<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Meme Stock Crowd Grows Up
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Oh no, not this again&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3SByoua86Ok4x1Y2GKNcCZ/2c5a2d3168679f1395537e99de21d720/NYT.png" alt="new york times" width="540px" />
Remember early 2021, when a bunch of investing neophytes bid up the share prices of left-for-dead companies like GameStop and AMC Entertainment?
They&rsquo;re back this week &mdash; only this time the objects of their affection are Krispy Kreme, Opendoor, Rocket Mortgage and Kohl&rsquo;s. Given Krispy Kreme&rsquo;s ticker symbol of DNUT, the foursome has been christened as the DORK stocks.
As the week has gone on, other names have similarly gotten hot. Like GameStop back in the day, some of them have nostalgia value for millennials or Gen-Zers &mdash; such as American Eagle Outfitters and GoPro, the company that makes those forehead-mounted cameras for surfers, skydivers and what-not&hellip;

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1wiQDczZvlPYXm8p6Ho9bW/dff68d5bfcf7850f05005e5d2fee0939/GoPro.png" alt="GoPro" width="300px" />

Nostalgia trip: GoPro founder Nick Woodman during the company&rsquo;s 2014 heyday&hellip;
Then as now, the ramp-ups in share price are swift &mdash; followed by equally swift plunges.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But this isn&rsquo;t 2021 anymore. The meme stock kids have grown up. 
The mainstream pearl-clutching that accompanied the 2021 frenzy is mostly missing this time &mdash; that &ldquo;unserious&rdquo; bit above from The New York Times notwithstanding.
Back then, it was absolutely insufferable. For instance, New York magazine&rsquo;s business editor&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4tNdWWaKd9oM2FJqxF4Hnk/fddf5729627fd4eb6b6c4d18e861c9f7/Josh.png" alt="josh tweet" width="540px" />
The politicians piped up, too: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) demanded regulators step in to ensure markets &ldquo;reflect real value&rdquo; &mdash; as if that were something government officials are capable of determining.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> What the media and the politicians didn&rsquo;t understand was that the meme stock phenomenon of 2021 had its origins in the financial crisis of 2008.
<a href="https://5minforecast.com/2021/02/01/the-millennials-revenge/">We saw it plain as day</a>: The meme stock crowd came of age living in mom&rsquo;s basement after graduation, navigating a miserable job market. And that&rsquo;s assuming mom hadn&rsquo;t been foreclosed on.
As the 2010s wore on, their existences were defined by crushing student debt and underemployment as baristas and Uber drivers &mdash; and even those jobs went away with COVID lockdowns.
But with lockdown came &ldquo;stimmy&rdquo; checks. These folks had time to spare and money to burn. And they had a grudge against everyone who got bailed out in 2008.
&ldquo;I vividly remember the enormous repercussions that the reckless actions by those on Wall Street had in my personal life,&rdquo; said a typical post on Reddit&rsquo;s WallStreetBets forum. &ldquo;We lived off of pancake mix, and powdered milk and beans and rice for a year.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />But it seems the mainstream has made its peace with the meme stock crowd now.
By and large, there are no articles tut-tutting about young adults who have no idea what they&rsquo;re getting into. They knew very well then, and they know very well now.
At Yahoo Finance, Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers describes the attitude of meme-stock traders in terms reminiscent of any bull market. "Everything they&rsquo;ve been trying has been working for them. If the basic stuff&rsquo;s working, why not try a bit more speculative stuff?"
&ldquo;Meme stock traders are no longer a punchline,&rdquo; says the Axios site &mdash; which quotes an analyst at RBC named Amy Wu Silverman. These traders, she says, have a "savviness that is very interesting to me that wasn't there 10 years ago.&rdquo;
Good on them. Still, there&rsquo;s a cynicism at work here &mdash; or what my acquaintance Demetri Kofinas, host of the Hidden Forces podcast, calls &ldquo;financial nihilism.&rdquo;
It&rsquo;s an attitude in which investing is not about macroeconomic forces or traditional valuation metrics like sales and earnings. It&rsquo;s about the creation of a narrative &mdash; and the ability of enough people to move an asset by sheer force of their numbers.
If, like me, you come from an older generation and can&rsquo;t relate to this approach, much less put it to work in your portfolio&hellip; at least you have to understand it.
Meme stocks, memecoins, zero-dated options &mdash; they&rsquo;re all, in their way, a totally logical response to what the economist Kurt Richebacher called &ldquo;late-stage degenerate capitalism&rdquo; &mdash; Big Business in bed with Big Government, the dollar&rsquo;s purchasing power cratering, a hollowed-out middle class.
Like it or not, this is the world in which we invest now. Adapt or die&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Seven Days
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It&rsquo;s now seven days before Donald Trump&rsquo;s tariff deadline &mdash; and even the handful of done deals looks shaky at best.
Barring any further trade agreements, &ldquo;reciprocal&rdquo; tariffs will kick in next Friday against about 50 countries. The administration has struck deals with a half-dozen so far &mdash; most recently Japan this week.
But as Japan&rsquo;s Nikkei news service reports today, &ldquo;Details released by the White House on its tariff agreement with Japan include many points that are unclear or out of sync with how Tokyo has explained it, including the date it goes into effect and the framework for Japanese investment in the U.S.&rdquo;
For instance &mdash; Trump&rsquo;s announcement that Japan will invest $550 billion in U.S. projects. As Nikkei points out, &ldquo;The sum involved exceeds the Japanese government's tax revenue for a full year.&rdquo;
Between the tariff deadline, any fallout from the next Federal Reserve meeting and the job numbers due a week from today&hellip; next week could be mighty interesting for the markets.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> But that&rsquo;s then and this is now. &ldquo;Despite new record highs, the averages are barely budging this week,&rdquo; colleague Greg Guenthner observes at The Trading Desk.
The S&amp;P 500 notched another record close yesterday &mdash; and it&rsquo;s up another quarter percent today to 6,378. The Nasdaq is also in record territory after closing over 21,000 for the first time Wednesday.
&ldquo;We have to respect this market strength,&rdquo; says Greg. &ldquo;I know I&rsquo;ve talked a lot about how stocks are overextended and need to cool down. But what I think doesn&rsquo;t matter &mdash; and markets can stay overbought for much longer than you might think.&rdquo;
Precious metals have been grinding lower during the back half of this week. Gold is down $100 since Tuesday &mdash; the bid $3,329 at last check. And while silver will likely conclude a third-straight week over $38, it was over comfortably over $39 on Wednesday. Bitcoin is losing ground, now barely holding the line on $115,000.&nbsp;
Crude&rsquo;s sideways action this week continues, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate fetching $65.63.
The big economic number of the day is durable goods orders &mdash; down 9.3% in June. That&rsquo;s not a huge shock; the previous month&rsquo;s number was skewed by a surge in orders for aircraft and military hardware. But if you strip those out, you get a nasty surprise &mdash; a drop of 0.7%. Among dozens of Wall Street economists surveyed by Econoday, every one of them expected the number to rise slightly.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Crime and Punishment
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The Trump administration is gearing up for a massive crackdown on tax evasion &mdash; not that the White House is framing it in those terms, of course.
Bearing in mind that tariffs are taxes, here&rsquo;s the start of a Bloomberg dispatch&hellip;
<blockquote>Federal prosecutors are laying the groundwork to criminally charge companies and individuals that try to evade U.S. tariffs as President Donald Trump readies a fresh round of levies next week.</blockquote>
<blockquote>American customs officials have long sought to thwart attempts to avoid duties using relatively common schemes like changing the country of origin on imports or misclassifying goods on forms. However, such issues historically have been handled through fines or civil settlements and seldom by criminal prosecution.</blockquote>
<blockquote>But now, the Justice Department says it&rsquo;s adding &ldquo;significant personnel&rdquo; to a new unit to focus on trade fraud and other corporate crimes. Meanwhile, prosecutors at U.S. attorneys offices have been requesting records of transactions involving foreign goods during the Biden administration as they look to build cases &mdash; setting up a potential blueprint for moving against those accused of shirking new tariffs.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />This enforcement campaign could get really interesting if the tariffs are ultimately struck down by the Supreme Court.
As you might recall from <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/unconstitutional">our May 9 edition</a>, several small businesses that rely on imported components for their goods are suing the feds. They argue the president has no authority to impose tariffs without the say-so of Congress &mdash; again, because tariffs are taxes.
In late May, a federal court ruled the case has enough merit to proceed &mdash; even while leaving Trump&rsquo;s tariff regime in place for the time being. The plaintiffs asked the Supreme Court to fast-track the case, but in June the justices turned down that request.
The case will almost certainly find its way to the Supreme Court eventually &mdash; but probably not during its term that starts this fall.
Imagine if the justices rule in, say, early 2027 that the Trump tariff regime is indeed unconstitutional.
Would the feds have to issue refunds to the affected businesses? That&rsquo;d blow a hole in the federal budget, given the surge in tariff revenue this year.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />We have nothing to say about the call that Trump paid on the Federal Reserve yesterday &mdash; other than <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trumps-favorite-whipping-boy">what we said on Tuesday</a> and this meme we spotted today.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5jVbIcrG5E2kmO3slzvyD9/d43ec6557e0cffeec62d8bdb508fd6dd/Trump.png" alt="trunp interest rates" width="540px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />From JFK to Jeffrey Epstein
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;I question the reference to Jeffrey Epstein as a financier,&rdquo; a reader writes after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/2025-update-from-jfk-to-jeffrey-epstein">Wednesday&rsquo;s edition</a> &mdash; a comprehensive follow-up to 2023&rsquo;s &ldquo;From JFK to Jeffrey Epstein.&rdquo;
&ldquo;What business did he ever raise money for? Did he ever obtain a bank loan or equity investment on behalf of any business? Did he invest any of his customer's funds in any business?
&ldquo;From what I've been able to discern, the answers to all these questions are no.
&ldquo;Maybe it's possible I'm overlooking something in his sordid history. If so, I'm willing to be educated on this. But the only finance-related activities I've been able to find that he engaged in were blackmail and extortion.&rdquo;
Dave responds: No, you&rsquo;re not overlooking a thing. That was at the heart of Vicky Ward&rsquo;s 2003 expose of Epstein for Vanity Fair: How did he come to acquire his vast wealth?
Literally no one she interviewed believed Epstein could support his lavish lifestyle simply by managing the money of billionaires and taking a commission.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I cannot express in words how profoundly well you've done with this topic. I could not agree more,&rdquo; writes another.
&ldquo;But what offends me the most and perplexes even my jaded self is the decision to not pursue the investigation. It is not about Epstein or his &lsquo;list&rsquo; per se. It is about those that preyed on young girls and abused them mercilessly and those victims, whose lives were forever altered.
&ldquo;The memo released by the DOJ/FBI was pretty carefully drafted in that it said that a review of existing materials did not provide enough evidence to prosecute. That's the right answer to the wrong question. The question should be why the investigation is ended&hellip; for good.
&ldquo;Is there an insurmountable statute of limitations? If not, then just like with any cold case, investigators need to see what they can find. If they can't find anything because the victims' memories are too unreliable, flight records don't exist, emails don't exist, videos don't exist, etc., where it can be shown that the people that are mentioned in the current files can't be charged or named, fine. But to just simply end an investigation and state none will be conducted in the future is the most problematic thing.
&ldquo;I can't tell whether Trump is directly being influenced or those that provide him information are the ones being influenced, but in either event, why Trump hasn't ordered an investigation into whether more evidence exists is beyond me.&rdquo;
Dave: Trump has decided it&rsquo;s a hoax ginned up by Democrats &mdash; even likening it to Russiagate now. That&rsquo;s his story and he&rsquo;s sticking to it.
The conclusion is inescapable, even if there&rsquo;s no smoking-gun evidence that&rsquo;s come to light: There&rsquo;s dirt in the Epstein files on both Republicans and Democrats &mdash; and now there&rsquo;s a joint effort to cover it up under the guise of yet another partisan food fight.
Same old, same old, sadly&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Meme-stock

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Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets is a daily e-letter covering the economy and the markets, reaching 120,000 paying subscribers of the renowned financial publishing firm Paradigm Press.

Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Remember early 2021, when a bunch of investing neophytes bid up the share prices of left-for-dead companies? They’re back this week. 

The DORK Trade 

unnamed

The power problems gripping the PJM region are getting worse. 

Got Flashlights? 

JFK-Epstein

Much has taken place on both the JFK and the Epstein fronts in six years. It’s time for a follow-up…

[2025 UPDATE] From JFK To Jeffrey Epstein

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />American Birthright, Now Powering AI
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Here&rsquo;s an interesting variation on the &ldquo;American birthright&rdquo; theme of Paradigm&rsquo;s Jim Rickards.
The Trump administration is opening up four parcels of federal land to host data centers &mdash; the better to meet AI&rsquo;s exploding demand for computing power.
As a reminder, the essence of the Birthright idea is that the Trump administration is keen to tap into the energy and mineral wealth on federal lands &mdash; a bounty valued at $150 trillion.
But with this new announcement, it&rsquo;s clear that Trump and his cabinet have more than mining and drilling in mind. Building data centers on federal property is also in the mix.
According to the NextGov website, &ldquo;the facilities include Idaho National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Reservation, Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant and Savannah River Site, where private sector partners will develop AI data center and energy generation infrastructure.&rdquo;
The announcement came last Thursday, hours after Donald Trump signed another executive order on AI.
&ldquo;By leveraging DOE land assets for the deployment of AI and energy infrastructure, we are taking a bold step to accelerate the next Manhattan Project &mdash; ensuring U.S. AI and energy leadership,&rdquo; says Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
&ldquo;These sites are uniquely positioned to host data centers as well as power generation to bolster grid reliability, strengthen our national security, and reduce energy costs.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &nbsp;&ldquo;The plan aims to address one of the largest challenges facing the energy sector,&rdquo; reports Politico&rsquo;s energy unit &ndash; &ldquo;how to find enough electricity to support a technology boom and ensure the United States stays competitive with China in developing AI technologies.
&ldquo;According to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, data centers could consume roughly 12% of U.S. electricity by 2028.&rdquo;
For the moment, it&rsquo;s too soon to suss out which companies might benefit from this announcement &ndash; and what an ideal investing strategy might be. We&rsquo;ll stay on the case, though.

<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Having said that, there&rsquo;s another development on the Birthright front that merits your immediate attention.
&ldquo;When I first released my &lsquo;American Birthright&rsquo; prediction,&rdquo; says our Jim Rickards, &ldquo;I thought this $150 trillion mineral boom would unfold slowly.&rdquo;
Jim figured on an 18-24 month timeframe. But everything changed when China imposed export controls on rare-earth elements &ndash; and the Trump administration responded quickly.
Bottom line: &ldquo;Three small companies stand to profit the most from President Trump&rsquo;s mineral initiatives,&rdquo; says Jim. &ldquo;My research shows these three companies could dominate a $100 billion market within the next 12 months &ndash; creating potential gains of over 1,000% each.&rdquo;
To learn how you can collect your share from what Jim calls &ldquo;Phase II&rdquo; of the Birthright story, <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2463223">just follow this link</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />A Week of Thrills &lsquo;n&rsquo; Chills! (Yawn)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;This could be the most consequential week for the economy in years,&rdquo; CNN tells us.
Wow! It might be the most unforgettable week since <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2018/06/11/unforgettable-week-already-forgetting/">the week of June 11, 2018</a> &mdash; when Bloomberg said we should brace ourselves for &ldquo;the world economy&rsquo;s most important week of the year.&rdquo;
The G-7 summit had just wrapped up, Donald Trump was meeting with North Korea&rsquo;s Kim Jong Un, most of the world&rsquo;s major central banks were holding meetings or issuing statements&hellip;
Yeah, you don&rsquo;t remember any of that, do you?
But this is what the media does now and then to try to command your attention.
Don&rsquo;t get us wrong: CNN&rsquo;s laundry list this morning is, if nothing else, comprehensive: &ldquo;A slew of crucial economic data is set for release this week, including the jobs report, inflation, consumer confidence and corporate earnings. We&rsquo;ll get the first glimpse at America&rsquo;s second-quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy.
&ldquo;And, most crucially, the Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut rates or hold steady one more time. As if that weren&rsquo;t enough, Trump&rsquo;s trade policies also come due&hellip;&rdquo;
All of it is short-term consequential, and we&rsquo;ll of course keep tabs on it. But the media needs to get a grip: A few years hence, no one&rsquo;s going to look back on the week of July 28, 2025 and say, Whoa, that changed everything!
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Amid the backdrop of a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, the major U.S. stock indexes start the week barely in the green.
Only four more days remain before Trump&rsquo;s self-imposed tariff deadline: If other countries don&rsquo;t come to terms, Washington will impose tariffs at or near the levels announced on &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; last April 2.
Yesterday, Trump reached an agreement with EU leaders &mdash; in which Europe&rsquo;s exports to America will be subject to a 15% tariff.
But once again, the details are fuzzy. Supposedly Europe is going to buy $250 billion of American energy every year for the next three years.
That&rsquo;s going to be a steep climb based on this Bloomberg chart, drawn on figures from the EU&rsquo;s statistics agency Eurostat.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2yj6nVJjFKtBqqGQUBUVYJ/366aed7a253e72bf7afdc0a08a3deec8/EU-energy.png" alt="EU energy" width="540px" />
In a similar vein, we&rsquo;re now learning how Japan is going to be &ldquo;investing&rdquo; $550 billion in U.S. projects under its deal struck with Washington last week. Turns out that according to Japan&rsquo;s chief negotiator, at least 98% of that total will be in the form of loans.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />At the same time, some other trade-and-tariff deadlines are shifting&hellip;
<ul>
<li>The August 12 target to reach a deal with China will likely be pushed back another 90 days. U.S. and Chinese negotiators are meeting today in Stockholm, Sweden</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Trump has suddenly shortened the September 2 deadline for Russia to reach a cease-fire with Ukraine. Now he says it&rsquo;s &ldquo;10-12 days.&rdquo; So, no later than Aug. 9 &ndash; at which point Russia&rsquo;s trading partners will supposedly be subject to &ldquo;secondary tariffs&rdquo; of 100%.</li>
</ul>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> In the meantime, the S&amp;P 500 is still inching higher into record territory &mdash; up five points at last check and only seven points away from the 6,400 mark. The Nasdaq is also up a tad from Friday&rsquo;s record close.
Gold continues to lose ground after last week&rsquo;s smackdown &mdash; off another $23 to $3,312. Silver is flat at $38.08. Bitcoin hovers just over $118,000.
The big mover today is crude &mdash; up 2% at $66.49 after the OPEC+ nations announced no changes to their current production policy.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Most Hated Tax Cut In History (Still)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Donald Trump might be proud of his &ldquo;Big, Beautiful Bill&rdquo; but a majority of Americans don&rsquo;t care for it, if a Wall Street Journal poll is to be believed.
The poll finds only 42% of those surveyed supporting the bill, while 52% oppose it. Obviously there&rsquo;s a huge partisan split&hellip; but among independents, 54% disapprove.
&ldquo;Nearly 70% of overall poll respondents said the law would help the wealthy,&rdquo; says the WSJ summary &mdash; &ldquo;while just 7% said that group would be hurt. At least half of poll respondents said the legislation would harm poor people, the working class, Social Security beneficiaries, the U.S. economy, Medicaid recipients, nutrition-assistance recipients and the federal budget deficit.&rdquo;
None of this is especially surprising. Trump was fixated on a kitchen-sink tax-and-spending bill that in its final form ran to 887 pages.
There was no effort to sell the American people on the necessity of the bill&rsquo;s most important provision &mdash; making the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent. No one was out there screaming to folks that if Congress didn&rsquo;t act, Obama-era tax rates would come back. No one warned folks in the 22% tax bracket that they&rsquo;d be going back to 25%, for example.
Really, how many people were even aware of that possibility?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Then again, the Trump 45 administration screwed the PR pooch with the original tax cuts, too.
&ldquo;The Most Hated Tax Cut In History&rdquo; I called it <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2019/04/09/the-most-hated-tax-cut-in-history/">one day in 2019</a>.
For too many Americans, the benefits of the tax cuts were <a href="https://5minforecast.com/2019/04/15/the-tax-cut-almost-no-one-noticed/">neither tangible nor visible</a>.
<blockquote>➢ Contrast all of this with the Dubya Bush tax cuts early in this century &mdash; when folks got a check in the mail.</blockquote>
Supposedly the GOP learned its lesson this time around, says the Journal: &ldquo;Some new tax cuts started this year and will show up in larger tax refunds in early 2026 &mdash; before the midterms. That was an intentional choice in contrast to the 2017 tax law.&rdquo;
We shall see&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" /> Passings: Tom Lehrer
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Just in case you&rsquo;re of a certain age &ndash; honestly your editor is too young &ndash; the song satirist Tom Lehrer has died. He was 97.
Lehrer&rsquo;s imagination summoned a brilliantly mordant take on nuclear war &ndash; <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/avoidable-armageddon">a topic we muse on in this space</a> now and then because there won&rsquo;t be any economy or markets for us to write about if nukes start flying.
Enjoy this rendition of &ldquo;We Will All Go Together When We Go&rdquo;...
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4PI6Cpe69MKWFEUdb7zKmt/af616a9cd5b23a09e86216dfc0d7e113/youtube.png" alt="youtube" width="540px" />
Lehrer wrote and performed little after the early 1970s &ndash; perhaps because, as he once remarked, &ldquo;Political satire became obsolete when Henry Kissinger was awarded the Nobel peace prize.&rdquo;
At least Lehrer had the satisfaction of seeing Henry the K kick the bucket first. RIP&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />&ldquo;We Used To Make **** In This Country&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;JOB WELL DONE!!&rdquo; a reader enthuses after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/2025-update-from-jfk-to-jeffrey-epstein">our 2025 update</a> of &ldquo;From JFK To Jeffrey Epstein.&rdquo;
But he wishes for more&hellip;
&ldquo;I would like to see your indepth analysis a bit more tied to the &lsquo;numbers&rsquo; of how our markets behaved or the impact on the GDP or other measures.
&ldquo;Perhaps more simply put: Correlate the JFK killing to financial/economic etc. changes &mdash; on a yearly basis? &mdash; up to Epstein's death. How all the fine points you are making may have impacted our economy/investments/returns, etc.?
&ldquo;I very much appreciate the history but request that your findings be tied more to what happened to our economy from the early 1960s to today. THANKS!&rdquo;
Dave responds: An intriguing inquiry&hellip; but this isn&rsquo;t a case where stock market averages or GDP figures tell the whole story.
Obviously both of them have soared in the last six decades. But what about the rising standard of living and the shared sense of middle-class prosperity that marked the era between the end of World War II in 1945 and JFK&rsquo;s murder in 1963?
It&rsquo;s gone.
Counterfactual history is always a dicey thing&hellip; but perhaps JFK would not have embarked on his successor&rsquo;s ruinously expensive &ldquo;guns and butter&rdquo; program. LBJ&rsquo;s mushrooming welfare-warfare state proved so costly that by 1971, Richard Nixon blew up the Bretton Woods agreement and severed the dollar&rsquo;s final link to gold.
Without any gold backing for the currency, it was easy-peasy for Washington to crank out all the dollars it wanted, send them overseas and get voluminous inexpensive consumer goods in return. Such a deal!
But the result was the hollowing-out of America&rsquo;s industrial capacity and the &ldquo;financialization&rdquo; of the economy.
In the immediate post-WWII years the FIRE sector (finance, insurance, real estate) made up under 10% of the economy. Nowadays it&rsquo;s between 20-25%.
Meanwhile, here&rsquo;s a map that&rsquo;s been making the rounds online in recent weeks. I can&rsquo;t vouch that it&rsquo;s 100% accurate. But look at how health care &mdash; a profoundly extractive industry <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/luigi-mangione-isnt-the-problem">as I chronicled this past spring</a> &mdash; has become the leading employer in over half the states.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3XhtMGvwDFbYSKOxUElc2q/a7c846e8dbf66eae67ee050871449e0f/employer-state.png" alt="employers each state" width="540px" />
The present state of affairs was summed up neatly more than 20 years ago by the union boss Frank Sobotka during Season two of The Wire: &ldquo;We used to make s*** in this country, build s***.
&ldquo;Now we just put our hand in the next guy&rsquo;s pocket.&rdquo;
It can&rsquo;t last forever. It nearly came to an end in 2008 and again in 2020 &mdash; but both times, the powers that be conjured gobs and gobs of additional funny money to keep the scam going a while longer.
Next time, you&rsquo;ll want to own as much tangible wealth, and the companies that produce it, as you can &mdash; gold, silver, copper, uranium and so on.
Real things will matter again as the post-JFK, post-Bretton Woods &ldquo;financialized&rdquo; economy goes through an inevitable reset.
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

map-data-centers

Here’s an interesting variation on Jim Rickards’ “American birthright” them...

America’s Birthright Enters the AI Age

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Trump-Powell Smackdown
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It was just another speech this morning by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Except that these days, there&rsquo;s no such thing for him as &ldquo;just another speech.&rdquo;
He delivered the opening remarks during a conference at Fed headquarters in Washington. The confab has a mouthful of a title: Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference. Grabs you by the shirt collar, right?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The topic is surely important&hellip; but for everyone in the room, it is overshadowed by the question: &ldquo;Is Powell a dead man walking?&rdquo;
As we mention in passing now and then, Donald Trump drops regular hints that he might (or might not) fire Powell before Powell&rsquo;s term is up in May of next year.
Trump is peeved. He wants the Fed to lower short-term interest rates to goose the economy &mdash; which the Fed has been reluctant to do given that the inflation rate is still elevated by pre-2020 standards.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Under the law, a president can fire a Fed chair &ldquo;for cause&rdquo; &mdash; a term that the law leaves rather vague.
Last Friday, Paradigm&rsquo;s Jim Rickards took on the topic for readers of Rickards&rsquo; Strategic Intelligence &mdash; wearing his hat as both our macroeconomics maven and as a Wall Street lawyer who regularly dealt with Fed officials.
&ldquo;In most circumstances,&rdquo; Jim writes, &ldquo;cause would include any crime or even noncriminal activities if they constituted material misrepresentations, violations of internal policies and procedures, ignoring bad acts by others and any breaches of fiduciary duties to the institution. It might also apply to other breaches that might not be crimes such as fudging expense reports, diverting funds for unauthorized uses, etc.&rdquo;
So if the Fed chair is lining his pockets with money from the till, that clearly constitutes &ldquo;cause.&rdquo;
But if the Fed simply isn&rsquo;t lowering interest rates fast enough for the president&rsquo;s liking? That&rsquo;s way more iffy and it&rsquo;s never been tested in court.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Which brings us to the matter of renovations to the Marriner Eccles building, the Fed&rsquo;s headquarters since 1937.
We mentioned this situation at the start of July. The project began in 2021 with a budget of $2.5 billion.
This past spring, the New York Post reported on some of the lavish amenities: &ldquo;The plans include rooftop garden terraces, skylights, ornate water features and a new elevator system that allows board members to be dropped off directly in their VIP dining suite.&rdquo;
Questioned under oath during a Senate hearing last month, Powell said the report was &ldquo;misleading and inaccurate. There&rsquo;s no VIP dining room, there&rsquo;s no new marble. There are no special elevators. There are no new water features, there&rsquo;s no beehives and there&rsquo;s no roof terrace gardens.&rdquo;
But a subsequent Post story asserts that Powell&rsquo;s statements &ldquo;directly contradicted the project&rsquo;s own planning documents, which were signed off on by government pen pushers in 2021 &mdash; and which haven&rsquo;t been revised since.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Are Powell&rsquo;s statements a firing offense? &ldquo;No one knows but, in my view, it might be just enough to support firing Powell,&rdquo; says Jim.
&ldquo;If Trump did that, it&rsquo;s unlikely Powell would litigate the matter. In fact, if Powell saw it coming, he might resign first just to avoid the taint on his record of public service going back to 1990.&rdquo;
But Jim says from the standpoint of sheer politics, Trump would be well advised to leave Powell in place.
&ldquo;If Trump fires Powell now and names a replacement, Trump will own the Fed. If the economy heads south, Trump will get all of the blame. By keeping Powell around, Trump can use him as a pinata and blame him for everything.
&ldquo;That may actually be Trump&rsquo;s plan, in which case one can consider all of the noise and name-calling today as part of an orchestrated plan to hold Powell responsible for bad economic outcomes. For his part, Powell feels some obligation to hang on in order to uphold the &lsquo;independence&rsquo; of the central bank and show it cannot be bullied by the president.
&ldquo;With Powell hanging on and Trump having fun bashing Powell, this circus may continue for some time.&rdquo;
If so, any reaction in the markets to any remark by the president will be short-lived &mdash; background noise amid more important things like consumer demand, corporate earnings and so on.

[Editor&rsquo;s note: Only a short time remains before you can act on Jim Rickards&rsquo; latest presentation &mdash; in which he laid out an &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; trade with the potential to 10x your money.
The most likely profit catalyst is an event scheduled for today &mdash; <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2461503">so you&rsquo;ll want to click here and check out what Jim has to say while there&rsquo;s still time to act</a>.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" /> 10 More Days
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />For whatever it&rsquo;s worth, the president&rsquo;s deadline for &ldquo;reciprocal tariffs&rdquo; is 10 days away &mdash; Friday, Aug. 1.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox Business this morning that it&rsquo;s &ldquo;a pretty hard deadline&hellip; for all countries because what I think will happen is that the tariff level will boomerang back to the reciprocal level from April 2.&rdquo;
As you might recall, the April 2 &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; announcement led to an ugly reaction in both the stock and bond markets. <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-real-reason-for-the-tariff-pause">The bond market freakout</a> resulted in a 90-day tariff pause on April 9, to allow time for country-by-country negotiations. Then once July 9 rolled around, the deadline was postponed to Aug, 1.
(With 10 days remaining, agreements are in place with only the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.)
Meanwhile, Bessent says a separate Aug. 12 deadline to complete trade negotiations with China might be pushed back.
We can&rsquo;t say it often enough. Businesses can adjust to bad news. But they can&rsquo;t handle uncertainty. Will the imported goods they rely on be subject to 10% tariffs or 25% or 50%? Craig Fuller of the logistics firm FreightWaves says companies are starting to buckle under the pressure of not knowing.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7INRKoO2OKJA1BEI4t7DjU/12573947d359b25ec958823186ce757e/CraigTweet.png" alt="craig tweet" width="540px" />
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> All that said, Wall Street is shrugging off the uncertainty &mdash; perhaps on the &ldquo;TACO&rdquo; theory, a saying making the rounds these days about how &ldquo;Trump always chickens out.&rdquo;
The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq have been hovering near all-time highs in recent days. At last check, the S&amp;P is down just barely from yesterday&rsquo;s record close over 6,300. The Nasdaq is down nearly a half percent.
Elsewhere, gold has pushed over $3,400 for the first time in over a month, the bid now $3,424. Silver has powered over $39, another high last seen in 2011.
When it comes to digital nondollar assets, Bitcoin is hanging tough just below $119,000 while Ethereum has pulled back to $3,712.
Crude is down a buck to $66.23, approaching the bottom of its trade range the last two weeks.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Fake It Till You Make It
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Rarely do we do a blatant told-you-so in these virtual pages&hellip; but we&rsquo;re making an exception today.
From the front page of today&rsquo;s Wall Street Journal print edition:
<blockquote>A $500 billion effort unveiled at the White House to supercharge the U.S.&rsquo; artificial-intelligence ambitions has struggled to get off the ground and has sharply scaled back its near-term plans.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Six months after Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son stood shoulder to shoulder with Sam Altman and President Trump to announce the Stargate project, the newly formed company charged with making it happen has yet to complete a single deal for a data center.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Son&rsquo;s SoftBank and Altman&rsquo;s OpenAI, which jointly lead Stargate, have been at odds over crucial terms of the partnership, including where to build the sites, according to people familiar with the matter.</blockquote>
The promise of an &ldquo;immediate&rdquo; $100 billion investment has dwindled to the possibility the companies might have one data center built in Ohio before year-end.
The day after the announcement by Trump etal. in January, your editor ventured that <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/stargate">Stargate was all smoke and mirrors</a>.
Understand, this is part and parcel of how SoftBank&rsquo;s Son operates. Dan Amoss, who&rsquo;s Jim Rickards&rsquo; senior analyst, puts it this way: &ldquo;Promise 10x to 100x of what is economically realistic and then hope that the cost of equity capital remains forever below the risk-free interest rate.&rdquo;
Fake it till you make it, huh?
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Comic Relief
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> There&rsquo;s been so much good Epstein memery going around in recent days. Here&rsquo;s one example I encountered today&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1KkuDgdocM5CXxliwXKGip/0979cb9ad8d1ecf30f122b5fdb7fe20f/LoveofGod.png" alt="for the love of god" width="540px" />
Program note: Barring any unexpected developments in the markets, tomorrow will bring a comprehensive 2025 follow-up to our Nov. 21, 2023 edition titled, <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/from-jfk-to-jeffrey-epstein">&ldquo;From JFK To Jeffrey Epstein.&rdquo;</a>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Sugar vs. HFCS
<blockquote>➢ As it happens: On the heels of its quarterly earnings report today, KO said it would indeed release a new version of Coke in the United States made with cane sugar.</blockquote>
&ldquo;I think you and I read different research regarding HFCS,&rdquo; said one reader. &ldquo;I'm quite sure its use is proven to be much more a factor in the development of diabetes and many other health-related concerns. I stopped reading your article at that point.&rdquo;
We heard from another reader who blames HFCS for his diabetes, and the diabetes experienced by his loved ones: &ldquo;I was drinking two liters a day of pop for years and if I knew corn syrup was gonna do that to me, I would&rsquo;ve stopped because the sugar had never done that to me.&rdquo;
A third took exception to Emily&rsquo;s assertion that there are few differences in the health impacts of sugar versus HFCS. &ldquo;This will reinforce this belief with our fellow readers that HFCS is safe,&rdquo; this individual writes. &ldquo;It reflects very poorly on Paradigm's credibility.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> When I suggested Emily take on the Coke story for Saturday, it wasn&rsquo;t our intention to stir up a hornet&rsquo;s nest on which sweetener is better or worse. 
We just wanted to use the &ldquo;Mexican Coke&rdquo; phenomenon to illustrate the folly of government intervention in the economy via both subsidies for corn and import quotas on sugar.
But as long as folks have their back up&hellip;
&ldquo;There is absolutely no difference between sucrose (Mexican Coke) and high-fructose corn syrup (U.S. Coke),&rdquo; endocrinologist Robert Lustig tells Newsweek.
"They both cause mitochondrial dysfunction and chronic metabolic disease. The only difference is price. High-fructose corn syrup is half the cost, so manufacturers can afford to put more in, and make more profits. Otherwise, they're exactly the same."
Lustig, we&rsquo;ll point out, is not a mainstream figure. He&rsquo;s made plenty of enemies in the medical field during a career treating childhood obesity. His Wikipedia entry has links to conventional scientists sniffing at his description of dietary fructose &mdash; present in both sugar and HFCS &mdash; as a &ldquo;poison.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Sugar and HFCS are factors behind the obesity-and-diabetes epidemic, yes &mdash; but at the root is the government&rsquo;s five-decade demonization of saturated fat.
It started in 1976 with a series of hearings convened by the late Sen. George McGovern (D-South Dakota). The result was the feds&rsquo; publication of the first Dietary Guidelines for Americans in 1980.
From that point on, saturated fat was the enemy. Butter? Cheese? Red meat? Avoid.
Just one problem: The human body needs saturated fat to feel satisfied.
But the Dietary Guidelines quickly became the received wisdom. The makers of processed foods responded by removing the fat. Unfortunately, that rendered the foods as tasty as cardboard. Solution? Substitute sugar for the missing fat.
New problem: Sugar, unlike saturated fat, does not leave the body feeling satisfied; instead, it stimulates a craving for still more sugar.
So by the early 1990s, Americans were downing entire boxes of "SnackWell's" cookies in one sitting and thinking it was all good. Hey, they're low-fat!
When I last took on this topic over a decade ago, it seemed as if the tide was turning with the publication of books like Gary Taubes&rsquo; Good Calories, Bad Calories (2007) and Nina Teicholz&rsquo; The Big Fat Surprise (2014).
But no: The 2025 edition of the Guidelines &mdash; they&rsquo;re updated every five years &mdash; proudly proclaims that &ldquo;Since the first edition of the Dietary Guidelines was published in 1980, each subsequent edition has consistently recommended limiting consumption of saturated fat.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s even though a meta-analysis of hundreds of studies found in 2014 that &mdash; as Teicholz wrote in The Wall Street Journal &mdash; &ldquo;Saturated fat does not cause heart disease.&rdquo;
But the feds&rsquo; jihad against saturated fat is certainly lucrative for the makers of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, no?
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Powell

As we mention in passing now and then, Donald Trump drops regular hints that he might (or might not) fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell… 

Trump’s Favorite Whipping Boy

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Alarm Sounds (but Who&rsquo;s Hearing?)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />If there weren&rsquo;t so much drama constantly surrounding this president, maybe his administration could do a more effective job sounding the alarm about AI and electricity.
Last Thursday, the White House Council of Economic Advisers issued a 23-page white paper. The gist is that unless the capacity of the U.S. power grid grows, the demands placed on the grid by AI will result in spiking electricity prices.
That&rsquo;s not exactly news if you&rsquo;ve been reading these daily dispatches for the last 18 months &mdash; and especially in recent days.
Indeed, our take is more dire: We&rsquo;re at risk of rolling blackouts unless something is done.
Anyway, it&rsquo;s good to see the administration take the issue seriously. It&rsquo;s done so from the start of the Trump 47 administration last winter, when the president <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2460884" target="_blank" rel="noopener">declared a national emergency</a>.
Unfortunately, the white paper&rsquo;s release got buried in the news cycle &mdash; lost in the shuffle of Epstein drama, out-of-nowhere tariff announcements, the swelling in the president&rsquo;s lower legs&hellip;
But it&rsquo;s worth our attention today, if only for a few moments.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Here&rsquo;s one interesting takeaway from the report: "The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that by 2030, U.S. data centers will consume more electricity than production of aluminum, steel, cement, chemicals and all other energy-intensive goods combined.&rdquo;
Another: "The rise in demand for AI and cloud computing capabilities is already driving up electricity use in the United States. After two decades of growth below 1% per year, the demand for electricity grew by 2% in 2024."
Thus, &ldquo;to effectively compete for AI dominance, the United States must focus on rapid growth of low-cost domestic baseload generation.
&ldquo;U.S. growth in electricity generation has averaged close to zero over the last 20 years, while China&rsquo;s generation expanded at annual rates of 5&ndash;10% or more."
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In addition, the report says keeping up with growing demand will take another $1.4 trillion of investment between now and 2030.
Absent that investment&hellip; consumers are looking at ever-spiraling rate increases.
"Using elasticity estimates from economic literature, electricity prices in 2030 could be 9&ndash;58% higher as a result of higher demand for power if lower-cost providers don&rsquo;t come online."
And it&rsquo;s not just a build-out of grid capacity that&rsquo;s necessary; it&rsquo;s also the raw energy to feed the grid.
To meet that need, the report suggests opening up federal lands to more exploration for coal, natural gas and uranium &mdash; a recommendation that dovetails perfectly with the &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; thesis that Paradigm&rsquo;s Jim Rickards has been telling his readers about all year.

[Editor&rsquo;s note: As it happens, Jim is anticipating a new development on this front tomorrow.
It&rsquo;s an event that happens every year like clockwork. Last year, those in the know seized on this development for an especially lucrative trade &mdash; leading to a peak gain of 1,161% in only three months.
This year, with the backdrop of the president&rsquo;s emergency declaration and the release of this white paper, the gains could be even more explosive. If you missed Jim&rsquo;s briefing on this subject, <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2460884" target="_blank" rel="noopener">you owe it to yourself to check it out at this link before tomorrow</a>.]

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />The Genius Act&hellip; and Crypto in Your 401(k)?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The &ldquo;Genius Act&rdquo; is now U.S. law &mdash; and the way we pay for everyday transactions may never be the same.
The House passed the measure Thursday on the heels of Senate approval a month ago &mdash; and the president signed it Friday. The law will set &ldquo;rules of the road&rdquo; for stablecoins &mdash; a form of crypto pegged to the value of a government-issued currency like the U.S. dollar.
Up until now, people have used stablecoins mostly as a place to park their money to easily purchase cryptos that aren&rsquo;t tied to a fiat currency.
But with a regulatory framework coming into place, it&rsquo;s likely that stablecoins will come into use for a much broader variety of transactions.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-end-of-visa-and-mastercard" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As we chronicled at the start of this month</a>, Walmart and Amazon are both exploring whether to issue their own stablecoins.
When The Wall Street Journal broke the news, the impact was instant on the share prices of Visa and Mastercard &mdash; who potentially stand to lose billions in business. That&rsquo;s because stablecoins would have an unbeatable advantage for retailers: They wouldn&rsquo;t have to fork over a 2&ndash;3% &ldquo;interchange fee&rdquo; to the card giants on every transaction.
The Genius Act makes it explicit that players like Walmart and Amazon won&rsquo;t have to obtain a bank charter to issue a stablecoin.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The immediate reaction in the crypto market was mixed &mdash; and still is as a new week begins.
That&rsquo;s because the House passed two other pieces of crypto legislation Thursday &mdash; colleague Chris Campbell summarizes them nicely in <a href="https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/genius-clarity-and-walmartcoin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Thursday&rsquo;s edition of </a><a href="https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/genius-clarity-and-walmartcoin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Altucher Confidential</a> &mdash; but their fate in the Senate is up in the air.
Thus, Bitcoin continues to struggle to surpass its all-time highs; at last check it&rsquo;s a hair below $119,000. Ethereum has responded more enthusiastically, adding to its already-impressive gains this month; at $3,841 it&rsquo;s within reach of its late-2024 highs.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Meanwhile, the president could soon sign an executive order opening up 401(k) plans to crypto.
So says the Financial Times, citing three anonymous sources. Seems the order will cover gold and private equity as well.
Don&rsquo;t expect changes immediately: &ldquo;The executive order would instruct Washington regulatory agencies to investigate the remaining hurdles needed to allow for such alternative investments to be included in professionally managed funds used by 401(k) savers,&rdquo; says the FT.
How readily the managers of 401(k) plans will embrace these options remains to be seen.
In the meantime, those fortunate enough to have access to a &ldquo;self-directed&rdquo; 401(k) can already buy ETFs tied to crypto and precious metals.
Speaking of precious metals&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Gold Takes a Healthy Breather
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Gold is on the upswing as a new week begins &mdash; up $50 and only $3 away from $3,400 again.
&ldquo;Gold has been trading in a narrow range after a very strong run this spring,&rdquo; observes Paradigm&rsquo;s Zach Scheidt &mdash; laying out a new gold options trade last week for readers of The Income Alliance.
&ldquo;Traders call this type of pattern a &lsquo;bull flag&rsquo; because gold essentially ran straight up (like a flag pole) and is now trading sideways (like a pennant flying in the wind).&rdquo;
To illustrate, here&rsquo;s a one-year candlestick chart of the GLD, the biggest gold ETF&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6pBWyvmupCDJobYyfqYCSV/6a0cfcbc7da342f8d5df83b76d9dfa68/zia-07-17-25-gld-graph.png" alt="GLD" />
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s a healthy pattern that shows investors are unwilling to sell and unwind their gold positions,&rdquo; says Zach &mdash; &ldquo;even as gold takes a break from its strong surge earlier in the year.
&ldquo;Meanwhile, many of the same macro factors that drove gold higher in the spring are still in play.
The U.S. dollar is still under pressure, investors are still stuck with above-target inflation and macro risks are still driving a flight to safety.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s only a matter of time until these forces once again start pushing gold prices higher.&rdquo;
➢ Lest we forget: Silver has now notched two weekly closes over $38 &mdash; an event last seen in 2011 &mdash; and it&rsquo;s up another $72 cents as we write to $38.83.
More precious metals goodness in a moment&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As for stocks, both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq are on track to end the day at record highs &mdash; the S&amp;P over 6,300, the Nasdaq over 21,000.
The Dow still has some work to do; at 44,554 it&rsquo;s not even at this month&rsquo;s highs, much less its February record.
Crude is little changed as the new week begins at $67.17.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Mainstream Joins the Party (Gold)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Here&rsquo;s a mainstream headline we didn&rsquo;t expect to see&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2EK6I7zFWDe12q0GSyLNMb/837903d13f592e9a26e130d1286dfaa6/fmf_marketwatch_headline.png" alt="MarketWatch Headline" width="450px" />
Really, it&rsquo;s two stories in one &mdash; both of which we&rsquo;ve been harping on for years. Reporter Myra Saefong at MarketWatch&hellip;
<blockquote>China&rsquo;s central bank has been buying physical gold to add to its reserves for at least the past three years &mdash; and there&rsquo;s growing speculation that the country may be purchasing even more of the metal in secret as part of a strategy to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar.</blockquote>
<blockquote>The ramp-up in gold purchases by the People&rsquo;s Bank of China (PBoC) began back in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, Jan Nieuwenhuijs, gold analyst at Money Metals, told MarketWatch.</blockquote>
<blockquote>The West at the time froze Russia&rsquo;s foreign-exchange reserves &mdash; the U.S. dollar and euro. That was the &ldquo;moment the dollar was weaponized in a way never seen before, which scared foreign central banks and spurred them to buy record amounts of gold,&rdquo; he told MarketWatch.</blockquote>
None of this is news if you regularly open these daily emails. It was no coincidence that annual central bank gold purchases set a record as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine and Washington froze the dollar-based assets of Russia&rsquo;s central bank.
Too, we&rsquo;ve speculated for over a decade that China&rsquo;s gold holdings are much bigger than the People&rsquo;s Bank of China discloses. But the expert cited in Saefong&rsquo;s article has put a number on it.
Officially, China&rsquo;s central bank holds 2,299 metric tons. (For comparison, the United States is the world&rsquo;s biggest holder at 8,133.)
But Jan Nieuwenhuijs &mdash; a renegade observer of the precious metals space who once published under the pseudonym Koos Jansen &mdash; thinks the real total is 5,065 metric tons.
He deduces that number from the &ldquo;unreported purchases&rdquo; of gold by central banks as disclosed each quarter by the World Gold Council.
&ldquo;China [is] importing much more gold than what is sold in the private market through the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and what industry insiders have shared with me over the years,&rdquo; Nieuwenhuijs says.
Again, it&rsquo;s great to see all of this in a mainstream source finally. Then again, Saefong is one of only a handful of mainstream reporters who earn our esteem &mdash; often giving a respectful hearing to non-mainstream voices in the natural resources space (including our own Byron King).
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />April Fools&rsquo; in July
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />We end today kinda-sorta where we began &mdash; with clumsy and/or ridiculous messaging from the White House that gets in the way of meaningful accomplishments.
A week ago today, the Trump administration put out a press release describing some of the changes food companies have made amid its &ldquo;Make America Healthy Again&rdquo; campaign.
One of the changes cited was that In-N-Out &mdash; the wildly popular burger chain out West &mdash; had stopped frying its french fries in seed oils, switching to beef tallow.
Just one problem: It wasn&rsquo;t true.
Worse: The source cited for this information was an April Fools&rsquo; Day tweet from an In-N-Out fan account, not the actual company.
Worser: The account made clear it was a gag in the post immediately below.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5W938KKXyBynLnwMaReVgO/63d0824c2826f808c2b3847feb1dab10/in-n-out_tweet.png" alt="in-n-out fake tweet" width="350px" />
In a statement to the U.K. Independent, In-N-Out Chief Operating Officer Denny Warnick said, &ldquo;We continue to work on an upgrade to our current sunflower oil, however we have not yet made a change.&rdquo;
Called out for its boo-boo, White House flack Kush Desai got all huffy: &ldquo;The media&rsquo;s obsession with covering anything but the facts, like how the Trump administration is working with companies, including In-N-Out, to remove artificial ingredients from our food supply, is exactly why public trust in the press has plummeted to record lows.&rdquo;
Sorry Mr. Desai, just because the media frequently beclowns itself doesn&rsquo;t give you a pass when you do too.
Meanwhile, if you do want your fries made the old-fashioned way with beef tallow, the Steak &lsquo;n Shake chain &mdash; as popular with Midwesterners as In-N-Out is in the West &mdash; has been doing so for several months. Now you know!

shutterstock 1104185120 copy

Team Trump issued a 23-page white paper. The gist? Unless the U.S. power grid grows, the demands placed from AI will result in spiking electricity prices.

A $1.4 Trillion Task

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Most Important Chart You&rsquo;ll See All Year
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;It's faster than the internet, it's faster than the iPhone,&rdquo; says the White House&rsquo;s AI-and-crypto czar David Sacks.
&ldquo;It&rdquo; is the adoption rate of AI. &ldquo;The adoption is faster than any previous technology.&rdquo; And even so, &ldquo;roughly half the public hasn&rsquo;t tried it yet.&rdquo;
Sacks is nobody&rsquo;s fool. A generation ago he was part of the &ldquo;PayPal mafia&rdquo; along with more famous figures like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk.
Now he&rsquo;s in the forefront of addressing a matter so important that shortly after taking office last winter, the president declared a national emergency.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The emergency is the stress that AI is putting on the power grid.
Three years ago in these digital pages, we were already sounding the alarm about the grid&rsquo;s fragility.
The regional grid operator serving the Upper Midwest and Mississippi valley warned that in the event of extra-hot summer weather, it might have to resort to rolling blackouts. On a personal level, your editor took the warning seriously enough to get a generator.
And that was before ChatGPT 3.5 burst on the scene in late 2022.
&ldquo;Running all of these computational resources that modern AI needs requires an awful lot of electricity,&rdquo; says Gregory Allen with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The biggest AI algorithms will require at least one gigawatt of electricity to function. "One gigawatt,&rdquo; Allen tells Fox News, &ldquo;is about one Hoover Dam's worth of electricity.&rdquo;
By early 2024 it was apparent to everyone at Paradigm: The AI adoption curve was so steep that it would inevitably collide with the reality on this chart. We first showed it a year ago. Give it a good look, even if you&rsquo;ve seen it before. We can&rsquo;t show it often enough.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/56YgB8DYcIp9r1qmPho8CX/46598ab8f1a0d7baafba4bbe2f89e111/fmf_71725_chart.png" alt="Something's Gotta Give" />
Notice the steady growth in the power grid&rsquo;s capacity during the latter half of the 20th century. And then see how that capacity has essentially flatlined since 2010. Coal-fired and nuclear power plants were being shuttered faster than solar and wind capacity was coming online to replace them.
Meanwhile, as Emily mentioned in Tuesday&rsquo;s edition, data centers sucked up 4.4% of all electricity consumption in 2023. With AI&rsquo;s stupendous growth, that share is projected to swell to 12% by 2028.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Something&rsquo;s gotta give &mdash; and hopefully it&rsquo;s not the first-world lifestyle to which we&rsquo;ve become accustomed.
In 2023 we chronicled how 15 years of mismanagement have wrecked the grid in South Africa &mdash; leading to rolling blackouts lasting as long as 15 hours a day.
That reality is coming to a country near you without urgent action to expand the grid&rsquo;s capacity.
Which brings us back to the national emergency declared by Donald Trump last winter.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />"The executive orders are now cutting through a lot of the red tape, and effectively we're not required to do things that we were required to in the past," says Joe Dominguez, CEO of Constellation Energy.
Example: Operators like Constellation no longer need to obtain an early site permit when looking to expand an existing nuclear power plant.
"It makes sense if you've never built a nuclear reactor in that place before,&rdquo; Dominguez tells Fox. &ldquo;But in our case, we have existing reactors that have operated in these communities for decades.
"Currently the NRC [Nuclear Regulatory Commission] regulations require us to go through a laborious exercise that costs about $35 million a pop to verify what we already know and that is that nuclear could go there.
&ldquo;As a result of the president's executive orders, that's no longer going to be required."

<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Another big step in the right direction is coming next Tuesday &mdash; five days from now.
Paradigm&rsquo;s Jim Rickards says everything is lining up for &ldquo;an explosive opportunity&rdquo; involving a company that&rsquo;s right in Jim&rsquo;s &ldquo;American Birthright&rdquo; wheelhouse.
&ldquo;Last July,&rdquo; says Jim, &ldquo;this same event sent shares of this company booming &mdash; with one trade eventually showing a peak gain of 1,161% in a span of three months.&rdquo;
Jim says there&rsquo;s every reason to believe <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2460583" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the same setup will take place next Tuesday</a>.
We&rsquo;ve spent a year and half at Paradigm sounding the alarm about AI and electricity. And we&rsquo;ve spent months scoping out the ideal opportunity to trade off this ongoing theme &mdash; and now it&rsquo;s arrived. <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2460583" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Click here to check out Jim&rsquo;s urgent briefing right away</a>.

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />An Overheated Market
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Quite simply, the market is overheated and seems due for a pullback,&rdquo; says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta.
In light of that assessment, Enrique laid out a plan yesterday for readers of The Maverick &mdash; and while we&rsquo;re withholding his recommendation out of respect for his paying subscribers, we can share his outlook for the next 30&ndash;60 days.
He sees three reasons to be cautious&hellip;
&ldquo;First,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;the market recovery out of April's tariff-related sell-off was nothing short of historic. Very few times in history have we witnessed a V-shaped recovery of this magnitude.
&ldquo;Second, sentiment has been extremely positive for an extended period. Everything, other than bonds, has been going up at the same time.
&ldquo;Stocks, precious metals, Bitcoin and even major indexes like the S&amp;P 500 have all been going straight up and setting all-time highs. Market history teaches us that this can't continue forever, at least not without a significant pullback or two.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The third reason is the calendar. &ldquo;We&rsquo;re headed into a period of the year known for seasonal volatility,&rdquo; says Enrique.
&ldquo;August through September is often a bumpy time for the stock market. These months have a long history of being more volatile, with September ranking as the worst-performing month.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s the case going back the last 50 years and even the last 100.
&ldquo;This happens partly because many big investors take vacations in August, leading to fewer trades and bigger price swings. Then in September, trading picks up again as funds rebalance their portfolios and prepare for the year's final quarter.
&ldquo;Add economic updates and surprise news events,&rdquo; Enrique says &mdash; &ldquo;and you get a mix that can shake up the market.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />But not today here in mid-July. The S&amp;P 500 is on track for a record close.
The index is up a half-percent on the day and only six points away from the 6,300 mark. The Nasdaq is likewise in record territory and five points away from 20,900. The Dow is the laggard, beneath both its highs from earlier this month as well as its February record.
The big economic number of the day is retail sales &mdash; up 0.6% in June. That&rsquo;s way more than expected, but not enough to offset May&rsquo;s decline. For once the number is not skewed by auto and gasoline sales: Strip those out and you still get a 0.6% jump.
Bitcoin is hanging tough at $119,354. Crude is up nearly a buck to $67.27
As for the precious metals complex, gold is pulling back a bit to $3,335 but silver has once again crested the $38 level. More about gold next&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Gold: Taking a Needed Breather
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Gold is behaving exactly like an asset that just ran a marathon,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s recovering investment banker Sean Ring.
&ldquo;After climbing over 28% year-to-date and approaching $3,500 in April, the yellow metal has been trading within a tight $3,250&ndash;3,450 range for the past few months.
&ldquo;This is a bullish consolidation, not bearish exhaustion.&rdquo;
There&rsquo;s any number of factors holding gold back right now, says Sean: &ldquo;Although the dollar has declined significantly year-to-date, it has rallied since July 1. Yields remain stubbornly high. And while geopolitical tensions simmer, they haven&rsquo;t boiled over.
&ldquo;The result? Gold rallies on fear and then gives it back when markets calm down.&rdquo;
In today&rsquo;s Rude Awakening, Sean lays out six things that could spark the next rally in gold &mdash; and bring along the rest of the precious metals complex for the ride. <a href="https://rudeawakening.info/posts/patience-is-a-precious-virtue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Worth a look&hellip;</a>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />This much is for certain: &ldquo;The rising price for gold and silver over the past two years is not due to retail coin buyers in America,&rdquo; says Paradigm mining-and-energy authority Byron King.
Byron spent last week in Boca Raton, Florida at the annual Rule Investment Conference &mdash; helmed by resource investing legend Rick Rule. Byron talked with plenty of mining execs, for sure, but he also spent time with several veteran precious metals dealers.
His takeaway? &ldquo;They said that more and more Americans are selling coins and other precious metals just to raise cash and pay bills.
&ldquo;In this sense, metal flows through U.S. dealers offer powerful evidence of growing financial problems across the nation&rsquo;s middle and upper middle classes, even among households that were buying gold and silver just a few years ago.&rdquo;
Said one dealer to Byron: &ldquo;Inflation has robbed perhaps 30% and more of household purchasing power in the past five years. Even people and households that you think would be well-off are struggling. When people sell coins we ask why, and they tell us.&rdquo;
(Which sort of lines up with <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trump-buys-his-first-mining-stock/#3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our item a week ago today</a> about New Yorkers selling their gold jewelry at this time to precious metals dealers in the Diamond District.)
And who&rsquo;s buying? &ldquo;Typically, we buy small lots from sellers who need the cash,&rdquo; explained one dealer to Byron. &ldquo;And then I&rsquo;ll contact a long-time client who might come in and buy 300 or 400 ounces at a time.&rdquo;
&ldquo;In other words,&rdquo; Byron concludes, &ldquo;retail-level gold is moving into the hands of large accumulators.&rdquo;
Gold is moving from the proverbial weak hands to stronger hands. Take heed&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Good Reminder
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In light of the Senate voting for a piddly $9 billion in budget cuts &mdash; in other words, DOGE has been good for a mere 13 cents out of every $100 in federal spending &mdash; here&rsquo;s a timeless reminder&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7DuqLgGXeRpQaFrB6RisR3/ba0aa6a2c7ed727dc124e32817f8cf67/swanson_meme.png" alt="Swanson Meme" width="400px" />
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: AI and Electricity
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Yesterday&rsquo;s edition touching on this week&rsquo;s developments in AI and electricity prompted a couple of reader responses.
One chose to paraphrase President Dwight Eisenhower&rsquo;s &ldquo;Cross of Iron&rdquo; speech from 1953.
&ldquo;With a fixed grid capacity, every AI data center that is built or proposed, every gigawatt they consume, signifies in the final sense a power theft from those citizens who are subjected to rolling blackouts, subsisting without heat or air conditioning in times of extreme weather.
&ldquo;Is AI really as crucial to the average American as keeping their refrigerators running?&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Another reader peers into the future: &ldquo;The big push to upgrade the grid will happen, although it will take years and is a good idea, period.
&ldquo;The bigger push for legacy data centers will be squashed by quantum computing, which runs on 1,000 watts that is not legacy based, and can do the same work in 15 minutes that takes legacy an entire week to do.
&ldquo;Why aren't all the geniuses recognizing that this is a big problem for AI right now?
&ldquo;Legacy-based data centers will lose this battle, and it will happen very quickly. That will turn data centers into vacant warehouses, not to mention the destruction of huge swaths of farming and forested lands. What an atrocity!&rdquo;
Dave: Hmmm&hellip; There&rsquo;s still an awful lot to figure out to make quantum computing feasible for mass data center deployment. Cooling them, isolating them from electromagnetic interference and so on.
Presumably the long-term planners at Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon have taken these factors into consideration and have decided to steam ahead with their aggressive buildout anyway because quantum computing still isn&rsquo;t ready for prime time.
But if you&rsquo;re convinced they&rsquo;re wrong? Might want to consider some long-dated put options on Big Tech!

fmf electric (1)

The Most Important Chart You’ll See All Year

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />AI and Electricity: Mainstream (Still) Clueless
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> OK, <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/power-struggle-in-pa">everything I said Monday</a> about how the mainstream is catching on to the immense demands AI is making on an already-stressed power grid? Never mind.
Yesterday the president ventured to Pittsburgh for an AI-and-energy event. We mentioned it briefly earlier this month.
It was the first big public push by the Trump administration addressing an issue we&rsquo;ve been screaming about for the last 18 months: AI is quickly becoming <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/the-monster-that-ate-the-power-grid-ai">&ldquo;the monster that ate the power grid&rdquo;</a> &mdash; consuming ever-greater quantities of electricity while the capacity of the power grid is constrained.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> To illustrate: A single ChatGPT query uses 10 times the electricity of a Google search &mdash; an amount equal to running an 8-watt LED bulb for about 20 minutes.
ChatGPT now processes over 1 billion queries every 24 hours &mdash; consuming enough juice to power 100,000 typical U.S. homes for that same 24 hours.
Reminder, and we can&rsquo;t say this often enough: The U.S. power grid&rsquo;s capacity now is no greater than it was in 2011.
So yesterday&rsquo;s event was a big deal. And yet, most of the corporate media&rsquo;s coverage was a mush of words that conveyed a lot of nothing. Really, who&rsquo;s going to bother reading an article based on these headlines?
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;Trump Promotes Energy and Tech Investments at a Summit in Pennsylvania&rdquo; (Associated Press)</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;Trump Joins Tech and Energy Executives Amid AI Push&rdquo; (Reuters)</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;Trump Touts Billions in Investments to Create AI Hub in Pennsylvania&rdquo; (Wall Street Journal),</li>
</ul>
The articles were mush as well, never conveying the stakes: If the grid&rsquo;s capacity isn&rsquo;t grown &mdash; and quickly &mdash; we&rsquo;re facing the prospect of rolling blackouts just to keep AI data centers humming 24/7.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> To be fair, some of the blame lies with the White House communications team. 
They were keen to tout a big number &mdash; $90 billion in investments, not all of it geared toward shoring up the power grid.
&ldquo;Data centers, energy infrastructure and workforce training,&rdquo; is how the NewsNation network describes it. And as is often the case with <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/stargate">events like this</a>, some of the projects were previously announced.
Too, Trump, his cabinet members and the other speakers kept the emphasis on &ldquo;winning the AI race with China&rdquo; rather than &ldquo;making sure AI doesn&rsquo;t shut the lights off.&rdquo;
(It also didn&rsquo;t help to convey urgency when the president <a href="https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1945225823130144952">appeared to nod off</a> at one point during the event.)
Don&rsquo;t get us wrong: It&rsquo;s good to see the administration taking the issue seriously. But we can&rsquo;t help wondering if it really has its arms around the scope of the problem. Read on&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Can the Grid Power Zuck&rsquo;s Ambitions?
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The day before Trump&rsquo;s event in Pennsylvania, Bloomberg News published the following&hellip;
<blockquote>Meta Platforms Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said the company is building several massive data centers to power its artificial intelligence efforts with the first one expected to come online next year.</blockquote>
<blockquote>&ldquo;We&rsquo;re calling the first one Prometheus and it&rsquo;s coming online in &rsquo;26&rdquo; Zuckerberg wrote Monday in a post on his social platform Threads, referring to a project in Ohio. &ldquo;We&rsquo;re building multiple more titan clusters as well,&rdquo; he added, a nod to other planned data center complexes.</blockquote>
Zuck seems more invested in giving these projects clever names &mdash; Prometheus and Hyperion &mdash; than in describing where the juice will come from to power them.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> That&rsquo;s because much of the juice to power these projects still isn&rsquo;t lined up.
Hyperion alone is a 5-gigawatt project. Zuckerberg &ldquo;just got one GW of that power from a single nuclear reactor in Illinois,&rdquo; says Mark Nelson of the energy consultancy Radiant Energy Group.
&ldquo;There are 10 more reactors here in Illinois. Trouble is, they power Chicago. You can't relocate either Chicago or the reactors.
&ldquo;Chicago, 100% powered by nuclear most days of the year, doesn't know or care. I have tried to tell the city and I will continue to try. Chicago politicians think they are powered by a solar farm in southern Illinois.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Addressing the discrepancy is doable &mdash; but a steep climb.
&ldquo;The best way this shakes out,&rdquo; Nelson writes on X, &ldquo;is to expand the capacity of the Illinois nuclear plants as fast as possible, first through maximum power uprates of the existing reactors, then by adding more to the plants.
&ldquo;It will take a full team effort between the utility, reactor vendors, the nuclear engineering sector, the city of Chicago and its business community, the state of Illinois and its politicians.
&ldquo;We have to try. Failing to grow our power supply, or trying to block one of America's best shots to lead on AI via reactionary anti-data center energy laws, are both unacceptable.&rdquo;
There&rsquo;s much more to be said about this story in the weeks and months ahead. We&rsquo;ve been on top of it since early 2024 and we&rsquo;re not going to let it go. But for now, we&rsquo;ll move on to other matters&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />The Problem With &ldquo;Loss Aversion&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;As humans, we are biologically programmed to feel the pain of a loss stronger than the pleasure of a gain. Our bodies react as much as eight times more to losing money than to winning.&rdquo;
So says Paradigm trading pro Enrique Abeyta. This &ldquo;eight times&rdquo; figure is something that&rsquo;s stuck with me ever since he joined our team last fall.
It&rsquo;s also stuck in my mind that successful trading means having the discipline to overcome this aversion to losing.
That&rsquo;s a trait Enrique has mastered across more than 30 decades as a financial professional &mdash; including a stint managing over $1 billion for a hedge fund.
His discipline is paying off for his readers. As we mentioned a few days ago, they bagged big gains on the rare-earth miner MP Materials after striking a deal for the Pentagon to take a 15% stake in the company. Yesterday, he said it was time to take the money and run. That&rsquo;s a 139% gain in just over a month.
All told, Enrique has amassed a 77% win rate &mdash; as he explains below in our special 6th Bullet today. There, he shows you two keys to maintaining the discipline that allows him to rack up consistent winners &mdash; anyone who trades stocks needs to heed this guidance. (Scroll down if you don&rsquo;t want to wait.)
The beauty of Enrique&rsquo;s approach is it enables you to tune out the day-to-day noise. Of which there&rsquo;s quite a bit today&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />The Powell Yo-Yo
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Life comes at you fast&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/jNsH3zTdiwOftPsLuDkaG/fe3e8a5d71455c26a4706c9244b4ffc2/BreakingNews1.png" alt="breaking news" width="540px" />
But wait!
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/CxXBnprgO9EcLIrY4K1va/da2595e0f7a0937b5db73408feab6574/BreakingNews2.png" alt="breaking news" width="540px" />
And with that, all manner of asset classes have been yo-yoing today. The S&amp;P 500 took a spill of over 0.8% when the first set of headlines broke, only to recover it all with the second set of headlines.
At last check, the index is up just under a quarter-percent from yesterday&rsquo;s close at 6,244. The other major indexes are also modestly in the green.
Gold also rallied big and then pulled back. But it&rsquo;s still up $28 on the day at $3,350. Alas, silver still has work to do to get back over $38. Bitcoin hovers a little over $119,000.
Crude is little moved after the release of the Energy Department&rsquo;s weekly inventory numbers at $66.51.
<blockquote>➢ Worth noting: Federal prosecutors as well as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have dropped their investigations of Polymarket &mdash; the blockchain-powered prediction market spotlighted <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/how-50-states-are-now-giving-you-access">in yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a>. &ldquo;The investigations were closed amid a broader pullback by the federal government from the Biden administration&rsquo;s crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry,&rdquo; says The New York Times. Of course, the Times gets all judgy about it, calling Polymarket a &ldquo;gambling website.&rdquo;</blockquote>
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Pricey Tickets: Inflation and Location
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> It cost a small fortune to attend Major League Baseball&rsquo;s all-star festivities this week in Atlanta &mdash; and way more than in previous years.
On Sunday, the Axios site reported that the &ldquo;average sold price&rdquo; of a ticket for last night&rsquo;s All-Star Game was $1,183 &mdash; far exceeding the previous record of $754 in 2023.
For Monday night&rsquo;s Home Run Derby, the increase was even more eye-watering &mdash; $1,041 compared with $604 two years ago.
Inflation? Yes, that&rsquo;s still affecting nearly everything even though the inflation rate is down substantially from its peak three years ago.
But location is also a factor: Last night was the first time since 2000 that the All-Star Game was in Atlanta. The last time the game was played anywhere in the Southeast was Miami in 2017.
That previous 2023 record was in Seattle. Curiously, 2024&rsquo;s All-Star Game in Arlington, Texas didn&rsquo;t even crack the top five list of most expensive&hellip; but last year&rsquo;s Home Run Derby did come in at No. 4 on the list at $458.
Thus endeth our excursion into financial trivia today&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

MainstreamMedia

OK, everything we said Monday about how the mainstream is catching on to the immense demands AI is making on an already-stressed power grid? Never mind.

The Mainstream’s Still in the Dark

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Prediction Markets Uncovered
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Last year, a French trader &mdash; using four Polymarket accounts &mdash; staked over $28 million on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
The number stands as a testament to how prediction platforms have evolved. These are not idle diversions but calculated, high-stakes decisions &mdash; with significant capital at risk.
Polymarket, specifically, has emerged as a major digital forum for speculating on real-world events. The platform, in fact, predicted Trump&rsquo;s win over Harris more accurately than mainstream polls, showing a clear lead for Trump long before Election Day.
For instance, in Polymarket&rsquo;s U.S. elections category, here was the breakdown around the time the French trader made his multimillion-dollar wager&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/5TGbG625XSITrnbp3uH9SB/123e05146336cdf6bb02cbcdaf0bd7fb/election.png" alt="election" width="540px" />
Powered by Ethereum&rsquo;s blockchain, Polymarket offers contracts on a range of yes/no outcomes &mdash; from political elections and beyond.
Paradigm&rsquo;s decentralized finance (DeFi) expert James Altucher notes: &ldquo;[This] shadowy corner of the internet is creating millionaires betting on everything from a Ukraine peace treaty to&hellip; the Second Coming of Christ! (Can&rsquo;t make this stuff up.)&nbsp;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The growth of this new market is staggering,&rdquo; James says. &ldquo;Trading volumes have exploded from $73 million in 2023 to over $9 billion in 2024. That&rsquo;s a 123-fold increase in just 12 months.&rdquo;
The appeal is obvious: simplicity, transparency and scale. &ldquo;Think of it as a stock market for real-world events,&rdquo; James explains. &ldquo;Instead of buying shares in Apple, you're buying contracts that pay out if specific things happen.&rdquo;
<ul>
<li>Shares are priced between $0 and $1, reflecting the market&rsquo;s belief in the event&rsquo;s probability. If your prediction is correct, your share pays out $1 after the result is confirmed; if wrong, it&rsquo;s worthless. You can sell shares at any time, and all trades are peer-to-peer.</li>
</ul>
And the real action, says James, isn&rsquo;t necessarily found in the obvious, high-profile bets including &ldquo;Will Trump win the election?&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Traders like the pseudonymous &ldquo;Just Punched&rdquo; have made serious money betting on fringe issues. &ldquo;He systematically bets against unlikely events and has accumulated nearly $2.1 million in profits,&rdquo; James notes.
Egg prices exceeding $5 per carton, the next pope coming from Africa and obscure European elections &mdash; he bets these things won&rsquo;t happen when the market gives them too much credit.
&ldquo;In all of these cases, Just Punched predicted that the events had a less than 1% chance of happening, while the market was pricing them at 5% or 10%,&rdquo; says James. &ldquo;That gap represents pure profit for savvy traders willing to take the other side of these bets.
&ldquo;Of course, there are risks to this strategy&hellip; but they&rsquo;re manageable,&rdquo; he continues. &ldquo;Just Punched has been successful because he&rsquo;s disciplined about position sizing and risk management. No single bet represents more than a small fraction of his total capital.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> James&rsquo; takeaway: Polymarket and its peers have opened a window into a new financial frontier. &ldquo;Anyone can do this,&rdquo; he insists. &ldquo;You don&rsquo;t need a finance degree or millions in starting capital to get in on the action.&rdquo;
With one major caveat: As of July 2025, Americans cannot legally trade on Polymarket; U.S. users are still restricted to view-only access due to ongoing regulatory constraints and former CFTC actions.
<ul>
<li>Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market platform open to Americans in 2025, though legal challenges have been filed</li>
<li>Robinhood and Crypto.com also offer legal prediction markets to U.S. users, though state-specific restrictions may apply.</li>
</ul>
You do need to be early. &ldquo;Smart traders are positioning themselves now, before these markets become saturated with institutional money,&rdquo; James concludes. The prediction market revolution is just beginning.

[If prediction markets aren&rsquo;t your thing&hellip; James Altucher recently revealed his top wealth-building strategy for 2025. Watch his quick video and see how you can get started with under $500. Don&rsquo;t miss your chance to beta-test James&rsquo; new trading service! This opportunity won&rsquo;t wait &mdash; <a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2459764">act now.]</a>

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Inflation Watch
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />June&rsquo;s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows U.S. inflation is picking up: CPI increased 2.7% over the past year &mdash; up from 2.4% in May &mdash; marking the highest annual rate since February. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.3%, the biggest jump in five months, on par with what economists expected.
Recent tariffs on imported goods have begun to push prices higher, especially for products like apparel, home goods and groceries.
<ul>
<li>Food prices climbed 0.3% for the month and 3% over the year, with notable increases on items like eggs and beef</li>
<li>The cost of housing rose 0.2% in June, up 3.8% in the past year</li>
<li>Energy prices, including gasoline, increased sharply by 0.9%, reversing May&rsquo;s decline.</li>
</ul>
Even with volatile food and energy prices excluded, &ldquo;core&rdquo; CPI rose 2.9% from a year ago, slightly below forecast, but still showing persistent underlying inflation.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> How&rsquo;s the market responding to the Fed&rsquo;s favorite measure of inflation? 
Two of three major U.S. stock indexes are floundering today. The Dow (-0.70%) and S&amp;P 500 (-0.10%) are hanging out at 44,145 and 6,260 respectively. But the tech-loving Nasdaq is rebounding &mdash; up 0.60% to 6,260.
In a moment, we'll take a closer look at a Nasdaq stock that's rallying hard today, but here&rsquo;s a hint:
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7LmN6XwV0UvWJHVWmjmXVN/48590cba539236fd84d370a03accd791/bullish.png" alt="bullish tweet" width="540px" />
Turning to commodities, the price of crude&rsquo;s down 1% to $66.28 for a barrel of WTI. Likewise, precious metals are slumping today. Gold&rsquo;s down 0.75% to $3,332.60 per ounce while silver&rsquo;s down almost 2% to $38.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin&rsquo;s pulled back 2% to $117,415. Ethereum? Up almost 2% to $3,055.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Market Miscellany
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />JPMorgan Chase reported better-than-expected results for the second quarter, officially kicking off earnings season. 
While overall revenue was down 10% from last year, strong trading and investment banking results helped the bottom line. The bank earned $4.96 per share on $44.9 billion in revenue; net income was $15 billion.
The bank&rsquo;s return on tangible equity was 21% &mdash; meaning JPM earned $0.21 in profit over the past year for every dollar of shareholders&rsquo; money invested in the business.
CEO Jamie Dimon says the U.S. economy &ldquo;remained resilient,&rdquo; though he warns about risks from trade tensions, high asset prices and global conflicts.
Next, if the number can be believed, China's economy grew 5.2% in the second quarter compared to a year ago, exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. Despite the ongoing trade war, growth was reportedly driven by exports, especially to countries outside the U.S.
Still, concerns persist about China&rsquo;s struggling property sector, and Bloomberg notes that good export numbers are &ldquo;masking deepening pressure caused by weak consumer demand at home.&rdquo; Economists warn growth could slow in the second half of the year.
Finally, it&rsquo;s definitely worth mentioning: Nvidia received U.S. government approval to sell its H20 AI chips to China. These chips had been restricted due to export controls aimed at limiting China&rsquo;s access to advanced U.S. technology.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the news in a blog post and broadcast interview, saying the company can now ship H20 chips legally. The decision is seen as a win for Nvidia and may boost sales in the key Chinese market. Nvidia shares are up over 4% today.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />AI is Hungry. Not for Data
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2030, data centers &mdash; most of them running AI &mdash; will consume more electricity than the entire country of Japan uses annually. 
(In the U.S., data centers could account for up to 12% of all electricity consumption by 2028, up from 4.4% in 2023.)
But it&rsquo;s not just volume. It&rsquo;s volatility. Andreas Schierenbeck, CEO of Hitachi Energy, warns: &ldquo;AI data centers are fundamentally different... because they can surge dramatically.
&ldquo;When you initiate your AI algorithm to process data,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;the power usage peaks within seconds, reaching levels that are 10 times their usual consumption. [No] other industry is allowed as volatile a use of power as the AI sector.&rdquo;
In fact, traditional industries must notify utilities before ramping up operations; this level of volatility, you can imagine, is a nightmare for grid operators.
Here&rsquo;s another nightmare: a transformer shortage &mdash; not only the pole-mounted variety &mdash; but the massive industrial devices that adjust voltage and keep the grid stable.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As AI and data centers ramp up, transformers are in short supply. The sector, valued at $48 billion today, is expected to grow to $67 billion by 2030. 
Demand has skyrocketed beyond anything the industry predicted. To wit, the world&rsquo;s biggest transformer maker, Hitachi Energy, is facing a $43 billion order backlog &mdash; triple what it was three years ago.
Where it once took six&ndash;eight months to get a new transformer, utilities now face two-year waits, and in some cases, up to four years if orders aren&rsquo;t already in the pipeline.
Schierenbeck estimates it could take up to three years for Hitachi to catch up, even as his company invests $6 billion &mdash; and an additional $250 million specifically for transformer production in the U.S., Europe, India and China &mdash; with plans to hire 15,000 more workers by 2027.
&ldquo;Ramping up capacity is an issue,&rdquo; he notes. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s not easy, and it will probably not ramp up fast enough.&rdquo; And when transformers are delayed, entire infrastructure projects can be held up, threatening grid reliability.
As data centers multiply and their power needs spike unpredictably, the grid&rsquo;s vulnerabilities are being laid bare. The transformer bottleneck is a vivid example: Even with billions in investment, supply simply can&rsquo;t keep pace with AI&rsquo;s appetite.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />The Third Battle of Manassas
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Virginia&rsquo;s Manassas battlefield &mdash; the site where over 27,000 Civil War casualties occurred &mdash; is at the center of a conflict between history preservation and the booming AI industry. 
Tech companies plan to build a massive data center complex, covering over 23 million square feet, near these historic grounds, sparking intense debate over environmental, cultural and community impacts.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/6xtlkZklHQrmUl5IXevu1z/9bff72fde30349ca7327d91612687883/Screenshot_2025-07-15_at_11.59.23%C3%A2__AM.png" alt="michael tweet" width="540px" />
This expansion has raised serious concerns among environmentalists and local residents, especially regarding the risk to historic landscapes and the strain on resources.
We&rsquo;ve already established these AI facilities consume enormous amounts of electricity (as well as land and water). Dominion Power, in fact, predicts Virginia&rsquo;s data center energy use will quadruple in the next decade.
Ann Bennett of the Sierra Club warns this is &ldquo;a growing crisis&rdquo; fueled by tax breaks worth over $730 million, with ordinary consumers bearing the brunt of rising energy costs.
And Jim Matte of the Bull Run Legion confirms the deep unease: &ldquo;Nobody wants to look into the forest and see these massive monoliths rising.&rdquo;
While data center companies pledge respect for historic sites by adding trails and informational kiosks &mdash; pfft! &mdash; critics argue these measures can&rsquo;t replace the loss of open views and the sense of connection to the past.
As Virginia grapples with the tension between growth and preservation, the battlefield stands as a powerful reminder of a larger challenge: in an age defined by rapid technological change, how to protect the past while building the future.
That's an excellent question, no?
Have a wonderful day, and we&rsquo;ll catch up with you tomorrow!
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Pope

Paradigm’s decentralized finance (DeFi) expert James Altucher notes: “[This] shadowy corner of the internet is creating millionaires.” 

How 50 States Are (Now) Giving You Access

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />Tight Supplies, Surging Prices
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />We begin the week with a sense of foreboding&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1YAfJfmOXqnyX7U2qluX2t/c5404d51c3c16a0505452784ed9d39da/Will.png" alt="will tweet" width="540px" />
This much we know: Even before his <a href="https://x.com/gc22gc/status/1944147392145895628">&ldquo;Epstein crashout&rdquo;</a> on Saturday, the president was <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/mother-of-all-tariffs">promising</a> he&rsquo;d have &ldquo;a major statement to make on Russia&rdquo; today.
In the meantime, while we await whatever that might be, we turn our attention back to an ongoing theme in these virtual pages for the last 18 months. At long last the mainstream is catching on&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;America's largest power grid is under strain as data centers and AI chatbots consume power faster than new plants can be built,&rdquo; says the Reuters newswire.
Summertime electric bills are set to surge 20% or more in at least part of the area served by PJM.
PJM is the biggest &ldquo;interconnection&rdquo; or regional grid operator in the country &mdash; serving 67 million customers from New Jersey west to Illinois. Here&rsquo;s a map from PJM showing all the power companies that rely on it&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/19CSBehmKX4b9EwhMjvivW/d1ef0f8377fe60951f02da29bdb3cb5c/map.png" alt="map" width="540px" />
More than any other interconnection, PJM is feeling the squeeze from the explosion in use of AI engines like ChatGPT. PJM&rsquo;s service area includes much of Virginia &mdash; including Loudoun County, home to what&rsquo;s now known as &ldquo;Data Center Alley.&rdquo;
Nearly a year ago we told you about PJM&rsquo;s annual power market auction &mdash; an event aimed at averting blackouts by setting a rate at which power suppliers agree to generate the juice on the hottest and coldest days, when the grid is most under stress.
The result of that auction was that as of six weeks ago &mdash; June 1, 2025 &mdash; prices for power plants leaped to $269.92 per megawatt day.
Compared with 2024 levels, that&rsquo;s an 800% increase.
As we said a year ago, an 800% increase in auction rates does not translate to 800% higher electric bills; state regulators impose caps on rate increases. But 20% will definitely take a bite out of many household budgets.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> As you might expect, there&rsquo;s a lot of finger-pointing. 
Back to the Reuters article&hellip;
<blockquote>PJM has made the situation worse by delaying auctions and pausing the application process for new plants, according to more than a dozen power developers, regulators, energy attorneys and other experts interviewed by Reuters.</blockquote>
<blockquote>&ldquo;We need speed from PJM, we need transparency from PJM and we need to keep consumer costs down with PJM,&rdquo; Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro told Reuters in an interview.</blockquote>
For its part, PJM says much of the problem lies outside its control: State regulators shut down power plants fueled by coal and natural gas, the better to fight &ldquo;climate change&rdquo; &mdash; at the very moment that power-hungry data centers have been growing like weeds.
&ldquo;Prices will remain high as long as demand growth is outstripping supply,&rdquo; says PJM spokesman Jeffrey Shields. More from the article&hellip;
<blockquote>PJM has lost more than 5.6 net gigawatts in the last decade as power plants shut faster than new ones enter service, according to a PJM presentation filed with regulators this year. PJM added about 5 gigawatts of power-generating capacity in 2024, fewer than smaller grids in California and Texas.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Meanwhile, data center demand is surging. By 2030, PJM expects 32 gigawatts of increased demand on its system, with all but two of those gigawatts coming from data centers.</blockquote>
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Key point: PJM&rsquo;s next auction is Wednesday. Auction rates could leap again &mdash; worsening the rate spiral for consumers next year.
And the risk of blackouts remains &mdash; a risk that&rsquo;s on the radar of the White House. In May the Trump administration ordered two fossil-fuel power plants in Pennsylvania to remain open past their scheduled retirement date.
We&rsquo;ll follow up as the week progresses. In the meantime, on to other matters&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Tariff Roundup: Russia, Gold
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As the day wears on, it seems the big Russia announcement is a variant on the Senate bill we mentioned <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/mother-of-all-tariffs">in Friday&rsquo;s edition</a>.
The president says if there&rsquo;s no Russia-Ukraine cease-fire in 50 days, he&rsquo;ll apply &ldquo;secondary tariffs&rdquo; of 100% to Russia.
Presumably, that means the 100% tariff would be applied against countries that do business with Russia &mdash; which is a lot of countries.
China, yes &mdash; but as we mentioned on Friday both the European Union and Japan still buy liquefied natural gas from Russia.
For that matter, the United States still buys uranium from Russia &mdash; which once more raises the strange prospect of whether America <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/will-america-tariff-itself">will tariff itself</a>.
Anyway, it seems the takeaway here is that we&rsquo;re looking at 100% tariffs and not the 500% proposed in a bipartisan Senate bill. Last week, the president said he was giving the bill serious consideration.
Will the legislation be rewritten? Congress goes on its summer break in less than two weeks. And 50 days from now is the day after Labor Day.
With that, you know what we know.
By the way, on Saturday the president said the tariffs against the European Union and Mexico &mdash; who together supply a third of U.S. imports &mdash; will be 30%. Presumably that&rsquo;s effective Aug. 1. Then again, stay tuned.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> If you&rsquo;re still accumulating your precious metals stash, you should know there isn&rsquo;t any clarity about tariffs there, either.
When the president made his initial tariff declarations, it seemed gold and silver imports would be exempt.
But according to Josh Phair, CEO of Scottsdale Mint, it&rsquo;s not that simple.
&ldquo;They said that bullion is exempted,&rdquo; Phair tells Kitco News. &ldquo;But if we start looking at a lot of the tariff codes, everyone's going to need to know exactly what is considered bullion, because in our industry we call coins bullion, like from Perth Mint, for example, but that actually is legal tender. It's a monetary bullion product.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s an issue if, for instance, you find the premiums on U.S. Gold Eagles to be too steep and you opt instead for a less-costly government-issued coin like Canadian Maple Leafs, Austrian Philharmonics or South African Krugerrands. They won&rsquo;t be less costly if they&rsquo;re subject to tariffs.
On the wholesale level, &ldquo;What nobody wants is to bring in a $10 million shipment of something and get slapped with $1 million-plus in taxes,&rdquo; says Phair. &ldquo;It feels like the whole world is waiting for clarity.&rdquo;
Trump is &ldquo;changing his view two, three times a day,&rdquo; adds Jeff Christian, managing partner at CPM Group. &ldquo;He's throwing things in, and he is taking things out. So you really can't say definitively what the tariffs will apply to, or if there even will be tariffs.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />New Crypto Highs, Overstretched Stocks
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />As was the case Friday, the big market story is all-time highs in Bitcoin.
The flagship crypto surpassed $120,000 overnight, although it&rsquo;s pulled back ever so slightly this morning. Excitement is building amid hype over what the corporate media are labeling &ldquo;crypto week.&rdquo;
The U.S. House begins debate today on a series of crypto bills. Among them is the GENIUS Act already passed by the Senate &mdash; setting rules of the road for stablecoins.
Conservative estimates have Bitcoin rising to $130,000 from here. Outliers including Paradigm chart hound Greg Guenthner see the distinct possibility of &ldquo;high $200ks&rdquo; before year-end.
But Greg is less sanguine about the stock market at this stage&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;Any way you slice it, this market is stretched,&rdquo; Greg says of U.S. stocks.
&ldquo;The S&amp;P 500 would have to fall nearly 7% just to get back to its 200-day moving average, which is about how extended it was when printing new highs way back in February. That was before the late-month stumble that led up to the Liberation Day shenanigans.
&ldquo;The most recent leg of this melt-up rally has been so damn persistent, you would think we cured every disease and achieved world peace. The rally has been so strong, in fact, that the S&amp;P last recorded a 1% down day on June 12.
&ldquo;The last one before that? May 21. You have to go all the way back to April to find another. That&rsquo;s a whopping 55 trading days with just two significant drops!&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Conditions like these don&rsquo;t last forever. All the same, a crash is not inevitable.
Greg reminds us of something colleague Zach Scheidt said in this space on Friday. &ldquo;Markets correct in two ways: through price and through time.
&ldquo;While it&rsquo;s possible we could see a drop similar to what we experienced back in February, the averages could just as easily run out of steam and chop along for weeks (or longer!) until they catch down to longer-term moving averages.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> For the moment, watching the major U.S. stock averages is like watching paint dry.
None of the major U.S. averages has moved more than a quarter-percent. The S&amp;P 500 is up a mere four points to 6,264 &mdash; about 16 points below Thursday&rsquo;s record close.
Not much movement in precious metals either &mdash; gold at $3,346 and silver still comfortably above $38. Crude is down just over a buck to $67.38.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />Uncle Sam&rsquo;s Surplus (Don&rsquo;t Celebrate)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The federal government recorded a budget surplus for the month of June &mdash; but don&rsquo;t break out the Champagne yet.
On Friday afternoon, the U.S. Treasury issued its monthly statement of income and outflows.
The month of June logged receipts of $526.4 billion, while spending totaled $499.4 billion &mdash; yielding a modest surplus of $27 billion.
Arguably, tariffs made the difference: Tariff revenue totaled $26.6 billion in June. In a typical month last year, tariffs brought in $7.2 billion.
Still, the long-term picture is ugly. From February through June &mdash; the first five full calendar months of the Trump 47 presidency &mdash; Uncle Sam ran a deficit of $667 billion. That&rsquo;s 18% higher than the same period last year.
The problem is that while revenue grew 2%... spending grew 7%.
DOGE might be having an impact on the federal payroll &mdash; down 2.8% since January &mdash; but it&rsquo;s having zero impact on spending. No wonder Elon Musk is so bitter&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Mailbag: Brazil Tariffs, Pentagon&rsquo;s Stock Stake
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> On the subject of the president&rsquo;s proposed 50% tariff on Brazil &mdash; mentioned in <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trump-buys-his-first-mining-stock">Thursday&rsquo;s edition</a> &mdash; a reader writes&hellip;
&ldquo;My neighbor is an engineer at a large company that caters to the potato industry here in east Idaho. Mostly design/build. One piece they install is made of a type of stainless steel made only in Brazil.
&ldquo;It is a huge piece; the packing crate is made of 1" steel in order to withstand the ocean and land trip to Idaho. I'm curious how much it will cost now.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I get that government investment in private companies is a concern &mdash; but at least they got preferred shares yielding a dividend,&rdquo; a reader writes about the Pentagon&rsquo;s 15% stake in MP Materials.
&ldquo;When they bailed out the banks in 2008, they got nothing. When they bailed out the airlines during COVID, they got nothing. Seems an investment with a yield is better than nothing.
&ldquo;And lest we forget Obama's expensive foray into the car business in Biden's Delaware. What did we piss away there? $500 mill?&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;The comments about the Pentagon investing in a private company gave me a flashback to 1994 when I was at HQ Marine Corps,&rdquo; writes our final correspondent.
&ldquo;During this time many defense contractors were merging, and Lockheed had just merged with Martin Marietta. In a time before memes were circulated a hard-copy note was passed around with the headline &lsquo;U.S. Air Force to Merge With Lockheed/Martin.&rsquo; It was all tongue-in-cheek of course showing that military officers do have a sense of humor. A couple of excerpts:
<blockquote>The plans for the new company, to be called Air Lockietta, are somewhat sketchy but sources say that the former contractors will move into military housing at already closed military bases around the country. Air Lockietta believes that forcing their employees into government housing will save the company billions of dollars each year.</blockquote>
&ldquo;And:
<blockquote>The merger has left the other services scrambling to help themselves by looking into mergers of their own. The Navy is interested in a deal with Carnival Cruise Line, but Kathie Lee Gifford has said that she and Richard Simmons opposed a government takeover. The Army is saying it is keeping its options open but that it expects to close a deal with the Marines sometime in the near future. The Marines, upset at not being included in the Navy negotiations with Carnival, say they want to be affiliated with another organization.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Many say that the Air Lockietta merger will take a while to &lsquo;fit&rsquo; the people, though. 'We know how to spend money but we don't know a damn thing about making it,' said an unidentified USAF Lt. Col.</blockquote>
&ldquo;Still enjoy The 5 even with the cynicism.&rdquo;
Dave: Ah yes, pre-internet humor circulated by fax machine.
Still remember the one about the 1990s wars in the Balkans and how there was a desperate need for vowels. (At least <a href="https://www.ling.upenn.edu/~beatrice/humor/clinton-deploys-vowels.html">one version</a> seems to have been taken from The Onion? Back when it was funny, of course&hellip;)
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

PowerStruggle

Power Struggle in PA

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Mother of All Tariffs
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The big tariff headline today is the president slapping a 35% levy on Canada effective Aug. 1. But that&rsquo;s peanuts compared with what&rsquo;s coming as early as Monday.
For whatever reason the mainstream didn&rsquo;t notice&hellip; but on Tuesday of this week, Donald Trump suggested he&rsquo;d throw his support behind a bill in Congress that would impose a 500% tariff on imports from any country that buys Russian energy.
<a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/will-america-tariff-itself#bill">We told you about this bill in early June</a>. Sponsored by the warmongering Senate duo of Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut), the measure has 83 co-sponsors &mdash; way more than a veto-proof majority. Presumably support in the House would be nearly as lopsided.
The president&rsquo;s remarks about this mother of all tariffs came at the same time he committed to sending more weapons to Ukraine &mdash; and said he was &ldquo;disappointed&rdquo; in Russia&rsquo;s Vladimir Putin for continuing to wage war. Evidently Trump thinks this bill might give him negotiating leverage.
&ldquo;I&rsquo;m looking. It&rsquo;s totally at my option. They pass it totally at my option, and to terminate totally at my option. And I&rsquo;m looking at it very strongly.&rdquo;
(If this is so, why do we even bother having a legislative branch anymore? But I digress&hellip;)
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Among the Senate dissidents is Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) &mdash; who warns the bill&rsquo;s passage &ldquo;would cause an economic calamity on a scale never before seen in our country.&rdquo;
It&rsquo;s not just that China buys energy from Russia and thus all American imports from China would be subject to a 500% duty.
As Paul points out, &ldquo;Dozens of countries continue to trade with Russia directly and indirectly including key strategic allies&hellip;&rdquo;
Europe still can&rsquo;t wean itself off Russian energy; imports of Russian liquefied natural gas into the European Union grew 19% between 2023&ndash;2024. All American imports from the EU would be subject to 500% tariffs.
Japan also relies on Russian LNG. All American imports from Japan would be subject to 500% tariffs.
Trump&rsquo;s remarks this week got more attention in India&rsquo;s press than in the United States. &ldquo;India will be hit hard as it has benefited greatly from buying cheaper Russian oil since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out,&rdquo; explains The Economic Times.
As we&rsquo;ve chronicled now and then, India&rsquo;s oil imports from Russia have skyrocketed since 2022. India&rsquo;s been happy to buy the Russian crude that Americans and Europeans have sanctioned.
Before 2022, less than 1% of India&rsquo;s oil imports came from Russia. This summer it&rsquo;s at least 40%. Russia is far and away India&rsquo;s biggest crude supplier.
India is America&rsquo;s No. 7 trading partner &mdash; sending us everything from electrical equipment to pharmaceuticals to textiles. And all of it would be subject to a 500% tariff under this bill.
As Sen. Paul warns, &ldquo;these tariffs would make U.S. trade with most of the world untenable, raise prices for American consumers and risk further weakening the dollar.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> After Trump&rsquo;s remarks Tuesday, he gave a birthday shout-out on Wednesday to the bill&rsquo;s lead sponsor, Sen. Graham&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/2KpGLjTa0AEIZtppRJiagt/8e0f3074eec78fd18c8c9fa7a6314771/TrumpTweet.png" alt="trump tweet" width="540px" />
The following day, yesterday, he said this to Kristen Welker of NBC News: &ldquo;I think I&rsquo;ll have a major statement to make on Russia on Monday.&rdquo; He offered no detail.
That&rsquo;s where it stands with the mother of all tariffs going into this weekend. Check back with us next week&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />BTC ATH
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />The big market story today is Bitcoin &mdash; blasting to all-time highs over $118,000 this morning, now hovering around $117k.
Although as some wags are quick to point out, it&rsquo;s not so much that Bitcoin is strong as it&rsquo;s a vote of no-confidence in the U.S. dollar.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/20QxcqjAEQUYMWs9CWZCFf/6d767a67f270828ab062037ed41187d0/Bitcoin.png" alt="bitcoin" width="540px" />
Same goes for precious metals: Gold is up $34 on the day to $3,356 &mdash; and silver is on track to end the day (and the week) over $38 for the first time since 2011.
&ldquo;Bitcoin has nothing but blue skies above,&rdquo; Greg Guenthner tells his Trading Desk subscribers. &ldquo;I know it sounds crazy, but I think the high $200ks is a decent year-end target.&rdquo; Meanwhile at the Rude Awakening, Sean Ring says it&rsquo;s not too soon to start thinking about silver recovering its $50 record high &mdash; which would &ldquo;almost certainly be the beginning of a new surge, not the end of the bull market.&rdquo;
That&rsquo;s how it goes when the purchasing power of your dollars is being relentlessly trashed.
Even crude is seeing a big bounce today &mdash; up nearly two bucks to $68.53, another high-water mark since the big slide on June 23.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The stock market is slightly in the red as the weekend approaches &mdash; the S&amp;P 500 pulling back from yesterday&rsquo;s record close of 6,280.
The aforementioned Greg Guenthner points out the best performers of late have been the most crazy-speculative names &mdash; like the hydrogen fuel-cell maker Plug Power Inc. &ldquo;If PLUG is on the move, you know you&rsquo;re in a frothy, speculative market.
&ldquo;Unfortunately, it also usually means we&rsquo;re closer to the end of a big run than the beginning of one. This &lsquo;dash for trash&rsquo; is likely the last leg of this thrust before the market will need to cool off and reset. No guarantees, of course. But that&rsquo;s usually how these situations play out.&rdquo;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Don&rsquo;t get the wrong idea: That doesn&rsquo;t necessarily mean a big plunge is around the corner. 
As Paradigm&rsquo;s Zach Scheidt points out this week for readers of Rickards&rsquo; Insider Intel, corrections come in two flavors &mdash; corrections in price and corrections in time.
Corrections in time mean that &ldquo;stocks simply trade sideways for a period of time [as] investors gradually become accustomed to the higher prices and set a new baseline.&rdquo;
We had such an episode of sideways chop late last year and early this &mdash; the S&amp;P 500 oscillating between 5,800 and 6,100 for the better part of four months. It&rsquo;s the old truism about nothing goes up in a straight line&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Here We Go Again
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />This is one of your periodic reminders that global shipping through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal is still balled up.
In early 2024, the Houthi faction that rules most of Yemen started harassing Israel- and U.S.-linked ships transiting the slender Bab-al-Mandeb waterway at the south end of the Red Sea &mdash; an act of solidarity with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
As a result, much of Western shipping that once transited the Suez Canal is taking the long way around Africa &mdash; as it did before the canal was completed in 1869.
Earlier this year after an Israel-Hamas cease-fire fell apart, U.S. forces started a major bombing campaign in Yemen. The Houthis responded to considerable effect. They downed several MQ-9 Reaper drones costing over $30 million each. Meanwhile, evasive maneuvers by U.S. aircraft carriers resulted in two fighter jets sliding off the deck and into the drink.
Then the Trump administration negotiated a separate peace with the Houthis: The Israelis were not a party to it.
Fast-forward to this week and for the first time this year, the Houthis started attacking commercial ships bound for Israeli ports&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1AWB8n8yciRWEzwC4b568E/930f954ca0cc6e0e556b5d2ee25a8663/AIJazeera.png" alt="ai jazeera" width="540px" />
And so the State Department is suggesting that Washington might start bombing the Houthis again &ldquo;to protect freedom of navigation,&rdquo; as spokeswoman Tammy Bruce put it. Israeli officials are egging on the Trump administration, saying it &ldquo;can no longer remain solely an Israeli problem.&rdquo;
As I said when Joe Biden was still president, it would be easy to end all of this with one phone call <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/rising-inflation-bombs-away">like Ronald Reagan made in 1982</a>. But Biden didn&rsquo;t have it in him and neither does Trump&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" /><s>Lemonade</s> Bait Stand Tyranny
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />It wouldn&rsquo;t be summer if we didn&rsquo;t have a 5 Bullets story about lemonade-stand law enforcement.
It&rsquo;s been a staple of ours for years &mdash; youngsters getting their first taste of entrepreneurship, only to be stymied by snitches and busybodies and Karens who notify the zoning board or the health department or whatever. (It even happened to Jerry Seinfeld&rsquo;s son 10 years ago in the Hamptons!)
Now an alert reader has tipped us off to a variation on the theme&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7z5wsPuCTxZon0HrRSHi2M/bfc5d2ebfed6cc26aa6691b4cd856565/AgDay.png" alt="agday" width="540px" />
&ldquo;A teenage boy&rsquo;s fishing bait stand, stocked with worms, sodas and candy, is a threat to government order,&rdquo; says a report by the farm-oriented TV newscast AgDay.
(Love how they can barely conceal their contempt for the bureaucrats!)
&ldquo;Max McKinney&rsquo;s home-built, 6&rsquo;x15&rsquo; shed perched at the end of his farm driveway in Spooner, Wis., has been deemed a zoning violation and shut down by county officials.&rdquo;
McKinney is in an ideal location for such a venture &mdash; a touristy spot in the northwest of the Badger State.
Alas, Washburn County zoning authorities have issued a cease-and-desist order &mdash; complete with a threat of daily fines if he fails to comply.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s hard to believe,&rdquo; says the 15-year-old McKinney &mdash; who hoped to squirrel away the proceeds and put them toward medical school. &ldquo;I&rsquo;m angry and sad at the same time. I thought I was working hard and doing the right thing. Instead, they say I broke their regulations.&rdquo;
The regulations in question govern the presence of a &ldquo;general merchandise store&rdquo; in an area zoned &ldquo;Residential Recreation.&rdquo;
McKinney&rsquo;s grandfather Tom Foss owns the property &mdash; and he&rsquo;s disgusted.. &ldquo;There&rsquo;s no way this type of bureaucratic crackdown on a kid selling bait would have happened when I was a teen in the 1970s,&rdquo; he tells AgDay.
&ldquo;My grandson, Max, is the kind of kid this country needs more of.&rdquo;
Amen. Whatever Max decides to do next, we wish him well&hellip;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" /> Mailbag: Socialism, Bias, Cynicism
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Is it just me, or should all citizens be concerned when the Pentagon starts investing in privately held or publicly traded companies?&rdquo; a reader writes after <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trump-buys-his-first-mining-stock">yesterday&rsquo;s edition</a> spotlighting the news about MP Materials.
&ldquo;This is how China, Russia and Venezuela operate. We've stooped that low? Please, 5 Bullets team, explain to me how this is not far overstepping the bounds of &lsquo;free marketing capitalism&rsquo; and entering us into very disconcerting times.&rdquo;
Dave responds: I share your concern. I raised that concern when I first broached the Trump administration&rsquo;s plans <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trump-wants-to-buy-mining-stocks">in late April</a>. Kinda blurs the line between crony capitalism and fascism, no? (Or is it the strict definition of socialism &mdash; state ownership of the means of production? Strange times these are&hellip;)
But there&rsquo;s literally nothing you can do about it. (Write your congressman? Please.)
As I also wrote at the time, you can&rsquo;t let your politics affect your investing decisions. Like it or not, politicians and bureaucrats make decisions every day that alter the flows of billions of dollars. Successful investing means positioning yourself so you can capture some of those flows, whatever you might think about government&rsquo;s role in the economy&hellip;
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Your analysis always appears biased against what the administration is doing,&rdquo; a reader writes.
That&rsquo;s literally all the email said.
Another reader wrote a few days earlier that with <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/trumps-new-tariff-deadline#2">my take on the Big Beautiful Bill</a>, I was effectively &ldquo;spewing propaganda like CNN and MSDNC!&rdquo;
Perhaps this individual wasn&rsquo;t around last year when people thought I was in the tank for Trump.
Oh, well. It&rsquo;s an occupational hazard. Generally speaking, whoever&rsquo;s in charge, I&rsquo;m agin&rsquo; &lsquo;em.
Although I&rsquo;ve gotten saltier about it since the 2008 and 2012 campaign cycles&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7rCZ5z875X9GV5LramfVV6/2249330b706eaf78e26745acc2202470/AllOver.png" alt="all over" width="540px" />
Which brings us to one more email from a longtimer about <a href="https://paradigmpressroom.com/post/9-11-the-financial-crisis-and-covid">&ldquo;the cynicism issue&rdquo;</a>...
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;I&rsquo;ve read with great interest Dave&rsquo;s self-bio and him addressing his &ldquo;cynical&rdquo; side 😊
&ldquo;I&rsquo;ve always enjoyed Dave&rsquo;s brief glimpses into his personal life. As I read about your background in your career, I conjured up this image of Dave.
&ldquo;Knowing he is an ELP (Emerson, Lake &amp; Palmer) fan, your (his) emoji should be the Tarkus album cover of a tank-like armadillo.
&ldquo;But come on, you REALLY need a fantasy football team. Now, there&rsquo;s where that cynicism would really come in handy! LOL&rdquo;
Dave: Hmmm&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1jHiw7MK9ojlPXc7abvSAo/c3e1d9dc8549f2cd1bfe754d823d2aec/Tarkus.png" alt="tarkus" width="250px" />
Sorry, I&rsquo;m much too casual of a football fan to ever take up fantasy leagues. I&rsquo;d have to immerse myself in stats, highlights, etc. if I wanted to do it right. Go big or go home!
Have a good weekend,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/dave-gonigam.png" alt="Dave Gonigam" width="250px" align="left" />
Dave Gonigam Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

Tariff-cartoon

The big tariff headline today is the president slapping a 35% levy on Canada effective Aug. 1. 

Mother of All Tariffs

trump-phone-hero

Trump Buys His First Mining Stock

<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-1_2x-new.png 2x" alt="1" width="37" />The Clock&rsquo;s Ticking on America&rsquo;s Energy Future
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />In the autumn of 2021, the world watched as entire cities across China fell dark, under the shroud of sudden, government-mandated power rationing. 
China experienced abrupt power outages that brought cities to a standstill &mdash; traffic lights failed, causing gridlock, and elevators were shut down to save electricity. Some residents, desperate for warmth, burned coal or gas indoors, resulting in dangerous incidents of carbon monoxide poisoning.
At the same time, many factories faced intermittent power cuts. Energy-intensive industries, especially textiles, faced strict rationing, forcing managers and customers to adapt to unpredictable shutdowns.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/dOEacUKK4djIR7UfQybhs/6bdd0677be286b4df382b1b9a4bfb9a2/Dan.png" alt="Dan Tweet" width="540px" />
It was a stark reminder that even one of the most advanced economies in the world was not immune to energy shortages. But few Americans imagine such scenes could unfold here.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Fast-forward to 2025, and the U.S. is now staring down its own energy crisis &mdash; one that experts warn could bring unprecedented blackouts and economic disruption.
America&rsquo;s electric grid, once the envy of the world, is now overtaxed and underprepared for the demands of a digital, electrified economy.
The U.S. Department of Energy&rsquo;s (DOE) latest Resource Adequacy Report paints a sobering picture: &ldquo;Modeling shows annual outage hours could increase from single digits today to more than 800 hours per year,&rdquo; the DOE warns. &ldquo;Such a surge would leave millions of households and businesses vulnerable.&rdquo;
What&rsquo;s driving this crisis? The answer is a collision course of factors:
<ul>
<li>Exploding demand: Electricity consumption is soaring, fueled by the rapid growth of data centers, artificial intelligence and electric vehicles and a shift away from fossil fuels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects power demand will hit record highs, with a 38% jump in peak demand by 2030</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Aging infrastructure: Much of America&rsquo;s electrical grid dates back to the 1950s and &rsquo;60s; these aging wires and substations weren&rsquo;t built for today&rsquo;s soaring demand. Breakdowns and maintenance issues are becoming more common, while overloaded transmission lines create bottlenecks across regions. A shortage of skilled workers, many nearing retirement, further slows upgrades and repairs, leaving the system increasingly fragile</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Plant retirements: Older coal, gas and nuclear plants, critical for grid stability, are being retired faster than new, reliable replacements can be built. The DOE estimates 104 gigawatts of baseload generation could be lost by 2030, while 95% of new capacity in progress is renewable, intermittent</li>
</ul>
Meanwhile, shifting government priorities &mdash; supporting fossil fuels versus promoting renewables &mdash; make it difficult for utilities to plan long-term projects with any confidence.
Such uncertainty discourages investment and innovation, slowing the modernization of the grid at a time when rapid upgrades are urgently needed.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The DOE warns that &ldquo;the status quo is unsustainable for the U.S. electric grid.&rdquo; 
The solution isn&rsquo;t as simple as choosing between fossil fuels and renewables. The DOE stresses the need for a &ldquo;balanced transition&rdquo; &mdash; extending the life of existing plants, accelerating infrastructure projects and significantly expanding nuclear energy.
To that last point, recent federal action directs the DOE to facilitate power upgrades at existing reactors, fast-track construction of new nuclear plants and bolster domestic uranium supplies, aiming to quadruple U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050.
But the DOE cautions: &ldquo;If the U.S. doesn&rsquo;t act quickly to balance energy supply and demand, power blackouts could increase 100-fold by 2030.&rdquo;
Conclusion? The clock is ticking. The warning signs &mdash; rolling blackouts abroad (and &ldquo;load shedding&rdquo; domestically), a maxed-out grid and surging demand &mdash; are impossible to ignore.
The consequences of an overtaxed grid go far beyond the inconvenience of flickering lights. Blackouts threaten everything from hospital operations to food supply chains and national security.
Without urgent, coordinated action, the U.S. could soon join the ranks of nations grappling with routine energy shortages. The time to shore up America&rsquo;s grid is now.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-2_2x-new.png 2x" alt="2" width="37" />Copper Tariffs = Self-Sabotage
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> Donald Trump&rsquo;s 50% copper tariff is a gut punch to America&rsquo;s infrastructure ambitions. 
Hiking tariffs on this critical metal, as the president did yesterday, is counterintuitive when the nation is desperate to modernize its aging grid.
The administration claims tariffs will boost domestic production, but the reality is stark: America lacks the smelters, refineries and regulatory speed to ramp up supply overnight.
&nbsp;&ldquo;If you make copper too expensive to import, and it&rsquo;s already too bureaucratic to produce locally, you&rsquo;re setting yourself up for a supply shock,&rdquo; warns Paradigm editor Sean Ring at The Rude Awakening. 
Not to mention the U.S. imports almost half its refined copper because as hedge fund manager Spencer Hakimian tweets: &ldquo;You can tariff copper 10,000% and it still won&rsquo;t change the fact that most of the copper on Earth is in Chile and Peru&hellip; The copper mines in the world are where they are. There&rsquo;s literally nothing you can do about it.&rdquo;
Sean adds, &ldquo;When you tariff the one metal required in every wire, motor, pipe and power line in your society, don&rsquo;t be surprised when costs explode and your economy shorts out.
&ldquo;Nothing says &lsquo;Let&rsquo;s build new infrastructure&rsquo; like tripling the cost of the stuff that wires, powers and plumbs the entire economy.&rdquo;
This isn&rsquo;t just a blow to manufacturing &mdash; literally every industry will feel the pain. Tariffing copper is an act of self-sabotage, risking higher inflation and stalling the very progress America needs.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> The market&rsquo;s verdict was swift: U.S. copper futures surged 13% to record highs yesterday. Today, the price of copper&rsquo;s pulled back about 3.5%.
As for other commodities in the spotlight, WTI crude oil is up 0.35%, trading at $68.60 a barrel. Gold is up 0.15% to $3,322 per ounce, but silver is down about 0.10% to $36.70.
U.S. stocks have ticked higher midday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.15% to 44,300, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 0.25% to 5,240 and the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.60% at 20,540.
Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) is dominating headlines, surging over 2% today to $163.33 per share and pushing its market cap to a record $4 trillion &mdash; making it the most valuable company in history. The AI chip giant&rsquo;s meteoric rise has left other tech titans in the dust, cementing its status as the new heavyweight champ of Wall Street.
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-3_2x-new.png 2x" alt="3" width="37" />Inside the Rick Rule Symposium 2025
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;This week, I&rsquo;m in Boca Raton, Florida, attending Rick Rule&rsquo;s annual investment conference alongside Jim Rickards and Byron King,&rdquo; says Paradigm&rsquo;s editor Adam Sharp at The Daily Reckoning. 
&ldquo;Rick is a legend in the natural resource investing space,&rdquo; Adam continues. &ldquo;This conference is a bit like Mecca for gold, silver and hard asset investors.&rdquo;
Rick kicked things off with a keynote that was &ldquo;one for the record books.&rdquo; He laid out the stark reality: &ldquo;America&rsquo;s financial math isn&rsquo;t adding up.&rdquo;
With Americans holding about $141 trillion in net worth, we&rsquo;re also facing $36.6 trillion in outstanding debt &mdash; 123% of GDP &mdash; and nearly $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities. These are costs like Medicare, Medicaid, federal pensions, Social Security and the like.
&ldquo;These unfunded liabilities are money we have promised, but not paid for. They will come due over the coming years and decades,&rdquo; says Adam.
&ldquo;So we are already almost at a 1:1 ratio in terms of net worth and liabilities. $141 trillion in net worth and $136.6 billion in liabilities. In other words, we can&rsquo;t tax our way out of this one.&rdquo;
Debt is rising by at least $2 trillion a year, and unfunded liabilities are ballooning just as fast. &ldquo;Entitlement spending has grown completely out of control.
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" /> &ldquo;We&rsquo;re approaching the tipping point. And Rick Rule says we&rsquo;re destined to print money and devalue the dollar to make up the difference,&rdquo; Adam notes.
Rick draws parallels to the 1970s, when the dollar&rsquo;s purchasing power fell by around 75% and inflation soared about 15%.
&ldquo;In real terms (after inflation) the S&amp;P 500 index lost money over the decade. The broad stock market offered no shelter,&rdquo; adds Adam.
&ldquo;However, some investors thrived during the &lsquo;70s. They did so by buying gold, silver, miners, oil and other natural resources. This is how Jim Rogers and George Soros made their fortunes.
&ldquo;Rick strongly believes that this is the best path to preserving and even growing wealth during this tumultuous period.
&ldquo;Gold and silver miners. Base metals like iron and copper, too. Oil and gas companies. These are sectors that stand to benefit from sustained inflation,&rdquo; Adam emphasizes. &ldquo;Silver miners, in particular, are cheap. Both Rick and I love &lsquo;poor man&rsquo;s gold,&rsquo; and the companies that produce it.
<a href="https://dailyreckoning.com/is-it-finally-time-to-buy-platinum">&ldquo;Platinum</a> has been on fire over the past few months. Since [May], the price has risen from $982 to $1,386 per ounce. This unique precious metal has often traded at par or even a premium to gold, so it could still have a lot of catching up to do.&rdquo;
The message from Boca Raton is loud and clear: &ldquo;Rick Rule strongly believes that investing in hard assets will be key to thriving over the next decade,&rdquo; says Adam. &ldquo;So do we.&rdquo;
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-4_2x-new.png 2x" alt="4" width="37" />For the Record
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />&ldquo;Got gold?&rdquo; asks editor Sean Ring at our internal Slack channel, captioning this tweet&hellip;
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/10c63KvYBzcF8AlDV31Mpd/c7f5e2545e4ded7302759efaaa2eee68/E.J.png" alt="EJ Tweet" width="540px" />
This chart tracks the total U.S. public debt since the start of the Biden administration in January 2021. The periods where the line flattens out represent times when the debt ceiling was in effect, preventing the government from borrowing more money.
Each time the debt ceiling is suspended or raised, the line jumps upward as the Treasury catches up on borrowing. Most recently, with the debt ceiling no longer in force, there&rsquo;s a sudden $366 billion spike in the national debt. How quickly government borrowing rises once those limits are lifted!
<img src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5-new.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/bullet-5_2x-new.png 2x" alt="5" width="37" />Brie Prepared: More Than Meets the Eye
<img class="infinity-bullet" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left.png" srcset="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/fmf-assets/Paradigm_Logomark_left_2x.png 2x" align="left" />Fancy a slice of French countryside for the price of a croissant? The village of Ambert, famous for its fourme d'Ambert cheese, is offering two homes for just one euro each. But before you start packing your beret and dreaming of baguettes, there&rsquo;s a twist.
These aren&rsquo;t move-in ready chateaux; think more DIY adventure than turnkey retreat. The catch? Buyers must commit to renovating these crumbling beauties within a year &mdash; no letting your fixer-upper gather more dust &mdash; and then living in the residence full-time for three years minimum.

<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3NdsavdPw8pD8rb5siUvU8/c8121fe09466b7b1266e1023b6c41b3b/France.png" alt="France" width="540px" />

Courtesy: Daniel C., Tripadvisor Ambert, France
Why the bargain? The small village in southeast France, with about 6,500 residents, has launched this initiative as part of a five-year plan to reverse population decline and inject new life into its sleepy streets.
(With property vacancy rates in some parts of Ambert reaching up to 60%, local authorities should probably put more than just two homes on the market!)
It&rsquo;s a clever strategy: lure dreamers &mdash; especially young dreamers &mdash; with a price tag that&rsquo;s practically pocket change, then challenge them to roll up their sleeves and get to work. The local council hopes this will attract a new wave of residents, ideally those with a fondness for rustic charm and a knack for plastering walls (a dying art, I&rsquo;m told).
So if your Pinterest board is overflowing with &ldquo;cottage core&rdquo; inspiration and you don&rsquo;t mind a few cobwebs, Ambert might be your next great adventure.
Just remember, in Europe, even a one-euro house comes with its own archaic blueprint of <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-14421909/Reality-buying-1-home-Italy-Netflix-rom-com-La-Dolce-Villa-paints-glossy-picture-pitfalls-buyers-face-include-asbestos-eye-watering-bureaucracy-earthquake-fears.html">bureaucracy.</a>
Enjoy your day! We&rsquo;ll catch up with you tomorrow&hellip;
Best regards,
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://media.paradigmpressgroup.com/signatures/emily-clancy.png" alt="Emily Clancy" width="250px" align="left" />
Emily Clancy Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets

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