Who Is Still Undecided?

Election ad Nauseam

With just six days standing between us and Election Day 2024, relentless 24/7 campaign ads are ramping up in key battleground states and beyond.

For instance, God help you if you’re among the 300,000 eligible Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania!

Even before the fiasco at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, “Harris had rolled out her economic proposals for the Puerto Rican community at stops in Philadelphia, including at a Puerto Rican restaurant,” CNBC says.

But after Trump’s opening act, insult comedian Tony Hinchcliffe disparaged an entire group of people on a national stage, Team Harris launched a “30-second spot [on] platforms like YouTube TV, Hulu and Snapchat,” targeting Puerto Rican voters.

Meanwhile, the Hispanic vote is more critical than ever. With 36.2 million Hispanics eligible to vote in 2024, up from 32.3 million in 2020, this growing electorate poses a serious problem for… Harris?

“Trump seems to be making inroads with Hispanic voters,” CNN says. “In fact, he seems to be on his way to doing better with this group than any GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.”

According to pollster Nate Silver, Trump leads Harris in Pennsylvania — 48.4% to 47.9%.

In Paradigm’s home state of Maryland, the Senate race between Angela Alsobrooks and former Gov. Larry Hogan has turned into a “verbal slugfest,” according to local NBC affiliate WBAL.

In recent ads, Alsobrooks’ team has positioned this race as crucial for preserving Democratic control of the Senate, arguing that a vote for Hogan would effectively transfer power to Republicans.

Meanwhile, Hogan’s campaign has chosen a surprising tactic: encouraging Maryland voters to split their ticket. “This isn’t complicated,” says an ad spot (running ad nauseam), “Harris and Hogan.”

How’s Hogan faring? Recent polling conducted from October 17–22 among likely Maryland voters shows Alsobrooks leading with 52% support while Hogan trails at 40%. (The joint Washington Post/UMD poll also shows Libertarian candidate Mike Scott capturing 4% of the vote.)

Which is virtually unchanged from a poll conducted in September. “Given the ad volume over the last few weeks, I'm somewhat surprised that the overall margin is about the same,” says University of Maryland Professor Michael Hanmer. Chalk it up to the law of diminishing returns…

Touching briefly on those October poll numbers, some quick mental math shows that 4% of Maryland “likely voters” surveyed still haven’t made up their minds. 

Even amid the nationwide media blitz, a small — but potentially influential —segment of voters lingers: the undecideds.

This slight number of voters, comprising about 6% to the low teens of the electorate, could ultimately sway the presidential election’s outcome. Here’s a profile…

• Undecided voters tend to be younger, be less educated and have lower incomes compared with the general electorate. They are also more likely to be Black or Latino, and slightly more men than women

• “Undecided voters are more likely to split their tickets than other voters,” says Good Authority. But that might not be as statistically meaningful as it sounds: About 20% of undecideds split their ticket in 2020, “compared to just 5% split-ticket voting among the rest of the electorate”

• This group of voters tend to distrust candidates’ character and suitability for the highest office in the land. This election cycle? Undecideds express concern about Trump’s honesty as well as Harris’ inexperience.

Finally, undecided voters report that their questions pertaining to the economy, immigration and health care haven’t been sufficiently answered.

To win undecided voters then, campaigns would do well to combine a) personalized economic messaging with b) emotional connection. Which Harris had an opportunity to do last night in Washington, D.C. before a crowd, supposedly, 75,000 strong.

“Harris spoke for just over 30 minutes Tuesday evening at the Ellipse, the same spot where Trump spoke to his supporters and encouraged them to march to the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021,” The Hill notes.

Heh, symbolic much?

Plus, attorney Harris framed her comments at the rally as a legal indictment of Donald Trump. But according to one of our favorite independent journalists…

At this point, the question is — and think about this as you’re bombarded with campaign ads in the election’s closing days — what could a campaign say now to persuade a voter who still hasn’t made up his mind?

For what it’s worth: “Over the past two election cycles, undecided voters have clearly favored Donald Trump,” Good Authority says. “Trump won undecided voters by about a 20-point margin.”

Also for what it’s worth? “Ultimately, undecided voters tend to matter only in the closest of elections, and 2024 seems poised to be just such an election.”

The Most Magnificent Megacap?

“Google [has] a lovely setup for a post-earnings rally should the numbers impress investors,” said Paradigm’s chart hound Greg Guenthner yesterday, before Google’s earnings announcement later in the afternoon.

With earnings per share clocking in at $2.12 and revenue at $88.27 billion, the company far exceeded consensus estimates for the quarter ending Sept. 30.

“I love springboard plays like this,” Greg reported. “GOOG has already started to bounce. And could quickly run back to those all-time highs near $200 following a positive earnings reaction.”

At last check, GOOG shares are up over 6% today, with plenty of room to run up to $200.

On Thursday afternoon, Apple will issue its own earnings report…

“AAPL is a beast, and arguably the most magnificent of the seven megacaps,” Greg says. “The company has exceeded earning estimates since 2022 — no small feat! And it has crushed its past four earnings reports,” he adds.

“Did I mention the chart is a thing of beauty? Check it out…

“The stock is up more than 85% off its early 2023 lows. And despite a maximum drop of approximately 30% during its most recent drawdown, the stock continues to power higher off each and every one of those lows.

“AAPL shares are coiled tightly just below all-time highs. Barring a major negative surprise or a seismic shift in the market, it’s difficult to imagine this stock failing to post new highs in the weeks ahead,” Greg forecasts.

Taking a look at the rest of the market today, among the major U.S. stock indexes, the Big Board is faring best: up 0.25% to 42,340.

At the same time, the S&P 500 and techie Nasdaq are both up about 0.15% to 5,840 and 18,740 respectively.

Turning to the commodities complex, crude is up 2.10% to $68.64 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Precious metals are flashing green and red. While gold is locking in another record high, up 0.60% to $2,798.90 per ounce, silver is down 1%, still over $34.

The crypto market is likewise split. Ethereum is up 2% to about $2,700. Even though Bitcoin is down 1%, the flagship crypto — at $72,000 — is at a level not seen since the summer.

This morning, the Commerce Department issued its guess on third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) — an annualized 2.8%, lower than Wall Street’s anticipated 3.0%.

The LA Times reports: “The growth was a slight deceleration from the 3% annualized increase in the second quarter, but U.S. economic activity continued to far outpace almost every other developed nation.”

Hmm, you think they’re trying to tell us something?

“While the U.S. economy may be the envy of the world, polls have consistently shown Americans are mired in a sour, griping mood when it comes to the economy,which may prove to be a significant factor in the election.” [Emphasis ours]

OMG, I have a headache from being beaten over the head…

In other words: “Shut your piehole! The economy is fine. Any personal experience to the contrary is purely coincidental.”

Google’s Viral Sensation

“In September, a Google blog quietly announced a new feature its engineers built for its NotebookLM tool,” says Paradigm’s AI expert James Altucher.

“Nobody paid much attention — at first,” he continues. “The feature seemed simple: Drop in any document and two AI hosts would turn it into a podcast-style conversation.

“But as users began experimenting, they discovered something extraordinary…

• “These weren't the robotic voices they'd come to expect from AI
• These hosts had personality
• They stumbled over words with natural ‘ums’ and ‘likes’
• They got excited about interesting details
• The internet exploded.

“Suddenly, social media was flooded with AI-generated podcasts about everything imaginable. The viral success took even Google by surprise.

“More importantly, it showed that Google hadn't lost its ability to innovate,” James says. “And this might just be the beginning…

“Sources say Google is preparing to launch Gemini 2.0 in December, going head-to-head with OpenAI's next major release.

“The company is also reportedly working on ‘Project Jarvis,’ an ambitious AI tool that can automate web-based tasks like booking flights or researching products.

“While Google hasn’t publicly commented on these projects, the success of NotebookLM has changed the narrative.”

James concludes: “After years of stumbles, Google has shown it can still capture the public's imagination with groundbreaking AI technology.”

An Energy Reality Check

NextEra Energy's CEO John Ketchum emphasizes the growing demand for electricity in the U.S., projecting a sixfold increase in power needs over the next 20 years.

This surge is largely driven by the expansion of data centers, which are expected to add around 460 terawatt hours of new electricity demand — at an annual growth rate of 22% from 2023–2030.

To address this rising demand, NextEra is focusing on renewable energy projects, including solar and wind facilities. However, Ketchum points out that nuclear energy must also play a role.

• The nation will need an additional 900 gigawatts of generation capacity by 2040. But even if all potential nuclear plants could be recommissioned, they would only satisfy less than 1% of that demand.

Nonetheless, NextEra is evaluating the possibility of recommissioning the Duane Arnold Energy Center in Iowa, which has been offline since 2020.

“And the Department of Energy has finalized a $1.52 billion loan to Holtec International to restart the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan that would supply power to electric cooperatives in the Great Lakes region,” says Corridor Business Journal.

A Luxury Brand Has Lost the Plot

Italian fashion house Moschino has whipped up a frenzy with its latest creation: a £3,730 ($4,852) clutch… that looks like a bunch of damn celery.

Courtesy: Moschino, The Daily Mail

“The original accessory, titled the 'Sedano Bag,' is made out of nappa leather and is described by the brand as a 'maxi celery-shaped clutch with a digital print that has a three-dimensional effect,’” the Daily Mail says.

“Its unique shape represents the symbol of Moschino's irreverent spirit,” the company adds.

But in a cheeky response, bargain grocer Aldi is offering its luxury “dupe.” Namely, a real bunch of celery…

Well played.

Take care! We’ll be back with another 5 Bullets tomorrow.