Trading… Without the Stress

“Why I Quit Investing”

“I don’t care if the market rises or falls this week, next week or next year,” says Paradigm trading pro Greg Guenthner.

“Gunner” and I have been colleagues for over 16 years now. I’ve witnessed firsthand his transformation from “investor” to “trader” — a metamorphosis that’s benefited legions of satisfied readers.

“I considered myself an ‘investor’ in the early days of my career,” Greg wrote recently.

“But the Great Financial Crisis convinced me to master the true forces powering the markets, sparking a quest that led me to classical charting, technical analysis and showing anyone who will listen how they can learn to think like a trader… and change their life.”

But what’s a trader, anyway?

“You might think of a caffeine-addled maniac, frantically mashing his keyboard as he stares at a wall of computer monitors,” he answers. “But this couldn’t be further from the truth. I love the market because of the freedom it offers to anyone who desires to learn and trade. Sitting at a computer all day doesn’t sound like freedom to me.”

We all have limited time. Greg would rather spend his time watching his three kids grow up.

“You don’t have to tie yourself to a glowing screen in a dark room to trade. The vast majority of successful traders in the long term aren’t even day traders. In fact, some of the most successful traders I know are only buying or selling a couple times a week — sometimes even less.

“Trading isn’t about time frames. It’s about mindset,” Greg clarifies.

“This doesn’t mean you have to bury your head in the sand and avoid any type of news or discussion about economics, the Fed, valuations or any other market narratives floating around. Quite the opposite! I’m actively engaged with market news and events. And just like any other human, I have my own thoughts and opinions on these subjects.

“But because I think like a trader, I’ve learned to compartmentalize this information and only trade what’s happening in front of my face.”

As a result, “I don’t care if the market is trending higher or lower,” he goes on.

“I’m not a bull or a bear. I’m simply taking advantage of opportunities when they present themselves — long or short.”

As the market rallied during June and July, Greg’s Trading Desk readers pulled in gains of 99% on Uber in just 11 days… 192% on the oil-services name Transocean… and a staggering 439% on the electric truck maker Rivian.

And when the market rolled over in August and September, his readers pulled in even more profits betting against the chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (102% gains) and the crypto miner Marathon Digital Holdings (131%).

“If you’re thinking like a trader, you’ve prepared for every scenario,” he says. “The result is a trading account that consistently grows — whether the market is trending up, down or sideways.”

Sounds intriguing… but you’re still not sure this approach is right for you?

Well, you’re invited to join Greg’s LIVE interactive webcast — where he’ll share his next top trade of the week. This event is FREE — and we won’t pitch you on his premium trading advisory at the end. This is strictly a get-your-feet-wet opportunity so you can decide whether Greg’s approach to trading is something you want to explore further.

Follow this link and you can see Greg’s Top Trades LIVE, tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. EST.

Microsoft’s AI Chess Move?

What if this whole drama surrounding Sam Altman is a ploy by Microsoft to buy OpenAI on the cheap?

Maybe you heard the news: Late Friday, the board of privately held OpenAI — the company behind ChatGPT — gave co-founder Sam Altman his walking papers. Exactly what the falling-out was all about remains murky.

Several of OpenAI’s investors revolted and demanded Altman’s reinstatement. Yesterday, Altman returned to OpenAI’s San Francisco headquarters to negotiate terms of his return with the board — but those talks broke down by last night and the board named an interim CEO, former Twitch CEO Emmett Shear.

Overnight brought word that Altman would join Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team.

Microsoft happens to be OpenAI’s biggest investor — holding a 49% stake. The fancy new AI-enabled version of Microsoft’s Bing search engine is based on OpenAI technology.

This morning brings word that more than 500 OpenAI employees — close to two-thirds of the workforce — are threatening to resign if Altman isn’t reinstated.

What if this saga ends with Altman running OpenAI as a division of Microsoft — collecting a handsome windfall while many other OpenAI investors will feel cheated? But that’s only one of several possibilities as the drama continues to play out.

In the meantime, MSFT shares begin a new week up more than 1% on the day — and that’s giving a lift to the rest of the tech sector and the U.S. stock market overall.

The S&P 500 is up more than a third of a percent at 4,531 — the highest since early August. The Nasdaq is up stronger, the Dow’s gain more modest.

Bond yields are inching higher, the 10-year Treasury note at 4.47%. Precious metals are selling off, gold at $1,971 and silver at $23.47.

The only economic numbers of note today are the Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board — down another 0.8% in October, continuing a downtrend that’s been in place for over a year and a half. The Conference Board anticipates “a very short recession" soon — thanks to "elevated inflation, high interest rates and contracting consumer spending — due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments."

Crude is rallying to start the week — up nearly two bucks at last check to $77.80. Considering it was trading as low as $73 on Thursday, that’s impressive.

Hmmm… Over the weekend, a map started circulating online depicting the presumed locations of several dozen U.S. warships that have assembled in waters surrounding the Middle East. Of particular note was the presence of the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower in the Gulf of Oman.

Speculation is rife that the Eisenhower is about to transit the Strait of Hormuz and enter the Persian Gulf.

“If the Eisenhower enters the Persian Gulf,” writes the military analyst William Schryver, “it means the U.S. aims to put it in optimal position to strike Iran — or at least to raise the stakes of its bluff to a level that it will very likely be called.

“In other words, if the USS Eisenhower and its escorts enter the Persian Gulf, it will almost certainly compel an engagement with Iranian forces — likely ignited by an Iranian shoot-down of U.S. ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] assets.”

Schryver says such a U.S. gambit would be “an extraordinary blunder of hubris.” It would also send oil prices to highs we haven’t seen in well over a decade. Maybe that’s the risk premium going into crude today…

One Cheer for Argentina’s New President

Pardon me if I can’t get excited about a “libertarian” coming to power in a major Latin American country.

The results are in from Argentina’s presidential election: Self-described “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei wins the runoff with nearly 56% of the vote. His profane tirades resonated with a populace that’s had it with a 143% inflation rate.

The hot take from Western media is that he’s a “far-right outsider” (BBC) whose “brash style and embrace of conspiracy theories has parallels with Donald J. Trump” (New York Times).

Colleague Sean Ring celebrates Milei’s election in today’s Rude Awakening — while allowing that he might have an uphill climb pushing through his program of “reducing taxes, deregulation and encouraging entrepreneurship” along with “sound monetary policy.”

Me, I’m even less sanguine. In fact, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if Milei very quickly makes his peace with the Western establishment.

For one thing, he’s on record as wanting to pull Argentina out of the BRICS. Three months ago, Argentina was one of six new countries accepted for membership in a constellation of nations led by China and Russia that seek to undermine the U.S. dollar’s role as the globe’s reserve currency. (Indeed, Milei wants to dump the sickly peso and adopt the dollar as Argentina’s currency.)

Daniel McAdams — longtime aide to former Rep. Ron Paul, and now executive director of the Ron Paul Institute — says Milei is in tune with the priorities of Western elites.

“He’s absolutely on message when it comes to Ukraine and Russia,” McAdams said last summer. “He’s absolutely on message when it comes to China. He calls China assassins.”

And just to reinforce that he’s eager to be assimilated by the Washington-Brussels Borg, Milei has suggested his first foreign trip might be to Israel.

So yeah, I’ll be happy to be proven wrong. But I’m putting this on record today in case of a told-ya-so moment.

Besides… why the hell does Milei have a bio posted on the website of the World Economic Forum? Just asking!

Inflation-Adjusted Tax Numbers

For the record: The IRS has tweaked a few numbers for the coming tax year to account for inflation.

All of the tax brackets have been moved up by 5.4%. Thus, for example, a couple filing jointly will make the leap from the 24% tax bracket to the 32% tax bracket with an income of $383,901 — up from $364,201 during tax year 2023.

Also rising 5.4% is the standard deduction. For singles, it will be $14,600. For couples, $29,200.

Of more immediate concern — if you’re still in the workforce, anyway — is what you can set aside for retirement starting Jan. 1.

The annual 401(k) contribution limit rises by $500 to $23,000. However, catch-up contributions for those over 50 will remain unchanged at $7,500. Meanwhile, the IRA contribution limit rises $500 to $7,000, while the catch-up limit remains at $1,000.

Mailbag: Pentagon Penny-Pinching (???)... and Threats to Ban TikTok

“It is frustrating that the Pentagon failed another audit,” writes a reader who seems to have much familiarity getting Pentagon reimbursements — or trying to, anyway.

“They are amazing about clawing back $1.32 overpayments and refuse to refund you any bill that has sales tax on it when you travel for official business.

“Three years after PCSing (moving to a new assignment) they decided that I had not turned in a set of maintenance overalls. So they charged me the full cost of a new set even though the set they say I did not turn in is no longer authorized for use and they were going to dispose of them.

“We have to write memos explaining why we are turning in ammo we did not shoot and why we ordered ‘too much.’ We have to justify every dollar we want to spend on training in advance and account for all of it after.

“With all that, how can they not account for all the spending if all the lower levels are tracking every cent?”

“Really appreciate your reporting on censorship,” a reader writes after Friday’s edition — “and its uneven application to help mainstream narratives.”

Dave responds: The brouhaha last week has revived the calls in Washington to ban TikTok — which as I said last spring, is problematic on many, many levels.

TikTok and X-formerly-Twitter are the two major social media platforms used by millions of Americans that aren’t totally under the thumb of the deep state.

How long either of them survives in its present form is open to question. Given the looming 2024 elections, I’d give it months — not years.

Best regards,

 

 

 

 

Dave Gonigam
Managing editor, Paradigm Pressroom's 5 Bullets