Trump Seeking Escorts

Trump Seeking Escorts

Mere hours after we mused in this space on Friday about a U.S. attack on Iran’s Kharg Island, the airstrikes were underway.

True to form, it happened on a Friday night — so that any knee-jerk reactions wouldn’t show up in the markets until futures trading opened for a new week on Sunday night. (This has been a strategy employed regularly by both the Biden and Trump 47 administrations.)

As it turns out, there was no operation using ground forces to seize Kharg — site of an oil terminal that processes 90% of Iran’s crude exports.

Rather, it was just a series of performative airstrikes that carefully avoided the oil terminal. Perhaps the administration was mindful of what we mentioned here: Any major attack on Kharg would result in Tehran launching all-out attacks on the oil infrastructure of the Gulf sheikdoms.

Meanwhile, the president issued this pledge/plea on Saturday for other governments to send warships to escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

So far, the overwhelming response has been either polite “nos” or thunderous silence.

The Wall Street Journal cites “U.S. officials” as saying “multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships” through the Strait of Hormuz. However “the potential coalition members are still discussing whether those operations would begin before or after the war ends.”

Uhhh… Why would escorts be required once the war is over?

Before the president issued his plea, it appeared several governments were ready to cut their own deals with Tehran to ensure safe passage through the strait.

France and Italy both made overtures to the Iranian government last week, according to the Financial Times. Bloomberg reports India was talking with Tehran about ensuring safe passage for more than 20 tankers.

Meanwhile, CNN quotes a senior Iranian official as saying Tehran will allow a limited number of tankers to transit the strait as long as the cargo is traded in Chinese yuan.

The longer the strait remains closed, the more the vise tightens on global trade in oil, liquefied natural gas and fertilizer.

However — despite alarmist reports you might have seen on social media — Australia does not have only 14 days of gasoline remaining.

Instead, Australian Energy Minister Chris Bowen told reporters Saturday he was “pleased” to announce Australia had a supply good for… 37 days.

Along with 30 days’ worth of diesel and 29 days of jet fuel.

Australia’s “shadow” energy minister representing the opposition party accused Bowen of being “caught asleep at the wheel.” Bowen, for his part, says Australia’s fuel supply is stable; the only problem is rising demand thanks to “panic buying.”

As for the United States, fuel availability is not the issue — but price is.

“Americans are feeling it right now,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright conceded yesterday on NBC’s Meet the Press. “Americans will feel it for a few more weeks.”

(One wag on X likened it to “two weeks to flatten the curve.”)

Reassuring, huh?

Pressed for specifics, Wright said there’s “a very good chance” gasoline prices could drop back below $3 a gallon by summer. But in the meantime, AAA says the national average for a gallon of regular unleaded this morning is $3.72.

Meanwhile, here’s the take from a self-described pro-MAGA podcaster…

The replies were scathing — many of them pointing out oil is a globally traded commodity and that a supply shock halfway around the world will result in the United States and Canada exporting more crude and refined products to customers that need it.

Or as GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan put it, “Do home prices only rise for 2% of houses when the housing market tightens?” (Not a perfect analogy, but good enough under the circumstances.)

Economic realities notwithstanding, we can’t rule out the possibility the Trump administration will impose price controls — leading to shortages and 1970s-style gas lines. We’ll keep an ear to the ground.

➢ As for the oil price, it opened up as the new trading week began last night. But after pushing past $100 around 4:00 a.m. EDT, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate has been moving steadily down — $95.63 at last check.

Rickards: State of the War

“At a strategic level, this war is a failure for the U.S. On its own terms, Iran is winning: surviving to fight another day,” says Paradigm’s macroeconomics authority Jim Rickards.

“The strait is closed, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains intact and there is no popular uprising,” he summed up in a briefing for Strategic Intelligence readers on Friday.

“U.S. attacks on Tehran have united the Iranian people in a nationalist fervor that transcends political differences. Far from fomenting rebellion, the U.S. attack has unified the enemy.”

[Remember how U.S. troops in Iraq a generation ago were supposed to be greeted with candy and flowers?]

“Regime change now requires a boots-on-the-ground invasion of Tehran — and that is not happening.

“Military strategy distinguishes between vertical escalation — two sides exchanging progressively more powerful weapons — and horizontal escalation, which means widening the battlespace, drawing in new parties and driving wedges between allies,” Jim continues.

“Iran has chosen the latter, and wisely so. It cannot match the U.S. weapon-for-weapon. Instead, it has attacked Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iraq — justifying the strikes by pointing to the U.S. bases those countries host. Turkey, a NATO member, has also been targeted.

“What started as a war involving only three countries now involves 10 or more. The economic fallout has spread to India, China and Russia. This strategy creates divisions among affected nations and generates international pressure on the U.S. to end the war.

“It is a brilliant, relatively low-cost approach — and it is puzzling why U.S. strategists did not see it coming…

“World leaders will soon face a stark choice: Surrender to Iran, watch the economy crumble or drastically escalate the war.

“Markets are not prepared for any of these outcomes — but one of them is coming.”

Let’s turn our attention elsewhere…

It’s Woodstock! It’s the Super Bowl! (And It’s Happening Now)

Is it the “Woodstock” of AI or the “Super Bowl” of AI?

It goes by both names and it’s underway today in San Jose, California — Nvidia’s annual GTC gathering. GTC is short for “GPU Technology Conference,” zeroing in on the graphics processing units that have proven to be so enormously useful for AI.

“It's the premier global AI event where developers, researchers and business leaders explore what's actually happening in AI,” says Paradigm tech investing pro Ray Blanco — a key member of James Altucher’s team.

“The timing couldn’t be better,” Ray tells us. “Last month Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said, “The demand for tokens in the world has gone completely exponential’.

“The data backs it up: AI usage is going parabolic. Even ancient, six-year-old Nvidia GPUs are sold out, and rental prices are rising fast.

“What changed? AI agents,” Ray says.

Agents are a revolutionary use of AI far beyond the chatbots you’re used to by now. With AI agents, you can instruct your computer to perform tasks, answer routine emails and so on. In particular, “agentic” AI is capable of building software for you, no coding required.

That’s the reason many of the software stocks got smoked a few weeks ago. “Open-source AI agent OpenClaw launched in November,” Ray says. “Unlike chatbots (human-paced, eight hours/day), agents run 24/7 until tasks are done.”

For his part, Ray says the names set to thrive from this trend include Nebius Group (NBIS) and CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV).

But agentic AI is just one topic on the agenda — and those two names are just a small sample of what’s on offer — when James Altucher and team host a live event tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. EDT…

Other topics James says he and his crew will tackle: “The rise of autonomous AI. The space economy. Where I think the next real opportunities are hiding right now. All of it.

“I genuinely believe the next 12 months in AI and tech could create more wealth than the previous five years combined. Miss Tuesday and you’re navigating 2026 without a map.”

Don’t expect a sales pitch for any of James’ publications — just two hours (probably more) of insights, revelations and tickers.

Again, it all happens tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. EDT. You can check out James and crew’s agenda at this link. Watch your inbox for a link to the live event tomorrow, shortly before it gets underway.

As for markets today, tech is leading the major U.S. stock indexes higher.

At week’s end on Friday the S&P 500 was approaching its 200-day moving average. But at last check the index is up over 1% on the day and back over 6,700. The Dow’s gain is a hair weaker, the Nasdaq’s stronger.

➢ Congratulations to Paradigm Mastermind Group readers who booked a 551% gain on Friday with Credo Technology Group — a fantastic win in just under two years.

For the moment, gold has lost its grip on the $5,000 level — the bid $4,989. But silver is holding onto $80.

Bitcoin is holding the line on $73,000 and Ethereum is approaching $2,300. “If Bitcoin can push into the 73s and, most importantly, hold the move, it has a great shot at shooting back into the mid-80K range very quickly,” says Trading Desk editor Greg Guenthner.

Venezuela Gold Mystery, Solved (Sort Of)

We have partial answers to the many questions we posed on Thursday about the purported $100 million in Venezuelan gold that was shipped to the United States.

The mystery began when Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, fresh from a visit to Venezuela, told Fox News “$100 million worth of gold came from Venezuela to the U.S., both for industrial purposes and other commercial uses.”

Among the questions we posed: Which companies are getting this gold? How is the administration choosing them? Are they paying a discounted price? And who’s getting paid?

If the New York Post is to be believed, some of the gold was put on display a week ago Friday at the White House.

“A couple of dudes in dark suits were seen in the hallways of the White House wheeling what looked like a cart loaded up with gold bars,” says an article citing “well-placed sources.”

“These were those massive, Fort Knox-style gold bars — like a foot long each. The kind you’ve seen in a James Bond flick. The kind that, if you were planning to lift one, you’d need to grab it with both hands and get your back into it.”

The article fleshes out some of the details we were wondering about: “Burgum had just finalized a series of licensing deals, including one with Minerven, a Venezuelan state-owned gold mining company. Minerven has agreed to sell physical gold to the Trafigura Group (known as Trafi), which trades gold on U.S. markets…

“The big bars were getting carted around 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. as a sort of trophy…”

The White House wouldn’t confirm the account, saying only, “This historic gold deal between Trafi and Venezuela had been in the works at President Trump’s direction.”

Now you know. Sort of…

Mailbag: “Negativity”

I wasn’t sure what kind of response I’d get after my extensive reply to a reader “negativity” complaint in Friday’s edition.

The atmosphere is fraught right now. I mean, Tucker Carlson is being accused on social media of treason for crying out loud. (More about that later this week…)

But the pushback was minimal, and civil. The most vigorous response was this…

“Does any American really believe the USA should have kicked the can down the road for another 47 years or maybe send billions of dollars to Iran like the Obama-Biden administration did?

“During WWII many Americans did without many things and paid more for many things for years to rid the world of tyrants and murderous peoples.

“Maybe you can remind our readers of these very patriotic Americans of our past. Because of them, we have what we have today. Many Americans today need sorely to be reminded.

“Freedom isn't completely free.

“Also, it's been a very, very SHORT time thus far… and so much has been Accomplished!!!

“Be proud of and back all of our military ...especially the ones deployed overseas.”

Dave responds: Just once, I’d like to see someone who talks about the history of the United States and Iran the last 47 years address what happened in the 26 years previous.

It’s one reason — maybe the primary reason — that everyday Iranians are rallying around the flag amid U.S.-Israeli airstrikes.

“Your response to the reader’s ridiculous comment and remarks about ‘running your mouth’ was spot-on big-time!” another reader counters.

“Thank you for clarifying and articulating what the Founders wrote and intended from documentation found in The Federalist Papers and elsewhere, and for including the pertinent messaging from Ron Paul ( a true patriot who also understands the Founders’ intentions by using the simple methodology of ‘originalism’ that Justice Scalia mentioned frequently). Thank you much for articulating the truth!!

“It would also be great to have you further elaborate more on the constitutional references to the Founders’ intentions on fiat money, the Federal Reserve and federal income tax. I think many Paradigm readers would benefit greatly so they understand why these are actually immoral and how resulting debt and forever inflation (that never goes away, just gets built in) is the immorality harvest of the immoral seeds sown (income tax is as much slavery and as immoral as slavery, by taking a substantial part of a person’s output and then devaluing what is left on top of that with fiat money essentially destroying generation wealth-building).

“It would also put into perspective for readers, the $20 Gold Eagle and $1 silver dollar that were both equal in paper money to their metal value (about one ounce each) in 1910, prior to the destruction of the Constitution by Woodrow Wilson in 1913 (reference Ron Paul's ‘Repeal 1913’ agenda and commentary) and that the sound money relationship is really a 20:1 ratio.

“All Paradigm readers may not know all the facts around these topics. I am sure you would articulate this superbly like you did the freedom of speech issue!”

“Thank you again!”

Dave: Well, it’s complicated.

Recall that Alexander Hamilton saw to it that the United States was saddled with a central bank even before the Bill of Rights was added to the Constitution. He also said, “A national debt, if it is not excessive, to us will be a national blessing.”

But you raise a great point about the debasement of the currency. Not enough people understand it or appreciate it — even if they live with the consequences every day! I’ll give it some thought…