Summer 2025: Maxed Out?
Summer 2025: Maxed Out?
If you want to know what keeps America’s energy planners up at night, just look at the numbers…
This summer, PJM — the nation’s largest power grid operator — expects demand to hit 154,000 megawatts (MW), enough to power over 120 million homes.
But in a worst-case heatwave? Demand could spike past 166,000 MW, threatening to outstrip reserves for the first time ever.
It’s a scenario that would force PJM to call on emergency “demand response” programs, paying big customers to shut off the lights and keep the grid from buckling.
This isn’t just a blip. It’s the start of America’s electricity squeeze — a reckoning with decades of flat demand, suddenly upended by the digital revolution.
For years, electricity demand in the U.S. barely budged, in fact, growing less than 1% a year between 2001–2023. To wit, a chart we’ve referred to from time to time…
And while policymakers focused on electric vehicles and the “green economy,” it turns out the real disruptor is artificial intelligence.
Data centers — those warehouse-sized “brains” of the internet, AI, crypto and more — already eat up 4.4% of America’s electricity. By 2028, that could soar to nearly 12%.
Meanwhile, S&P Global predicts U.S. electricity use will jump about 25% by 2030, a pace not seen in decades.
And the surge isn’t spread evenly. It’s concentrated in “Data Center Alley” in Virginia, plus Texas, Ohio, Georgia and a handful of other states.
Utilities are scrambling. Entergy, for instance, is building 2,200 MW of new gas-fired capacity just to keep up with Meta’s Louisiana data center. And pipeline operators report requests to connect 70 new data centers in 12 states.
Solar and wind? Growing fast, but they’re not a silver bullet. PJM is urging owners of “inverter-based resources” to meet tougher standards to ensure reliability.
- California’s experience is a cautionary tale: Aggressive renewable mandates have driven up prices — residential rates now average 32 cents per kilowatt-hour, twice the national average.
For now, PJM, which manages the grid for 65 million people from Illinois to New Jersey, claims to have enough power generation for a typical summer.
With hotter-than-normal weather predicted and record demand possible this summer, the margin for error is slim. If reserves run short, PJM will tap its 7,900 MW of contracted demand response, paying factories, warehouses and even some neighborhoods to cut usage in a pinch.
Behind the scenes, PJM is hustling to adapt:
- Faster grid connections: By automating processes and adding staff, PJM has cut the backlog of new power projects by 60%. A new partnership with Google will use AI tools to further accelerate grid interconnections
- Reliability boost: PJM’s one-time Reliability Resource Initiative will bring 9,300 MW of ready-to-build projects online by 2030 to fill capacity gaps
- Smarter demand response: New federal rules let customers reduce electricity use year-round, not just during summer peaks, making it easier for PJM to balance supply and demand.
But the grid’s balancing act is getting harder: Old coal and nuclear plants are retiring faster than new resources can replace them.
“This outlook at a record peak heat scenario reflects our years-long and mounting concerns as we plan for enough resources to maintain grid reliability,” says Aftab Khan, PJM’s head of operations.
Nuclear Comeback
Here’s where things get interesting: Americans’ attitudes toward nuclear energy are shifting.
According to Gallup, 61% now favor nuclear power — the highest since 2010, and up 16 points since 2016.
Most notably, support has surged among Republicans (now 74%) and independents (64%), while Democrats’ support has held steady at 46%, according to Gallup.
Why the change? Partly, it’s the sheer scale of the electricity squeeze. Natural gas is still king, providing 43% of U.S. electricity and fueling most new data center projects. But nuclear is suddenly back in the conversation, thanks to its reliability and zero-carbon credentials.
Even President Trump, who campaigned on an “all of the above” energy strategy, now touts smaller, modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) as “cheaper, more scalable alternatives” to the mega-projects of the past.
The Department of Energy is putting real money behind the idea, issuing $900 million in funding to accelerate the rollout of next-generation SMRs. There are now 42 SMR companies vying for a slice of the market, though none has broken ground yet.
America’s electricity squeeze is real, and the digital economy is pushing the grid to its limits. With demand soaring and old plants retiring, the grid faces unprecedented challenges. Reliable natural gas will fill the gap for now, but nuclear is poised for a comeback.
Road Trip!
“I’m headed to Consensus 2025 — aka the Davos of crypto,” says Paradigm’s crypto expert and intrepid road-tripper, Chris Campbell, who first recounts a timeline of past conferences.
“The first event” — in 2015 —” was held in NYC, drawing a modest crowd of developers, VCs and early Ethereum enthusiasts,” Chris notes. “It was so early Bitcoiners and Ethereum bulls still (kind of) got along.
“In 2017, the bull run sent crypto to the moon. Two thousand people showed up. Bitcoin hit $20k.
“In 2018, over 8,000 people packed the Hilton Midtown. Lambos were parked outside. Celebrities made an appearance. ICO bros flooded the lobby.
“2019? Doldrums. The bear market set in, the regulators were circling. Consensus talks pivoted from hopium to infrastructure and real use cases.
“Miami 2021, [Bitcoin] bros were throwing parties that felt more like a rap music video than a financial awakening.
“Austin 2022, [everyone] was glancing around nervously.
“And [in] 2023… booths were empty, the atmosphere was apocalyptic and the spirit of Gary Gensler haunted the venue.
“Now, this year’s Consensus feels different. Toronto 2025 feels… sober,” Chris emphasizes.
“Let’s start with the obvious: Eric Trump is speaking. His new mining company ‘American Bitcoin’ is reportedly going public.
“Then there’s Bo Hines,” Chris adds. “He’s heading the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets — and he’s laying out the White House's official strategy for crypto legislation. (Something tells me the words ‘stablecoins’ and ‘tokenized Treasuries’ will be uttered. A lot.)
“Adrienne Harris, superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), will address regulatory frameworks in America’s strictest state.
“And the wild cards, like Dave Portnoy, who will talk about… Honestly, I have no idea.
“Three things I’ll be tracking like a hawk…
- Stablecoins and Real-World Assets (RWAs) — Everyone from Larry Fink to your Uber driver is talking about tokenization
- DePIN — Decentralized physical infrastructure is having a moment. Someone is going to figure out how to turn crypto into actual roads and wires. That’s when the real fight begins
- AI x Blockchain — Half the speakers will say this is the dumbest combo since orange juice and toothpaste. The other half are quietly funding it. I’ll let you know who’s right.
“One thing I do know,” Chris concludes. “This year is different. It’s not just another conference. It’s a show of hands.
“Is crypto still a punchline? Or is it finally growing up?
“I’m voting on the latter,” he confirms. “But I’m here to find out for sure.”
We look forward to sharing more insights from Chris Campbell in the days ahead, and if you’re attending Consensus 2025, Chris invites you to say hello.
Consulting our screen today, the crypto market is in the red: Bitcoin’s down over 1% to $103,500; at the same time, Ethereum is down almost 4% to $2,595.
Stocks, conversely, are hanging out in green territory. The tech-heavy Nasdaq’s gained the most — up 0.60% to 19,130. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Dow are up 0.20% and 0.05% respectively.
Crude is getting whacked today; a barrel of WTI is down 1.10%, priced just under $63. As for precious metals, gold is down 1.80% to $3,188.50 per ounce, and silver is down 2% to $32.45.
The yield on a 10-year T-note is up to 4.52% this morning — still ticking up, and reminiscent of April’s bond market freakout we mentioned in yesterday’s 5 Bullets.
Trump Courts Syria’s Ex-Jihadist
President Trump announced the lifting of long-standing U.S. sanctions on Syria, marking a dramatic reversal in American policy and igniting controversy.
The move comes as Trump embarks on a Gulf tour dominated by massive business deals, including a $600 billion Saudi investment pledge and $142 billion in arms sales.
But central to the Syrian controversy is Trump’s meeting today in Riyadh with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the country’s “interim president,” who until recently led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a group with direct al-Qaida ties and a record of attacks on U.S. troops. Sharaa’s rise to power followed the ouster of Bashar al-Assad; his appointment has not erased concerns over his militant past.
The optics are troubling: Trump is the first U.S. president to meet with a leader so closely associated with terrorism. Notably, Sharaa has yet to commit to basic U.S. demands, such as expelling foreign fighters or signing the Abraham Accords of 2020 — which would open diplomatic relations with Israel.
Instead, Sharaa has dangled lucrative incentives, including offers for U.S. companies to invest in Syria’s oil-and-gas sector and even a proposal for a Trump Tower in Damascus.
These overtures would directly benefit the Trump Organization, which is reportedly pursuing new branded projects in Qatar, Dubai and Abu Dhabi as part of broader Gulf business expansion.
Like we said: Bad optics.
On the other hand, credit where credit is due: This time, the endorsement comes from Arnaud Bertrand, an internet entrepreneur and forthright critic of Trump, whom we have occasionally cited.
“All in all,” Bertrand says via X, “whilst Trump can be criticized for many things — and I do so myself all the time — his recognition with this speech that different civilizational models can coexist without one imposing itself on others is actually a profound and immensely necessary step toward genuine peace — regardless of who articulates it.”
Elon, Yo Mama Is So…
Silicon Valley’s crosswalks got punked last weekend. Hacked pedestrian signals in Palo Alto, Menlo Park and Redwood City swapped their usual “walk” and “wait” instructions for uncanny AI-generated banter from faux Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.
For instance, pedestrians were greeted by a supposed message from Musk, including…
- “Will you be my friend? I’ll give you a Cybertruck”
- “You know, they say money can’t buy happiness and... I guess that’s true. God knows I’ve tried.”
Meanwhile, a Zuckerberg soundalike introduced himself as “The Zuck,” before musing about “insert[ing] AI into every facet of your conscious experience.”
Burn?
The prank, which played out at about a dozen crossings — including some near Meta’s sprawling campus — quickly went viral on social media, with locals alternating between laughter and confusion. “It’s quite an impressive form of protest art,” one Redwood City resident told reporters.
“City staff have disabled the audible feature until further repairs can be made,” says Meghan Horrigan-Taylor, a Palo Alto spokeswoman.
So far, the identity of the prankster remains a mystery…
But leave it to some Silicon Valley nerd to hack pedestrian crossings with billionaire impressions instead of just lobbing a few classic “Yo Mama” jokes at Elon and Zuck.
Take care, reader! We’ll be back at it tomorrow…
Best regards,
Emily Clancy
Associate editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets
