Go Ask Germany

A Deindustrialized Germany

Every generation gets its wake-up call. Ours is playing out right now in the Strait of Hormuz.

Twenty million barrels of oil transit that narrow corridor every single day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. About one-fifth of all petroleum consumed on Earth. Worth about $500 billion annually. When that passage closes — as Iran has now threatened — the world doesn't simply reroute.

The Middle East has always been a theater of energy power dressed up in the trappings of ideology. The 1973 oil embargo. The Iran-Iraq Tanker War, which damaged or destroyed over 500 vessels in the 1980s. Desert Storm. Iraq 2003. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping in 2023.

Every chapter, the same story: Whoever controls energy — and its routes — controls the world.

Here’s the lesson we still haven’t learned, even the hard way: Industrial economies that outsource control of their critical inputs to geopolitical rivals eventually pay a catastrophic price.

Germany is a prime example.

We’ve covered Germany’s energy catastrophe in these pages before — when a strategic explosion severed the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022 and when Germans were told to put on a sweater (or two) while households and factories went cold. We said then the situation was going to get uglier.

Germany — once the engine of the eurozone — has now endured two consecutive years of economic contraction. The Handelsblatt Research Institute calls it the “greatest crisis in postwar history.”

Since 2019, 245,000 manufacturing jobs have already disappeared, according to a 2025 EY study. Car output has dropped from roughly 5.1 million vehicles annually in 2017 to around 4 million today.

BASF, the world’s largest chemical company, is shifting operations abroad, explicitly citing energy costs. And Siemens told German parliament: “There is nothing that would speak in favour of investing in Germany.”

In 2024, Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) projected Germany would rank 39th out of 41 advanced economies in growth. By early 2025, the IMF had cut Germany’s growth forecast, ranking it among the worst-performing industrialized nations. The ifo Institute warns of one million jobs lost by 2030.

How does a modern industrial superpower hollow itself out? In three moves.

First, disconnect your nuclear plants in a post-Fukushima freakout.

Next, bet on wind and solar in one of Europe’s cloudiest, coldest, most energy-hungry climates.

Then build your entire manufacturing model on cheap natural gas piped from Russia… which incites the wrath of your NATO frenemies. (Intentionally vague.)

Germany all but handed Joe Biden the kill switch. When he flipped it — and the Nord Stream pipelines exploded — there was no backup plan. The engine of Europe seized.

Now here is where the story stops being about Germany and starts being about the U.S…

Same Trap, Different Resources

The same trap — outsourcing control of a critical industrial input to a geopolitical rival — is aimed directly at the American economy. The resource is different. The dependency is identical.

The U.S. is 100% import-reliant for 12 minerals the USGS deems critical. China dominates production or processing for 29 of those.

The IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 found that for 19 out of 20 important strategic minerals, China is the leading refiner, averaging 70% market share. It processes around 80% of the world’s lithium.

It controls more than 90% of the downstream rare earth value chain, including the permanent magnets found inside every EV motor, cellphone and missile guidance system.

Since December 2024, Beijing has been methodically restricting exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten and seven heavy rare earth elements to the U.S. — and the controls keep expanding.

The Pentagon is moving — becoming the largest shareholder of MP Materials, committing to a $1 billion strategic stockpile — but these are early moves in a very long game.

Germany built its economy on Russian natural gas. When the supply was decimated, a trillion-dollar industrial base began to dissolve. In the same way, the critical minerals that power American industrialization are now concentrated in Chinese hands.

Energy dependence shocked Germany. Mineral dependence could shock the U.S. — and the world.

Germany put on a sweater and hoped for the best. We know how that’s going.

[Note: When the Trump administration invoked Section 232 for critical minerals, it didn’t just signal a shift in national-security policy.

It also may have set the stage for a major move inside the global mining industry.

According to our colleague James Altucher, one of the world’s largest mining companies — Glencore — could announce a massive company buyout as soon as Saturday, March 7.

If that happens, it could reshape the supply chain for one critical resource.

James believes investors may still have a brief window to position themselves.

He notes in past mining buyouts, certain stocks delivered potential peak gains as high as 2,350%… 5,130%… even 7,100% in just six days.

There’s no guarantee anything like that happens again.

But James believes this developing situation could represent a rare opportunity in the resource sector — one that may disappear quickly if and when the deal he’s expecting is announced.

You can access his full research right here.]

Boots on the Ground at PDAC 2026

Two Paradigm Press editors — veteran geologists Byron King and Matt Badiali — are on the ground this week at the world’s largest mining gathering.

The annual convention hosted by the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) draws tens of thousands of investors, miners and geologists to Toronto each year. This year, the message from the floor is unmistakable: Capital is rushing back into the resource sector.

Byron describes the mood: “Metals, minerals, mines and me, plus about 35,000 of my nearest friends,” he writes from Toronto. “It’s crowded… and there’s much to report.”

One of his first encounters set the tone. Upon entering the exhibit hall, Byron ran into legendary resource investor Rick Rule.

Day One: Byron King (left) with Rick Rule (right)
Courtesy: BWK

“There’s a heck of a lot of money here, competing with me to write checks,” Mr. Rule tells Byron.

That observation matches what Byron’s hearing from sources across the event. “Every day, we take in cash out of Asia,” says a senior investment banker, citing Singapore, Korea and Japan, alongside funds from Australia and the Gulf states.

American money is likewise shifting toward the sector. “Much of it comes from tech, AI, crypto and the rest of the big markets,” the banker explained. “It’s sector rotation.”

For Byron, the contrast with earlier PDAC conferences is striking. For much of the 2010s, the sector struggled with weak metal prices and scarce capital. “This year, though? The money dam has burst.”

“I recall writing, back in 2024, that ‘gold leads the way,’” Byron adds. “And the numbers speak for themselves: Gold moved from the $2,000 range in early 2024 to the current price over $5,000.

“And it’s not just gold. We’ve seen big price increases for other metals used in industry.

“Producing companies have seen significant increases in revenues and internal cash flows,” he says. “At the end of the day, much of that cash flow lands on the bottom line to become earnings. And stock markets like to see earnings.”

Matt Badiali arrived Sunday afternoon and quickly began meeting with companies exhibiting at the conference.

One stop stood out: a visit with CEO Rob Carpenter of Prospector Metals, whose team brought a core sample from a new discovery to PDAC’s “Core Shack.”

Prospector CEO Dr. Rob Carpenter discusses the ML Project core
Courtesy: Matt Badiali

The core came from drill hole ML25-031 at the company’s ML Project in Yukon Territory of northern Canada— and the results were impressive.

About 62 meters underground, the drill hit a 44-meter-thick zone of rock rich in metals — averaging 13.8 grams of gold per ton, along with 1.9% copper and 38.1 grams of silver.

Matt examined the rock himself. “I held a piece,” he says. “It was really, stupidly heavy.”

What makes the discovery even more intriguing: “As you go deeper, you get visible gold in the core,” Matt explains. “That’s unusual and really exciting.

“The idea is that metal-rich fluid came from deep in the earth,” Matt says. “It moved up the cracks and found rock that it could infiltrate.”

The drilling program is still early, but the geology suggests the discovery could grow significantly. “I can’t wait to see the results,” Matt says.

The takeaway from Toronto: From Byron’s conversations about the flood of new capital to Matt’s firsthand look at fresh discoveries, the message from PDAC 2026 is clear.

After years of underinvestment, the mining sector is drawing serious money and attention again — and the next wave of discoveries may already be emerging.

Pawn Shops and Silver

Rick Harrison has spent his career lowballing people over grandpa’s coin collection, but lately the Pawn Stars boss is the one who can’t get enough. Silver vanishes from his Las Vegas Gold & Silver Pawn Shop practically the moment it arrives.

“Silver bullion, especially, we cannot keep in the showcase. Literally, if I buy some across the counter, or I get a shipment in, I got salespeople arguing who gets it, because all they have to do is pick up the phone to sell it.”

For the past five years, there’s been a global 200-million-ounce-per-year deficit. Silver happens to be the best conductor of electricity on the planet — possibly the universe — and data centers, electric cars and solar panels are all ravenously consuming it.

The kicker: There are almost no dedicated silver mines. Most silver comes as a byproduct of gold and copper mining — a reluctant hitchhiker, not the main event.

Harrison — apparently an Adam Smith devotee? — believes the market will self-correct eventually.

“Economic Darwinism will happen,” he says, “and with the price of silver way up, there will be more dedicated silver mines... The unseen hand will do what it has to do.”

“I Was Wrong… I Love It!”

“I never thought I’d use it, but I was wrong!” emphasizes a reader about her own ChatGPT usage.

“We use ChatGPT in our yacht sales dealership for marketing purposes, to create listings for YachtWorld, our MLS system.

“I can feed an image into ChatGPT, and with a little human instruction (very important), it will give me a detailed description about the picture/space.

“I can also give it my text and ask to enhance it, making it more technical or softer. It will reorder my document if I ask it to, creating an entire YachtWorld listing and a Word or PDF document.

“It’s amazing, but it does need direction from someone who has knowledge — a human — or it will get confused from one brand to the next or when it comes to specific trade terms.

“I learned how to use it from my daughter, who is an interior designer. She uses it very effectively in her business on a daily basis… I love it!”

“I use ChatGPT as a professional support tool for research, document drafting, organization and strategic analysis,” writes another contributor.

“Specifically, I rely on it to help draft and refine correspondence, summarize complex materials, analyze financial and investment topics, assist with legal document preparation and provide structured guidance on business and personal projects.

“It serves as an efficiency tool that helps me organize information, evaluate options and improve clarity in written communication.

“ChatGPT does not replace professional legal, financial or medical advisers, but it is a valuable resource for research support, idea development and drafting assistance.”

Thanks to our correspondents for their AI insights… If you haven’t done so already, maybe you’ll give it a whirl.

Bye for now, reader!

P.S. Investors seem to be shrugging off drama in the Middle East. Call it a risk-on day.

The three major U.S. indexes are paring recent losses. At the time of writing, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is up 1.60% to 22,880. In second place, the S&P 500 is up almost 1% to 6,880. In last position, the Big Board’s up 0.60% to 48,790.

Taking a look at the commodities complex, crude’s up 0.30% to $74.75 for a barrel of WTI. “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration will provide support to oil tankers transiting the Persian Gulf and announce more measures in the coming days,” according to CNBC.

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) “will provide the insurance for both the crude carriers and the cargo ships operating in around the Gulf,” says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

What could go wrong?

As for precious metals, gold’s up 0.35% to $5,141.30; silver, on the other hand, is down 0.20% to $83.30.

In sympathy with stocks, digital assets are in the green. Bitcoin’s up 8% to $73,860 while Ethereum’s up over 10% to $2,180.