes further afield, looking for smaller deposits, often with lower grades, and deeper in the earth, which means more expensive to exploit, either with surface mining or via mine shafts. The takeaway is that the silver supply is tight and getting tighter.&rdquo;
And then there&rsquo;s demand: &ldquo;At industrial scale, more and more silver goes into new products, meaning items that didn&rsquo;t exist in decades past,&rdquo; Byron goes on. &ldquo;Consider the ubiquity of electronics (which contain silver, of course) in everything from smartphones to microwave ovens to automobiles. Now add exploding silver demand from solar panel manufacturing.
&ldquo;On top of that, there&rsquo;s a global-scale level of silver accumulation in various forms of stockpiles. Some of it is industrial buying by companies and nations that are thinking a decade and more ahead to feed their industries.
&ldquo;Other silver buys come from central banks, such as state-level actors in Russia, India, China and more. Evidently, the leadership cadres of these nations foresee silver as a future component of a new monetary system of global trade and finance.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />And why wouldn&rsquo;t they at a time Congress is on the verge of another budget blowout?
Back to Sean Ring: &ldquo;Silver isn&rsquo;t just an industrial metal. It&rsquo;s money. Always has been. Always will be.
&ldquo;In a world awash in fiat, bloated deficits, negative real rates and exploding debt-to-GDP ratios, the case for hard money is stronger than ever. Gold gets the spotlight, sure. But silver is the canary in the monetary coal mine.&rdquo;
Sooner or later, Sean says we&rsquo;re headed back to the 2011 high at $50. &ldquo;The world is on the verge of another commodity supercycle, and silver is the cheapest ticket on the ride.&rdquo;
Beyond $50, you wonder? Adjust that 2011 figure for inflation and you&rsquo;re looking at $71.64. Just sayin&rsquo;...
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The View From Small-Business America
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If it weren&rsquo;t for uncertainty about tariffs and taxes, American small business would be thriving right now.
At least that&rsquo;s the takeaway from the latest Small Business Optimism Index compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business.
The headline number for May is 98.8 &mdash; up from 95.8 in April and slightly above this venerable survey&rsquo;s 51-year average.
&ldquo;Although optimism recovered slightly in May, uncertainty is still high among small-business owners,&rdquo; says NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg &mdash; obliquely referring to on-again, off-again tariffs and an uncertain fate surrounding the tax provisions of the &ldquo;big beautiful bill&rdquo; on Capitol Hill.
Amid that backdrop, taxes now top the part of the survey where respondents are asked to identify their single most important problem.
Taxes were cited by 18% of respondents, the highest since December 2020. &ldquo;Quality of labor&rdquo; was identified by 16%, suggesting good help is still hard to find. Inflation is in third place at 14%.
Four categories were tied for fourth place, each cited by 9% &mdash; labor costs, regulations, cost/availability of insurance and poor sales.
Hmmm&hellip; It&rsquo;s been over four years since &ldquo;poor sales&rdquo; registered that high. Something we&rsquo;ll be watching&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As for big business, at least the publicly traded ones, the major U.S. stock indexes are all in the green today.
At last check the S&amp;P 500 is up a quarter percent to 6,021. The Nasdaq&rsquo;s gain is likewise about a quarter-percent. The Dow&rsquo;s gain is less than a tenth of a percent.
While silver is losing ground, gold is holding steady at $3,320. Crude is up nearly 1% to another two-month high at $65.85.
Bitcoin seems to be coiling for another run at its $112,000 record, currently fetching just under $109k.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Grim Chuckle
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> What can one possibly add to this?
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4J2yok1vHp6u6z5q1hbWsB/d8b95f77d154470c57483771f63666bf/Hana.png" alt="hana tweet" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Investing&hellip; and Ethics
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />We love hearing from new readers (as well as our longtimers, of course!) and we especially love seeing emails like this.
&ldquo;Hi Dave, I&rsquo;ve recently started trading stocks and I&rsquo;m so new to it that I haven&rsquo;t even managed to set up my Schwab account for options trading yet. So currently just buy and sell. But I have just read your latest newsletter and it was so refreshing.
[The reader&rsquo;s referring to <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trump-musk-all-kayfabe#2">Friday&rsquo;s edition</a>, where we first took up the outrage against Palantir.]
&ldquo;I&rsquo;ve read so many articles by people like [analysts for one of Paradigm&rsquo;s competitors], and some of the things they say so gleefully make me want to cringe. It&rsquo;s all about the money. They&rsquo;re pleased that our government is looking at ways of gathering CONFIDENTIAL personal information without our consent for AI purposes, or that our national land will basically become a free-for-all &mdash; and by all, I mean of course, the wealthiest amongst us.
&ldquo;So the fact that you recognize some of these limitations makes me feel a bit better. Do I want to make more money from my cash savings? Abso-blooming-lutely! But I&rsquo;d like to do it without harming our environment or just completely obliterating people&rsquo;s right to privacy!
&ldquo;Just FYI, I did buy [ticker symbol deleted] stock, and sold every day just to take my profit and rebought. For my $2,700 investment, I made a 47.93% profit. Not bad, huh!&rdquo;
Dave responds: Wow. Pretty sure you&rsquo;re referring to a recent play in Altucher&rsquo;s True Alpha. James Altucher and Zach Scheidt recommended call options on the company in question, but how nice to hear that you piggybacked the performance with plain-vanilla shares. Well done!
(We&rsquo;re withholding the name and ticker because it&rsquo;s still a live trade&hellip;)
As for ethics and investing&hellip; I&rsquo;ve long cited a passage by the late newsletter legend Harry Browne: &ldquo;Maximizing profits and conforming to social policies are separate endeavors,&rdquo; he wrote in 1995. &ldquo;You can cater to one endeavor only at the expense of the other.
&ldquo;The stock exchange isn&rsquo;t a pulpit. If you want to promote a particular environmental policy, political philosophy or other personal enthusiasm, do it with the profits you make from hardheaded investing."
But everyone&rsquo;s got a red line, or should.
Remember that when you buy stock, you buy partial ownership in a company &mdash; however tiny that portion might be. If the company is engaged in activity that&rsquo;s glaringly at odds with your conscience, don&rsquo;t own it.
On the other hand&hellip; playing options on an objectionable company leaves your hands clean.
With options, you&rsquo;re not investing in these companies or funding their operations. A call option is, to use the classic definition, &ldquo;the right but not the obligation&rdquo; to buy shares at a certain price within a certain timeframe.
You&rsquo;re engaged in a speculation; the profits you make come entirely from the individuals or institutions on the other side of the trade.
So you might want to get going on options sooner rather than later. Paradigm has the perfect guide to get you started &mdash; <a href="https://concierge.paradigmpressgroup.com/post/paradigm-press-presents-the-ultimate-beginners-guide-to-stock-options">The Ultimate Beginner&rsquo;s Guide to Stock Options</a>.
Read and enjoy &mdash; and good luck!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

shutterstock 1680278362

Conservative “influencers” are manufacturing consent for surveillance abuses, while using the Los Angeles riots and protests as cover.

It’s Not Just the Illegals

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Fort Knox Fake-Out
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Now it can be told: There was never going to be a Trump-Musk audit of the gold at Fort Knox.
Remember that?
In February, Elon Musk picked up on social media chatter about an audit &mdash; even suggesting a live video walkthrough. Donald Trump was receptive, broaching the subject publicly on at least four occasions that month.
It had been over 50 years since the feds made even a nod toward transparency when it came to the government&rsquo;s gold stash at Fort Knox, Kentucky. We commemorated the 50th anniversary last fall&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6AZPc3HucvrXo4wOVJOCkl/ab64b36aba7489307c1919e80f5d4b40/1974tweet.png" alt="1974" width="540px" />
It was strictly a photo-op. Not an honest-to-goodness audit. The last time that happened, according to the Sound Money Defense League, was in 1953.
So hopes were high when Musk and Trump played up the possibility of a joint visit.
But as long ago as Feb. 27, our Jim Rickards said in this space that the event would be no more than another photo-op, bereft of any substance.
And of course, any chance even that much would take place has gone bye-bye &mdash; now that the Trump-Musk partnership has broken up in acrimony.
Today it&rsquo;s worth exploring two reasons Jim says a real audit was never in the cards&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> For starters, &ldquo;the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve do not want to call attention to gold&rsquo;s role as a monetary asset,&rdquo; says Jim.
&ldquo;The Fed (along with commercial banks) has a monopoly on the money printing press.
&ldquo;The government has done everything possible to diminish and deny the role of gold as money, beginning with FDR&rsquo;s confiscation of gold from U.S. citizens in 1933 and continuing through Nixon&rsquo;s closing of the gold window for foreign trading partners in 1971. At this point, we have three generations of students since 1971 who know almost nothing about gold.
&ldquo;Gold is not taught in economics classes. Gold is not discussed in economic or Fed policy circles. Younger students don&rsquo;t even know that the U.S. was ever on a gold standard or that gold once circulated freely as a form of money (usually in &frac14;-ounce or 8-gram coins). The government has eradicated any memory of gold as money. Why bring it back to life with a high-profile visit to Fort Knox? Better just to ignore gold if you want to maintain your money monopoly.&rdquo;
Among the powers that be, it&rsquo;s in no one&rsquo;s interest to call attention to gold&rsquo;s role as a form of money.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Who Holds Rights to Gold in Fort Knox?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;There&rsquo;s another even more insidious reason why Trump and Musk backed off from their Fort Knox visit,&rdquo; Jim goes on.
To be clear, Jim believes the gold is there. &ldquo;The deeper question,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;is whether that gold is leased.&rdquo;
Even if you&rsquo;re a longtime reader familiar with how this scheme works, it&rsquo;s worth a revisit: Gold leasing is how the owner of a gold bar can earn a return.
&ldquo;Gold does not pay dividends or interest like stocks and bonds,&rdquo; Jim reminds us. &ldquo;But you can lease it to a third party and make 2% or so annually in lease payments.&rdquo;
Key point: &ldquo;The party leasing the gold does not back up a truck and take it away. The gold stays in the original vault. Gold leasing is a purely paper transaction.
&ldquo;The gold lessor gets the lease payment. The lessee gets what&rsquo;s called a right of rehypothecation. That means the lessee can lease the same gold to another party. And that party can lease it to a fourth party and so on. With rehypothecation in play, one metric ton of gold could support 100 metric tons of &lsquo;paper gold&rsquo; transactions.&rdquo;
If this sounds problematic, you&rsquo;re right.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;The danger is obvious. It&rsquo;s no different than any run on the bank when it comes to bank deposits,&rdquo; says Jim.
&ldquo;If a group of paper gold investors suddenly demands physical delivery, the counterparties have to buy gold in the spot market since the leased gold is not in their physical possession. The gold market is liquid, but not liquid enough to support delivery if there were demand for physical by more than a small slice of the paper gold market.
&ldquo;A full-scale gold panic could emerge quickly. The spot price of gold would go to $25,000 per ounce before an investor could yell, &lsquo;Buy!&rsquo;
&ldquo;I take it that someone (possibly Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent) sat down and patiently explained the paper gold reality to Trump and Musk. Once you understand how the market actually works, you quickly back away from putting on a show at Fort Knox.
&ldquo;For the masterminds of the paper gold market at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, the less said about gold the better. They need to keep the game going.&rdquo;

[Editor&rsquo;s note: If you&rsquo;re reading this, you still haven&rsquo;t claimed your financial war protection package &mdash; a box of items selected by Jim Rickards to help protect you from a crisis he believes is only weeks away from breaking out.
It&rsquo;s about the size of a shoebox. And it&rsquo;s in our warehouse, waiting for you.
Of course, we don&rsquo;t have an unlimited supply. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2448367">Please review this message from our customer care chief to learn how to claim yours</a>.]

<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But hold on: Four members of Congress have introduced a bill requiring an honest-to-goodness audit.
The Gold Reserve Transparency Act requires a full assay, inventory and audit.
And more: As Jp Cortez of the Sound Money Defense League writes, it would &ldquo;also require full disclosure of all transactions involving America's gold, including any purchases, sales, loans, pledges, leases, swaps and other encumbrances, dating back 50 years. Such activities have not been publicly disclosed.
"Only a thorough audit, not a public-relations stunt such as the 'live walkthrough' as Elon Musk and others proposed, will suffice" for transparency, says Cortez.
Sponsors include Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), Troy Nehls (R-Texas) and Addison McDowell (R-North Carolina).
"Americans deserve transparency and accountability from the institutions that underpin our currency," says Massie.
We&rsquo;re not holding our breath that this bill will sail through Congress &mdash; but we&rsquo;ll keep tabs regardless.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Trade Talks Sabotaged Before They Began?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The stock market begins a new week treading water &mdash; perhaps awaiting headlines from a new round of U.S.-China trade talks, underway as we write in London.
We don&rsquo;t have any special knowledge, but we suspect the talks got off to a rough start.
No sooner did Donald Trump and Xi Jinping get off the phone last Thursday than the Commerce Department suspended export licenses for U.S. firms that want to sell equipment for Chinese nuclear power plants.
Among the U.S. companies affected are Westinghouse (owned these days by a Canadian consortium) and Emerson (EMR).
Gee, just when it seemed the tensions were easing and maybe Beijing might loosen its restrictions on rare earth exports to the United States&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> In any event, the major U.S. averages are mixed &mdash; the Dow down, the Nasdaq up, the S&amp;P 500 flat.
The S&amp;P ended last week a hair over 6,000 and is holding that level at last check, if barely.
In the precious metals complex, there&rsquo;s no stopping silver right now &mdash; up another 66 cents or 1.8% to $36.56. Gold&rsquo;s gain is more modest &mdash; $17 or a half percent to $3,326. Crude has pushed over $65 a barrel for the first time in over two months.
Bitcoin is starting the week in the green, approaching $108,000.
The big economic number of the week comes Wednesday when the Labor Department issues the official inflation rate.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Milei&rsquo;s Gift to the Pope
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Hmmm&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5vi0qSfUazhNVrF2g8lPRQ/c377544202a62f9f5f80d3fe659de79c/TakingHayekSeriously.png" alt="Taking Hayek Seriously" width="540px" />
Argentina&rsquo;s free-market president Javier Milei paid a call on Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican this weekend.
Milei was seen presenting the pope with a copy of a landmark book by the Nobel prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek &mdash; The Fatal Conceit.
Hayek was a leader among the 20th-century Austrian School economists. The Fatal Conceit was published a few years before his death in 1992.
On one level, the book is a takedown of socialism. On another level, it&rsquo;s a powerful summation of Hayek&rsquo;s signature insight from over 70 years of study &mdash; that an economy is far too complex for any government official or central banker to issue commands and expect predictable results.
That is, the economy is not a machine &mdash; push a button here, pull a lever there. It&rsquo;s a complex ecosystem with more interdependencies than any bureaucrat or group of bureaucrats could possibly understand. Their interventions inevitably result in second-order effects and unintended consequences.
Or as Milei explained in Spanish &mdash; one of five languages in which the pope is fluent &mdash; "Trying to control the levers of the economy is a fatal conceit. It's like believing oneself to be God."
We&rsquo;re not altogether familiar with the American pope&rsquo;s views on economics, but he doesn&rsquo;t seem thrilled with his gift in that screengrab!
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Misunderstandings, Musk
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />I confess to misunderstanding a reader who submitted a contribution for the mailbag <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/phase-two">in Thursday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
&ldquo;Dave, your missives are so needed. But just because I said things like Ukraine&rsquo;s drone attack would bring Putin to the table was not by any means an &lsquo;OK with it.&rsquo;
&ldquo;I&rsquo;m not OK with ANY of it.
&ldquo;I&rsquo;m glad you could use my remark to make a point. But when I saw Mitt Romney excoriate Trump during the 2016 campaign, then publicly beg for the secretary of state job immediately after Trump won, I knew the &lsquo;Ukraine plan&rsquo; was a huge deal for the deep state. Something they could not let go of.
&ldquo;I lived through the &lsquo;duck and cover&rsquo; age. It was my generation&rsquo;s global warming fear porn. It&rsquo;s a mess.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Meanwhile a couple of readers weighed in over the weekend after our hot take on <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trump-musk-all-kayfabe">the rift between Elon Musk and Donald Trump</a>&hellip;
&ldquo;I would argue that the point of the dustup between Musk and Trump is that Tesla stock had been tanking,&rdquo; says one.
&ldquo;Musk was the darling of the left and Tesla was all the rage until Musk went MAGA. Admittedly it started when he bought the left's sacred sandbox, Twitter, but actually joining the Trump administration was the last straw. Then the left peacefully torched Tesla dealerships. Musk has to stage a break with Trump to save his bottom line.&rdquo;
Says another: &ldquo;I think Elon&rsquo;s replacement &lsquo;special government employee&rsquo; should be chosen by Sen. Rand Paul, a proven generational advocate for government efficiency and service to the American people.
&ldquo;THANKS for all your tireless dedication to the true spirit and trust of journalism!&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> I didn&rsquo;t have room for this observation in Friday&rsquo;s edition&hellip; but the one instance where Musk seriously misstepped last week was when he went &ldquo;full Epstein.&rdquo; 
And no, this wasn&rsquo;t some sort of 3-D chess move coordinated with Trump.
As the theory goes, Musk saying that Trump turns up in the Jeffrey Epstein files is supposed to prod Democrats to demand the immediate release of those files and finally the truth will out.
In the first place, Democrats are holding their tongues.
In the second place, we already know Trump crossed paths with Epstein; it would be no surprise if Trump&rsquo;s name turns up in the files, but that does not implicate him in any wrongdoing.
Finally, it&rsquo;s a terrible look for Musk to say something like that after leaving government service. If the suggestion is that Trump committed wrongdoing, he should have spoken up the moment he knew.
No, it&rsquo;s just one more instance of Musk being Musk. Remember when he called a British cave diver &ldquo;pedo guy&rdquo;?
Even Musk realized he went too far with his Trump-Epstein post &mdash; judging by the fact he deleted it over the weekend&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

P.S. Congratulations to readers of Ray Blanco&rsquo;s Catalyst Trader &mdash; who pulled in 125% gains last week on an AI company leading the way in specialty semiconductors.
There&rsquo;s another opportunity on Ray&rsquo;s radar right now with even bigger profit potential &mdash; a microcap firm that could change everything we know about the treatment of cancer.
<a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2448447">As Ray shows you in this exclusive briefing</a>, this company has a profit catalyst on the calendar just six weeks from now. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2448447">Watch here</a>.

FortKnox0609

Now it can be told: There was never going to be a Trump-Musk audit of the gold at Fort Knox.

Fort Knox Fake-Out

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Trump-Musk: All &ldquo;Kayfabe&rdquo;?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The kiss-and-make-up session is on, the kiss-and-make-up session is off.
Day 2 of the epic Trump-Musk meltdown is all about when and under what circumstances the two might start to reconcile.
We won&rsquo;t get into the blow-by-blow of Day 1 &mdash; which you can read anywhere and you&rsquo;re probably familiar with already.
(Truly, it was like the car crash you can&rsquo;t help looking at.)
The stock market was in the green before the two started s***posting at midday. But at day&rsquo;s end, the S&amp;P 500 was down more than half a percent. Tesla makes up about 2% of the index and TSLA logged a 14.3% drop &mdash; its biggest one-day loss on record.
Late last night, Politico posted an article saying that White House aides &ldquo;scheduled a call Friday with the billionaire CEO of Tesla to broker a peace.&rdquo;
But this morning, the president told CNN he won&rsquo;t be involved in any such call himself &mdash; saying the two won&rsquo;t speak &ldquo;for a while&rdquo; and that he&rsquo;s &ldquo;not even thinking about&rdquo; Musk.
It would be no surprise if the dynamic changes again by the time you read this.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> There&rsquo;s a theory circulated by armchair pundits that all of this is &ldquo;kayfabe&rdquo; &mdash; to borrow a term from pro wrestling, something Trump has been involved with for decades.
The term simply means that rivalries and other dramas inside and outside the ring are all for show, staged for the audience&rsquo;s entertainment.
Assume for the moment that&rsquo;s the case: What would be the purpose?
Sorry, we don&rsquo;t buy it. As the independent reporter and astute political observer Michael Tracey tweets: &ldquo;Is there any historical analog for a White House senior adviser who quit and immediately campaigned to tank the president's signature legislation, denounced him as an ungrateful liar, accused him of child sex trafficking and causing a recession and called for him to be impeached?&rdquo;
Besides, why would Trump and Musk do something to potentially divide the loyalties of MAGA Nation?
The sheer volume of vitriol on Musk&rsquo;s part suggests he was off his meds &mdash; or on something else.
But none of it is a long-term deal-breaker for his credibility. Everyone knows Musk can be mercurial; it comes with the territory of investing with him. The only difference is how the tendency manifested itself yesterday in such spectacular fashion.
Seen in that context, it&rsquo;s little surprise that TSLA is up 7.2% as we write this morning.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Also note how quickly Musk backed down on one particular threat&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/37mqnyRylCvI2LJwK8loPk/a23196581fd41625becb873f3e8b32d5/Elon-tweet.png" alt="elon tweet" width="540px" />
After an X user urged Musk to &ldquo;cool off and take a step back for a couple days,&rdquo; Musk replied: &ldquo;Ok, we won&rsquo;t decommission Dragon.&rdquo;
Whether they like it or not, Musk&rsquo;s SpaceX and Trump&rsquo;s administration are much too dependent on each other for either side to walk away from their space partnership.
Dragon, as a reminder, is the only way American astronauts can reach the International Space Station. NASA is increasingly reliant on SpaceX for its many launches. And don&rsquo;t forget SpaceX&rsquo;s valuable Starlink division, with an unmatched network of low Earth orbit satellites the government also needs access to.

<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Indeed, nothing that&rsquo;s happened in the last 24 hours alters the investment case for SpaceX.
Now as you likely know, SpaceX is not publicly traded. Only the high rollers of finance have access &mdash; a fact that gets under the skin of Paradigm Press publisher Matt Insley.
Then again, Matt recently learned from a venture capitalist friend about a <a href="https://pro.crowdability.com/m/2446925">hidden backdoor</a>. &ldquo;Just type in four letters,&rdquo; Matt says, &ldquo;and you can get pre-IPO exposure to SpaceX <a href="https://pro.crowdability.com/m/2446925">on the stock exchange</a> &mdash; even though it&rsquo;s private.
<a id="2"></a>
&ldquo;Plus, my buddy is giving you the <a href="https://pro.crowdability.com/m/2446925">ticker symbol for FREE, just for watching today</a>.&rdquo;
Only one catch: This presentation goes offline tomorrow night at midnight. <a href="https://pro.crowdability.com/m/2446925">Click to watch now, while you still can</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />PLTR&rsquo;s &ldquo;Bud Light&rdquo; Moment
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If it weren&rsquo;t for Trump and Musk, the biggest market story yesterday would have been the sudden stumble of market darling Palantir Technologies.
The story begins a week ago today, when The New York Times published the splashy headline &ldquo;Trump Taps Palantir to Compile Data on Americans.&rdquo;
On the basis of an executive order Trump signed in March, the administration is increasingly turning to Palantir to make it easier for federal agencies to share data with each other &mdash; raising the prospect of whether Trump &ldquo;might compile a master list of personal information on Americans that could give him untold surveillance power.&rdquo;
Under the amoral logic of Wall Street, PLTR shares rallied 7.7% that day. By Tuesday of this week, Palantir closed at an all-time high.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> While Wall Street partied, pockets of MAGA Nation sounded the alarm.
Suddenly, everyday conservatives were discovering what we&rsquo;ve noted now and then for years: PLTR was founded in 2003 with seed money from In-Q-Tel, the CIA&rsquo;s venture capital arm.
They also learned the CIA was Palantir&rsquo;s only client for the first several years of the firm&rsquo;s existence.
And via the work of <a href="https://unlimitedhangout.com/2024/07/investigative-reports/the-man-behind-trumps-vp-pick-its-worse-than-you-think/">the online muckraker Whitney Webb</a>, they learned Palantir&rsquo;s entire reason for being &mdash; to give the feds cover for doing things that the Constitution forbids the feds to do themselves.
Remember the creepy <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Information_Awareness">&ldquo;Total Information Awareness&rdquo;</a> surveillance program launched about 18 months after the 9/11 attacks? Civil liberties activists objected loudly enough that the feds shut it down &mdash; only to put many of its operations under PLTR&rsquo;s auspices.
The tweets and memes this week have been voluminous&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/RjkprQEjbUcY6VW5WOv22/091f6987a5f086861526269060c6cc59/TheQuarteringTweet.png" alt="The Quartering" width="540px" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6irgsT5B6QxFaVinaNijft/265d4ec98e250b34e8e4013af8a55eee/WallStreetApes-06.png" alt="Wall Street apes" width="540px" /> <img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4zsZVvyNke58KkLNhNVDxy/4db3d35e20a4d8355a6b1a74f60d3d50/Palantir.png" alt="Palantir" width="540px" />
On Tuesday, Palantir labeled the Times story &ldquo;blatantly untrue. Palantir never collects data to unlawfully surveil Americans.&rdquo;
As the &ldquo;Uncommon Sense&rdquo; account on X pointed out, &ldquo;Palantir is not lying here. They don&rsquo;t illegally spy on people, they legally spy on people, and your government allows them to do it.&rdquo;
Yesterday, Palantir CEO Alex Karp felt compelled to do an interview on CNBC, declaring his company is &ldquo;not surveilling Americans&rdquo; at all.
Reaction across the political spectrum was hostile&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1QtbMu6xkUmdzGS8Vo5w6W/f5ea823641596f3073fe1475f8a3340b/PowertothePeople.png" alt="power to the people" width="540px" />
&hellip; and PLTR ended the day down 7.8%.
Thing is, unlike Bud Light or Target or John Deere, Palantir has no &ldquo;customer-facing brand&rdquo; that everyday folks can boycott. Nor are there any, say, Palantir-branded surveillance cameras they can vandalize.
All they can do is dump PLTR stock if they own it&hellip; or persuade other people to dump it if they don&rsquo;t.
Checking our screens this morning, Palantir is up about 3.8%. Perhaps as with Tesla, the big drop was a one-day affair. Then again, it might be the start of something. We&rsquo;ll keep you in the loop&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Jobs: Clearing a Low Bar
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The good news is that the monthly job numbers came in a bit better than expected this morning. The bad news is that expectations were low.
The wonks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics conjured 139,000 new jobs for May. The previous two months&rsquo; numbers were revised down.
So for the last three months, the average number of new jobs works out to a little over 135,000. That&rsquo;s down meaningfully from the last quarter of 2024 (209,000). As a reminder, it takes 150,000&ndash;200,000 now jobs each month just to keep up with population growth.
Most of the growth took place in health care and leisure-hospitality. Manufacturing jobs, in contrast, shrank by 8,000.
Federal government jobs fell by 22,000 &mdash; just under 1% of the federal workforce. Go figure: DOGE is finally starting to have a measurable impact on federal employment just as it&rsquo;s folding its tent.
The official unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Still low by historical standards, still higher than most of 2022&ndash;23.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Amid that backdrop, the major U.S. stock indexes are shaking off whatever jitters they were feeling yesterday.
As was the case in the hours before the Trump-Musk kerfuffle broke out, the S&amp;P 500 is knocking on the door of 6,000 &mdash; up almost 1% from yesterday&rsquo;s close. The Nasdaq&rsquo;s gain is stronger, the Dow&rsquo;s weaker.
Silver continues to rally and is *this* close to ending the week over $36. Gold is losing ground but not much, the bid $3,334. Crude is up over a buck to $64.52, the highest since mid-April.
Bitcoin sank to near $101,000 overnight but is now back to nearly $105,000.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />A couple of more giggles from the Trump-Musk dustup&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/jFRV8zfyoFYfO0Zcg9vyE/16e95181743aa1d4a31516c7dbe91237/Trump-MuskComic.png" alt="comic" width="450px" />
If you&rsquo;re a bit fuzzy on the historical reference, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_images_in_the_Soviet_Union">a quick glance at this Wikipedia page</a> will serve as a reminder.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Finally, this insight courtesy of your editor&rsquo;s wife&hellip;
&ldquo;So I guess we&rsquo;re not getting our $5,000 <a href="https://www.heraldmailmedia.com/story/news/2025/05/22/doge-dividend-checks-see-update-on-status-and-qualifications/83769424007/">DOGE dividend</a>?&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Time Flies
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />A belated acknowledgment to everyone who wrote in after two of last week&rsquo;s editions &mdash; reprises of previous musings about <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/a-totalitarian-bureaucracy-within-our-shores">the military-industrial complex</a> and <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/luigi-mangione-isnt-the-problem">the health care cartel</a>.
With another week already gone by, I&rsquo;ll simply have to thank everyone who wrote in with their thoughtful responses. We really do have the smartest and most engaged readership in all of financial publishing.
(And to the veteran who agreed with me about the military-industrial complex but thought the Memorial Day timing was in poor taste &mdash; I totally get where you&rsquo;re coming from. Thank you for taking the time to speak up.)
We&rsquo;ll give the final word to a reader who sought to weigh in on both of those industries&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I appreciated your recent musings highlighting the immense public funds flowing into America's military-industrial complex and the health care sector &mdash; both effectively government-sponsored monopolies. While the system is on a trajectory to break, the powers that be will not take action while the music is still playing.
&ldquo;We are watching the perpetual &lsquo;money game,&rsquo; where cunning actors ingeniously seek paths to wealth and power. Ideally, they prefer the easiest route &mdash; taking money rather than creating genuine value. Government emerges as the most lucrative and accessible conduit to funnel public funds from the masses into private hands under the noble-sounding guise of national defense or public health.
&ldquo;This strategy is straightforward and astonishingly effective: Invest relatively small amounts of money in politicians through campaign contributions and lobbying efforts and reap exponential returns through government contracts, subsidies and protective legislation. The military-industrial complex and the health care industry serve as ideal laundering mechanisms, converting public resources into concentrated private gains.
&ldquo;Thus, politicians' inertia, including Trump and the current Republican legislative menagerie, is not accidental. They have no incentive to dismantle or even reduce these sectors, as doing so would disrupt the machinery that sustains their power and enriches their benefactors.
&ldquo;Thank you for shining a spotlight on this game. Your voice is crucial in exposing that which thrives in the shadows of public ignorance and political complicity.
&ldquo;Hell of a time to be an American.&rdquo;
Dave responds: It&rsquo;s as good a moment as any to cue up my favorite George Carlin rant&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2yk2fYaWEMzVzW5AED2yiU/9b1aebadae7046e0f511a9b96cb07092/George.png" alt="George Carlin" width="540px" />
Have a good weekend,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Trump-Elon

There’s a theory circulated by armchair pundits that the Trump-Musk meltdown is “kayfabe” — to borrow a term from pro wrestling. 