Limbo

A Ceasefire Until…

So… a day later we’re still in limbo.

After we hit “send” on yesterday’s edition, the president announced he was unilaterally extending the ceasefire with Iran “until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.”

In other words, he did not set an expiration date — instead putting the ball in Tehran’s court.

The response from the adviser to Iran’s parliament speaker was You do you, Donald.

“The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. And Trump will continue the blockade on Iranian ports and ships,” our Jim Rickards says on the Paradigm mobile app.

“The danger hasn’t passed yet. Economic damage will continue to pile up until a deal is reached. And a return to fighting remains possible.”

By the way, that U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and ships is looking shaky. The Financial Times — citing figures from the cargo tracking group Vortexas — reports that at least 34 “Iran-linked” oil tankers have bypassed the blockade since it began nine days ago.

Not surprising. U.S. warships enforcing the blockade are spread thin, not least because they’re staying out of the range of Iranian anti-ship missiles and drones.

At the same time, Iranian forces have seized two containerships that tried to run Tehran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

For the moment, however, Trump has what he wants — and the Iranian side does not.

When the ceasefire came into effect a couple of weeks ago, Quincy Institute executive VP Trita Parsi projected a possible outcome — “no deal, no sanctions relief, no nuclear compromise, no return to war, while Iran continues to control the strait.”

Which is where we stand more or less this morning. “Not a stable situation,” Parsi tweets now, “but one in which Trump pockets the central thing he sought — exiting the war — while Iran is bereft of the main thing it was looking for: sanctions lifting.”

“The current status quo places a greater burden on the Islamic Republic than on Washington,” agrees Arta Moeini from the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy — “a pressure that will only intensify so long as the blockade persists.”

Which means as he sees it the status quo can’t hold indefinitely: “It's only a matter of time before Iran attempts to impose new regional costs of its own to break the U.S. blockade, a move that would likely collapse the fragile ceasefire entirely.”

So where does this all leave the markets?

Markets Today: Oil up, Stocks up Too

Because the tension level remains “elevated,” oil futures actually rose despite Trump’s announcement. West Texas Intermediate is up over 3.5% at last check — two pennies shy of $93.

That’s still vastly below the real-world price of “wet” barrels that we continue to spotlight — frequently in the neighborhood of $130.

Key point: May oil futures expire today. Keen observers of the oil market are noting that “open interest” — the total number of futures contracts that are not yet closed, expired or settled — have totally collapsed relative to a typical expiration day.

But that real-world shortage continues to manifest in unlikely supply-chain snags.

From the BBC: “The boss of the world's biggest condom maker, Karex, says the firm will raise its prices by up to 30% or possibly more if the Iran war continues to disrupt supplies of the raw materials [derived from oil] used in its products.”

Karex, based in Malaysia, makes 5 billion condoms a year and supplies major global brands including Durex and Trojan.

“The good news,” one wag quips on X, “is we’re going to make a dent in the fertility crisis.”

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is back to its record levels set last Friday — offsetting all of yesterday’s and Monday’s losses.

At last check the index is up nearly 0.9% to 7,125. The Nasdaq’s gains are stronger, the Dow’s a little weaker.

Among the big movers today is Spirit Airlines: The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is set to loan $500 million to Spirit in exchange for warrants that could give Uncle Sam a substantial stake in the firm. In bankruptcy, Spirit is a thinly traded penny stock with the ticker FLYYQ — and it’s up over 32% on the day.

[Just in: Life comes at you fast. Make that 538%!]

Meanwhile, congratulations are in order for members of the Paradigm Mastermind Group. Yesterday they took profits of 220% in just under two years on Lincoln Educational Services. And today they bagged 309% in just under a year on Amkor Technology.

Forget the day-to-day stock market movement: Where do we stand in the big picture?

Paradigm senior investment director Enrique Abeyta passes along an updated chart from the folks at Bespoke Investment Group. It tracks the Nasdaq Composite’s performance during the dot-com boom and the current AI boom.

It sets the starting point of the dot-com boom with the launch of the Netscape web browser in December 1994. And it sets the start of the current boom with the launch of ChatGPT 3.5 in November 2022.

Here’s the latest chart, updated to reflect the volatility set off by the Iran war.

Interesting. If history rhymes, the volatility brought on by the war is analogous to the volatility brought on in 1998 by Russia’s debt default and the resulting collapse of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management.

Speaking of “analogues,” Enrique passes along a spooky stat from Bespoke: The S&P 500 is up 17.8% so far during Trump’s second term. The index was up 17.6% at this time in 2018 during Trump’s first term.

➢ Checking the dollar prices for non-dollar assets: Gold is nearly flat after yesterday’s beat-down at $4,734 but silver is up over a buck to $77.67. The real action is in crypto: Bitcoin is on the verge of $79,000 for the first time since early February and Ethereum is approaching $2,400.

Scarce Electricity and the Uranium Boom

And now a shocking development in our ongoing chronicle of the super-stressed U.S. power grid.

In 2022 we started warning about the potential for rolling blackouts in some regions of the country. In 2024, long before the mainstream caught on, we warned that AI data centers would become “the monster that ate the power grid.”

Here’s the latest, courtesy of Paradigm natural-resources pro Matt Badiali: “The problem isn’t just that we aren’t adding new sources of electricity fast enough — it’s worse. The U.S. is actually going backward.

“The current administration killed somewhere around 30–35 gigawatts (GW) of new wind power. This includes TotalEnergies’ (NYSE: TTE) windfarms: 4 GW offshore North Carolina and New York, 10 GW offshore Virginia and 22 GW on federal lands.

“Those are just a few examples of projects specifically killed by new legislation. Companies shelved or delayed another 266 GW (about 1,891 projects). That was due to tax credit rollbacks, permitting freezes and funding clawbacks.

“I don’t care what your political position is… we need electricity. All electricity. Give me solar. Give me wind. Give me coal. Hell, give me a hamster on a wheel…

“Because if we don’t have it, we ALL will pay much higher prices.”

Oh, and those stories you might have seen about how rising gasoline prices are spurring renewed demand for electric vehicles?

“Batteries aren’t power sources,” Matt reminds us. “They must be filled up… with electrons instead of gasoline. The competition for those electrons will grow. Demand from data centers, artificial intelligence and EVs are all soaring.”

How to play it? “Nuclear energy is one of the principal areas of energy growth,” says Matt.

“According to the World Nuclear Association, total capacity could reach 1,446 GWe (gigawatts electric) by 2050. That’s up from 398 GWe today.”

The scare from the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011 throttled the nuclear industry. Dozens of reactors were shut down across Europe. Nuclear energy made up over 15% of the global electricity mix in 2000… and less than 9% today.

“The declining demand worked its way down to the uranium miners,” says Matt. The capital fled. Production flattened out. In 2025, there was a 5.4 million pound supply deficit. By 2040, supply will hit 201 million pounds, up just 14% from 2025. Demand, however, will grow to 397 million pounds, up 118% from 2025.

“This is a classic setup for higher uranium prices. And as with most mined commodities, the industry can’t fix this before those prices go up.”

This week Matt recommended an especially attractive uranium producer.for his Real Wealth Insider readers.

If you prefer to go the more conservative ETF route, there’s always the Global X Uranium ETF (URA). [Dave’s disclosure: I own some URA.]

Crypto Fraud, Strait of Hormuz Edition

Go figure: Crypto fraudsters are making hay from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

As you might be aware, the Iranian government is keen to collect tolls through the Strait of Hormuz — $2 million for the biggest oil tankers. And as you might have heard from colleague Chris Campbell at Altucher Confidential, that toll is payable in Bitcoin.

So there’s your context for this Reuters story…

Fraudulent messages promising safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for cryptocurrency have been sent to some shipping firms with vessels stranded west of the waterway, said Greek maritime risk management firm Marisks…

Marisks on April 21 issued an alert warning shipowners that unknown actors, claiming to represent the Iranian authorities, had sent shipping firms a message demanding transit fees in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin or Tether, for clearance.

On Monday it seems the captain of an Indian-flagged ship tried to transit the strait, believing he’d ponied up the fee to the Iranian authorities on behalf of his employer.

He learned the hard way he had not… when the ship was hit by Iranian gunfire. He quickly turned tail.

For the record, the number of ships transiting the strait on any given day recently is in the single or low double digits. Before Washington and Tel Aviv launched the war on Feb. 28, it averaged 120–140.

[Update: The plot thickens. An official in India’s Ministry of Ports denies the Reuters report. “We spoke with the owner of the vessel… and he confirmed that it is fake news and no such incident had happened.”]

Mailbag: Lowering the Temperature

“Dave, glad to see you received a lot of supportive responses,” a reader writes after yesterday’s extended mailbag edition.

“I think my favorite is the person who said he didn't remember subscribing to any of the reader's emails, LOL. It's your platform and I am thankful because it makes me know and think about subjects in a way I wouldn't otherwise.

“I think a lot about so-called TDS — especially when it comes to you being attacked by both ‘sides’ — and have come to the conclusion that TDS is not one-sided. It is suffered by both the people who think Trump is Hitler and can't do anything right and the people who think he is their savior and can't do anything wrong. Same disease, different symptoms :)

“Keep doing your thing and if it ruffles feathers, then that probably means you are doing something right.”

“Reading your received responses yesterday, I just want to say that I am quite happy to be included among what is shown to be a well-mannered and informed group of grateful readers,” says another.

“I well appreciate the scope and intensity of your daily inputs and the effort that goes into sharing them widely for such an affordable price.

“You have added greatly to my personal perspective and enjoyable retirement of almost 30 years. Just your recommendation of Neil Howe’s books has been a great source of personal reflection and understanding.”

“Hey Dave, keep up the great work,” says a third. “I have cut back drastically on the daily emails I receive. Yours is the only one I look forward to reading. Love your unique perspective. I feel fully informed after reading it.

“Regarding the division among us, it is created by the evil forces. Please remember, everyone, we need a revolution, not a civil war.”

“Thank you for the work you do and your 5 Bullets, Dave,” says our final correspondent today.

“There is just so much noise and banter out there that has no substance. You obviously do and have done over the years a lot of digging and musing that just gives a different perspective.

“And I think in such a nutso time as this that really helps people see the picture in a different light. Always look forward to what you have to say.

“And Paradigm Press and the services I’ve chosen have absolutely given my Roth a serious boost because of the thoughtful, expert advice from many different angles. But it’s also fun, interesting and thoughtful.”

Dave responds: Thank you, sir, for affirming why we do what we do.

And thanks to everyone who corresponded in recent days — especially the self-described longtimers who don’t usually write. It’s restored both my faith in humanity… and my conviction that this e-letter has the most informed and engaged readership in the business!